Back At It

The Monday Hopium roundup. Welcome new subscribers!

Friends,

I am coming back to the States today from a much-needed getaway. In Rome I walked the Forum and other ancient sites, something that always grounds me, reminds me of the arc of our own struggle to ensure freedom and democracy prevail. In France and Italy I took European high-speed trains, always a thrill for rail-starved Americans. In London I spent time with Labour Party leaders, and came away hopeful about their chances in their election next year. Joyfully, I also caught some top flight soccer/football in both Italy and London (AC Milan, Lazio, Chelsea and Arsenal/Man U). It was a good and restorative trip, and I will be sharing more about it in the coming weeks

This morning we hit our goal for our late summer membership drive - thank you, everyone!!!!!!!! That 10% discount on an annual Hopium subscription helped bring in over 300 people so far. These new resources will allow me to bring on help to improve the performance and content here - thanks to everyone who signed up, and to those who worked to bring people in. The 10% discount expires tonight so if you thinking about upgrading to a paid subscription now is a great time to do it.

In the coming days we will start to talk about the work we need to do, together, this fall. If you are looking for advice right now on what you can be doing check out our Hopium wide thread of members sharing the projects they are working on - it’s inspiring, exciting stuff.

On Friday we got another good jobs report. On this Labor Day, we do have to marvel a bit at the grit and resilience of the American people these last few years. COVID, threats to our democracy, global inflation due to Russia and OPEC, rising interest rates, extreme weather, gun violence and yet our economy just keeps creating jobs, wages continue to rise, new businesses keep getting formed at record levels - it’s just incredible how far we’ve come since January of 2021, and how well we as a nation have navigated these choppy waters, better than any G7 nation. As Joe Biden says in his new television ad, “It’s the American people who are the heroes of this story.” No doubt about that on this Labor Day.

I also want to note the sudden passing of Bill Richardson, a good friend and committed public servant. I haven’t yet found the words to describe this larger-than-life leader, but he was a remarkable man and will be deeply, deeply missed.

Now to our Monday roundup……..

The Economy is Strong, Inflation is Down, There Is No Recession On The Horizon And America Is A Global Leader on Climate Once Again

• The September Jobs Report - The Remarkable Strenght, Resilience of the US Economy and American People (New)

• On The Energy Transition, Reasons for Optimism

• Another Good Inflation Report

• The Economy Is In The Midst of Something Wonderful (and Unexpected)

2023 Election and Polling Analysis - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them

• My August Political Briefing and Discussion (great orientation for new subscribers)

• Poll and Data Roundup - Dobbs and Treason

• Some Thoughts on 3rd Party/Rogue Party Efforts

• 57-43 - Dems Keep Winning!!!!- (Ohio)

• Notes on Polling, 18 Months Out

Biden Campaign Comms and Ads - Off To A Very Strong Start

• It’s The American People Who Are the Heroes Of This Story

• The Importance Of Winning The Economic Argument This Year

• Biden’s Strong Launch, Day 2 (more really good ads)

Getting to 55 and The Importance of The Youth Vote

• Smoothing the On-Ramp To Democracy: Voter Registration As A Staple of American High Schools - By Laura Brill (New)

• Get to 55, Expanding Our Coalition, The Youth Opportunity

• Interview with Harvard’s John Della Volpe on The Youth Vote

• Interview with the Civics Center Laura Brill and Expanding Youth Voter Registration

Our Democratic Grassroots Is Stronger Than It’s Even Been/Becoming An Info Warrior for Democracy/Getting Louder/The Democratic Party Is Strong

• Sharing Your Work With Others in The Hopium Community (Fun, Exciting and Inspiring)

• Our Muscular Grassroots And Our Need To Get Louder and Become Info Warriors (short video)

• Not Obeying in Advance

Republicans Are Saddled With Trump, MAGA, Dobbs and Treason

• Republicans Debate, and Get Arrested

• We Cannot Look Away From What the GOP Has Become

• Notes on the 19 Republicans Indicted in Georgia

• The Right-Wing Narrative About Biden Is Collapsing

Hopium Chronicles Basics

• What I Mean By Hopium (Audio)

• With Democrats Things Get Better - August, 2023

• Welcome To My New Home, Hopium Chronicles

• Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong.

…….

Finally, here’s how Ron Brownstein of CNN and The Atlantic wrote about this moment and our emerging opportunity:

Simon Rosenberg, the long-time Democratic strategist who was proven right as the most prominent public skeptic of the “red wave” theory in 2022, argues that Trump, in particular, is unlikely to match his 47% of the vote from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again. “We are starting at a place where it is far more likely in my mind that he gets to 45% than he gets to 49%,” Rosenberg said. “And if he gets to 45%, we have the opportunity to get up to 55%. The key for Democrats is we have to imagine growing and expanding our coalition for it to happen.”

Beyond the personal doubts about Trump among voters outside the GOP coalition, Democrats such as Rosenberg and Anzalone see several other factors that give Biden a chance to widen his winning margin from the last election. Perhaps the most important of those are the slowdown in inflation, continued strength of the job market, and signs of accelerating recovery in the stock market – all of which are already stirring some gains in consumer confidence. Democrats are encouraged as well by recent declines in the number of undocumented immigrants attempting to cross the Southern border and the crime rate in big cities – two issues on which polls show substantial disappointment in Biden’s performance.

Another change since 2020 is the broad public backlash, especially in Democratic-leaning and swing states, against the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion, which Trump has directly claimed credit for engineering through his nominations to the court. Finally, compared to 2020, the electorate in 2024 will likely include significantly more young people in Generation Z, a group that is preponderantly supporting Democrats, and fewer Whites without a college degree, now the GOP’s best group.

All of these factors, Rosenberg said, create “an opportunity” for Democrats to amass a bigger majority next year than most consider possible. But to get there, he argues, the party will need to think bigger, particularly in its efforts to mobilize younger voters aging into the electorate. “It’s a man on the moon kind of mindset,” Rosenberg said. “We have to want to go there to get there. We have to build a strategy to take away political real estate from the Republicans because they are giving us the opportunity to take it away from them.”

Many Republican strategists privately agree that the combined effect of the January 6 insurrection and the court’s abortion decision will make it difficult for Trump to expand his support from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again.

Keep working hard all, and Happy Labour Day - Simon