205 Comments
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Sep 27
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Jarrod Emerson's avatar

Another reason why certain "metrics" can't be taken as gospel

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Jane1908's avatar

Thank you for the really good article from The New Republic. Maybe it's not really the economy, but how voters think about their future. Kamala is really making that her central mantra. Today, Consumer Confidence is at a 5 month high (70%) and for what it is worth, the majority of voters think Harris is going to win.

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Sep 27
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Mary Ann Brown's avatar

YES!!

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Morton Kaplan's avatar

CNN: Stein up 17 in NC, Kamala tied. Up eleven in Blue dot.

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Sep 27Edited
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Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

My guess is that both Josh Stein and DJT are well known to NC voters. So is Robinson, and not in a good way. Harris isn't as well known -- yet. I expect her numbers will come up as a result of her campaigning in that state, although much depends on whether at least some Trump diehards can bring themselves to vote for a woman of color.

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Daniel Solomon's avatar

W/out considering new registrations as "likely."

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Jason R Peck's avatar

Republicans always support offensive guys like Mark Robinson because they aren't "politically correct" and they say what's on their mind.

But at the end of the day, they're not "non-PC," they're just offensive. And what's on their mind is sick.

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Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

They also tend to think that this is what Black men are really like, offensive and/or a little addled (e.g., Herschel Walker). Tim Scott OTOH seems like a decent enough guy, apart from being a Republican, but when it comes to candidates of color, the GOP does not have a deep bench.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Trump may well congratulate himself by having 100 percent backing from the Black Nazis, but this demographic really doesn’t extend much beyond Mark Robinson and Kanye West.

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Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

Well, if you extend it to include non-Nazis, you've got the likes of Allen West and Clarence Thomas. You've also got the Democratic campaign operatives who are said to be worried about young Black men.

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Runfastandwin's avatar

Scott is as odious as the rest of them...

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Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

Maybe he's just looks better by comparison.

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Dottie Stone's avatar

Tim Scott lies through his teeth. He is not a descent man. He kissed the ring of trump.

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RP2112's avatar

Love this comment. Saying what's on your mind isn't a virtue if what's on your mind is flagrantly false, unverifiable, illogical, irrational, and completely nonconstructive.

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Jason R Peck's avatar

It's this whole right-wing PC backlash bullshit -- the anti-PC crusade made certain people think being awful is somehow noble.

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ArcticStones's avatar

"Our campaign continues to gain momentum like never before."

– Mark Robinson

Yup, that’s what happens when you are in free fall – you have great momentum. At least briefly.

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Natalia Ilyin's avatar

AHAHHAAHAHAHAHAH you made my morning.

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fourfreedomsfan's avatar

They're saying nobody has ever seen anything like it.

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Patrick's avatar

He's even appropriating Trump's speech patterns.

As you said, momentum goes two different directions.

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Stephen Sepaniak's avatar

How can it continue to do something it’s never done before?

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Donald Lipkis's avatar

I always feel so much better after reading your Substack. You are the voice of optimism.

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Russell Owens's avatar

Good polling, economic news, registration and early voting. Things are looking good and each day Simon and Hopium are helping Harris/Walz to get over the line. Thank you all of you, with respect and affection.

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Daniel Solomon's avatar

Still can make it a blue tsunami.

https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/

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Ellen Thomas's avatar

This is hearsay, obviously, but I have a friend with connections with high-up Republicans in Indiana, and my friend says they are starting to worry about whether Trump can hold the state. Does that even seem possible?

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Russell Owens's avatar

The theme of this election is 'JOY' and Indiana going blue would be JOY to the power of JOY!!!

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Deborah Potter's avatar

It is all possible, and we are making it happen.

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Peter Bruce's avatar

The map of swing states certainly seems expandable to our advantage. Maybe Indiana, but more likely Iowa seems a possibility, where the reliable Des Moines Register poll found Harris behind by only 4 %. Boding especially well is the organizational infrastructure Obama, Plouffe, and co. built over a year in Iowa as the basis for their surprise victory over Hillary in the '08 Iowa's caucuses. Given the Iowa win's vital role in making a huge splash by winning what was then the first nominating contest in the DP's gauntlet, and that win's creation by the concentration of resources OFA put into Iowa for roughly a year, there should be plenty of potential former OFA (and Hillary) activists and donors there that Harris/Walz (and Plouffe) could call on in this election, which in so many ways seems to echo Obama's first presidential win.

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Ctkat1's avatar

There’s been some very good polling for the Democratic candidate for governor (within 3 points of Mike Braun, which is pretty stunning). That is likely worrying the GOP, though Trump is polling well ahead of Mike Braun.

We’ll see!!

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Fisher's avatar

Yes. Obama won it, why not. Just visited the Dunes national park on Lake Michigan there on the way to Chicago; what an awesome sight. Passed through South Bend, former home of Mayor Pete.

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Ellen Thomas's avatar

I went to the Dunes for this first time this Spring. Fantastic place--and an easy train ride from Chicago right to the park!

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Patrick's avatar

I don't know, but the fact that they are worried about it is the kind of sign that we will win enough states to take this.

I thought the Ann Selzer poll in Iowa which was Trump +4 was a pretty strong indication that Harris was doing very well, considering it was Trump +8 in 2020.

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Chris Dwyer's avatar

National Dems to ship $2.5M to state parties, aiming beyond presidential battleground

“With the new grants, national Democrats will have contributed to all 57 state and territorial chapters for the first time in a presidential cycle, according to the party.”

https://penncapital-star.com/election-2024/national-dems-to-ship-2-5m-to-state-parties-aiming-beyond-presidential-battlegrounds/

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Karen Desjardin's avatar

I believe their worry is related not only to the data, but in the lack of a ground game. More and more stories are being reported concerning a lack of GOTV effort on the part of the GOP. It's as if Lara Trump as the head of the RNC is not up to the job. (Sarcasm, there.) In the Broadway musical of the 2024 election, she will be the delusional lounge singer convinced of her own talent.

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ArcticStones's avatar

For a fraction of a second, I misread that as "convicted of her own talent".

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Cindy H's avatar

😂 You are quite the funny this morning 😂

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Janet HB's avatar

😂

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Patrick's avatar

It's almost as if she's more interested in her autotuner.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Coulda fooled me. Lara seems tone-deaf to America’s voters as well as music.

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Mike Hammer's avatar

For what it’s worth here in southern Maine there’s overwhelming Harris signs.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Nauseatingly many Trump signs up here in Franklin County, even though there are a lot of Harris-Walz signs as well. I do wonder if Trump will once again win ME-02 and whether Jared Golden might lose his seat to Austin Theriault?

I know Golden is better but by God he can be exasperating! For example when he twice voted for the SAVE ACT.

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Frederick Warren's avatar

I wouldn't mind losing Golden this year and coming back with Shenna Bellows in 2026, IF she passes on the Gov's open seat. She'd have a waltz to the governorship, I'd think. Any thoughts from you two here???

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ArcticStones's avatar

First, I know far too little about Shenna Bellows or the rest of Maine’s Democratic Party.

We need to flip the House – and I think Democrats will do so with a solid margin. Obviously I’ll take Golden if our majority depends on it. But I would really hate for Jared Golden or a small group of similarly-minded Dem representatives to gain Manchin-like influence in the House.

My wife and I worked to get Jared Golden elected that first time. Maybe Golden is as good as it gets in Me-02, but we’re simply unable to find the inspiration to promote his re-election.

This year, my postcard-writing and focus has been mostly on North Carolina.

PS. We were ecstatic when Governor Janet Mills replaced Paul LePage, and likewise when she trounced his recent re-election effort!

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Frederick Warren's avatar

We were pulling for St. John in the initial Dem primary against Golden. Jared has been a lost soul, imho, in his quest to appear to be something other than a real Democrat. This seat will NOT matter for Dems to gain majority ....

We will win the House by at least 15 seats, due to our tremendous advantages:

momentum;

top-of-the-ticket disparity between sanity vs. felony verdicts;

financial advantages, big $$$ advantage for us;

* NEW VOTER REGISTRATION ADVANTAGES, esp with Gen Z voters;

affects of cultural influencers like Taylor Swift, Oprah, and Liz Chaney;

* Women's vote and gender imbalance with far greater female turnout;

* STATE-WIDE REFERENDUM votes on reproductive freedom in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada and South Dakota. I'd highlight AZ, FL, MD, MO, NE and NV for positive affect for Democratic turnout for races for US Senate and Harris/Walz.

THIS WILL NOT BE A CLOSE election, due to current state-wide polling shown here, and with the advantages I have outlined above.

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ArcticStones's avatar

The Montana Senate race has been bugging me. 538 shows two polls from RMG Research:

August 15: Tester +5

September 24: Sheehy +7

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/

That’s a 12-point swing in just over a month, from the same pollster! Such a huge swing just doesn’t seem credible to me. Any thoughts?

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Deborah Potter's avatar

I see a swing toward reality in the political discussion: Kamala is winning. That's because we are fighting joyfully.

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Fisher's avatar

It's Ras. He puts a thumb on the scale.

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Beth Kephart's avatar

Tester sounds quietly confident whenever I see him. Of course he has to sound that way. But he is a man who knows how to run the game in his state.

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RP2112's avatar

I'm not a statistician, but I use stats a fair amount. Huge swings like that usually indicate that one population was over-sampled the first time and under-sampled the second. It's not necessarily devious or wrong, it's just the way the sample population was constructed in each case. Another reason is what assumptions the poll made-- was it assuming a higher D turnout the first time, but then assumed a higher R turnout the second? If so, what was that based on? Some measure of enthusiasm/propensity/likeliness to vote by one group or the other? Usually, if the poll is a true "good faith" effort, you can take the average and it gets it closer to what's probably real. In this case, it would be a statistical tie. But who knows what's going on with RMG?

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

No serious pollster would ever release two polls like that back to back. It's an impossibility, and the most obvious explanation is fuckery.

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RP2112's avatar

Probably true. But Ann Seltzer released back to back polls in Iowa where Trump went from +18 against Biden to +4 against Harris. 14-point swing. However, she gave a reason: much higher enthusiasm from women and young voters accounted for the swing. That was my only point-- there can be reasons for big swings other than fuckery in very respected pollsters. Not saying at all this is the case in RMG-- it may 100% be fuckery, and I'll defer to your opinion on that. In any case, RMG or any pollster should absolutely provide explanations for any big swings they report.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

that's because we had a new candidate and the race changed. National polls have all swung at least 6 to 7 points to us over several months. This is a 12 point swing in a race where nothing has happened in a single month. It's literally made up. It's an impossibility, particularly when national polls are moving towards us.

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RP2112's avatar

Agree 100%, and that was my point. A poll with a huge swing should always provide an explanation (both you and Seltzer provided one for Seltzer's swing). In this case, RMG did not, and so I absolutely defer to your opinion on fuckery, as you know it when you see it. I don't, but I do think there are explanations other than fuckery for strange polling in general.

I agree general directionality makes it hard to accept that the RMG poll(s) reflects reality, which I never said it did. I just didn't call it out as fuckery, because polling sampling errors always happen. But again, totally defer to you. Thanks.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Huge swings like that just don’t happen unless something causes them to happen. As I wrote I think poll is a red wave narrative shaping poll and should not be taken seriously.

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Steve's avatar

Crap poll in August, crap poll now. Apparently Tester and Sheehy are going to debate (Sept 30 on MT PBS) so that makes me think R's are actually a bit concerned or Sheehy wouldn't likely be debating.

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ArcticStones's avatar

That’s rather telling.

I would be very interested in a link or info on how to watch that debate.

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Steve's avatar

I hadn't even been aware that they'd debated before until this article.

(Edit: And I'm in MT)

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ArcticStones's avatar

Here is the link to their first debate, in case you’re interested.

https://www.youtube.com/live/jF3y9OGmoN0

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Chris Dwyer's avatar

DSCC Announces New Multi-Million Dollar Investment in Direct Voter Contact Programs

Today the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is announcing a new $25 million investment in direct voter contact programs across 10 states: AZ, FL, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, TX and WI.

https://www.dscc.org/news/dscc-announces-new-multi-million-dollar-investment-in-direct-voter-contact-programs/

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Gary Scharrer's avatar

Simon is so good at connecting the dots. Most folks can’t do it. Those clever and talented enough to connect the dots always help others see….

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Chris Ortolano's avatar

Bumpy polls in Arizona? The Suffolk University/USA Today poll over sampled republicans and overall conservative voters. Nothing new.

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Travis Mulhauser's avatar

Signage report from NC. I took a 10-15 minute jaunt through some semi-rural but very Red NC roads off the highway yesterday on the way to my kid's volleyball game and here is my report :

3 Jesus Signs

2 trump signs

1 confederate flag

Generally, this is just not what I was seeing in '16 and '20. On the highway there were two Robinson signs bracketing one trump sign in one of those public areas where people always stick signs and that was basically like putting a Harris sign up with trump and robinson so clearly linked

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Doreen Frances's avatar

Were there more Trump signs the last two times?

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Travis Mulhauser's avatar

Yes, massively more

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Doreen Frances's avatar

Oh wow!

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Maurice D. Harris's avatar

This just in: Trump campaign angrily alleges that Jesus signs outnumbering Trump signs in rural NC area only because "the Jesus supporters cheated!"

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ArcticStones's avatar

Jesús must be a Latino candidate, perhaps running for a seat in North Carolina’s legislature? Despite not being endorsed by Trump and being vehemently opposed by White Evangelicals, it sounds like he might score an upset and win his election.

Just two questions: Has he shown us his birth certificate and proof of American citizenship? And which party is he going to caucus with?

/s

Nobody should confuse this Jesús with the authentic Republican Jesus!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ2L-R8NgrA&t=18s

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Travis Mulhauser's avatar

Hahahahaha

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ArcticStones's avatar

McCormick – no, not the Republican challenging incumbent Senator Casey in Pennsylvania – but rather Jennifer McCormick, a good Democrat, is trailing Republican Mike Braun by just three points in Indiana’s gubernatorial race. It’s now 44-41. Given Braun’s high name recognition, this is simply stunning.

No wonder Republican campaign officials are sweating in the Hoosier State!

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Ellen Rinehart's avatar

How do you know that Trump isn't putting the money from his grifting into the campaign? Is there a real way to see that he's keeping it?

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PeachBlossom's avatar

Because, metaphorically, a dollar bill can't pass through Trump's hands without the green ink being stripped off.

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Ellen Rinehart's avatar

I guess I'm not smart enough to get that metaphor. Can't he donate to his campaign? I'm not saying I believe he is not keeping it, I just wonder if there is evidence.

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PeachBlossom's avatar

It would be totally in character for him to do so. Witness the RNC becoming a funding source for his legal bills.

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Ctkat1's avatar

Nothing is stopping him from giving to his campaign, but if he was- we’d expect to see more rallies, more ad buys, more door knocking and signs, etc.

Trump is selling a lot of crap right now as his campaign is spending less and less, so all signs point to him pocketing the money.

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Patrick's avatar

He has and always will take money from the campaign and put it into his own pockets. It only goes that way. He holds events at his properties. He's always done that.

It doesn't go from his pocket to the campaign ever.

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Karen Desjardin's avatar

There is a long pattern of Trump diverting money from campaign events to pay for his personal expenses, especially legal bills. I can't ever recall him putting money into a campaign.

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Cheryl F.'s avatar

Encouraging numbers for sure. I continue to be worried about voter suppression especially in swing states. A small lead in NC won’t do us much good if three quarters of a million people have been removed from the rolls. Anyone have information on efforts to address this?

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Karen Desjardin's avatar

I just looked up voter registration data for NC. Looks like you can register in person up to Nov. 2. Most people going to vote early would be able to register if they had been removed.

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TC's avatar

Undecided voter: "Trump is selling foreign made overpriced watches and lining his pockets with the proceeds so I need to know more about the Harris plan for the economy. I swear, I'm really undecided."

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Gordon Herzog's avatar

I'm becoming more and more convinced that these so-called "undecided" voters really just want attention. Once they make up their mind and declare it, they lose the attention.

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RP2112's avatar

My wife has a similar theory. I'll let her know she's not alone :-)

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TC's avatar

I spoke to an "undecided" and during our conversation whenever I said "COVID" he said "you mean the flu". That's is not someone that is undecided.

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fourfreedomsfan's avatar

My theory is that they don't know shit and probably won't vote.

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RP2112's avatar

Voter: I need to know more about Kamala Harris

Did you watch her convention speech? She gives her biography in it.

Voter: No

Did you go to her website? It has her detailed biography.

Voter: No. I meant I need to know more about her policies.

Did you go to her website? It has issues tabbed out individually so you can read about her policy on each one in detail. By the way, her website is her-name-dot-com. Really easy to find.

Voter: No.

Do you follow her on X/Twitter?

Voter: No.

Did you watch her CNN Interview? Her interview with Oprah? Her interview with Stephanie Rule?

Voter: No.

Did you watch the debate with Trump?

Voter: No.

Did you read summaries of the economic analyses of her policies vs Trump's done by Moody, Goldman Sachs, CBO? You know, independent analysts?

Voter: Who? No.

OK, well, let me summarize in about ten minutes what her policies on the economy, immigration, clean energy, and foreign affairs are.

Voter: Too busy, sorry.

I'm 100% for meeting people where they are, but seems like a lot of these folks are in some inaccessible parallel universe.

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Cindy H's avatar

I totally think they want attention and are probably voting Trump - especially if they are being interviewed in a diner.

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