Very encouraging signs, though I am nervous about the redistricting arms race starting in Texas and extending to Ohio and Missouri.
With the help of the daughter of the late Tom Hofeller, I have been examining the files and their stories behind how they remade the nation's maps through racial gerrymandering. What the Hofeller Files show according to all the existing reports is that the GOP mapmakers and consultants knew precisely how to carve up and pack non-white voters into districts that diluted their voting share and power. They knew the intricate link between race, geography, and party (especially in the South and Midwest).
Hofeller did work across the country, including in Texas & Ohio, among other places. We need to further reexamine that work and see what his associates are doing now i.e Dale Oldham, Doug Johnson, and Trey Trainor so we can challenge these gerrymandered maps coming down the pike.
Thoughts on this new WSJ poll, which has him at 46%? The tone of this piece is bizarre, I think, as it seems to celebrate this as some kind of strength when weighed against...himself.
The Republican side of this poll is Trump's pollster, Tony Fabrizio, who happens to deliver the very message Trump wants to convey right now. It is 6 points better for Trump than the current working average for Trump on Strength in Numbers. One poll. The lionshare of the rest show things far worse for him.
Helpful. Thanks. I found the celebratory tone really bizarre, Even with this poll, it is down at least 5-6% in six months....hardly cause to be excited.
Trump's pollster just saved his job and helped the WSJ weather the storm the Epstein storm they created. What is hard to understand is why the Dem pollster Anzalone played along with the game.
And as I have said here they see polling as part of the info domain, and work it hard, as they do all aspects of the info domain. They create data for their side to say see all that other stuff showing Trump falling is BS. Those "libs" and their BS polling. Big guy is fine.
Simon, I'm very encouraged by polls showing Trump in the 30s because, as I've said, I think he has a strong base of 30-something percent of cult members. So if he's down to just the cult, Republicans are in trouble. You can maybe win a primary with 30% cult members, but not a general election.
In VA, Winsome Sears is firing and shuffling campaign staff and major funding groups are cutting her loose, having already decided she's going to lose. I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters today because we need to win Virginia by BIG margins.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to thank them for keeping Epstein front and center and to ask them to do everything they can to stop Trump's illegal tariffs.
Shapiro interview on the economy was enlightening. The change in the poverty percentages over the century were astounding and a good reason to be concerned for once that the deficit does matter and shifting wealth will have generational impacts.
There is very little question that America was its most prosperous and wealth and opportunity was more broadly shared under Biden than at any time in American history.
I am a daily reader of Simon's posts and find hope in what he writes. I've been doing grassroots electoral work since 2008 and continue to organize and facilitate events, so not new to this arena. I call my 2 Dem Senators and Dem Rep most days with a brief message of support and gratitude. Recent calls are about rejecting Bove, Piero and other justice and judicial nominees, and about a general push back on the rampant corruption which is part of everything toxic T and his minions do. I often use Simon's suggestions as guidance. I keep it brief.
I'm totally fine with supporting the Dem party and its candidates as that is the vehicle we have. But I think Dems need to find simpler ways to communicate with voters. Some of our pols are terrific at this, but overall, as Simon says the party is not yet where we need to be. I recognize that every candidate needs to be authentically themselves, that districts in Brooklyn are not the same as Ohio, and one doesn't have to agree with every position of a given candidate. But, they almost all need to be more direct, less wonky and less wordy. Like her or not, I think Rachel Bitcofer has a point about how to connect and message with voters. Dems need a simple positive agenda as well as direct opposition to what is happening- the cruelty, the corruption and the shamelss destruction of so much here and elsewhere. Rinse and repeat every single day everywhere.
Down the road, I think Democrats need to think seriously about how to talk about taxation. I feel one of the major reasons Trump won was that the wealthy/corporate class wanted the tax cuts and did not embrace Democratic plans to tax capital gains, etc. Ever since Reagan introduced trickle down, taxation has been politically challenging. But we have a massive debt that will impact future generations. I think Democrats need to find a way to discuss how to make taxation effective and fair. The Republican way is leading us towards ruin.
Just a comment on Trump's health. It is reasonable for us to say that Trump does not look well, but I was very disturbed by the number of people on this week's call who were making diagnoses and saying he looked like what their parent or friend looked like when they were dying of congestive heart failure. Please don't contribute to unqualified/nonmedical folks making diagnoses. I am a medical professional, and I know that swollen legs are very common and not by themselves indicative of a grim prognosis for someone's health. Let's stick to the facts, please.
Pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell would be political suicide. The fact that Trump would even consider it demonstrates to me the degree to which he fundamentally misunderstands the fact that some people have principles. He was perfectly happy to court the followers of Kash Patel and Dan Bongino's podcasts, but can't comprehend that they actually cared about the truth of the Epstein case. It baffles him, because he is completely transactional in nature.
I really wish it would be political suicide, but I don't think it would be so--at least not immediately. NewsMax is already describing Maxwell as a "victim" of Epstein's or a victim of the process--not a co-conspirator who groomed and raped hundreds of children and women. Other right-wing propaganda echo chambers will run with that, too. Positioning Maxwell as a "victim," although patently ridiculous, provides the thinnest of pretexts to rationalize a pardon; Charlie Kirk and other MAGA minions will voraciously gobble it up and regurgitate it all over the Manosphere. Remember, too, Trump fired Maureen Comey who prosecuted Maxwell (and Diddy), hinting at prosecutorial misconduct as a justification. Maxwell's likely part in the deal with the devil is to selectively forget about Trump's involvement and possibly flag stuff in whatever evidence or materials Blanche purportedly gave her today. She was seen returning to the prison with a large box of something. MAGA fuhrer will slightly change his language from "it's all a hoax" to "the part about me is a hoax" and Maxwell will subtly imply and maybe even explicitly affirm that in whatever testimony she provides to representatives in the House, assuming they don't vote to rescind the subpoena. As Senator Mullin (R-Oklahoma) admitted, giving the American public the consummate example of giving away the game, this--the House recessing, senators rejecting motions, etc--has all been "cover" for Trump: https://newrepublic.com/post/198410/republican-senator-mullin-killed-epstein-resolution-give-trump-cover
They want to give him time to concoct plausible deniability and sanitize whatever small portion of files they ultimately release to the public.
Giving Maxwell a pardon, though, could backfire spectacularly, which is why it could be political suicide later. What is clear is that survivors of Eptstein's and Maxwell's heinous crimes demand justice--as we all should. A pardon of a prolific trafficker of children and women would be so egregiously dismissive of their crimes, so abundantly self-serving for MAGA fuhrer that survivors, who have heretofore feared for their lives or needed to maintain anonymity for their own healing process, come forward to implicate MAGA fuhrer and Maxwell. Then, maybe, the cover up would be MAGA fuhrer's proverbial Watergate.
In all honesty, I think that MAGA's followers already know he likely raped and sexually assaulted minors; they just don't care, and they desperately want a pretense that allows them to avoid explicitly supporting sex trafficking.
You may well be right. My crystal ball came broken in the box -- I should have known better than to buy from Amazon! But I remain optimistic that the dam is starting to burst and that the more Trump tries to manipulate the narrative and cover up the truth, the worse it will get for him.
If Trump has dipped below 40% and polling truly is the coin of the realm, at what point, if ever, can we expect the Congress to start fulfilling its Constitutional duty?
Will call Booker & Kim regarding Alina Habba and the grotesquely unqualified Jeanine Pirro. I remember Pirro from her Westchester County days. How far she has fallen is breathtakingly pathetic.
"at what point, if ever, can we expect the Congress to start fulfilling its Constitutional duty?"
Sorry... I had to keep reading and re-reading this. Thinking... and reading again. Wow.
OK, in Article Two, the words go like this -- the president must "take care that the laws be faithfully executed." -- (Section 3).
One of Congress's sacred duties is to ensure the president is doing just that. But we know this has all broken down.
And so, the main question has to be this one: "When can we expect that WE the People will rise up to demand faithful representation?" THAT is the $64,000 question. The Ninth Amendment holds the answer, in my view.
Simon and Lincoln, whatever you're doing to make the YouTube videos more widely viewed -- wow! No that long ago, Simon's videos were getting 500 views, and now are getting 50,000 views.
Obviously they can't do anything with Kat Abugazaleh until she either wins or loses the primary, but she would a real asset here. We just watched a fundraiser she did, and she's smart, funny, and personable.
In our standing up for science we should take note of the unanimous comprehensive decision of the International Court of justice on climate change which ruled in an advisory opinion that all states have a duty to: 1) act to prevent climate change, 2) big polluters have to help lower and middle income countries adapt and 3) fossil fuel subsidies might be illegal. It 133 pages so there is much more in it. But even as an advisory opinion it is ammunition to stand up for science.
I believe this is about the same ruling, and may have a less stringent pay wall (also, Wired is doing great work these days and is well worth supporting!).
It's a huge deal to have this advisory ruling that positions a healthy environment as a human right globally, including for island nations at risk for submersion by rising seas.
Reposting this interview from late iin the day a couple days ago
Federalism is a bit of a misnomer based on the 10th amendment. Everything not spelled out for federal control is left to the states. That is why our Democratic AGs have been so powerful in resisting Trumpism in the courts. If you are not familiar with California AG Rob Bonta, this is a fantastic introduction. He is an immigrant from the Phillipines. He talks of the "Three Cs" to win the day; Crowds, Courts and Courage.
Very encouraging signs, though I am nervous about the redistricting arms race starting in Texas and extending to Ohio and Missouri.
With the help of the daughter of the late Tom Hofeller, I have been examining the files and their stories behind how they remade the nation's maps through racial gerrymandering. What the Hofeller Files show according to all the existing reports is that the GOP mapmakers and consultants knew precisely how to carve up and pack non-white voters into districts that diluted their voting share and power. They knew the intricate link between race, geography, and party (especially in the South and Midwest).
Hofeller did work across the country, including in Texas & Ohio, among other places. We need to further reexamine that work and see what his associates are doing now i.e Dale Oldham, Doug Johnson, and Trey Trainor so we can challenge these gerrymandered maps coming down the pike.
Yup, we need to move on this Mike, and fast. Check out Michael's work on this, from The Political Pulse of America: https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/promoting-providence-ri-political.
Thoughts on this new WSJ poll, which has him at 46%? The tone of this piece is bizarre, I think, as it seems to celebrate this as some kind of strength when weighed against...himself.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-approval-rating-poll-july-2025-745b0f5f?mod=hp_lead_pos3
The Republican side of this poll is Trump's pollster, Tony Fabrizio, who happens to deliver the very message Trump wants to convey right now. It is 6 points better for Trump than the current working average for Trump on Strength in Numbers. One poll. The lionshare of the rest show things far worse for him.
Helpful. Thanks. I found the celebratory tone really bizarre, Even with this poll, it is down at least 5-6% in six months....hardly cause to be excited.
Trump's pollster just saved his job and helped the WSJ weather the storm the Epstein storm they created. What is hard to understand is why the Dem pollster Anzalone played along with the game.
And as I have said here they see polling as part of the info domain, and work it hard, as they do all aspects of the info domain. They create data for their side to say see all that other stuff showing Trump falling is BS. Those "libs" and their BS polling. Big guy is fine.
Thanks, Simon.
The powerful quote from Lincoln is from a message to Congress, not his second inaugural address.
Thank you. Fixed in the online version. Made some mistakes today. Probably needed one last edit.
I thought so. Did not sound familiar from Lincoln Memorial engraving, which I've read many times. :)
Simon, I'm very encouraged by polls showing Trump in the 30s because, as I've said, I think he has a strong base of 30-something percent of cult members. So if he's down to just the cult, Republicans are in trouble. You can maybe win a primary with 30% cult members, but not a general election.
In VA, Winsome Sears is firing and shuffling campaign staff and major funding groups are cutting her loose, having already decided she's going to lose. I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters today because we need to win Virginia by BIG margins.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to thank them for keeping Epstein front and center and to ask them to do everything they can to stop Trump's illegal tariffs.
Great work, CG!
think maga cult base is 25% max
One thing that will definitely raise concerns about the authoritarianism and corruption of this administration is if Maxwell is pardoned.
OMG, that “Curb Your Authoritarianism” clip is hilarious! I'll have the theme song playing in my head the rest of the day, but it's worth it.
Shapiro interview on the economy was enlightening. The change in the poverty percentages over the century were astounding and a good reason to be concerned for once that the deficit does matter and shifting wealth will have generational impacts.
There is very little question that America was its most prosperous and wealth and opportunity was more broadly shared under Biden than at any time in American history.
I agree!
The CNN crawl also said protests are being planned during Trump's Scotland visit.
I am a daily reader of Simon's posts and find hope in what he writes. I've been doing grassroots electoral work since 2008 and continue to organize and facilitate events, so not new to this arena. I call my 2 Dem Senators and Dem Rep most days with a brief message of support and gratitude. Recent calls are about rejecting Bove, Piero and other justice and judicial nominees, and about a general push back on the rampant corruption which is part of everything toxic T and his minions do. I often use Simon's suggestions as guidance. I keep it brief.
I'm totally fine with supporting the Dem party and its candidates as that is the vehicle we have. But I think Dems need to find simpler ways to communicate with voters. Some of our pols are terrific at this, but overall, as Simon says the party is not yet where we need to be. I recognize that every candidate needs to be authentically themselves, that districts in Brooklyn are not the same as Ohio, and one doesn't have to agree with every position of a given candidate. But, they almost all need to be more direct, less wonky and less wordy. Like her or not, I think Rachel Bitcofer has a point about how to connect and message with voters. Dems need a simple positive agenda as well as direct opposition to what is happening- the cruelty, the corruption and the shamelss destruction of so much here and elsewhere. Rinse and repeat every single day everywhere.
Down the road, I think Democrats need to think seriously about how to talk about taxation. I feel one of the major reasons Trump won was that the wealthy/corporate class wanted the tax cuts and did not embrace Democratic plans to tax capital gains, etc. Ever since Reagan introduced trickle down, taxation has been politically challenging. But we have a massive debt that will impact future generations. I think Democrats need to find a way to discuss how to make taxation effective and fair. The Republican way is leading us towards ruin.
Just a comment on Trump's health. It is reasonable for us to say that Trump does not look well, but I was very disturbed by the number of people on this week's call who were making diagnoses and saying he looked like what their parent or friend looked like when they were dying of congestive heart failure. Please don't contribute to unqualified/nonmedical folks making diagnoses. I am a medical professional, and I know that swollen legs are very common and not by themselves indicative of a grim prognosis for someone's health. Let's stick to the facts, please.
Pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell would be political suicide. The fact that Trump would even consider it demonstrates to me the degree to which he fundamentally misunderstands the fact that some people have principles. He was perfectly happy to court the followers of Kash Patel and Dan Bongino's podcasts, but can't comprehend that they actually cared about the truth of the Epstein case. It baffles him, because he is completely transactional in nature.
"Pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell would be political suicide."
I'd love to hear someone describe how that suicide would play out. Impeachment?
I go back to the time he physically mocked a disabled person and thought that would be the end.
I really wish it would be political suicide, but I don't think it would be so--at least not immediately. NewsMax is already describing Maxwell as a "victim" of Epstein's or a victim of the process--not a co-conspirator who groomed and raped hundreds of children and women. Other right-wing propaganda echo chambers will run with that, too. Positioning Maxwell as a "victim," although patently ridiculous, provides the thinnest of pretexts to rationalize a pardon; Charlie Kirk and other MAGA minions will voraciously gobble it up and regurgitate it all over the Manosphere. Remember, too, Trump fired Maureen Comey who prosecuted Maxwell (and Diddy), hinting at prosecutorial misconduct as a justification. Maxwell's likely part in the deal with the devil is to selectively forget about Trump's involvement and possibly flag stuff in whatever evidence or materials Blanche purportedly gave her today. She was seen returning to the prison with a large box of something. MAGA fuhrer will slightly change his language from "it's all a hoax" to "the part about me is a hoax" and Maxwell will subtly imply and maybe even explicitly affirm that in whatever testimony she provides to representatives in the House, assuming they don't vote to rescind the subpoena. As Senator Mullin (R-Oklahoma) admitted, giving the American public the consummate example of giving away the game, this--the House recessing, senators rejecting motions, etc--has all been "cover" for Trump: https://newrepublic.com/post/198410/republican-senator-mullin-killed-epstein-resolution-give-trump-cover
They want to give him time to concoct plausible deniability and sanitize whatever small portion of files they ultimately release to the public.
Giving Maxwell a pardon, though, could backfire spectacularly, which is why it could be political suicide later. What is clear is that survivors of Eptstein's and Maxwell's heinous crimes demand justice--as we all should. A pardon of a prolific trafficker of children and women would be so egregiously dismissive of their crimes, so abundantly self-serving for MAGA fuhrer that survivors, who have heretofore feared for their lives or needed to maintain anonymity for their own healing process, come forward to implicate MAGA fuhrer and Maxwell. Then, maybe, the cover up would be MAGA fuhrer's proverbial Watergate.
In all honesty, I think that MAGA's followers already know he likely raped and sexually assaulted minors; they just don't care, and they desperately want a pretense that allows them to avoid explicitly supporting sex trafficking.
You may well be right. My crystal ball came broken in the box -- I should have known better than to buy from Amazon! But I remain optimistic that the dam is starting to burst and that the more Trump tries to manipulate the narrative and cover up the truth, the worse it will get for him.
If Trump has dipped below 40% and polling truly is the coin of the realm, at what point, if ever, can we expect the Congress to start fulfilling its Constitutional duty?
Thoughts on this NYT’s counter-narrative?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/07/24/opinion/minority-voters-trump-right.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Will call Booker & Kim regarding Alina Habba and the grotesquely unqualified Jeanine Pirro. I remember Pirro from her Westchester County days. How far she has fallen is breathtakingly pathetic.
"How far she has fallen..." and we once called Rudy Giuliani "America's Mayor."
"at what point, if ever, can we expect the Congress to start fulfilling its Constitutional duty?"
Sorry... I had to keep reading and re-reading this. Thinking... and reading again. Wow.
OK, in Article Two, the words go like this -- the president must "take care that the laws be faithfully executed." -- (Section 3).
One of Congress's sacred duties is to ensure the president is doing just that. But we know this has all broken down.
And so, the main question has to be this one: "When can we expect that WE the People will rise up to demand faithful representation?" THAT is the $64,000 question. The Ninth Amendment holds the answer, in my view.
Thomas, you seem a little overamped this afternoon.....
Well... I'm confronted with the reality of 219 traitors* sitting in our People's House. (People unfaithful to their Oath and duty.)
Simon and Lincoln, whatever you're doing to make the YouTube videos more widely viewed -- wow! No that long ago, Simon's videos were getting 500 views, and now are getting 50,000 views.
That’s amazing! The DNC too needs to up its game. Perhaps bring in an established heavyweight such as Brian Tyler Cohen.
Obviously they can't do anything with Kat Abugazaleh until she either wins or loses the primary, but she would a real asset here. We just watched a fundraiser she did, and she's smart, funny, and personable.
You want to go to https://open.substack.com/pub/statuskuo/p/targeting-the-comics?r=4hcbuf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false to read this. It will be eye opening.
This is Jay Kuo on the searing audacity of South Park and the power of comedians in times of authoritarianism. Great essay.
In our standing up for science we should take note of the unanimous comprehensive decision of the International Court of justice on climate change which ruled in an advisory opinion that all states have a duty to: 1) act to prevent climate change, 2) big polluters have to help lower and middle income countries adapt and 3) fossil fuel subsidies might be illegal. It 133 pages so there is much more in it. But even as an advisory opinion it is ammunition to stand up for science.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/climate/icj-hague-climate-change.html
I believe this is about the same ruling, and may have a less stringent pay wall (also, Wired is doing great work these days and is well worth supporting!).
It's a huge deal to have this advisory ruling that positions a healthy environment as a human right globally, including for island nations at risk for submersion by rising seas.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-icj-rules-failing-to-combat-climate-could-be-a-violation-of-international-law/
This decision follows the decision of the InterAmerican court on Human Rights decision earlier this month:https://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2025/07/08/a-blueprint-for-rights-based-climate-action-the-inter-american-court-of-human-rights-advisory-opinion-on-the-climate-emergency/
And the series od decision coming out of the EU:
1) https://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2025/05/23/a-landmark-climate-ruling-from-europe-the-efta-court-declares-scope-3-emissions-must-be-assessed-before-oil-project-approvals/
2)https://www.coe.int/en/web/portal/-/three-climate-change-rulings-from-the-european-court-of-human-rights
Reposting this interview from late iin the day a couple days ago
Federalism is a bit of a misnomer based on the 10th amendment. Everything not spelled out for federal control is left to the states. That is why our Democratic AGs have been so powerful in resisting Trumpism in the courts. If you are not familiar with California AG Rob Bonta, this is a fantastic introduction. He is an immigrant from the Phillipines. He talks of the "Three Cs" to win the day; Crowds, Courts and Courage.
Perhaps Simon can get him on Hopium.
Here is AG Rob Bonta interviewed by Adam Klasfeld on his 34th lawsuit v. the Trump administration in the first 26 weeks. https://www.allrisenews.com/p/rob-bonta-substack-live-lawsuits?utm_source=live-stream-redirect&triedRedirect=true