America Is Having a Good Summer, The Youth Vote, 3rd Party Ugliness, Upcoming Events

RSVP today for our July Events/Welcome New Subscribers!

Congress is back, inflation is down, the economy is strong, the Kerch bridge in Crimea is not having a good day, RFK is a malevolent f—k, and we have some terrific events for you in the next few weeks:

July Hopium Events (link)

• Tuesday, July 18th 8pm EST - Hopium Paid Subscriber Political Briefing and Hangout - RSVP (to upgrade to a paid subscriber click on the link below)

• Thursday, July 20th 1pm EST - With Democrats Things Get Better, July 2023 - RSVP, Learn More

• Tuesday, July 25th 8pm EST - My Monthly Political Briefing and Discussion - RSVP

Talks with Great Grassroots Groups

• Thursday, July 20th 7pm EST - 31st Street Swing Left - Zoom Link

• Friday, July 21st 7pm EST - Swing Left and Indivisible Oregon (COIN) - RSVP

• Saturday, July 22nd 1pm EST - Network NOVA’s 7th Annual Women's Summit: ALL IN to WIN Virginia - Learn more and RSVP. Excited for this one - look forward to seeing folks in person!

America Is Having A Good Summer - Last week we got more encouraging news on the inflation front - the monthly consumer price index rose 0.2% for June, or 2.4% on an annualized basis. Over the past 4 months, it has averaged a 2.1% increase annualized, and over the past 12 months it is now down to 3.0% annualized. This is all within the zone of what the Fed wants to see and means that further interest rate hikes are less likely now. You can find the full BLS report here, and this image comes from our good friends at Meidas Touch:

A few additional notes (links, sources here)

• Wages are now clearly outpacing inflation, and Americans are getting ahead. We are, finally, getting to the other side of the shocks of COVID and the Russian invasion Ukraine

• Job growth and GDP growth remain strong, a recession is not on the horizon. Our recovery has been better than any other advanced economy in the world

• The unemployment rate is near a 50 year low, the deficit is way down, the stock market is on a good run

• In recent months both the poverty and uninsured rates hit record lows, worker satisfaction is at all-time high, and new business starts are at historically elevated levels

• The President’s far-sighted investments in our future prosperity are already generating remarkable results, and America has once again become a global leader in countering climate change

America is having a good summer. Our economy is strong, inflation is down, Putin is stumbling in Russia, the flow to the border has plummeted, murder rates have come way down. Not having a good summer - Republican narratives about the Biden Presidency. Let’s be loud and proud about Joe Biden, and the success of his Presidency, peeps!

My Conversation With John Della Volpe About the Youth Vote - gotten a terrific response to our recent discussion with youth vote expert John Della Volpe. In this link you can find our talk and other resources to learn more about the all-important youth vote.

RFK’s Ethnic Bioweapons Rant, The Lies and Deceit of No Labels - Some initial topline thoughts about West/Stein, RFKJr, No Labels, perhaps others to come:

• None of these candidates can win, all are spoilers, none deserve much of our attention.

• Our strategic response to all of them is the same - we need to keep building up Joe Biden, make him and the Democratic Party stronger. Loud and proud.

• Anticipate extraordinary artificial amplification of all these candidates in social media - don't be surprised by it or mistake it for real support.

• My guess is that the ceiling for Manchin/No Labels is 8-10% of the electorate, pulling from both parties and thus their claims they are not spoilers is just performative bullshit. I think all these efforts are going to perform at the low end of their range because voters understand the gravity of our politics these days, and the threat MAGA poses. Not a time to throw away a vote.

• It is a core understanding here at Hopium that efforts to create an equivalency between the two parties - Biden/Dems and Trump/MAGA samesies - are a ridiculous distortion of the current moment, and always serve Republicans for they obscure decades of GOP policy failures and extremism and decades of repeated Democratic success. This understanding is at the core of our With Democrats Things Get Better presentation. Thus, when the new No Labels policy framework being formally released today starts with the following statement we here at Hopium realize 1) it is a Republican front group 2) they are once again rancid liars, worthy of our enthusiastic contempt, and that this entire effort is built on fundamental untruths that will limit its ability to reach voters:

  we see our two major political parties dominated by angry and extremist voices driven by ideology and identity politics rather than what’s best for our country

• I’ve written here about RFK’s parroting of Putin and pro-Russian memes, which has up until now been the most worrisome part of his candidacy. But over the past few days, reports of his discussion of “ethnically targeted bioweapons” has made headlines, and his actual words deserve to be heard by all of us and shared through your networks. RFK is not a “kook,” or a “conspiracy theorist.” Those descriptions are way too benign. He is a deeply malevolent, dark, and dangerous figure, clearly aligned with Putin and Trump/MAGA, who wishes to do harm to America and the American people. Watch this video below - you will never see him again in the same light again, and think about what it might mean for Trump to have a Kennedy running as his Vice President.

Top Reads for New Subscribers

No, There Wasn’t A Red Wave in 2022

On Our Independence Day, A Celebration of FDR’s Four Freedoms Speech

Putting White Supremacy Into The Dustbin of History, Where It Belongs

Not Obeying In Advance

Get to 55

Getting Louder

My Welcome Message

Happy Monday! Keep working hard all - Simon