Thanks for the important missive, Simon. As Joe would say, the Assad story is a BFD and signals a significant change in the Middle East as well as for all the players you mentioned. Also thank you for the final list of the candidates we supported and the amounts of contributions. That makes me so proud. Next election, let's keep track of the volunteer hours too? (Maybe you did?) Proud to be a Hopium member - onward. Kent
Susanna, shared these articles today for folks to start doing a deep dive on why this is clearly a watershed moment for MENA and the world. The weakening of the Russian-Iranian alliance is a big deal and one we will be spending time discussing in the days ahead.
Deep dive. I don't know why but virtually nobody in MSM (or here) addresses the reality that Russia has undermined us, put us in this position, using psy ops. Putin demands a quid pro quo from Trump. All the other stuff pales......
Fwiw, my interest in the Middle East started before I got to high school. I was paying attention during the rule of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father. And through the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and of course through the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, which removed Iraq as a counterweight to Iran.
The BBC and Al-Jazeera have both had – and continue to have – excellent live news threads on the developments and rapidly-changing situation in Syria. They’re a good complement to some of the deeper analytical articles that Simon posted links to.
PREEMPTIVE ACTION: Another thing that has drawn attention, is that IDF has taken the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and moved troops into Syria to establish a buffer zone along the Golan Heights. Israel has underscored that this is a temporary measure, that they do not intend to hold this territory, and they have conveyed to the various rebel forces that Israel wishes peaceful coexistence.
But for Israel, as well as many other, the history of the main rebel force, HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), gives cause for anxiety or at least trepidation. HTS was originally established under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra in 2011, as a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda.
Both Israel and the USA have been bombing chemical weapons and other arms depots to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands. The USA has also been bombing Islamic State (IS, also called Daesh) positions to prevent that extremist faction from exploiting the chaotic situation.
In fairness, it must be mentioned that Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa) broke ranks with al-Qaeda, and that he established HTS after dissolving al-Nusra. More noteworthy is that his recent statements have been far more moderate, and that he seems intent on moving rapidly but cautiously to establish tolerant rule in Syria.
That said, Syrians and the world will judge him not by his words but by his actions in the coming days and weeks.
This kid Jolani is smart. He has been watching what happened after Arab Spring withered and also Afghanistan. I am hooping he will do the right thing. Imagine all the free prisoners who do not know what internet or smart phones are!!!!
I am hoping the Kurds, which are the largest minority in Syria, are given a seat at the table in the new government. I’m not terribly optimistic, given that Jolani’s HTS is backed by Turkey; and, as we know, President Erdoğan has a vehement anti-Kurdish agenda.
While I keep looking for indications, so far I am not seeing any news that Jolani and the HTS have reached out to the Kurdish-led Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).
I hear you and this is exactly why my personal two cents worth is to let Turkey sit at the side table, not the main one although they took the most refugees.
Thank you! I have been limiting myself to very little news. I was shocked to learn this weekend that Assad was toppled and that I am so protecting myself from Trump revulsion that I missed this unbelievable news. I will definitely read up on and thank you again for the links. I definitely want to know how this all unfolded and so quickly.
Aljazeera world, not the USA version had incredible coverage for the last few days. Starting this morning, I am in Italy, they are almost all about Israel's a lions in Syria. A couplplex world it is. In the meantime Georgians are fighting for their country.
One thing I noticed on social media during the election stretch was that some undecided appeared to regard Democrats as “warmongers.” Some of this is Trump’s anti-globalism is inaccurately portrayed as pacifism. Whatever happens in Syria now I think it’s important to understand how complex these international affairs can be and how generally effective the Biden administration was at navigating them. Too many who had problems with him focused on Gaza only. That war was horrendous but response from voters was often way too reductive. Hard to know what will come with Trump administration having to deal with this. And why am I surprised to learn Russia’s support of Assad was about oil. With them, many things are often about oil.
"With them [Russia], many things are often about oil."
With the USA as well. Our meddling dates back at least to 1953, when CIA instigated a coup d'état against Iran’s democratically-elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. This was done at the request of the UK and the company that became British Petroleum. His autocratic replacement: Shah Reza Pahlavi.
I keep sayin' that Russia committed actionable acts of war.... War is an emergency. Happens to be actionable. Could trigger Biden as a "unitary executive." Could be our "redemption." All the other crap is rationalization.
The "spread" in the swing states was at most 2%.
On another venue we discussed Biden possibly negotating pardons with Trump...Trump has extensive civil liability...His henchmen still have criminal and civil liability.
Trump may be immune, but some of the threats from his henchmen, who are not public officials ...yet, may be state and federal crimes.
I have real concerns about the Russian interference and bomb threats. We seem to be giving it all a pass and I don’t understand that. It happened in 2016 when Obama didn’t want to make an issue of it and as now, quietly handed over the Oval Office to a crazy despot. Now the danger is so much worse and yet, our leaders seem to passively walk away.
Given that part of the 2024 reckoning is that the absence of negative ads on Trump allowed for a positive (!!!) view of his abysmal presidency, please consider sitting down with Rachel Bitcofer whose Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts book I have now re-read post election. Her take was in retrospect one the campaign should have paid more attention to and one we should integrate moving forward.
“Whatever you think about President Assad, the fact is that he is the President of Syria. In order for any peace agreement, in order for any possibility of a viable peace agreement to occur there has to be a conversation with him.”
. – Tulsi Gabbard, interview with Jake Tapper in 2017
And now, it seems, all conversation – which came to naught – has ended. Perhaps it’s high time for Tulsi to pay Bashar another visit. In fact, I suggest an extended stay with him in his new family home in Moscow. I’d gladly contribute to a one-way ticket!
I wonder if anyone here has any thoughts about Lindy Li's praise of Pete Hegseth as "a pretty good guy." Li is a regional chair of the DNC. This is pretty outrageous.
Family and friends gave donations and wrote post cards for several of the candidates mentioned here, showing why we need to continue the HC in some form, hopefully an expanded form
I’m passing along a point Josh Marshall has made at Talking Points Memo. Trump’s power/influence/mojo as an incoming president is unitary. When he has to pull a nominee, it goes down. Fighting against this set of nominees leaves him less ability to do damage later. (See TPM for a more detailed and nuanced expansion of this.)
Donald Trump has nominated longtime ally Brooke Rollins for secretary of agriculture, completing his cabinet roster.
He made the announcement Saturday late afternoon, tapping the head of Maga-backed think tank the America First Policy Institute for the job....
If confirmed by the Senate, she would oversee farm subsidies, federal nutrition programmes, meat inspections and other facets of the country's farm, food and forestry industries.
She would also play a key role in renegotiating the trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico, which could involve imposing Trump's promised tariffs.
Fwiw, Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafez al-Assad, was even worse. Hamas and Hezbollah didn't come out of nowhere, but your understanding of the region's history has to go back much farther than last year to realize that. (I recommend starting with the secret agreements of WW1 and the Versailles treaties that followed the war.) Iran would not wield the power it does if the U.S. and its coalition of the self-righteous hadn't taken out Saddam Hussein and turned Iraq -- which had been a counterweight to Iran -- into a civil-warring mess. The pretext for overthrowing Saddam was flimsy from the get-go: Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, and not even the CIA believed it had "weapons of mass destruction" after ca. 1991. Going back a little further, we could wonder if the ayatollahs could have pulled off their revolution in 1979 if the shah hadn't been such a Western puppet and if the U.S. hadn't thwarted Iran's attempts at liberalization (look up Mossadegh, 1953).
There is a thread of Israeli triumphalism is several segments of the Syria-part of this post. If you acknowledge the egregious suffering of the Syrians for the past 13 years, and the horrific war crime by Hamas of October 7th, is there really no room to refer to the slaughter of 40,000 Gazans and the intentional, ongoing starvation of the rest?
Simon...I love that your breath of information and contacts reaches out beyond our country and integrates the world into the problems we are now dealing with in America. Helping us see the larger picture of the world and it's interconnectedness and it's inevitable impact on the future is essential...and powerful for each of us as individuals to wrap our arms around. I cannot state how deeply depressed I am about the Harris' loss in the election....but your ability to spin things positively gives me Hopium when I most need it!
I am a retired teacher living mostly on social security but I have an iphone and a computer given as gifts. I also have a pen: three ways to stay informed and raise my voice for our democracy and our Constitution. I make very small donations to the cause remembering that every dollar counts. I am pleased and relieved to have access to Hopium. Thank you, Simon!
Thanks for the important missive, Simon. As Joe would say, the Assad story is a BFD and signals a significant change in the Middle East as well as for all the players you mentioned. Also thank you for the final list of the candidates we supported and the amounts of contributions. That makes me so proud. Next election, let's keep track of the volunteer hours too? (Maybe you did?) Proud to be a Hopium member - onward. Kent
Gee....Trump is a Russian backed monster. ....
Curious why you think the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad "signals a significant change in the Middle East." Elaborate?
Susanna, shared these articles today for folks to start doing a deep dive on why this is clearly a watershed moment for MENA and the world. The weakening of the Russian-Iranian alliance is a big deal and one we will be spending time discussing in the days ahead.
Thank you Simon, for the explanations you shared with us today.
Deep dive. I don't know why but virtually nobody in MSM (or here) addresses the reality that Russia has undermined us, put us in this position, using psy ops. Putin demands a quid pro quo from Trump. All the other stuff pales......
IMHO it is war.
If you go to Bluesky and search for Syria or Assad you will get a lot of insight as well.
Fwiw, my interest in the Middle East started before I got to high school. I was paying attention during the rule of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father. And through the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and of course through the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, which removed Iraq as a counterweight to Iran.
SYRIA – LIVE COVERAGE
The BBC and Al-Jazeera have both had – and continue to have – excellent live news threads on the developments and rapidly-changing situation in Syria. They’re a good complement to some of the deeper analytical articles that Simon posted links to.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/12/8/syria-war-live-news-opposition-groups-say-al-assad-rule-is-over
PREEMPTIVE ACTION: Another thing that has drawn attention, is that IDF has taken the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and moved troops into Syria to establish a buffer zone along the Golan Heights. Israel has underscored that this is a temporary measure, that they do not intend to hold this territory, and they have conveyed to the various rebel forces that Israel wishes peaceful coexistence.
But for Israel, as well as many other, the history of the main rebel force, HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), gives cause for anxiety or at least trepidation. HTS was originally established under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra in 2011, as a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo
. "Footage shows Syrian rebels in Damascus vowing: ‘From here to Jerusalem. We’re coming for Jerusalem. Patience, people of Gaza’"
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/footage-shows-syrian-rebels-in-damascus-vowing-were-coming-for-jerusalem-patience-people-of-gaza/
Both Israel and the USA have been bombing chemical weapons and other arms depots to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands. The USA has also been bombing Islamic State (IS, also called Daesh) positions to prevent that extremist faction from exploiting the chaotic situation.
In fairness, it must be mentioned that Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa) broke ranks with al-Qaeda, and that he established HTS after dissolving al-Nusra. More noteworthy is that his recent statements have been far more moderate, and that he seems intent on moving rapidly but cautiously to establish tolerant rule in Syria.
That said, Syrians and the world will judge him not by his words but by his actions in the coming days and weeks.
I doubt that any members of HTS are Shiite.
al-Qaeda is a Sunni jihadist organization, not Shiite.
The odds of Shiites falling in line are....? Probably slim to none.
This kid Jolani is smart. He has been watching what happened after Arab Spring withered and also Afghanistan. I am hooping he will do the right thing. Imagine all the free prisoners who do not know what internet or smart phones are!!!!
I am hoping the Kurds, which are the largest minority in Syria, are given a seat at the table in the new government. I’m not terribly optimistic, given that Jolani’s HTS is backed by Turkey; and, as we know, President Erdoğan has a vehement anti-Kurdish agenda.
While I keep looking for indications, so far I am not seeing any news that Jolani and the HTS have reached out to the Kurdish-led Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).
I hear you and this is exactly why my personal two cents worth is to let Turkey sit at the side table, not the main one although they took the most refugees.
Thank you! I have been limiting myself to very little news. I was shocked to learn this weekend that Assad was toppled and that I am so protecting myself from Trump revulsion that I missed this unbelievable news. I will definitely read up on and thank you again for the links. I definitely want to know how this all unfolded and so quickly.
I’m in the same mode Cindy
Thank you. I guess there are quite a few us.
I'm doing the same thing. I was devastated and taking time for my mental health right now. Glad to hear this news Simon.
EDIT: CNN has a fascinating interview with the HTS leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (Ahmed al-Sharaa), done a few days ago. It’s well worth watching.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-rebel-forces-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-jolani-intl-latam/index.html
So many links! Will definitely watch this later. I really want to get caught up on how this all unfolded. Thank you.
I am copying the links and sending to myself so I can read/watch later.
Aljazeera world, not the USA version had incredible coverage for the last few days. Starting this morning, I am in Italy, they are almost all about Israel's a lions in Syria. A couplplex world it is. In the meantime Georgians are fighting for their country.
One thing I noticed on social media during the election stretch was that some undecided appeared to regard Democrats as “warmongers.” Some of this is Trump’s anti-globalism is inaccurately portrayed as pacifism. Whatever happens in Syria now I think it’s important to understand how complex these international affairs can be and how generally effective the Biden administration was at navigating them. Too many who had problems with him focused on Gaza only. That war was horrendous but response from voters was often way too reductive. Hard to know what will come with Trump administration having to deal with this. And why am I surprised to learn Russia’s support of Assad was about oil. With them, many things are often about oil.
"With them [Russia], many things are often about oil."
With the USA as well. Our meddling dates back at least to 1953, when CIA instigated a coup d'état against Iran’s democratically-elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. This was done at the request of the UK and the company that became British Petroleum. His autocratic replacement: Shah Reza Pahlavi.
We taught Putin how to do it. https://www.goarmy.com/careers-and-jobs/specialty-careers/special-ops/psychological-operations
I keep sayin' that Russia committed actionable acts of war.... War is an emergency. Happens to be actionable. Could trigger Biden as a "unitary executive." Could be our "redemption." All the other crap is rationalization.
The "spread" in the swing states was at most 2%.
On another venue we discussed Biden possibly negotating pardons with Trump...Trump has extensive civil liability...His henchmen still have criminal and civil liability.
Trump may be immune, but some of the threats from his henchmen, who are not public officials ...yet, may be state and federal crimes.
I have real concerns about the Russian interference and bomb threats. We seem to be giving it all a pass and I don’t understand that. It happened in 2016 when Obama didn’t want to make an issue of it and as now, quietly handed over the Oval Office to a crazy despot. Now the danger is so much worse and yet, our leaders seem to passively walk away.
Same playbook in Haiti. Aristide.
Given that part of the 2024 reckoning is that the absence of negative ads on Trump allowed for a positive (!!!) view of his abysmal presidency, please consider sitting down with Rachel Bitcofer whose Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts book I have now re-read post election. Her take was in retrospect one the campaign should have paid more attention to and one we should integrate moving forward.
I noticed when Tom Bonier did Zoom interviews from his home, he had that book on his shelf!
I look forward to and thank you for the Asad/Syria perspective and its ramifications for Trump and his cabinet picks!
I continue to glean more information from Simon and the many smart comments in this substack.
“Whatever you think about President Assad, the fact is that he is the President of Syria. In order for any peace agreement, in order for any possibility of a viable peace agreement to occur there has to be a conversation with him.”
. – Tulsi Gabbard, interview with Jake Tapper in 2017
And now, it seems, all conversation – which came to naught – has ended. Perhaps it’s high time for Tulsi to pay Bashar another visit. In fact, I suggest an extended stay with him in his new family home in Moscow. I’d gladly contribute to a one-way ticket!
I will upgrade the ticket to Business class.
I wonder if anyone here has any thoughts about Lindy Li's praise of Pete Hegseth as "a pretty good guy." Li is a regional chair of the DNC. This is pretty outrageous.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5028472-dnc-official-defends-hegseth-i-actually-think-hes-a-pretty-good-guy/
WTF? He needs to go
Li is a she, but yes, she needs to be let go.
Family and friends gave donations and wrote post cards for several of the candidates mentioned here, showing why we need to continue the HC in some form, hopefully an expanded form
Mike. Are you from Buffalo?
IMPRESSIVE WINS & spread of our donations! THANK YOU HOPIUM family!
Undecided voters broke for a demented sexual predator. "Inching" toward anger? Not hardly. Is "yarding toward anger" a thing?
I’m passing along a point Josh Marshall has made at Talking Points Memo. Trump’s power/influence/mojo as an incoming president is unitary. When he has to pull a nominee, it goes down. Fighting against this set of nominees leaves him less ability to do damage later. (See TPM for a more detailed and nuanced expansion of this.)
That post by JM is a must read. I honestly go for his post first in my email box.
As I commented last week, I've already contacted my representatives. In the meantime, I'm focusing on Energy, Agriculture, Interior and the EPA.
Agriculture is incredibly important and has a far reach. From the BBC a couple of weeks ago https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c629vn5j836o:
Donald Trump has nominated longtime ally Brooke Rollins for secretary of agriculture, completing his cabinet roster.
He made the announcement Saturday late afternoon, tapping the head of Maga-backed think tank the America First Policy Institute for the job....
If confirmed by the Senate, she would oversee farm subsidies, federal nutrition programmes, meat inspections and other facets of the country's farm, food and forestry industries.
She would also play a key role in renegotiating the trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico, which could involve imposing Trump's promised tariffs.
Fwiw, Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafez al-Assad, was even worse. Hamas and Hezbollah didn't come out of nowhere, but your understanding of the region's history has to go back much farther than last year to realize that. (I recommend starting with the secret agreements of WW1 and the Versailles treaties that followed the war.) Iran would not wield the power it does if the U.S. and its coalition of the self-righteous hadn't taken out Saddam Hussein and turned Iraq -- which had been a counterweight to Iran -- into a civil-warring mess. The pretext for overthrowing Saddam was flimsy from the get-go: Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, and not even the CIA believed it had "weapons of mass destruction" after ca. 1991. Going back a little further, we could wonder if the ayatollahs could have pulled off their revolution in 1979 if the shah hadn't been such a Western puppet and if the U.S. hadn't thwarted Iran's attempts at liberalization (look up Mossadegh, 1953).
There is a thread of Israeli triumphalism is several segments of the Syria-part of this post. If you acknowledge the egregious suffering of the Syrians for the past 13 years, and the horrific war crime by Hamas of October 7th, is there really no room to refer to the slaughter of 40,000 Gazans and the intentional, ongoing starvation of the rest?
Simon...I love that your breath of information and contacts reaches out beyond our country and integrates the world into the problems we are now dealing with in America. Helping us see the larger picture of the world and it's interconnectedness and it's inevitable impact on the future is essential...and powerful for each of us as individuals to wrap our arms around. I cannot state how deeply depressed I am about the Harris' loss in the election....but your ability to spin things positively gives me Hopium when I most need it!
I am a retired teacher living mostly on social security but I have an iphone and a computer given as gifts. I also have a pen: three ways to stay informed and raise my voice for our democracy and our Constitution. I make very small donations to the cause remembering that every dollar counts. I am pleased and relieved to have access to Hopium. Thank you, Simon!