Event change! Our event today at 1pm ET will now be about what happened in the 2024 election and what comes next. Seemed more appropriate, timely - join us!
Has anyone explained the Harris' campaign huge focus on reproductive rights/abortion when exit polls found only 11% of voters identified this as a major issue? I would have thought internal campaign polls would have noticed this. Thanks.
I think the fact that seven states still passed law to protect women's abortion rights. Was assumed that since these were on the ballot it would pull more votes for Harris.
Correction: one exit poll found 11% of voters identified it as THE MOST important issue to them. Many, many more folks almost definitely found it as one of the top issues to them, but not #1. Any campaign that doesnt focus on an issue that has a chunk of the electorate listing it as #1, especially if you have a trust advantage on it, would be committing malpractice. Repro rights was also an easy issue to work into the larger umbrella message of "protecting personal freedom" that likely proved potent with a lot of people, even if it didn't carry the day overall.
Simon; where is JD Vance?... these ridiculous cabinet nominations remind me that it is possible that they are a deflection from something even worse.... I can't get it out of my head.
Elon Musk is so dangerous. We all need to abandon X. And I for one would never purchase a Tesla. There are other electric vehicles that are probably better! By the way over 50% of Tesla parts are made in China. Musk will be a walking conflict of interest in the job trump gave him.
According to what I found, 70-75% of 2024 American Tesla car parts are made in the U.S., the difference depending on model. Stats are different for China Tesla cars, which contain much higher percentages of Chinese parts and are targeted to eventually contain 100% Chinese parts. We own a Tesla, bought "pre-Elon becomes James Bond villain" phase (2022). If we were to do it over again, we would shop elsewhere. Though it is a very nice car...
It's great that there was a celebration in Los Angeles, but I can't help thinking, as someone from the interior of the country, that this feels like a typical thing that Democratic consultant would do. I appreciate Simon, Dan Pfeiffer and Pod Save American guys and Jess Craven and their thoughts/work is absolutely needed. But we need to focus on the hollowed out places in the middle of the country and find people there and add their voices to the mix. That needs to be a big part of the conservation going forward. Our leaders--whether on these substacks or in the party-- can't just be people who live in blue states/cities that are, frankly, unaffordable to most of us. And yes, I know Simon supported Jane Kleeb in Nebraska and Anderson Clayton in NC and I'm grateful for that. But we need people like this to be the leaders whose voices we listen to more--not Gavin Newsom, not Hakeem Jefferies. That guy in Dan Osborne in Nebraska, we should be trying to get him to run again and more people like him. Newly elected NJ Senator Andy Kim's interview on Pod Save America talked was beautiful. I highly recommend people listen. He emphasized humility and I think that's right, but a big party in LA doesn't feel like humility to me.
I live in Missouri, which is deeply red, but I agree with you. I hope the party will elect Ben Wikler to head DNC and that they will focus on more states with possibilities, such as Kentucky. The really need to stake claims in more states.
I grew up and went to high school in the birthplace of Harry S. Truman (Lamar). Truman would have more than a few choice words for that scumbag Trump and his NAZI cohort
With all due respect to your Dad -- whose memory Trump and his cohort piss on every single day -- and much as I like and admire Truman, I don't think he was one of the two best presidents ever. (I would put Lincoln and Washington above him.) Truman fired that previous NAZI wanna-be MacArthur and that's good enough for me!
I agree we should be getting out more, and that the word "fly-over state" is ridiculous, but I want to push back that this was some 'glamorous LA' party. LA is a large city of working people, not just celebrities. (4 million celebrities would be way too much, tbh)
As someone who was there, this was a grassroots org where many of us volunteered our free time to postcard, phonebank, or took busses to canvas across the west coast. This event was kind of a lick-our-wounds, where we go from now thing, and I appreciate that Simon - who happened to be in town - took his valuable time to speak at our event. It was great to finally meet the other volunteers in-person!
I agree we need reach out to people all over the country, and if anyone has free time, please volunteer for ballot-curing!
Most of these phone-banking events are held for recruiting volunteers, but for some of them, yes, we will cure voters' ballots. Send these links to anyone you know. People from ANYWHERE can sign up and participate!
I commented something similar. I just saw your post. Agree 100%. I firmly believe that Blue states should not be ignored and I often feel as if California is ignored and our votes taken for granted so it was a nice experience.
Nancy you don’t think working people live in LA? You don’t think volunteers and those that worked hard to elect Dems across the country deserve a little recognition? Frankly, I’m not sure what bashing LA and California accomplishes.
I don’t think she was “bashing” - more expressing the need to have voices that speak to & buoy folks - who also worked hard in this election- from the middle of the country.
Sorry, it sounded like bashing. I was offended. People in California and other "blue" states work hard, donate and volunteer. So do people from every state. Simon has been to other parts of the country and I have never begrudged those states his visits.
And who has stifled voices from other parts of the country? She was complaining about people in LA having party they threw for themselves. Have a fucking party in Kenosha or wherever if you want to - why attack others for getting together and commiserating? I swear sometimes I wonder if we’re even worth saving.
The people at that LA office made tens of thousands of calls, sent hundreds of thousands of texts, hosted hundreds of organizing meetings, for races all across the country. They also organized busses for on-the-ground canvassers to reach all kinds of different neighborhoods locally, and more. Those volunteers worked their asses off, and that was not their full time job. And all of that worked helped flip two House seats as well as maintaining an extremely competitive CA-47 seat. Although it was a well-deserved "thank you" celebration, it was very focused on what we need to do to move forward. It was about rolling up the sleeves again, and not waiting until the mid-terms. There was absolutely humility, but also an appreciation of the people who fought the hardest on our behalf.
Furthermore, have to agree with Nathaniel, the vast majority of people in LA are "working class". Maybe part of the problem is that people in the hollowed out part of the country are in their own bubbles and buy into the caricatures of big cities. Everyone needs to come together, and all voices should be welcomed.
The guy who won the presidency is from New York, is a (supposed) millionaire, went to Penn (Wharton), and lives on a resort in Florida. His Vice President went to Yale and worked for a venture captial firm in San Fransisco before carpetbagging his way to the OH senate. The guy who powered their campaign is the world's richest person, and lived in the Bay Area for at least a decade until 2022.
Our nominee went to Howard, then UCSF law school, and was a public servant (making public servant money) her whole career. Our VP nominee was from a somewhat rural part of the Midwest and was a high school teacher most of his life.
Yet, we're the coastal elites?? Why we insist on flogging ourselves instead of making these points about ourselves and our opponents aggressively and relentlessly is beyond me.
It was a gathering hosted by Grassroots Democrats and it was free. As someone who lives in Los Angeles, I feel as if we, a blue state, are repeatedly ignored and our vote(s) taken for granted. So, it was nice to be able to attend something for once that was also affordable (free) and open to everyone. It was not a huge or fancy event by the way.
I live in Alabama's 3rd Congressional District where the incumbent, MAGA Mike Rogers, ran unopposed! (Shumari Figures won in the newly-drawn 2nd Congressional District). But still, to cede a seat to the NAZIs without even putting up a token opposition is deeply dispiriting.
Jess Piper recently wrote a piece on Substack about the tendency in Red rural states for Red candidates to run unopposed. In fact, she ran for Missouri state legislature against an incumbent Republican who had previously run all his campaigns unopposed. Jess lost, but felt there was great value in her campaign. She spoke of the importance of ending this unopposed "tradition" by running Dems, even if they know they will lose, who would force the incumbent Republicans to actually campaign. In turn, these Dems could begin to build the connections with rural voters which are presently missing.
Nancy, this is a ridiculous comment and you should take it down. 1) It insults people on our side. We don't do that here. You can make your points without angry spiteful comments. 2) There were 5 competitive House races in Southern California this cycle. We won 2 of them. If we won 3 we would control the House. Southern California and the Central Valley were among the most important battlegrounds in the election. 3) The group we partnered with there GDHQ did more work for candidates across the country than virtually any group in the country, and ran our phonebanks in NC, WI and key House races. Why denigrate them? I was in Los Angeles to see my daughter and teach a class at USC and asked if I could drop by and thank folks for their hard work this cycle. How could something this benign become something awful? 4) The 4 places Hopium put the most of our money? NC, AZ, NE, MT. Not exactly coastal elite territory. No group in the country put more money into the NE Dem Party than we did - the very place you site. Do us all a favor and take this ignorant and ugly post down.
Well stated, Simon .... I'm tired of hearing folks like Nancy parrot this blatantly false Republican talking point that Democratic "elites" on the coasts have ignored folks in the interior of the country.
Believe me, there were a lot of us on the West Coast (I'm in Portland) who worked our asses off for candidates in the interior. And there were some tight races out here (Bynum vs Chavez-DeRemer in OR & Gluesenkamp-Perez vs Kent in WA) that required our attention as well. I never heard anyone express resentment for having to contribute to success in those other states. And, I'm in no way elite!
I’m trying SO hard to keep the faith, I am. We worked so hard. I’ve been a Dem my whole life, voting to pay MORE taxes out of my middle class wage to help others get housing. Food. Education.
Yet the pundits tell me I am the problem. I didn’t LISTEN enough. I’m the “elite” because I went to college ( …so I could raise my two kids under 5 when my first husband took his life , so there’s that…) But, OK.
Where’s the loyal opposition? Joe & Mika ( MSNBC) went down to Maralago!! And Morning Consult reports that 54% of Americans think Trump’s transition picks are great!! ( that is, IF they’ve heard of them) And Joe says “ welcome back to the WH” as he greets the fascist with a smile. ( that was devastating… not saying he should have impeded the transition, but … the optics).
I am waiting for leaders to rise up. Speak up. That’s not gonna happen, though, is it? We’ll have to do it? From the ground up?
Yes, you are right about that. We’re older folks ( husband’s 78, I’m a decade younger) & we’re both “ watch the news people”… I’ve told him going forward that’ll mean more Substack, more podcasts, more YouTube… much less cable & mainstream news.
The mainstream media really did fail us after Trump was rehabilitated post January 6th so shocking .
I used to subscribe to The Washington Post, but I cancelled my subscription earlier this year because I was tired of their constantly bashing President Biden and Democrats in general. In fact, after Jeff Bezos declined to endorse Vice-President Harris, 250,000 readers cancelled their subscriptions: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/oct/29/washington-post-subscriber-cancellations.
Yes, the pundits keep saying we didn’t listen enough, even though we spent 8 years with endless articles and documentaries about Trump voters. It’s just an easy cliche at this point. Pundits aren’t offering deeper insights.
We learned Trump voters have economic anxiety and racial anxiety. I personally think those are the same: the economy anxiety is that conservative White men don’t want to compete with women and people of color who have spent years, generations even, working twice as hard for half the credit. (Democratic men don’t seem to fear people who don’t look like them.)
We weren’t going to give them the one thing they wanted, because our nominee was an outstandingly qualified and talented woman of color, and she made the White man running against her look weak and stupid.
Yes, furthermore, many Dem policies are very popular in both urban and rural areas, and are most favorable among people making less than $100,000/year:
-Increased minimum wage
-ACA expansion
-Medicare expansion
-Capping Prescription drug out of pocket expenses
-Child tax credit expansion
-Marijuana legalization
-Increasing taxes on millionaires
-Small business tax cuts
VP Harris was relentless in messaging these things, but her message didn't get through to enough people in the very short 3.5 months she had. I'm not sure what part of her main platform did not "speak to average voters".
Maybe these pundits should consider, like Dan Pfieffer has been warning us for years, and Simon and Tara talked about recently, that the RW has a vast multi-media network that pushes their agenda 24/7/365, and demonizes Dems 24/7/365, and is unabashed about lying to do it. To break through all of that noise to get our message out is a huge challenge, and one she almost pulled off.
Joe and Mika were old friends of Trump. He used to watch their show every morning, not Fox and Friends. Now that he won the popular vote, many people who tried to distance from him will think it's ok to be close with him again. Sad, but true.
I was incredibly disappointed that Biden met with that fascist at the WH. Way to further normalize Trump. And I love Biden but geez, why oh why do Democrats continue to normalize and play by the rules that the republicans or MSM don't play by? Do they actually think they get brownie points or what?
I hear you. I think Biden was trying to "lead by example." I don't know whether that works with fascists and malignant narcissists. But I respect Biden for trying. I do think it was unnecssary to have the videos of smiling and glad-handing; a simple photo of the hand-shake would have sufficed.
I didn't watch - glad I didn't. I understand Biden's sentiment but I disagree with him on this one. Sure, do the regular transition work that he (Biden) was denied. Just days before the election, JD Vance referred to Harris as trash and Trump called her stupid. You are right, of course, having had the pig in the wH, Biden didn't have to do the glad-handing. Even the Pope didn't do that when he met Trump. The Pope's expression was priceless.
Or maybe President Biden was just trying not to give the right wing anything they could add to their mountain of grievances. When the orange one inevitably complains that he was treated “horribly,” by the current administration, it will be one less clip his propagandists can put on a loop.
Definitely agree. Not that we should blow away all institutional norms, but so many of the voters we were hoping to get (younger, 18-24) couldn't give a flying f*ck about whether we're adhering to norms. And clearly, most of the country doesn't care either. The younger folks probably would have loved it if Biden had taken some shots at Trump during that meeting, foregoing the handshake, and then just saying a quick, "Best wishes for the American people in January" or something. We need to look like we have a f*ing spine. Not that I blame President Biden-- he's a truly good and decent man, and it would likely run against the entire fiber of his being to do something like that. Gotta be yourself.
I read reporting today (don't remember where offhand) that Joe and Mika were terrified that Trump's Department of Justice would be coming for them after January 20, 2025.
boo hoo - don't care - They are rich, privileged, white people that will be fine. So, they were scared? What about the rest of us? What about marginalized communities? My comment is not directed at you Charles by the way.
I get where you're coming from. I'm very concerned for the Latino clients of the food pantry where I volunteer. I do think Trump is going to have a few "show trials." Hope Liz Cheney has her travel documents in order (or a good Wyoming hidey-hole). Same goes for Generals Milley and Kelly. The reach of those show trials might reach the broadcast journalism cohort. But this is the time, as Shakespeare once wrote, to "screw our courage to the sticking place."
SF Haine, I totally agree! I was young once & I was an environmentalist, before it was acceptable, protested Vietnam, marched for Civil Rights/Justice, marched for RoevWade & have been an activist since before I could vote (it’s how I was raised). But trump & Co.
DID NOT win this election legally & we’re acting as if, we just didn’t fight hard enough! trump is a criminal—has always been a criminal, hateful racist, bigot & misogynist, like his horrible father, Fred!
Hillary helped him “win” in 2016, because she was so arrogant, thinking it was HER turn & she skipped battleground states because of it! The Clintons & Obamas are rich neoliberals now, & didn’t really come out for the Democrats until the damn convention (nor did Oprah—but she’s a whole other story, altogether)! Now all the celebrities, who came out for Harris, can all just go home, to one of their mansions, & just relax, while the rest of us have no idea what’s going to happen to this country!
I was a teacher in the Barrio/Inner city for 40 years. I loved my students & their families.
I didn’t have any children of my own because I knew I couldn’t do a good job at both & I loved my job! I’m now an exhausted elder. You’re taking about young candidates & the need to elect more! Well, there were many young MEN who voted for trump, and many were Latino & Black! This is horrifying to me! You’re now saying, well we just have to wait for 2, 4, 8 or TEN years to make things start to work for Progressives to help make a difference! Well, Bernie Sanders & I don’t have enough time left to wait that long! So, I hope you all can just keep working your asses off & not confronting things, or demanding recounts etc, because some of us are just DONE ✅ Good Luck….
I hear you. I do hope you can put your anger aside to consider the many innocent victims of the coming fascist junta and do what is in your power to help shield as many as you can from the coming reign of terror. As Simon said shortly after the election, "The next four years are going to be bad . . . very bad." Undocumented workers and trans people did not "do" anything to deserve the fate that awaits them with Miller, Homan and the rest of the NAZI crew.
If you can, please read today's Talkingpointsmemo.com by Josh Marshall. I am so proud of you for being so strong to raise your kids after a devastating tragedy. People like you are my hearo. Yes, I am an elite too with multiple graduate degrees. I say, to hell with them. I love my elites.
What you are witnessing is fascism. These folks are afraid. We should not take this lightly. That is what I am hearing from people who study these things. It is going to be a tough four years; when I hear Robert Reich saying he is angry and depressed, I know I am not alone. As for approvals, you are going to be seeing a lot of confectionary from the press, which is intimidated, over the next four years. it's best to tune most of it out. Just keep doing what we need to do for the midterms. We thought we were out in the wilderness in 2002, but we were not. Granted, no one is like trump, but that can work in our favor, as he had a unique ability to get infrequent voters out for him; witness a lot of people voted trump and nothing else on their ballots. Vance ain't got that. trump is sort of like the antithesis of Obama; a once in a lifetime candidate, but from the dark side...peace.
Booker's in a precarious position. New Jersey has been competitive in the last couple of elections. The Democratic Governor only won reelection by 3 points in 2021 (after winning by an easy double digits in 2017) and Harris only won the state by 5 points over Trump. I don't think it's turning into a red state per say, but it might be turning more purple. The Democratic Party in the state has been pretty corrupt and turning off a lot of people. Outsider Democrats like Andy Kim (who won by almost 10 points) seem to have success, but Booker I think is trying to be careful due to NJ being more competitive as of late.
NJ Dems have had difficulty holding onto the governor's mansion for decades; Murphy was the first to win two terms in 40 years, We do no expect to have another Dem next term, and Ciatarelli paints himself as moderate ( he is not ). We will still fight like hell, I'm supporting Sean Spiller, we could use a teacher in the governor's chair.
Mikey Sherrill is running for Governor of New Jersey. Just announced that she is running. She is great. Was a helicopter pilot in the military. Married and a mother of four and right now is in congress.
I know who she is. I'll be supporting Spiller. It's time someone with a background in education actually got to shape policy. It is really unlikely we will hold the governorship for 3 cycles in a state with high property taxes where trump lost by only 5 points. I've lived here 62 years and R governors have always been popular, mostly because they talk shit and blame Dems for everything; they can run as the outsider. It works for them.
Conversation with Anderson Clayton is one of the most inspiring of all the things I’ve read/listened to (oh, so many) since the election. Glad I did vast majority of my election $ giving through Hopium.
I was particularly gratified to see that Janelle Bynum, whom I phone-banked for in one of the Thursday-evening phonebanking sessions, flipped her disctrict in Oregon to become the first woman of color from Oregon to serve in the U.S. Congress.
I thank Simon and the Hopium community for giving me the opportunity to help Ms. Bynum win her victory.
Thank you for hosting Anderson Clayton today (and in ‘24 overall). We need many more Gen Z voices in this post-election discussion. Less establishment,
more on-the-ground.
Something profound is happening generationally that we need to understand from the inside. Worrisome (to me, tragic) that many young voters’ first vote was for MAGA this year. That allegiance may be hard to undo.
I was thinking the same thing about young voters' migration toward Trump-- uh oh. However, after watching yesterday's video about why they moved this year, it seems (and this is my experience, also) that they are far less ideological, and much more "in the moment" or "pragmatic"-- more focused on their personal situations at the time. So, the chances that they stay loyal to MAGA just because it's MAGA are lower, if they don't think it helped their situations.
The highest mountain of work is to actually get our message to these voters. The RW build a strong communication network throughout various avenues-- gaming sites, sports sites, entertainment sites, TikTok influencers, etc. The younger voters are mostly not MAGA, and they're open to new info, considering it can actually reach them.
I listened to an interview by Host: Manveen Rana on the Times.com, The Story Podcast with Christopher Hale, a Democratic consultant and strategist who once ran for congress in Tennessee. I found what he had to say about how the democratic party is perceived by many that have recently turned away from the party quite compelling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Am7YXu6ox8Q
I would be very interested to hear you Simon interview him.
Listening to the interview you linked (the first half, anyway), it sounds like the right is just really good at talking out of both sides of their mouth, so they sound centrist while being extreme.
At the same time, they amplify and exaggerate every tiny flaw when a Democrat doesn’t achieve the Platonic ideal, and never let it go. How long ago did Hilary Clinton say “deplorables”?
I don’t know how we counter the double standard. We certainly amplified the orange one’s terrible threats, but then we got pushback for being too negative.
I was struck by Christopher's statement that many folks feel unliked by folks in the Dem party. I think that could explain some of the hostility I experienced from non Kamala supporters when canvassing. Connecting with folks who are struggling to get by, much less get ahead, needs to be a major priority for Dems. Listening to, not telling them what they need and making a welcoming space in the Dem coalition for people who have differing views on the cultural issues in the news.
I was struck by that, too. But I think that message is not due to Dems’ behavior, or not entirely. It is from the right wing leaders who kept saying we hated them. Trump pretended he was convicted by a jury because liberals wanted to go after all conservatives. Conservatives have filed so many lawsuits claiming they were unfairly silenced, prosecuted, etc. It lends legitimacy to their claims when a judge has to consider the matter.
Dems tend to be welcoming and forgiving, but Republicans are told, over and over, that we want to take away their guns and bibles, outlaw saying “Merry Christmas,” and teach their children to should feel bad about themselves, or even show them porn. The right wing is constantly saying “liberals hate you and hate this country” and “Democrats want to replace you.” How many people believed that Biden was going to give their FEMA money to undocumented immigrants? Or that we “rigged” the 2020 election to deprive them of their votes?
We are pretty nice. But we need to find a way to counter the false narrative about us.
(And, yeah, canvassing undecided voters was a whole bunch of no fun.)
You would think that after all these years of Dems "wanting to take their guns" and it hasn't happened, they would know this isn't true. I remember my neighbor was convinced Obama was going to take his guns away - both terms! I did ask well do you have an AK47? Do you really need one? He said well no but Obama wants my other guns. Also, immigrants are taking over. Another neighbor told me that "these Mexicans" are taking the work kids used to be able to do, like lawn mowing. I asked her if her son wanted to mow our lawn and she said well he can't. He has afterschool things. (I wasn't going to fire our Gardners by the way).
they are doing a recount in PA be sure that they also recount the Presidential vote. I suspect that Musk tampered with the machines and we actually won the swing states
and read Stephan Spoonamore's Duty to Warn letter to Kamala Harris, and Kevin McKinney's article https://kmac.substack.com/p/rigged-cyber-security-experts-in. The swing state votes should all be recounted if there is even the slightest chance that the GOP, Musk, and Russia had their fingers in the pie. It's not hyperbole to say that our democracy and way of life is on the line.
Following the link, there is a detailed comment that is quite striking. [For the sake of clarity, I have added a few paragraph breaks.]:
"As an election mathematical analyst for the past 12 years, the methodology that Mr. Spoonamoore has created for finding "Bullet Ballots",( # Trump votes minus # downballot race votes/ # Trump votes) does NOT, in the vast majority of cases, represent the number of "bullet ballots." It is, however, a sum of multiple voter preference nuances. I can show you raw sample data from an exit poll in Arizona that can better explain.
"Additionally, many independents do not vote for Party as do 95% of Republican and Democrats and they often vote, for example, Trump for President and a Democrat for downballot races (and vice-versa). North Carolina has a huge independent base that supported Trump, which highly likely why NC has such a large numbers of "Bullet Ballots".
"The BEST indicator for "Bullet Ballots" is to look at the "undervotes" for downballot races, which literally signifies how many ballots did not cast a vote for a particular race.
"I have pulled data from 2020 and now 2024 by state and compared OVERALL voters of Presidential and US Senate races to find the percentage of undervotes is nearly identical from 2020 to 2024. FYI- that percentage of undervotes is usually around 1% between President to US Senate but, again, can vary depending on many nuances.
"If you'd like to discuss further, please comment thanks."
Thank you Arctic. I saw that post and it seemed pretty convincing, although I’d like to not engage in conspiracy theories. I think it speaks to our longing for a way for Kamala to reclaim the presidency. However, the entire theory falls apart if the basic calculations of the bullet ballots is faulty. Thank you for pointing this out.
Before 2020, when i voted on Election Day, the machines allowed you to vote for each candidate separately or you could choose the party lever which would flip all the switches for that party. It was very easy to vote the entire ballot for a single party. When I vote now by mail,
(Sorry) when I vote by mail, I have to fill in each circle individually, so it would be very easy to split the vote. It’s easier to vote differently for the top of the ticket than the down ballot candidates.
Note: Surprisingly, Kevin McKinney, the author of the linked substack article, has not responded to Phil’s detailed comment.
Imho, Phil’s comparison between 2020 and 2024 undervotes, and finding the percentages nearly identical, seems particularly important and worthy of discussion.
Hi ArcticStones, thanks for highlighting that comment. I've gone to the link and asked Phil to expand upon his remarks. I hope he can also supply that raw sample data from Arizona exit polls that he mentions.
One question I asked him was the following. Even if Spoonamore's metric is flawed or incomplete, why did he come up with such different percentages for swing states vs. nearby non-swing states? Was it simply because people in swing states are more likely to split their tickets? Or did something fishy go on?
Well done! Emmy, if you do hear back from Phil or others, please post here as well as to a fresh Hopium. :)
I would like nothing more than Spoonamore’s and Palast’s allegations to be provably correct! However, I have yet to see any clear indication that they are.
That said, I am surprised there has been so little media coverage of the bomb threats against urban polling sites heavily favored by minority voters – threats that our intelligence community believe originated from Russsia.
Hi ArcticStones, Phil did reply but not in detail. He said:
"Emmy- the best way to explain is to look at demographical votes distributions from from a swing state phone exit poll- and I have one we performed in Arizona on November 10th where we asked political preference, presidential preference, and US Senate preference. Assuming substack allows, I’ll post a screenshot ASAP."
It doesn't look like he's posted a screenshot yet, so maybe substack doesn't allow that?
A short version of my earlier comment: in Whatcom County in Washigton State, voters aged 18-24 turned out at 75%. Let that sink in. Voters 25-34 at 74%. Why? Because young people have agency in that county. Seven years ago, most board members of the Whatcom County Democrats were over 55. Now most are under 35. They've steered the local party toward an agenda that includes issues young voters care about: labor organizing, rental fees and rent increases, minimum wage, and climate issues. They elected a 25-year-old to the Bellingham City Council.
The lesson from Whatcom County Democrats Chair: "Behaving more like a grassroots civic organization than a typical political party has won local trust." Giving young Democrats agency made it happen.
Yes to Anderson Clayton's year around organizing!! When I was in Reno, Nevada canvassing three weeks before the election, I could feel that what we were doing was too little too late. The Dems can't just show up a few weeks or a few months before an election and expect people to support them. And, yes to Simon's without year round organizing "we can go in to a downward cycle", which is where we are in many places across this country.
Just finished listening to this interview. Great energy, enthusiasm from Anderson!
For me, she nails two key points: year around organization/community involvement and developing candidates. Ds need to STOP parachuting into communities 3-4 months and ask for people's vote. It reeks of inauthenticity. People can see through the bs in a minute. Also, that developing candidates has to be a long term (years, maybe even a decade), on going process, so that when opportunities present themselves, Ds have a deep, experience bench to run the appropriate candidate for the given office. This starts with people running for local office and move up the ladder as the situation allows. There are no short cuts or hacks to this process.
Last note, based on the numbers Simon gave, the average donation was ~$110. Impressive.
Durham, NC weighing in here - people here LOVE Anderson and her name truly rings out. Could not be more clear that state parties are critical, and that state leaders like Ben Wickler and Anderson Clayton are the model to follow moving forward. Anderson gets it on every level and I really, really hope she is central to the Senate races coming up at that the national party follows her lead
Has anyone explained the Harris' campaign huge focus on reproductive rights/abortion when exit polls found only 11% of voters identified this as a major issue? I would have thought internal campaign polls would have noticed this. Thanks.
I think the fact that seven states still passed law to protect women's abortion rights. Was assumed that since these were on the ballot it would pull more votes for Harris.
Correction: one exit poll found 11% of voters identified it as THE MOST important issue to them. Many, many more folks almost definitely found it as one of the top issues to them, but not #1. Any campaign that doesnt focus on an issue that has a chunk of the electorate listing it as #1, especially if you have a trust advantage on it, would be committing malpractice. Repro rights was also an easy issue to work into the larger umbrella message of "protecting personal freedom" that likely proved potent with a lot of people, even if it didn't carry the day overall.
Could there be anything happier than Anderson Clayton in one's feed?
Simon; where is JD Vance?... these ridiculous cabinet nominations remind me that it is possible that they are a deflection from something even worse.... I can't get it out of my head.
I’m not following. Can you explain your thinking?
I know… it’s like Elon Musk in the president now. Trump doesn’t care. Not one bit. We’re living under an oligarchy already
Elon Musk is so dangerous. We all need to abandon X. And I for one would never purchase a Tesla. There are other electric vehicles that are probably better! By the way over 50% of Tesla parts are made in China. Musk will be a walking conflict of interest in the job trump gave him.
According to what I found, 70-75% of 2024 American Tesla car parts are made in the U.S., the difference depending on model. Stats are different for China Tesla cars, which contain much higher percentages of Chinese parts and are targeted to eventually contain 100% Chinese parts. We own a Tesla, bought "pre-Elon becomes James Bond villain" phase (2022). If we were to do it over again, we would shop elsewhere. Though it is a very nice car...
The 12 Greenest Cars For 2024 [no Teslas need apply]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2024/03/01/clean-machines-the-greenest-cars-you-can-buy-for-2024/
Toyota Prius Prime PHEV ($32,975): Green Score 71
Lexus RZ 300e EV ($55,150): Green Score 67
Mini Cooper SE EV ($30,900): Green Score 67
Nissan Leaf EV ($28,140): Green Score 66
Toyota bZ4X EV ($43,070): Green Score 66
Toyota RAV4 Prime PHEV ($43,690): Green Score 64
Hyundai Elantra Blue HEV ($26,250): Green Score 64
Hyundai Kona Electric EV ($34,050): Green Score 63
Toyota Camry Hybrid HEV ($28,855): Green Score 63
Kia EV6 EV ($43,975): Green Score 63
Toyota Corolla Hybrid HEV ($23,500): Green Score 62
Hyundai Ioniq 5 EV ($41,650): Green Score 62
Source: ACEEE
It's great that there was a celebration in Los Angeles, but I can't help thinking, as someone from the interior of the country, that this feels like a typical thing that Democratic consultant would do. I appreciate Simon, Dan Pfeiffer and Pod Save American guys and Jess Craven and their thoughts/work is absolutely needed. But we need to focus on the hollowed out places in the middle of the country and find people there and add their voices to the mix. That needs to be a big part of the conservation going forward. Our leaders--whether on these substacks or in the party-- can't just be people who live in blue states/cities that are, frankly, unaffordable to most of us. And yes, I know Simon supported Jane Kleeb in Nebraska and Anderson Clayton in NC and I'm grateful for that. But we need people like this to be the leaders whose voices we listen to more--not Gavin Newsom, not Hakeem Jefferies. That guy in Dan Osborne in Nebraska, we should be trying to get him to run again and more people like him. Newly elected NJ Senator Andy Kim's interview on Pod Save America talked was beautiful. I highly recommend people listen. He emphasized humility and I think that's right, but a big party in LA doesn't feel like humility to me.
I live in Missouri, which is deeply red, but I agree with you. I hope the party will elect Ben Wikler to head DNC and that they will focus on more states with possibilities, such as Kentucky. The really need to stake claims in more states.
I grew up and went to high school in the birthplace of Harry S. Truman (Lamar). Truman would have more than a few choice words for that scumbag Trump and his NAZI cohort
Truman was a great President! My Dad fought in World War II and he always told me FDR and Truman were the two best Presidents ever!
With all due respect to your Dad -- whose memory Trump and his cohort piss on every single day -- and much as I like and admire Truman, I don't think he was one of the two best presidents ever. (I would put Lincoln and Washington above him.) Truman fired that previous NAZI wanna-be MacArthur and that's good enough for me!
Agree!
I agree we should be getting out more, and that the word "fly-over state" is ridiculous, but I want to push back that this was some 'glamorous LA' party. LA is a large city of working people, not just celebrities. (4 million celebrities would be way too much, tbh)
As someone who was there, this was a grassroots org where many of us volunteered our free time to postcard, phonebank, or took busses to canvas across the west coast. This event was kind of a lick-our-wounds, where we go from now thing, and I appreciate that Simon - who happened to be in town - took his valuable time to speak at our event. It was great to finally meet the other volunteers in-person!
I agree we need reach out to people all over the country, and if anyone has free time, please volunteer for ballot-curing!
Here are ballot-curing opportunities for Derek Tran (CA-45): https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/742562/.
And for Adam Gray (CA-13): https://www.mobilize.us/grassrootsdemocratslahq/event/743374/.
Most of these phone-banking events are held for recruiting volunteers, but for some of them, yes, we will cure voters' ballots. Send these links to anyone you know. People from ANYWHERE can sign up and participate!
I commented something similar. I just saw your post. Agree 100%. I firmly believe that Blue states should not be ignored and I often feel as if California is ignored and our votes taken for granted so it was a nice experience.
Nancy you don’t think working people live in LA? You don’t think volunteers and those that worked hard to elect Dems across the country deserve a little recognition? Frankly, I’m not sure what bashing LA and California accomplishes.
I don’t think she was “bashing” - more expressing the need to have voices that speak to & buoy folks - who also worked hard in this election- from the middle of the country.
Sorry, it sounded like bashing. I was offended. People in California and other "blue" states work hard, donate and volunteer. So do people from every state. Simon has been to other parts of the country and I have never begrudged those states his visits.
And who has stifled voices from other parts of the country? She was complaining about people in LA having party they threw for themselves. Have a fucking party in Kenosha or wherever if you want to - why attack others for getting together and commiserating? I swear sometimes I wonder if we’re even worth saving.
"I swear sometimes I wonder if we’re even worth saving."
LOL-- you're not alone.
Thank YOU. Go swear away. We all do, I hope.
The people at that LA office made tens of thousands of calls, sent hundreds of thousands of texts, hosted hundreds of organizing meetings, for races all across the country. They also organized busses for on-the-ground canvassers to reach all kinds of different neighborhoods locally, and more. Those volunteers worked their asses off, and that was not their full time job. And all of that worked helped flip two House seats as well as maintaining an extremely competitive CA-47 seat. Although it was a well-deserved "thank you" celebration, it was very focused on what we need to do to move forward. It was about rolling up the sleeves again, and not waiting until the mid-terms. There was absolutely humility, but also an appreciation of the people who fought the hardest on our behalf.
Furthermore, have to agree with Nathaniel, the vast majority of people in LA are "working class". Maybe part of the problem is that people in the hollowed out part of the country are in their own bubbles and buy into the caricatures of big cities. Everyone needs to come together, and all voices should be welcomed.
Agree 💯.
I agree. It rings tone deaf and coastal elitist.
Coastal elites huh, any other rightwing talking points to share?
The guy who won the presidency is from New York, is a (supposed) millionaire, went to Penn (Wharton), and lives on a resort in Florida. His Vice President went to Yale and worked for a venture captial firm in San Fransisco before carpetbagging his way to the OH senate. The guy who powered their campaign is the world's richest person, and lived in the Bay Area for at least a decade until 2022.
Our nominee went to Howard, then UCSF law school, and was a public servant (making public servant money) her whole career. Our VP nominee was from a somewhat rural part of the Midwest and was a high school teacher most of his life.
Yet, we're the coastal elites?? Why we insist on flogging ourselves instead of making these points about ourselves and our opponents aggressively and relentlessly is beyond me.
I agree with the sentiment, but do need to point out that Trump went to Penn, not Harvard.
Thank you! Corrected.
And crazy Hegseth? Princeton BA , MA Harvard.
It was a gathering hosted by Grassroots Democrats and it was free. As someone who lives in Los Angeles, I feel as if we, a blue state, are repeatedly ignored and our vote(s) taken for granted. So, it was nice to be able to attend something for once that was also affordable (free) and open to everyone. It was not a huge or fancy event by the way.
28-year former resident of Los Angeles here. The Latino population in LA are some of the hardest-working people I have ever met in my life.
My understanding is Simon was visiting LA for other purposes and offered to host an informal gathering for the LA Hopium folks while he was there.
Simon didn't even host it. He spoke for a few minutes and was very gracious - as were the other speakers.
I live in Alabama's 3rd Congressional District where the incumbent, MAGA Mike Rogers, ran unopposed! (Shumari Figures won in the newly-drawn 2nd Congressional District). But still, to cede a seat to the NAZIs without even putting up a token opposition is deeply dispiriting.
Jess Piper recently wrote a piece on Substack about the tendency in Red rural states for Red candidates to run unopposed. In fact, she ran for Missouri state legislature against an incumbent Republican who had previously run all his campaigns unopposed. Jess lost, but felt there was great value in her campaign. She spoke of the importance of ending this unopposed "tradition" by running Dems, even if they know they will lose, who would force the incumbent Republicans to actually campaign. In turn, these Dems could begin to build the connections with rural voters which are presently missing.
Nancy, this is a ridiculous comment and you should take it down. 1) It insults people on our side. We don't do that here. You can make your points without angry spiteful comments. 2) There were 5 competitive House races in Southern California this cycle. We won 2 of them. If we won 3 we would control the House. Southern California and the Central Valley were among the most important battlegrounds in the election. 3) The group we partnered with there GDHQ did more work for candidates across the country than virtually any group in the country, and ran our phonebanks in NC, WI and key House races. Why denigrate them? I was in Los Angeles to see my daughter and teach a class at USC and asked if I could drop by and thank folks for their hard work this cycle. How could something this benign become something awful? 4) The 4 places Hopium put the most of our money? NC, AZ, NE, MT. Not exactly coastal elite territory. No group in the country put more money into the NE Dem Party than we did - the very place you site. Do us all a favor and take this ignorant and ugly post down.
Thank you Simon.
Well stated, Simon .... I'm tired of hearing folks like Nancy parrot this blatantly false Republican talking point that Democratic "elites" on the coasts have ignored folks in the interior of the country.
Believe me, there were a lot of us on the West Coast (I'm in Portland) who worked our asses off for candidates in the interior. And there were some tight races out here (Bynum vs Chavez-DeRemer in OR & Gluesenkamp-Perez vs Kent in WA) that required our attention as well. I never heard anyone express resentment for having to contribute to success in those other states. And, I'm in no way elite!
Yes let’s all get up to Dora’s in how we parrot the right wing framing. We have our our. Framing! With Dems we do better!!
Sen. Cory Booker seems to "be open" to RFK jr. Time to make some phone calls.
He said that? Booker is bad on public education but let’s hope he’s not worse on public health.
Booker is for Booker. Always has been, always will be.
I’m trying SO hard to keep the faith, I am. We worked so hard. I’ve been a Dem my whole life, voting to pay MORE taxes out of my middle class wage to help others get housing. Food. Education.
Yet the pundits tell me I am the problem. I didn’t LISTEN enough. I’m the “elite” because I went to college ( …so I could raise my two kids under 5 when my first husband took his life , so there’s that…) But, OK.
Where’s the loyal opposition? Joe & Mika ( MSNBC) went down to Maralago!! And Morning Consult reports that 54% of Americans think Trump’s transition picks are great!! ( that is, IF they’ve heard of them) And Joe says “ welcome back to the WH” as he greets the fascist with a smile. ( that was devastating… not saying he should have impeded the transition, but … the optics).
I am waiting for leaders to rise up. Speak up. That’s not gonna happen, though, is it? We’ll have to do it? From the ground up?
MSNBC is entertainment, listen to the conversation w Anderson. That’s sustenance.
Yes, you are right about that. We’re older folks ( husband’s 78, I’m a decade younger) & we’re both “ watch the news people”… I’ve told him going forward that’ll mean more Substack, more podcasts, more YouTube… much less cable & mainstream news.
The mainstream media really did fail us after Trump was rehabilitated post January 6th so shocking .
Terra McGowan's Courier Newsroom has an excellent instagram channel - Very visual. https://www.instagram.com/couriernewsroom/
I used to subscribe to The Washington Post, but I cancelled my subscription earlier this year because I was tired of their constantly bashing President Biden and Democrats in general. In fact, after Jeff Bezos declined to endorse Vice-President Harris, 250,000 readers cancelled their subscriptions: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/oct/29/washington-post-subscriber-cancellations.
I cancelled my subscription as well. I keep getting emails offering me a discount. Nope. Not subscribing.
I'm getting them, too, but nope--no dice.
I hear you!
Yes, the pundits keep saying we didn’t listen enough, even though we spent 8 years with endless articles and documentaries about Trump voters. It’s just an easy cliche at this point. Pundits aren’t offering deeper insights.
We learned Trump voters have economic anxiety and racial anxiety. I personally think those are the same: the economy anxiety is that conservative White men don’t want to compete with women and people of color who have spent years, generations even, working twice as hard for half the credit. (Democratic men don’t seem to fear people who don’t look like them.)
We weren’t going to give them the one thing they wanted, because our nominee was an outstandingly qualified and talented woman of color, and she made the White man running against her look weak and stupid.
Yes, furthermore, many Dem policies are very popular in both urban and rural areas, and are most favorable among people making less than $100,000/year:
-Increased minimum wage
-ACA expansion
-Medicare expansion
-Capping Prescription drug out of pocket expenses
-Child tax credit expansion
-Marijuana legalization
-Increasing taxes on millionaires
-Small business tax cuts
VP Harris was relentless in messaging these things, but her message didn't get through to enough people in the very short 3.5 months she had. I'm not sure what part of her main platform did not "speak to average voters".
Maybe these pundits should consider, like Dan Pfieffer has been warning us for years, and Simon and Tara talked about recently, that the RW has a vast multi-media network that pushes their agenda 24/7/365, and demonizes Dems 24/7/365, and is unabashed about lying to do it. To break through all of that noise to get our message out is a huge challenge, and one she almost pulled off.
Joe and Mika were old friends of Trump. He used to watch their show every morning, not Fox and Friends. Now that he won the popular vote, many people who tried to distance from him will think it's ok to be close with him again. Sad, but true.
They're gross. They will be fine. They are rich, white and live in their bubble. Clearly they have no pride or shame so what do they care?
I was incredibly disappointed that Biden met with that fascist at the WH. Way to further normalize Trump. And I love Biden but geez, why oh why do Democrats continue to normalize and play by the rules that the republicans or MSM don't play by? Do they actually think they get brownie points or what?
I hear you. I think Biden was trying to "lead by example." I don't know whether that works with fascists and malignant narcissists. But I respect Biden for trying. I do think it was unnecssary to have the videos of smiling and glad-handing; a simple photo of the hand-shake would have sufficed.
I didn't watch - glad I didn't. I understand Biden's sentiment but I disagree with him on this one. Sure, do the regular transition work that he (Biden) was denied. Just days before the election, JD Vance referred to Harris as trash and Trump called her stupid. You are right, of course, having had the pig in the wH, Biden didn't have to do the glad-handing. Even the Pope didn't do that when he met Trump. The Pope's expression was priceless.
Or maybe President Biden was just trying not to give the right wing anything they could add to their mountain of grievances. When the orange one inevitably complains that he was treated “horribly,” by the current administration, it will be one less clip his propagandists can put on a loop.
He will say it anyway and the media will be complicit.
Definitely agree. Not that we should blow away all institutional norms, but so many of the voters we were hoping to get (younger, 18-24) couldn't give a flying f*ck about whether we're adhering to norms. And clearly, most of the country doesn't care either. The younger folks probably would have loved it if Biden had taken some shots at Trump during that meeting, foregoing the handshake, and then just saying a quick, "Best wishes for the American people in January" or something. We need to look like we have a f*ing spine. Not that I blame President Biden-- he's a truly good and decent man, and it would likely run against the entire fiber of his being to do something like that. Gotta be yourself.
Totally agree
Joe is a republican at heart. He served four terms in the House as a member of the GOP.
I read reporting today (don't remember where offhand) that Joe and Mika were terrified that Trump's Department of Justice would be coming for them after January 20, 2025.
boo hoo - don't care - They are rich, privileged, white people that will be fine. So, they were scared? What about the rest of us? What about marginalized communities? My comment is not directed at you Charles by the way.
I get where you're coming from. I'm very concerned for the Latino clients of the food pantry where I volunteer. I do think Trump is going to have a few "show trials." Hope Liz Cheney has her travel documents in order (or a good Wyoming hidey-hole). Same goes for Generals Milley and Kelly. The reach of those show trials might reach the broadcast journalism cohort. But this is the time, as Shakespeare once wrote, to "screw our courage to the sticking place."
SF Haine, I totally agree! I was young once & I was an environmentalist, before it was acceptable, protested Vietnam, marched for Civil Rights/Justice, marched for RoevWade & have been an activist since before I could vote (it’s how I was raised). But trump & Co.
DID NOT win this election legally & we’re acting as if, we just didn’t fight hard enough! trump is a criminal—has always been a criminal, hateful racist, bigot & misogynist, like his horrible father, Fred!
Hillary helped him “win” in 2016, because she was so arrogant, thinking it was HER turn & she skipped battleground states because of it! The Clintons & Obamas are rich neoliberals now, & didn’t really come out for the Democrats until the damn convention (nor did Oprah—but she’s a whole other story, altogether)! Now all the celebrities, who came out for Harris, can all just go home, to one of their mansions, & just relax, while the rest of us have no idea what’s going to happen to this country!
I was a teacher in the Barrio/Inner city for 40 years. I loved my students & their families.
I didn’t have any children of my own because I knew I couldn’t do a good job at both & I loved my job! I’m now an exhausted elder. You’re taking about young candidates & the need to elect more! Well, there were many young MEN who voted for trump, and many were Latino & Black! This is horrifying to me! You’re now saying, well we just have to wait for 2, 4, 8 or TEN years to make things start to work for Progressives to help make a difference! Well, Bernie Sanders & I don’t have enough time left to wait that long! So, I hope you all can just keep working your asses off & not confronting things, or demanding recounts etc, because some of us are just DONE ✅ Good Luck….
I hear you. I do hope you can put your anger aside to consider the many innocent victims of the coming fascist junta and do what is in your power to help shield as many as you can from the coming reign of terror. As Simon said shortly after the election, "The next four years are going to be bad . . . very bad." Undocumented workers and trans people did not "do" anything to deserve the fate that awaits them with Miller, Homan and the rest of the NAZI crew.
If you can, please read today's Talkingpointsmemo.com by Josh Marshall. I am so proud of you for being so strong to raise your kids after a devastating tragedy. People like you are my hearo. Yes, I am an elite too with multiple graduate degrees. I say, to hell with them. I love my elites.
What you are witnessing is fascism. These folks are afraid. We should not take this lightly. That is what I am hearing from people who study these things. It is going to be a tough four years; when I hear Robert Reich saying he is angry and depressed, I know I am not alone. As for approvals, you are going to be seeing a lot of confectionary from the press, which is intimidated, over the next four years. it's best to tune most of it out. Just keep doing what we need to do for the midterms. We thought we were out in the wilderness in 2002, but we were not. Granted, no one is like trump, but that can work in our favor, as he had a unique ability to get infrequent voters out for him; witness a lot of people voted trump and nothing else on their ballots. Vance ain't got that. trump is sort of like the antithesis of Obama; a once in a lifetime candidate, but from the dark side...peace.
Booker's in a precarious position. New Jersey has been competitive in the last couple of elections. The Democratic Governor only won reelection by 3 points in 2021 (after winning by an easy double digits in 2017) and Harris only won the state by 5 points over Trump. I don't think it's turning into a red state per say, but it might be turning more purple. The Democratic Party in the state has been pretty corrupt and turning off a lot of people. Outsider Democrats like Andy Kim (who won by almost 10 points) seem to have success, but Booker I think is trying to be careful due to NJ being more competitive as of late.
You are likely correct there …
Couldn't he pick something else to cave on? Trump, after all, is just getting started.
NJ Dems have had difficulty holding onto the governor's mansion for decades; Murphy was the first to win two terms in 40 years, We do no expect to have another Dem next term, and Ciatarelli paints himself as moderate ( he is not ). We will still fight like hell, I'm supporting Sean Spiller, we could use a teacher in the governor's chair.
Mikey Sherrill is running for Governor of New Jersey. Just announced that she is running. She is great. Was a helicopter pilot in the military. Married and a mother of four and right now is in congress.
I know who she is. I'll be supporting Spiller. It's time someone with a background in education actually got to shape policy. It is really unlikely we will hold the governorship for 3 cycles in a state with high property taxes where trump lost by only 5 points. I've lived here 62 years and R governors have always been popular, mostly because they talk shit and blame Dems for everything; they can run as the outsider. It works for them.
What???? OMG. You cannot be correct. 🤦🏻♀️
Conversation with Anderson Clayton is one of the most inspiring of all the things I’ve read/listened to (oh, so many) since the election. Glad I did vast majority of my election $ giving through Hopium.
Completely agree and just amazed by her leadership! We’re lucky to have her in our camp.
I was particularly gratified to see that Janelle Bynum, whom I phone-banked for in one of the Thursday-evening phonebanking sessions, flipped her disctrict in Oregon to become the first woman of color from Oregon to serve in the U.S. Congress.
I thank Simon and the Hopium community for giving me the opportunity to help Ms. Bynum win her victory.
Thank you for hosting Anderson Clayton today (and in ‘24 overall). We need many more Gen Z voices in this post-election discussion. Less establishment,
more on-the-ground.
Something profound is happening generationally that we need to understand from the inside. Worrisome (to me, tragic) that many young voters’ first vote was for MAGA this year. That allegiance may be hard to undo.
I was thinking the same thing about young voters' migration toward Trump-- uh oh. However, after watching yesterday's video about why they moved this year, it seems (and this is my experience, also) that they are far less ideological, and much more "in the moment" or "pragmatic"-- more focused on their personal situations at the time. So, the chances that they stay loyal to MAGA just because it's MAGA are lower, if they don't think it helped their situations.
The highest mountain of work is to actually get our message to these voters. The RW build a strong communication network throughout various avenues-- gaming sites, sports sites, entertainment sites, TikTok influencers, etc. The younger voters are mostly not MAGA, and they're open to new info, considering it can actually reach them.
Young men are definitely moving to the right; this is not without historical precedence or significance.
I listened to an interview by Host: Manveen Rana on the Times.com, The Story Podcast with Christopher Hale, a Democratic consultant and strategist who once ran for congress in Tennessee. I found what he had to say about how the democratic party is perceived by many that have recently turned away from the party quite compelling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Am7YXu6ox8Q
I would be very interested to hear you Simon interview him.
Listening to the interview you linked (the first half, anyway), it sounds like the right is just really good at talking out of both sides of their mouth, so they sound centrist while being extreme.
At the same time, they amplify and exaggerate every tiny flaw when a Democrat doesn’t achieve the Platonic ideal, and never let it go. How long ago did Hilary Clinton say “deplorables”?
I don’t know how we counter the double standard. We certainly amplified the orange one’s terrible threats, but then we got pushback for being too negative.
I was struck by Christopher's statement that many folks feel unliked by folks in the Dem party. I think that could explain some of the hostility I experienced from non Kamala supporters when canvassing. Connecting with folks who are struggling to get by, much less get ahead, needs to be a major priority for Dems. Listening to, not telling them what they need and making a welcoming space in the Dem coalition for people who have differing views on the cultural issues in the news.
I was struck by that, too. But I think that message is not due to Dems’ behavior, or not entirely. It is from the right wing leaders who kept saying we hated them. Trump pretended he was convicted by a jury because liberals wanted to go after all conservatives. Conservatives have filed so many lawsuits claiming they were unfairly silenced, prosecuted, etc. It lends legitimacy to their claims when a judge has to consider the matter.
Dems tend to be welcoming and forgiving, but Republicans are told, over and over, that we want to take away their guns and bibles, outlaw saying “Merry Christmas,” and teach their children to should feel bad about themselves, or even show them porn. The right wing is constantly saying “liberals hate you and hate this country” and “Democrats want to replace you.” How many people believed that Biden was going to give their FEMA money to undocumented immigrants? Or that we “rigged” the 2020 election to deprive them of their votes?
We are pretty nice. But we need to find a way to counter the false narrative about us.
(And, yeah, canvassing undecided voters was a whole bunch of no fun.)
You would think that after all these years of Dems "wanting to take their guns" and it hasn't happened, they would know this isn't true. I remember my neighbor was convinced Obama was going to take his guns away - both terms! I did ask well do you have an AK47? Do you really need one? He said well no but Obama wants my other guns. Also, immigrants are taking over. Another neighbor told me that "these Mexicans" are taking the work kids used to be able to do, like lawn mowing. I asked her if her son wanted to mow our lawn and she said well he can't. He has afterschool things. (I wasn't going to fire our Gardners by the way).
Thank you Simon for all your constant work ….
they are doing a recount in PA be sure that they also recount the Presidential vote. I suspect that Musk tampered with the machines and we actually won the swing states
Bob L 914 714 2320
and read Stephan Spoonamore's Duty to Warn letter to Kamala Harris, and Kevin McKinney's article https://kmac.substack.com/p/rigged-cyber-security-experts-in. The swing state votes should all be recounted if there is even the slightest chance that the GOP, Musk, and Russia had their fingers in the pie. It's not hyperbole to say that our democracy and way of life is on the line.
I wrote about it, supra.
YES THEY SHOULD ‼️
Following the link, there is a detailed comment that is quite striking. [For the sake of clarity, I have added a few paragraph breaks.]:
"As an election mathematical analyst for the past 12 years, the methodology that Mr. Spoonamoore has created for finding "Bullet Ballots",( # Trump votes minus # downballot race votes/ # Trump votes) does NOT, in the vast majority of cases, represent the number of "bullet ballots." It is, however, a sum of multiple voter preference nuances. I can show you raw sample data from an exit poll in Arizona that can better explain.
"Additionally, many independents do not vote for Party as do 95% of Republican and Democrats and they often vote, for example, Trump for President and a Democrat for downballot races (and vice-versa). North Carolina has a huge independent base that supported Trump, which highly likely why NC has such a large numbers of "Bullet Ballots".
"The BEST indicator for "Bullet Ballots" is to look at the "undervotes" for downballot races, which literally signifies how many ballots did not cast a vote for a particular race.
"I have pulled data from 2020 and now 2024 by state and compared OVERALL voters of Presidential and US Senate races to find the percentage of undervotes is nearly identical from 2020 to 2024. FYI- that percentage of undervotes is usually around 1% between President to US Senate but, again, can vary depending on many nuances.
"If you'd like to discuss further, please comment thanks."
– Phil
Thank you Arctic. I saw that post and it seemed pretty convincing, although I’d like to not engage in conspiracy theories. I think it speaks to our longing for a way for Kamala to reclaim the presidency. However, the entire theory falls apart if the basic calculations of the bullet ballots is faulty. Thank you for pointing this out.
Before 2020, when i voted on Election Day, the machines allowed you to vote for each candidate separately or you could choose the party lever which would flip all the switches for that party. It was very easy to vote the entire ballot for a single party. When I vote now by mail,
(Sorry) when I vote by mail, I have to fill in each circle individually, so it would be very easy to split the vote. It’s easier to vote differently for the top of the ticket than the down ballot candidates.
But thank you for your comment.
Note: Surprisingly, Kevin McKinney, the author of the linked substack article, has not responded to Phil’s detailed comment.
Imho, Phil’s comparison between 2020 and 2024 undervotes, and finding the percentages nearly identical, seems particularly important and worthy of discussion.
Hi ArcticStones, thanks for highlighting that comment. I've gone to the link and asked Phil to expand upon his remarks. I hope he can also supply that raw sample data from Arizona exit polls that he mentions.
One question I asked him was the following. Even if Spoonamore's metric is flawed or incomplete, why did he come up with such different percentages for swing states vs. nearby non-swing states? Was it simply because people in swing states are more likely to split their tickets? Or did something fishy go on?
Well done! Emmy, if you do hear back from Phil or others, please post here as well as to a fresh Hopium. :)
I would like nothing more than Spoonamore’s and Palast’s allegations to be provably correct! However, I have yet to see any clear indication that they are.
That said, I am surprised there has been so little media coverage of the bomb threats against urban polling sites heavily favored by minority voters – threats that our intelligence community believe originated from Russsia.
Hi ArcticStones, Phil did reply but not in detail. He said:
"Emmy- the best way to explain is to look at demographical votes distributions from from a swing state phone exit poll- and I have one we performed in Arizona on November 10th where we asked political preference, presidential preference, and US Senate preference. Assuming substack allows, I’ll post a screenshot ASAP."
It doesn't look like he's posted a screenshot yet, so maybe substack doesn't allow that?
I agree about the bomb threats.
Thank you!
That sounds pretty vague
Is that a hand recount? I think that might be needed to uncover the fraudulent patterns that Spoonamore has been hypothesizing.
I was wondering - it doesn’t seem like there’s a downside to a recount. If there’s no fraud, then ok. But if there is, better to find it before Jan.
Anderson Clayton will be the Head of the DNC one day soon.
A short version of my earlier comment: in Whatcom County in Washigton State, voters aged 18-24 turned out at 75%. Let that sink in. Voters 25-34 at 74%. Why? Because young people have agency in that county. Seven years ago, most board members of the Whatcom County Democrats were over 55. Now most are under 35. They've steered the local party toward an agenda that includes issues young voters care about: labor organizing, rental fees and rent increases, minimum wage, and climate issues. They elected a 25-year-old to the Bellingham City Council.
The lesson from Whatcom County Democrats Chair: "Behaving more like a grassroots civic organization than a typical political party has won local trust." Giving young Democrats agency made it happen.
🙏🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Wow. That is a red area too. I wish other places could learn from it.
Bellingham is deep blue, but the surrounding areas in Whatcom County tend to be reddish.
I’m so proud of all the work we did in my state, NC! It paid off even in our heavily gerrymandered state.
I just can't understand how Trump won there and the other statewide offices went to Dems.
Micro targeting of scary false info ads to vulnerable voters using Russian tactics collusion with putin with TOns of dark money from Elon mush
B/c large rural areas only voted for DT and Mark Robinson. Cities all Dem but rural areas are huge. We are 9 th in population in the US.
Yes to Anderson Clayton's year around organizing!! When I was in Reno, Nevada canvassing three weeks before the election, I could feel that what we were doing was too little too late. The Dems can't just show up a few weeks or a few months before an election and expect people to support them. And, yes to Simon's without year round organizing "we can go in to a downward cycle", which is where we are in many places across this country.
Just finished listening to this interview. Great energy, enthusiasm from Anderson!
For me, she nails two key points: year around organization/community involvement and developing candidates. Ds need to STOP parachuting into communities 3-4 months and ask for people's vote. It reeks of inauthenticity. People can see through the bs in a minute. Also, that developing candidates has to be a long term (years, maybe even a decade), on going process, so that when opportunities present themselves, Ds have a deep, experience bench to run the appropriate candidate for the given office. This starts with people running for local office and move up the ladder as the situation allows. There are no short cuts or hacks to this process.
Last note, based on the numbers Simon gave, the average donation was ~$110. Impressive.
Durham, NC weighing in here - people here LOVE Anderson and her name truly rings out. Could not be more clear that state parties are critical, and that state leaders like Ben Wickler and Anderson Clayton are the model to follow moving forward. Anderson gets it on every level and I really, really hope she is central to the Senate races coming up at that the national party follows her lead