What are we all doing this Labor of Love for your country weekend? I'm running canvasses and hosting a voter registration at a local event. Gotta make sure NC crosses over to Blue from purple. Let's go!!
Russell we have become bluer and we are going to run up the margins statewude and flex on those who think we're in the bag for all the MAGA losers. Whatever anyone in the hopium world can do to help is massively important and we thank you!
I'm in NC and there are lots of registered Democrats who didn't vote in 2020 plus there are lots of residents who are eligible to vote that hadn't registered. In addition, there are lots of newcomers to NC moving in from other states - predominently younger people, many with college degrees. So yes the changing demographics favor Democrats - we just need to improve the turnout.
I live in the county with the highest population of Democrats in the state, so we are ground zero for Democratic GOTV efforts - this was the plan even before Biden passed the baton to Kamala Harris. Now with the change at the head of the ticket, the GOTV job has gotten much easier, but still a fight. In addition, the GOP chose a deeply flawed candidate to run for Governor and his Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, has a lead well outside of the margin of error.
Fun Fact: NC has 100 counties and if you ranked them in order based on number of Democrats (high to low), my county (Mecklenburg) has more Democrats than the SUM of the 55 counties with the fewest Democrats.
I'm down in Mecklenburg County and my local Democratic group hosted an event last night. The purpose was to assemble yard signs and write postcards (for those of us who weren't interested in working on the signs). We had an overwhelming response. All the signs got assembled within the first half hour or so, so everybody decending on the room where we writing postcards. I had volunteered to coordinate the postcarders and I was figuring on maybe a dozen people. I think we had about 4 dozen. The event was scheduled to last 2 hours, but we were finished with everything in an hour and a half. (The woman who planned the event underestimated the number of postcards to bring because "Hey, who's going to show up on Friday night before Labor Day?"
I have also signed up for a phone bank tomorrow evening. Not sure how many people I will reach, but I think this one allows us to leave messages, which I like.
There is another event next Saturday - a candidate forum, followed by a bunch of canvasses for 2 battleground legislative districts - HD-105 (currently held by the traitor Tricia Cotham who fipped (D) to (R)) and SD-42 (an open seat because Wesley Harris is running for State Treasurer). They are both critical races (as you likely know) toward denying the GOP a supermajority! The alternate activity to canvassing will be postcarding again and I volunteered to help coordinate that part. Am I a glutton for punishment or what? (Just kidding!)
Very good analysis as always, Simon. One quick question: is there any national phonebanking going on for the Blue Dot in Nebraska, especially as relates to Harris-Walz?
there are no downturns or upturns. Polls have margins of error and bounce around. Everything is remarkably consistent right now - we have a 3-4 pt lead nationally, and we are tied or ahead in all 7 battleground states.
Hi Simon, sorry in advance for being verbose but if you have a chance, I would love to hear your thoughts on two Senate races. One - Montana with Jon Tester and two - Alsobrooks vs Hogan in MD. Tester has apparently been polling outside the margin of error - behind - against Sheehey. I'm not one to rely on polls too much as I think the polling industry as a whole is broken and fragmented although the particular polling data you refer us to is rather based in more realism than many many others. For example, Nate Silver is NOT a pollster any of us should look to for reliable data or guidance. Anyway, I digress.
I think it's fair to say the Senate can be won or lost on either Montana and/or Maryland this election. Montana is expected to be an extremely tight race. Do you have any optimistic insight/data that keeps a Tester win within reach? Also, I remember seeing it written on here the other day DC isn't as invested in the MD Senate race. If that is true, I personally find that to be a real potential error as a Marylander myself. Though I am a staunch Democrat, I am not oblivious to the fact Hogan is a uniquely popular candidate in a deep blue state like mine.
Hogan is more popular than Alsobrooks however, Alsobrooks as we know, has a significant edge in several ways. She ran on women's healthcare which clinched her impressive primary win. She is heavily backed by both poplar Governor Moore and Harris herself (as I was unaware Harris was a mentor to her). As I've said before, it is a different scenario for a blue state to elect a Moderate Republican Governor than it is for a blue state to send to the Senate, a Republican period for national representation. That said, Hogan is one of the few candidates who CAN put the MD Senate race 'in play' and that should NOT be taken for granted. In our most consequential election yet, none of us can afford any sense of complacency.
Both Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are in actual jeopardy of losing their Senate seats which is encouraging (though I'm not yet confident to say Harris can flip either FL or TX just yet although FL is more so, in play than it has been before). However, losing Montana and/or MD only works to our benefit in the end if either Cruz and/or Scott lose their seats as well. The same goes for potentially flipping the seats of Josh Hawley or Marsha Blackburn. However, Tester and Alsobrooks SHOULD win their senate races and though I have often prided myself on being a relentless optimist (as you've surely seen from a number of my past comments here on the community page) -- I cannot lie and say I don't have a natural fear towards the possibility of losing either of those seats.
Yes, the goal above anything else is to ensure 45 never sees the inside of the WH ever again. Harris winning is the most important factor period, I get that. However, if we don't have the senate but manage to flip the House, it is naïve for us to assume we can just pick it up in 2026. No Senate -- no codification of Abortion rights, same sex marriage, and voting rights. It's that black and white. Any positive and/or constructive feedback you can provide on these matters, I would greatly appreciate. Again, I am immensely proud to be in this fight with the Hopium Family. I am currently awaiting further communication from leaders amongst the campaign here on the home front in MD. I will say, it has been humbling for me to help get fellow Marylanders excited about Harris. I don't often brag but it is nice to hear from family and friends 'I was right all along' when I called it five years ago, Harris becoming the first Female President and was the most underestimated political figure of our time -- next to President Biden himself. Onward to win and win big God willing.
Great thoughts, Simon. Question for this group: in what seems like an eternity ago, I signed up to write *many* postcards, not specifying a state. I received 500 postcards for Ohio. I’m valiantly making my way through the list, but from what I am seeing, Ohio is not in play - so am I wasting my time and money doing this? It’s just a generic message about getting out to vote. Thanks, Everyone!
I can't speak for anyone else, but Brown leads and hopefully Harris can draft on his wind. I got a message from Blue Ohio this morning describing how down races are outperforming. https://blueohio.org/
You’re definitely not wasting your time. I found out recently that Ohio has a gerrymandering amendment on the ballot. I was born and raised in Cincinnati, Ohio. My relatives even questioned the effectiveness of voting. None were aware of the gerrymandering amendment. Ohio voted against the super majority for amendments just recently. That’s how they overturned their strict abortion ban. They also have Sherrod Brown, D-Incumbent for Senate, on the ballot. He needs every vote to retain his seat. Look at “Gym” Jordan’s district. It is a joke. It snakes around Cincinnati on PURPOSE. I’ve convinced all of my relatives to vote because of these issues. I’ve got 100 postcards for Ohio going out this weekend also. Down ballot issues are IMPORTANT. thanks so much Courtney. I’ve also done 600 postcards but we need to leave it all on the field. When my daughters and granddaughters ask me what I did in 2024, I will look them in the eye, hug them and say everything that I could possibly contribute. Hopium on my friend!
Agree-Ohio needs all the help it can get. Mitch McConnell is flooding it with dark money and a millionaire candidate to try to unseat Sherrod Browns seat. He’s leading but it’s a truly appalling amount of $$$ being thrown at this race. David Pepper on Substack has a lot to share about Ohio Courtney.
The local down ballot races in Ohio are important too! Please keep doing your list of voters since they were probably not given to anyone else. Every GOTV effort - everywhere- is important! Ohio will eventually swing back to a more competitive State in the future, so you are helping lay the groungwork.
His main focus here is Arizona, but here is what Snyder writes about Ohio:
"The way American elections are structured, we count state by state. And so the most important states become those that either candidate can plausibly win. Historically the bellwether was Ohio. I think Ohio will be in play this year, and will spend some of my own October there (more on that soon). I think Florida and Texas could also go either way."
Thank you very much. I will, however, respectfully disagree with Snyder - no way in hell (make that *heaven*) are Florida and Texas in play. My daughter works on the Colin Allred campaign and they have almost given up over there on beating Ted Cruz. That’s just a small anecdote about the state of play in Texas. Hope I am terribly wrong!
You may be right about Allred, but I think there is a very strong chance that Debbie Mucarsel-Powell beats Rick Scott. In fact I believe it is likely.
Even if Kamala Harris does not win Florida (it’s admittedly a long shot), I do think Democrats will make great progress in down-ticket races, both in Florida’s legislative races and in the state’s Congressional delegation.
Courtney, Thank you for writing so many post cards of Ohio. I am writing Vote Forward letters for NC and NY. It all adds up. I grew up in Florida and have family that lives there. I'm going to agree with Snyder here and say that I see Florida in play. When they got more than 1 million signatures (out of 13 million voters) to put abortion on the ballot, it all changed. Also, last time (2022) there were more than 30 state house races that were uncontested. Republicans ran unopposed. This time (2024), there are zero unopposed seats. Every precinct in Florida will have a local ground game. Debbie can win this.
From what I've heard, current and past elected officials in FL and TX (including Beto O'Rourke) say, piece by piece, they are turning districts blue and not giving up their states. So maybe this election or not, we won't give up, we just keep plugging along!!!
Simon, also worth noting that nearly all pollsters altered polling methods after 2020 to correct for the Trump over-performance in 2016 and 2020. The idea here was to capture the “hidden Trump voters” in the data and to reduce weighting for certain Dem constituencies.
There is a great article out there (sorry, not in position to link) in which Sienna, the NYT pollster, explains how it now (starting after 2020) includes data from folks who don’t complete the entire poll survey and how it now using different weighting in its polls. Apparently, Sienna discovered that the vast majority of incomplete surveys came from Trump voters who actually did vote and excluding the top-line responses from those incomplete surveys caused significant poll error. Same on Emerson. It revamped its polls significantly after 2020 and there is an article out there in which the head data person for Emerson explains such. These are just examples. Polling methods were altered across the board after 2020.
This ties into your comment about Dem over-performing in 2022 and forward. Good chance the polling outfits overcorrected, especially given the Dobbs effect.
Here is a good overview of polling method changes, with several pollsters chiming in. This is not the article I was referring to above, but it still has a quote from Sienna on issues involving incomplete surveys.
The myth of the "hidden Trump voters" in 2016 was just that – a MYTH. It’s stunning that it persists to this day.
No! The 2106 polls were quite accurate. HOWEVER, a meta-analyses of the very latest polls, right before Election Day, show that FBI Director Comey’s announcement about Hillary’s emails actually shifted the race by approx. 5 percentage point. That was enough to hand Trump very narrow wins in several Rustbelt States, and thus victory in the Electoral College – even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 2.9 million votes.
Sorry, I don’t have a link at hand, but I have seen this conclusion from several sources, including the Princeton Election Consortium. Simon Rosenberg may be able to confirm my point: Comey’s announcement decisively shifted the presidential race!
Trump did overperform again in 2020, and pollsters, who had already made what they thought were significant adjustments to account for the mythological "shy Trump voter" made even more adjustments after 2020 to account even more heavily for the allegedly missing Trump voters. They should have realized, when their fixes after 2016 didn't work, that their theory was wrong. Instead, just like Trump, they doubled down, and as a result they underestimated Democratic support in nearly every marquee 2022 race, in a few cases by double digits(!) and have been underestimating Democratic support in every special election and every referendum since while overestimating Trump's support in every primary. None of that has mattered to them because they saw 2022 as just a continuation of the pattern (polling bias in favor of Dems disappears when Trump is not on the ballot) and special elections, referenda, and primaries are not real elections. So they stand a good chance, with our help, of getting embarrassed again on 11/5 :)
Near as I can reckon, pollsters adjusted for Trump but have NOT adjusted their polling models to account for consistent Democratic over-performance and special election victories post-Dobbs.
Another example of outrageous modelling: Nate Silver "adjusts" his results by 2 percentage points to take into account an expected "Harris convention bump", which he expects to subside. In other words, his model "adjustment" is designed to make Kamala Harris’ convention bump invisible!
If you want simple, you might want to take a look at the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC). Their model is based on pure polling averages. Moreover, their code is open so anybody can replicate and critique it. Not so with Nate or 538 – both add a proprietary "secret sauce".
Here is PEC’s analysis of the Nebraska Senate race – with an explanation of why this is the most effective Senate race in which to invest resources (our time and money).
I didn't know Nate was doing that—sheesh. This is why RCP endures despite huge misses--a lot of people just want their polling to be “objective,” meaning just add up the polls and average. In an era where trust in experts is at an all-time low, anything else looks like “gaming” or “putting a thumb on the scale” to folks, which is a problem because as the Ukrainians showed in 2004, polls can be we, the people's protection against stolen elections. Weighting polls based on objective measures of past performance/quality can be justified, provided they're transparent. Slicing two points off someone's average because you “know" it's just convention bounce can"t.
As for adjustments to account for three years of overperformances, as far as I can see you're right, AS--they haven't made any. At all. Even though the explanations for our overperformances really reinforce each other. Was it Dobbs? Was it Jim Crow 2.0? Both turbocharged our ground game, which is key to overcoming suppression, which, in turn, blew up their models.
The Atlantic actually says that in the case of Siena, at least, those incompletes account for less than half the error, and I"m skeptical that (a) they really went through every poll they did (cognitive bias alert); (b) found that only Trump supporters hung up on them (I think anyone who has done phone banking with good lists would find that not credible) (c) accounted for all the potential issues that could affect accuracy, instead of only the most memorable (ie people yelling F you at you and hanging up) eg I think it's been pretty well established that young voters are significantly less likely to answer phones at all, which could easily create a bias in the other direction if you're still using outmoded models of the proportion of young voters who vote.
I'm even more skeptical that every pollster who missed in 2020 had the same problem to the same degree as Siena did. What these latest claims sound like to *me* is an industry still clinging to a hypothesis for which, as Pew has said, there's no evidence, and in 2022, 2023, and 2024 so far, a *lot* of evidence *against.* I understand *why* they're doing it--it's a way to view the problem as something they can control and solve (as opposed to what I consider to the real problem, which only we, the people, and our leaders can address), but that doesn't make it right.
In my opinion, the real cause of the problem, an explanation that fits not only 2016 and 2020, but the polling biases (or lack thereof) in every presidential and congressional election in this century so far, is the dynamics of modern voter suppression. Ie unlike Jim Crow, modern suppression is an arms race between our voters and the Republican Party. In my view, we lost that race in 2016 and 2020 due to extraordinary suppression conditions that we couldn't have predicted or predicted the impact of, not because a lot of zombies unexpectedly appeared out of the swamps.
2016 was the first presidential after the Supremes gutted the VRA in 2013, and was the first "sweeping and systematic' effort by a foreign government to interfere with an American election, interference in favor of the party that overperformed its polling (which, pollsters seem to have forgotten, can just as easily be the result of *under*performance by the opposing party).
2020 was the first election after the end of the consent decree, which Republicans were *very* excited about because it meant they could engage in a lot of unethical and illegal behavior they had to outsource to the Russians in 2016, plus engage a lot of other behavior neither the Russians nor Repos could deploy before. And then there was the pandemic, which either directly or indirectly disproportionately impacted our constituencies (people living in densely populated areas, young voters, voters of color, poor voters) and our campaign (because *we* actually *cared* whether we were spreading a deadly disease eg by knocking on doors or holding rallies in close quarters), all of which the GOP weaponized to the hilt.
The shy Trump voter never made any sense on multiple levels--they're not shy, there's no logical reason why they should only be shy in swing states (where the biggest polling disconnects occurred), etc. etc. etc. Voter suppression does.
As for the other elections in the period, there were relatively few new suppression measures enacted between 2016 and 2018, and the Russians pulled back from their interference, both of which allowed us to catch up in the race, as best evidenced by the extraordinary reality that more than half the Dems' victory margin *in a midterm* was provided by voters *who didn't vote in 2016.*
We won the arms race in 2022 as well because the GOP was so aggressive so soon so publicly after the 2020 election in passing reams of new suppression measures that the Dems were compelled to build what, by 2022, Simon was already calling the greatest ground operation ever created, no doubt benefiting from the experience of leaders like Stacy Abrams, Ben Wikler, and Beto O'Rourke who had been operating in some of the most heavily suppressed states in the country.
2022 should have told pollsters their explanations for 2016 and 2020 were wrong, that the game had changed, but it didn't, as evidenced by the fact that they continued to underestimate Democratic support in every special election in 2023 and 2024, while overestimating Trump's support in every Republican primary. And now, because of the articles we've all been citing, we *know* for a fact that at least some of them are *still* doubling down *again* on their BS theory.
Why did they not "get the memo?" I think they saw 2022 as just a continuation of the pattern, and they've dismissed everything since as just special elections, single‐issue referenda, and primaries, not a *real* election with Donald Christ on the ballot.
I don't know what Simon thinks about this theory. If he thinks I'm wrong, obviously he knows a *lot* more than an amateur like me. And if he *does* doubt what I'm saying, he's going to want to "see the receipts." ;) So here they are (the second one is the meatiest):
In any case; my main takeaway from all this is one I *know* Simon *agrees* with: given where the race stands now, if the current polls are as wrong as they were in 2022, we have the opportunity of a lifetime over the next 60-something days to shock the GOP by delivering on Simon's Drive for 55, and give the Dems what they need to end this long national nightmare :) (including putting the Supreme Court back in the box the Founders gave it to us in)
Lots of good thinking there. Thank you. I’m not convinced suppression was that big of a factor in 2016, but your thoughts are very well articulated and worth considering.
Thanks JCOK :) We may just have differences in what we call suppression--my definition is pretty broad eg it includes disinformation of all kinds by all actors. After the election, Pew did a poll of non-voters, in which they found this group favored Hillary by 7 points, ie 3x her margin of victory. Less publicized by the MSM was who those voters were: disproportionately young, Black, brown, and/or poor, ie the exact same groups the Republicans have targeted for suppression for decades, albeit mainly, but not exclusively, via what I call egallitarian measures along the lines of Anatole France's famous aphorism “praise the laws of France that prohibit both the poor and rich from sleeping under bridges.”
What went on that year in my home state of Wisconsin was a classic example.The Repos passed a strict voter ID law (strictest in the nation at the time), which went into effect for the first time in 2016. If people didn't have a driver's license, they could get a state ID “for free,” but they were only available at *DMVs,* which aren't typically located for the convenience of people who don't have cars, and outside big cities, don't keep regular hours--two thirds of the ones in WI are open 2 days/week or less, more than 10% are open only one day/month, and nearly 10% are only open one day/quarter.
As for those open 2 days/week or more, there's an average of one every 736 square miles. And then, just to push the thumb all the way down in the scale, the Republican governor didn't provide any instructions or materials to the DMVs on how to generate these state IDs until he was forced to by court order late in the cycle. In Wisconsin, like most places, the biggest barrier to voting is registration; for this reason it was one of the first to allow same day registration, but of course that's irrelevant if you don't have a driver's license or state ID. Pretty much every Republican did, many Dems did not, and Hillary lost the state by 20,000+ votes out of nearly 4.8 million cast. But according to the MSM, she lost because she didn't visit the state to rally people who didn't have IDs and couldn't vote.
Then you add the Russians into this, who hacked and stole the Dems’ strategy documents and voter dbs, shared and discussed them with the GOP (which used these docs themselves)--all this is in Mueller's indictments (if not his report) and/or the bipartisan Senate Intelligence reports--so Putin's boys knew exactly who to target and where. Six Russian Facebook accounts generated 340M+ shares alone, the Russians created a Facebook group targeted at Black Americans called Blacktivist that got more traction than BLM--I could go on, but I don't want to waste any more time for either if us that can go towards revenge instead. ;)
I wonder if poll makers understand/take into account voters’ real world lives… after waiting in line & finally getting one pooling booth they have used up the time an employer or friend /neighbor has given them to go vote… there’s no margin of error if your bread winner in your family… hanging out to read & ckmark a poll… not vital …
What Simon lays out again today is very important and like him, I would ask everyone to keep it in mind over the next 9 weeks until Election Day. The world did change after June 2022. Democratic candidates have over performed polling since then. Trump UNDERPERFORMED in the primaries this year anywhere from 3% to 30%, depending on the state.
There is a swath of Haley voters (Haley voters were 18%-20% in the primaries this year) that won’t vote for him. Further, according to the NYT, Liz Cheney will soon come out with a likely endorsement for VP Harris. This will further push a swath of voters away from Trump. And there may be others.
Finally, in many swing states, the senate or gov candidates are polling higher than the VP right now. Those numbers will converge and I think they converge at the higher end and not the lower end. We have the money, the enthusiasm and the volunteers to win this election. We just have to keep doing the work to make it happen.
I did see that and I would welcome that. As Geoff Duncan said at the convention, voting for Kamala Harris doesn’t make you a Democrat, it makes you a patriot.
I am surprised that this swath of Nikki Haley voters is not showing up more in the polls. Seems to me that Kamala Harris’ numbers ought to be even higher. That said, I do think the polls are underestimating her strength – and they are certainly underestimating the force of our ground game and GOTV efforts!
I am surprised too. But I agree that polling is not very accurate and there are the factors you mentioned that are also not being considered. It’s totally anecdotal I know, but my wife and I are moving to NC for the last 6 weeks of the election to volunteer for the campaign. We have never done anything like this before. And we are certainly not alone. That’s not in the polls.
I’m so happy to read Simon’s critique of the whole “Trump always outperforms polling” business. I see this idea everywhere on social media. This allowed me to take a deep breath.
What an awesome post, thank you thank you thank you, Simon, for all you do! Just donated! And I am on about 10 pro-Harris (and large) FB groups -- I posted on all of those for people to donate today, too. Let's spread the word, Team Hopium! I love the stories of these massive fundraising #s!!! :)
Hope Tom B’s TargSmart can help with the ReRegistering process in those Republican states where folks have been deleted from the voting rolls for sometimes spurious reasons😳. How can we get those folks re-registered in time for the election ??!! HELP! It is a large number of voters ‼️
There are voter protection groups calling people who are being removed from the voter rolls to get them to re-enroll. Please check out VoPro Pros (https://www.vopropros.com/).
Also if you have a social media following, post a reminder about checking your voter registration to make sure it is active AND that you are registered at the correct address! I recommend www.Vote411.org, www.vote.org, and https://iwillvote.com/. For all three of these sites you choose your state and you will automatically be diected to the proper organization to check your registration.
If you aren't on social media, create an email distribution list and send out emails to the list at the appropriate times to remind people to check their registration, the deadline in your state for registering, when early voting starts (if applicable) and how to find the early voting sites (which is normally different than their election day polling place).
Simon…isn’t the Trump 2020 over performance already baked into this years polling…isn’t their some adjustment for that already in the numbers we are seeing?
The big reasons, I feel, we can win are 1) The Dobbs decision, 2) The intellectually incompetent and morally deprived candidates on the other side who support the dystopian Project 2025 . I don't believe the polls. What I believe are the number of new voters who have recently registered to vote around the country. Also, Trisha Calverese is running in CO-4 against Boebert. Marc Elias wrote about her in his daily email yesterday. Gloria Johnson of the "The Tennessee Three" is running against mage, election denier, mage Marsha Blackburn. I support both of them. I'm looking forward to both events this week. Grateful.
The Senate race between Dan Osborn and Deb Fischer has received surprisingly little attention. Osborn is running as an Independent, and polls have him within 2–4 points of unseating Fischer!Today, Prof. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium has posted a very interesting analysis. Well worth reading!
That was a great read, thanks! If Wang answers your question about with which party Osborn would caucus, pls let us know. Even tho he walked away fm the Dems, he might still caucus with us.
There is only one poll that counts and it is taken on Nov 5. Keep your pedal to the metal and let's drive thru up the numbers. Hillary was projected to win a week before the election so some people didn't feel the need to vote. We have to drown MAGA in a blue tsuami. We need a massive popular vote in ALL OF THE SWING STATES to overcome the Electoral Count bias. We can do this thanks to Simon's encouragement.
1. When TFG says his stupid "I don't know anything about" Arlington, or Project 2025, or whatever else, why doesn't anyone ever comment, "He's running for President--it's his JOB to know about things"???
2. Does anyone know how to reach George Conway? He needs to get people to start calling those stupid accordion hands that Trump makes (and that Obama so artfully re-enacted at the Convention) Trump's (pardon me) "penis hands." "There he goes, doing his "penis hands again!" Give the gesture a good raunchy name, so that Trump becomes embarrassed to use it. If he can't do his usual schtick with his hands, he'll be speechless.
What are we all doing this Labor of Love for your country weekend? I'm running canvasses and hosting a voter registration at a local event. Gotta make sure NC crosses over to Blue from purple. Let's go!!
Russell we have become bluer and we are going to run up the margins statewude and flex on those who think we're in the bag for all the MAGA losers. Whatever anyone in the hopium world can do to help is massively important and we thank you!
I’m “ All In For NC”. ! I just sent off another donation to your 4 million doors canvassing project today with fingers crossed!! 🤞🏻
I also read about a youth group targeting there. You must be overrun with activists but in a good way!!! Prayers to NC!!!!!!🇺🇸
I'm in NC and there are lots of registered Democrats who didn't vote in 2020 plus there are lots of residents who are eligible to vote that hadn't registered. In addition, there are lots of newcomers to NC moving in from other states - predominently younger people, many with college degrees. So yes the changing demographics favor Democrats - we just need to improve the turnout.
I live in the county with the highest population of Democrats in the state, so we are ground zero for Democratic GOTV efforts - this was the plan even before Biden passed the baton to Kamala Harris. Now with the change at the head of the ticket, the GOTV job has gotten much easier, but still a fight. In addition, the GOP chose a deeply flawed candidate to run for Governor and his Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, has a lead well outside of the margin of error.
Fun Fact: NC has 100 counties and if you ranked them in order based on number of Democrats (high to low), my county (Mecklenburg) has more Democrats than the SUM of the 55 counties with the fewest Democrats.
Wow, good for you and god speed getting out that crucial vote! Postcarding for your state!
You are FANTASTIC, thank you!!!
I'm down in Mecklenburg County and my local Democratic group hosted an event last night. The purpose was to assemble yard signs and write postcards (for those of us who weren't interested in working on the signs). We had an overwhelming response. All the signs got assembled within the first half hour or so, so everybody decending on the room where we writing postcards. I had volunteered to coordinate the postcarders and I was figuring on maybe a dozen people. I think we had about 4 dozen. The event was scheduled to last 2 hours, but we were finished with everything in an hour and a half. (The woman who planned the event underestimated the number of postcards to bring because "Hey, who's going to show up on Friday night before Labor Day?"
I have also signed up for a phone bank tomorrow evening. Not sure how many people I will reach, but I think this one allows us to leave messages, which I like.
There is another event next Saturday - a candidate forum, followed by a bunch of canvasses for 2 battleground legislative districts - HD-105 (currently held by the traitor Tricia Cotham who fipped (D) to (R)) and SD-42 (an open seat because Wesley Harris is running for State Treasurer). They are both critical races (as you likely know) toward denying the GOP a supermajority! The alternate activity to canvassing will be postcarding again and I volunteered to help coordinate that part. Am I a glutton for punishment or what? (Just kidding!)
Amazing! I really do hope North Carolina gets rid of Tricia Cotham. She is a liar and impostor, a disgrace and a danger to democracy.
Outstanding! Thanks for your hard work 💙💙💙
Very good analysis as always, Simon. One quick question: is there any national phonebanking going on for the Blue Dot in Nebraska, especially as relates to Harris-Walz?
Here's a link to the many many phonebanking sessions for Harris/Walz: https://events.democrats.org/event/664004/?utm_source=hfp_w_go_20240823&utm_campaign=hfp_w_go_mb_do_vol_vrec_20240823&utm_medium=go_kh_20240823&fbclid=IwY2xjawE1sJVleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHXZx7VK2hgNMDfFBkQN_90m3X-ccbyy6MN27CPwkHkoGpEBvNVxKg5JN0w_aem_z3lh808zCvWjB8H_ZNvV6A
Thanks. Appreciate it.
Simon, any insight into the blue downturns/rec upturns in Arizona and Michigan?
there are no downturns or upturns. Polls have margins of error and bounce around. Everything is remarkably consistent right now - we have a 3-4 pt lead nationally, and we are tied or ahead in all 7 battleground states.
Hi Simon, sorry in advance for being verbose but if you have a chance, I would love to hear your thoughts on two Senate races. One - Montana with Jon Tester and two - Alsobrooks vs Hogan in MD. Tester has apparently been polling outside the margin of error - behind - against Sheehey. I'm not one to rely on polls too much as I think the polling industry as a whole is broken and fragmented although the particular polling data you refer us to is rather based in more realism than many many others. For example, Nate Silver is NOT a pollster any of us should look to for reliable data or guidance. Anyway, I digress.
I think it's fair to say the Senate can be won or lost on either Montana and/or Maryland this election. Montana is expected to be an extremely tight race. Do you have any optimistic insight/data that keeps a Tester win within reach? Also, I remember seeing it written on here the other day DC isn't as invested in the MD Senate race. If that is true, I personally find that to be a real potential error as a Marylander myself. Though I am a staunch Democrat, I am not oblivious to the fact Hogan is a uniquely popular candidate in a deep blue state like mine.
Hogan is more popular than Alsobrooks however, Alsobrooks as we know, has a significant edge in several ways. She ran on women's healthcare which clinched her impressive primary win. She is heavily backed by both poplar Governor Moore and Harris herself (as I was unaware Harris was a mentor to her). As I've said before, it is a different scenario for a blue state to elect a Moderate Republican Governor than it is for a blue state to send to the Senate, a Republican period for national representation. That said, Hogan is one of the few candidates who CAN put the MD Senate race 'in play' and that should NOT be taken for granted. In our most consequential election yet, none of us can afford any sense of complacency.
Both Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are in actual jeopardy of losing their Senate seats which is encouraging (though I'm not yet confident to say Harris can flip either FL or TX just yet although FL is more so, in play than it has been before). However, losing Montana and/or MD only works to our benefit in the end if either Cruz and/or Scott lose their seats as well. The same goes for potentially flipping the seats of Josh Hawley or Marsha Blackburn. However, Tester and Alsobrooks SHOULD win their senate races and though I have often prided myself on being a relentless optimist (as you've surely seen from a number of my past comments here on the community page) -- I cannot lie and say I don't have a natural fear towards the possibility of losing either of those seats.
Yes, the goal above anything else is to ensure 45 never sees the inside of the WH ever again. Harris winning is the most important factor period, I get that. However, if we don't have the senate but manage to flip the House, it is naïve for us to assume we can just pick it up in 2026. No Senate -- no codification of Abortion rights, same sex marriage, and voting rights. It's that black and white. Any positive and/or constructive feedback you can provide on these matters, I would greatly appreciate. Again, I am immensely proud to be in this fight with the Hopium Family. I am currently awaiting further communication from leaders amongst the campaign here on the home front in MD. I will say, it has been humbling for me to help get fellow Marylanders excited about Harris. I don't often brag but it is nice to hear from family and friends 'I was right all along' when I called it five years ago, Harris becoming the first Female President and was the most underestimated political figure of our time -- next to President Biden himself. Onward to win and win big God willing.
Great thoughts, Simon. Question for this group: in what seems like an eternity ago, I signed up to write *many* postcards, not specifying a state. I received 500 postcards for Ohio. I’m valiantly making my way through the list, but from what I am seeing, Ohio is not in play - so am I wasting my time and money doing this? It’s just a generic message about getting out to vote. Thanks, Everyone!
I can't speak for anyone else, but Brown leads and hopefully Harris can draft on his wind. I got a message from Blue Ohio this morning describing how down races are outperforming. https://blueohio.org/
You’re definitely not wasting your time. I found out recently that Ohio has a gerrymandering amendment on the ballot. I was born and raised in Cincinnati, Ohio. My relatives even questioned the effectiveness of voting. None were aware of the gerrymandering amendment. Ohio voted against the super majority for amendments just recently. That’s how they overturned their strict abortion ban. They also have Sherrod Brown, D-Incumbent for Senate, on the ballot. He needs every vote to retain his seat. Look at “Gym” Jordan’s district. It is a joke. It snakes around Cincinnati on PURPOSE. I’ve convinced all of my relatives to vote because of these issues. I’ve got 100 postcards for Ohio going out this weekend also. Down ballot issues are IMPORTANT. thanks so much Courtney. I’ve also done 600 postcards but we need to leave it all on the field. When my daughters and granddaughters ask me what I did in 2024, I will look them in the eye, hug them and say everything that I could possibly contribute. Hopium on my friend!
Exactly!!
Grassroots activism is the Democratic super power!!!💙🌊💙🌊💙
Agree-Ohio needs all the help it can get. Mitch McConnell is flooding it with dark money and a millionaire candidate to try to unseat Sherrod Browns seat. He’s leading but it’s a truly appalling amount of $$$ being thrown at this race. David Pepper on Substack has a lot to share about Ohio Courtney.
The local down ballot races in Ohio are important too! Please keep doing your list of voters since they were probably not given to anyone else. Every GOTV effort - everywhere- is important! Ohio will eventually swing back to a more competitive State in the future, so you are helping lay the groungwork.
Courtney, the very respected Timothy Snyder believes Ohio is indeed in play this year! Here is today’s newsletter/column from him.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/arizona-labor?publication_id=310897
His main focus here is Arizona, but here is what Snyder writes about Ohio:
"The way American elections are structured, we count state by state. And so the most important states become those that either candidate can plausibly win. Historically the bellwether was Ohio. I think Ohio will be in play this year, and will spend some of my own October there (more on that soon). I think Florida and Texas could also go either way."
Thank you very much. I will, however, respectfully disagree with Snyder - no way in hell (make that *heaven*) are Florida and Texas in play. My daughter works on the Colin Allred campaign and they have almost given up over there on beating Ted Cruz. That’s just a small anecdote about the state of play in Texas. Hope I am terribly wrong!
You may be right about Allred, but I think there is a very strong chance that Debbie Mucarsel-Powell beats Rick Scott. In fact I believe it is likely.
Even if Kamala Harris does not win Florida (it’s admittedly a long shot), I do think Democrats will make great progress in down-ticket races, both in Florida’s legislative races and in the state’s Congressional delegation.
Courtney, Thank you for writing so many post cards of Ohio. I am writing Vote Forward letters for NC and NY. It all adds up. I grew up in Florida and have family that lives there. I'm going to agree with Snyder here and say that I see Florida in play. When they got more than 1 million signatures (out of 13 million voters) to put abortion on the ballot, it all changed. Also, last time (2022) there were more than 30 state house races that were uncontested. Republicans ran unopposed. This time (2024), there are zero unopposed seats. Every precinct in Florida will have a local ground game. Debbie can win this.
From what I've heard, current and past elected officials in FL and TX (including Beto O'Rourke) say, piece by piece, they are turning districts blue and not giving up their states. So maybe this election or not, we won't give up, we just keep plugging along!!!
Simon, also worth noting that nearly all pollsters altered polling methods after 2020 to correct for the Trump over-performance in 2016 and 2020. The idea here was to capture the “hidden Trump voters” in the data and to reduce weighting for certain Dem constituencies.
There is a great article out there (sorry, not in position to link) in which Sienna, the NYT pollster, explains how it now (starting after 2020) includes data from folks who don’t complete the entire poll survey and how it now using different weighting in its polls. Apparently, Sienna discovered that the vast majority of incomplete surveys came from Trump voters who actually did vote and excluding the top-line responses from those incomplete surveys caused significant poll error. Same on Emerson. It revamped its polls significantly after 2020 and there is an article out there in which the head data person for Emerson explains such. These are just examples. Polling methods were altered across the board after 2020.
This ties into your comment about Dem over-performing in 2022 and forward. Good chance the polling outfits overcorrected, especially given the Dobbs effect.
Here is a good overview of polling method changes, with several pollsters chiming in. This is not the article I was referring to above, but it still has a quote from Sienna on issues involving incomplete surveys.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/05/04/why-election-polls-were-wrong-in-2016-and-2020-and-whats-changing.html
Even after 2022, 2023, and 2024 to date, they're adding *even more* red M&Ms this time? Wow, this could get "really" ugly for them :D
The myth of the "hidden Trump voters" in 2016 was just that – a MYTH. It’s stunning that it persists to this day.
No! The 2106 polls were quite accurate. HOWEVER, a meta-analyses of the very latest polls, right before Election Day, show that FBI Director Comey’s announcement about Hillary’s emails actually shifted the race by approx. 5 percentage point. That was enough to hand Trump very narrow wins in several Rustbelt States, and thus victory in the Electoral College – even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 2.9 million votes.
TJ Kimel, that’s it. Thank you!
Sorry, I don’t have a link at hand, but I have seen this conclusion from several sources, including the Princeton Election Consortium. Simon Rosenberg may be able to confirm my point: Comey’s announcement decisively shifted the presidential race!
Comey. Comer is a different guy.
For those of a certain age, Comey = Wally Cleaver. Comer = Eddie Haskell. For those too young to remember, please ignore.
Typo corrected. Thanks!
Trump did overperform again in 2020, and pollsters, who had already made what they thought were significant adjustments to account for the mythological "shy Trump voter" made even more adjustments after 2020 to account even more heavily for the allegedly missing Trump voters. They should have realized, when their fixes after 2016 didn't work, that their theory was wrong. Instead, just like Trump, they doubled down, and as a result they underestimated Democratic support in nearly every marquee 2022 race, in a few cases by double digits(!) and have been underestimating Democratic support in every special election and every referendum since while overestimating Trump's support in every primary. None of that has mattered to them because they saw 2022 as just a continuation of the pattern (polling bias in favor of Dems disappears when Trump is not on the ballot) and special elections, referenda, and primaries are not real elections. So they stand a good chance, with our help, of getting embarrassed again on 11/5 :)
Near as I can reckon, pollsters adjusted for Trump but have NOT adjusted their polling models to account for consistent Democratic over-performance and special election victories post-Dobbs.
Another example of outrageous modelling: Nate Silver "adjusts" his results by 2 percentage points to take into account an expected "Harris convention bump", which he expects to subside. In other words, his model "adjustment" is designed to make Kamala Harris’ convention bump invisible!
If you want simple, you might want to take a look at the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC). Their model is based on pure polling averages. Moreover, their code is open so anybody can replicate and critique it. Not so with Nate or 538 – both add a proprietary "secret sauce".
https://election.princeton.edu/
Here is PEC’s analysis of the Nebraska Senate race – with an explanation of why this is the most effective Senate race in which to invest resources (our time and money).
https://election.princeton.edu/articles/nebraska-florida/
I didn't know Nate was doing that—sheesh. This is why RCP endures despite huge misses--a lot of people just want their polling to be “objective,” meaning just add up the polls and average. In an era where trust in experts is at an all-time low, anything else looks like “gaming” or “putting a thumb on the scale” to folks, which is a problem because as the Ukrainians showed in 2004, polls can be we, the people's protection against stolen elections. Weighting polls based on objective measures of past performance/quality can be justified, provided they're transparent. Slicing two points off someone's average because you “know" it's just convention bounce can"t.
As for adjustments to account for three years of overperformances, as far as I can see you're right, AS--they haven't made any. At all. Even though the explanations for our overperformances really reinforce each other. Was it Dobbs? Was it Jim Crow 2.0? Both turbocharged our ground game, which is key to overcoming suppression, which, in turn, blew up their models.
The Atlantic actually says that in the case of Siena, at least, those incompletes account for less than half the error, and I"m skeptical that (a) they really went through every poll they did (cognitive bias alert); (b) found that only Trump supporters hung up on them (I think anyone who has done phone banking with good lists would find that not credible) (c) accounted for all the potential issues that could affect accuracy, instead of only the most memorable (ie people yelling F you at you and hanging up) eg I think it's been pretty well established that young voters are significantly less likely to answer phones at all, which could easily create a bias in the other direction if you're still using outmoded models of the proportion of young voters who vote.
I'm even more skeptical that every pollster who missed in 2020 had the same problem to the same degree as Siena did. What these latest claims sound like to *me* is an industry still clinging to a hypothesis for which, as Pew has said, there's no evidence, and in 2022, 2023, and 2024 so far, a *lot* of evidence *against.* I understand *why* they're doing it--it's a way to view the problem as something they can control and solve (as opposed to what I consider to the real problem, which only we, the people, and our leaders can address), but that doesn't make it right.
In my opinion, the real cause of the problem, an explanation that fits not only 2016 and 2020, but the polling biases (or lack thereof) in every presidential and congressional election in this century so far, is the dynamics of modern voter suppression. Ie unlike Jim Crow, modern suppression is an arms race between our voters and the Republican Party. In my view, we lost that race in 2016 and 2020 due to extraordinary suppression conditions that we couldn't have predicted or predicted the impact of, not because a lot of zombies unexpectedly appeared out of the swamps.
2016 was the first presidential after the Supremes gutted the VRA in 2013, and was the first "sweeping and systematic' effort by a foreign government to interfere with an American election, interference in favor of the party that overperformed its polling (which, pollsters seem to have forgotten, can just as easily be the result of *under*performance by the opposing party).
2020 was the first election after the end of the consent decree, which Republicans were *very* excited about because it meant they could engage in a lot of unethical and illegal behavior they had to outsource to the Russians in 2016, plus engage a lot of other behavior neither the Russians nor Repos could deploy before. And then there was the pandemic, which either directly or indirectly disproportionately impacted our constituencies (people living in densely populated areas, young voters, voters of color, poor voters) and our campaign (because *we* actually *cared* whether we were spreading a deadly disease eg by knocking on doors or holding rallies in close quarters), all of which the GOP weaponized to the hilt.
The shy Trump voter never made any sense on multiple levels--they're not shy, there's no logical reason why they should only be shy in swing states (where the biggest polling disconnects occurred), etc. etc. etc. Voter suppression does.
As for the other elections in the period, there were relatively few new suppression measures enacted between 2016 and 2018, and the Russians pulled back from their interference, both of which allowed us to catch up in the race, as best evidenced by the extraordinary reality that more than half the Dems' victory margin *in a midterm* was provided by voters *who didn't vote in 2016.*
We won the arms race in 2022 as well because the GOP was so aggressive so soon so publicly after the 2020 election in passing reams of new suppression measures that the Dems were compelled to build what, by 2022, Simon was already calling the greatest ground operation ever created, no doubt benefiting from the experience of leaders like Stacy Abrams, Ben Wikler, and Beto O'Rourke who had been operating in some of the most heavily suppressed states in the country.
2022 should have told pollsters their explanations for 2016 and 2020 were wrong, that the game had changed, but it didn't, as evidenced by the fact that they continued to underestimate Democratic support in every special election in 2023 and 2024, while overestimating Trump's support in every Republican primary. And now, because of the articles we've all been citing, we *know* for a fact that at least some of them are *still* doubling down *again* on their BS theory.
Why did they not "get the memo?" I think they saw 2022 as just a continuation of the pattern, and they've dismissed everything since as just special elections, single‐issue referenda, and primaries, not a *real* election with Donald Christ on the ballot.
I don't know what Simon thinks about this theory. If he thinks I'm wrong, obviously he knows a *lot* more than an amateur like me. And if he *does* doubt what I'm saying, he's going to want to "see the receipts." ;) So here they are (the second one is the meatiest):
https://bit.ly/poll_vote1
https://bit.ly/poll_vote2
https://bit.ly/djt_eff
In any case; my main takeaway from all this is one I *know* Simon *agrees* with: given where the race stands now, if the current polls are as wrong as they were in 2022, we have the opportunity of a lifetime over the next 60-something days to shock the GOP by delivering on Simon's Drive for 55, and give the Dems what they need to end this long national nightmare :) (including putting the Supreme Court back in the box the Founders gave it to us in)
Lots of good thinking there. Thank you. I’m not convinced suppression was that big of a factor in 2016, but your thoughts are very well articulated and worth considering.
Thanks JCOK :) We may just have differences in what we call suppression--my definition is pretty broad eg it includes disinformation of all kinds by all actors. After the election, Pew did a poll of non-voters, in which they found this group favored Hillary by 7 points, ie 3x her margin of victory. Less publicized by the MSM was who those voters were: disproportionately young, Black, brown, and/or poor, ie the exact same groups the Republicans have targeted for suppression for decades, albeit mainly, but not exclusively, via what I call egallitarian measures along the lines of Anatole France's famous aphorism “praise the laws of France that prohibit both the poor and rich from sleeping under bridges.”
What went on that year in my home state of Wisconsin was a classic example.The Repos passed a strict voter ID law (strictest in the nation at the time), which went into effect for the first time in 2016. If people didn't have a driver's license, they could get a state ID “for free,” but they were only available at *DMVs,* which aren't typically located for the convenience of people who don't have cars, and outside big cities, don't keep regular hours--two thirds of the ones in WI are open 2 days/week or less, more than 10% are open only one day/month, and nearly 10% are only open one day/quarter.
As for those open 2 days/week or more, there's an average of one every 736 square miles. And then, just to push the thumb all the way down in the scale, the Republican governor didn't provide any instructions or materials to the DMVs on how to generate these state IDs until he was forced to by court order late in the cycle. In Wisconsin, like most places, the biggest barrier to voting is registration; for this reason it was one of the first to allow same day registration, but of course that's irrelevant if you don't have a driver's license or state ID. Pretty much every Republican did, many Dems did not, and Hillary lost the state by 20,000+ votes out of nearly 4.8 million cast. But according to the MSM, she lost because she didn't visit the state to rally people who didn't have IDs and couldn't vote.
Then you add the Russians into this, who hacked and stole the Dems’ strategy documents and voter dbs, shared and discussed them with the GOP (which used these docs themselves)--all this is in Mueller's indictments (if not his report) and/or the bipartisan Senate Intelligence reports--so Putin's boys knew exactly who to target and where. Six Russian Facebook accounts generated 340M+ shares alone, the Russians created a Facebook group targeted at Black Americans called Blacktivist that got more traction than BLM--I could go on, but I don't want to waste any more time for either if us that can go towards revenge instead. ;)
I wonder if poll makers understand/take into account voters’ real world lives… after waiting in line & finally getting one pooling booth they have used up the time an employer or friend /neighbor has given them to go vote… there’s no margin of error if your bread winner in your family… hanging out to read & ckmark a poll… not vital …
I was a lone breadwinner long time ago.. ..in rural county
Please continue to partner with FT 6. Blue waves can make a blue tsunami.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Joining them soon to textbank today, as I do every day! Highly recommend everyone get involved with this!
What Simon lays out again today is very important and like him, I would ask everyone to keep it in mind over the next 9 weeks until Election Day. The world did change after June 2022. Democratic candidates have over performed polling since then. Trump UNDERPERFORMED in the primaries this year anywhere from 3% to 30%, depending on the state.
There is a swath of Haley voters (Haley voters were 18%-20% in the primaries this year) that won’t vote for him. Further, according to the NYT, Liz Cheney will soon come out with a likely endorsement for VP Harris. This will further push a swath of voters away from Trump. And there may be others.
Finally, in many swing states, the senate or gov candidates are polling higher than the VP right now. Those numbers will converge and I think they converge at the higher end and not the lower end. We have the money, the enthusiasm and the volunteers to win this election. We just have to keep doing the work to make it happen.
I did see that and I would welcome that. As Geoff Duncan said at the convention, voting for Kamala Harris doesn’t make you a Democrat, it makes you a patriot.
Unfortunately, I will believe it when I see it. We can hope though, right?
Yes, I read the Liz Cheney article as well, this would obviously be fantastic!
I am surprised that this swath of Nikki Haley voters is not showing up more in the polls. Seems to me that Kamala Harris’ numbers ought to be even higher. That said, I do think the polls are underestimating her strength – and they are certainly underestimating the force of our ground game and GOTV efforts!
I am surprised too. But I agree that polling is not very accurate and there are the factors you mentioned that are also not being considered. It’s totally anecdotal I know, but my wife and I are moving to NC for the last 6 weeks of the election to volunteer for the campaign. We have never done anything like this before. And we are certainly not alone. That’s not in the polls.
That’s amazing! I want to thank you and your wife in advance for your great service!
Ditto!! Thanks Tim and Mrs. Tim. You are heroes.
We are all doing our part
Thanks, but we are all doing our parts here. Leaving it all on the field. It’s what Hopium Chronicles has taught me!
Appreciate your commitment to pulling NC into ‘our world’
I’m so happy to read Simon’s critique of the whole “Trump always outperforms polling” business. I see this idea everywhere on social media. This allowed me to take a deep breath.
What does “outperform polling” mean?
What an awesome post, thank you thank you thank you, Simon, for all you do! Just donated! And I am on about 10 pro-Harris (and large) FB groups -- I posted on all of those for people to donate today, too. Let's spread the word, Team Hopium! I love the stories of these massive fundraising #s!!! :)
1. The new electronic voice is terrific by comparison!
2. Watching the House candidate interviews helps remember who's who.
3. Thanks for everything as always, Simon. Good for you for taking a day off.
Hope Tom B’s TargSmart can help with the ReRegistering process in those Republican states where folks have been deleted from the voting rolls for sometimes spurious reasons😳. How can we get those folks re-registered in time for the election ??!! HELP! It is a large number of voters ‼️
There are voter protection groups calling people who are being removed from the voter rolls to get them to re-enroll. Please check out VoPro Pros (https://www.vopropros.com/).
Also if you have a social media following, post a reminder about checking your voter registration to make sure it is active AND that you are registered at the correct address! I recommend www.Vote411.org, www.vote.org, and https://iwillvote.com/. For all three of these sites you choose your state and you will automatically be diected to the proper organization to check your registration.
If you aren't on social media, create an email distribution list and send out emails to the list at the appropriate times to remind people to check their registration, the deadline in your state for registering, when early voting starts (if applicable) and how to find the early voting sites (which is normally different than their election day polling place).
Simon…isn’t the Trump 2020 over performance already baked into this years polling…isn’t their some adjustment for that already in the numbers we are seeing?
The big reasons, I feel, we can win are 1) The Dobbs decision, 2) The intellectually incompetent and morally deprived candidates on the other side who support the dystopian Project 2025 . I don't believe the polls. What I believe are the number of new voters who have recently registered to vote around the country. Also, Trisha Calverese is running in CO-4 against Boebert. Marc Elias wrote about her in his daily email yesterday. Gloria Johnson of the "The Tennessee Three" is running against mage, election denier, mage Marsha Blackburn. I support both of them. I'm looking forward to both events this week. Grateful.
NEBRASKA SENATE RACE
The Senate race between Dan Osborn and Deb Fischer has received surprisingly little attention. Osborn is running as an Independent, and polls have him within 2–4 points of unseating Fischer!Today, Prof. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium has posted a very interesting analysis. Well worth reading!
https://election.princeton.edu/articles/nebraska-florida/
That was a great read, thanks! If Wang answers your question about with which party Osborn would caucus, pls let us know. Even tho he walked away fm the Dems, he might still caucus with us.
Will do. :)
Perhaps someone else on Hopium, possibly from Nebraska, knows the answer?
There is only one poll that counts and it is taken on Nov 5. Keep your pedal to the metal and let's drive thru up the numbers. Hillary was projected to win a week before the election so some people didn't feel the need to vote. We have to drown MAGA in a blue tsuami. We need a massive popular vote in ALL OF THE SWING STATES to overcome the Electoral Count bias. We can do this thanks to Simon's encouragement.
thank you for spelling pedal and metal right 🤣🤣🤣
(says the grammar nerd in me)
Two things:
1. When TFG says his stupid "I don't know anything about" Arlington, or Project 2025, or whatever else, why doesn't anyone ever comment, "He's running for President--it's his JOB to know about things"???
2. Does anyone know how to reach George Conway? He needs to get people to start calling those stupid accordion hands that Trump makes (and that Obama so artfully re-enacted at the Convention) Trump's (pardon me) "penis hands." "There he goes, doing his "penis hands again!" Give the gesture a good raunchy name, so that Trump becomes embarrassed to use it. If he can't do his usual schtick with his hands, he'll be speechless.
(Yikes! Cranky today! 😱🤣)