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RemovedSep 16
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Robert, I am taking this post down for 1) The MT Senate race is a toss up. It is not true Tester is behind and folks here need to stop saying it. 2) We don't do "buts" "howevers" semicolons or commas here. All of the polling and electoral news is extraordinarily positive right now and there simply is no reason to respond to all this uplifting stuff with an attempt to bring us all down.

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You are welcome to come at this another way that is bringing negative sentiment into our discussion at the very beginning of the day.....

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Where is that showing up in polling?

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Suzanne, as you are new here, we don't do "people are saying" stuff here, particularly given how manipulated our discourse is. We work from data, not impressions, not what I am "hearing." I have shared with you data showing us have a 3-4 pt lead in the national polls. What's happening in the Middle East is not a significant concern for voters. The elephant in the room is Trump and the danger he represents. In the future when you comment here please bring data not impressions. Thank you.

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(Can't resist pointing out that the Unabomber had a Ph.D. from Michigan.) Um, okay in other news, more related to the purpose of this forum, I had a long train ride today and got 30 postcards done for Nebraska Blue Dot!!! It's easy to make a little "on the go" postcard kit to take with you. Have 20 more in progress; batches of 50 always!

GO Team Hopium GO GO GO, and remember, Hard Work is Good Work!! 🥥🌴💪

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Suzanne, you are clearly here not to inform or do work but to cause trouble. I am refunding your money and banning you from the site. We don't have time for this. We have an election to go win. Thank you.

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It's so refreshing to have a disciplined, data and purpose-driven place to go Simon. Thank you.

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Suzanne with all due respect your post makes no sense, at least to my own squirrel brain.

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It is not a ‘real’ problem, despite the frantic social media posting, many from suspicious looking accounts. Hint: it’s another psyop. A handful of real people may have bought in, but if it were a real factor Simon of all people would be aware of the data to support that.

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I prefer to focus on real, quantifiable issues. Time is precious and the data supports many tangible issues.

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Sep 14·edited Sep 14

Harris 50-45 (+5) Morning Consult

Harris 47-42 (+5) Ipsos/Reuters

Harris 51-47 (+4) RMG

Harris 50-46 (+4) Data4Progress

Harris 49-45 (+4) YouGov/Times (LVs)

Harris 50-47 (+3) Leger/NYPost

Harris 48-45 (+3) SoCal

Harris 44-42 (+2) Redfield & Wilton

Looking at these numbers, any chance we'll see a final result of 51% for Harris and 42 for Trump?

It's also interesting - the lowest we see for Harris is 44, the highest for Trump is 47. Watch those numbers over the next week or so - my guess is we won't see any more polls for Harris below 46, and no more for Trump above 46.

After the next few weeks, I think it's going to spread, closer to 51-42.

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I worry about the percentages in the swing states. Do you have current figures on them?

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We had very good state polling this week. Why are you worried? If you are looking for current data head to 538.

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I will. And thank you! (P.S. I can't help but worry!)

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Around here, when we feel worry, we get to work instead!

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Simon is there any comment on the AtlasIntel poll? That was not a good poll for us, but it appears to be a major outlier.

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Hi Don, Hope so that would be great.

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I think the key number is 51%. If that holds, then remember: Clinton lost in 2016 in large part because her popular vote share was less than 50%. Biden won with about 51%. Ergo, our odds of winning popular vote AND electoral college increase bigly (wink, wink) if we get above 50%.

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Others have pointed out that Trump has never and appears to have no strategy to get above 47%. The 3rd party candidates seem weaker in comparison to 2016. I see no reason she can't hit 52% and even approach 53%. I also think that his current strategy looks like one to drive base turnout up (enthusiasm driven by fear of immigrants) rather than one to add voters. It's slightly hard to believe the current direction of their campaign is driven by anyone other than Trump... but who knows? He's gone full Loomer.

Maybe his shitty debate performance might show up in their polling as reduced enthusiasm, which would explain doubling down to drive up base turnout. If there is any careful strategy at all.

So it seems to me if we still lead in enthusiasm (we have a lot of it), we can overwhelm them. He's also telling people to not vote by mail, which is going to hurt them.

If our vote numbers go up, they can have the same number of voters but their percentage goes down. So maybe his number drops to 45-46%. Some of the polls seem to hint at a slight softening of his support.

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He may be setting up his far-right swing state election officials to cause some trouble. He can't win legitimately and we all know he won't go quietly. Do we have lots of lawyers on hand?

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This is why Simon says about voting early. You have a lot more time to deal with this issue on so many fronts if you convince our voters to vote early. Not to mention you put the onus on Rs to catch up with us.

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No question that is their plan. It is not secret so I assume there is planning on our side. Along with the campaign one could donate to Democracy Docket. Maybe others have suggestions. ACLU I have been giving to since 2017. There are going to be much legal work to go around after this.

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Thanks, that is reassuring. Overall I focus on things I can do.

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Harris-Walz has hired a ton of lawyers, including the amazing Marc Elias from Democracy Docket. They are well prepared to handle whatever comes.

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Thank you Simon, this is excellent data and continuously encouraging as we come towards the home stretch. Interestingly enough, the Missouri State Supreme Court ruled the abortion initiative had to be on the ballot. While we can’t assume every state with such a referendum choice will sway blue to Harris, every state with such a ballot measure puts the very state in play. Not to mention, their given senate and house races. Perhaps Josh Hawley is now more vulnerable…certainly one can hope. The most palpable matter of this entire election is women’s healthcare and the giant which awoke after the overturning of Roe is still wide awake and will be through the election cycle and beyond. That innate solace provides not necessarily comfort, but great and realistic in my view…optimism toward significant voter turnout that will surpass both 2016 and 2020 and can help us not only win but win big. Never underestimate the women of this country and I say that as a proud male ally who has long yearned for a female president and had instincts about Harris years back before it was popular. Let’s hope to anything and everything above my instincts pan out but through our collective hard work.

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Women's healthcare is a magic ticket. My blood boils just typing this e-mail. 🤓

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"A historic, $3 million investment into Spanish-language radio for the month alone"! This is great news! I read, several months ago, that on many Spanish language order shows (radio and ? I think TV) the only person being touted was trump. So glad that the Harris campaign is fixing this. [P.S. BTW, I never knew why you used the word "Hopium". Nice to know.]

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KD,

If interested in Spanish speaking vote you may be interested in reading about the project Simon was involved in to increase Hispanic vote in Democratic Party. Created a solid foundation of ( mostly) shared values. The data really impressive. I think he was working on NDN at the time.

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That's great to hear! Thanks, Irene.

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Hello everyone,

Wanted to start by recommending my brother Michael's latest fantastic post (https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/meeting-the-dc-special-interests). Harris's team should read this. If the people want policy, here is the foundation for some real popular and substantive policy.

Best wishes,

David Salzillo

Writer of Salzillo's Two Cents (https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/).

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Given that, I am thinking the Harris campaign should start thinking about overturning Citizen United as one of our central campaign messages. It ties back to an idea Simon has been talking about since the Biden campaign: tackling the decay of our government. Whether it's the Supreme Court (which nobody likes), the dark money groups (which nobody likes), or the many other problems within our government, tying a Harris presidency and a Democratic House and Senate to overturning Citizens United is a compelling message that resonates with the type of voters I talk to during phonebanks, and that Simon has shown resonates with voters in statistical analysis.

It also compliments an attack line on our New Do-Nothings in Congress (https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/p/the-new-do-nothings), which has the blessing of no less than Trump the obstructionist himself.

I plan on writing more about this for my blog, but, short story, I think it would be a very promising line of substance. This is the way to "distinguish" Harris-Walz from Biden-Harris: Harris will (if the voters help her with Congress and etc.) have the resources to get to the root of the problem in our economy, in our politics, etc,. People understand this intuitively, and I think it would be very successful. Especially with Walz laying out plans for Rural America and paycheck-to-paycheck America.

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Excellent interview Simon!~! Hopium is bringing such Hope!~!

Kamala Harris is an amazing presidential candidate!~!

If people see her, and hear her, how can they not want her in the White House?

If it wasn't for all the lies and hideous propaganda pushed by right wing media, which unfortunately appears to influence so many people, she would be a shoe in! I hear people say Trump is better on the economy, and I am stunned by that. You are correct about exposure and showing the American who she is! Once you see her and hear her, you know, she is prepared to lead this coutry forward! Tim Walz is also amazing and the perfect choice for VP! Thank you for all your work! You are amazing too! :)

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The focus on data and positive action is what makes this group (and its wonderful members!) so refreshing. I don't have the energy to join my friends wringing their hands and stuck in despair. Not one person takes our premise seriously. Yet, everything is kind of moving along like we discussed (and SO MUCH better).

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Hi Susan

That is why I subscribed, which I don't do often.

Hopium! The positive, respectful message and work offered by Simon!

So refreshing and of course, filled with hope!

It's wonderful. I sent it to my neighbor and he feels the same way. :)

Thank you for posting your comment. Respect and Hope are so important!

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It’s affirming to hear others share information and action. Thanks for confirming. ☺️

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Simon, that discussion you and Tara had with Jiore Craig and Stuart Stevens was the most concise, fact-based discussion of Russian influence not only in our collective politics, but what has transformed the Republican party into the "Party of Putin" that I have ever seen. Stuart Stevens' first hand accounts of attempts to recruit him and his firm into the effort was illuminating and deeply disturbing. Mr. Stevens also provided an extremely important step-by-step historical analysis of how the Republican Party of Reagan morphed into this thing we see today. Talk about a long game! I'm going to share this video with as many people as I can.

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Sep 14·edited Sep 14

Tremendous all the way around. I keep feeling when Kamala Harris -Tim Walz and the Democratic Candidates Up and Down the Ballot win. Our Country Will Move Forward towards the America I always dreamed was possible with everyone having the opportunity to thrive. Thank you Simon!

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Self reporting. Simon’s email every morning is as essential to my day as my first cup of coffee. I’m still on track to do at least one thing per day to add something to the election…social media posts, personal conversations, donation to selected candidates. I am so far the only one displaying a Harris/Walz sign along side an American flag in my very conservative neighborhood. Good news is only one neighbor is displaying a tiny Trump sign almost hidden in the hedges but he does have a much larger flag than mine. Rally crowd size and flag size seems to mean something to the Trump folks. Today donated to Jacky Rosen for Senate in Nevada. Cheers Hopium Mates

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Thanks for sharing.

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founding

What a great week! Voting starts next Friday here in Virginia. Local Republicans are begging their folks to vote early, so we'll see. I'm continuing to phone bank from now until Nov. 4th.

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I’ll be voting on Friday in VA along with you. Let’s do it!

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Get EVERYONE you know to vote on day one and have them do the same!!! As someone said above, let's win this election in October, push the vote all through the month. LFG!

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Going out to breakfast with a girlfriend on Friday and then to vote! Wouldn’t miss it for the world 👏👏👏

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Nice, LFG!!!

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Hi Simon,

I live in Ohio and I'm a little worried about Sherrod Brown. Heather Cox Richardson was talking this morning about how this Springfield, Ohio crap is part of a plan to scare people in Ohio about immigrants to vote for his opponent, Bernie Moreno. It could backfire of course since they've had to close schools, hospitals, city hall due to bomb threats. Anyway, hoping some might show some love to Sherrod. He's such an incredible guy and losing him here would be such a gut punch. Here's a link if anyone wants to give https://www.sherrodbrown.com/

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Nancy, if you're worried about Sherrod Brown, and you actually live in Ohio, the good news is that you're well-positioned to do convert that worry into action! What are you, yourself, currently doing to work to help Sherrod win in November?

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I'm canvassing and postcard writing.

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Thank you for your service!!

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Yes, yes, yes. Sherrod Brown is one of the best we have. Which is why he is competitive in what is a Republican state.

By the way, here is something else to spread the word about relating to possible backfiring: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/trump-vance-aiden-clark-springfield-ohio.html. Plain old indecent, and the people of Ohio, R or D, don't appreciate that.

So spread the word Nancy. Going to the phonebanks with the right kind of message helps.

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Choose not to go to a place of worry. "Do more, worry less."

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In between the tough work of calling into swing states, post carding and canvassing think about ballot curing for Georgia (it's in play): https://www.mobilize.us/2024gavictory/event/686812/

Voter suppression tactics are alive, well and rampant in Georgia. People are routinely thrown off the voter rolls and there are myriad reasons that ballots are refused. Stacey Abrams, Fair Fight and the New Georgia Project aggressively help voters address "issues" with their ballots i.e. "cure" them and send them back to be counted.

It works: Reverend Warnock and Jon Ossoff got elected that way. No question.

Ballot curing is not like phone banking. You are reaching people who have voted, who are Democrats, who are super nice and who don't realize that their ballot has been rejected. I have done this for two election cycles: you will be contacting people who are grateful and unsurprisingly, quite used to this rigamarole. You can keep doing everything else you're doing and start the ballot curing once you're alerted.

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Thank you for the information.

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Thanks for the info, will get involved!

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We just got 2 more national polls showing Harris with a 4 point lead. I've added them to today's post if you want to see - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/another-very-good-week-for-vp-harris

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The magic 2020 margin of victory. :)

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