I think most people have concluded the majority of registered dems are voting on election day and they aren't analyzing the EV in PA much because of that.
Ryan, what is your source? I ask, because the total i saw earlier today is the same as yours, while the split is very different, and their Dem lead was almost 40,000 votes lower than what you are indicating. Here are the numbers from Joshua Smithley:
If you look at the requested ballots, we will need virtually a 100% return rate to get to 500k and we only had about an 90% return rate in 2020. My guess is that we'll get to about 450k, which is still pretty good.
"The survey shows Kamala Harris with a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters (51% – 47%). About 3% of likely voters remain undecided." MANY Gen Z have never voted previously. Does this mean they have not been considered by Tufts?
FT6 says it has added 5 million new Democrats in swing states. Still registering in NC, MI, WI, MT, NV. Mass texting tomorrow. BYOP today. https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Still time to flip 2020 Trump voters. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites. Vote vets has already flipped many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters. 3. It's up to people like you who are on social media.... when you comment you'll see what I mean. Many of the people involved are dependents, family members, friends and neighbors who are interested in the military and or national security and for whom this is news. Takes repetition and substantiation by people they trust.
Some really interesting cross tabs here. Weighted for 2020 turnout. That's good for Trump. Also, shows Trump getting 20% AAs. But shows Harris winning - yes, winning - men and Trump only winning white vote by 4%. I would take this survey with not just a grain but a pound of salt.
I know. But it is even less likely that Harris wins men by any amount and there is no way she only loses the white vote by 4%. For these reasons, the cross tabs to this poll seem outlandish to me. It's as if everything is backwards.
...even less likely that Harris wins men by any amount
Don't forget about "Dobbs Dads" (men with daughters who are against Draconian abortion bans). Also Vote Vets (www.votevets.org) and Republican voters against Trump (https://rvat.org/) have some really hard hitting ads.
From your lips to god's ears. If Harris's deficit with men ends up in the single digits she will win nationally by at least 4 pts. and it could be a lot more. Most polls have that deficit at 12% - 15% right now.
If republicans are voting for Harris at 6-8% clip, which is definitely possible if not highly likely, that balances out the men and white vote. Both demographics are pretty solid republican but a 6-8% cross vote is big change
NOTE: If Harris really is ahead by 1% amongst those who have already voted, despite Republicans having an 11-percent Ballot Edge in the Early Vote, this is earthquake-level news for Florida!
More than 3 mil Floridians register as "no party." In the Republican primary Trump got about 86%. Many ex Republicans against Trump. A LOT of Puerto Rican and Cubans are registered Republicans. Many have already voted, but yesterday even Sunset Rick Scott had to repudiate the speakers at MSG. Attacked "Latinos."
Joe Rogan is looking more and more like Uncle Fester (with a tan, albeit) from the Addams Family. Rogan looks like he actually has a tan, though, unlike trump, who is obviously wearing brown makeup.
I'll give Rogan credit for one thing: At least he asked Trump follow-up questions or indicated when Trump was making no sense. The mainstream media just moves on no matter what ridiculous thing Trump says.
To me, last night’s fever dream of a rally is proof that Trump and his team also think that he’s not going to win this election fair and square. The whole thing was all about rallying his maga lunatics and had nothing to do with reaching the last few undecided voters. Right now, his Plan A is to disrupt the election process and to somehow throw the election to the house. He even „hinted“ that this is his plan last night while talking to Mike Johnson about their „little secret“.
Good thing the Biden administration knew this all along and i really really hope they’ve been preparing accordingly. Our job now in the final days is to get out as many votes for Harris as possible and to really knock this election out of the park (+ flipping the house of course) so that every kind of interference by the GOP becomes almost impossible.
I read several weeks ago that President Biden has been preparing with the Secret Service and National Guard in case they try something. I also read on Joyce Vance's Civil Discourse last Friday (Five Questions with Voting Rights Lawyer Danielle Lang) about how we are fighting back against the other side's expensive, ridiculous, and futile lawsuits to try to take away voting rights. You have to be a paid subscriber to read this article. There's also Marc Elias and his large team at Elias Law Group around the country fighting to protect our voting rights.
The campaign has a whole battalion of lawyers on the ready. Trump's only strategy is stealing the election. He can try, but he'll get his ass handed to him. And I'm sure President Biden will go scorched earth on any insurrection attempts.
Having a battalion of lawyers is necessary, but lawyers only present arguments to courts. Courts, through judges, make decisions. And then those decisions are reviewed by higher courts, until you get to the one controlled by wing-nuts.
We are already winning very important election court cases like those in Georgia. The Georgia Supreme Court backed the two judges that ruled the three crazy repubs that made up rules on the Georgia Election Board are wrong and their new rules are totally unconstitutional. The new rules were thrown out.
To be clear: There is NO provision in the constitution to "throw the election to the House" outside of a tie in the electoral vote count. I unfortunately continue to see many people on our side, including HCR, repeating this flawed argument. Per the 12th Amendment, the winner of the Electoral College is the one with a majority of APPOINTED electors. If, for example, GA refuses to certify its electors, then the Electoral College is reduced to 522. At that point, the winner is the one with at least 262. Ironically, Harris would no longer need the blue dot in that scenario. This has already happened twice in 1864 and 1868.
Also remember on January 6, 2025, Kamala Harris will be certifying the election as Vice President and, fingers crossed, Hakeem Jeffries will be the House Speaker.
Here’s the short explanation, followed by more detailed explanation for those interested in spreading the truth:
If a state’s electors are excluded because of failure to appoint by the state or by objection sustained when ballots are counted, then those electors are excluded from the calculation of the majority needed to win. For example, if Georgia doesn’t certify its 16 electors, then the total electoral votes needed to win the presidency is reduced from 270 electors to 262 electors. The more electors that are excluded, the lower the number of electoral votes needed to win a majority.
It is possible that withholding certification of electors might prohibit a candidate from winning a majority of electoral votes, but we must recognize that the size of the “majority” needed to win decreases as electoral votes are excluded by failure to certify or objection sustained. The lower the majority needed to win, the more likely it is that a candidate will reach that decreased number—thereby avoiding a contingent election in the House.
It is state law. The counties have to certify within the allotted time frame. That was clarified and the wierd rules by the republican Georgia Election board members was thrown out. Then the state has to turn in by a certain time and the Governor will send up electors with his seal. Kemp is a republican, but he seems fair.
OK,, but if Ga., in this example, refused to certify its electors, it would be because Harris won the state. Therefore, the remaining 49 states would be lacking 16 electoral votes for Harris, advantaging Trump.
Potentially, but there's a false narrative circulating among republican circles that if a candidate can be prevented from getting to 270, the decision somehow gets made by the House and that's not the case. Let's say that Harris loses WI but wins PA, MI, NE-2 and NV. She would have 266 and would actually win the Electoral College even if GA wasn't certified.
If we flip the house which I think we are that means Hakeem Jeffries would by sworn in on January 3rd and moses is long gone! Which I will say to moses - don't let the door hit you in the butt!
Thanks so much, Simon, can’t wait to read this morning’s Hopium uplift!!! I just got back from dropping off my last batch of 400 postcards, these to PA, for a total of 980!!!! I didn’t meet my goal of 1000 because I overdid writing a few days ago and caused a severe strain, ugh! But I’m still psyched and continuing to donate to Anderson and Ruben. So very grateful to Simon and all you great peeps for the inspiration and laughter and hard work. What a phenomenal group you have created, Simon, and I am honored to be a small part of it. Thank you, thank you, thank you. 💙🇺🇸💙
Thanks so much, Grant, and that's awesome for WI!!! Great help for H/W, and Tammy Baldwin's senate race needs a little love, too. Feeling so positive about our chances all across the country!!!
In case you missed it, here is Gov Walz playing Crazy Taxi with AOC yesterday. I totally needed to see this after whatever that was at Madison Square Garden.
"There is literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it's called Puerto Rico?"
– Tony Hinchcliffe
DAMNING: The Trump campaign itself tried to distance itself from the “floating island of garbage” quotation, only to be met with comments pointing out that Hinchcliffe’s set had been vetted and uploaded to the teleprompters.
AOC and Bernie are going around the country campaigning for our side. Very grateful. Ana Navarro at the Phoenix rally on Saturday night: The garbage is coming right out of trump's mouth and we will put him in the garbage on November 5th!
Sending out my last batch of 20 vote forward letters to NC today. Partner took our youngest daughter with her to vote early today as well!
Second,
The MSG rally will go down in history as the greatest political blunder of modern times. At a point when he was maybe* peeling off support of men of color, TFG held a rally where they managed to overtly offend nearly every group they were counting on for support. Add this to the waves of Rs already having doubts, we are sure to gain. The Harris coalition will grow and his will shrink.
Together, JLo, Bad Bunny, and Marc Anthony have over 315 million followers on Instagram. This is going to hurt them bad with the Puerto Rican community. In addition it's going to make FL more competitive. If Debbie Micarsel Powell wins this will be key.
I know, right?!?!?!?! Guys like Mike Lawler, Don Bacon, Brian Fitzpatrick used to make sense and want to get stuff done. I personally believe they are the reason MAGA has any power. They, the competent ones, have normalized a fascist party. I'm positive that they know better. I specifically wrote Vote Forward letters into their districts to make them lose their seats. Such disappointments. Such cowards.
I'll be honest—I don't like polls. I really don't. But I think that the crosstabs in the "trusted" polls are showing a very interesting story, among the folks that have _ALREADY_ voted:
ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN: Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
Flipping over to TargetSmart (Tom Bonier), if I'm reading this right (and if I'm wrong, please let me know so I can delete this post), the modeled partisanship of the early vote is (this is Tom & team guessing who is voting) is about 47% D, 44% R, and 9% I. If that's true, that means that the shift to Harris is big—a significant realignment.
That's certainly how I've been reading the data. There is a huge delta between modeled partisanship and actual voting behavior, and it's all in our favor.
I have gotten the same impression from my phonebanking. I have done local and national campaigns before, but these Harris-Walz lists are some of the best lists I've had in campaigning. Anecdotal, I know, but still. And a few people in these battlegrounds are confirming my feel of what the situation looks like on the ground.
Every Harris/Walz lawn sign stolen or defaced in my neighborhood results in a robust new donation to their campaign sight. It's a pretty well-to-do California neighborhood, so right now they should be raking it in!
Jeremy, it might help if you read my analysis each day. I am removing this post for it is both ignorant and obnoxious. Thank you. Do better.
I think most people have concluded the majority of registered dems are voting on election day and they aren't analyzing the EV in PA much because of that.
Re: PENNSYLVANIA EARLY VOTE
Ryan, what is your source? I ask, because the total i saw earlier today is the same as yours, while the split is very different, and their Dem lead was almost 40,000 votes lower than what you are indicating. Here are the numbers from Joshua Smithley:
📥 1,402,907 votes cast
– 🔵 DEM: 819,112 - 70.3% returned
– 🔴 GOP: 438,017 - 65.9% returned
– 🟡 IND: 145,778 - 54.8% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 58.4% / 🔴 31.2% / 🟡 10.4%
🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+381,095
📈 Return Edge: 🔵+4.4
https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1850937162096853435#m
Well, I guess we can say NBC’s percentages are "very roughly" correct:
D: 58.4 ≈ 60
R: 31.2 ≈ 30
I: 10.4 ≈ 10
My take is that when all is said and done, PA will mirror MI and WI. They tend to be electoral birds of a feather.
If you look at the requested ballots, we will need virtually a 100% return rate to get to 500k and we only had about an 90% return rate in 2020. My guess is that we'll get to about 450k, which is still pretty good.
Not allowed to say. Simon says.
Just released: National estimates from CES pre-election interviews with over 70,000 American adults. Kamala Harris with a 4-percent lead over Trump.
National LVs (Oct. 1 - 25):
– Harris: 51%
– Trump: 47%
https://nitter.poast.org/b_schaffner/status/1850919058775941605#m
https://sites.tufts.edu/cooperativeelectionstudy/2024/10/28/ces-estimates-on-the-2024-presidential-election/
Please note the sample size of this poll – a massive 70,000!
"The survey shows Kamala Harris with a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters (51% – 47%). About 3% of likely voters remain undecided." MANY Gen Z have never voted previously. Does this mean they have not been considered by Tufts?
FT6 says it has added 5 million new Democrats in swing states. Still registering in NC, MI, WI, MT, NV. Mass texting tomorrow. BYOP today. https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Still time to flip 2020 Trump voters. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites. Vote vets has already flipped many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters. 3. It's up to people like you who are on social media.... when you comment you'll see what I mean. Many of the people involved are dependents, family members, friends and neighbors who are interested in the military and or national security and for whom this is news. Takes repetition and substantiation by people they trust.
what is FT6?
Field Team 6: Voter Registration Organization (currently running ballot cure canvasses for the campaign across all states). https://www.fieldteam6.org/voter-drive-in-a-box
Thank you. I follow politics voraciously. Never heard of this org. Grateful for the learnings.
Check them out! Their tag line is "Register Democrats. Save the World."
www.fieldteam6.org
Field Team 6, a partisan voter registration organization
Some really interesting cross tabs here. Weighted for 2020 turnout. That's good for Trump. Also, shows Trump getting 20% AAs. But shows Harris winning - yes, winning - men and Trump only winning white vote by 4%. I would take this survey with not just a grain but a pound of salt.
Trump will get under 10% of the AA vote. Period.
What is AA
African Americans
Black Americans – African Americans.
Trump ain’t getting 20% of the black vote (AA’s).
I know. But it is even less likely that Harris wins men by any amount and there is no way she only loses the white vote by 4%. For these reasons, the cross tabs to this poll seem outlandish to me. It's as if everything is backwards.
...even less likely that Harris wins men by any amount
Don't forget about "Dobbs Dads" (men with daughters who are against Draconian abortion bans). Also Vote Vets (www.votevets.org) and Republican voters against Trump (https://rvat.org/) have some really hard hitting ads.
Check out their respective YouTube channels:
https://www.youtube.com/@votevets
https://www.youtube.com/@RepublicanVotersAgainstTrump
She leads with white college grads.
From your lips to god's ears. If Harris's deficit with men ends up in the single digits she will win nationally by at least 4 pts. and it could be a lot more. Most polls have that deficit at 12% - 15% right now.
Either way it looks (potentially) good!
If republicans are voting for Harris at 6-8% clip, which is definitely possible if not highly likely, that balances out the men and white vote. Both demographics are pretty solid republican but a 6-8% cross vote is big change
Done by my former professor Brian Shaffner- a true nerd in the best way! Knows his stuff.
My cousin is professor emeritus at Tufts.
Probably the biggest sample out of any US election survey
When We Fight, We Win!
Thank You Simon!
FLORIDA: Poll indicates that Kamala Harris leads amongst voters who have already voted. (This despite 500,000 more Republicans having voted so far.)
Florida St. Pete poll:
– Trump 50-45
– Scott 49-46
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/703816-donald-trump-leads-kamala-harris-in-florida-but-not-among-those-whose-ballots-are-already-cast/
NOTE: If Harris really is ahead by 1% amongst those who have already voted, despite Republicans having an 11-percent Ballot Edge in the Early Vote, this is earthquake-level news for Florida!
How could this be? There are two key factors:
– Women voters outnumber men 54–46 according to TargetSmart
– The 4.8 million Early Voters include over 1 million Independents.
https://www.freshtake.vote/2024G/
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=voteShare&count_prefix=final_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22gender%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=FL&view_type=state
More than 3 mil Floridians register as "no party." In the Republican primary Trump got about 86%. Many ex Republicans against Trump. A LOT of Puerto Rican and Cubans are registered Republicans. Many have already voted, but yesterday even Sunset Rick Scott had to repudiate the speakers at MSG. Attacked "Latinos."
New GOTV text bank for Mucarsel Poweel
Sign up here
https://www.mobilize.us/debbieforflorida/event/731519/
See you there.
Thank you so much for posting this! I texted for her during the primaries and was hoping to do some more.
Large crowds outside MSG protesting yesterday.
Joe Rogan is looking more and more like Uncle Fester (with a tan, albeit) from the Addams Family. Rogan looks like he actually has a tan, though, unlike trump, who is obviously wearing brown makeup.
Interesting in that they seem to prefer white skin. And yet….
At the moment, Trump is a candidate of color: Vomit Orange!
I liked Rogan better when he was just that goofy character actor on Newsradio and the host of Fear Factor.
I'll give Rogan credit for one thing: At least he asked Trump follow-up questions or indicated when Trump was making no sense. The mainstream media just moves on no matter what ridiculous thing Trump says.
To me, last night’s fever dream of a rally is proof that Trump and his team also think that he’s not going to win this election fair and square. The whole thing was all about rallying his maga lunatics and had nothing to do with reaching the last few undecided voters. Right now, his Plan A is to disrupt the election process and to somehow throw the election to the house. He even „hinted“ that this is his plan last night while talking to Mike Johnson about their „little secret“.
Good thing the Biden administration knew this all along and i really really hope they’ve been preparing accordingly. Our job now in the final days is to get out as many votes for Harris as possible and to really knock this election out of the park (+ flipping the house of course) so that every kind of interference by the GOP becomes almost impossible.
I read several weeks ago that President Biden has been preparing with the Secret Service and National Guard in case they try something. I also read on Joyce Vance's Civil Discourse last Friday (Five Questions with Voting Rights Lawyer Danielle Lang) about how we are fighting back against the other side's expensive, ridiculous, and futile lawsuits to try to take away voting rights. You have to be a paid subscriber to read this article. There's also Marc Elias and his large team at Elias Law Group around the country fighting to protect our voting rights.
The campaign has a whole battalion of lawyers on the ready. Trump's only strategy is stealing the election. He can try, but he'll get his ass handed to him. And I'm sure President Biden will go scorched earth on any insurrection attempts.
Having a battalion of lawyers is necessary, but lawyers only present arguments to courts. Courts, through judges, make decisions. And then those decisions are reviewed by higher courts, until you get to the one controlled by wing-nuts.
Yes, but here's hoping those judges have enough common sense to not go against the will of the people.
We are already winning very important election court cases like those in Georgia. The Georgia Supreme Court backed the two judges that ruled the three crazy repubs that made up rules on the Georgia Election Board are wrong and their new rules are totally unconstitutional. The new rules were thrown out.
Oh good!
To be clear: There is NO provision in the constitution to "throw the election to the House" outside of a tie in the electoral vote count. I unfortunately continue to see many people on our side, including HCR, repeating this flawed argument. Per the 12th Amendment, the winner of the Electoral College is the one with a majority of APPOINTED electors. If, for example, GA refuses to certify its electors, then the Electoral College is reduced to 522. At that point, the winner is the one with at least 262. Ironically, Harris would no longer need the blue dot in that scenario. This has already happened twice in 1864 and 1868.
Thanks for chiming in with this. After reading HCR this morning I was getting a little anxious. This helps.
Thanks for your clarification, i did not know that.
Also remember on January 6, 2025, Kamala Harris will be certifying the election as Vice President and, fingers crossed, Hakeem Jeffries will be the House Speaker.
Craig is correct about the 12th Amendment and this information should help everyone Worry Less.
Back to my postcarding. DMWL Team Hopium!
Robert Hubbell has posted several times about this false scenario:
https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/kamala-harris-turns-it-up-to-11
Here’s the short explanation, followed by more detailed explanation for those interested in spreading the truth:
If a state’s electors are excluded because of failure to appoint by the state or by objection sustained when ballots are counted, then those electors are excluded from the calculation of the majority needed to win. For example, if Georgia doesn’t certify its 16 electors, then the total electoral votes needed to win the presidency is reduced from 270 electors to 262 electors. The more electors that are excluded, the lower the number of electoral votes needed to win a majority.
It is possible that withholding certification of electors might prohibit a candidate from winning a majority of electoral votes, but we must recognize that the size of the “majority” needed to win decreases as electoral votes are excluded by failure to certify or objection sustained. The lower the majority needed to win, the more likely it is that a candidate will reach that decreased number—thereby avoiding a contingent election in the House.
Thanks for the link. The 12th Amendment is pretty clear, but it's good that the ECRA further clarifies it.
It is state law. The counties have to certify within the allotted time frame. That was clarified and the wierd rules by the republican Georgia Election board members was thrown out. Then the state has to turn in by a certain time and the Governor will send up electors with his seal. Kemp is a republican, but he seems fair.
OK,, but if Ga., in this example, refused to certify its electors, it would be because Harris won the state. Therefore, the remaining 49 states would be lacking 16 electoral votes for Harris, advantaging Trump.
Potentially, but there's a false narrative circulating among republican circles that if a candidate can be prevented from getting to 270, the decision somehow gets made by the House and that's not the case. Let's say that Harris loses WI but wins PA, MI, NE-2 and NV. She would have 266 and would actually win the Electoral College even if GA wasn't certified.
If we flip the house which I think we are that means Hakeem Jeffries would by sworn in on January 3rd and moses is long gone! Which I will say to moses - don't let the door hit you in the butt!
Thanks so much, Simon, can’t wait to read this morning’s Hopium uplift!!! I just got back from dropping off my last batch of 400 postcards, these to PA, for a total of 980!!!! I didn’t meet my goal of 1000 because I overdid writing a few days ago and caused a severe strain, ugh! But I’m still psyched and continuing to donate to Anderson and Ruben. So very grateful to Simon and all you great peeps for the inspiration and laughter and hard work. What a phenomenal group you have created, Simon, and I am honored to be a small part of it. Thank you, thank you, thank you. 💙🇺🇸💙
You rock, Donna. I hit 450 for WI
Thanks so much, Grant, and that's awesome for WI!!! Great help for H/W, and Tammy Baldwin's senate race needs a little love, too. Feeling so positive about our chances all across the country!!!
In case you missed it, here is Gov Walz playing Crazy Taxi with AOC yesterday. I totally needed to see this after whatever that was at Madison Square Garden.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n9Gqa-0Cp0
"There is literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it's called Puerto Rico?"
– Tony Hinchcliffe
DAMNING: The Trump campaign itself tried to distance itself from the “floating island of garbage” quotation, only to be met with comments pointing out that Hinchcliffe’s set had been vetted and uploaded to the teleprompters.
The watermelon "joke" was sad and disgusting. The whole rally was such a stain!
AOC and Bernie are going around the country campaigning for our side. Very grateful. Ana Navarro at the Phoenix rally on Saturday night: The garbage is coming right out of trump's mouth and we will put him in the garbage on November 5th!
Sending out my last batch of 20 vote forward letters to NC today. Partner took our youngest daughter with her to vote early today as well!
Second,
The MSG rally will go down in history as the greatest political blunder of modern times. At a point when he was maybe* peeling off support of men of color, TFG held a rally where they managed to overtly offend nearly every group they were counting on for support. Add this to the waves of Rs already having doubts, we are sure to gain. The Harris coalition will grow and his will shrink.
Together, JLo, Bad Bunny, and Marc Anthony have over 315 million followers on Instagram. This is going to hurt them bad with the Puerto Rican community. In addition it's going to make FL more competitive. If Debbie Micarsel Powell wins this will be key.
Also, I want to watch video of a back-pedaling Mike Lawler on repeat. Go, Mondaire, go!!!!!! I just looked it up. NY 17 is one hour away from MSG.
I once had some respect for him not anymore.
I know, right?!?!?!?! Guys like Mike Lawler, Don Bacon, Brian Fitzpatrick used to make sense and want to get stuff done. I personally believe they are the reason MAGA has any power. They, the competent ones, have normalized a fascist party. I'm positive that they know better. I specifically wrote Vote Forward letters into their districts to make them lose their seats. Such disappointments. Such cowards.
From Liz Cheney to Bad Bunny -- how's that for a broad coalition?
It's fucking amazing & unprecedented - that's how it is !
Amazing!
I'll be honest—I don't like polls. I really don't. But I think that the crosstabs in the "trusted" polls are showing a very interesting story, among the folks that have _ALREADY_ voted:
ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN: Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
Flipping over to TargetSmart (Tom Bonier), if I'm reading this right (and if I'm wrong, please let me know so I can delete this post), the modeled partisanship of the early vote is (this is Tom & team guessing who is voting) is about 47% D, 44% R, and 9% I. If that's true, that means that the shift to Harris is big—a significant realignment.
Pink Tsunami ––> Blue Wave!
That's certainly how I've been reading the data. There is a huge delta between modeled partisanship and actual voting behavior, and it's all in our favor.
Can anyone give me the links to all this? I want to use it for an article I am writing.
I love it!
Could we actually "get to 55"? (An aspiration from Simon) I'm not ruling it out...
I'm a Hopium newbie, and I cannot find these polls. Can you link us?
Several hours of phone banking this morning. I believe that we will win.
I have gotten the same impression from my phonebanking. I have done local and national campaigns before, but these Harris-Walz lists are some of the best lists I've had in campaigning. Anecdotal, I know, but still. And a few people in these battlegrounds are confirming my feel of what the situation looks like on the ground.
Every Harris/Walz lawn sign stolen or defaced in my neighborhood results in a robust new donation to their campaign sight. It's a pretty well-to-do California neighborhood, so right now they should be raking it in!
Keep it coming Nancy!