231 Comments
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Oct 16Edited
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Cindy H's avatar

I haven't been notified about my ballot - dropped it off Sunday in California. Hoping they have been inundated.

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Cindy H's avatar

Just got notified - ballot collected and counted!

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Oct 16
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Oct 16
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Pete's avatar

I think it's a safe bet that this was a political calculation on his part and not a decision to thumb his nose at us. That said, I respect your decision to direct your support to the candidates you feel are deserving of it.

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Nicholas Dedi's avatar

Enjoy seeing Sheehy in the Senate then. Tester has been there for us in an extremely difficult state. He's doing what he needs to survive.

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Janice Fahy's avatar

I've been donating monthly to Tester for 2 years and I'm glad that I have. I'll not count him out yet, but I would happily trade him for Senator Colin Allred. Still, I'd rather just ADD Allred to our Senate majority and I think Tester is a very good egg.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Let’s elect both Alred and Tester. And Mucarsel-Powell as well!

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Rich LaVoy's avatar

Mary, Jon Tester has always been with the Dems when the chips are down. The “Happy Warrior” has been amazing over the years to win a Democratic Senate seat in an ultra red state. With an abortion measure on the ballot and Jon Testor’s support of the measure, he is standing up for the issues important to us. We need him back in the Senate for all the issues we’ll be facing like judicial nominations. Tester has successfully walked this tight rope by knowing his constituents. Kamala Harris understands this by the way. Don’t we too hard on him, we really need him.

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Claudia Miller's avatar

Amy, my input is - maybe Tester should have accepted all of the grassroots activism that we wanted to send his way. In these times it takes more than the old modality of actions, including the money. I guess this is my day for the wonderment of it all.

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Linda (Evanston IL)'s avatar

Abortion is on the ballot there. Will that issue help Jon?

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Amy I am taking this post down for the entire Dem ecosystem including us is behind Tester 100%.. Thank you.

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Amy Engebretson's avatar

Thank you Simon, I am glad to hear that!

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ArcticStones's avatar

Colin Allred demolished Ted Cruz in their debate last night! Clips are circulating on the Internet. Here is the full "Texas Senate Debate".

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=texas+senate+debate&t=newext&atb=v238-1&iax=videos&ia=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DZMHN4puJPsQ

(On this link you can play the video directly in DuckDuckGo. The YouTube video that I first linked to last night was taken down.)

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Freda's avatar

Thx! Hoping for that review of his debate!

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Deborah Potter's avatar

It was awesome! Even better if you mute Cruz and play Kamala videos until Colin Allred starts speaking again.

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Brian's avatar

I was wondering how that would go. On one hand, I've heard Cruz described as a skilled debater. On the other hand, I've heard him described as widely disliked and seen him fail time and again to secure the presidential nomination he clearly thinks he deserves. So if your own party doesn't like you and you're the least popular Republican in Texas, what good are your debating skills?

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ArcticStones's avatar

I believe it was Lindsey Graham who quipped: "If someone shot Ted Cruz on the Senate floor, none of his Republican colleagues would testify against the shooter."

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Patrick's avatar

I think Al Franken said something like:

I actually like Ted Cruz more than my colleagues do. And I hate Ted Cruz.

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Cindy H's avatar

I remember this quote - yup Al Franken.

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Cindy H's avatar

I've heard that Lindsey said this.

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Patrick's avatar

Cruz got dragged. It's going to leave a mark. His smug demeanor was just weird and off-putting.

Allred did everything he could to win the race. He left everything on the field, and if he doesn't win, then Texas isn't yet ready to elect a Democrat.

He's got a shot and I hope he wins it.

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Grant Gerke's avatar

The weird taint helps.

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Ashley AD's avatar

It was a thing of beauty when Colin called out Ted for being in a supply closet - much like Bunker Boy trump during the George Floyd protests - while Colin was getting ready to defend his colleagues. Here's hoping the good people of TX kick Ted's ass back to Cancun.

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Patrick's avatar

Then that fucker Cruz lied about it. Despite the fact that Allred got the story FROM CRUZ'S OWN BOOK.

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ArcticStones's avatar

PENNSYLVANIA EARLY VOTE UPDATE

📥 631,725 votes cast

– 🔵 DEM: 416,239 - 40.6% returned

– 🔴 GOP: 158,486 - 31.8% returned

– 🟡 IND: 57,000 - 27.6% returned

VBM Splits: 🔵 65.9% / 🔴 25.1% / 🟡 9%

🔷 DEM firewall: +257,753

📈 Return Edge: D+8.8

https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1846547227788853730#m

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Beth Kephart's avatar

And I do believe, I truly do believe, that many of those GOP returned ballots are with us. I live in PA. There's a rumble out here.

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Russell Owens's avatar

Thanks Beth, that sort of feedback is very encouraging.

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Patrick's avatar

They will be. And there will be many who do not vote for Trump, even if they do not crossover to Harris. I think we will take more of the independents too.

The lead we have I am sure is bigger than stated above, > 257,753.

Gotta keep grinding though. I will do more ballot curing shifts.

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David H's avatar

To be clear, the firewall goal is (at least) +390,000?

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ArcticStones's avatar

I’ve seen various numbers: the one you cited, 450k, 500k...

For timely data and great analysis of Pennsylvania elections, I highly recommend following Joshua Smithley, and of course Tom Bonier & Simon. Here is the Nitter workaround to Smithley’s Tweets.

https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq

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Deborah Potter's avatar

Simon uses the term "Get to 55” to expand the Democratic coalition from Biden’s 51.4% in 2020 to 55% in 2024. https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/memo-get-to-55-expanding-our-coalition

As of Sept 30th , 186.5 million Americans nationwide are registered and 47% have declared a party affiliation. 36 million voters are registered Republicans and 45.1 million are registered Democrats. However, it is the likely voters (vs. all registered voters) that counts. https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-voters-have-a-party-affiliation/

Let's GOTV!!!

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Alison F.'s avatar

Can someone explain what the firewall is and why it's significant? Thanks!

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ArcticStones's avatar

Historically, more Republicans vote on Election Day. As I understand it, the "firewall" is the Early Vote advantage that Democrats will have (Dems minus Reps). A firewall of 500,000 Early Votes in Pennsylvania puts Democrats in a good position going into Election Day, as it’s very difficult for Republicans to compensate for such a large deficit.

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Alison F.'s avatar

Thanks! So I'm guessing the goalpost for the firewall takes into account past Republican advantage on election day. Makes sense.

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Cathy's avatar

Very informative, thank you

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Cindy H's avatar

So, we are in really good shape so far, right?

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ArcticStones's avatar

I’m really eager to hear Tom Bonier’s and SImon’s take on this. But I think I’m hearing positive noises from Joshua Smithley – and to my amateur eyes the trend is looking good. One thing that seems really positive, and not just in Pennsylvania, is how many more women are voting.

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Shelley Riskin's avatar

OK, I'm going to ask 2 stupid questions: What is a Dem firewall, what does it mean to be +257,753---it seems like a good thing!--and what does VBM mean? I assume that Return Edge means that Dem early votes are =8.8 to GOP? Thanks.

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Patrick's avatar

VBM = vote by mail.

The "firewall" states are really just the blue states we should win. In this case PA has traditionally been viewed as a firewall, until Trump won it in 2016. We win our firewall states we win the election, this year WI, MI, PA + NE-2

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Patrick's avatar

The +257,753 is just counting Democratic early votes and subtracting Republican early votes.

I think it represents a lower bound on our lead, because 1) many GOP voters are not voting for Trump and some will vote Harris, and 2) it doesn't count independents, who I think we will win.

So we are ahead by a number greater than 257,753. How much we are really ahead of course no one knows with precision.

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Robin Katzenstein's avatar

Let’s hope Trump melts down like the Wicked Witch of the West!

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Russell Owens's avatar

To be fair the WWotW had a lot more charm.

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Pete's avatar

She was certainly more competent, albeit malevolent.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Which brings us to Trump’s only redeeming quality: His malevolence is tempered by massive incompetence.

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Gordon Herzog's avatar

She was green and she OWNED it!

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Emily Elliot's avatar

I needed that guffaw 😂!

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Donna PG's avatar

And was better-looking.

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Madam Geoffrin's avatar

Signed up for Saturday.

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Madam Geoffrin's avatar

Signed up for Saturday

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Deborah Potter's avatar

Wicked Warlock of the Mess

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Jayne M's avatar

After seeing the musical "Wicked" for the first time ever last year, I came to love the WWW, aka "Elphaba," so much that we named a puppy we adopted soon afterwards "Elphaba" or "Elphy" for short. Spoiler alert but TFG's melt down wickedness is more like the Wizard! 😉

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Rosemary Sellers's avatar

Ballot cure phone bank for Pennysylvania: https://www.mobilize.us/2024pavictory/event/676131/ lots of dates and times to sign up!

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Arne's avatar

Hey guys, love all the great work this community does day in and day out. One quick OT question from a European: what is your read on the current situation around the arab American vote, especially in an important swing state like Michigan? I read some contrasting analysis today and now i am curious what you guys think. Thanks a lot

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Beth Kephart's avatar

I think this video is an important video, from one of the leaders of the Uncommitted movement. They have not endorsed Trump. But they are saying, Don't let him win. I've shared it widely and I encourage you to do that, too. It helps. https://x.com/uncommittedmvmt/status/1843642889823498488

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Ellen Thomas's avatar

Really appreciate that video, Beth. Makes me feel a little better.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Can't reference "contrasting analysis" here at Hopium without linking to it. The bottom line - of the 5.2m votes in MI in 2020 Biden received 90,000 votes from Arab/Muslim Americans. The size of this community has been exaggerated; Harris is working hard to engage with the community; we are arguably polling better in MI than any other state and early vote there is stronger than any other state; and of course everything that is happening in the Middle East is tragic.

As someone who is not voting or working to win this election I would appreciate that in the future you not try to stir up debate here on divisive issues and let us go to work to win the election please. Thank you.

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Arne's avatar

Thanks for your insightful answer Simon, and sorry for not following the community guidelines, won’t happen again. Wish you all the best and keep up the amazing work

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Kathy's avatar

DeSantis has waged a full-on fascist attack against Amend 4/reproductive rights in Florida.He has sent election police to homes of those who signed the petition, used our tax dollars promoting disinformation on a state w-site,threatened news stations airing a reproductive freedom ad featuring Caroline,a malignant brain tumor survivor and just fined Amend 4 organizers 328 K.

Texting and phone banking opportunities available to help Fl get out the early vote and protect reproductive rights ! 📲

Statewide Phonebank: Get Out the Early Vote · Florida for All

https://www.mobilize.us/floridaforall/event/623668/

Text Bank with Catholics for Choice · Yes On 4 Florida

https://www.mobilize.us/yes4florida/event/694503/

Text Bank with Men 4 Choice · Mobilize

https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/702175/

Unrelated but you just have to love Jessica Tarlov smacking down the Faux News hosts with the facts.The look on their faces never gets olds.

https://www.instagram.com/decodingfoxnews/reel/DBGP41KxOGy/

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ArcticStones's avatar

Tarlov is so good! I’m genuinely surprised that Fox keeps inviting her – and Buttigieg.

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Deborah Potter's avatar

and in a few hours ... Kamala!

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Fisher's avatar

She is actually on the staff. She is one of the Five.

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ArcticStones's avatar

This I did not know. Embarrassing! Shows how little I know about the inner workings of Fox.

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Fisher's avatar

Harold Ford too, guy's gotta earn a paycheck. If Harold had won that TN senate seat, he might have been the first Black president. BUt he blew it. I don't watch Fox but caught a little of Gutfeld and the Five the other night, Tarlov was off IIRC, and I found Pirro and him intolerable. And I am old enough to remember when Pirro was a respected prosecutor in NY. Then too, so was Rudy.

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Brandon's avatar

Tarlov does an excellent job representing the liberal perspective while being heavily outnumbered. She believes it's important to get her voice and perspective heard by even Fox News listeners and I, for one, commend her for it.

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Daniel Solomon's avatar

Here in Florida, Al Cardenas, former state Republican chair and muchos otros have flipped. Today, more. https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/10/16/three-new-co-chairs-join-republicans-for-harris-in-florida-one-calls-trump-a-blustering-name-calling-bully/

We have the capacity to flip Trump 2020 voters. . https://rvat.org/

Place comments on social media...."Not suckers or losers" to vets groups, military, military dependents, history sites. Vote vets has thousands of testimonials of 2020 Trump voters that flipped. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans or active duty members on Facebook, and 12.5 million family members of veterans or active duty members on Facebook.

Trump hates dogs. Pet/animal charity sites.

Trump stole from kids with cancer.

Don't slit your own throat.

In your gut you know he's nuts.

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Jerry Eckert's avatar

Simon

You made a comment concerning poly market that led me to believe that Republicans are influencing this “betting” outcome. That was the first I heard of that and frankly, I was/am concerned about their and Kalshi's betting, which has recently moved very strongly towards Trump.

Would you please help me understand?

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Ben H's avatar

Betting markets aren’t predictive. Election gamblers aren’t a representative sample of the electorate. The bettors don’t have access to special information. The odds easily swayed by large bets.

The belief is that republicans are treating polymarket and others just like another poll and spending money to drive them in favor of Trump. I’d pay them no attention.

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Shmoobly's avatar

Hi, I'm not Simon, but just DMWL and all will be fine!!

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Russell Owens's avatar

Hi Jerry, If I were running a betting site I'd want the punters to pour money into the eventual loser. So, if the money is going on one candidate more than the other that may not be a good sign in terms of the vote. Just a thought!

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ArcticStones's avatar

GEORGIA ON MY MIND!

Yesterday, 311,826 people cast In-Person Early Votes in Georgia, blowing way past their previous record from 2020 when 136,000 votes were cast on their first day of In-Person voting.

GEORGIA’s Secretary of State has an excellent website detailing their Early Vote. In addition to exact numbers for VBM (Absentee) and In-Person Early Vote, you can look at gender data, age groups, ethnicity, sorting by county as well as for the state as a whole.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout

PS. If you click "Early Voting In Person)", they’re even showing today’s live count, obviously with some lag. Impressive!

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ArcticStones's avatar

As of 12:30 today, over 120,000 more Georgians have voted in person!

EDIT: As of 3:30pm, an additional 209,000 Georgians have voted Early In-Person today.

EDIT #2, 5:30pm: So far today, almost 260,000 more Georgians have voted in person. An hour and a half to go before polls close, by which time we may be very close to 300,000.

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Nick's avatar

any update on party or gender?

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ArcticStones's avatar

Georgia does not report party registration. I am really looking forward to Tom Bonier’s "Modeled Party" breakdown for the state. I think we’re in for a very pleasant surprise!

As mentioned above, you can see gender data, ethnicity, vote by age, vote per county and more at Georgia’s Election Data Hub. Great site.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout

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Deborah Potter's avatar

Tom is doing some posting by state like PA here. https://www.threads.net/@tombonier/post/DA-_S3apNoO He says unaffiliated voters in PA are more Dem than they were in 2020 and that in MI The gender gap (women +11.9) is currently bigger than the gap was at this point in 2020 and 2022. Found GA recently posted on Target Early.

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Deborah Potter's avatar

OK, found it as of 9/30/2024 Modeled Partisanship

GA Democrat 47.6%, Republican 33.12%, unaffiliated 19.21%

https://targetsmart.com/the-targetsmart-voter-registration-dashboard/ and I sent you the graphic comparing to 2022, 2020. Much better now than 2020.

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Cathy's avatar

I'm willing to bet that former President Jimmy Carter voted for Harris! Love that man...

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Pete's avatar

There's no doubt about it! His family said a month or two ago that he had expressed that he hoped to live long enough to vote for her.

We went last month to his 100th birthday musical celebration at The Fox here in Atlanta. There was a diverse lineup of musicians and celebrities paying tribute to him (including my childhood hero, Braves legend Dale Murphy). There was a lot of love on display for our 39th president!

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ArcticStones's avatar

Yup. By the way, the first presidential candidate Carter voted for was FDR!

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Vickie Berry's avatar

Yes, it’s been reported he did cast his vote for Harris!

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Deborah Potter's avatar

https://wapo.st/3NsKYB3 It's kind of a sad picture, but here's the WaPo report about former President Carter.

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Karen McCreary's avatar

Has any one else experienced difficulty with the link in today's posting to register for tomorrow night's call ? My link sent me to the WisDem's act blue site.

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MaryNYC's avatar

I voted by mail in New York City this past weekend. I’m an Independent and voted for the Democratic candidate in every Federal, State, and local race.

Let’s hope Harris/Walz wins in an electoral landslide.

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Monica's avatar

I did the one hour virtual relational organizing training and think it can very effective in helping Harris win the election. The link is below. They have trainings everyday.

https://bit.ly/ReachSwingStates

Also I voted with my mom husband in Cobb County Georgia today!!

And I donated to Gallego.

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Jerome Weiss's avatar

Indeed a great ad. We need to admire her persistent positivity. A true leader.

Hoping there’s some way the sheepish media will sooner than later get its collective head out of the trough of garbage it’s being fed. But I have no illusions. It takes some courage and principle….which Kamala more than makes up for.

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Barb Termaat's avatar

Hi Simon, I’m curious why the Elissa Slotkin senate race in MI is not on our list.

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Russell Owens's avatar

A wonderful update Simon, thank you. Hopefully the impact of the lies about the responses to the hurricanes are now also receding and the debate returns to normal. At least as normal as any election can be with an immoral, philandering, thieving, lying, corrupt, narcissistic sociopath. In 3 weeks time we will all be able to breath more easily - for now my heartfelt best wishes to my American soulmates!

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