I think NC is the state we flip this year, but FL is going to be primed in the coming elections. I bet Biden gets within 2-4 points in November, because DeSantis doesn’t have the juice he did a year ago and nobody really likes Rick Scott.
My bet is we flip NC in 2024, FL in 2028, then TX in 2032…🤞
If Democratic voter turnout in November is at Scandinavian levels (80–85 percent) while Republican Floridians’ turnout remains at the state’s 2020 levels (67 %), then Florida will see a Blue Tsunami already this year!
Oh, and as Hopium and Field Team 6 members have underscored, we need to re-register the majority of one million voters DeSantis & Co purged from the state’s voter rolls.
The big wildcard with Florida is the abortion ballot measure. The advocates in the state are pushing for the measure to remain unlinked to voting Dem since they’ll need some Republicans to vote for it to overcome the 60% barrier, but we don’t know how much it will affect how people vote the rest of the ballot. After all, abortion rights ballots passed in red states that aren’t in any danger of turning blue, so we really don’t know how things will change when abortion is on a presidential election ballot.
Some of those abortion ballot initiatives in red states were not tied to a general election and certainly not a presidential one. The GOP legislatures in both KS and OH tried to pull a fast one on voters by scheduling special elections in the summer. The second OH one for the actual constitutional amendment was in Nov. at the normal time, but in an off year.
I honestly don't know if we can predict the impact on voter behavior this year in FL (now with a 6-week abortion ban) or AZ (trying to enforce a civil-war era ban before some of the GOP came to their senses). In addition, there are now more horror strories of women with pregnancy complications dying (or almost dying), the IVF ruling in AL and the threats to birth control by the Supreme Court's overreach.
In NC (where I am), we don't have voter-initiated ballot initiatives, but abortion is definitely on the ballot. The GOP candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson, is a misogynistic, homophobic, conspiracy-loving ultra-MAGAt who hasn't been shy about expressing his opinions on abortion and women's right to choose. It doesn't matter to him HOW the woman became pregnant or if her life is at risk - according to him the woman is ALWAYS responsible and should be forced to carry the fetus NO MATTER WHAT. And as far as I can see, he hasn't done any back-pedaling to appeal to more voters in the general election.
So the Democrats definitely have the receipts (https://www.realmarkrobinson.com/). His Democratic opponent Josh Stein couldn't be more different. I honestly believe that the contrast between Stein and Robinson may be even starker that that between Biden and Trump. Stein is our current AG and has a good record of accomplishments that he can run on - he has played a leading role in trying to address the fentanyl crisis and under his administration, the huge backlog in old, untested rape kits was eliminated.
I wanted to share an opportunity for reader engagement. VoteRiders (www.voteriders.org) has a virtual letter writing party today (June 13) at 7 pm ET. They will be writing letters to voters in GA and TX to make them aware of the Voter ID requirements in those states and to offer assistance. Sign up here: https://www.mobilize.us/voteriders/event/634660/
I have been writing similar VR letters to voters in NC and it is quick and easy. You print a state-specific letter template, add a brief handwritten message, handwrite envelopes to the letter recipients, then add a stamp and mail. Easy peasy.
An FAU poll also shows Debbie Mucarsel-Powell within 2 points (LV) of incumbent Senator Rick Scott. (RV is 4 points.) If confirmed by other polls, this is a huge swing! As recently as April, Scott was ahead by 17 points (LV).
📣 Heinous FL HB 433 affects SO many Floridians .Let’s help get them to the polls for a Biden/down-ballot win.
No water, no shade: How homebuilders, farming companies and construction firms got politicians to reject heat rules for outdoor workers in Florida
The final version of HB 433 did more than block local heat-safety rules, too.
📣The new law also stops cities and counties from passing local laws that would require businesses with lots of hourly and part-time employees — like fast-food restaurants and other chain retailers — to give workers their schedules two weeks in advance. It will also dissolve local “living wage” ordinances, which will allow government contractors doing business in many of Florida’s big cities to cut pay for tens of thousands of employees.
Sen. Ana Maria Rodriguez (R-Miami) — cast the pivotal vote in favor of HB 433 that enabled that bill to pass.
Let's keep the momentum going! I've been tuning in a lot lately to the Navigator polls. To see Joe ahead by 4 points is good news. As Simon said, the more actual voters start tuning into the election, the uglier Trump looks. Anyone not tied to that monster's brain knows we are not going back to the insanity during his first term. Real patriots will not let our democracy die in the hands of that Convicted Felon and his cronies.
Good news out of the SC today but we women (and men) still have a huge fight ahead of us to gain all the loses and pain being aimed at women's bodies. Keep the faith & as Biden's mom told him share the faith.
IMO, Biden's lead will expand further if the Judge actually sentences Trump to prison. Hard to imagine that he wouldn't have to serve time given Michael Cohen did, and the fact that Trump never complied with the Judge's orders.
I went back on X the other day (first time in years) so I could tune in to GOP/MAGA talking points and push back with facts. It's like shooting fish in a barrel!
Simon - not sure if you have the time to read comments, but in the event you do I'd like to ask a question. I think it would benefit the Biden campaign to have the Jan 6 hearings aired multiple times during the last few months before the election on TV. Americans seem to have amnesia, so best to remind them. Also, is there a way to get email addresses of Independents and Republicans in swing states and send them links to specific hearings on YouTube? We need to remind Americans of the importance of maintaining our democracy.
To borrow a term from the excellent British series "Coupling" (a raunchier and better version of "Friends"), it would appear that Trump might be ... "unflushable".
Despite all of this great news, can you explain why there are folks supposedly in the "democratic" camp who consistently portray Biden as doing badly, saying if "the election were tomorrow he would lose" or "he has no campaign agenda, no message" or "he's losing Hispanic non college educated voters" blah blah blah. What is the point of that? Why are they so negative? Do they purposely want to drive down voter turnout? I just don't get it. Your numbers don't lie, and after the special election in Ohio... voters don't lie either. Thank you for all you do Simon in keeping us focused and hopeful. Got to drown out the noise from the begrudgers.
Because that’s what MSM is portraying and they highlight polls that aren’t good for Biden which are usually trash polls. Sinclair also is reporting Biden as old on their local stations all over, quoting the WSJ article which was a bit piece on Biden and full of lies. Lies keep getting repeated and MSM is glad to spread them. We must continue to amplify democratic messaging and Biden’s accomplishments. We need to stay positive and not star our sentences with negative qualifiers, like Biden isn’t perfect…but. No, we say, Biden has been a great president and America does better with Dems in charge…they will protect and restore our freedoms, pass policies that will help us provide for our families, etc.
That WSJ hit piece was disgraceful. It only quoted Keven McCarthy, who once opined that Biden was "sharp as a tack." You can tell that Murdoch owns the WSJ.
There's no explaining that attitude. Perhaps they are listening to the biased media or pessimistic pundits. There was a time early on when I felt that way myself, but the tide has turned and I'm guardedly optimistic and donating to Dems regularly. I suspect many of these folks will come around as November grows close and Trump continues his unhinged ways.
Ruy is now at the right-wing AEI. I would take him with a grain of salt. He seems like a disgruntled pundit - his whole “abundance agenda” stuff is just trying to put a liberal face on old fashioned union busting/bashing from his new bosses at the AEI. There’s a reason he’s no longer at The Center for American Progress.
He also relies very heavily on old polling data about the economy and has the post-2016 pundit fascination with the non-college educated demo. So, don’t be too disheartened by his takes. There’s some value to listening to it and incorporating some different perspectives. However, I think he’s just doing some axe grinding and overly negative - especially when it comes to President Biden.
Nate SIlver cites Biden’s "low approval rating" as a risk for Democrats.
But Nate says nary a word about Trump’s felony convictions, that he’s an adjudicated rapist, his fraud and tax evasion, his corruption in broad daylight, his packing the Supreme Court with reactionary justices who lied about respecting Roe v Wade as "established precedent" and instead took away reproductive rights for America’s women – something Trump has bragged about! – his extreme rhetoric and outright threats of violence, and Trump’s promise to turn America into an authoritarian, Fascist country.
Strangely, Nate Silver doesn’t seem to think any of these factors will impact the 2020 election at all!
I’m hopeful the DNC use the Trump gibberish and non-sensical Nevada “speech” where he talked about electrocution in the boat with sharks. Even the Trumpers looked shocked. His mental state is deteriorating in front of us. Dr. John Gartner has explained what we are seeing and why. I’d run that whackadoodle word salad on every channel followed by Vote Biden.
When is MSM going to push back against the bald faced lies of MAGA? I listened to Steve Inskeep’s interview with John Catsimatidis on NPR this morning. JC is a Trump buddy. Blamed Biden for Jay Powell and high interest rates. No reply that Trump appointed Powell or that the Fed is independent. JC then said the judge in the NY case convicted Trump. No pushback from Inskeep. Judges don’t do the convicting!!!!It’s jurors comprised of 12 ordinary citizens who served when called. It undermines our institutions when journalists don’t challenge such distortions. SMH.
My own personal latest from the "making June count" front: I just did the onboarding orientation for the Biden/DNC "2024 Victory Call Crew". Time to throw some phone-banking into the mix! No rest 'til November!
And don't forget this success story from last year either
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/23/business/i95-philadelphia-reopening-fast/index.html
In Florida, according to the FAU poll, Biden is within 4 points, up 4. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-news-florida-poll-1912057
I think NC is the state we flip this year, but FL is going to be primed in the coming elections. I bet Biden gets within 2-4 points in November, because DeSantis doesn’t have the juice he did a year ago and nobody really likes Rick Scott.
My bet is we flip NC in 2024, FL in 2028, then TX in 2032…🤞
If Democratic voter turnout in November is at Scandinavian levels (80–85 percent) while Republican Floridians’ turnout remains at the state’s 2020 levels (67 %), then Florida will see a Blue Tsunami already this year!
Oh, and as Hopium and Field Team 6 members have underscored, we need to re-register the majority of one million voters DeSantis & Co purged from the state’s voter rolls.
The big wildcard with Florida is the abortion ballot measure. The advocates in the state are pushing for the measure to remain unlinked to voting Dem since they’ll need some Republicans to vote for it to overcome the 60% barrier, but we don’t know how much it will affect how people vote the rest of the ballot. After all, abortion rights ballots passed in red states that aren’t in any danger of turning blue, so we really don’t know how things will change when abortion is on a presidential election ballot.
Some of those abortion ballot initiatives in red states were not tied to a general election and certainly not a presidential one. The GOP legislatures in both KS and OH tried to pull a fast one on voters by scheduling special elections in the summer. The second OH one for the actual constitutional amendment was in Nov. at the normal time, but in an off year.
I honestly don't know if we can predict the impact on voter behavior this year in FL (now with a 6-week abortion ban) or AZ (trying to enforce a civil-war era ban before some of the GOP came to their senses). In addition, there are now more horror strories of women with pregnancy complications dying (or almost dying), the IVF ruling in AL and the threats to birth control by the Supreme Court's overreach.
In NC (where I am), we don't have voter-initiated ballot initiatives, but abortion is definitely on the ballot. The GOP candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson, is a misogynistic, homophobic, conspiracy-loving ultra-MAGAt who hasn't been shy about expressing his opinions on abortion and women's right to choose. It doesn't matter to him HOW the woman became pregnant or if her life is at risk - according to him the woman is ALWAYS responsible and should be forced to carry the fetus NO MATTER WHAT. And as far as I can see, he hasn't done any back-pedaling to appeal to more voters in the general election.
So the Democrats definitely have the receipts (https://www.realmarkrobinson.com/). His Democratic opponent Josh Stein couldn't be more different. I honestly believe that the contrast between Stein and Robinson may be even starker that that between Biden and Trump. Stein is our current AG and has a good record of accomplishments that he can run on - he has played a leading role in trying to address the fentanyl crisis and under his administration, the huge backlog in old, untested rape kits was eliminated.
https://ncdoj.gov/attorney-general-josh-stein-continues-fighting-the-fentanyl-crisis/
https://ncdoj.gov/attorney-general-josh-stein-weve-ended-the-rape-kit-backlog-in-north-carolina/
I recently discovered Field Team 6, donated and sent their site to friends. Turnout is everything.
I love your bet! Still have work to do in NC this year! (my state)
Me too!!
💙
I like the way you think.
Speaking of TX ...
I wanted to share an opportunity for reader engagement. VoteRiders (www.voteriders.org) has a virtual letter writing party today (June 13) at 7 pm ET. They will be writing letters to voters in GA and TX to make them aware of the Voter ID requirements in those states and to offer assistance. Sign up here: https://www.mobilize.us/voteriders/event/634660/
I have been writing similar VR letters to voters in NC and it is quick and easy. You print a state-specific letter template, add a brief handwritten message, handwrite envelopes to the letter recipients, then add a stamp and mail. Easy peasy.
Me too!! (Just had to follow your lead! 😉)
💙
🙏🏻
An FAU poll also shows Debbie Mucarsel-Powell within 2 points (LV) of incumbent Senator Rick Scott. (RV is 4 points.) If confirmed by other polls, this is a huge swing! As recently as April, Scott was ahead by 17 points (LV).
Let’s send Rick "Gollum" Scott into retirement!
Amazing because she is in a contested primary.
I must confess, none of the other Democratic candidates have registered on my radar.
It's worth donating to her campaign.
Saw that ⬆️ in a FOX poll too along with Amendment 4 at 69% !
https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/07/shock-poll-new-fox-news-survey-has-trump-over-biden-by-just-4-points-in-florida/
📣 Heinous FL HB 433 affects SO many Floridians .Let’s help get them to the polls for a Biden/down-ballot win.
No water, no shade: How homebuilders, farming companies and construction firms got politicians to reject heat rules for outdoor workers in Florida
The final version of HB 433 did more than block local heat-safety rules, too.
📣The new law also stops cities and counties from passing local laws that would require businesses with lots of hourly and part-time employees — like fast-food restaurants and other chain retailers — to give workers their schedules two weeks in advance. It will also dissolve local “living wage” ordinances, which will allow government contractors doing business in many of Florida’s big cities to cut pay for tens of thousands of employees.
Sen. Ana Maria Rodriguez (R-Miami) — cast the pivotal vote in favor of HB 433 that enabled that bill to pass.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jasongarcia/p/no-water-no-shade-how-homebuilders?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Essentially, Florida and numerous other Republican-controlled states are doing their utmost to introduce neo-Feudalism.
Meanwhile Nate silver is a joke... LoL
Biden approval dips to new lows https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3038910/bidens-net-approval-drops-2024-trump-rematch/
Poor Donald. Nancy Pelosi has grabbed him by his fragile ego – and lives rent-free in his sick mind.
It’s the Max Mara coat. Which, by the way, I coveted.
I am 100% sure that if a young Donald Trump approached a young Nancy Pelosi (or Nancy D’Allesandro) he’d be roundly and soundly rejected.
Let's keep the momentum going! I've been tuning in a lot lately to the Navigator polls. To see Joe ahead by 4 points is good news. As Simon said, the more actual voters start tuning into the election, the uglier Trump looks. Anyone not tied to that monster's brain knows we are not going back to the insanity during his first term. Real patriots will not let our democracy die in the hands of that Convicted Felon and his cronies.
Good news out of the SC today but we women (and men) still have a huge fight ahead of us to gain all the loses and pain being aimed at women's bodies. Keep the faith & as Biden's mom told him share the faith.
IMO, Biden's lead will expand further if the Judge actually sentences Trump to prison. Hard to imagine that he wouldn't have to serve time given Michael Cohen did, and the fact that Trump never complied with the Judge's orders.
I went back on X the other day (first time in years) so I could tune in to GOP/MAGA talking points and push back with facts. It's like shooting fish in a barrel!
Or probation – with conditions that Trump is likely to violate.
Thanks for this update, Simon. Great ad.
Donald J6 Trump must be defeated.
Simon - not sure if you have the time to read comments, but in the event you do I'd like to ask a question. I think it would benefit the Biden campaign to have the Jan 6 hearings aired multiple times during the last few months before the election on TV. Americans seem to have amnesia, so best to remind them. Also, is there a way to get email addresses of Independents and Republicans in swing states and send them links to specific hearings on YouTube? We need to remind Americans of the importance of maintaining our democracy.
The Ohio congressional election was interesting where Dem over performed again. I think it was in Ohio🤪
MAGA Republicans shout louder and make more outrageous lies the more desperate and scared they get. Real Republicans would Flush the Felon.
I hope the Felon's visit to the hill generates photos of MAGA members peeing their pants, especially the Squeaker.
To borrow a term from the excellent British series "Coupling" (a raunchier and better version of "Friends"), it would appear that Trump might be ... "unflushable".
WE NEED TO WIN BIG, peeps‼️None if this 3-4% difference stuff come November: in other words NO RED WAVE‼️Go, Dems‼️
Despite all of this great news, can you explain why there are folks supposedly in the "democratic" camp who consistently portray Biden as doing badly, saying if "the election were tomorrow he would lose" or "he has no campaign agenda, no message" or "he's losing Hispanic non college educated voters" blah blah blah. What is the point of that? Why are they so negative? Do they purposely want to drive down voter turnout? I just don't get it. Your numbers don't lie, and after the special election in Ohio... voters don't lie either. Thank you for all you do Simon in keeping us focused and hopeful. Got to drown out the noise from the begrudgers.
Because that’s what MSM is portraying and they highlight polls that aren’t good for Biden which are usually trash polls. Sinclair also is reporting Biden as old on their local stations all over, quoting the WSJ article which was a bit piece on Biden and full of lies. Lies keep getting repeated and MSM is glad to spread them. We must continue to amplify democratic messaging and Biden’s accomplishments. We need to stay positive and not star our sentences with negative qualifiers, like Biden isn’t perfect…but. No, we say, Biden has been a great president and America does better with Dems in charge…they will protect and restore our freedoms, pass policies that will help us provide for our families, etc.
That WSJ hit piece was disgraceful. It only quoted Keven McCarthy, who once opined that Biden was "sharp as a tack." You can tell that Murdoch owns the WSJ.
There's no explaining that attitude. Perhaps they are listening to the biased media or pessimistic pundits. There was a time early on when I felt that way myself, but the tide has turned and I'm guardedly optimistic and donating to Dems regularly. I suspect many of these folks will come around as November grows close and Trump continues his unhinged ways.
I just heard that again today; Molly Jong Fast I think. If the election were today trump would win. I call bullshit.
That’s disappointing from Molly - was she trying the scare people into action approach? That never works with me and I find it counterproductive.
Agreed! I don't mean to throw anyone under the bus but I'm reading the depressing stuff from Ruy Teixeria - who isn't some rando political observer.
Ruy is now at the right-wing AEI. I would take him with a grain of salt. He seems like a disgruntled pundit - his whole “abundance agenda” stuff is just trying to put a liberal face on old fashioned union busting/bashing from his new bosses at the AEI. There’s a reason he’s no longer at The Center for American Progress.
He also relies very heavily on old polling data about the economy and has the post-2016 pundit fascination with the non-college educated demo. So, don’t be too disheartened by his takes. There’s some value to listening to it and incorporating some different perspectives. However, I think he’s just doing some axe grinding and overly negative - especially when it comes to President Biden.
Thank you for the perspective Nathaniel, it helps me understand where he is coming from and what his agenda is.
Then you have Nate silver
Biden approval dips to new lows https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3038910/bidens-net-approval-drops-2024-trump-rematch/
Nate SIlver cites Biden’s "low approval rating" as a risk for Democrats.
But Nate says nary a word about Trump’s felony convictions, that he’s an adjudicated rapist, his fraud and tax evasion, his corruption in broad daylight, his packing the Supreme Court with reactionary justices who lied about respecting Roe v Wade as "established precedent" and instead took away reproductive rights for America’s women – something Trump has bragged about! – his extreme rhetoric and outright threats of violence, and Trump’s promise to turn America into an authoritarian, Fascist country.
Strangely, Nate Silver doesn’t seem to think any of these factors will impact the 2020 election at all!
I’m hopeful the DNC use the Trump gibberish and non-sensical Nevada “speech” where he talked about electrocution in the boat with sharks. Even the Trumpers looked shocked. His mental state is deteriorating in front of us. Dr. John Gartner has explained what we are seeing and why. I’d run that whackadoodle word salad on every channel followed by Vote Biden.
Contrasted, perhaps, with choice segments of President Biden’s State-of-the-Union speech.
It's out there. Dems should hammer that message hard. I dare Trump to debate Biden. (I think he'll chicken out)
Hi Simon, maybe it's time to update the photo you are using for your "With Democrats Things Get Better" - all those campaign signs are from 2020!
When is MSM going to push back against the bald faced lies of MAGA? I listened to Steve Inskeep’s interview with John Catsimatidis on NPR this morning. JC is a Trump buddy. Blamed Biden for Jay Powell and high interest rates. No reply that Trump appointed Powell or that the Fed is independent. JC then said the judge in the NY case convicted Trump. No pushback from Inskeep. Judges don’t do the convicting!!!!It’s jurors comprised of 12 ordinary citizens who served when called. It undermines our institutions when journalists don’t challenge such distortions. SMH.
My own personal latest from the "making June count" front: I just did the onboarding orientation for the Biden/DNC "2024 Victory Call Crew". Time to throw some phone-banking into the mix! No rest 'til November!
If you'd like to join me, please sign up for an upcoming training here: https://events.democrats.org/event/551644/
How did it go? Do you recommend it? We all need to learn more about this.....
It went great! I *do* recommend it! I'm cramped for time right now so I can't write more at the moment, but will do so tomorrow.