From what I’ve heard, 7 Million is the number of people registered for the protest. But people participated who were not registered, so as counts come in to Indivisible this number may grow.
I wondered about that. I registered in Boston but went with my husband and two adult kids, none of whom were registered. Also a friend and her wife were planning to attend locally but hadn’t registered.
I took public tranportation (our light rail) to uptown Charlotte. I got on at the southernmost station, so the train generally comes in right after the last one departs. We got on early and got seats, but by the time it departed that station it was standing room only. By the third stop, people were packed in like sardines and for later stops there were platform announcements that the train was full and to wait for the next train. For reference, we got off at the 15th stop.
We arrived a few minutes before the official start and the park was already packed. the estimated attendence was 7000 people but I think that is based on registrations. The montage of photos in this substack article includes a photo from Charlotte:
Friends, 7 million is the official estimate from Indivisible and the organizers of No Kings. It is a good number. 2m more than last time, the biggest single day protest in US history. Take the win, celebrate it, and let's make the next big protest November 4th and shoot to have big, big wins there too.
Same here! We lined both sides of the street, with numerous people honking in approval from their vehicles as they drove by. And, they held their own signs! 😊👍🏼👍🏼
Our event was a rally in a park followed by a ~1.5 mile march through uptown - but with the roads shutdown. So no honks or waves unless people walked to the march route to cheer us on. We did have a handful of those along the route.
But I'm reading lots of reports of smaller protests (where people lined the sidewalks of open streets) and passengers in the cars passing by were waving their own signs as well as honking and waving including several posts here.
That required forethought and planning, so they weren't just showing the passive support of random passersby giving the protesters a honk of approval. I find that super encouraging!
Hi Simon--Just want to be clear that my response to Leslie below wasn't intended to be a response to you. While you were posting. I was writing, and didn't see your response until after you posted. I totally respect your expertise, as you know. That being said, I *am* concerned about accepting the 7 million number, as I was about accepting the 5 million number in June, and feel that in the latter case, those concerns have been borne out by subsequent events.
I want to trust that 7 million is a good number, and won't just disappear under the waves after a couple of days, because I'm definitely concerned about what happens if it does. I was pretty stunned by what I saw at the second rally I went to, in New Haven, ie a lot of people whose anger about what's going on made *mine* seem *tame.*
I will be attending Indivisible's call tomorrow night, and hope to hear a concrete plan for how to maximize the impact of yesterday's actions. What I've heard so far is that they plan to use some of the momentum to go after capitulators, which my viscera likes but my head, like yours, I suspect, worries will involve tearing our side apart.
What I want to hear is a plan to use the protests to put the fear of God into enough Republicans in Congress that they consider their political future more than they do being primaried by Trump, turning your small cracks into a dam break (I have some ideas about how to do that which I'll be sharing with them, offering my help to make them happen). I'll admit, though, that I'm not sure how helpful 7 million is to that cause, though I've started work on one focused on small town and rural turnout that doesn't depend on the overall number at all.
Simon, how do they even get that number? Babies were there. Tots. A junior high kid wouldn't be able to register, especially not using a school address.
Register and hear what the organizers have to say. Recordings of the previous calls have been posted on the No Kings website (usually fairly promptly), if you can't attend the Zoom.
Will attend, Cheryl. I already registered twice, not intentionally!. Thanks for sharing the link with everyone.
Think about what Indivisible has achieved regarding the protests! It's nothing short of amazingly astonishing (I like to used adverbs with my adjectives!). Many of us have volunteered with our local Indivisible groups around the country over the last few years on all types of events, but what they have accomplished with these protest rallies in such a short time -- yeah, it is only 10 months into the traitorous wanna be king's regime -- is spectacular.
Exactly! Take the win and plan for the next. The official Natl Park Svc stopped counting years ago here in WDC when they took lots of flak for not getting the numbers "right." So now other groups are doing it. Yes, there's a mathematical/statistical formula used by taking aerial photos and then counting people per square inch, or something like that (I teach ESL, not math!).
But who cares! April's Hands off was really good, June's No Kings 1.0 even better, and Saturday's No Kings 2.0 "estimated" at 2 million more than June's. Take the win and run with it. On to what's next. That's what matters. AND, we have to translate the numbers of people protesting into the number of people VOTING!! This year and next...everywhere. That's how we win. Gear up...it's going to be a long haul until the midterms.
If their methodology is the same as it was in June, the vast majority of those estimates will come from the national corporate media (which has proven completely untrustworthy), local media (90% owned by the far right), and/or the police (who always low-ball, and always have, and increasingly right-wing), not event organizers.
And in fact, Morris has explicitly said he is taking the word of "official estimates" over that of event organizers. Which leads me to wonder: Official meaning who? The police? The right-wing local media? The capitulating corporate national media? The reason for this is supposed to be that organizers are "motivated" to "overestimate." My take; (a) If this was ever accurate to begin with, it ain't now--organizers, out of fear for their credibility, are consistently conservative in their estimates, often ridiculously so, and they often don't even dare use words like "conservative" or "at least" in what they report (b) How are organizers any more "motivated" to "overestimate' than the media and police are "motivated' to *underestimate,* and why should their numbers be taken as any more official than those of organizers?
Also, at least in the case of the national media, they're supposedly trained on best practices in counting, but I don't know why we should believe that's true of local media and police? And if it's not, shouldn't human beings' natural propensity to underestimate large numbers of anything (as proven repeatedly in research) be taken into account?
Thanks much for this, Leslie. If this is correct, the real number is likely much higher. In the current environment of fear and retaliation, how many people really want to put their names on a registration list that may someday be seized by a fascist government (which has already signaled its intent to do so)? In the overwhelming and cacophonous information environment in which we live, how many people--hundreds of thousands? millions?--may well have stumbled upon these rallies without advance knowledge and joined them. If we learned anything from 2024, it's that we can't assume anyone knows anything.
Within the June estimate of 5 million, 75% of that count came from media and police estimates, NOT the organizers of the rallies (I know this because I went into the Strength In Numbers spreadsheet and counted) and it has long been the case that media outlets get their numbers *from* the police, who are notoriously motivated to undercount. Furthermore, in the case of No Kings, as opposed to traditional marches in DC, many of these estimates come from *local,* not national media, which, in the case of radio, TV, and, increasingly, print is almost entirely controlled by the far right (eg ask people who participated in Fayetteville, AR's June rally what they think of the media estimates that Strength In Numbers used).
This is now the third set of these rallies where there has been wide divergence between "official" and unofficial counts--600K vs 5-6M, 5M vs 12.5M, 7M vs TBD (AltNPS hasn't announced yet)--and I guess I find myself wondering what the strategy is behind accepting corporate media/police low‐ball estimates every time. The other side is NEVER "conservative" in what it says and does, so why are we, to the point where we aren't even willing to (publicly) call our estimates *conservative?* It seems to me like obeying in advance.
If the thinking is to keep the GOP whistling in the dark until 11/26, I think that's a mistake. There are articles coming out of yesterday's rallies (eg NBC) in which many protesters are already expressing frustration with the lack of change coming out of these efforts. The only way Simon's small cracks become dam breaks is if a significant portion of the GOP Congress has a come to Jesus moment where Trump vs their political future is concerned. Polls aren't going to do that, because they are confident in their ability (in their bubble) to unconstitutionally suppress the vote and get away with it. Huge numbers of people willing to put themselves publicly out there on the line during downtime are probably a different matter. A bump from 5 million to 7 is nice, but it's modest enough to allow those who read the likes of the Times to actually believe it when this "bastion of liberalism" claims (as it did as of yesterday afternoon at 5 PM in their story about the protests--five stories below the lede) that Trump’s approval rating hasn't really dropped since the protests began in April. 10, 15, 20 million? That's a different story, and not one the GOP can blow off.
Which is what we need, I think, because if people keep demonstrating without effect, we could find ourselves back where we were in October 2022, when so many were ready to capitulate to the red wave until Simon called out the whole thing as a GOP/Media lie and rallied people to the polls. This is a different world--the demoralization they tried to manufacture with fake polls in the final month of 2022 isn't even a pin prick compared with what they will have done every day for two years, and as we learned from the impact of years of daily Biden blame for the inflation Trump caused, these days October is too late for a surprise. Whatever we may think about the efficacy of protests, most Americans believe they have impact (just saw a poll on that this AM), which to me behooves us to maximize the inpact they have.
I believe a picture is worth a thousand lies. So one thing I will be doing, as relentlessly as the GOP would, is finding any and every excuse--until the next No Kings rally--to circulate pictures of the crowds Simon shared and others, mention the number of other rallies that took place, and call BS on 7 million.
Again, to be clear, 2.3M was Alt NPS's count eighteen hours ago when they still had a lot of counting to do. Later, they posted the official count, which they said they could "happily confirm" and were still counting, so whatever number they end up at, it's clearly going to be higher than the official one, but you're right, amd thanks,23M is jumping the gun and I suspect it won't end up that high, though even AltNPS has some limits (the same ones that cause birders to underestimate the size of bird flocks by 50%, the same ones that apply to Jacob's Method; also snapshot attendance is lower than total attendance, and the literature that dismisses this as a factor is misleading because it's based wholly on DC-based demonstrations, where of course, if you come to the Capitol to demonstrate, you're going to be there from start to finish--very different from No Kings, 2,000+ events all across the country that anyone can drop in on)
⬆️" This is now the third set of these rallies where there has been wide divergence between "official" and unofficial counts--600K vs 5-6M, 5M vs 12.5M, 7M vs TBD (AltNPS hasn't announced yet)--and I guess I find myself wondering what the strategy is behind accepting corporate media/police low‐ball estimates every time."
How do you know they are "low ball"? I'm not talking about media posts when they say thousands yet individual protests were estimated at 10s or 100s of thousands. Those are indeed low ball estimates from Corporate Media.
I mean why do you call 5M a low ball just because some other group says a much higher number? How do you know they aren't inflating their numbers or using bad methodology?
I'm a statistician by training and whenever you estimate numbers (i.e., there isn't a way to get an exact count like tickets collected at the door of a theatre), the real answer usually falls somewhere between the low and high estimates. But there are reasons why the distribution of estimates may be skewed to one side or the other, so you can't just assume it should fall in the middle. The highest estimate is rarely correct, and the earlier the estimate (when very few protest sites have actually reported their numbers), the more it is likely to change as more organizers report their events and you replace modeled data with estimated counts using sound methodology.
And there are logical reasons the range may be wide. It is complicated by the fact that there is a wide range of events sizes with large cities to tiny small towns. And counts of any sort may not even be available for some events because no one reported them - so those need to "modeled" based on assumptions. Many of the organizers may not have any training in counting and they may not be using the same methodology. Here is a good article about counting:
Fascinating. Thanks, Cheryl! Numbers aside, there were protests in small towns across the country. And Fox News viewers saw that with their own eyes, which is really important. One small town in the mountains of NC has 146 residents, and there were 104 at their rally! This kind of stuff helps to counteract the false narrative that Fox is spinning, regardless of the accuracy of the count.
Yup, I am aware of Jacob's Method. How many local police forces and local media outlets do you think are aware of it and used it in making the estimates Strength In Numbers are using?
I'm also aware of the weaknesses of that method, which are strikingly similar to the reasons researchers have found birders routinely underestimate the size of bird flocks by as much as 50% (I'm not a statistician, but I am an avid birder with a couple of decades of experience doing quantitative and qualitative research in new media & ed tech).
My guess is that counters unfamiliar with Jacob would be even more likely to underestimate, particularly if, as I believe is the case, those local counters (media & police) are at least as motivated to low‐ball counts as organizers are to overestimate, which is why I consider the compilations of those estimates to be low-ball even though I have no doubt, especially given Simon's respect for him, that this is far from Morris's intent.
That being said, I totally agree with you that the truth is likely between the high and low estimates, and thank you for the articles, which are excellent (I'm pretty sure I've read a couple of them before)
We should have a good estimate for each of the 2700 events. I think we need 11 M to reach critical mass to effect change
Ex for the last event Providence had 8000. The goal the time was 15,000. The estimate of attendance was 32,000. This is huge. We need these numbers for all events
Are you sure about this? Because in April they apparently told the press 600,000 people had signed up and the press ran with it as the total number of attendees. And there seems to be fuzziness about what the organizers have said, eg I've seen reports of "nearly 7 million" in the media (allegedly from the organizers) and "more than 7 million" actually from the organizers.
I was the only one registered out of our group of 4 at yesterday's protest. Plenty of people are hesitant to sign up with real contact info given the repression and demonization coming from trump and the regime.
Just one example, but our small town's protest had about 700 people yesterday, but last weekend there were around 275 people registered. I don't know the final number registered as of yesterday morning, but Indivisible said registrations doubled in the final week. So if our numbers followed that trend, that's 275x2= 550. Giving us about 150 attendees who didn't register, about 20% of the total number in attendance.
The whole idea of registering for a protest cracks me up, and not entirely in a good way. Especially now, when the administration in power has no respect for civil rights, privacy, or anything else. Those of us who came of political age when JEdgar Hoover was still on the loose know better -- and the onset of the Reagan administration continued the repression tradition.
WHO COULD DENY #NoKingsDay rallies are/were a penultimate expression of the rights we have living in a free and democratic society. MIKE JOHNSON's statements were obviously a prepared script and #propaganda. Let the photos speak for themselves!
I agree with you! I'd also say that the rallies illustrated the clear and present determination of the American people to HOLD those rights in defiance of the hateful group that wishes to take them away!
Seattle was out in force -- mile-long march from Seattle Center which was joined by our march from Capital Hill -- very exciting to see so many more young people, middle aged, families -- the faces of Americans.
so true! no uniforms (see of red hats), with baby man making it all about himself, no hate speech in the crowds, just large creative joyful display of who we are at our best, and who we are not!
Honestly, I am more encouraged when small towns see big increases in turnout because that tells us directly that more people are getting the message.
From a cumulative count perspective, only the larger urban cities are likely to move the needle. But a bunch of smaller protests doubling or tripling their attendance may say more about the change in sentiment and engagement than is reflected in the change in total counts.
Amazing turnout in tiny Black Mountain, NC. Unofficial estimates of at least 2K. (I asked one of the headcounters.) I only saw three counter protesters and they had no energy and were being overwhelmed by our cheers, tutus, smiles and proud patriots. There was an elderly gentleman being pushed in a wheelchair and he, his wife, and (presumably) son were all dressed in revolutionary uniforms with signs reminding us they were the OG No Kings! Folks. Great day, great energy. I'm just a visitor and ran into local organizers who want to brainstorm more ways to go forward and help our country. It was a very encouraging day.
We had one counter-protester driving around with a giant T**** flag mounted on a Prius 😂. If there were more I didn’t see them. There were some pickup trucks with their windows closed driving away as fast as possible.
It was big, much bigger than June, peaceful, fun, and invigorating.
I couldn’t tell, it was across a busy street. We were laughing about his big flag and bravery to drive through a peaceful crowd that wasn’t in his way.
New Haven, CT showed up filling up the lower green. Perfect day to be out protesting. So good to be with so many patriots, young and old, in community.
Interesting is one of the speakers, a Yale Historian had been challenging the President of the Heritage Foundation, also a historian, to a debate. Was turned down many times but he now has agreed and the 1st debate will be held at Yale in February. Second one in Philly next year.
I am hoping the debate at Yale will be opened to the public. I will be there if it is.
It was hard to hear him from where I was standing but he did joke that it may not happen if Trump finds out about it. We'll see. Still trying to find out his name. Powerful speaker that left us with his last message to get out our Constitution booklets and "read the damn thing"
I was in Monroe, Michigan yesterday - amazing turnout (in a Trump town). Several hundred people all joyful protesting in front of the town’s statue of hometown hero (ha!) George Custer. Lots of (honking) support from many cars driving by.
There were numerous pop up rallies around Atlanta and Georgia that are unlikely to be included in the counts. And a lot of unregistered people showed up at the locations announced through No Kings. Based on observations and reports from friends attending these various rallies, I believe a more accurate number would add 20-25% to those who registered with No Kings.
Unregistered events can be counted if they post on social media with location, numbers, and a #NoKings hashtag. Beyond the registered events, counters are searching social media.
I'm wondering about unregistered events, too. At the weekly Indivisible call the week before last, Leah announced that registration for events was closing that night, unlike for No Kings 1, when you could continue to register events in the last week. Because of the threats by trump, they wanted to get a bunch of resources about safety, etc, out to organizers, so they needed the extra time in the last week to do that.
Surely that caught some people out. That call was 3 pm Eastern time. I don't know when registration actually closed- midnight Eastern or Pacific? These events are all volunteer organized. I'm sure not everyone made the deadline.
Simon, these clips made my heart glad. Indivisible.org has done a terrific job. Redwood City CA had a great turnout. Peaceful, fairly orderly, frog suits and big blubbery mansuit in attendance. Would have needed a drone to get photos.
I will be canvassing for Prop 50 in CA today. Unfortunately it's at best a gesture; I don't think it will be effective other than to show we can fight back. Need to stop using Dominion voting machines!
FWIW- I’m surrounded by GOP operatives where I am (OKC). Know them. Talk to them. They are obsessed with NJ Governor. They are convinced they will win that one, and that will “steal” the narrative on election night no matter what happens elsewhere.
So, I’m donating and offering services to Sherrill campaign. Doing everything I can there. I unfortunately cannot travel there for GOTV.
(1) From NY Times: Most independent polls show Mikie Sherrill, the Democrat, leading Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican, by five to 10 percentage points.
(2) I put 25 postcards to NJ voters in the mail Friday, another 25 will go out Saturday. Write on!
I just checked and there are just under 5000 postcard addresses unclaimed for NJ Governors race on Sincereapp platform for Activate America. Find out how to create an account on SinceApp here:
From today's newsletter: Send your photos to community@hopiumchronicles.com and we will do another roundup of images from Hopium folks later today or tomorrow.
I feel like a different person today. I hope there is a pep in everyone’s step like there is for me. We have accomplished something that has never been done before - the largest one-day peaceful protest in American history. We should all be very proud of ourselves. We have lots of work to do ahead, but we should be proud of what we have already accomplished. Can’t wait to hear from Leah and Ezra, I know they will have some inspiring words for all of us.
For me here in Central New Jersey, it was inspiring to see the privileged and the working class, the “rock stars” and the regular people all out together because they care about the future of this country and of their children. I’m going to spend the day going through all the clips from everywhere around the country and stay away from the MSM trying to prognosticate. Today is a day for celebration and rest for the work ahead. Keep going!
now hold on...what do you consider central nj.....inside joke here. we always debate what is central nj; i worked in jackson as a lad and considered it south jersey; they considered it central.....some consider the parkway bridge in sayreville as the start of north jersey, actually many do, but that would surprise the people there who consider it central.....elizabeth is considered to be the start of north jersey. the great snowstorm of 2/6/2010 was illustrative; it split the state; north of monmouth county had a nuisance event, south had a blizzard of epic proportions, 2 feet or more. i drove to the camden aquarium with my kids that sunday, watching 3 inch drifts on the turnpike get bigger and bigger as we went south; i have the photos of the massive drifts in camden to show for it. a later blizzard that month did the exact opposite; south of middlesex not much, and increasing as you went north. and the last noreaster was similar; weather often does this here. anyway, we had a great turnout in union county, rahway, central nj.....
Until reconfiguration recently, Central Jersey was an actual athletics conference in state public schools. I didn't create it, merely citing evidence from a public institution: https://www.cjpwc.org/
PS - I am in the Asbury Park area, 20 miles south of the Raritan Bay. If that's not central, I don't know what is! :)
oh i know...it's a long boat ride from sayreville, but we've done it. usually don't go further south than the red church. best bet is to launch in shark river at that point. that link has the bricks and toms river in cnj! but a lot of it is spot on. another interesting tidbit; what is nyc metro area.....yes toms river and also the poconos!
I think the Boston crowd was as “small” as it was only because there were so many to choose from in Massachusetts. I could have picked from 4 within a 5-mile radius of my house. We chose Boston because I wanted to feel the enormity of the moment.
I agree - i think that's overall true for many of the major cities who now happily have events popping up all around them for people to choose from. Same for Los Angeles downtown.
I chose Newton Centre for that reason accessibility. But a bigger crowed from 6/15 ~1500 at the intersection of Beacon and Centre Streets great vibe weather people and cause !!!!🇺🇸❤️
I was in the Boston crowd. Didn’t seem small to me. There were a lot of protests locations in MA. Also, Head of the Charles Regatta this wreaking which was competing for attention and jammed up the City’s traffic even more than usual.
Also Friends and Family Weekend for both Harvard and Boston Universities. Why they do that on HOTC weekend I’ll never know but LOTS of extra people in town
From what I’ve heard, 7 Million is the number of people registered for the protest. But people participated who were not registered, so as counts come in to Indivisible this number may grow.
I wondered about that. I registered in Boston but went with my husband and two adult kids, none of whom were registered. Also a friend and her wife were planning to attend locally but hadn’t registered.
Same here. I know so many people who attended and did not register—like most of the folks I know who attended.
I took public tranportation (our light rail) to uptown Charlotte. I got on at the southernmost station, so the train generally comes in right after the last one departs. We got on early and got seats, but by the time it departed that station it was standing room only. By the third stop, people were packed in like sardines and for later stops there were platform announcements that the train was full and to wait for the next train. For reference, we got off at the 15th stop.
We arrived a few minutes before the official start and the park was already packed. the estimated attendence was 7000 people but I think that is based on registrations. The montage of photos in this substack article includes a photo from Charlotte:
https://womenforward.substack.com/p/we-marched-now-what,
Friends, 7 million is the official estimate from Indivisible and the organizers of No Kings. It is a good number. 2m more than last time, the biggest single day protest in US history. Take the win, celebrate it, and let's make the next big protest November 4th and shoot to have big, big wins there too.
Don’t forget folks like me who just couldn’t be there but are with the movement. The true number of people who support No Kings is even bigger.
At our event we had huge participation from cars and trucks driving by with their own signs and flags, honking horns
Same here! We lined both sides of the street, with numerous people honking in approval from their vehicles as they drove by. And, they held their own signs! 😊👍🏼👍🏼
7 million is fabulous! But it’s true that many do not register—I am one of those.
Me too. So, we're at least at 7,000,002, Simon. :)
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻!!!!!!!
Our event was a rally in a park followed by a ~1.5 mile march through uptown - but with the roads shutdown. So no honks or waves unless people walked to the march route to cheer us on. We did have a handful of those along the route.
But I'm reading lots of reports of smaller protests (where people lined the sidewalks of open streets) and passengers in the cars passing by were waving their own signs as well as honking and waving including several posts here.
That required forethought and planning, so they weren't just showing the passive support of random passersby giving the protesters a honk of approval. I find that super encouraging!
Right. Significant growth-40% more if my poor math skills are even close. Certainly I noticed more younger people joining the Grantifas!
Another big increase and we hit the 3-3.5% of resistance needed to stop authoritarianism!!!
Hi Simon--Just want to be clear that my response to Leslie below wasn't intended to be a response to you. While you were posting. I was writing, and didn't see your response until after you posted. I totally respect your expertise, as you know. That being said, I *am* concerned about accepting the 7 million number, as I was about accepting the 5 million number in June, and feel that in the latter case, those concerns have been borne out by subsequent events.
I want to trust that 7 million is a good number, and won't just disappear under the waves after a couple of days, because I'm definitely concerned about what happens if it does. I was pretty stunned by what I saw at the second rally I went to, in New Haven, ie a lot of people whose anger about what's going on made *mine* seem *tame.*
I will be attending Indivisible's call tomorrow night, and hope to hear a concrete plan for how to maximize the impact of yesterday's actions. What I've heard so far is that they plan to use some of the momentum to go after capitulators, which my viscera likes but my head, like yours, I suspect, worries will involve tearing our side apart.
What I want to hear is a plan to use the protests to put the fear of God into enough Republicans in Congress that they consider their political future more than they do being primaried by Trump, turning your small cracks into a dam break (I have some ideas about how to do that which I'll be sharing with them, offering my help to make them happen). I'll admit, though, that I'm not sure how helpful 7 million is to that cause, though I've started work on one focused on small town and rural turnout that doesn't depend on the overall number at all.
I don't understand why your so quick to accept 7 million figure when so many believe it was larger.
Simon, how do they even get that number? Babies were there. Tots. A junior high kid wouldn't be able to register, especially not using a school address.
Thanks. I’d been wondering how many more folks showed up this time😊☮️
Here is link for the No Kings mass call on Tuesday at 8 pm ET:
www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/858246/
Register and hear what the organizers have to say. Recordings of the previous calls have been posted on the No Kings website (usually fairly promptly), if you can't attend the Zoom.
Will attend, Cheryl. I already registered twice, not intentionally!. Thanks for sharing the link with everyone.
Think about what Indivisible has achieved regarding the protests! It's nothing short of amazingly astonishing (I like to used adverbs with my adjectives!). Many of us have volunteered with our local Indivisible groups around the country over the last few years on all types of events, but what they have accomplished with these protest rallies in such a short time -- yeah, it is only 10 months into the traitorous wanna be king's regime -- is spectacular.
Exactly! Take the win and plan for the next. The official Natl Park Svc stopped counting years ago here in WDC when they took lots of flak for not getting the numbers "right." So now other groups are doing it. Yes, there's a mathematical/statistical formula used by taking aerial photos and then counting people per square inch, or something like that (I teach ESL, not math!).
But who cares! April's Hands off was really good, June's No Kings 1.0 even better, and Saturday's No Kings 2.0 "estimated" at 2 million more than June's. Take the win and run with it. On to what's next. That's what matters. AND, we have to translate the numbers of people protesting into the number of people VOTING!! This year and next...everywhere. That's how we win. Gear up...it's going to be a long haul until the midterms.
As Simon predicted, it was the largest day of nation-wide protest in U.S. history! https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/no-kings-protests-trump-administration-live-updates-rcna238009
Morris compiling estimates of attendance 👇
https://open.substack.com/pub/gelliottmorris/p/second-no-kings-day-protests-likely
If their methodology is the same as it was in June, the vast majority of those estimates will come from the national corporate media (which has proven completely untrustworthy), local media (90% owned by the far right), and/or the police (who always low-ball, and always have, and increasingly right-wing), not event organizers.
And in fact, Morris has explicitly said he is taking the word of "official estimates" over that of event organizers. Which leads me to wonder: Official meaning who? The police? The right-wing local media? The capitulating corporate national media? The reason for this is supposed to be that organizers are "motivated" to "overestimate." My take; (a) If this was ever accurate to begin with, it ain't now--organizers, out of fear for their credibility, are consistently conservative in their estimates, often ridiculously so, and they often don't even dare use words like "conservative" or "at least" in what they report (b) How are organizers any more "motivated" to "overestimate' than the media and police are "motivated' to *underestimate,* and why should their numbers be taken as any more official than those of organizers?
Also, at least in the case of the national media, they're supposedly trained on best practices in counting, but I don't know why we should believe that's true of local media and police? And if it's not, shouldn't human beings' natural propensity to underestimate large numbers of anything (as proven repeatedly in research) be taken into account?
Thanks much for this, Leslie. If this is correct, the real number is likely much higher. In the current environment of fear and retaliation, how many people really want to put their names on a registration list that may someday be seized by a fascist government (which has already signaled its intent to do so)? In the overwhelming and cacophonous information environment in which we live, how many people--hundreds of thousands? millions?--may well have stumbled upon these rallies without advance knowledge and joined them. If we learned anything from 2024, it's that we can't assume anyone knows anything.
Within the June estimate of 5 million, 75% of that count came from media and police estimates, NOT the organizers of the rallies (I know this because I went into the Strength In Numbers spreadsheet and counted) and it has long been the case that media outlets get their numbers *from* the police, who are notoriously motivated to undercount. Furthermore, in the case of No Kings, as opposed to traditional marches in DC, many of these estimates come from *local,* not national media, which, in the case of radio, TV, and, increasingly, print is almost entirely controlled by the far right (eg ask people who participated in Fayetteville, AR's June rally what they think of the media estimates that Strength In Numbers used).
This is now the third set of these rallies where there has been wide divergence between "official" and unofficial counts--600K vs 5-6M, 5M vs 12.5M, 7M vs TBD (AltNPS hasn't announced yet)--and I guess I find myself wondering what the strategy is behind accepting corporate media/police low‐ball estimates every time. The other side is NEVER "conservative" in what it says and does, so why are we, to the point where we aren't even willing to (publicly) call our estimates *conservative?* It seems to me like obeying in advance.
If the thinking is to keep the GOP whistling in the dark until 11/26, I think that's a mistake. There are articles coming out of yesterday's rallies (eg NBC) in which many protesters are already expressing frustration with the lack of change coming out of these efforts. The only way Simon's small cracks become dam breaks is if a significant portion of the GOP Congress has a come to Jesus moment where Trump vs their political future is concerned. Polls aren't going to do that, because they are confident in their ability (in their bubble) to unconstitutionally suppress the vote and get away with it. Huge numbers of people willing to put themselves publicly out there on the line during downtime are probably a different matter. A bump from 5 million to 7 is nice, but it's modest enough to allow those who read the likes of the Times to actually believe it when this "bastion of liberalism" claims (as it did as of yesterday afternoon at 5 PM in their story about the protests--five stories below the lede) that Trump’s approval rating hasn't really dropped since the protests began in April. 10, 15, 20 million? That's a different story, and not one the GOP can blow off.
Which is what we need, I think, because if people keep demonstrating without effect, we could find ourselves back where we were in October 2022, when so many were ready to capitulate to the red wave until Simon called out the whole thing as a GOP/Media lie and rallied people to the polls. This is a different world--the demoralization they tried to manufacture with fake polls in the final month of 2022 isn't even a pin prick compared with what they will have done every day for two years, and as we learned from the impact of years of daily Biden blame for the inflation Trump caused, these days October is too late for a surprise. Whatever we may think about the efficacy of protests, most Americans believe they have impact (just saw a poll on that this AM), which to me behooves us to maximize the inpact they have.
I believe a picture is worth a thousand lies. So one thing I will be doing, as relentlessly as the GOP would, is finding any and every excuse--until the next No Kings rally--to circulate pictures of the crowds Simon shared and others, mention the number of other rallies that took place, and call BS on 7 million.
Again, 23 million from ALT Natl Park is NOT the right number they posted. Please read their post and not just the title.
It was 2.3 million.
Again, to be clear, 2.3M was Alt NPS's count eighteen hours ago when they still had a lot of counting to do. Later, they posted the official count, which they said they could "happily confirm" and were still counting, so whatever number they end up at, it's clearly going to be higher than the official one, but you're right, amd thanks,23M is jumping the gun and I suspect it won't end up that high, though even AltNPS has some limits (the same ones that cause birders to underestimate the size of bird flocks by 50%, the same ones that apply to Jacob's Method; also snapshot attendance is lower than total attendance, and the literature that dismisses this as a factor is misleading because it's based wholly on DC-based demonstrations, where of course, if you come to the Capitol to demonstrate, you're going to be there from start to finish--very different from No Kings, 2,000+ events all across the country that anyone can drop in on)
Well said Tom, Thank you!
⬆️" This is now the third set of these rallies where there has been wide divergence between "official" and unofficial counts--600K vs 5-6M, 5M vs 12.5M, 7M vs TBD (AltNPS hasn't announced yet)--and I guess I find myself wondering what the strategy is behind accepting corporate media/police low‐ball estimates every time."
How do you know they are "low ball"? I'm not talking about media posts when they say thousands yet individual protests were estimated at 10s or 100s of thousands. Those are indeed low ball estimates from Corporate Media.
I mean why do you call 5M a low ball just because some other group says a much higher number? How do you know they aren't inflating their numbers or using bad methodology?
I'm a statistician by training and whenever you estimate numbers (i.e., there isn't a way to get an exact count like tickets collected at the door of a theatre), the real answer usually falls somewhere between the low and high estimates. But there are reasons why the distribution of estimates may be skewed to one side or the other, so you can't just assume it should fall in the middle. The highest estimate is rarely correct, and the earlier the estimate (when very few protest sites have actually reported their numbers), the more it is likely to change as more organizers report their events and you replace modeled data with estimated counts using sound methodology.
And there are logical reasons the range may be wide. It is complicated by the fact that there is a wide range of events sizes with large cities to tiny small towns. And counts of any sort may not even be available for some events because no one reported them - so those need to "modeled" based on assumptions. Many of the organizers may not have any training in counting and they may not be using the same methodology. Here is a good article about counting:
www.wethepeopledissent.net/how-to-count-protests
Also, please check out these posts about the previous nationwide protest events:
https://thepeopledissent.substack.com/p/and-the-official-june-14-count-is
https://thepeopledissent.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-counts
https://thepeopledissent.substack.com/p/the-no-kings-count-is-41-to-52-and
https://thepeopledissent.substack.com/p/the-people-united-no-kings-20-poised
Fascinating. Thanks, Cheryl! Numbers aside, there were protests in small towns across the country. And Fox News viewers saw that with their own eyes, which is really important. One small town in the mountains of NC has 146 residents, and there were 104 at their rally! This kind of stuff helps to counteract the false narrative that Fox is spinning, regardless of the accuracy of the count.
Yup, I am aware of Jacob's Method. How many local police forces and local media outlets do you think are aware of it and used it in making the estimates Strength In Numbers are using?
I'm also aware of the weaknesses of that method, which are strikingly similar to the reasons researchers have found birders routinely underestimate the size of bird flocks by as much as 50% (I'm not a statistician, but I am an avid birder with a couple of decades of experience doing quantitative and qualitative research in new media & ed tech).
My guess is that counters unfamiliar with Jacob would be even more likely to underestimate, particularly if, as I believe is the case, those local counters (media & police) are at least as motivated to low‐ball counts as organizers are to overestimate, which is why I consider the compilations of those estimates to be low-ball even though I have no doubt, especially given Simon's respect for him, that this is far from Morris's intent.
That being said, I totally agree with you that the truth is likely between the high and low estimates, and thank you for the articles, which are excellent (I'm pretty sure I've read a couple of them before)
Right- this is important
We should have a good estimate for each of the 2700 events. I think we need 11 M to reach critical mass to effect change
Ex for the last event Providence had 8000. The goal the time was 15,000. The estimate of attendance was 32,000. This is huge. We need these numbers for all events
Indivisible etc account for people who attend but who did not register, in their final tally.
As Simon says, take the 7 million and make it bigger at the next major rally to come!
Are you sure about this? Because in April they apparently told the press 600,000 people had signed up and the press ran with it as the total number of attendees. And there seems to be fuzziness about what the organizers have said, eg I've seen reports of "nearly 7 million" in the media (allegedly from the organizers) and "more than 7 million" actually from the organizers.
Why so willing to accept initial numbers when other estimates are still coming.
I was the only one registered out of our group of 4 at yesterday's protest. Plenty of people are hesitant to sign up with real contact info given the repression and demonization coming from trump and the regime.
Just one example, but our small town's protest had about 700 people yesterday, but last weekend there were around 275 people registered. I don't know the final number registered as of yesterday morning, but Indivisible said registrations doubled in the final week. So if our numbers followed that trend, that's 275x2= 550. Giving us about 150 attendees who didn't register, about 20% of the total number in attendance.
The whole idea of registering for a protest cracks me up, and not entirely in a good way. Especially now, when the administration in power has no respect for civil rights, privacy, or anything else. Those of us who came of political age when JEdgar Hoover was still on the loose know better -- and the onset of the Reagan administration continued the repression tradition.
WHO COULD DENY #NoKingsDay rallies are/were a penultimate expression of the rights we have living in a free and democratic society. MIKE JOHNSON's statements were obviously a prepared script and #propaganda. Let the photos speak for themselves!
#LetFreedomRing
I agree with you! I'd also say that the rallies illustrated the clear and present determination of the American people to HOLD those rights in defiance of the hateful group that wishes to take them away!
Seattle was out in force -- mile-long march from Seattle Center which was joined by our march from Capital Hill -- very exciting to see so many more young people, middle aged, families -- the faces of Americans.
so true! no uniforms (see of red hats), with baby man making it all about himself, no hate speech in the crowds, just large creative joyful display of who we are at our best, and who we are not!
~1,700 in my town which is about double our last protest, according to our organizers.
Honestly, I am more encouraged when small towns see big increases in turnout because that tells us directly that more people are getting the message.
From a cumulative count perspective, only the larger urban cities are likely to move the needle. But a bunch of smaller protests doubling or tripling their attendance may say more about the change in sentiment and engagement than is reflected in the change in total counts.
Amazing turnout in tiny Black Mountain, NC. Unofficial estimates of at least 2K. (I asked one of the headcounters.) I only saw three counter protesters and they had no energy and were being overwhelmed by our cheers, tutus, smiles and proud patriots. There was an elderly gentleman being pushed in a wheelchair and he, his wife, and (presumably) son were all dressed in revolutionary uniforms with signs reminding us they were the OG No Kings! Folks. Great day, great energy. I'm just a visitor and ran into local organizers who want to brainstorm more ways to go forward and help our country. It was a very encouraging day.
We had one counter-protester driving around with a giant T**** flag mounted on a Prius 😂. If there were more I didn’t see them. There were some pickup trucks with their windows closed driving away as fast as possible.
It was big, much bigger than June, peaceful, fun, and invigorating.
A Prius? If it was a hybrid, that would be pure irony.
I couldn’t tell, it was across a busy street. We were laughing about his big flag and bravery to drive through a peaceful crowd that wasn’t in his way.
I don't think Prius has a gasoline-only model.
New Haven, CT showed up filling up the lower green. Perfect day to be out protesting. So good to be with so many patriots, young and old, in community.
Interesting is one of the speakers, a Yale Historian had been challenging the President of the Heritage Foundation, also a historian, to a debate. Was turned down many times but he now has agreed and the 1st debate will be held at Yale in February. Second one in Philly next year.
I am hoping the debate at Yale will be opened to the public. I will be there if it is.
Love this! There needs to be far more focus on the Heritage Foundation and Federalist Society, the authors of so much of this chaos and destruction.
It was hard to hear him from where I was standing but he did joke that it may not happen if Trump finds out about it. We'll see. Still trying to find out his name. Powerful speaker that left us with his last message to get out our Constitution booklets and "read the damn thing"
I was in Monroe, Michigan yesterday - amazing turnout (in a Trump town). Several hundred people all joyful protesting in front of the town’s statue of hometown hero (ha!) George Custer. Lots of (honking) support from many cars driving by.
Hello from Chelsea! I saw pictures of your protest - fantastic turnout! Well done, Monroe!!
20,000 joyful warriors in Madison, Wisconsin + many more in our small towns and suburbs !
There were numerous pop up rallies around Atlanta and Georgia that are unlikely to be included in the counts. And a lot of unregistered people showed up at the locations announced through No Kings. Based on observations and reports from friends attending these various rallies, I believe a more accurate number would add 20-25% to those who registered with No Kings.
Unregistered events can be counted if they post on social media with location, numbers, and a #NoKings hashtag. Beyond the registered events, counters are searching social media.
I'm wondering about unregistered events, too. At the weekly Indivisible call the week before last, Leah announced that registration for events was closing that night, unlike for No Kings 1, when you could continue to register events in the last week. Because of the threats by trump, they wanted to get a bunch of resources about safety, etc, out to organizers, so they needed the extra time in the last week to do that.
Surely that caught some people out. That call was 3 pm Eastern time. I don't know when registration actually closed- midnight Eastern or Pacific? These events are all volunteer organized. I'm sure not everyone made the deadline.
Simon, these clips made my heart glad. Indivisible.org has done a terrific job. Redwood City CA had a great turnout. Peaceful, fairly orderly, frog suits and big blubbery mansuit in attendance. Would have needed a drone to get photos.
I will be canvassing for Prop 50 in CA today. Unfortunately it's at best a gesture; I don't think it will be effective other than to show we can fight back. Need to stop using Dominion voting machines!
When's the next protest??
The next nationwide protest is on November 4th. We need to come out in big numbers all across the country. Where we need to be focused now.
Ribbit!
Thanks for sharing this.
FWIW- I’m surrounded by GOP operatives where I am (OKC). Know them. Talk to them. They are obsessed with NJ Governor. They are convinced they will win that one, and that will “steal” the narrative on election night no matter what happens elsewhere.
So, I’m donating and offering services to Sherrill campaign. Doing everything I can there. I unfortunately cannot travel there for GOTV.
(1) From NY Times: Most independent polls show Mikie Sherrill, the Democrat, leading Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican, by five to 10 percentage points.
(2) I put 25 postcards to NJ voters in the mail Friday, another 25 will go out Saturday. Write on!
I just checked and there are just under 5000 postcard addresses unclaimed for NJ Governors race on Sincereapp platform for Activate America. Find out how to create an account on SinceApp here:
www.activateamerica.vote/postcards.
There are also opportunities to phone bank:
www.mobilize.us/?event_type=26&event_type=2&org_ids=39197
Activate America also addresses for CA Prop 50, PA Supreme Court retention elections and VA Governor and House of Delegates.
CA Prop 50 phonebanks: www.mobilize.us/?event_type=26&event_type=2&q=Prop%2050
PA Phonebanks: www.mobilize.us/?event_type=26&event_type=2&q=supreme%20court
VA phonebanks: www.mobilize.us/?event_type=26&event_type=2&q=Spanberger
OR
www.mobilize.us/?event_type=26&event_type=2&q=Delegates
Simon or Lincoln,
Can you open this up to post photos of Hop?
He/She visited Clermont County in deep, red Ohio.
From today's newsletter: Send your photos to community@hopiumchronicles.com and we will do another roundup of images from Hopium folks later today or tomorrow.
I feel like a different person today. I hope there is a pep in everyone’s step like there is for me. We have accomplished something that has never been done before - the largest one-day peaceful protest in American history. We should all be very proud of ourselves. We have lots of work to do ahead, but we should be proud of what we have already accomplished. Can’t wait to hear from Leah and Ezra, I know they will have some inspiring words for all of us.
For me here in Central New Jersey, it was inspiring to see the privileged and the working class, the “rock stars” and the regular people all out together because they care about the future of this country and of their children. I’m going to spend the day going through all the clips from everywhere around the country and stay away from the MSM trying to prognosticate. Today is a day for celebration and rest for the work ahead. Keep going!
now hold on...what do you consider central nj.....inside joke here. we always debate what is central nj; i worked in jackson as a lad and considered it south jersey; they considered it central.....some consider the parkway bridge in sayreville as the start of north jersey, actually many do, but that would surprise the people there who consider it central.....elizabeth is considered to be the start of north jersey. the great snowstorm of 2/6/2010 was illustrative; it split the state; north of monmouth county had a nuisance event, south had a blizzard of epic proportions, 2 feet or more. i drove to the camden aquarium with my kids that sunday, watching 3 inch drifts on the turnpike get bigger and bigger as we went south; i have the photos of the massive drifts in camden to show for it. a later blizzard that month did the exact opposite; south of middlesex not much, and increasing as you went north. and the last noreaster was similar; weather often does this here. anyway, we had a great turnout in union county, rahway, central nj.....
Until reconfiguration recently, Central Jersey was an actual athletics conference in state public schools. I didn't create it, merely citing evidence from a public institution: https://www.cjpwc.org/
PS - I am in the Asbury Park area, 20 miles south of the Raritan Bay. If that's not central, I don't know what is! :)
oh i know...it's a long boat ride from sayreville, but we've done it. usually don't go further south than the red church. best bet is to launch in shark river at that point. that link has the bricks and toms river in cnj! but a lot of it is spot on. another interesting tidbit; what is nyc metro area.....yes toms river and also the poconos!
www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/858246/
I have never seen as many people gathered at the rotary in Hyannis, Cape Cod, MA. It was joyous!!
I think the Boston crowd was as “small” as it was only because there were so many to choose from in Massachusetts. I could have picked from 4 within a 5-mile radius of my house. We chose Boston because I wanted to feel the enormity of the moment.
streets are really tight in boston too.....a nightmare to drive in, especially in snow.
I agree - i think that's overall true for many of the major cities who now happily have events popping up all around them for people to choose from. Same for Los Angeles downtown.
I chose Newton Centre for that reason accessibility. But a bigger crowed from 6/15 ~1500 at the intersection of Beacon and Centre Streets great vibe weather people and cause !!!!🇺🇸❤️
I was in the Boston crowd. Didn’t seem small to me. There were a lot of protests locations in MA. Also, Head of the Charles Regatta this wreaking which was competing for attention and jammed up the City’s traffic even more than usual.
Also Friends and Family Weekend for both Harvard and Boston Universities. Why they do that on HOTC weekend I’ll never know but LOTS of extra people in town
I was at the rally in Houghton, MI.
Bravo, Houghton! My cousin the organizer in Marquette pointed out there were more protests in the UP than ever before!
If only our elected representatives reflected their constituents; if only people voted with such energy.
We’re winning! A 40% increase in participants from June to October. We are winning.
Yes! The only unfortunate thing is it's because the DT Admin is getting desperate and striking out more and more often.
Agreed. Breaking things but this close-up lens (protest & its success) should reveal the "mad king" actions to more folks.
The numbers give me a lot of hope in dark times.