A Good Week

We Talk Biden's Strong Launch In A New Deep State Radio Pod w/Rothkopf and Corn

Happy Saturday all. This was a good week for our politics. The most dangerous propagandist in American politics, Tucker Carlson, lost his Fox platform. Fox released a new poll that all sorts of bad news for Rs on issues that matter. Most importantly, Joe Biden’s campaign got off to a very good start.

A note to our paid subscribers - technical issues got to us yesterday, and my political briefing while it happened live at noon was not recorded. So as a replacement, I am sending along a link to a lively podcast recorded late yesterday with David Rothkopf and David Corn where we covered much of the same ground as my private political briefing. Sorry about that all - but this pod is really good and worth the time.

The New Fox Poll and the GOP’s Distance from the American People - while Fox may be full of problems, historically its polling and election units have been among the best in the business. Their new poll out this week got a lot of play, and these two graphics were seen widely in GOP offices and households across the US:

It’s a core premise of my current understanding of US politics that the GOP’s escalating extremism is taking them further and further away from regular voters, creating an opportunity for us to expand our coalition, “get to 55” and seize rhetorical, demographic and geographical real estate they have abandoned. A measure of how far they are for the electorate right now is the number of issues where their positions are below 40%, and in some cases even in the teens and twenties. Below 40% is a dangerous place to be in politics, and this Navigator chart below shows how low they are right now on issue after issue. They are living in the 20s, 30s, low 40s - not where any party wants to be - and have no major issue where they are connecting with a majority of voters.

As you will see the issue where Rs are performing best now is on the economy. It has been and remains their greatest strength. It’s why I’ve called on everyone to help us improve our standing on the economy this year and work to take this important issue away from them.

Reviewing all this data also shows how dangerous Speaker McCarthy’s pushing America into default may be for him and his party. If his recklessness drives down the Rs standing on the economy, and we are successful in tying his economic strategy to broader GOP extremism, Republicans may lose the only issue that may be able to get them out of the ditch they are in now; and they will move even further away from the voters they need to be successful next year. It’s why at a strategy level McCarthy’s default gambit is not just economically reckless, it is in my mind deeply reckless politically and electorally, and yet another example of how extremism and extremists have overtaken the party of Lincoln and Reagan.

This NPR story is a useful reminder that in 1995 Clinton used Gingrich’s government shutdowns to bludgeon the Rs, helping put him my old boss in the position to win in 1996 by 8 points. I continue to believe that 2023 is all about winning the big economic argument with the GOP. If we can do it, and launch a national youth voter registration drive to make it more likely we can get to 55, we will be taking two essential steps this year that will make it more likely we will have the election we want to have next year.

Keep working hard all - Simon