I know the feeling…I teach online now so I have a closet of stuff I don’t wear! Feels good to dress up once in a while. Judging by the pics, you felt good, too.
Thanks for the report. It’s inspiring, and I’m going to get involved at the county level in MI this summer. I hope it’s inspiring to all the rest of the community as well.
Love the message about coming together after primaries. We have a very loud purity testing group constantly attacking the party online. It was extremely loud this week attacking Ken Martin after his Pod Save interview. All of us can contribute to talking to those people and helping them better understand how they can be a part of politics and help shape the party instead of engaging in the “us vs them” stuff.
It’s going to be very contentious here in the Michigan Senate race, as well as with a 3 way race for governor. I’m going to do my part for my state and fight for our country.
I read a Thom Hartmann piece that was ... not helpful in my opinion. He trashed "the establishment". I have my issues with "the establishment" as well as with some on the far left, but we all need to come together to defeat MAGA and the Project 25 group. You know who else I have issues with? Lots of people! The rude lady at the grocery store who cut in front of me, the guy who honked his horn at me bc I didn't try to get the last little bit of yellow light and speed through the intersection, my son who refuses to clean up his room and so on. It's called life. I agree. We need less "us vs them" stuff. We can debate, agree to disagree and then we must unite.
Yeah, agree, but there does need to be some sort of limit. For example, some people will refuse to unite because they don’t want to have a discussion. They want to bully you into taking their position and will attack you as an outsider if you don’t.
Example ways people do this:
Medicare for all is the only solution to healthcare, and if you only want a public option you’re a traitor to the working class.
You’re a genocide supporting ghoul if you don’t support breaking all ties with Israel.
Agree MrsCQ! Anger is a substance that's hard to use in moderation, and like any substance we abuse, it makes you less productive and effective, the hangover's a b, and no matter how much of it you use, it always leaves you feeling worse in the end. There’s been some great research on this that shows anger with people we know is often constructive; anger with those we don't is pretty much always nothing but corrosive (gift link)
Agree. Thank you for the link! Great Headline - I will definitely read it later. I have to finish Jon Stewart's interview with Platner first (long interview). Appreciate it.
"Anger is a substance that's hard to use in moderation, and like any substance we abuse, it makes you less productive and effective, the hangover's a b, and no matter how much of it you use, it always leaves you feeling worse in the end."
What a GREAT statement, Tom. It's easy to get addicted to anger; I've struggled with this, and it's taken its toll. Politics these days triggers the hell out of me, so it's so hard to know how to navigate this terrain n a healthy way. I'll post this truism somewhere I can see it to remind myself to be very careful not to feed the beast. Maybe treat it like another form of AA...Anger Anonymous.
Yes, and it’s important to note that anger is what seems to be driving the far left and right in the USA. It takes people beyond ideology and it’s an emotional force that drives compromise out of the discussion, which opens people to illiberal strongman type solutions when they don’t get their way. It opens people to culty expectations that a savior will rise and lead everyone to utopia.
One way to blunt the effect is to have a government that’s responsive to the people, but we need to address it directly in order to make sure these types of people don’t act in ways that make more reasonable candidates lose to lunatic extremists.
The interview with Ken Martin and Jon Favreau was a good example of how the mainstream leadership is failing at communicating with angry people. I don’t think Martin did anything wrong other than make a vague promise that’s being perceived as broken, but it’s a huge mistake to get yourself into that position and to not understand the interview was likely to be hostile.
I can relate. Dressed up for the first time in a while recently for my older daughter's graduation photo shoot and literally had to blow the dust off the top of the ties on the tie rack. I like the "no tie but suit and great shoes" option you went with.
I don't know anything about men's fashion but I recently learned that wearing brown shoes with a blue suit is considered very fashion forward. Mind you, I don't know anything about women's fashion either. I'm the gal in muck boots :)
Wow. It just goes to show you that *everything* in fashion is cyclical. I don't know about you, but for most of my life (until whenever this change occurred) pairing brown with blue was a faux pas 101.
Mainer here who lived through the nightmare and embarrassment of LePage. I think Mainers are not interested in a 78 year old who is a washed up, racist mini Trumper who turned our state into a toxic dump for 8 years. We rejected him in 2022 and we will reject him again. Grateful we have ranked choice voting.
If I am wrong, please come visit me curled up in a fetal position on the couch.
Seconded. I don’t worry about working class politics but I do worry about populist incompetence. I feel like Platner has the potential to thread that needle. I hope I’m right!
One thing Platner says that I think he’s 100% right on is that too few of our politicians have a solid philosophical and historical grounding. If we fix that our politics will be very different.
Any candidate that speaks of philosophy and history is one I feel will be honest in evaluating their skill set and make an effort to learn what they need to know to do the task. The incompetence arises from those who pride themselves on knowing nothing.
Well said! Democracy and Western enlightenment thinking is ultimately based on correcting errors. If someone is willing to learn and exercise honest humility while having a strong base of knowledge, IMO they have the highest potential.
Our current leadership is the polar opposite of that. They are all incapable of introspection or error correction, because they have outsourced their source of confidence to their cult leader, who is infallible in their minds. If he can’t make a mistake, all they need to do is follow him and everything is always solved! No thinking or foundational principles required…just give up your own agency and receive the joy of being right 100% of the time.
We have a Veteran (Ray Bilger)running for Glenn Thompson’s PA 15 seat. I believe that the experience as a military member, usually an officer training gives these men and women a deep understanding of history and political philosophical structures. This is a ruby red district and he is directly traveling and talking to farmers and rural voters. He’s got a plan and he’s bringing a bipartisan message we haven’t heard in a long time.
He is running on his solid understanding of history but had never heard of the death camps nor the SS unit that ran them in 20 years of having his tattoo.
"never heard of the death camps"? Where's that coming from?
I feel like I have pretty strong non-historian knowledge of WWII history from college courses, reading, documentaries, etc, and I didn't recognize the tattoo as a totenkopf. I know all this but didn't put it together with the image. I dunno what to tell you other than I'm an anecdotal example of this reasoning being flawed. I also wasn't in the Marines and I wasn't supposedly cleared by DoD screeners multiple times. He may in fact be a liar, but I really don't think this type of "he must have known" reasoning is enough to conclude that without a doubt. I'm open to learning more if there's stuff I'm missing.
Also, if I were a Maine voter it wouldn't stop me from voting for him against Collins, who we know is an unabashed Trump collaborator who does nothing to stop the insanity.
Thanks for the tip. I just listened to the John Stewart and Platner interview. Platner talks his values, a good strong progressive for fundamental change. I’m for it.
I will look up the interview and watch it. I really liked him at first. Then, when the story broke about his tattoo and not having it removed until recently or still had it - he was not direct about when he had it removed, I was left really disappointed. Then, when the story broke about things he wrote online, I was disgusted. Hopefully, he is more forthright, takes ownership and stops blaming the establishment or anyone else and explain how he has changed and why.
As someone who thinks Schumer should step down, there are people ... voters who like Nancy Pelosi and the "establishment" and are not the biggest fans of Bernie. We have a big tent as the saying goes. Platner needs to lead and prove he is the person to coalesce around so Susan Collins can be defeated. She is no slouch and for some reason, people keep re-electing her. Just my opinion.
Agree. It's a long interview and I haven't gotten all the way through it, but I hope Stewart asks him about the tatoo, and especially what he said online about sexual assault, which concerns me (and not in a Susan Collins way) a lot more than the tatoo, b/c to me he's clearly not a fascist, he got that tattoo in his 20s, getting one that size removed is a pretty painful apology, and some people, especially young people, don't understand there's some imagery you don't "take back" no matter how cool you think it looks (eg are Kiss and all their fans fascists because their logo includes clear SS siegrunes?)
I agree. I have watched 30 minutes of the interview. So far, no mention of the tattoo and his other postings. I also want to know when he got the tattoo removed.
No mention of the tattoo or his past statements. Stewart made a passing comment deriding MSM for harping on it, then changed the subject. Wish he'd addressed it but maybe thought it'd been addressed enough before and wanted to get to the heart of his ideas. IDK.
Yeah, I wish he'd addressed it more directly as well. It sounded to me like Platner was willing to say more about it than Stewart was willing to ask about it. He said it was wrong, and stupid, he said it was a reflection of his state of mind at the time, but then said that was no excuse. I'm about to share (in response to today's Hopium) a post I made on Blue Amp in response to Joe Walsh ripping Platner and saying there's no tent big enough for the two of them, and I want you to know Walsh's critique did not include what he said about women and Blacks, so if you happen to read my post, I'm not defending that. He did claim Platner lied about the tatoo (without elaborating), but his main claims were that Platner is antisemitic (the tattoo, being interviewed on antisemitic talk shows) and “inauthentic.” Ironically, given that I spent a good portion of the last week watching The Sorrow And The Pity and Shoah (which I had only seen pieces of before), this really ticked me off.
It's a Substack podcast network co-founded by Biden adman Cliff Schecter & David Schuster. There are a bunch of other people involved. Joe Walsh co-hosts a weekly show on the network called Tequila Times
No mention of when he had the Tattoo removed or why it took so long. No mention of specific comments. More along the lines of "past comments" as if they were way in the past and nothing really. Jon Stewart wouldn't stop talking. He kept asserting Platner's positions and Platner would agree. There was quite a bit of Dem Party criticism. To be honest, some of it fair, but little in way of how Platner was going to get people to help him get all his ideas implemented.
Platner and Jon Stewart made Platner out to be the viictim bc he was attacked for past posts. That doesn't sit well with me.
I will say Platner is pro union, knows New Deal history and is for Universal Healthcare.
Overall, meh and I wish Jon Stewart didn't come across as someone who likes the sound of his own voice.
Thanks Madam Geoffrin--Watching, and thinking, damn, do we have great candidates this year, or what? People like Graham, James Talarico, Rebecca Cooke here in Wisconsin, and so many others are saying things that have needed to be said in American politics for DECADES. One of the things I love about Graham is that he's as steeped in history as Talarico is in religion, and both of these critical elements in any society are actually ON OUR SIDE.
Small example. I can't tell you how many times I've read some corporate media toady intone that we can't do anything about the Supreme Court because FDR and court-packing, and I find myself having to once again correct yet another lying sack of you know what.
A lot of people would shy away from using FDR and the courts as an example of anything because of the number of times they've heard some corporate shill tell that story as a cautionary tale for our side, but Graham goes right there, doesn't even *acknowledge* the fable told by the oligarchs, and cuts right to the chase, which is that FDR won, bigly. Which is brilliant b/c what are they going to say? They could say "actually FDR tried court-packing and failed," but if they do, people will say, oh, so Platner's wrong, the Court *didn't* start finding all the New Deal programs they were about to strike down constitutional because of FDR's court-packing threat?" (Crickets)
And the bigger point I think he's making with that story is so important, too. You have to ask yourself why the Court was willing to take such a radical stance on Callais in an election year with both houses up for grabs. One reason is obvious and everyone knows it--to help keep the GOP in power. The other, which Graham is raising with this story and throughout, is that they clearly considered it a risk-free move, because they think the Dems are either too timid or too bought-off to exact any retribution against them no matter how big we win.
Graham probably would say it's because they're too bought-off; Stewart would probably say it's because they're too timid. I think they're both right, and that the best way to cut that Gordian knot is to start using the Net to change governance as radically as it could change campaigning, by turning congresspeople into policy managers instead of policy makers, with communities of ordinary citizens in charge of coming up with the policies (ie what the Greeks actually meant by democracy--they thought elections would just be bought by the rich).
This would decisively break the grip of the wealthy on power and do so in a way that would make policy better, more legitimate, and more credible (which would eliminate the reason Stewart believes the Dems are timid about taking money from the rich). This isn't a hobby horse believe I've had for a long time--it's inspired by Graham's dead-on grasp and portrayal of the broader sweep of history.
Watched it because I saw that post...awesome interview. Am very impressed with Platner, even though I had a hard time with his past statements. BTW, how can the fascist party have anything to say about him, given how heinous their leader has been his entire life? I think Mainers are too smart to fall for that hypocrisy.
I think quite a few people have an issue with Platner blaming the Establishment or the MSM for writing about his past comments. Those past comments are pretty bad. I can understand mistakes of youth, etc. Absolutely. But he doesn't seem to be sorry about it. Rather, he seems sorry to be called out on them. If die hard Dems like myself and my husband feel this way, it's a problem. But it's fixable. Hopefully, he is sincerely sorry and has honestly changed. Platner's team needs to get out of the he is ahead any 30 points bubble and start thinking about the general. Collins always seems to win. I don't get it but it's a fact.
This was a while ago, but when those posts first came out, I watched/read several interviews with him (he was featured everywhere), and he did seem genuinely sorry and chagrined (IMO), and same with the tattoo...and was very open about it. But I wasn't paying too much attention after because I figured he wouldn't make it past the primary, or even drop out before then, because it was a constant barrage of coverage (understandably). That he's done so well despite all that says something.
Of course once the barrage comes back, he'll have to address it again. But at this point, perhaps he's less inclined to engage on those issues and wants to focus on his ideas, what he plans to do if he wins, and why Collins needs to go. But he also needs to do whatever it takes to get people he maligned/offended/enraged on his side.
Believe me, I wish we had a candidate without those issues, one who's been tested and knows how to win. But maybe being an insurgent during a wave/anti-establishment election will work for him. I just hope Maine recognizes that our democracy is at stake and that we have to win this seat.
I am no strategist but I honestly think it would go a long way if he stopped acting as if this is old news, be less defensive, just outright own it and explain why it took him so long to get rid of (cover) the tattoo. Totally agree with you he has to get people he maligned/offended/enraged on his side. Also, I would tell him to say, this is not on the Establishment. This is on me and I have changed, thankfully. He could even use it as a way for people who voted for Collins (😡) to join his campaign.
Yes, I have lots of ideas about how candidates should behave and what they should do to garner more votes...but nobody's asking me!!
I just now watched this interview, where he addresses the tattoo, specifically, and his comments for only a few seconds...Hasan keeps cutting him off, doesn't let him elaborate, and Jon Stewart did the same. I feel like he's fine talking about it and does try to elaborate (in his terse sort of way), but interviewers like Hasan and Stewart clearly like and support him, so have already decided not to hold those things against him. I'd like his elaboration because I want to feel 100% sure he can convince others that he's the guy he says he is, and the one I want him to be.
Thank you for the link. Nobody asks me either what ideas I have for a campaign. 😂.
Thanks for the link. I will definitely watch. Hopefully, once the general starts and it's not too late, Platner will be allowed to elaborate and lose the terseness) 🤞🏼
Every argument with a fellow Democrat is wasted energy right now and doing Republican's work for them.
That is why I love the positive message of Hopium so much and try to spread it to all those who might still need a bit of encouragement to stop with the Dem bashing!!!
I think we have to deliberately engage with peoples’ concerns. Doesn’t mean it has to waste energy being emotional and hostile! There are good, productive arguments to be had that will change minds, IMO.
Yes, I would emphasize working out our differences respectfully instead of undercutting each other, but avoiding all argument seems unlikely.
My field team in our local Democratic group is remarkably cooperative and kind, but we definitely argue and have drama. That isn’t surprising with a bunch of worried but highly motivated volunteers with different skills and experience levels.
Yes. We will know more, soon. It's why we need to bear down and win these 12 races we are backing. If we win these 12 I don't think it will matter how many seats they wrangle before November post-Callais.
Simon, Kamala Harris put out a great video informing supporters and furthermore, the party that “we knew this was coming” but that we are ready for the fight! In a recent interview, she stressed the party has to be ruthless! She even stated she didn’t care if there were reporters in the room and that they could quote her on that. Encouraging to see how she, Newsom (who was excellent on Bill Maher the other night), Mark Kelly, Elissa Slotkin (who was excellent in her grilling of Hegseth), Pete B, Shapiro, AOC, Spanberger, Raskin and others are really taking in ‘the fight’ and setting a new standard alongside your leadership here at Hopium, all of course while Marc Elias is bulldozing away through the courts!
Speaking of Elias, do you know offhand he or anyone will be suing the Governor of Louisiana for his horrific actions trying to cancel/delay primaries midway after ballots have already been cast? Surely, that can’t have much legs in conjunction with the text of the supreme court’s ruling?!? 🙏🙏🙏
Marc Elias' firm has filed suit to stop the ridiculous declaration of "emergency" in LA that is attempting to put the already-in-progress election on hold. His is one of three suits already filed--as of yesterday.
Totally agree. Every state house we can win will dilute the negative effects of Callais. The Democratic party and all of us need to work around the entire calendar year to win state house and senate seats so that we can gerrymander them Blue. If we get a trifecta at the federal level then we try to pass legislation creating independent commissions in every state to control redistricting maps.
Messaging, messaging, messaging! We have an advantage given the sour taste in the electorate’ mouths towards Trump. However, we CANNOT make it ALL Anti-Trump right?!! We say it here all the time in that we have to promote what we’re for as much as what we’re against. It’s why Ossoff is likely to win, it’s why Platner (even though controversial at times) pulled ahead. It’s why both Spanberger and Sherrill won big! We will be able to fight back through the system especially with Elias on our side. It’ll be even more so however, about voter turnout and messaging. I don’t believe we’re all ‘whining our way through’ of course but our party has a tendency to be ‘seen’ that way on occasion. Even with the upper hand and momentum, we could still fall short IF our messaging isn’t succinct! Unfortunately, it’s what cost us in 2024 (even though Harris’ messaging alone was on point in contrast with the party around her). I have faith in our capabilities but I can’t stress that overarching point enough. Even against the cheating odds thrown at us, it’s OURS to lose!!! Let’s pull the voters in and overwhelm all the way through Nov 🙏🙌🤞✌️.
Simon, maybe this is just AI slop, but it feels important to try and quantify the worst-case scenario of what just happened...
Your thoughts?
As of May 2, 2026, here is the shareable bottom line:
2026 bottom line
The redistricting war probably helps Republicans more than Democrats in 2026. Current public tracking shows GOP-led maps potentially adding about 13 Republican-favorable seats, while Democratic counter-maps add about 10 Democratic-favorable seats — a baseline net GOP advantage of about +3 seats.
After the new Supreme Court ruling weakening Voting Rights Act protections, Southern GOP states may be able to redraw more Black-majority or Democratic-leaning districts. Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and others are now moving or considering moves that could add roughly 3 to 5 more Republican seats.
So the practical 2026 worst-case math is:
Scenario Estimated net effect
Current redistricting war only GOP +3
Add post-ruling Southern redraws GOP +6 to +8
If Virginia’s Democratic map stays blocked GOP +10 to +12
That last case matters because Virginia’s Democratic map could shift four GOP-held seats toward Democrats, but it is currently blocked in court.
2028 bottom line
2028 could be worse than 2026 because more states will have time to redraw. The immediate 2026 effect may be limited by election deadlines, lawsuits, and timing. But by 2028, the Supreme Court ruling could let Republican-led Southern states dismantle more majority-minority or Democratic-leaning districts. The Washington Post reported that the ruling could affect up to 19 congressional districts and potentially give Republicans a dozen or more additional House seats by 2028.
So the clean summary is:
2026: likely GOP net gain from redistricting of about +6 to +8 seats, or +10 to +12 if Virginia’s Democratic counter-map fails.
2028: risk grows into the low double digits or worse, with estimates suggesting Republicans could gain a dozen or more seats if red states fully exploit the ruling and Democratic states cannot fully offset it.
And the key interpretation:
This does not end elections, but it can make House control much less responsive to voters. A net GOP +10 redistricting advantage is not just ten seats — it functions like a 20-seat swing in the House margin, because Democrats lose a seat while Republicans gain one.
There are some insane maps Dem controlled states could draw, too. I think it’s way too early to tell what will happen to this level of detail because political will affects all of this as we saw in Indiana, and losses due to dummymanders seem likely.
The timing is unfortunate (well deliberate I imagine) for 2026, in that it does give these Southern states that have late primaries a chance to juice the maps and not much Dems can do in response, other than legal challenges it seems.
We have to hope (as seems likely on past rulings, but you never know) that the Virginia map is given the green light and then just work as hard as possible to win as many voters as possible everywhere!!
There is no guarantee that the new maps definitely work out for the GOP either if the wave is big enough.
Focusing on worst case scenarios doesn't seem very Hopium. Yes, there are substantial threats that can't be ignored. There is also an idea called "dummy-mandering". Lines are drawn based on 2024 results and Trump is minus 23 now, not plus 3 in favorables. To gerrymander you have to spread your strength to gain those new districts and that leaves you vulnerable to losing seats you expect to win based on false assumptions.
Predicting gerrymandering results is not productive use of energy. Too many variables to know what is really going to happen. Figuring ways to push forward to WIN, not analyze the chances of LOSING, is a better use of our energy to bring it home. It's a form of doomerism, and Simon insists we don't do that here.
Like Simon indicated in his reply, I think the doomer/worrier type comments reveal a style of thinking that focuses too much on extrapolating the results of an event without anticipating potential responses from opposing parties.
Extrapolating like that is useful in that it can tell us what to prioritize in terms of severity and urgency. It should never be treated as predictive of outcomes. People treat these things too much as simple math problems instead of an ongoing and complex strategic conflict over resource and power allocation (politics!).
... and it doesn't account for the fact that the Moron-in-chief shoots himself in the foot every chance he gets. Fighting with the Pope? Catholics love that. Calling for the firing of Jimmy Kimmel again? Disney already learned how that one turned out.
To be honest, it wouldn't shock me if his favorables dropped below 20%. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't be shocked.
Six months ago Simon said the floor was about 40%. My response... just wait. My point is not to promote that I was a better prognosticator than Simon on this one thing. My point is gerrymandering doesn't matter that much if the Moron-in chief keeps moron-ing. And as Simon has pointed out, this ruling is the impetus to get on the ground everywhere in the places Democrats have conceded for decades. Turning a negative to a positive. Opportunities abound. The sleeping Giant is awakening. All Aboard! This train is bound for VICTORY!
"gerrymandering doesn't matter that much if the Moron-in chief keeps moron-ing" ... and if gas tops $6/gallon nationwide, which looks to be an absolute certainty.
I think gerrymandering definitely does matter, but may not significantly affect the outcome of the number of seats gained and the ability to gain an effective majority.
What you’re effectively saying is always true in a broader context, if I understand it correctly. Gerrymandering matters a lot when political camps are relatively static. In wave years with lots of dissatisfaction, it matters a lot less.
No one knows where we will be two years from now. Trump's mid-decade redistricting didn't work out as they hoped. Yes there is more we can redistrict and will over the next few years which are not adequately accounted for here. What we do know as I wrote today, as I talked about in Maine yesterday, and in my talk this week is that our maps are changing, our mental maps, our geographic and demographic targets simply must change now. We have to think differently about our coalition, how we get to a majority. I think there is as much opportunity as there is peril in this process. I also think this rethink, which is long overdue, has the possibility of making us stronger not weaker. I encourage you to listen to my talk this week as a starting place.
I think your model is too static, and does not adequately account for what we might do.
#1. If state legislature elections break the way state specials have, Dems could have, per the Greg Sargent TNR piece Simon shared yesterday (link re-shared below) the ability to gerrymander Republicans out of at least as many seats as the GOP gains via Callais.
#2. If, when they rub their hands together while carving up their states, the Repos aren't factoring in Dem overperformance since 2024, or are counting on anything close to the level of Hispanic, young voter, or independent support Trump got in the last election, their gerrymanders could backfire badly, like Victor Orban's did, and give us a 2026 win that's actually a lot bigger than anyone was expecting--Peter Magyar's was so big he can rewrite the Hungarian constitution, and that's what we need, not just a win, but a huge one, not just to make the result too big to steal, but minimize Trump’s veto power (as GOP careerists emerge from the rubble ready to talk turkey), and send a badly needed message to the world. Already the gerry that kicked this whole thing off, TX, looks like it will be a dummymander (the Repos trail in 3 of the 5 seats they created, while the margin for error for lot of other folks in their delegation was reduced to create them).
PS Where I absolutely agree with you is that if the parties really go to the mat on this, the House will be less responsive to voters on *both* sides, and a lot more people will end up concluding they have no representation at all than already believe this (thanks to the wealth of the average House member and the power of the oligarchy) This is becoming increasingly dangerous to democracy.
The good news is that there's a good chance a lot of these shenanigans will backfire bigly, particularly for the party who started the race to the bottom, the party that really has been in the forefront of it (as a minority party would be) all along, no matter how many times the GOP & meda point fingers at IL or MD. When the redistricting wars started, there were 108 seats in blue states drawn up by independent bodies vs only 8 in the reds (17 if you consider AZ red--I consider MI blue because their commission came out of a referendum Dems supported and the GOP opposed). The media needs to gtfooh with their bothsiderism on this.
Go Maine and Platner! Watched his interview from the 29th with John Stewart. He is SO impressive, so what the party and country need! And no one from the DNC has contacted him, ever. Terrific news he'll be the candidate. We need him in the Senate.
Mainer watching closely. He did say in a presser after our governor ended her campaign that he was finally contacted by the DSCC. Then as of yesterday, Schumer had called him to offer support. Graham said great, but also made it clear his campaign is "ours" and he will continue to run it his way with his team. He is bold and confident now. So many of us are so excited about him. The more you see the more you love.
Thanks for the update. Such great news. He definitely comes across as his own independent-minded person who will stick to his guns. If he wins, his Senate colleagues will not (I hope) be able to bully him off his (our) principles. Now, if the Dem. party will just do what he and others have said is paramount and build an actionable plan for changing the way things get done and implemented going forward.
Simon, thank you for the report from Maine. I imagine your brand of hard-work-and-hopium was exactly what was needed.
I'll never forgive Susan Collins for her SCOTUS votes. As Madeline Albright said, "There's a special place in hell for women who don't help other women." I hope Platner can beat her. I hope he will convince me that he supports women's rights.
Catherine, I am a Mainer. I started watching him in September and was very cautious. When the op research hit the airwaves in October, many of us thought that was it, but he survived. I kept researching, watching, reading, talking to people. He kept building momentum. I went to 2 more events. One was February 8. He had 8-10 women's groups and used that night to let them highlight there work and help build community. He did not ask for campaign donations or pressure to volunteer. It was a really great night, seeing all these women groups being lifted up. I left confident in him and have not looked back. Two weeks ago I went to an event with Graham and Elizabeth Warren. It was electric. Over 1,000 people truly pumped.
Graham's wife is a great woman. His community loves him. Many of us supporting him are feminists, SA survivors, social justice advocates etc. We trust him. I have worked for 3 cycles trying to get Collins out. I think this is a year we can do this. Her MAGA connection is out in the open now. She is one of them. We will make sure Maine voters know this.
I’m with you. I was at our small Mayday rally, and I was aghast when a woman driver opened the passenger side window to lean over her young daughter to yell,”I Love Trump!” What kind of memory will that child take away from that?
Taking a day off to check out some live music here at the Jersey Shore. I did not spend yesterday on activism, was unable to take off from work. What are some reports back from yesterday? I saw big rallies in the major metro areas. What did Hopium folks do?
Maine is amazing, thanks for the update. And that John Stewart interview w Platner was pretty impressive--they went deep on FDR and I'm here for it!
Most of the school districts surrounding Raleigh had to cancel school because so many teachers were calling in. It's no surprise, because our per pupil funding and our teacher pay are now scraping the bottom of the barrel. And yet the legislature last year gave $500 million to rich people so they could send their kids to private school (75% of those receiving funds earn more than $125,000 per year and 87% already sent their kids to private school). People are pissed! May Day in NC was more about the NC General Assembly than Trump as far as I could tell.
Maine is one of the states that Field Team 6 is targeting to register new Dem/Independent voters. Many who are eligible to vote have never been asked. This is a good time to ask. Unengaged people can be activated now, especially with a candidate like Platner. And FT6 is a cost-effective way to do that. I’m a volunteer and donor and I’d urge others to join me. Fieldteam6.org.
Thanks so much from a Mainer. We need all the help we can get. Hundreds of millions in dark money are headed our way to crucify him and build up the fake moderate sweetie image for Collins. She honestly is the devil in disguise. Think of the Portrait of Dorian Grey. Again, thanks for the help! Every senate seat effects every person in this country.
Former longtime Boston resident here. Spent many happy times in Maine, as did my husband whose family spent summers there long ago. Mt. Desert. Heaven. Fingers crossed that Platner’s lead will hold. He’s drawing big crowds.
In-person voter-registration events are also opportunities to educate and activate folks who’ve felt ignored. Our crew writes postcards to hard-to-reach people there.
Good luck to them. The only TV ad that made any difference in the 2024 cycle was the Trump transgender ad, and it allegedly moved people who saw it only 2 points in his direction. I say allegedly b/c in order to run a test like that with any validity, you have to test it in a vacuum with everything else held constant, which has nothing to do with the real world and is only true in time for about as long as the ad runs for the test subjects for the first time.
Just based on the people from Maine I know (admittedly a small sample) , it sounds like an approach where the Platner attacks will backfire bigly, voters, whether left, right, or radical center, aren't looking for a moderate sweetie, and the ads against Collins write themselves: video of her saying "I'm concerned" captioned "Susan Collins on X', black screen, white text, 'Collins voted for X", rinse and repeat for 30 seconds, then do another one with 2-3 different more issues and votes. As long as you all stay together as a community the way we do in Hopium, and reach out to bring others into it, I bet Collins goes down hard this time.
Thanks so much for your thoughts Tom, especially the ad effectiveness. Each time I see MAGA etc attacking him, I get more and more entrenched in my support. Most everyone I know understands our mission but I have come across a few who are Never Platners. I am ignoring them at this point as they appear in the minority.
We all know what he meant to say. But those attack ads should take him verbatim – and perhaps show a bunch of ancient 85-year-old Medicare recipients being forced to work.
I'm a NH resident, and I do wish we had a firebrand running, but I like Chris, even though I think he's too moderate/passive. I hope he has a strong team with good messaging and can tie the Sununus to maga. Also, this is a change election; trotting out a former Sununu from ages ago doesn't inspire confidence.
Wow on the Platner video. People think Susan Collins and the GOP are going to tear *that* apart? Whatever they're smoking, I don't want any. Are there more skeletons in his closet? Maybe. Might he be a terrible debater? Could be. Did needing a whole mansion made up of nothing but walk-in closets to store all his skeletons stop Donald Trump from getting elected twice? Did getting his a** kicked in every debate (except the last one with Biden, by TKO only), and none worse than the beatdown Kamala dealt, knock him out?
And we'd have to move this election to a parallel, photonegative universe to convince anyone in Maine that Susan Collins is strong and this guy is weak. Or that her heading the Appropriations Committee means a damn thing against what she's voted for. People in Maine may be resistant to change, but Trump has repeatedly poked the black bears up there, and they are seriously po'ed.
What was once disqualifying (and may still seem so to some of us). That just ain't the game anymore!!
Plus you occasionally get these rather large personalities (like Trump unfortunately), that just have the 'x factor', whatever that is and that can overcome a lot.
Self report time - I went to a MayDay Strong demonstration in Redwood City. The speakers were Congressman Kevin Mullin, State Senator Josh Becker (who had gotten arrested in a labor protests at San Francisco Airport earlier that day), San Mateo Co. BOS President Noelia Corzo, Supervisor Lisa Gauthier. RWC Mayor Elmer Martinez, SSF City Council Member James Coleman (representing Working Families), a great show of support from all levels of government. They said all the right things appropriate for the day. I saw many of my usual protest friends, and took my self-assigned role as “counter-protester” with my tally clicker and counted/estimated ~400 people. Lots of enthusiastic honks, I noted only one “Trump, Trump, Trump” shoutout from a passing car (there probability were more, but far outnumbered by honks and shouts of support). My spouse and I went to a local family owned restaurant afterwards. Now onto the CA primary…..
I just got my ballot in the mail today and then researched everything and then voted and then drove to a drop box nearby and popped that baby in. Feels good.
Deeply concerned the GOP neg campaigning will bury Platner in videos and soundbites of his own past comments. He has a underlying history that is ripe for attack distortions that will play well with the far right and Republican community ethos of rural Maine. Platner may have waterfront recognition but backwoods acceptance is deeply questionable where Collins is complicity queen funding goddess.
I share your concerns. But it also seems clear that if attacked he will not curl up in a ball or stay in a defensive crouch. Seems like he might be able to attack and control the tempo of the campaign.
Honestly, the Governor and her allies attacked him hard. The R aligned media that has continued to build the darling image of Collins made sure they were reporting ringside. Most of Maine is aware of his baggage. He addressed it head on, explained, apologized and we have moved on. Outside groups have no idea how hated Collins is by so many of us. They also think libs won't tolerate a guy with Graham's issues. They are wrong. We adore him, those of us who have met him, researched him and done the work to vet him ourselves. His community loves him. He is brilliant. I think we have got this.
Obviously if we fail again, there are probably tens of thousands, many hundreds of thousands of us who will be absolutely devastated.
It's been brought to attention by astute observers that Platner could have actually been snatched up by the far right: His message, AND his background (warts and all) are as purely populist as any of Trump's past winning messages.
That is pretty insulting to the people of Maine, many of whom have spent a great deal of time getting to know him. People from all walks of life, including this feminist social worker with a history of trauma, are all in. He is a really good human being.
That suit looks damn good on you, Simon!
In my new Hopium era don't wear em much any more!
I know the feeling…I teach online now so I have a closet of stuff I don’t wear! Feels good to dress up once in a while. Judging by the pics, you felt good, too.
Thanks for the report. It’s inspiring, and I’m going to get involved at the county level in MI this summer. I hope it’s inspiring to all the rest of the community as well.
Love the message about coming together after primaries. We have a very loud purity testing group constantly attacking the party online. It was extremely loud this week attacking Ken Martin after his Pod Save interview. All of us can contribute to talking to those people and helping them better understand how they can be a part of politics and help shape the party instead of engaging in the “us vs them” stuff.
It’s going to be very contentious here in the Michigan Senate race, as well as with a 3 way race for governor. I’m going to do my part for my state and fight for our country.
Let’s go, everyone!
I read a Thom Hartmann piece that was ... not helpful in my opinion. He trashed "the establishment". I have my issues with "the establishment" as well as with some on the far left, but we all need to come together to defeat MAGA and the Project 25 group. You know who else I have issues with? Lots of people! The rude lady at the grocery store who cut in front of me, the guy who honked his horn at me bc I didn't try to get the last little bit of yellow light and speed through the intersection, my son who refuses to clean up his room and so on. It's called life. I agree. We need less "us vs them" stuff. We can debate, agree to disagree and then we must unite.
Yeah, agree, but there does need to be some sort of limit. For example, some people will refuse to unite because they don’t want to have a discussion. They want to bully you into taking their position and will attack you as an outsider if you don’t.
Example ways people do this:
Medicare for all is the only solution to healthcare, and if you only want a public option you’re a traitor to the working class.
You’re a genocide supporting ghoul if you don’t support breaking all ties with Israel.
I agree with you. It's beyond frustrating.
Agree MrsCQ! Anger is a substance that's hard to use in moderation, and like any substance we abuse, it makes you less productive and effective, the hangover's a b, and no matter how much of it you use, it always leaves you feeling worse in the end. There’s been some great research on this that shows anger with people we know is often constructive; anger with those we don't is pretty much always nothing but corrosive (gift link)
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/01/charles-duhigg-american-anger/576424/?gift=FgeEACUw4iJoER4ZiZvsnE2zDZh0mgs8d8su5eRx1QI&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Agree. Thank you for the link! Great Headline - I will definitely read it later. I have to finish Jon Stewart's interview with Platner first (long interview). Appreciate it.
"Anger is a substance that's hard to use in moderation, and like any substance we abuse, it makes you less productive and effective, the hangover's a b, and no matter how much of it you use, it always leaves you feeling worse in the end."
What a GREAT statement, Tom. It's easy to get addicted to anger; I've struggled with this, and it's taken its toll. Politics these days triggers the hell out of me, so it's so hard to know how to navigate this terrain n a healthy way. I'll post this truism somewhere I can see it to remind myself to be very careful not to feed the beast. Maybe treat it like another form of AA...Anger Anonymous.
Thanks so much for the link.
Yes, and it’s important to note that anger is what seems to be driving the far left and right in the USA. It takes people beyond ideology and it’s an emotional force that drives compromise out of the discussion, which opens people to illiberal strongman type solutions when they don’t get their way. It opens people to culty expectations that a savior will rise and lead everyone to utopia.
One way to blunt the effect is to have a government that’s responsive to the people, but we need to address it directly in order to make sure these types of people don’t act in ways that make more reasonable candidates lose to lunatic extremists.
The interview with Ken Martin and Jon Favreau was a good example of how the mainstream leadership is failing at communicating with angry people. I don’t think Martin did anything wrong other than make a vague promise that’s being perceived as broken, but it’s a huge mistake to get yourself into that position and to not understand the interview was likely to be hostile.
I can relate. Dressed up for the first time in a while recently for my older daughter's graduation photo shoot and literally had to blow the dust off the top of the ties on the tie rack. I like the "no tie but suit and great shoes" option you went with.
I don't know anything about men's fashion but I recently learned that wearing brown shoes with a blue suit is considered very fashion forward. Mind you, I don't know anything about women's fashion either. I'm the gal in muck boots :)
Haha I used to work in the trades so I’m normally in similar clothing. Blue with brown shoes looks great on some people. Simple as!
Wow. It just goes to show you that *everything* in fashion is cyclical. I don't know about you, but for most of my life (until whenever this change occurred) pairing brown with blue was a faux pas 101.
I am very concerned for Susan Collins. Not!
PS. My fellow Mainers, please, for God’s sake, do not elect Paul “Flintstone” LePage as Jared Golden’s replacement in ME-02!
Well, I’ll just have to look into that, Arctic!
see above; i've actually met the dude. told him i was a democrat. he shrugged.
Mainer here who lived through the nightmare and embarrassment of LePage. I think Mainers are not interested in a 78 year old who is a washed up, racist mini Trumper who turned our state into a toxic dump for 8 years. We rejected him in 2022 and we will reject him again. Grateful we have ranked choice voting.
If I am wrong, please come visit me curled up in a fetal position on the couch.
Reiterating a post from yesterday: watch the Jon Stewart interview with Graham Platner.
Thanks - that was a good one! Also, Jen Psaki's interview from Thu night was good, took a different angle.
Seconded. I don’t worry about working class politics but I do worry about populist incompetence. I feel like Platner has the potential to thread that needle. I hope I’m right!
One thing Platner says that I think he’s 100% right on is that too few of our politicians have a solid philosophical and historical grounding. If we fix that our politics will be very different.
Any candidate that speaks of philosophy and history is one I feel will be honest in evaluating their skill set and make an effort to learn what they need to know to do the task. The incompetence arises from those who pride themselves on knowing nothing.
Well said! Democracy and Western enlightenment thinking is ultimately based on correcting errors. If someone is willing to learn and exercise honest humility while having a strong base of knowledge, IMO they have the highest potential.
Our current leadership is the polar opposite of that. They are all incapable of introspection or error correction, because they have outsourced their source of confidence to their cult leader, who is infallible in their minds. If he can’t make a mistake, all they need to do is follow him and everything is always solved! No thinking or foundational principles required…just give up your own agency and receive the joy of being right 100% of the time.
We have a Veteran (Ray Bilger)running for Glenn Thompson’s PA 15 seat. I believe that the experience as a military member, usually an officer training gives these men and women a deep understanding of history and political philosophical structures. This is a ruby red district and he is directly traveling and talking to farmers and rural voters. He’s got a plan and he’s bringing a bipartisan message we haven’t heard in a long time.
He is running on his solid understanding of history but had never heard of the death camps nor the SS unit that ran them in 20 years of having his tattoo.
"never heard of the death camps"? Where's that coming from?
I feel like I have pretty strong non-historian knowledge of WWII history from college courses, reading, documentaries, etc, and I didn't recognize the tattoo as a totenkopf. I know all this but didn't put it together with the image. I dunno what to tell you other than I'm an anecdotal example of this reasoning being flawed. I also wasn't in the Marines and I wasn't supposedly cleared by DoD screeners multiple times. He may in fact be a liar, but I really don't think this type of "he must have known" reasoning is enough to conclude that without a doubt. I'm open to learning more if there's stuff I'm missing.
Also, if I were a Maine voter it wouldn't stop me from voting for him against Collins, who we know is an unabashed Trump collaborator who does nothing to stop the insanity.
Thanks for the tip. I just listened to the John Stewart and Platner interview. Platner talks his values, a good strong progressive for fundamental change. I’m for it.
I will look up the interview and watch it. I really liked him at first. Then, when the story broke about his tattoo and not having it removed until recently or still had it - he was not direct about when he had it removed, I was left really disappointed. Then, when the story broke about things he wrote online, I was disgusted. Hopefully, he is more forthright, takes ownership and stops blaming the establishment or anyone else and explain how he has changed and why.
As someone who thinks Schumer should step down, there are people ... voters who like Nancy Pelosi and the "establishment" and are not the biggest fans of Bernie. We have a big tent as the saying goes. Platner needs to lead and prove he is the person to coalesce around so Susan Collins can be defeated. She is no slouch and for some reason, people keep re-electing her. Just my opinion.
Agree. It's a long interview and I haven't gotten all the way through it, but I hope Stewart asks him about the tatoo, and especially what he said online about sexual assault, which concerns me (and not in a Susan Collins way) a lot more than the tatoo, b/c to me he's clearly not a fascist, he got that tattoo in his 20s, getting one that size removed is a pretty painful apology, and some people, especially young people, don't understand there's some imagery you don't "take back" no matter how cool you think it looks (eg are Kiss and all their fans fascists because their logo includes clear SS siegrunes?)
I agree. I have watched 30 minutes of the interview. So far, no mention of the tattoo and his other postings. I also want to know when he got the tattoo removed.
No mention of the tattoo or his past statements. Stewart made a passing comment deriding MSM for harping on it, then changed the subject. Wish he'd addressed it but maybe thought it'd been addressed enough before and wanted to get to the heart of his ideas. IDK.
Yeah, I wish he'd addressed it more directly as well. It sounded to me like Platner was willing to say more about it than Stewart was willing to ask about it. He said it was wrong, and stupid, he said it was a reflection of his state of mind at the time, but then said that was no excuse. I'm about to share (in response to today's Hopium) a post I made on Blue Amp in response to Joe Walsh ripping Platner and saying there's no tent big enough for the two of them, and I want you to know Walsh's critique did not include what he said about women and Blacks, so if you happen to read my post, I'm not defending that. He did claim Platner lied about the tatoo (without elaborating), but his main claims were that Platner is antisemitic (the tattoo, being interviewed on antisemitic talk shows) and “inauthentic.” Ironically, given that I spent a good portion of the last week watching The Sorrow And The Pity and Shoah (which I had only seen pieces of before), this really ticked me off.
I don't now what Blue Amp is :(
It's a Substack podcast network co-founded by Biden adman Cliff Schecter & David Schuster. There are a bunch of other people involved. Joe Walsh co-hosts a weekly show on the network called Tequila Times
No mention of when he had the Tattoo removed or why it took so long. No mention of specific comments. More along the lines of "past comments" as if they were way in the past and nothing really. Jon Stewart wouldn't stop talking. He kept asserting Platner's positions and Platner would agree. There was quite a bit of Dem Party criticism. To be honest, some of it fair, but little in way of how Platner was going to get people to help him get all his ideas implemented.
Platner and Jon Stewart made Platner out to be the viictim bc he was attacked for past posts. That doesn't sit well with me.
I will say Platner is pro union, knows New Deal history and is for Universal Healthcare.
Overall, meh and I wish Jon Stewart didn't come across as someone who likes the sound of his own voice.
Thanks Madam Geoffrin--Watching, and thinking, damn, do we have great candidates this year, or what? People like Graham, James Talarico, Rebecca Cooke here in Wisconsin, and so many others are saying things that have needed to be said in American politics for DECADES. One of the things I love about Graham is that he's as steeped in history as Talarico is in religion, and both of these critical elements in any society are actually ON OUR SIDE.
Small example. I can't tell you how many times I've read some corporate media toady intone that we can't do anything about the Supreme Court because FDR and court-packing, and I find myself having to once again correct yet another lying sack of you know what.
A lot of people would shy away from using FDR and the courts as an example of anything because of the number of times they've heard some corporate shill tell that story as a cautionary tale for our side, but Graham goes right there, doesn't even *acknowledge* the fable told by the oligarchs, and cuts right to the chase, which is that FDR won, bigly. Which is brilliant b/c what are they going to say? They could say "actually FDR tried court-packing and failed," but if they do, people will say, oh, so Platner's wrong, the Court *didn't* start finding all the New Deal programs they were about to strike down constitutional because of FDR's court-packing threat?" (Crickets)
And the bigger point I think he's making with that story is so important, too. You have to ask yourself why the Court was willing to take such a radical stance on Callais in an election year with both houses up for grabs. One reason is obvious and everyone knows it--to help keep the GOP in power. The other, which Graham is raising with this story and throughout, is that they clearly considered it a risk-free move, because they think the Dems are either too timid or too bought-off to exact any retribution against them no matter how big we win.
Graham probably would say it's because they're too bought-off; Stewart would probably say it's because they're too timid. I think they're both right, and that the best way to cut that Gordian knot is to start using the Net to change governance as radically as it could change campaigning, by turning congresspeople into policy managers instead of policy makers, with communities of ordinary citizens in charge of coming up with the policies (ie what the Greeks actually meant by democracy--they thought elections would just be bought by the rich).
This would decisively break the grip of the wealthy on power and do so in a way that would make policy better, more legitimate, and more credible (which would eliminate the reason Stewart believes the Dems are timid about taking money from the rich). This isn't a hobby horse believe I've had for a long time--it's inspired by Graham's dead-on grasp and portrayal of the broader sweep of history.
Watched it because I saw that post...awesome interview. Am very impressed with Platner, even though I had a hard time with his past statements. BTW, how can the fascist party have anything to say about him, given how heinous their leader has been his entire life? I think Mainers are too smart to fall for that hypocrisy.
I think quite a few people have an issue with Platner blaming the Establishment or the MSM for writing about his past comments. Those past comments are pretty bad. I can understand mistakes of youth, etc. Absolutely. But he doesn't seem to be sorry about it. Rather, he seems sorry to be called out on them. If die hard Dems like myself and my husband feel this way, it's a problem. But it's fixable. Hopefully, he is sincerely sorry and has honestly changed. Platner's team needs to get out of the he is ahead any 30 points bubble and start thinking about the general. Collins always seems to win. I don't get it but it's a fact.
This was a while ago, but when those posts first came out, I watched/read several interviews with him (he was featured everywhere), and he did seem genuinely sorry and chagrined (IMO), and same with the tattoo...and was very open about it. But I wasn't paying too much attention after because I figured he wouldn't make it past the primary, or even drop out before then, because it was a constant barrage of coverage (understandably). That he's done so well despite all that says something.
Of course once the barrage comes back, he'll have to address it again. But at this point, perhaps he's less inclined to engage on those issues and wants to focus on his ideas, what he plans to do if he wins, and why Collins needs to go. But he also needs to do whatever it takes to get people he maligned/offended/enraged on his side.
Believe me, I wish we had a candidate without those issues, one who's been tested and knows how to win. But maybe being an insurgent during a wave/anti-establishment election will work for him. I just hope Maine recognizes that our democracy is at stake and that we have to win this seat.
Agree with you.
I am no strategist but I honestly think it would go a long way if he stopped acting as if this is old news, be less defensive, just outright own it and explain why it took him so long to get rid of (cover) the tattoo. Totally agree with you he has to get people he maligned/offended/enraged on his side. Also, I would tell him to say, this is not on the Establishment. This is on me and I have changed, thankfully. He could even use it as a way for people who voted for Collins (😡) to join his campaign.
Yes, I have lots of ideas about how candidates should behave and what they should do to garner more votes...but nobody's asking me!!
I just now watched this interview, where he addresses the tattoo, specifically, and his comments for only a few seconds...Hasan keeps cutting him off, doesn't let him elaborate, and Jon Stewart did the same. I feel like he's fine talking about it and does try to elaborate (in his terse sort of way), but interviewers like Hasan and Stewart clearly like and support him, so have already decided not to hold those things against him. I'd like his elaboration because I want to feel 100% sure he can convince others that he's the guy he says he is, and the one I want him to be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nka00V50MI8
Thank you for the link. Nobody asks me either what ideas I have for a campaign. 😂.
Thanks for the link. I will definitely watch. Hopefully, once the general starts and it's not too late, Platner will be allowed to elaborate and lose the terseness) 🤞🏼
Thank you Simon for all you do. You are amazing!🎊
I am very interested in the senate and governors races. I am concerned about the Maryland and Florida governors races. Do you have any info?
Let's go get Felon 34 and his gang! Never give up!
Florida is going to be very tough, obviously.
But in a wave year and with a great candidate running against a terrible candidate, then anything is possible.
Not to mention a completely rejuvenated state party, thanks in part to Hopium, that was in shambles.
Every argument with a fellow Democrat is wasted energy right now and doing Republican's work for them.
That is why I love the positive message of Hopium so much and try to spread it to all those who might still need a bit of encouragement to stop with the Dem bashing!!!
I think we have to deliberately engage with peoples’ concerns. Doesn’t mean it has to waste energy being emotional and hostile! There are good, productive arguments to be had that will change minds, IMO.
Yes, I would emphasize working out our differences respectfully instead of undercutting each other, but avoiding all argument seems unlikely.
My field team in our local Democratic group is remarkably cooperative and kind, but we definitely argue and have drama. That isn’t surprising with a bunch of worried but highly motivated volunteers with different skills and experience levels.
Yes, Simon, you look very snazzy!
Do you think Callais will affect any of our House races?
Yes. We will know more, soon. It's why we need to bear down and win these 12 races we are backing. If we win these 12 I don't think it will matter how many seats they wrangle before November post-Callais.
Simon, Kamala Harris put out a great video informing supporters and furthermore, the party that “we knew this was coming” but that we are ready for the fight! In a recent interview, she stressed the party has to be ruthless! She even stated she didn’t care if there were reporters in the room and that they could quote her on that. Encouraging to see how she, Newsom (who was excellent on Bill Maher the other night), Mark Kelly, Elissa Slotkin (who was excellent in her grilling of Hegseth), Pete B, Shapiro, AOC, Spanberger, Raskin and others are really taking in ‘the fight’ and setting a new standard alongside your leadership here at Hopium, all of course while Marc Elias is bulldozing away through the courts!
Speaking of Elias, do you know offhand he or anyone will be suing the Governor of Louisiana for his horrific actions trying to cancel/delay primaries midway after ballots have already been cast? Surely, that can’t have much legs in conjunction with the text of the supreme court’s ruling?!? 🙏🙏🙏
I was wondering the same thing myself.
Marc Elias' firm has filed suit to stop the ridiculous declaration of "emergency" in LA that is attempting to put the already-in-progress election on hold. His is one of three suits already filed--as of yesterday.
Elias has already filed suit in Lousiana
Seems to me the Callais Decision has made state legislative races even more critical!
Absolutely 100%.
GOP were a bit ahead of Dems on figuring this out unfortunately, but the fightback is on for sure!!!
Totally agree. Every state house we can win will dilute the negative effects of Callais. The Democratic party and all of us need to work around the entire calendar year to win state house and senate seats so that we can gerrymander them Blue. If we get a trifecta at the federal level then we try to pass legislation creating independent commissions in every state to control redistricting maps.
Messaging, messaging, messaging! We have an advantage given the sour taste in the electorate’ mouths towards Trump. However, we CANNOT make it ALL Anti-Trump right?!! We say it here all the time in that we have to promote what we’re for as much as what we’re against. It’s why Ossoff is likely to win, it’s why Platner (even though controversial at times) pulled ahead. It’s why both Spanberger and Sherrill won big! We will be able to fight back through the system especially with Elias on our side. It’ll be even more so however, about voter turnout and messaging. I don’t believe we’re all ‘whining our way through’ of course but our party has a tendency to be ‘seen’ that way on occasion. Even with the upper hand and momentum, we could still fall short IF our messaging isn’t succinct! Unfortunately, it’s what cost us in 2024 (even though Harris’ messaging alone was on point in contrast with the party around her). I have faith in our capabilities but I can’t stress that overarching point enough. Even against the cheating odds thrown at us, it’s OURS to lose!!! Let’s pull the voters in and overwhelm all the way through Nov 🙏🙌🤞✌️.
TY for the update Simon! As you say, "let's get to work" and win the field this November!
Simon, maybe this is just AI slop, but it feels important to try and quantify the worst-case scenario of what just happened...
Your thoughts?
As of May 2, 2026, here is the shareable bottom line:
2026 bottom line
The redistricting war probably helps Republicans more than Democrats in 2026. Current public tracking shows GOP-led maps potentially adding about 13 Republican-favorable seats, while Democratic counter-maps add about 10 Democratic-favorable seats — a baseline net GOP advantage of about +3 seats.
After the new Supreme Court ruling weakening Voting Rights Act protections, Southern GOP states may be able to redraw more Black-majority or Democratic-leaning districts. Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and others are now moving or considering moves that could add roughly 3 to 5 more Republican seats.
So the practical 2026 worst-case math is:
Scenario Estimated net effect
Current redistricting war only GOP +3
Add post-ruling Southern redraws GOP +6 to +8
If Virginia’s Democratic map stays blocked GOP +10 to +12
That last case matters because Virginia’s Democratic map could shift four GOP-held seats toward Democrats, but it is currently blocked in court.
2028 bottom line
2028 could be worse than 2026 because more states will have time to redraw. The immediate 2026 effect may be limited by election deadlines, lawsuits, and timing. But by 2028, the Supreme Court ruling could let Republican-led Southern states dismantle more majority-minority or Democratic-leaning districts. The Washington Post reported that the ruling could affect up to 19 congressional districts and potentially give Republicans a dozen or more additional House seats by 2028.
So the clean summary is:
2026: likely GOP net gain from redistricting of about +6 to +8 seats, or +10 to +12 if Virginia’s Democratic counter-map fails.
2028: risk grows into the low double digits or worse, with estimates suggesting Republicans could gain a dozen or more seats if red states fully exploit the ruling and Democratic states cannot fully offset it.
And the key interpretation:
This does not end elections, but it can make House control much less responsive to voters. A net GOP +10 redistricting advantage is not just ten seats — it functions like a 20-seat swing in the House margin, because Democrats lose a seat while Republicans gain one.
There are some insane maps Dem controlled states could draw, too. I think it’s way too early to tell what will happen to this level of detail because political will affects all of this as we saw in Indiana, and losses due to dummymanders seem likely.
I think we all knew this was coming for 2028.
The timing is unfortunate (well deliberate I imagine) for 2026, in that it does give these Southern states that have late primaries a chance to juice the maps and not much Dems can do in response, other than legal challenges it seems.
We have to hope (as seems likely on past rulings, but you never know) that the Virginia map is given the green light and then just work as hard as possible to win as many voters as possible everywhere!!
There is no guarantee that the new maps definitely work out for the GOP either if the wave is big enough.
Focusing on worst case scenarios doesn't seem very Hopium. Yes, there are substantial threats that can't be ignored. There is also an idea called "dummy-mandering". Lines are drawn based on 2024 results and Trump is minus 23 now, not plus 3 in favorables. To gerrymander you have to spread your strength to gain those new districts and that leaves you vulnerable to losing seats you expect to win based on false assumptions.
Predicting gerrymandering results is not productive use of energy. Too many variables to know what is really going to happen. Figuring ways to push forward to WIN, not analyze the chances of LOSING, is a better use of our energy to bring it home. It's a form of doomerism, and Simon insists we don't do that here.
Like Simon indicated in his reply, I think the doomer/worrier type comments reveal a style of thinking that focuses too much on extrapolating the results of an event without anticipating potential responses from opposing parties.
Extrapolating like that is useful in that it can tell us what to prioritize in terms of severity and urgency. It should never be treated as predictive of outcomes. People treat these things too much as simple math problems instead of an ongoing and complex strategic conflict over resource and power allocation (politics!).
... and it doesn't account for the fact that the Moron-in-chief shoots himself in the foot every chance he gets. Fighting with the Pope? Catholics love that. Calling for the firing of Jimmy Kimmel again? Disney already learned how that one turned out.
To be honest, it wouldn't shock me if his favorables dropped below 20%. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't be shocked.
Six months ago Simon said the floor was about 40%. My response... just wait. My point is not to promote that I was a better prognosticator than Simon on this one thing. My point is gerrymandering doesn't matter that much if the Moron-in chief keeps moron-ing. And as Simon has pointed out, this ruling is the impetus to get on the ground everywhere in the places Democrats have conceded for decades. Turning a negative to a positive. Opportunities abound. The sleeping Giant is awakening. All Aboard! This train is bound for VICTORY!
Keep pushing.
"gerrymandering doesn't matter that much if the Moron-in chief keeps moron-ing" ... and if gas tops $6/gallon nationwide, which looks to be an absolute certainty.
I think gerrymandering definitely does matter, but may not significantly affect the outcome of the number of seats gained and the ability to gain an effective majority.
What you’re effectively saying is always true in a broader context, if I understand it correctly. Gerrymandering matters a lot when political camps are relatively static. In wave years with lots of dissatisfaction, it matters a lot less.
100%. But the wave year is only predicited, not manifested yet so...
Keep pushing all the way to November
I would encourage you to read the two articles about what comes next in my post yesterday - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/gas-surges-40-cents-this-week-extremist
No one knows where we will be two years from now. Trump's mid-decade redistricting didn't work out as they hoped. Yes there is more we can redistrict and will over the next few years which are not adequately accounted for here. What we do know as I wrote today, as I talked about in Maine yesterday, and in my talk this week is that our maps are changing, our mental maps, our geographic and demographic targets simply must change now. We have to think differently about our coalition, how we get to a majority. I think there is as much opportunity as there is peril in this process. I also think this rethink, which is long overdue, has the possibility of making us stronger not weaker. I encourage you to listen to my talk this week as a starting place.
I think your model is too static, and does not adequately account for what we might do.
Two things to consider.
#1. If state legislature elections break the way state specials have, Dems could have, per the Greg Sargent TNR piece Simon shared yesterday (link re-shared below) the ability to gerrymander Republicans out of at least as many seats as the GOP gains via Callais.
https://newrepublic.com/article/209830/trump-supreme-court-gerrymandering-voting-rights
#2. If, when they rub their hands together while carving up their states, the Repos aren't factoring in Dem overperformance since 2024, or are counting on anything close to the level of Hispanic, young voter, or independent support Trump got in the last election, their gerrymanders could backfire badly, like Victor Orban's did, and give us a 2026 win that's actually a lot bigger than anyone was expecting--Peter Magyar's was so big he can rewrite the Hungarian constitution, and that's what we need, not just a win, but a huge one, not just to make the result too big to steal, but minimize Trump’s veto power (as GOP careerists emerge from the rubble ready to talk turkey), and send a badly needed message to the world. Already the gerry that kicked this whole thing off, TX, looks like it will be a dummymander (the Repos trail in 3 of the 5 seats they created, while the margin for error for lot of other folks in their delegation was reduced to create them).
PS Where I absolutely agree with you is that if the parties really go to the mat on this, the House will be less responsive to voters on *both* sides, and a lot more people will end up concluding they have no representation at all than already believe this (thanks to the wealth of the average House member and the power of the oligarchy) This is becoming increasingly dangerous to democracy.
The good news is that there's a good chance a lot of these shenanigans will backfire bigly, particularly for the party who started the race to the bottom, the party that really has been in the forefront of it (as a minority party would be) all along, no matter how many times the GOP & meda point fingers at IL or MD. When the redistricting wars started, there were 108 seats in blue states drawn up by independent bodies vs only 8 in the reds (17 if you consider AZ red--I consider MI blue because their commission came out of a referendum Dems supported and the GOP opposed). The media needs to gtfooh with their bothsiderism on this.
"The media needs to gtfooh with their bothsiderism on this."
... and many, many other things.
Go Maine and Platner! Watched his interview from the 29th with John Stewart. He is SO impressive, so what the party and country need! And no one from the DNC has contacted him, ever. Terrific news he'll be the candidate. We need him in the Senate.
Mainer watching closely. He did say in a presser after our governor ended her campaign that he was finally contacted by the DSCC. Then as of yesterday, Schumer had called him to offer support. Graham said great, but also made it clear his campaign is "ours" and he will continue to run it his way with his team. He is bold and confident now. So many of us are so excited about him. The more you see the more you love.
Thanks for the update. Such great news. He definitely comes across as his own independent-minded person who will stick to his guns. If he wins, his Senate colleagues will not (I hope) be able to bully him off his (our) principles. Now, if the Dem. party will just do what he and others have said is paramount and build an actionable plan for changing the way things get done and implemented going forward.
I realize that Platner's campaign is yours, that all he has for me is rage and threats of harm.
I am sorry that rape apology and 20 years of Nazi tattoo are ok with you.
I genuinely do not understand this.
Simon, thank you for the report from Maine. I imagine your brand of hard-work-and-hopium was exactly what was needed.
I'll never forgive Susan Collins for her SCOTUS votes. As Madeline Albright said, "There's a special place in hell for women who don't help other women." I hope Platner can beat her. I hope he will convince me that he supports women's rights.
I'm writing postcards to NC voters today.
Catherine, I am a Mainer. I started watching him in September and was very cautious. When the op research hit the airwaves in October, many of us thought that was it, but he survived. I kept researching, watching, reading, talking to people. He kept building momentum. I went to 2 more events. One was February 8. He had 8-10 women's groups and used that night to let them highlight there work and help build community. He did not ask for campaign donations or pressure to volunteer. It was a really great night, seeing all these women groups being lifted up. I left confident in him and have not looked back. Two weeks ago I went to an event with Graham and Elizabeth Warren. It was electric. Over 1,000 people truly pumped.
Graham's wife is a great woman. His community loves him. Many of us supporting him are feminists, SA survivors, social justice advocates etc. We trust him. I have worked for 3 cycles trying to get Collins out. I think this is a year we can do this. Her MAGA connection is out in the open now. She is one of them. We will make sure Maine voters know this.
I’m with you. I was at our small Mayday rally, and I was aghast when a woman driver opened the passenger side window to lean over her young daughter to yell,”I Love Trump!” What kind of memory will that child take away from that?
Taking a day off to check out some live music here at the Jersey Shore. I did not spend yesterday on activism, was unable to take off from work. What are some reports back from yesterday? I saw big rallies in the major metro areas. What did Hopium folks do?
Maine is amazing, thanks for the update. And that John Stewart interview w Platner was pretty impressive--they went deep on FDR and I'm here for it!
Keep going!
It looks like North Carolina really showed up for May Day yesterday, which is encouraging and also interesting.
Indivisible had a survey out this morning, which you probably got too, so the results from that will be good to see.
Most of the school districts surrounding Raleigh had to cancel school because so many teachers were calling in. It's no surprise, because our per pupil funding and our teacher pay are now scraping the bottom of the barrel. And yet the legislature last year gave $500 million to rich people so they could send their kids to private school (75% of those receiving funds earn more than $125,000 per year and 87% already sent their kids to private school). People are pissed! May Day in NC was more about the NC General Assembly than Trump as far as I could tell.
Maine is one of the states that Field Team 6 is targeting to register new Dem/Independent voters. Many who are eligible to vote have never been asked. This is a good time to ask. Unengaged people can be activated now, especially with a candidate like Platner. And FT6 is a cost-effective way to do that. I’m a volunteer and donor and I’d urge others to join me. Fieldteam6.org.
Seconded…I’ve done some text banking for them and it’s super easy.
Fast and fun. Every “touch” helps! Thank you.
Thanks so much from a Mainer. We need all the help we can get. Hundreds of millions in dark money are headed our way to crucify him and build up the fake moderate sweetie image for Collins. She honestly is the devil in disguise. Think of the Portrait of Dorian Grey. Again, thanks for the help! Every senate seat effects every person in this country.
Former longtime Boston resident here. Spent many happy times in Maine, as did my husband whose family spent summers there long ago. Mt. Desert. Heaven. Fingers crossed that Platner’s lead will hold. He’s drawing big crowds.
In-person voter-registration events are also opportunities to educate and activate folks who’ve felt ignored. Our crew writes postcards to hard-to-reach people there.
The Devil wears Prada!
Good luck to them. The only TV ad that made any difference in the 2024 cycle was the Trump transgender ad, and it allegedly moved people who saw it only 2 points in his direction. I say allegedly b/c in order to run a test like that with any validity, you have to test it in a vacuum with everything else held constant, which has nothing to do with the real world and is only true in time for about as long as the ad runs for the test subjects for the first time.
Just based on the people from Maine I know (admittedly a small sample) , it sounds like an approach where the Platner attacks will backfire bigly, voters, whether left, right, or radical center, aren't looking for a moderate sweetie, and the ads against Collins write themselves: video of her saying "I'm concerned" captioned "Susan Collins on X', black screen, white text, 'Collins voted for X", rinse and repeat for 30 seconds, then do another one with 2-3 different more issues and votes. As long as you all stay together as a community the way we do in Hopium, and reach out to bring others into it, I bet Collins goes down hard this time.
Thanks so much for your thoughts Tom, especially the ad effectiveness. Each time I see MAGA etc attacking him, I get more and more entrenched in my support. Most everyone I know understands our mission but I have come across a few who are Never Platners. I am ignoring them at this point as they appear in the minority.
What about supporting Chris Pappas for Senate in NH to replace retiring Jeanne Shaheen? We do not want John Sununu in the US Senate.
sunnunu just said some really stupid shit about making medicare recipients work. when your opponent is drowning.....
We all know what he meant to say. But those attack ads should take him verbatim – and perhaps show a bunch of ancient 85-year-old Medicare recipients being forced to work.
i don't care what the context was. his problem, not ours.
I'm a NH resident, and I do wish we had a firebrand running, but I like Chris, even though I think he's too moderate/passive. I hope he has a strong team with good messaging and can tie the Sununus to maga. Also, this is a change election; trotting out a former Sununu from ages ago doesn't inspire confidence.
Wow on the Platner video. People think Susan Collins and the GOP are going to tear *that* apart? Whatever they're smoking, I don't want any. Are there more skeletons in his closet? Maybe. Might he be a terrible debater? Could be. Did needing a whole mansion made up of nothing but walk-in closets to store all his skeletons stop Donald Trump from getting elected twice? Did getting his a** kicked in every debate (except the last one with Biden, by TKO only), and none worse than the beatdown Kamala dealt, knock him out?
And we'd have to move this election to a parallel, photonegative universe to convince anyone in Maine that Susan Collins is strong and this guy is weak. Or that her heading the Appropriations Committee means a damn thing against what she's voted for. People in Maine may be resistant to change, but Trump has repeatedly poked the black bears up there, and they are seriously po'ed.
This is my feeling also.
What was once disqualifying (and may still seem so to some of us). That just ain't the game anymore!!
Plus you occasionally get these rather large personalities (like Trump unfortunately), that just have the 'x factor', whatever that is and that can overcome a lot.
The difference is, republicans are allowed to be colossal problematic fuck ups. Democrats are never allowed an inch of wiggle room.
The more we punch back with ferocity at "tan suit" bullshit, the less of it there will be.
Hell of an ad
Self report time - I went to a MayDay Strong demonstration in Redwood City. The speakers were Congressman Kevin Mullin, State Senator Josh Becker (who had gotten arrested in a labor protests at San Francisco Airport earlier that day), San Mateo Co. BOS President Noelia Corzo, Supervisor Lisa Gauthier. RWC Mayor Elmer Martinez, SSF City Council Member James Coleman (representing Working Families), a great show of support from all levels of government. They said all the right things appropriate for the day. I saw many of my usual protest friends, and took my self-assigned role as “counter-protester” with my tally clicker and counted/estimated ~400 people. Lots of enthusiastic honks, I noted only one “Trump, Trump, Trump” shoutout from a passing car (there probability were more, but far outnumbered by honks and shouts of support). My spouse and I went to a local family owned restaurant afterwards. Now onto the CA primary…..
I just got my ballot in the mail today and then researched everything and then voted and then drove to a drop box nearby and popped that baby in. Feels good.
Deeply concerned the GOP neg campaigning will bury Platner in videos and soundbites of his own past comments. He has a underlying history that is ripe for attack distortions that will play well with the far right and Republican community ethos of rural Maine. Platner may have waterfront recognition but backwoods acceptance is deeply questionable where Collins is complicity queen funding goddess.
I share your concerns. But it also seems clear that if attacked he will not curl up in a ball or stay in a defensive crouch. Seems like he might be able to attack and control the tempo of the campaign.
He won’t back down but will he be another Federman or Goldman who allows the GOoP to survive?
Honestly, the Governor and her allies attacked him hard. The R aligned media that has continued to build the darling image of Collins made sure they were reporting ringside. Most of Maine is aware of his baggage. He addressed it head on, explained, apologized and we have moved on. Outside groups have no idea how hated Collins is by so many of us. They also think libs won't tolerate a guy with Graham's issues. They are wrong. We adore him, those of us who have met him, researched him and done the work to vet him ourselves. His community loves him. He is brilliant. I think we have got this.
Obviously if we fail again, there are probably tens of thousands, many hundreds of thousands of us who will be absolutely devastated.
We know our mission. Job 1. Get her out.
>researched him and done the work to vet him ourselves
Where did you find his military records?
Denis, just one thing to consider.
It's been brought to attention by astute observers that Platner could have actually been snatched up by the far right: His message, AND his background (warts and all) are as purely populist as any of Trump's past winning messages.
Nahhhh. Platner is our dem choice and we need to go full throttle for him. We know for sure what Collins is and has done to us.
That is pretty insulting to the people of Maine, many of whom have spent a great deal of time getting to know him. People from all walks of life, including this feminist social worker with a history of trauma, are all in. He is a really good human being.
Turn the concern into action to defeat the GOP. As the incomparable N. Pelosi says: we don’t agonize; we organize!!!!!