The latest GOP effort to pick their opponent in a battleground House district is in NY-17 where they are now spending millions against Cait Conley, an army vet with a storied career who leads in the latest primary poll:

As we did Johnny Garcia and Rebecca Bennett Hopium is endorsing Conley today and asking everyone here to consider donating to her today. Our goal is to rush her at least $10,000 in the next few days.

More from this Courier New York story:

A super PAC calling itself “Progressive Champions PAC” is a Republican front group secretly working to influence a key New York Democratic primary, according to a new investigation by the newsletter Popular Information.

The group has reportedly spent $1.5 million on ads attacking Democratic congressional candidate Cait Conley in New York’s 17th District, where the June 23 primary is already underway.

NY-17 is only one of three House seats we are working to flip this cycle that Vice President Harris carried in 2024. So it is one of our most important pick up opportunities, something confirmed by Trump’s recent campaign event with Lawler, one of the very first campaign events Trump did for a House incumbent this year. It’s why we need to make sure our strongest candidate, the one Republicans don’t want to run against, wins next Tuesday.

Here’s an except from my discussion with Cait this morning:

Simon Rosenberg: How have you found the retail part of this? I mean, you’d been a soldier and a warrior for our country, you’d served in government, you know, going out and just being with people is sort of a new thing. I mean, how is that part of the campaign been for you?

Cait Conley: Simon, in so many ways it’s very similar to leading soldiers. Right, as an Army Officer, your job is to go out and to tackle problems, remove obstacles so that your team, your unit can achieve the mission, can be successful. I think it’s a similar mission and responsibility as an elected official. You’re still a public servant. You’re there to serve. And with that, your job is to go out there, and government’s job is to solve problems. And what I’ve felt over the last year plus on the campaign trail is hope. What people are craving is hope that America’s best days are still ahead of us and that America can work for working people. And to have leaders that they can believe in again, where the dysfunction can end and we can get back to doing the necessary work to solve people’s problems. And so in that way, it really is the same. It’s serving this country. It’s serving our community. It’s working hard to make sure America’s best days are still ahead of us.

Here are two of Conley’s most recent ads/videos……

“Our Future Is Worth Fighting For”

“LFG”

Here’s my recent post and interview on this illicit GOP campaign to pick our nominees:

We only get into primaries in special circumstances, and this is a special circumstance my friends. I hope you will join me in rallying for Cait Conley today, and taking the first step in turning this critical battleground district blue! - Simon

Transcript - Simon Rosenberg Interviews Cait Conley

Simon Rosenberg:
Welcome everyone. Simon Rosenberg, Hopium Chronicles, back with another great event today. Joining me is Cait Conley who's running in NY-17, working to flip one of the most flippable seats in the country. Cait, welcome. Thanks for being with us today.

Cait Conley:
Are you kidding me, Simon… thank you for having me and thank you for highlighting this race and the importance of this race for the country.

Simon Rosenberg:
Well, listen, we're going to get to the specifics of the primary in a second, but just tell us your story. Let's start by talking about, you know, your’e a fourth generation member of your community. You've got a pretty storied military record. Walk us through the story and why you decided to run for Congress.

Cait Conley:
Yeah, so, very proud come from blue collar roots that go back here in the district for generations. To my great grandfather and grandfather who worked in the Montrose Brickyard to my dad, born and raised in southern Dutchess County as a construction worker. To my mom, born in Peekskill, who worked for the U.S. Postal Service for 48 years, serving communities up and down the Hudson Valley. And so it is really the values that my family and my community instilled in me — of service and standing up for what's right, and doing the work that led me to pursue this path of public service.

I was a junior in high school when the terror attacks on 9/11 happened and our community got hit really hard. And so it was that — that inspired me to go off to West Point… that and Demi Moore and G.I. Jane, the 1997 classic… but went off, graduated the top of my class, and then went off and served 16 years as an active duty Army Officer. I deployed overseas six times. I had the privilege of a lifetime leading America's sons and daughters in defense of this nation… was one of the first women in special ops leadership.

And then [in] my last two years in the Army, I was actually at the White House. I served as a Director for Counterterrorism on the National Security Council staff — the first two years of Biden and then went off and served as a senior executive at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency where we work to ensure the nation's critical infrastructure security, including election security. I led the election security mission for 2024, pushed back on Trump's lies that 2020 was rigged or stolen.

And Simon, so much of why I'm doing this today is because after everything I've seen and done, to truly believe that the greatest threat to America and to our future is coming from within our own borders right now, you know, I'm watching the country that I was willing to die for, that I've lost countless friends defending, becoming something I barely recognize. And Mike Lawler's been complicit in that.

Simon Rosenberg:
Well, big time, actually. I mean who I think Mike Lawler was the first incumbent that Trump did a campaign event for, just in the last few months. That’s how important Mike Lawler is to Donald Trump — that he was the first person that he did in a campaign event for in this reelection period. So this is a deep ally and friend of Trump’s in one of these districts that we simply have to flip if we’re going to regain the House.

I'm having you on today because something's happened in the race. I mean, we traditionally don't get involved in primaries unless there are sort of special circumstances. And what's happened across the country in recent months is Republicans have decided that they're going to try to pick our candidates and not let the voters or the party pick our candidates. They've decided that they don't want you to be the nominee, even though you're ahead in the polls. They're now running ads against you to sort of degrade you and take you down. Can you talk a little bit about what's happened, and why all of a sudden it's important that Democrats rally behind you?

Cait Conley:
Simon, right now, Mike Lawler and MAGA Republicans are so scared to have Mike Lawler face me in November because they know I will beat him… that they stood up a super PAC to run $1.5 million in attack ads against me, lying about my service and record to try to influence and direct the outcome of this Democratic primary. I have to tell you, if they think they're going to intimidate me, they have no idea who they are messing with. And if they think they're going to change the hearts and minds of voters here in New York 17, They are grossly underestimating them.

Because voters here are going to see through it. And I will tell you, though, them doing this is a reflection of how much the Republicans know I will beat Mike Lawler in November. They are so desperate to try to avoid that, they're pouring everything they have to try to stop me here in the primary. But we're not going to let them succeed.

Simon Rosenberg:
And in fact, a poll came out yesterday. It showed you up by 10 points in the primary. And I want to just be as clear as I possibly can about this to the audience here.

Republicans would only spend money against a candidate like Cait, like they've been doing in other places around the country, if their research assessed that Cait would be beating, would beat Mike Lawler and would be much more likely to beat Mike Lawler. They're not doing this because they're bored or they have tons of money flowing around. They're doing this because they're scared of her and they don't want to run against her in November. So this is a confirmation that she is the strongest candidate, which is why we're rallying for her today and asking the Hopium community in an emergency fundraising drive that we're kicking off this afternoon to support her to make sure that she prevails in this primary, which is next week, right? Six days away.

Cait Conley:
Simon, I am so grateful because I will tell you right now, right, with the 1.5 million dollar infusion and attack ads in this final week they are out spending me and outreaching voters almost two to one. And so with that, now we’ve got to do as much as we can to tell voters the facts and to make sure that voters are making informed decisions, not being swayed by the political dirty tricks that MAGA is trying to throw at them. This is a fight I know I can win, but I can't win it alone. And so the help, Simon, is so appreciated because, as you can imagine, we plan for a lot of things in this campaign, but a $1.5 million attack campaign by MAGA Republicans was not one of them… And what we're being told is that is the floor, not the ceiling. So that number could keep going up and up…

We're not backing down. We're working hard to reach voters. But I will say defending democracy is a team sport and asking for folks’ help, putting the jersey on, getting out in the field with me because as you said, the voters of New York 17 and Democrats should know the truth and make their decisions based on that. Republicans shouldn't get to pick what Democrat they face in November and that's what they're trying to do.

Simon Rosenberg:
I will say, you know, they've spent more than 1.5 million in some of these other races. They spent 1.7 million against Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania… in the millions down in Texas. So, I think you're right. I mean, this is a sign of their desperation right… they know in the House the national tide is moving against them, and they're now trying to pick candidates in these key late primaries that they're much more likely to beat.

And so, you know, Cait, it's an affirmation for you. Even though you're a first time candidate, of the strength of your candidacy. And I want to ask one last thing before you go… I can't keep you too long… you're six days away from your election. You've got to be out with voters. How have you found the retail part of this? I mean, you'd been a soldier and a warrior for our country, you'd served in government, you know, going out and just being with people is sort of a new thing. I mean, how is that part of the campaign been for you?

Cait Conley:
Simon, in so many ways it's very similar to leading soldiers. Right, as an Army Officer, your job is to go out and to tackle problems, remove obstacles so that your team, your unit can achieve the mission, can be successful. I think it's a similar mission and responsibility as an elected official. You're still a public servant. You're there to serve. And with that, your job is to go out there, and government's job is to solve problems. And what I've felt over the last year plus on the campaign trail is hope. What people are craving is hope that America's best days are still ahead of us and that America can work for working people. And to have leaders that they can believe in again, where the dysfunction can end and we can get back to doing the necessary work to solve people's problems. And so in that way, it really is the same.

It's serving this country. It's serving our community. It's working hard to make sure America's best days are still ahead of us.

Simon Rosenberg:
Cait, thank you for the time today. I need to let you get back on the trail with your team. And I'm grateful. So everybody who's watching, please try to rally for Cait here in this final week. We don't often make requests in primaries like this, but this is a special case. We need to win this seat. Mike Lawler is important to the Republicans — this is why they're defending him, why Trump went there in his first campaign stop for a House candidate. He's an important member of their family, which is why it's important that we win this race. This is a critical opportunity for us, and thanks, for having the courage to serve your country in this new way. We're excited to help you win on Tuesday and then again in November.

Cait Conley:
Simon, thank you for having me on and thanks to everybody listening and thanks for considering a throw-in… we’ve got to fight back against the Republicans. And they just started this fight, but we're going to finish it. So thank you.

Simon Rosenberg:
Listen, everybody, if you enjoyed this interview please hit like so more people can see it, share it, and if you're not a Hopium subscriber, subscribe and please join us in rallying for Cait Conley today. We need to win this seat — the election is Tuesday. We can can do this, together. Thanks everybody.

Bio - Cait Conley, US House Candidate Running In NY-17

Cait Conley is a proud fourth-generation Hudson Valley native from working-class roots who understands the values of hard work and public service. Cait’s mom, born in Peekskill, was a postal worker for 48 years, serving communities throughout the Hudson Valley. Her dad, born and raised in Hopewell Junction, was a construction worker, and her grandfather and great-grandfather worked in the Montrose brickyard.

Cait was a junior at Pine Bush High School on 9/11 when she watched the Twin Towers fall. In that moment, she felt her calling to serve and protect. The next day, she started her application to the United States Military Academy at West Point, earning a congressional nomination from the late Congressman Maurice Hinchey and eventually graduating in the top 2% of her class. Cait was the first in her family to graduate from college and went on to earn master’s degrees from MIT and Harvard.

Cait has answered the call to serve our country time and again. She served for 16 years as an active-duty Army officer, deploying overseas six times to combat zones including Iraq and Afghanistan, leading America’s sons and daughters to keep our country safe. She broke barriers as one of the first women in Special Ops leadership, and was awarded three Bronze Stars for displaying “the highest degree of professionalism, sound judgment, and technical and tactical competence while conducting combat operations.”

Cait’s career as a public servant continued here at home, protecting our security and democracy while serving as the Director for Counterterrorism on the National Security Council at the White House (which led to her being banned from Russia). She later helped safeguard our critical infrastructure and election systems at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), defending our democracy by protecting the security and integrity of our elections and by standing up directly to Trump’s Big Lie about the 2020 election.

During her service at the White House and CISA, Cait worked directly with Congress on some of the most complex threats facing our country, including drafting and reviewing federal legislation to address critical national security issues and keep American families safe. She led efforts to strengthen the security and resilience of our nation’s critical infrastructure — from the water we drink, to the energy that powers our homes. From combat zones to the White House Situation Room, Cait’s been in the room where crucial decisions get made and has a proven track record of delivering for the American people. She’s the only candidate in this race who’s prepared to enter Congress on Day One and deliver results for NY-17.

Cait has put her life on the line to defend this country. Today, she looks around and sees a nation she barely recognizes, an administration abusing its powers to punish political opponents, a country being pushed in the wrong direction, chaos abroad, and reckless tariffs that are raising costs for hard-working families. The same politicians who created this mess won’t be the ones who fix it. She has the courage to do what’s right, the strength to fight and win against Donald Trump and his enablers like Mike Lawler, and the leadership to deliver results on Day One.

In NY-17, families are increasingly getting priced out, shut out of opportunities, and feeling left behind. Infrastructure is crumbling. Housing is unaffordable. And quality healthcare is out of reach for far too many.

Cait is not a lifelong politician or political operative. Throughout her career, she has been called upon to solve the toughest problems and deliver. And with the stakes this high, there’s no time for on-the-job training. That’s why Cait is running for Congress – to stop the talk and actually deliver on a better future for New Yorkers.

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Feeling all feisty, clever, and strong again from being around other heads of government at the G7 Trump lobbed this little grenade into the Senate at 3am this morning:

Here is how Punchbowl News explained what this means:

Senate GOP leaders wanted to get back in sync with President Donald Trump after weeks of public clashes. Quickly clearing two of the president’s high-profile nominations was a good place to start.

Trump has blown that up.

The president suddenly announced early Wednesday morning that he’s delaying his nomination of Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence until his pick for the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, James McDonald, is approved by the Senate. McDonald would be Clayton’s successor in the key Justice Department post. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) have to approve of the nominee for SDNY.

Clayton was set for a hearing today in the Senate Intelligence Committee to become director of national intelligence. Clayton’s quick confirmation was supposed to be the piece that unlocked a bipartisan deal to reauthorize FISA Section 702.

Clayton would supersede Bill Pulte, Trump’s close ally and FHFA director, as DNI.

Thanks to Trump’s bombshell, that won’t happen immediately, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune desperately hoped.

Trump — who is heading back to Washington today from the G7 meeting in France — also reiterated his new ask to get FISA passed: the SAVE America Act. This is a total no-go for Democrats and even some Republicans.

………..

What does all this mean? Trump is attacking Thune and top Senate Republicans — without naming them — over the Clayton-Pulte dispute. He’s putting pressure on Thune once again over eliminating the filibuster and blue slips for judicial nominations, two hallowed Senate traditions. He’s forcing the SAVE America Act — the Republicans’ photo ID and proof-of-citizenship bill — to the forefront of the Senate legislative agenda, even though there’s no way it can pass.

All this is a disaster for Thune.

Over the past several weeks, Trump has made his disputes with Senate Republicans a huge issue. Whether it’s the White House ballroom project, the “anti-weaponization fund,” Iran, or other issues, Trump seems to want to pick fights with Republicans as much as he does Democrats. It’s hurting the president, whether he cares or not.

Here’s how Trump entered the G7 meeting this morning. “I am the boss” he tells everyone. More feisty, clever, and strong (watch the video through to the end to see how submissive, spent, and slovenly he looked):

Meanwhile a remarkably swift consensus has formed in official Washington that the Iran “deal” is a far more a surrender and a geopolitical disaster for Trump and the United States:

We will see how the G7 meeting ends but so far the reports suggest Trump has played along what the other G7 countries wanted, not attacking them as he often does at these meetings and praising Russia. This feels like an emerging pattern in recent months as Trump declines physically and politically - he acts submissively around other powerful leaders when in their presence - Xi, Bibi, Putin, now the G7/Macron/Zelenskyy, even Iran in some comments these last few days - yields to their wishes and gets rolled. He loves playing the strongman on TV - “I am the boss” - but it is becoming increasingly impossible to hide the reality he is a weak, desperate, sundowning, addled old man whose powers are ebbing and his regime failing.

Listen to him describe his relationship with Egyptian strongman leader Sisi at the hotel - “He was in a hotel and I met him. And we fell in love, deeply in love.” OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Seriously what is it with Trump and strongmen?

As I’ve been writing this escalating war with the Republicans in the Senate is some of the most politically dangerous stuff I’ve seen since I’ve been in Washington. It feels a bit like punching down, a frustrated bully needing to get the little people in line but man oh man is he playing with fire here. He needs to the Senate to advance his agenda but also to protect him from accountability for this corruption and lawlessness this year and beyond. Senate Rs are sending up very clear warnings to Trump about the risks he is taking. Here’s the headline from that incredible interview Senator Cornyn did with the NYT last week. Trump clearly isn’t listening:

Additionally, Trump suffered another huge loss in a primary last night as his candidate lost in the Georgia gubernatorial primary to businessman Rick Jackson, an unexpected defeat that may also end up killing Georgia’s post-Callais redistricting effort that was supposed to begin today:

Trump did get his man in the Georgia Senate runoff last night, but so did we - very, very far right Mike Collins. Here’s a video the Ossoff campaign released last night (yes, they are ready!!!!):

So, to sum up:

• The Trump project is in deep shit here and everywhere

• He is looking more and more like a ridiculous big, blubbery baby man than the Super MAGA MAN he imagines himself to be

• His escalating and reckless war with the Republican Senate is doing even more damage to his political project, and is in this town further confirmation of his ebbing powers, growing desperation, and profound decline

• The World Cup is awesome

Paid subscribers will gather tonight to talk about all this to night at 7pm ET. Register here - we have lots to talk about people!

Some Things To Call Congress About This Week

• Yes to the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk

• Yes to making American oligarchs pay for Trump’s failed Iran war - not every day Americans

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton

• Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

Help Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better - A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 111 new people, on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

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Now, Let’s Get To Work, People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $777,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $78,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $19,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $104,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $85,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $1,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer

Winning Ohio - $159,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $6,700 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $594,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $122,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $186,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

On the ACA he estimates that somewhere between four and six million people will lose ACA coverage by the end of the year, driven both by the elimination of enhanced subsidies and by people who initially kept their coverage but simply cannot afford to maintain it month to month. For those who kept coverage, he estimates that costs have gone up roughly $1,500 per person per year between higher premiums and higher out of pocket expenses. As Charles tell us in the discussion:

of those 19 million or so who did manage to hold on to ACA coverage thus far… it’s not just a matter of their premiums going through the roof in many cases. It’s also their out-of-pocket expenses because what happened with a lot of people is they had to buy down… basically where you downgrade your coverage from, you know, a gold plan to silver, from silver to bronze, from a PPO to an HMO. Basically, you’re downgrading your coverage to a worse plan with worse coverage or worse network, whatever, in order to avoid or partially avoid being hit with those massive premium hikes. But now you have higher out of pocket costs, higher deductibles, higher co pays, maybe a worse network, etc.

On Medicaid, he pushes back on the Republican construct of "work requirements," arguing these are really "work reporting requirements" since most Medicaid enrollees already work. The real purpose of these new onerous requirements, he argues, is to make the paperwork so difficult that people give up and fall off the rolls, which is where some of the planned savings Republicans are banking on will come from - by shoving people off the program.

Gaba warns that the ACA may be heading toward what he calls a “half death spiral,” where the individual market does not collapse entirely, but effectively becomes a high risk pool serving only the sickest and most desperate, much like the broken state based high risk pools that existed before the ACA. He also flags that starting around September and October, tens of millions of Medicaid enrollees will begin receiving notices about coming changes that start in January, which he expects to create significant political and human shock in the days heading into the November elections. As reminder that the CBO projects 15 million people currently on Medicaid will lose their coverage in the coming years due to these barbaric cuts. The initial steps in that process will begin this September.

As we discuss, that tens and tens of people will lose their health insurance and tens and tens millions more who keep their insurance will see their costs rise, was a deliberate policy choice made to fund tax cuts for the wealthy. These cuts are falling hardest on farmers, rural communities, older working people, and anyone who is self employed or runs a small business. The weakening of the individual market will also make it harder for people to start new businesses, sapping some of the dynamism out of our economy, which of course benefits large, established corporations.

Republicans cut almost $1 trillion of out American health last summer, and we now have enough data to understand the impact it is having on families across the country this year. As expected it’s ugly, and it is going to get far, far worse in months and years to come. As we discussed with Colette Delawalla last week the willingness of MAGA to do direct material harm to the poorest and most powerless among us can be breathtaking, and very, very hard, when taken together, not to recognize as modern day eugenics.

For more:

• Visit Charles’ Main Site, ACA Signups, where he produces fresh analysis most days, and where he has lots of state by state data. Charles has a new Substack, and you can also follow him on Bluesky.

• What We Know So Far About 2026 ACA Marketplace Enrollment, Premiums, and Deductibles - Kaiser Family Foundation

This conversation is the latest in a series of discussions we’ve hosted here on the impact of Trump’s war on science, academia, and global and domestic public health. Some previous conversation:

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and great candidates to elect, together! - Simon

Bio - Charles Gaba, Heath Care Expert, Founder of ACASignups.net

Health care policy analyst Charles Gaba is the founder of ACASignups.net, which has been live-tracking Obamacare enrollments since the exchanges launched in October 2013. His work has been cited by major publications from the Washington Post and Forbes to the New York Times as being the most reliable source available for up-to-date, accurate ACA enrollment data in the country.

You can also find Charles’ work on Substack.

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In Israel there is a growing sense that the war has failed, and Netanyahu’s coalition now trails in current polling in their October election.

At the G7 today Trump had an extended meeting with Zelenskyy and Macron, and for today, at least, a strong, united West re-emerged. Putin’s head must have exploded at seeing the vibe coming from the meeting in France…..

While this was happening Ukraine symbolically struck targets in Moscow itself, and smoke has been visible throughout the Capital today. Further humiliation for Putin.

Here in the US Democrats must prepare themselves to be unrelenting in labeling this war an historic failure, work to establish its true costs, and begin laying out a foreign policy vision that takes in account the new realities of the emerging geopolitical failures of Trump, Putin and Netanyahu. Simply, there must be accountability for this failed, illegal war, arguably the most spectacular failure by an American President in our history (here’s a link to the article below).

For as we discussed yesterday America comes out of this ridiculous war in a far weaker position internationally, Iran much stronger; and the costs of this war to the American taxpayer while already felt in higher prices are only just beginning to be understood. Here’s that true cost estimate I shared yesterday. For us, at least a $1 trillion. For the rest of the world many, many trillions more. All due to one guy, making the call, without authorization or even consultation.

A new analysis from G. Elliott Morris reminds us of the opportunity that is in front of Democrats now in our elections this November:

Note how much we’ve gained in recent months on the question Morris focuses on today:

Look where we stand in an historical context. Our lead on this question is currently one of the largest in the post WWII era:

We have talked here together about how we must imagine the next ten years not as a period of autocratic and oligarchical consolidation, but one where here in the US and around the world we experience a “new birth of freedom.” A period where democracy and liberty advance throughout the world and not retreat. With Orban falling, and now these three leaders suffering dramatic geopolitical losses, perhaps we can begin to see that far better future a bit more clearly now. It is why, my friends, this work we do here matters every day. For we have no alternative than to keep fighting, keep imagining a better day and then go out build a politics to make it so - for that is what we do here at Hopium. For Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better. We do the work to make it so…….

Some Things To Call Congress About This Week -

• Finish the job on the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk

• Yes to making American oligarchs pay for Trump’s failed war not every day Americans

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton

• Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

Note this front-page story from today’s Washington Post. We need to start lobbying for bills to force Trump to pay for all the money he has stolen, and the damage he has done to the White House, the Capital itself, even his failed and illegal war:

Help Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better - A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 111 new people, on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

Now, Let’s Get To Work, People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $774,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $77,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $16,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $103,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $85,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $1,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer

Winning Ohio - $159,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $6,700 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $592,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $122,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $185,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

Hopium paid subscribers will gather this Wednesday, June 17th at 7pm ET.

We’ll follow the normal format - I’ll offer up my latest take on things and then open it up for questions until 8pm ET. For those who can’t make it live our discussion will be recorded and released on the Hopium site Thursday morning.

If you are not yet a paid subscriber and want to join us on Wednesday you can sign up here or below.

Read more

How Much Money Did Trump Promise Iran? - This is the big one. Iran wants hundreds of billions to rebuild their country after Trump’s attacks. They can get it by tolling the Straight of Hormuz or Trump pays. Trump claims there will be no tolls and there was no commitment for a $300b reconstruction fund (yes that the American people be on the hook for). I don’t believe him.

Israel And Bibi Are Not On Board - In the past when Israel broke Trump’s “cease fire” Iran would respond with attacks against its adversaries in the region. Will that cycle begin anew?

When Will We Get The Real Bill? - How much will Trump’s failed war actually cost the US? It’s critical we fight for true costing of the huge inflation we’ve seen, the repairing of our bases in the region, the rebuilding of our military, whatever Trump promised to buy off Iran, and reduced American global deterrence (due to our weakened state, failure in the region, delusional leadership). We’ve come out of the war in a far weaker global position and that weakness may end up proving very, very costly to America.

Here is a rough estimate Claude ran for me this morning of the true cost of Trump’s failed war - $1 trillion……

No authorization from Congress. No debate. Trump just spent at least $1 trillion, illegally, without authorization, and did enormous harm to our global standing and the global economic and political order, which could bring staggering additional costs - financial and national security - in the coming years. Pure Mad King, autocratic, un-American destructive actions that are causing our Founders to turn violently in their graves.

Note these estimates do not include whatever monies he promised to Iran. Perhaps that is why Trump is rushing to the G7 - to demand our global allies to foot the bill for his failed war…..

Congress Is Not Happy With The War, And May Be Done Giving Him A Blank Check - Here’s Punchbowl this am:

While praising Trump for stopping a war he started, Hill Republicans will be monitoring the nuclear talks intently. They want Congress to have a say in any final agreement, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune told us last week.

“Under our law, any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent to Congress for review and a vote,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a key Trump ally. “I look forward to reviewing the final product and I believe it is imperative that the architect of the deal, Vice President Vance and his negotiating partners, be part of the process in presenting the final deal to Congress.”

I’ve updated our Trumpian deficit tracker with new war data. The cost of our increased deficits under Trump are staggering:

It’s going to be critical for Democrats to build a politics around the costs of Trump’s many manifest failures and how those who he has worked tirelessly to benefit - the oligarchs - need to pay for it all. Not us, the American people who’ve soaring inflation and gutted health care. Them. They need to pay.

Things like making Trump and his family personally liable for any pay outs to Iran for his unauthorized war I think becomes fair game now. He’s leaving us a ridiculous bill. We should not agree to pay it. He and his enabling and corrupt buddies need to do so.

Other news we’re tracking:

• In a deeply ominous development 100 FBI agents raided an Ohio voter registration group

• The NYT comes out hard against Todd Blanche for Attorney General - Todd Blanche Is Unfit For Office - and Jen Rubin warns “Senate Republicans who vote to confirm Todd Blanche for attorney general should take heed: They will be haunted for the rest of their careers (some of which may very well end with the midterms) by the courageous survivors of Jeffrey Epstein’s monstrous crimes”

• A GOP front group called “Progressive Champions PAC” has started attacking Cait Conley in NY-17 Democratic primary

• The Trump regime restricted global deployment of new Anthropic AI models in “latest in a series of adverse Trump administration actions targeting the company” that the regime doesn’t like

• Paul Krugman works his magic in a new essay, Elon Musk, Human Ponzi Scheme

Things to call Congress about this week:

• Finish the job on the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton

• Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

Help Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better - A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 107 new people, well on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

Now, Let’s Get To Work, People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $773,200 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $77,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $16,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $103,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $85,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $1,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer

Winning Ohio - $159,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $6,700 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $592,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $122,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $185,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Winning In An Evolving Battlefield/Voting Early And Voting On Day 1

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; learn how you can help us win in evolving political and electoral battlefield this year; help your networks and community start preparing to help everyone Vote Early this November.

Here’s our working, evolving Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work to end this ridiculous new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions

• Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia by passing HR 2913, The Ukraine Support Act, in the House this week

• Roll back the new, illegal tariffs

• Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us

• Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere

• Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people

• Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation

• End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health

• Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

My social media feeds this morning are full of incredible scenes of celebration across The City…..here are two……

From Brooklyn. Sound on. Listen to the roar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sound on here too…….feel the joy…….

We are having quite a weekend of spectacle here in DC this weekend too……

We had the dramatic emergence of Donnie’s Tarp…….

We had the just in time for his birthday removal of his name from the Kennedy Center (yes this is image of a statue of Saddam Hussein falling):

This weekend we are fortunate and grateful to learn that our GREAT AND MIGHTY Leader has determined that millions and millions should be spent to “re-gild” our statutes here in our Nations’ Capital (this is a real post):

We are also fortunate that our MIGHTY and POWERFUL Leader is gracing the White House with these glorious activities to celebrate his 80th birthday this weekend (not since ancient Rome have we seen such spectacle!):

And as it his birthday it is appropriate that our MIGHTY Leader is rewarded by the people for his years of service to the nation:

Back in the real world a new Reuters-Ipsos poll finds that just 16% of Americans support the UFCing of the White House, including only 31% of Republicans……

Happy Sunday to the Knicks fans out there from Washington, DC. Here, today we are the Ultimate Fight Capital of the World. It is up to us, all of us, to ensure that today will not be remembered for an ailing, addled old man’s ridiculous birthday festivities but for his traitorous betrayal of our democracy and the rancid desecration of it’s most important symbols.

May that be what June 14th signifies to Americans for generations to come. A day of infamy, not celebration. For as Jalen Brunson and the USMNT’s team have showed us in recent days there are heroes among us, leaders who can lift us up and inspire, and give us hope that this once great nation can become great again……

……………..

We have terrific new conversations and presentations for you to dive into this weekend:

• Our Senate nominee in Iowa Josh Turek dropped by and inspired and impressed - what a great candidate! If you watch one thing this weekend it should be this one

• Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison updated us on the fight to create accountability for Trump’s lawless siege of Minnesota

• Stand Up For Science’s Dr. Colette Delawalla came by to urge us to join their campaign to Stop Vought and Save Science

• I had lively talks with April Ryan of The Contrarian and Stuart Stevens of Lincoln Square

• And offered my weekly take on things in a new video and post, Trump - desperate men do desperate things.

Things we should be calling and fighting for this week:

• Finish the job on the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate to the President’s desk

• Finish the job on the Iran war powers resolutions that have passed both the Senate and House in recent weeks, and get them to the President’s desk

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• hell no to Todd Blanche becoming Attorney General

• Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Joins the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 102 new people, well on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

Now, Let’s Go Out And Win Some Elections People!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $772,500 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $77,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $16,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $103,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $85,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $1,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer

Winning Ohio - $159,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $6,600 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $592,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $122,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $185,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Winning In An Evolving Battlefield/Voting Early And Voting On Day 1

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; learn how you can help us win in evolving political and electoral battlefield this year; help your networks and community start preparing to help everyone Vote Early this November.

Here’s our working, evolving Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work to end this ridiculous new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions

• Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia by passing HR 2913, The Ukraine Support Act, in the House this week

• Roll back the new, illegal tariffs

• Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us

• Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere

• Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people

• Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation

• End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health

• Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

INGLEWOOD, Calif. — It began with thunderous chants of “U-S-A” and climaxed with the best 45 minutes in U.S. men’s World Cup history.

It was seven years and 364 days in the making, and it was worth every day, hour, second of waiting.

U.S. soccer fans and players had, for years, dreamed of this moment, a glitzy World Cup opener on home soil, an unparalleled stage for their sport. They had dreamed of meeting it, of igniting America, of elevating soccer.

But no one could have realistically envisioned this — a rousing 4-1 win over Paraguay, patriotic glee on the field and in the stands, silky soccer and eruptions of noise.

“I mean, my whole life I feel like I’ve envisioned it,” U.S. defender Chris Richards said. “But tonight was way better than what I could’ve envisioned. It was surreal.”

In front of 70,492 fans at SoFi Stadium near Los Angeles, it was more than a near-perfect start to this home World Cup.

It was, as Sebastian Berhalter said while recalling the victory lap to thank the fans, “what U.S. soccer should be.”

It was a launchpad into a new U.S. men’s national team era.

It was arguably our best performance in 100 years:

I am a big soccer guy and honestly I am still stunned this morning at what we witnessed last night. Free, open, creative play. Incredible dominance from the start. Unprecedented ambition in our passing. Remarkable goals, strong game management, encouraging depth. After recent struggles the US brought in one of the most respected coaches in the world, Argentinian Mauricio Pochettino, and last night we saw what great coaching and talented young players can do. Our boys came to play last night and it was just beautiful to see.

Our next game is this Friday in Seattle against Australia at 3pm ET. Be sure to watch and help root our boys on to victory!

Here’s the latest Substack post of prominent right-wing commentator Erick Erickson, “The Beclowning of a President”:

At least 39 times in the last 65 days, the President of the United States has declared the United States and Iran were close to a deal only to have the Iranians openly mock him and deny it.

Yesterday, the President went on Fox & Friends in the morning to declare bombings would resume and be even more ferocious. By the afternoon, he declared bombings would cease because a deal was close. He claimed buy-in from the Egyptians, the Emirates, the Saudis, the Kuwaitis, the Israelis, the Iranians, and more.

Egypt said it had no knowledge of any deal. Israel said it had no knowledge of a deal. Then FARS, the semi-official Iranian news agency that represents the voice of the Revolutionary Guard in Iran said there was no deal. Overnight, word came the Ayatollah refused a deal. Then the Iranians started firing drones at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The President, the other days, said Iran was playing us. The only one being played is President Trump. A state of war exists between Iran and its neighbors. The ceasefire is a farce. The President has turned into a clown.

I share this post because Trump may entering a new phase where all the ridiculous and vainglorious things we see - his continued falling asleep on the job, his daily confabulations, his repeated promises of peace tomorrow, his all night posting, his pathetic cries of “rigging,” the $60m spent on his birthday party, the ongoing desecration of global symbols of our democracy:

his ballroom, his slush fund, his swollen ankles and blackened hands, his failed bluing of The Reflecting Pool:

and now perhaps the most ridiculous of them all - his comical attempt to prevent and then cover up the removal of his name from the Kennedy Center:

all of this, the unending, cascading, daily absurdity of it all, may be finally crystalizing into something truly politically dangerous for him. For he may be becoming not just be a failed President, a wildly unpopular President, but a ridiculous, old, and clownish one.

As I write this morning that tarp covering up the removal of his name was still up and he starts this weekend celebrating his 80th birthday even more diminished and clownish than he has ever been. Ridicule is a powerful tool to take down autocrats, and we need to be using ambitiously, aggressively, daily for no one has ever deserved it more than the desperate, pathetic, bloated, sundowning madman who humiliates this country in new and more perverse ways every day.

As we’ve been discussing the undeniable ridiculousness and failure of his Presidency now means he can no longer count on blind support from Congressional Republicans, a significant development in our politics. Congress keeps rebuking, repeatedly, on things that matter to him - Ukraine, Iran, the ballroom, his slush fund. While we will not win every battle we are winning far more of them, and with each win he grows weaker and we grow stronger.

I mean could anyone have imagined we would be seeing headlines or stories like this a few months ago (gift link):

Yes my friends, he is weaker and we are stronger. It’s why we need to keep our heads down and keep doing the work everybody!!!!!!!!!!!

We have terrific new conversations and presentations for you to dive into this weekend:

• Our Senate nominee in Iowa Josh Turek dropped by and inspired and impressed - what a great candidate! If you watch one thing this weekend it should be this one

• Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison updated us on the fight to create accountability for Trump’s lawless siege of Minnesota

• Stand Up For Science’s Dr. Colette Delawalla came by to urge us to join their campaign to Stop Vought and Save Science

• I had lively talks with April Ryan of The Contrarian and Stuart Stevens of Lincoln Square

• And offered my weekly take on things in a new video and post, Trump - desperate men do desperate things.

Things we should be calling and fighting for this week:

• Finish the job on the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate to the President’s desk

• Finish the job on the Iran war powers resolutions that have passed both the Senate and House in recent weeks, and get them to the President’s desk

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• hell no to Todd Blanche becoming Attorney General

• Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Joins the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 95 new people, well on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

Subscribe now

Now, Let’s Go Out And Win Some Elections People!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $771,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $77,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $103,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $15,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek

James Talarico For Texas - $85,200 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Winning Ohio - $159,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $6,500 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $591,700 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $121,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $185,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

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First up, sending along a conversation I had yesterday with April Ryan of the Contrarian (above). While we cover a lot of ground in our lively talk up top I do a comprehensive overview of the current electoral landscape and why 2026 has become a year of opportunity for Democrats. It’s hearty fare for anyone looking for a midterm deep dive this weekend.

Yesterday Trump withdrawn Bill Pulte’s nomination for Director of National Intelligence and nominated a close friend, Jay Clayton, instead. It’s a meaningful win folks - thanks to all who made noise about this in recent days. While Pulte may have fallen events of recent weeks have made it clear that a desperate and wildly unpopular Trump has decided to do whatever it takes to maintain power illicitly next January - and we must get ready. More on that here:

The Talarico campaign has launched a new Spanish-language ad campaign tied to the World Cup. Here’s the ad, perhaps the first in a series as the World Cup will be with us for a month:

This is a very smart strategy, one Democrats across the country should consider emulating (there is time). This campaign has echos of a campaign my old organization, NDN, ran during the 2006 World Cup. While I’ve not been able to find video of the ads themselves here is an AP write up of our launch:

Some Democrats Use World Cup to Win Over Hispanic Voters

World Cup soccer is “mas que un partido” — more than a game — to a group of Democrats. It’s a chance to win over Hispanic voters.

The New Democrat Network is starting a $2 million Spanish-language campaign of radio and television ads urging Hispanics to get involved in the political process. The five-month effort begins with ads during the World Cup soccer games that begin this weekend in Germany.

Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, said the group wants to use a “major sport like soccer to brand Democrats for a wider audience.”

The TV ad shows an empty soccer field as an announcer says: “For years now, we’ve been awaiting this moment. Our country is again ready to return to being the great nation that all of us always dreamed of. Get involved. It’s up to you.”

The ads will run on Univision, Telefutura, Fox Sports en Espanol and Futbol de Primera, the radio soccer network of well-known broadcaster Andres Cantor. Cantor — know for his trademark exclamation “GOOOOALLLLL!” — will be featured on an early radio ad.

The radio ad will air in 70 markets nationally and the television ad will focus on six states and nine major markets — Albuquerque, N.M.; Denver and Colorado Springs, Colo.; El Paso, Texas; Las Vegas; Orlando and Tampa, Fla.; and Phoenix and Tucson, Ariz.

Hispanics are the fastest growing minority in the United States. Rosenberg has focused much of his efforts on trying to build support for Democrats among a group that makes up about 14 percent of the U.S. population. The total of Hispanic registered voters is about half the percentage of Hispanics overall.

Strategists from the Democratic group suggested that the current immigration debate has motivated many eligible Hispanics to register to vote, making this year a critical time to connect with potential voters.

Democrats need an aggressive approach to keep their historic advantage among Hispanics, especially since President Bush got an estimated 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, Rosenberg said.

In our campaign we produced thousands and thousands of soccer balls branded with the más que un partido slogan and distributed them to Democratic groups where the ads were running to give out at soccer matches and events. In Spanish más que un partido means both “more than a political party” and “more than a soccer match.” Yes, the team who produced these ads, led by Sergio Bendixen (who is no longer with us) and Jimmy Learned did a remarkable job in this pathbreaking campaign.

Here is a photo of one these soccer balls I keep in the my Hopium room. Note that we called the organization behind the campaign “democratas unidos” - united Democrats - not NDN, for no one would have known who we were:

We launched this campaign and other efforts that followed during the general election of 2006 because in 2004 Bush’s successful campaign to court Hispanic voters was central to his re-election victory and the best showing of a Republican Presidential candidate in any national election from 1988 to present day. We launched our campaigns in 2004 and 2006 to counter what Bush was doing for if Republicans won over Hispanics it was going to very, very hard for us to win national elections again. The good news is that we recovered our standing with Hispanics in 2006, and used our strong support to create the best run of Presidential performance for the Democratic Party from 2008 to 2020 since FDR (we averaged 51% in those 4 Presidential elections).

Current polling finds that those gains Trump made in 2024 with Hispanic voters have unraveled - for good reason ffs - and campaigns like Talarico’s will give us a shot of re-establishing our traditional margins and scoring critical wins in heavily Hispanic parts of the country. More on that in future posts…….

A New Politics Of Virtue - Spending time with Talarico world this morning, and reflecting on my inspiring discussion yesterday with Josh Turek (do watch, he’s a great candidate!), has lead me to write this morning on something I’ve noticed in the many candidate interviews we’ve done - Democrats across the country are running as men and women of virtue. That in the many ways that we can differentiate ourselves from Trump, and build a new winning politics in 2026 and beyond, I think virtue has emerged as an attribute candidates are embracing across the country. It is a natural counter to the GOP’s corruption and lawlessness, of their assault on democracy, and of their embrace of oligarchy and abandonment of working people. It is something I’ve heard and felt from our candidates in these interviews again and again. It feels like something new, a new form of “strength” for our candidates in a time of extraordinary betrayal by the rich and powerful.

This is perhaps why I’ve hesitated to immediately embrace Graham Platner this week. For in my bones his candidacy, while powerful and galvanizing for so many, hasn’t felt like what I’ve been hearing and feeling from the many other candidates we’ve heard from who are running competitively in places Trump won by large margins. Remember candidates like Talarico, Peltola, Sherrod Brown, and Josh Turek are trying to win in places we haven’t been winning in regularly for decades, and are places Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024. Harris won Maine by 7 points in 2024, and what is required and necessary to win there just may be different than what we need in red places and red states. As we often say here there is no one path for success in a big tent like party like ours, and none of us should be so arrogant to believe we know what works in an election that hasn’t happened yet and where we need to be experimenting and testing new arguments and approaches that speak to this new, unique moment.

Through this process of meditating on virtue I’ve come to realize that I must be open to the idea that Graham Platner’s virtue is of a different sort. One of military service, of patriotism, of redemption, and of unyielding desire to take on the powerful to help those who’ve been left behind. That, yes, virtue can come in many forms.

So in that vein, and responding to the intense support that Graham Platner clearly has here in the Hopium community (thanks for weighing in all, the passion for Platner here has pulsated through the comments in recent days), I am adding him to our recommended candidate list today. For I don’t know what the best course is for us, and want to remain open minded about new arguments, approaches, and candidates so we can build a new and better Democratic Party. We will be reaching out to the Platner campaign today to set up one of our candidate conversations, and hope to also bring on the Democratic nominees for Maine governor and ME-02 after the ranked choice voting tally ends on June 19th too. Maine was always going to be one of our most important states this cycle, which is why we’ve been one of the largest investors in the Maine Democratic Party over the past year. The voters of Maine have spoken and it is time now to get on with Winning Maine as we are going to win so many other states across the country this year.

Here is that victory speech Graham Platner gave the other night that so many of you keep talking about. I encourage everyone here to watch:

Now, my friends, we’ve got a few other things to do today…..

Issues to call your Senators and House Reps about:

• Finish the job on the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate to the President’s desk

• Finish the job on the Iran war powers resolutions that have passed both the Senate and House in recent weeks, and get them to the President’s desk

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• hell no to Todd Blanche becoming Attorney General

• Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Joins the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 89 new people, well on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

Now, Let’s Go Out And Win Some Elections People!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $770,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $76,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $103,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $14,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek

James Talarico For Texas - $85,200 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Winning Ohio - $158,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $6,200 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $590,700 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $121,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $185,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

Josh has a remarkable story:

Josh Turek is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist for Team USA and a State Legislator who represents the reddest seat held by a Democrat in the state of Iowa. Born with spina bifida after his dad was exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam, Josh overcame 21 surgeries by the age of 12 to eventually represent the U.S. at four Paralympics.

Here is Josh’s take on the general election in Iowa (from our interview):

I would say that all of the stars have perfectly aligned here in Iowa. Unfortunately, we’re a state that has really bottomed out. We are basically dead last for economic growth, one of two states in an economic decline… basically dead last for nearly every health care metric, a state that’s closed 250 more health care clinics than we’ve opened in the last 15 years. And because of the tariffs, we now lead the nation in farm foreclosures and we’re seeing farm suicide rates skyrocketing, which has really led to to a “farmageddon,” a second farm crisis here in Iowa.

You’ve got this opportunity where it’s the first time since 1968 - an open governor’s race, along with an open Senate race, and two open congressional races. You’ve got great candidates like myself and Rob Sand with proven results to be able to win over, you know, the 37% of Iowa voters that are Independents and moderate Republicans…

It’s really an amazing opportunity.

To help Josh seize this “amazing opportunity” please consider donating to him today. You can also learn more about Josh and volunteer by heading to his campaign’s website.

Here is a video his campaign released right after his primary win last week that helps you get to know Josh and his opponent Rep. Ashley Hinson:

Here’s a great take on the race from CNN: A Paralympian and ‘prairie populist’: How this Iowa Senate candidate is trying to spark a rural revival for Democrats

Josh is running against Rep. Ashley Hinson, who just won the primary to fill the Senate seat left open by the retirement of Senator Joni Ernst. Like other Republican House Members running this year she will have to defend her votes for the tariffs, for the war, for gutting health care and food stamps, and for enormous tax cuts for wealthy people like her and Donald Trump - and that won’t be easy.

Here is something the campaign has put out regarding Hinson and the state of the race:

ASHLEY HINSON HAS REPEATEDLY SOLD OUT IOWANS TO ENRICH HERSELF AND HER DONORS

Ashley Hinson is a uniquely vulnerable Republican, and her party knows it, which is why they have nearly $40 million in reservations booked for the fall. With a net worth up to 100x higher than the median Iowa household, multi-millionaire Ashley Hinson is out of touch with everyday Iowans. Her favorability is underwater, most notably with Independents, who “view her negatively by more than a 2-to-1 margin.” Hinson has called herself an unpopular president’s “strongest ally,” even as Iowans are hurting. Our campaign will spend the next 153 days connecting her exceptionally bad voting record that has hurt Iowans with her clear prioritization of enriching herself and her fellow 1% donors. Polling already shows that Josh bests Hinson once voters hear equal positive messages and attacks on each candidate. The bottom line: Our campaign will leverage Josh’s compelling personal story and proven ability to connect with Republicans and Independents to capitalize on a favorable political environment and a vulnerable Hinson to win in November.

Trump’s favorability is underwater in Iowa, a state he won by 13 points in 2024. Republican-passed healthcare cuts have devastated an already broken, heavily rural healthcare system. The Middle East war is driving gas prices past $4/gallon in Iowa, with diesel even higher. Iowa’s agricultural economy is getting hammered by tariffs as farm foreclosures skyrocket. The state is dead last for economic growth, 48th for personal income growth, and one of the only states with a growing cancer rate. As a result, Iowa is home to the nation’s most unpopular Governor. What’s more: in the last Trump midterm, Democrats won three of the four Congressionals, and in 2022, Democrats nearly won three statewide offices. In this Trump midterm with an Iowa that is hurting like never before, voters know the status quo is failing them.

Friends, I am excited to introduce you to Rep. Josh Turek today. He’s another of the many inspiring Americans we’ve met who’ve stepped up to run in red states and red places this cycle. He has a real shot here, and I hope you will lend your support to him today……

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, a democracy to protect, and great candidates like Josh to help elect, together! Simon

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Bio - State Representative Josh Turek, U.S. Senate Candidate In Iowa

Josh Turek is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist for Team USA and a State Legislator who represents the reddest seat held by a Democrat in the state of Iowa. Born with spina bifida after his dad was exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam, Josh overcame 21 surgeries by the age of 12 to eventually represent the U.S. at four Paralympics.

After his basketball career ended with a gold medal in Tokyo in 2021, Josh ran to represent his hometown of Council Bluffs in the legislature. Running in a seat that Donald Trump had already won twice, Josh pushed his chair up hills and crawled up stairs to talk to Iowans of all political stripes, eventually winning by six votes. He was re-elected by a five point margin at the same time Trump was winning the seat by eight points, not only because of his work ethic but because he’s developed a reputation as a common-sense, bipartisan legislator.

Josh is committed to shaping economic policy decisions that benefit the middle class and workers rather than Wall Street and billionaire donors. Josh is committed to alleviating the economic pressures faced by increasingly cash-strapped Iowans and their families. He is a strong supporter of public education and has been a vocal opponent to school vouchers. He has been and continues to be a relentless advocate for major reform to Iowa’s broken health care system. He is a strong proponent of meaningful and effective environmental protection - especially the air, food, and water we all rely on.

While playing professional basketball, Josh began as the Volunteer Director for the Ryan Martin Foundation, an organization providing disabled children opportunities to play sports for free. He also worked with patients and doctors at a wheelchair and mobility assistance company, to provide mobility devices and complex rehab technology to people with disabilities. In this role, Josh recognized major shortfalls in our health care system - routinely failing the most vulnerable in our society.

Josh lives in Council Bluffs with his wife Jarolin, who is an immigrant and now a U.S. citizen, working in health care.

Learn more about Rep. Turek and his campaign for U.S. Senate here.

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Hopium Founding Members will gather tomorrow, June 12th, at 1pm ET.

A reminder that these meetings operate under Chatham House rules and are not recorded and shared so as to facilitate an open discussion. AI note takers or recordings of any kind are not permitted.

If you are reading this and not yet a Founding Member you can sign up here or below. It’s a wonderful group - join us!

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Here’s our updated PPI chart (see yesterday’s post for more on the explosive inflation we are seeing under Trump):

Yes, Trump’s failed war keeps failing.

The proud, plucky patriots of this remarkable community gathered last night for our weekly look at our progress in the great battle against MAGA and for freedom and democracy, here and everywhere. A video recording and rough transcript of my talk and the lively Q & A that followed can be found above.

The main theme of my talk last night was desperation. With soaring unpopularity, surging inflation, interest rates now more likely to rise than fall, a failed war and global leaders and events failing to bend the knee, political and legal loss after loss piling up, Congressional Rs far more willing to challenge him on things that matter, his candidate losing in a consequential Iowa governor’s race, his health and mind failing, it has become clear and undeniable that his powers are ebbing and he has become a diminished figure, far more a weak man than a strong one. He hit 29% approval on the economy this week in Economist/YouGov, and 24% on inflation - he just keeps crashing through polling floors each week. All measures of our intensity - primary vote totals, polling, electoral overperformance - suggest a wave election is coming. We are now much more likely to return to power, winning the House and even the Senate this November. And all of this is making him more and more desperate, reckless, unhinged, maniacal, wild, and of course dangerous. Consider:

Unwilling to accept surrender in his failed war, but driven by a need to get energy prices down here at home, he returns to bloodthirsty rhetoric, bombing Iran, and potentially committing war crimes - a strategy that has already failed spectacularly. It reeks of desperation.

The ridiculous Trump-led whole of right-wing movement to turn the late vote counting in California into “rigging” and “cheating” is a sign of how scared they are about the upcoming election, and a reminder that he is at the point where he is going to do “whatever it takes” to stay in power. It reeks of desperation.

“Whatever it takes” this week includes the outrageous attempt to put Bill Pulte in charge of ODNI and his mob lawyer Todd Blanche in charge of DOJ over the clear reservations by already estranged Senate Republicans. These moves can only be read as Trump preparing to do whatever it takes to prevent us from winning this November and taking power in January. It reeks of desperation.

In the Oval yesterday when pressed about the terrible new inflation numbers, Trump panicked and blurted out that ridiculous inflation line:

It too reeks of desperation.

Here is something he truthed last night. Senate Rs have already told him no on “Reconciliation 3.0” and the SAVE Act, and yet, like a child, he just keeps screaming for more, more, more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No other President has ever been more committed to both REBUILDING our Great Military and SAVING our Great Country — And NOW is the time to make it happen, for Generations to come.

I am hereby calling on Republicans in Congress to IMMEDIATELY advance and pass the forthcoming $350 Billion Reconciliation Bill (Recon 3.0) — which, at the request of our Great Department of War — will include THE SAVE AMERICA ACT as well. No games, no delays, and no weak compromises! Do this ASAP.

This is a GENERATIONAL Investment in our Military, even bigger than President Reagan’s! Recon 3.0 is the ONLY path to the full $1.5 TRILLION DOLLAR Military Budget our Warriors need in order to build THE ARSENAL OF FREEDOM.

We will defend the Homeland with the Golden Dome, launch the unstoppable Golden Fleet, dominate the skies with the F-47 and B-21, supercharge our ammunition stockpiles, and achieve total Space Force and Drone Dominance!

This Budget reignites American Industry, creates hundreds of thousands of high-paying American Jobs, and secures our Global Dominance without fueling Inflation.

Also, with THE SAVE AMERICA ACT, it will protect our Elections for Generations to come. Our Warriors protect our most Sacred Rights, and Voting is at the top. Time to defend that Right for every American!

Pass ALL $350 BILLION and THE SAVE AMERICA ACT to secure the NATION for our children and grandchildren.

THE SAVE AMERICA ACT!

1. ALL VOTERS MUST SHOW PHOTO I.D. (IDENTIFICATION!).

2. ALL VOTERS MUST SHOW PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP.

3. NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS (EXCEPT FOR ILLNESS, DISABILITY, MILITARY, OR TRAVEL!).

4. NO MEN IN WOMEN’S SPORTS.

5. NO TRANSGENDER MUTILIZATION SURGERY FOR OUR CHILDREN.

Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump has decided to stop paying back the tariffs he illegally stole from American business and the American people. It’s insane, as that money would be used by business to hire workers, keep prices from rising, and help him win this November. Yet, in his diseased mind that money is his and he just wants to keep it. 100 percent cray-cray!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

His health - just OMG. What a charade. It’s become evident to all that it’s time for him to retire.

Epstein has returned. A new NYT expose is putting their illegal coverup of the Epstein files squarely back into our discourse (gift link):

Desperation, whatever it takes, a big blubbery baby man - anything, anything but a strong man. That’s what we talked about last night.

We also talked about Graham Platner, and my effort to get feedback from the community before moving ahead with an endorsement. I appreciate everyone who weighed in yesterday, with their support and with their concerns. I encourage folks to register their opinions using this link, while always keeping it in the spirit of how we do things here - respectfully civilly, and truthfully/no BS.

For Platner supporters my recommendation is recognize that there is real concern in the family about his character and viability, respect that, and work to bring people along to build a stronger and more robust coalition behind him. Harris won Maine by 7 points and it is essential we win there this November. Bring people along to you point of view, make your case - it is the very essence of how things work in a democracy, and how we do things here at Hopium.

In addition to what I shared yesterday about Platner and his campaign here are a few more things to review:

• On Platner, and Me - Daniel Barkuff

• Condemning a Nazi Tattoo Shouldn’t Be This Hard - Mike Nelson, The Atlantic

• Platner’s first general election ad

• The GOP’s first general ad against Platner

Here are things you can call your Senators and House Rep about today:

• Finish the job on the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate to the President’s desk

• Finish the job on the Iran war powers resolutions that have passed both the Senate and House in recent weeks, and get them to the President’s desk

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• Hell no to Bill Pulte for ODNI, and hell hell no to Todd Blanche becoming Attorney General

• Hell hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Joins the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 85 new people, well on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

Subscribe now

Now, it is that time everyone!!!! Let’s……

Go Out And Win Some Elections People!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $768,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $76,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $11,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer |

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $102,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $85,200 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Winning Ohio - $158,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $6,500 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $589,700 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $121,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $184,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

A reminder that Hopium paid subscribers will gather this evening at 7pm ET.

We’ll follow our usual format - I’ll offer up my latest take on things and then open it up for questions until 8pm ET. For those who can’t make it live our discussion will be recorded and released on the Hopium site tomorrow morning.

If you are not yet a paid subscriber and want to join us you can sign up here or below.

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Here is some what he tells us about the current state of their attempt to bring accountability for the lawless attack by our government on the people of Minnesota:

We’re dealing with the acts of violence committed by the paramilitaries of Operation Metro Surge. And by paramilitaries, I mean ICE, Border Security, and others. There are at least five criminal investigations that I’m aware of. Two of them have been converted into actual charges. One of them was when some ICE agents were not necessarily going from or to the job — they seemed to be off duty — and they were waving guns at motorists in a road rage incident. They are caught on video doing it. They are now charged with second-degree assault.

When it comes to the Pretti case and the Good case, the federal government continues to deny access to material evidence. In the case, they have said that they’re not investigating, then they’ve said that they are investigating, trying to do is play a game because they know that when they say something definitive — that makes it easier for us to file a lawsuit and to get the court to give us the file. So they’ve been playing games. But we did file that lawsuit — that case is pending… I want everyone to know that just because you haven’t seen us file the criminal case against the people who killed [Alex] and [Renée], that doesn’t mean we’re not working on this every single day. I believe that we will make a decision in the near term. I also remind everybody that there’s no statute of limitations on murder. I don’t think it’s going to take that long. When we get the information and evaluate the matter, we will make a charging decision.

Here’s a bit more on one of those prosecutions of an ICE agent:

Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison on Monday charged an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in the January shooting of a Venezuelan man in north Minneapolis during wintertime immigration enforcement operations in the Twin Cities. Julio Sosa-Celis suffered a leg wound after the agent opened fire.

The Hennepin County Attorney’s Office said ICE agent Christian Castro fired through the front door of a duplex, striking Julio Sosa-Celis in the leg while people, including children, were inside the home.

Castro faces four counts of second-degree assault and one count of falsely reporting a crime.

In our conversation we reference an exchange between Senator Chris Murphy and DHS Secretary Markwayne Mulllin from a few days ago. This has to be seen to be believed, for Mullin continually refuses to say he will follow the law:

Despite having withdrawn from Minnesota, and fired both Bovino and Noem, the regime is not letting up. This week JD Vance referred - outrageously - both Governor Walz and AG Ellison to the Department of Justice for prosecution for their alleged role in enabling social services fraud in the state:

The fight continues………

Finally, I want to once again thank the remarkable people of Minnesota who stood by their neighbors, fought the Trump regime, and won. Your bravery, courage, and triumph have been an inspiration to us all.

And to the families of Renee Good and Alex Pretti - there are no words that can express the gratitude and sorrow we have for their sacrifice. May their memory be a blessing, and a persistent inspiration for all of us in our work together in the months ahead.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, a democracy to protect, and elections to win, together - Simon

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Bio - Keith Ellison, Attorney General of Minnesota

Keith Ellison was sworn in as Minnesota’s 30th attorney general on January 7, 2019. As the People’s Lawyer, Attorney General Ellison’s job is to help Minnesotans afford their lives and live with dignity, safety, and respect. His guiding values are generosity and inclusion.

From 2007 to 2019, Keith Ellison represented Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, where he championed consumer, worker, environmental, and civil- and human-rights protections for Minnesotans. He served for 12 years on the House Financial Services Committee, where he helped oversee the financial services industry, the housing industry, and Wall Street, among others. Among his legislative accomplishments are passing provisions to protect credit-card holders from abusive practices and protect the rights of renters and tenants. While in Congress, he founded the Congressional Antitrust Caucus and the Congressional Consumer Justice Caucus. He also served as co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which he helped build to more than 100 members.

Before being elected to Congress, Attorney General Ellison served four years in the Minnesota House of Representatives. Prior to entering elective office, he spent 16 years as an attorney specializing in civil-rights and defense law.

Learn more about AG Ellison here.

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Here’s that second inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE):

The coverage this morning looks like this:

The “war” goes on and prices keep rising because Trump is not willing to accept the terms of his surrender:

As we saw yesterday Trump’s approval on the economy in Econ/YouGov was 29%, and he has seen the lowest consumer sentiment in 65 years. For more on Trump’s failed Presidency and his betrayal of every day Americans see my new data-filled post, Reality Check - Trump Has The Worst Jobs Record Since Hoover.

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In California we got some more race calls yesterday - Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton will battle it out for Governor this November, Dr. Richard Pan will take on Rep. Kevin Kiley in CA-06, and Randy Villegas will take on David Valadao in CA-22. As we reported yesterday Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is heading towards a November runoff with City Councilwoman Nithya Raman. Also see my new, extensive analysis on how the tactics Trump and his allies have used to question the integrity of the California election results may be a dry run for November.

Graham Platner won his primary in Maine last night and is now the Democratic nominee for US Senate against Susan Collins. Contested races for Governor on both sides, and on our side in ME-02, did not produce outright winners. So they will now go through the ranked choice voting tally process which will not produce official winners until June 19th (ugh).

Many of you commented on how powerful Platner’s victory speech was last night. For those who didn’t get to watch it here it is. It is very much worth your time:

I am not yet ready to rally behind Platner. I know this is not going to make everyone here happy but I want to see some independent polling, let things shake out over the next few days, and hear from folks in the community. Not ruling out endorsing and rallying for Platner but we have a lot of other races to focus on today, including many in the Senate. If you want to help Platner today you can give to him directly through his campaign site here. You can also help build out the coordinated campaign which houses the party wide field operation for Platner, and our eventual nominees for Governor and ME-02, by giving to the Audacious Expansion Fund or the Maine Democratic Party directly.

A reminder that this community has been a large and early investor in the Maine Democratic Party, and have been one of the most significant investors in what will be the general election field operation that will benefit Platner and all other Democrats this November.

I also want to hear from you before making a call here, as there are very strong feelings in this community about Platner both pro and con. As we have this conversation, together, we need work through it as we do all important and challenging matters - respectfully, truthfully, earnestly. I look forward to our discussion in the coming days and hope folks will weigh in - I really do want to hear from you about the best path forward here.

Here’s our updated Senate outlook, with updated polls in Maine and Texas (note that the Siena poll in Texas we wrote about yesterday was revised this morning from Talarico up 3 to even, 46-46. I have no idea what happened here):

And here’s a summary of recent public polling for Platner:

The rancid ICE funding bill passed the House yesterday and is now headed to Trump’s desk:

Here are things you can call your Senators and House Rep about today:

• Finish the job on the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate to the President’s desk

• Finish the job on the Iran war powers resolutions that have passed both the Senate and House in recent weeks, and get them to the President’s desk

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• Hell no to Bill Pulte for ODNI, and hell hell no to Todd Blanche becoming Attorney General

• Hell hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Joins the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight to discuss all this at 7pm ET. Register here.

A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 80 new people, well on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

Now, it is that time everyone!!!! Let’s……

Go Out And Win Some Elections People!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $766,800 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $75,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $11,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer |

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $101,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $84,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Winning Ohio - $156,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $5,500 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $588,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election and catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $121,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $184,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

……….When Trump won in ‘24, Simon Rosenberg said he never imagined he’d be in this political shape at this moment. That is to say … he’s struggling. If you need receipts, check out Simon’s piece from his Substack, Hopium Chronicles.

Trump’s meltdown is epic, indeed, and he’s beginning to take on the appearance of a caged animal. He and the MAGA base are crying foul at the Los Angeles mayoral race because their chosen candidate (a reality star, obviously) didn’t make the final cut. On social media, there are a million posts about how Trump and Co. don’t understand how elections work, or how they’re all a bunch of soft babies, etc.

And maybe that’s true. But it could also be true that they know exactly how elections work, and they know they’re about to lose in potentially historic fashion. Their whining about the mayoral race could be a preview of something much more sinister.

Stuart Stevens and Simon talk through the MAGA meltdowns, Trump’s recent wild spate of losses, and what it will take to win and rebuild this country.

Keep working hard all, and enjoy this discussion with Stuart Stevens, one of true wise ones in our business - Simon

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Paid subscribers will gather tomorrow night at our usual time, 7pm ET, to review the primary results from Maine and South Carolina, Nevada, and North Dakota. I will also be going over the primary results live with The Contrarians Thursday at 915am ET. Today’s primary vote in Maine will be an important test for Graham Platner. Polls close at 8pm, though with ranked choice voting we may not know the final results until tomorrow or later.

Mayor Karen Bass and City Councilwoman Nithya Raman are headed to a November run off in the Los Angeles Mayor’s race (Yes MAGA golden boy Spencer Pratt crashed out):

While we don’t yet have a Dem in CA-22 note that so far our two candidates have gotten 58% of the vote, incumbent Republican David Valadao just 42%. It’s an encouraging sign in this important pick up opportunity.

While there is still a lot of vote out in the Governor’s race the likely outcome remains is Becerra and Hilton, though Steyer has made gains in recent days.

Yesterday I wrote about how the ridiculous election “rigging” charges by Trump and MAGAs in these California elections are a preview of what is to come this November:

A new independent poll in Texas has Talarico leading Paxton 47%-44%. This data is in line with other recent polling in the race, and is very encouraging.

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracking poll was just released and it continues to show Trump in terrible shape. A few key bits of data:

• 18-29 year olds 26%-71% (-45)

• Hispanics 31%-62% (-31)

• Indies 23%-67% (-44)

• Moderates 24%-73% (-49)

On the economy - not inflation - the economy, which historically was his area of greatest strength, Trump comes in at 29%-63% (-34). Inflation is even worse - 24%-69% (-45). This is as ugly as it gets my friends….

A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 71 new people, well on our way to our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success!

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Eugenics. Whenever I talk to Dr. Colette Delawalla from Stand Up For Science, as I did yesterday, we always end up settling on the word eugenics to describe the Trump regime’s approach to public health. Here’s the definition of eugenics from Merriam-Webster:

They’ve passed enormous cuts to our health care system which will make care more expensive, harder to get, and thus the public’s health will decline and more Americans will die (as they did under Trump’s historic mismanagement of COVID). They vaporized USAID which estimates say will kill 10-15m of the poorest people of the world, including millions of children, and dramatically undermine the public health of all the people of the world. They’ve attacked science and vaccines, causing a return of the one of the deadliest diseases, measles, with more to follow if vaccine hesitancy rates continue to rise. Cuts to both foreign and domestic screwworm monitoring and prevention programs has allowed this deadly parasite to return to the US for the first time since 1960s. And then there’s Ebola. Here’s former senior USAID executive Jeremy Konyndyk in the NYT Times today in a must read piece (gift link):

The current situation in eastern Congo and Uganda combines some of the most dangerous aspects of the 2014 and 2018 outbreaks — the worst Ebola outbreaks in history. The virus was already spreading for several months before it was detected in May, and there are no approved vaccines or treatments for this particular form.

As bad as this situation is, we have a playbook for addressing such crises. But it requires a huge team effort — and this time, the United States has undermined its ability to help by shuttering U.S.A.I.D., cutting staff at C.D.C. and withdrawing from the W.H.O. Thousands of people could pay the ultimate price for that recklessness.

To contain the virus, the international community will need to pool hundreds of millions of dollars to set up specialized clinics, buy lab diagnostics, carry out large-scale contact tracing, manage safe burials, send personal protective equipment to health workers and build trust with skeptical community members.

………

Amid these challenges, the resources and people to help keep the virus in check have been painfully slow to materialize. This is not surprising, given that aid organizations were forced to dramatically cut back operations in eastern Congo last year after U.S.A.I.D.’s departure. In 2024, after years of steadily increasing its support for Congo, U.S.A.I.D. sent the country $545 million. This year, funding has plummeted to $84 million.

They are literally unleashing horrors out into the world and killing tens of millions people in order to give tax cuts to Trump and other wealthy Americans. The idiocy, greed, barbarism, fanaticism, inhumanity of all this overwhelms me whenever I return to these issues. Overwhelms me, and shakes me to my very core.

It also makes me think of this incredibly profound passage of Jefferson’s:

And it reminds us of why we need to keep our heads down, and keep working hard all. Here are things you can call your Senators and House Rep about today:

• Finish the job on the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate to the President’s desk

• Finish the job on the Iran war powers resolutions that have passed both the Senate and House in recent weeks, and get them to the President’s desk

• No to the big ICE/CPB funding bill that gives DHS years of funding with no reform of the out of control agency that will be coming to the House this week

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• Hell no to Bill Pulte for ODNI, and hell hell no to Todd Blanche becoming Attorney General

• Hell hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Joins the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

It also should encourage us to……

Go Out And Win Some Elections Everyone!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $765,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $75,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $10,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer |

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $101,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

James Talarico For Texas - $84,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Winning Ohio - $157,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Winning Iowa - $1,600 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with State Auditor Rob Sand

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $588,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election and catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds

Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $121,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $184,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon

From their new action page:

Russell Vought is trying to destroy American science & federally funded research as we know it.

OMB’s latest proposed rule, “Regulation for Federal Financial Assistance,” would require all scientific grants to be approved by political appointees, stealing approval power from career experts in their fields. Funding would be required to align with “Administration policies and priorities.”

Political appointees selecting or approving research proposals destroys the scientific process, which is exactly what this Administration wants.

This a direct threat to scientific independence, public health, and evidence-based decision-making.

Please join with Stand Up for Science to demand Congress stop this attack on science with direct and intense pressure on Trump and even legislation if that’s what it takes.

To learn more:

• View the full OMB-2026-0034 Proposed Rule

• View the SUFS Overview of the Rule Proposal

• Read Dr. Elizabeth Ginexi’s Overview on the Rule Proposal

• View the SUFS Guide to Leaving Public Comments

• Learn How To Talk to Anyone About the New OMB Rule

Today Hopium is formally endorsing this campaign and encouraging everyone in our community to take an action - contact your Senators and Rep and please use this page to leave a public comment on the new OMB rule:

Please join with Stand Up for Science to stop this attack on science by adding your feedback and comments to the Federal Register during the public comment period, open until July 13, 2026.

Any member of the public can submit comments on these regulations and comments can be as short or as long as you’d like. There is not a limit on comments, however 100 of the same comment count as one comment. Please note, the comment should be PERSONALIZED by you in order to be counted.

This action is CRITICAL as these comments provide groundwork for legal action should OMB ignore our commentary. Further, this information helps Congress understand why the proposed regulations are harmful to our nation.

A “well-commented” public call has hundreds of comments. We are aiming for THOUSANDS; ten thousand comments, to be precise. If everyone who has received federal funding in their career submitted a comment...we would blow past our goal.

This is an all hands on deck for our future, for our kids and grand kids, and for this great country. Please join this campaign to Stop Vought and Save Science. Encourage others to join you, and let’s work together to block one of the most reckless, dangerous, and illiberal things the Trump regime has yet attempted.

Excited to bring this timely conversation with a really important and dynamic new leader of our pro-democracy movement, hit like so more will see it, and share it with others. We have a month to kill this thing and failure is not an option!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks all - Simon

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OMG OMB! - A Brief Overview of OMB-2026-0034

• Appointees Take the Wheel: Federal grants would now be approved by political appointees. The expert consideration that had been provided by peer review panels is now just one item in a list of potential considerations. Some government agencies have already made this change in response to an earlier executive order. The Stand Up for Science Foundation has learned that political appointees in those agencies have already contacted universities and other institutions and asked them to change the nature of their work in order to more closely align with the President’s agenda.

• Makes funding subject to culture-war politics: The regulation includes extensive new requirements, including demands that awards “demonstrably advance the president’s policy priorities.” This includes prohibiting “denial by the recipient of the sex binary in humans or the notion that sex is a chosen or mutable characteristic” in addition to “initiatives that compromise public safety or promote anti-American values.”

• The government may terminate and suspend grants at any time, for any reason: Agencies would now be able to terminate grants at any time if they no longer align with “agency priorities” or current administration policy. Previously, grants could only be canceled due to significant issues like fraud or mismanagement. This is significant when combined with OMB’s proposal to discourage awardsthat give recipients more flexibility, while pushing to lock them into multi-year commitments. The combination allows the government to lock-in projects that are aligned with agency priorities while retaining a way to terminate them if political priorities change.

• Unscientific Requirements: The document seems to suggest that only studies that can be replicated would qualify for federal grants. Certain scientific activities, like observations of astronomical or weather events, are inherently not replicable. There is also language prohibiting acknowledgement of sex non-binaries that is incompatible with studying human development (see Chimerism, Sweyer Syndrome, etc.)

• No Political Viewpoint Discrimination - Except for Prohibited Political Viewpoints: While the regulation prohibits viewpoint discrimination or discrimination based on political views, it also singles out specific topics, like disparate impact liability, as prohibited from receiving federal awards. It also expressly removes language that federal awards should support the public welfare and the environment.

• OMB’s rules are now a requirement: Previously, the OMB gave agencies guidance to assist them in independently running and managing their own programs. This is no longer the case. Under the revised text, all instances of “guidance” have been replaced with language like “regulation” and “requirement.”

• English Only, Foreign Collaboration Discouraged: The revised regulation severely restricts the extent to which foreign organizations may be funded by the U.S. government, adopting what it calls a “domestic first framework”. This is in addition to restrictions on cooperation with “covered entities” like institutions supported by the People’s Republic of China. The language, which is designed to extend limitations placed on NASA to the rest of the government, appears to conflict with carve-outs for science in the CHIPS and Science Act, which expressly permitted research projects that involve reciprocal exchanges of information.
  The overview text of the document also suggests that awardees should not work with organizations that also work with foreign adversaries, which would generally prevent cooperation with almost all of America’s allies and major international organizations like the World Meteorological Organization (aka the folks who coordinate global weather forecasting) and CERN (where US scientists collaborate on the world’s largest particle collider).

• Explicit ban on funding directed towards research on women, people of color, LGBTQ+ communities, and religious minorities: The proposed rule takes aim at DEI, defining it broadly as ‘unlawful discrimination’. This weaponizes civil rights language against the very communities who have been subject to discrimination. The practical implication for science is huge. Research focused on racial equity, health disparities, climate justice— or any projects that incorporate social dimensions or “broader impacts” —will face severe scrutiny or outright elimination. Science funding will be steered towards areas the administration deems aligned with “Gold Standard Science” or national priorities.

• More time spent doing administrative tasks: Despite the Trump Administration’s promise to reduce administrative burden on scientists, the elimination of fixed amount awards and subawards removes tools that make it easier for the government to fund science projects, especially for large collaborations. This change significantly increases the amount of accounting and paperwork done by universities, research hospitals, and their partners. It creates significant extra workload for federal staff, who are now expected to micromanage awards.

• OMB is bracing for lawsuits: One of the most revealing aspects of this 400-page documents is the extraordinary length of the legal justifications around two sections, the broad ban on DEI and gender ideology programs and the expanded power to terminate grants at any moment. This signals that the agency is anticipating strong legal challenges and that its proposed rules are on shaky ground.

Bio - Dr. Colette Delawalla, Stand Up For Science Founder & CEO

Colette Delawalla, PhD, is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Stand Up for Science. Under her leadership, the organization has mobilized thousands of scientists worldwide, supported whistleblowers across federal agencies including the NIH, EPA, NASA, and FEMA, advocated against cuts to federally funded research, launched a campaign calling for the impeachment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and is actively working to secure a pro-science congressional majority in 2026. She earned her PhD in Clinical Psychology from Emory University.

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As we’ve been discussing here Trump is on an extraordinary losing streak - the House voted against him on major Iran and Ukraine bills last week; his ballroom, slush fund, and takeover off the Kennedy Center have been thwarted; a court found his second round of tariffs to be illegal; the wars he and Putin have launched are failing now; Orban fell, and last night pro-Russia forces were routed in an Armenian election; the Pope has become a public antagonist and Xi ate his lunch in Beijing; inflation remains very high here in the US and the Fed is now more likely to raise than lower interest rates; due to his malfeasance screwworm has returned to the US, Ebola is raging in Africa, and measles is becoming great again across the country; his candidate for Iowa governor got beat in his primary last week, and we got the Senate candidate we wanted; he is far more unpopular today than his point in 2018, a blow out election year for Democrats; he is undeniable cognitive and phyiscal decline. His powers are clearly ebbing; a blue wave is forming; he’s lost control of Congress, a dangerous development for a deeply corrupt man; global leaders continue to defy, even mock him…..

So the big blubbery baby man, enraged at his ebbing powers, just lost it on a Meet The Press released yesterday. The most fiery part of the interview is above. You simply must watch it - bile, bloating, burnt orange, insults and an old, addled man clearly in profound decline.

But I want to drill down a bit this morning on the substance of the exchange, the matter that caused Trump to lose his shit and walk off set. His ridiculous insistence that Democrats routinely cheat in elections that Republicans lose, and that we can only win through cheating. In his diseased and terrified mind he needs to lean hard into this argument as a pretense for denying a peaceful transfer of power next January given the way the elections are heading. He has put a ridiculous hack Bill Pulte in charge of ODNI to explicitly help him do this.

So as a dry run to what they are going to try this November they are attempting to turn the slow California vote count into a confirmation of our perpetual rigging of elections. Part of the anger comes from how much investment the right wing noise machine had made in their new Republican heroes in California. Here is some of the fluffery LA mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt had gotten from the Free Press, Bari Weiss’ former publication, for example:

Then this weekend we saw Pratt drop into third, and out of the runoff, in the LA Mayor’s race, and Steve Hilton drop into second in the Governor’s race:

In the interview listen to Trump’s rage as he describes what is happening in California, as if he really believes these late votes are somehow fraudulent and that his two guys are being robbed. They are the words and sentiment of a paranoid madman.

I say that this is a dry run for the Novembers election and its aftermath for how we are seeing the broader right-wing ecosystem both build up the Rs and then shout “rigging” as they fall. Here’s Judd Legum this morning, in his Substack Popular Information, reporting on the role Peter Thiel-backed Polymarket is playing in spreading the “rigging” narrative:

Polymarket, one of the dominant players in the prediction market industry, promotes itself as a source of objective truth. In 2024, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan called his company a “global truth machine“ and bragged the company would be “actually solving misinformation.” After Polymarket became the official prediction market of X, Coplan said the partnership joined together the “two top truth seeking apps on the internet.”

However, as Semafor first reported, in the wake of the California primary election last Tuesday, Polymarket has sponsored posts from far-right influencers on X pushing election conspiracies and disinformation. Popular Information has uncovered a network of at least 16 influencers1, with a collective audience of 13 million, publishing election-related misinformation in posts sponsored by Polymarket.

The conspiracies involve the Los Angeles mayoral primary. Like other California races, all candidates compete in a single primary and the top two candidates advance to the general election. Early returns on election night showed incumbent Karen Bass (D) leading the field and former reality TV star Spencer Pratt (R) in second place. Pratt has gained a following through viral AI-generated videos depicting him as Batman and Bass as the Joker.

But California’s vote-counting process has been slow and later returns have favored another candidate, Nithya Raman (D), over Pratt. Many Californians vote by mail, and these ballots take longer to count. Based on the breakdown of the mail-in ballots, most analysts expect Raman, not Pratt, to advance to the general.

In numerous Polymarket-sponsored posts, far-right influencers, without evidence, claim that Raman’s improving fortunes are evidence of fraud. Former InfoWars correspondent Owen Shroyer, who has over 470,000 followers on X, posted that “California just keeps counting until the Democrat wins.” The post was labeled as a “paid partnership” with Polymarket.

Previously, Shroyer was a named defendant in a defamation lawsuit filed by the family of a child killed at Sandy Hook and was found liable by default. Shroyer was also sentenced to 60 days in jail for his role in the January 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol. “In the months prior to January 6, Shroyer spread election disinformation paired with violent rhetoric to hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of viewers,” prosecutors wrote. “Shroyer helped create January 6.”

Here’s what disinfo analyst Renee DiResta wrote about what the right has built around Pratt in a new, remarkable analysis:

The Pratt feed really was inescapable. In certain parts of X and TikTok, he was once again as much a fixture as he was on the gossip blogs during his reality-TV heyday. He has more than a million followers on X. A fan-made AI video casting Pratt as Batman and Karen Bass as the Joker pulled more than 5 million views; another, featuring pilates moms confessing they were voting for Pratt, did nearly two million. The campaign barely bothered with traditional paid media, leaning on clips and boosting fan-made content while his rivals spent on TV. The Extremely Online right-wing influencer machine boosted him (for better or worse; Steve Bannon presciently remarked that he would endorse him but didn’t want to hurt him in LA).

When your feed is wall-to-wall Pratt — clips, endorsements, memes, weird AI propaganda — it is easy to slide from “Pratt is popular online” to “Pratt is popular.” But a clip with three million views just tells you the clip did numbers online, and presumably a lot of people who liked it are nowhere near Los Angeles. The engagement number alone does not tell you much about how a city of millions will fill out their ballots.

I pulled up polling data to see where the numbers were as Pratt’s campaign went viral. Polling experts, please correct me in the comments if I’m wrong, but as far as I can tell, Pratt advanced from about 14% in the March UC Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll to 22% in their final survey. That final poll had Bass at 26% and Nithya Raman at 25%. The only survey that ever showed him ahead was a 400-person McLaughlin & Associates poll — a Republican pollster — that contradicted every other survey of the race but Breitbart touted it. As the clips spread online, Pratt’s unfavorability climbed from 28% in March, when most likely Angeleno voters had no opinion of him at all, to 57% by late May. (Raman’s recognition increased, and her favorability climbed.) I went back and looked at Zohran Mamdani, who also dominated social media on his way to actually winning New York; his online momentum did show up as positive trends in the polls.

But the extremely online MAGAsphere on X seem to have equated high online engagement with high odds that Spencer Pratt was going to win, or make it to a runoff. The former was always a serious long shot. This is Los Angeles! Pratt is a Republican candidate, with President Trump’s public blessing, running in a city where GOP registration is under 15%. The last Republican mayor of Los Angeles was elected in 1993, and left office in 2001. Most people in LA hate Trump. They may be very frustrated with Bass and very, very reluctantly voting for her again, but it’s unrealistic to believe they would elect Pratt in a landslide. A runoff seemed possible, but the third candidate had to be considered.

So did they take the loss like adults? Well, consider this post by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Quote-tweeting a post about Pratt’s declining odds on Polymarket, he wrote that California “keeps dumping votes,” that the ballot drops “always seem to go one way,” and asked whether officials were counting “until you get the result you want.”

The presence of McLaughlin here, a Trump-affiliated pollster, is significant. For McLaughlin just played a similar role in the recent Hungarian elections - creating fraudulent, “narrative” polling to create an illusion of strength for Orban’s illiberal party Fidesz:

The use of fake polling to drive a false narrative was at the core of why a red wave never came in 2022; and it is something that we just saw executed in the New Jersey Governor’s race last year. Look at the polling in the final weeks in New Jersey - every right aligned pollster has the race close, within margin of error. Every independent poll has Sherill with solid leads, outside of the margin of error. Like in Hungary the right aligned polls were off by more than 10 points, something that is very, very hard to do if you are doing legitimate polling - and they were all off by 10+ points. All of them.

Here’s how one of the largest news channels in the New York media market, PIX11, owned by right-aligned Nexstar, which also owns the Hill, played their final poll which ended up being off by 13 points.

And of course these right-aligned polls showing Sherril weak and Ciattarelli strong were heavily amplified by the right aligned media in the closing weeks. I know for concerns about Sherrill stumbling were voiced here daily even though all the public polls showed her with solid, out the margin sturdy leads.

Here’s how Di Resta describes this process of manufacturing a false understanding of an election in her terrific piece:

The LA mayoral primary’s devolution into conspiracy tropes, Polymarket screenshots, and Grok fact-checks is useful because it shows a script we are going to see again in 2026: viral candidate overperforms in the feed, ordinary ballot-counting reveals a different reality, and the people who conflated engagement with votes decide that there’s something suspicious about the count.

Network scientists at USC explained it years ago: your social media feed is dominated by the loudest, best-connected nodes. Their opinions can feel like the majority consensus even when it’s not. You might be thinking you’re seeing the population, when you’re really seeing the loudest people. The term they gave for misjudging where prevailing opinion is based on what you see around you is called the majority illusion.

Using these tactics Republicans successfully created a false impression of a red wave in 2022 (see this NYT analysis “The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative” about the role of fake polling in the 2022 elections). I think these tactics played an important role in helping drive the late-breaking vote to Trump in 2024, as fueled by hundreds of right-aligned polls Trump took the lead in the right-aligned RealClearPolitics national average around October 26, 2024 — by just 0.1 points, with Trump at 48.4% and Harris at 48.3%. Notably, the last time Trump had led in the RCP average before that was August 4, the day before Harris formally secured the Democratic nomination. So Harris led the RCP national average for essentially the entire period from mid-August through late October — roughly 11 weeks — before Trump edged ahead in the final 10 days. The narrative in right-aligned media in the closing days of 2024 - using all these tactics described above - was Trump surging/strong/winning, Harris declining/weak/losing. Here’s how Polymarket was selling the 2024 election in the closing days, data like in LA this year, was amplified through paid ads from Polymarket throughout social media (I saw them all the time in those finals days). Crypto adjacent voters across the country - young men - were flooded with “Trump is winning” on social media in the final days of 2024:

Let’s look at how late voters broke in 2024. From the Exit Polls:

Here is how the main forecasters saw the election in the closing days - close, competitive, slight lean to Harris and certainly not “Trump winning”:

While these illicit tactics did not work in Hungary, or in LA, or in New Jersey, they did work in 2022 and I think they did play a role in 2024. And let’s be clear - the right wouldn’t be doing all this stuff unless they believed it was something that can help them win.

Trump knows he is losing, and his powers are ebbing - hence the rage in the Meet The Press interview - and we have to expect he is going to do whatever it takes to win this November and prevent a peaceful transfer of power in January. More on that in our new series, Winning In An Evolving Battlefield, and more to come on that from us here at Hopium in the coming days. For what they are doing around Spencer Pratt now should be seen as a warm up for what is come this November and afterwards, and we cannot once again get caught napping or unaware…..

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, elections to win, and a peaceful transfer of power to ensure, together! - Simon

N.B. - After posting this morning I was reminded of this very relevant story from the NYT just before the 2024 election:

Some excerpts:

The torrent of polls began arriving just a few weeks ago, one after the other, most showing a victory for Donald J. Trump.

They stood out amid the hundreds of others indicating a dead heat in the presidential election. But they had something in common: They were commissioned by right-Overall, Mr. Trump has made slight gains in the national polling average over the past two weeks, and the battleground state polling averages have tightened. Still, the race remains uncommonly close.

That has not stopped these polls from shaping the broader narrative in the race’s final stretch. The averages on the popular aggregation site RealClearPolitics, in particular, are widely cited on social media.

Unlike its competitors, RealClearPolitics does not filter out low-quality polls, incorporating results from pollsters with a poor track record that other aggregators reject. It also does not weight its averages. One of its pages displays a map of the electoral college with a winner projected for each state, even those the site currently deems to be tossups.

That “no tossups” map currently shows Mr. Trump winning every swing state except Michigan and Wisconsin.

RealClearPolitics did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Influential accounts have been sharing screenshots of RealClearPolitics’ scarlet-dominated Electoral College map, often paired with images of the Polymarket betting average, which currently shows Mr. Trump with a 65 percent chance of winning.

Two weeks ago, Elon Musk shared the map with his 202 million followers on X, writing that the “trend will continue” and that Democrats are losing. Early voting data, a fickle predictive metric, has also been cited by Trump supporters as further evidence of his impending triumph.leaning groups with a vested interest in promoting Republican strength.

These surveys have had marginal, if any, impact on polling averages, which either do not include the partisan polls or give them little weight. Yet some argue that the real purpose of partisan polls, along with other expectation-setting metrics such as political betting markets, is directed at a different goal entirely: building a narrative of unstoppable momentum for Mr. Trump.

The partisan polls appear focused on lifting Republican enthusiasm before the election and — perhaps more important — cementing the idea that the only way Mr. Trump can lose to Vice President Kamala Harris is if the election is rigged. Polls promising a Republican victory, the theory runs, could be held up as evidence of cheating if that victory does not come to pass.

“Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger,” said Joshua Dyck, who directs the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. “Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right.”

And…..

Overall, Mr. Trump has made slight gains in the national polling average over the past two weeks, and the battleground state polling averages have tightened. Still, the race remains uncommonly close.

That has not stopped these polls from shaping the broader narrative in the race’s final stretch. The averages on the popular aggregation site RealClearPolitics, in particular, are widely cited on social media.

Unlike its competitors, RealClearPolitics does not filter out low-quality polls, incorporating results from pollsters with a poor track record that other aggregators reject. It also does not weight its averages. One of its pages displays a map of the electoral college with a winner projected for each state, even those the site currently deems to be tossups.

That “no tossups” map currently shows Mr. Trump winning every swing state except Michigan and Wisconsin.

RealClearPolitics did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Influential accounts have been sharing screenshots of RealClearPolitics’ scarlet-dominated Electoral College map, often paired with images of the Polymarket betting average, which currently shows Mr. Trump with a 65 percent chance of winning.

Two weeks ago, Elon Musk shared the map with his 202 million followers on X, writing that the “trend will continue” and that Democrats are losing. Early voting data, a fickle predictive metric, has also been cited by Trump supporters as further evidence of his impending triumph.

A few things tonight. First, I don’t ask you to watch him very often but this one is a must watch. From Meet The Press today. Ugly, angry, petulant, disrespectful, delusional - a leader in profound decline:

Next, I’ve been getting a lot of questions about Graham Platner. Here’s a version of something I wrote in the Hopium chat yesterday in response to some subscriber questions and comments……

There are strong feelings here in the Hopium community about Graham Platner, for and against. So it is my hope that we have our discussion about him and this challenging moment as we do all our discussions - respectfully, earnestly, truthfully, strategically. For we all want the same thing - to defeat MAGA - even if we have different ideas on how to do so.

My basic take is this: 1) there is a reason party committees have a bias towards candidates who have won before, and have been vetted. As a general rule it is hard for first time candidates to win, and it gets harder the higher the office a first time candidate seeks 2) What’s happened this past week will make it harder and much more expensive for Platner to win, and thus could impact other competitive Senate races. It’s no small thing 3) Let’s see what happens in Tuesday’s primary, how effective he and his campaign are in managing the crisis, and how polling shakes out in the coming days.

But to be clear what happened this week is not about a former girlfriend, a Republican activist, trashing him as some have tried to argue here. It is about the whole series of things we are being asked to accept - an ugly tattoo, terrible Reddit postings, disturbing staff turnover, serial infidelity in the early days of a new marriage, and then the stuff that came out in the NYT this week. Taken together it is a lot, regardless of his other virtues. And Mainers will come to know every bit of it through tens of millions of dollars of brutal ads coming very soon…..

My advice to everyone here - do your own homework. Read the articles. Come to your own conclusions, and don’t let anyone bully you into any take, one way or the other. Let’s be open minded - we don’t know what is going to happen. But as this race could determine control of the Senate next year it is very material to our work here (and we’ve invested a lot of money in Maine this cycle) so of course it is something we will be discussing, debating, and working to better understand - as we do all the big things happening in our politics.

Finally, Hopium paid subscribers will gather this Wednesday, June 10th at 7pm ET.

We’ll follow the usual format - I’ll offer up my latest take on things and then open it up for questions until 8pm ET. For those who can’t make it live our discussion will be recorded and released on the Hopium site Thursday morning.

If you are not yet a paid subscriber and want to join us tomorrow you can sign up here or below.

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