Today an AJC poll dropped showing trump +3 in Georgia; this set off elation on the right and worry on the left. I happily pointed out to both that this is an improvement for Harris over the last AJC poll which showed trump +5 In July. Even more surprising (to me) was trumps percentage dropped from 51% to 47%, while Harris only dropped from 46% to 44%. It's very encouraging, but LOTS of work to be done, no one can become complacent.
I want her to be leading there badly. Seriously we need this!!! Biden was leading at this point. Arrgghh I know no two elections are alike but still.... Need some net positive polls for Harris in Georgia dammit...
Keep in mind that after the polling "failure" in 2020, the major pollsters reworked their demographics to include more white males without a college degree. That's the group that helped trump get so close to winning in 2020. Now they are under sampling democratic groups like voters between 18-44, as well as oversampling republicans.
I don’t ever recall Biden leading. It wasn’t until a couple of weeks before election that Dem internal polling showed that it was closer than expected so they deployed everybody to campaign in GA, including Obama. Remember the car rallies with people honking their horns?!?
Note: Ballot curing is not like phone banking. You are reaching people who have voted, who are Democrats, who are super nice and who don't realize that their ballot has been rejected. Ballot curing helped Reverend Warnock and John Ossoff win...
While I am grateful for this smart analysis I ask that everyone refrain from warning us about complacency. This site and our community are workers and doers. We do more, worry less here. These warnings are insulting and I ask that people drop it from the chatter here.
Another candidate to consider for the house is Emily Randall (D-WA). She is running to replace Derek Kilmer (D-WA) in a very purple district that could go either way.
I honestly don't remember, but he was very well liked. I haven't talked, with Emily recently, so I honestly don't know for sure how close this race is. I just don't want to see her lose this race!
I'm writing postcards with Field Team 6 to register left-leaning people in targeted states (650 personally, so far, but our group led by Chris and Herb have sent over 21,000 cards so far!).
Thanks for the reminders about voter registration, I'd recently moved and completely forgotten to update my address. Doesn't matter much since I live in Washington, DC, but a vote's a vote!
Simon: I live in PA-10 and am a board member of Democratic Jewish Outreach Pennsylvania (www.djop.org), which is working to turn out Jewish voters for national and statewide Democratic candidates in PA. THANK YOU for adding Janelle Stelson to the list of Winning the House 11. I was at a fundraiser for her last night and there is huge energy behind her campaign. The six-term incumbent here, Scott Perry, was deeply involved in the January 6 coup plot and is completely out of touch with voters in this district. Here in PA-10 we will deeply appreciate whatever help you and the supporters of the Hopium Chronicles can provide to Janelle’s effort.
4. I am originally from the diaspora, i. e. Lawrence County, where Trump won in 2020 by 2 to 1. Other counties in Penssyltucky were worse. No longer have synagogues but still many Jews. Kamala surrogates need to visit all the towns in WPa. Visit the local media.
Thank you, Daniel. I will pass this along to the campaign. I hope you will take a look at our ad campaign at DJOP and consider participating for the modest price of $75.
Liz Cheney endorsed Colin Allred for Senate in Texas. I don’t know if she’s endorsed Jon Tester in Montana. Abortion is on the ballot in Montana so perhaps that will create higher turnout from women if they get registered ASAP. I’m giving so many more Act Blue Express recurring donations to Harris- Walz, Senators, and certain House races than I’ve ever given before. I also support Veteran Pat Ryan’s re-election to NY-18. He’s a West Point graduate and was a US Army Intelligence Officer. His postcard list is on postcards to voters.org. I feel he would make a fabulous future president.
Ive been watching your interview with Jen Ruben this morning, and the piece around the Senate races and stretch races. You are speaking about how expensive Texas and Florida would be. I am hopeful, as you say, that the new polling is not a bump phenomenon, but a structural shift. As support for Kamala continues to grow, and Trump/Vance continues to whack out in desperation, we will see more evidence like the polls in Iowa.
I was glad to hear you mention Nebraska and Missouri on a list of stretch races. Let me first say that I fully agree we need to be mindful of the lessons from 2016 where Clinton "lost sight of the electoral map." So this is no time to throw caution to the wind. However...
This is now the second time I am making the case for Lucas Kunce in Missouri to defeat Josh Hawley. I know you are working pedal to the medal, balls out, and you only have so much bandwidth. And it is still only September. But I want to plead with you to take a hard look at the Missouri Senate race in the coming days, using those analytical skills and data collection that you have developed with Tom Bonier. I don't think there is good polling in Missouri, (you would know better). Lucas Kunce says among all the terrible things about Josh Hawley that we know about, there is another negative: the guy has brought zero dollars home to his state. Apparently he is too busy cozying up to Putin to worry about doing the job of bringing home the bacon for his consitutents. Missouri is the "show me state" Hawley has shown them plenty about who he is. My gut says he Must be ripe for the taking.
I assume that going into Nebraska and Missouri would be far less expensive than Texas or Florida. The biggest positive about Missouri is the gap in character and integrity between the candidates. Senator Gary Peters announced investing in 10 battlegrounds. Sadly, Missouri nor Nebraska were among them.
Last thought here; you talk about campaigning with joy. I can't imagine any more joyfyul campaigning activity than postcarding for Lucas Kunce, a true patriot and solid dude, and working to oust Josh Hawley who in my mind is a bottom 3 deplorable senator along with Cruz and McConnell.
Thanks for everything Simon. As long as I am ranking, I would say that you and Mark Elias are the two most heroic figures beyond the candidates in this cycle
Here in Missouri, there are TWO new polls showing Lucas Kunce within 5 points of unseating extremist Josh Hawley. There polls don't account for the anticipated surge in turnout among women for Amendment 3 to legalize abortion. Hawley is spending heavily on attack ads against Kunce, which only increases the challengers name ID. As in other states, downballot Dems are running ahead of Harris. Missouri may still be a reach, but it belongs on the radar screen www.lucaskunce.com
I just signed the petition - after doing so, a msg appeared stating the following: "We did it! UNC Chapel Hill will give out free physical One Cards at no cost for students, faculty, and staff to use as Voter ID"!
I wonder if the same is needed at other UNC campuses...
Below are 17 House candidates that I am watching – a couple in addition to Hopium’s 15. I have included the poll numbers I’ve seen; strikingly, all except Mondaire Jones are leading or even with the Republican incumbent.
I am very hopeful that Democrats will flip most of these 17 House seats!
o Amish Shah (AZ-01), +1
o Kirsten Engel (AZ-06), +1
o Adam Gray (CA-13), Even
o Rudy Salas (CA-22), +2
o George Whitesides (CA-27), +3
o Will Rollins (CA-41), +6
o Derek Tran (CA-45), Even
o Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Even
o Carl Marlinga (MI-10)
o Tony Vargas (NE-02), +5
o Sue Altman (NJ-07)
o Laura Gillen (NY-04), +3
o Mondaire Jones (NY-17), –5
o Josh Riley (NY-19), +3
o Mannion vs Williams (NY-22), +7
o Janelle Bynum (OR-5), +2
o Janelle Stelson (PA-10), +1
(Apologies for my untidy post. I don’t know how to format a table in a comment.)
"Rarely, if ever, has a presidential campaign collapsed from seeming assurance into utter chaos as Trump-Vance has. The campaign seems to have stumbled into a strange unintended message: “Let’s go to war with Taylor Swift to stop Haitians from eating dogs.” The VP candidate wants to raise tariffs on toasters and worries that with Roe v. Wade overturned, George Soros may every day fill a 747 airliner with abortion-seeking pregnant Black women.
The stink of impending defeat fills the air—and so much of the defeat would be self-inflicted."
David Frum (one of my favorite "Never-Trumpers") writing this morning in The Atlantic
Today an AJC poll dropped showing trump +3 in Georgia; this set off elation on the right and worry on the left. I happily pointed out to both that this is an improvement for Harris over the last AJC poll which showed trump +5 In July. Even more surprising (to me) was trumps percentage dropped from 51% to 47%, while Harris only dropped from 46% to 44%. It's very encouraging, but LOTS of work to be done, no one can become complacent.
I want her to be leading there badly. Seriously we need this!!! Biden was leading at this point. Arrgghh I know no two elections are alike but still.... Need some net positive polls for Harris in Georgia dammit...
Keep in mind that after the polling "failure" in 2020, the major pollsters reworked their demographics to include more white males without a college degree. That's the group that helped trump get so close to winning in 2020. Now they are under sampling democratic groups like voters between 18-44, as well as oversampling republicans.
When was Biden leading in GA or AZ last cycle? Thought those were big surprises....
Biden was leading in both GA and AZ, plus he was leading in NC.
2016 and 2020 don't matter. Let's stay focused on 2024.
I don’t ever recall Biden leading. It wasn’t until a couple of weeks before election that Dem internal polling showed that it was closer than expected so they deployed everybody to campaign in GA, including Obama. Remember the car rallies with people honking their horns?!?
A really good way to help Harris-Walz in GA: Georgia
Sign up for ballot curing training and phone banking:
https://www.mobilize.us/2024gavictory/event/686812/
Note: Ballot curing is not like phone banking. You are reaching people who have voted, who are Democrats, who are super nice and who don't realize that their ballot has been rejected. Ballot curing helped Reverend Warnock and John Ossoff win...
Good tip, thank you, will take part in this!
Thanks for the link- signed up for the training
This is very important. Thanks for posting. I just signed up for Monday, September 23rd.
Rosemary,
Do you need to live in Georgia to do ballot curing?
While I am grateful for this smart analysis I ask that everyone refrain from warning us about complacency. This site and our community are workers and doers. We do more, worry less here. These warnings are insulting and I ask that people drop it from the chatter here.
Thank you for all you are doing!!
Please HELP Congressional Candidate for CD1 Callie Barr in Northern Michigan!
Re Tester. Women are 56% of the MT electorate. Still many who trend Democratic are unregistered. Still time for a blue tsunami. https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops/volunteer
Re Simon. 5 PM Pacific -- Sarah Longwell & Simon Rosenberg with Larry Mantle: A Close(r) Look at the 2024 Elections
https://www.jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/?mc_cid=a29872e01a&mc_eid=0dbd1298b3
Hadley Duvall is a devastating asset. I am speechless and humbled every time she opens her mouth.
That ad is devastating
Another candidate to consider for the house is Emily Randall (D-WA). She is running to replace Derek Kilmer (D-WA) in a very purple district that could go either way.
Didn't Kilmer win by 20 points?
I honestly don't remember, but he was very well liked. I haven't talked, with Emily recently, so I honestly don't know for sure how close this race is. I just don't want to see her lose this race!
Understandable, I live in a close district and I am out knocking doors most weekends to help the re-election effort.
I'm writing postcards with Field Team 6 to register left-leaning people in targeted states (650 personally, so far, but our group led by Chris and Herb have sent over 21,000 cards so far!).
Thanks for the reminders about voter registration, I'd recently moved and completely forgotten to update my address. Doesn't matter much since I live in Washington, DC, but a vote's a vote!
Your vote matters. 💙
Great job Meg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Simon: I live in PA-10 and am a board member of Democratic Jewish Outreach Pennsylvania (www.djop.org), which is working to turn out Jewish voters for national and statewide Democratic candidates in PA. THANK YOU for adding Janelle Stelson to the list of Winning the House 11. I was at a fundraiser for her last night and there is huge energy behind her campaign. The six-term incumbent here, Scott Perry, was deeply involved in the January 6 coup plot and is completely out of touch with voters in this district. Here in PA-10 we will deeply appreciate whatever help you and the supporters of the Hopium Chronicles can provide to Janelle’s effort.
1. Ask her to advertise on The Budget, PO Box 249, Sugarcreek, Ohio 44681.
The Budget: 330-852-4634. Accept all major credit cards
Only paper that influences Ancient order Amish.
2 31st St Dems have a mission to Lancaster. https://swingleft.org/group/31st-st-swing-left/join
3. Perry holds himself put to be a "General" but "not suckers or losers" flips a lot of 2x MAGATS. Check out FR Wellman. https://www.youtube.com/@ondemocracypodcast Fred is also chair of Forgotten Democrats. https://forgottendemocrats.org/ Our contact in the Casey campaign. Jack Inacker jack@veteransforcasey.com
4. I am originally from the diaspora, i. e. Lawrence County, where Trump won in 2020 by 2 to 1. Other counties in Penssyltucky were worse. No longer have synagogues but still many Jews. Kamala surrogates need to visit all the towns in WPa. Visit the local media.
5. Need allies.104,929.Ukrainian Pennsylvanians. 800,000 Polish Pennsylvanians, Baltics, Fins, etc oppose Putin.
Thank you, Daniel. I will pass this along to the campaign. I hope you will take a look at our ad campaign at DJOP and consider participating for the modest price of $75.
🙌🏻 thanks for sharing your locals knowledge of the candidate!🇺🇸
Just gave to all house members and passed it onto my network
thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Liz Cheney endorsed Colin Allred for Senate in Texas. I don’t know if she’s endorsed Jon Tester in Montana. Abortion is on the ballot in Montana so perhaps that will create higher turnout from women if they get registered ASAP. I’m giving so many more Act Blue Express recurring donations to Harris- Walz, Senators, and certain House races than I’ve ever given before. I also support Veteran Pat Ryan’s re-election to NY-18. He’s a West Point graduate and was a US Army Intelligence Officer. His postcard list is on postcards to voters.org. I feel he would make a fabulous future president.
Hi Simon,
Ive been watching your interview with Jen Ruben this morning, and the piece around the Senate races and stretch races. You are speaking about how expensive Texas and Florida would be. I am hopeful, as you say, that the new polling is not a bump phenomenon, but a structural shift. As support for Kamala continues to grow, and Trump/Vance continues to whack out in desperation, we will see more evidence like the polls in Iowa.
I was glad to hear you mention Nebraska and Missouri on a list of stretch races. Let me first say that I fully agree we need to be mindful of the lessons from 2016 where Clinton "lost sight of the electoral map." So this is no time to throw caution to the wind. However...
This is now the second time I am making the case for Lucas Kunce in Missouri to defeat Josh Hawley. I know you are working pedal to the medal, balls out, and you only have so much bandwidth. And it is still only September. But I want to plead with you to take a hard look at the Missouri Senate race in the coming days, using those analytical skills and data collection that you have developed with Tom Bonier. I don't think there is good polling in Missouri, (you would know better). Lucas Kunce says among all the terrible things about Josh Hawley that we know about, there is another negative: the guy has brought zero dollars home to his state. Apparently he is too busy cozying up to Putin to worry about doing the job of bringing home the bacon for his consitutents. Missouri is the "show me state" Hawley has shown them plenty about who he is. My gut says he Must be ripe for the taking.
I assume that going into Nebraska and Missouri would be far less expensive than Texas or Florida. The biggest positive about Missouri is the gap in character and integrity between the candidates. Senator Gary Peters announced investing in 10 battlegrounds. Sadly, Missouri nor Nebraska were among them.
Last thought here; you talk about campaigning with joy. I can't imagine any more joyfyul campaigning activity than postcarding for Lucas Kunce, a true patriot and solid dude, and working to oust Josh Hawley who in my mind is a bottom 3 deplorable senator along with Cruz and McConnell.
Thanks for everything Simon. As long as I am ranking, I would say that you and Mark Elias are the two most heroic figures beyond the candidates in this cycle
Doesn't cost anything to call into FT 6 phone banks, use BYOP texting. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, the Harris campaign told our DEC that it has 70,000 volunteers.
Support Katrina Christiansen as a stealth winner in North Dakota....
https://blackvotersmatterfund.org/volunteer/ is sending out over 4 Million texts just this week around voter registration. Great org to work with.
I live in Missouri and Kunce is a great candidate, while Hawley resides in Virginia and has almost no connection to the state.
https://bluemissouri.org/ This is a great way to help Missouri too.
Here in Missouri, there are TWO new polls showing Lucas Kunce within 5 points of unseating extremist Josh Hawley. There polls don't account for the anticipated surge in turnout among women for Amendment 3 to legalize abortion. Hawley is spending heavily on attack ads against Kunce, which only increases the challengers name ID. As in other states, downballot Dems are running ahead of Harris. Missouri may still be a reach, but it belongs on the radar screen www.lucaskunce.com
Oh, I would so like to see this happen! Josh Hawley and Rick Scott are near the top of my list of Republicans I want to see booted from the Senate.
Hosting some friends for a postcard writing party tonight for Safiyah Jackson (NC HD37) so Josh Stein has a working veto once he becomes NC Governor.
Speaking of which, the NCGOP is suing to remove the approval of UNC Student IDs as acceptable photo IDs. There is a petition to get UNC printing physical cards immediately so the students have them in time for Day One voting. Please consider signing. https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/one-card-one-vote-tell-unc-to-immediately-print-physical-one-cards-at-no-cost-for-all-students?clear_id=true
Assuming you have to live in NC to sign the petition?
No! Go for it!
Done
Thanks! Me too!
I just signed the petition - after doing so, a msg appeared stating the following: "We did it! UNC Chapel Hill will give out free physical One Cards at no cost for students, faculty, and staff to use as Voter ID"!
I wonder if the same is needed at other UNC campuses...
Amazing!! Thanks for reporting back. So glad we're getting it done!
I also just signed and the msg said immediately after that they still need 7 sigs to get to their goal of 1600. ?? No msg of having accomplished it.
So if others want to sign, pls ck it out and do so, just in case.
Today's action report: hosting 20 friends and neighbors over at my house this evening to phone bank for Harris/Walz.
This concludes today's action report.
You ROCK, my friends are meeting weekly to do this, too. Please join in phonebanking folks, now is the time!!!
Below are 17 House candidates that I am watching – a couple in addition to Hopium’s 15. I have included the poll numbers I’ve seen; strikingly, all except Mondaire Jones are leading or even with the Republican incumbent.
I am very hopeful that Democrats will flip most of these 17 House seats!
o Amish Shah (AZ-01), +1
o Kirsten Engel (AZ-06), +1
o Adam Gray (CA-13), Even
o Rudy Salas (CA-22), +2
o George Whitesides (CA-27), +3
o Will Rollins (CA-41), +6
o Derek Tran (CA-45), Even
o Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Even
o Carl Marlinga (MI-10)
o Tony Vargas (NE-02), +5
o Sue Altman (NJ-07)
o Laura Gillen (NY-04), +3
o Mondaire Jones (NY-17), –5
o Josh Riley (NY-19), +3
o Mannion vs Williams (NY-22), +7
o Janelle Bynum (OR-5), +2
o Janelle Stelson (PA-10), +1
(Apologies for my untidy post. I don’t know how to format a table in a comment.)
That's too bad about Mondaire Jones
He’s down, not out. Mondaire Jones may well pull through.
What is positive and striking to me is how all the other challengers are doing so well!
Self reporting. Donated today to The New Four. Cheers Hopium Mates
Me, too! Woot!
"Rarely, if ever, has a presidential campaign collapsed from seeming assurance into utter chaos as Trump-Vance has. The campaign seems to have stumbled into a strange unintended message: “Let’s go to war with Taylor Swift to stop Haitians from eating dogs.” The VP candidate wants to raise tariffs on toasters and worries that with Roe v. Wade overturned, George Soros may every day fill a 747 airliner with abortion-seeking pregnant Black women.
The stink of impending defeat fills the air—and so much of the defeat would be self-inflicted."
David Frum (one of my favorite "Never-Trumpers") writing this morning in The Atlantic