If you listen closely, you can hear him saying something like where are my shoes. At that point, he was completely surrounded by other people, so unless someone was lobbing a bomb at the platform, Trump was protected by people who would take the bullet for him.
I thought we had agreed in this community to focus on attacking TFG and bolstering our democratic ticket no matter who. From what I understand it will all shake out in the next week or two (the sooner the better), but that it was a better idea to focus on positive, productive action than continuing to attack our own ticket. Maybe I missed the memo, but aren’t we beyond Biden bashing in here?
I’m not trashing Biden, I’m pointing out the realities of the situation in a forum where we all want the same thing. I don’t think he’s the best QB for the team, and will say so until it’s too late. I am legitimately angry at him for putting us in this position, and for his post debate responses. I am not for Joe, I am for winning. If it winds up he stays on, I’ll shut up. Until then, I don’t like where we are or how he’s managing things and it’s okay to say so
And you're wrong doing your "just asking questions" thing here, which yes, was indeed explicitly one of the things that Simon said Thursday night folks could go do somewhere else, not here. We're not discussing it here.
Because. we. here. have. no. say. in. the. matter. now. Only President Joe does.
No (utterly futile) movement to change that will originate - nor be permitted to take hold - here. The More that we are here to Do doesn't include whatever... this... is (sure looks like Worry) that you think you're doing.
I’m not trying to start a movement - I’m discussing what we’re all thinking about. He’s not campaigning this weekend, but is holding calls with DEM congressional groups and angering them further by being unable to articulate a winning plan. Kamala and Shapiro are campaigning in PA today. Those two are a good example of the potential this party has beyond Biden and I have zero idea why ppl continue to cling to the idea that he is the only way. That’s just simply not true
Post assassination attempt - Wondering if - with this assassination attempt on Trump - the Dems can unite (with Republicans too) in promoting a call against gun violence and linking this to our concern about Jan 6? In other words, an attempt to turn this potentially politically explosive event - that supports Trump and reinforces his self-mythologizing - against him?
I'm sorry but I totally disagree with you about discussing Joe Biden remaining our candidate, and you are badly mischaracterizing what Simon said about talking about it. If you watched his video he said, "It is ok for us to discuss the impact of his debate performance because it's affected his standing and affected the polls. It's a reality we have to deal with." And, "It is ok for us to be discussing whether Joe Biden is the best candidate in this election." He also said he's "most disappointed by people feeling it's illegitimate to be having this conversation. It's an absurdity and people have to grow up a little bit around here.'" So when you say, "We're not discussing it here" that's the exact opposite of what Simon said in his video. In fact, If you watched it he spent the entire first part explaining why it's a completely legitimate and extremely important issue to discuss.
It’s trump’s fervent hope that Biden stays on bc Biden gives trump the best chance of winning. He built his entire operation to beat Biden and trump’s campaign doesn’t work against literally anybody else.
Not so sure about that. I think Trump would love to run against Kamala Harris. Why? This is the most "gendered" election ever, with dramatic differences between how men and women are voting. In fact, the RNC planners and designers are working hard to make this their most *macho* convention ever.
Good, then make the contrast sharper with Harris. Add a Male VP. We want to run on Dobbs and prosecuting a felon - why in the world are we not jumping at a woman who also happens to be a former prosecutor?
President Joseph Robinette Biden is our Democratic Party nominee. We didn't renominate him lightly. He's uniquely qualified and clearly motivated to stand in the breech in this unique historic global moment.
I respect your point of view absolutely, but two things. First, yes, Harris is ON FIRE and every event and rally that she does supports them BOTH. And second, let's all reject this narrative that Joe is staying on for ego-driven, selfish reasons. He is a good man. He is a loyal servant to this country. They are making DATA-DRIVEN decisions. He is deeply connected to the unions, endorsed last week by the AFL-CIO. This is HUGE in the swing states we must win. Also, the incumbency has a particular power with the electorate. He has very very deep ties to the African American community. So, let's please attempt to put the anger aside and instead recommit to the effort to elect Biden/Harris!!!
The data is pointing clearly away from Joe. He’s running way behind down ballot Dems and over 70 % of independents think he’s too old. 50% of Ds think he’s too old. Imagine a DNC convention where Joe gives a blistering pass the baton speech to Kamala and her shiny new VP. That convention launches us into landslide run bc once we lose the age / cognitive decline weight it all falls back on trump. That’s how we win the WH and congress.
Check out DL Hughey's response to the idiots on TMZ....we already have Harris on the ticket and ready to go if needed. We don't need to do anything else. trump may be going to small rallies here and there, but he has nothing of substance to say, and everyone knows it. Sharks, batteries, Hannibal Lecter,
Agreed. Not sure why the Biden team doesn't pick up on this and use it??? "You want Harris? So do we that's why she's on the ticket. Glad we could help."
Travis I am removing this post for your statement that Biden is running 7-10 points below down ballot Dems is inaccurate and misleading, particularly given the data I've shared the last few days.
In the last debate, Trump never bothered to answer questions. Here is a radical idea:
President Biden could succinctly answer some questions, but otherwise serve up a well-prepared collection of striking facts, zingers and mocking jokes – partly prepared by the likes of Stephen Colbert. Turn the debate into an unforgiving and highly memorable Roast of Trump!
"America has long stood at the edge of the abyss. Join MAGA Republicans and your favorite president – me – as we all take a decisive step ... forward!"
Apropos: portray Trump as a loser, a whiner, Putin’s puppet, a felon and con-man, an adulterer who has to pay sex, an Incel (why is Melania keeping her distance?), a rapist, a six-times-bankrupt failure of a businessman who squandered daddy’s money. A man 159 historians rate as the *worst* president ever – and who almost none of the people who served in his administration is willing to endorse.
Precisely what Joe and the Biden-Harris Campaign are now doing!
I’m starting to wonder if we are being a little too “hopium” with the cherry picking of some polls and pretending there is not a downward trend which all the polling averages show
As someone who checks the 538 polling data too many times in a day, it went from +1 for Biden to -2.3 at its worst, to currently at -1.9. The trend line for Biden is going back up however. According to the 538 analysis given the current numbers, Biden is a normal polling miss away from being a comfortable winner, so your milage will vary on what all of the data means
Sounds like we have similar data consumption habits! 538 is the most favorable model due to its heavy incumbency weighting, which I’m skeptical of. But I also see a lot of tweets saying the polls are even, which they are not, especially in swing states. I also assume congressional district polling is poor, leading to all the defections in the caucus. There may be too much hand waving for me to believe this is the safest path.
I agree that skepticism is always needed so we don't get out over our skis. I just struggle with the concept of the polling being anywhere near accurate, particularly in a time of upheaval like we have had the last two weeks. The night before the election in 2022, RCP was projecting 54 R senators and 538 was probably similar.
Since then, D's have outperformed polling and prior results regularly and even this year, while the R primaries were contested, Trump significantly underperformed the polling. All of that is not hopium on my part, but skepticism about it all right now. The evidence for me is that polling has been wrong and likely continues to be. I think it's a close race. I think most Americans don't like either choice, but are willing to vote for Biden b/c the idea of Trump is too much. Add in a good economy and falling inflation and it becomes a risk for people to make a change. But who the hell really knows.
That's why my focus, as I posted, is to just get back to work and try to convince people of the danger ahead if we don't win.
The danger of just looking at the averages is as you identified, they can be wrong. Especially if you have bad actors who pump out pills to help create and a myth like the red wave myth.
Polling and models should never be used for complacency. The work must be done to win elections. Now more than ever when you have the closest thing to Nazis in my lifetime (not including the Illinois Nazis from the Blues Brothers)
I am looking at the two pages on 538, the polling average which is just doing an average of the polls it adds to its system (I also believe that it doesn't apply any weighting to the quality of the pollster, it's just math). The polling average shows Biden down by 1.9.
The forecast was updated this morning to show Biden winning in 51% of simulations to Trump at 48%. That is the one that that takes incumbency and pollster rankings and all the other math into account, but at the end of the day it is just a simulation of what might happen. As we saw in 2016 the forecast said Clinton had something like a 80% chance of winning in the simulation.
Polling is just a snapshot in time of a very small number of people. 1500 people respond in a country where 154 million people voted in 2020. Different pollsters do different things to try to get an accurate number, but it is all an estimate.
The debate was bad, I watched it and felt doom and gloom for a few hours afterwards, but the focus is on what can we do. Many folks here do more than I can, but we all play a part. I look at the data and read so I can have the informed conversations, donate when I can. I am an engineer by trade so numbers give me an understanding of the world, but I temper that with the other end of knowing that polling is imperfect and representative of a sample.
Fight the good fight, because I don't care if Biden is propped up Weekend at Bernie's style, he would still be a superior President and person that Rapey McFraudFace The Traitor
The polls for Hillary Clinton were not wrong in 2016. Post-election meta-analyses from Prof. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, and others, clearly show a major swing towards Trump in the final days, precisely coinciding with FBI Director James Comey’s announcement about re-opening the investigation into "her emails".
The all-too-common narrative of "hidden/shy Trump voters" is a myth!
Comey cost Hillary the elction – as did third-party votes in the swing states.
A more accurate statement from me would have included the idea that the polls were indeed correct, the models didn't have the ability to adjust/account for the way the election changed due to the Comey letter because there was no way to get the new data into the models. The models also couldn't account for foreign interference.
This time I got a feeling that The Three Stooges running as third party candidates--Cuckoo For Cocoa Puffs RFK, Jill Stein and Cornholio West are going to pull votes from Trump instead of Joe.
It was closer to 70% in 2016, as I heard Nate live onWNYC the day before the election talking about how 30% was not insignificant chance of trump winning and there were a large amount of undecideds; they mostly broke for trump. I don't think he gets them again, because Biden has been a good president and people are warming to Harris ( read that her approval in only 29%, which I discount; people don't even know her that well ).
Simon discusses the polls here every day and does not sugarcoat anything. Swing states and head to head are within margin of error. This is not cherry picking. 53% of indies don't think trump is fit to be in the WH. That means something: source: Joe Trippi, Navigator, who also notes you can't just look at head to head polling; these other surveys matter.
Polls are a snapshot and recently have poor validity. I don't know about you, but I never respond to polls and surveys. The cossacks aren't coming.
The DOW Jones topped 40,000, hitting 40,601.90, which is an all-time intraday high! Should make headlines in the WSJ, the NYT, all media. All the markets are up. Unemployment at all time lows.
When times get tough, the tough get going. If you are a contrarian investor and want to make money, vote against consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment is at an all time low, while markets are at an all time high.
Worry less, do more. Now is the time to register more Democrats.
I did get a survey from Dems today via text. I usually ignore but these were about Kamala Harris. I have never gotten any survey about Harris. I took the first one. Then a few hours later I got a second one about Harris. Interesting
Maybe, maybe not. Does that change anything you're going to do? A little hopium helps motivate me to donate and volunteer. Whatever the "true" state of the race (which is unknown), the work is the same for me.
Justin, there is not a downward trend. 538 average is up, generic is up, the last battleground state poll had Biden gaining 2. The polls I shared here were just lifted straight from 538 and not cherry picked. Accusing me of cherry picking is way out of bounds and I would ask that you choose your words more carefully in the future, particularly given that what you wrote here is wrong.
Biden was up in 4 polls this week. May be the most in any week this year. Just the facts man, appreciate it if you stay a little closer to the material here before weighing in and accusing me of manipulating data, which is a very serious charge.
THANK YOU! for keeping us all sane. 1) Shrinking Trump is an excellent podcast by two well-regarded psychologists. In Friday's podcast, they interview an expert on stuttering and he gives a lot of insight into how this affects how Biden communicates and has nothing to do with dementia; 2) I'm continually dismayed at how the corporate media describes the Republican Party. They're calling their platform "conservative." Give me a break. Maybe this really is the Fake News.
Biden was on fire yesterday! That is one of the best speeches I've ever heard him give - packed with substance, including a clear recitation of his accomplishments and a vision for his next administration's goals to help everyday Americans; funny, and self-deprecating (I hope he continues to poke fun at the critics and himself, it's very endearing and effective); and a searing indictment of TFG and his plans to dismantle our democracy. More of that please Joe!
I'm signed up for GA postcards but they don't start for a while - suggestions for the best postcard campaigns available now?
Fran. I’m doing Postcards to Swing States. I write 10 per day and my goal is 1000. You can choose different states. Right now I’m doing Michigan. Onward!
I hand write the addresses. Postcards for Swing States sends all the names and addresses and the cards for the state you chose.
I also write letters through VoteForward-I go back and forth between the two. It helps with my anxiety and fear of what Simon calls (and I agree) the Fascist Party and what they want to do to our country.
I don’t want my grandchildren to ask me “where were you in 2024 when our country was in the brink?”
Fran - thanks for all you do!! The blue wave postcard movement will be starting their Michigan vote by mail postcards this week. We just dial out of the voter registration ones - you can mail them as soon as you finish them. Would love your help! https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org
Thank you Michelle for all the work you do!! Yep we just mailed out our Michigan voter registration and just launched our Michigan vote by mail campaign. Hoping to get at least 300k mailed in this one.
Excellent news! Michigan is my home state, and I have family there. It was hard to see the state turn red, but has been wonderful to see beautiful Michigan, led by an amazing governor, start turning back to the light side of The Force! Go Blue -- in more ways than one!
I'm also from Michigan and was invited to the Detroit speech but chose to watch it on TV instead. My wife and I were cheering Joe last night. We are all Motown in Joetown!!!
Amazing - thank you for your work and support. We are having a postcard writing party today for our Michigan registrations and just launched the Michigan vote by mail.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/ has postcard campaigns in many states and districts that are mailed continuously as you write them. The script options are aimed at voter registration and checking/updating registration via Voterizer.org. I'm mailing 5-10 a day for NC-1. I'm also simultaneously writing 200 Postcards to Swing States for PA, but those don't mail until Oct. 11.
I was tremendously energized watching President Biden in Michigan last night. He went on pitch-perfect offense against the 34-time convicted felon and traitor (he even cited the judge who called him a rapist), and made a wholly persuasive, positive case for what he and a Democratic majority can accomplish in a second term. For those still determined to push him out, please watch the speech and remember that 14 million of us voted this year for the Biden-Harris ticket. Then consider by contrast that 8 million voted for the Obama-Biden ticket in the 2012 presidential primaries. And as Simon highlights, polling is improving for us even with the relentless onslaught of negativity. Yesterday, NPR/Marist had Biden beating Trump 50-48. Imagine how well Biden might do if Democrats could set aside their fears and unite behind him with the same level of fervor as MAGA supports Trump!
As Simon often reminds us, America has consistently rejected MAGA in election after election since 2018. If we stay solidly and hopefully on offense each day, we will collectively reject them again, up and down the ballot in 2024.
💯!!! It burns my cookies that some Dems are calling for our fantastically successful president to step down, while the GOP is united behind an absolutely unspeakable person who was one of the worst presidents we have ever had. We have a democracy to save, here!
And while our legacy media elevates the relative handful of Dem pols who have advocated that President Biden step down, have you noticed how many of them are what newspapers invariably term "obscure back-benchers?" I wonder how many of them are seizing on this chance to raise their profiles and get some attention at the President's expense? Hmmmmm. 🤔 If so, their opportunism is beyond reprehensible. I hope all of them operating in such self-serving bad faith are primaried from the Left when they come up for re-election and go down in flames.
I used to teach in Detroit. Though sometimes a stigmatized city, the level of political commitment there is very high. Coverage of the Biden visit by the Detroit Free Press, the more liberal paper, popped up on my phone today. It was a good piece, more reasonable and fair to Biden than I’ve seen lately in the national press. People on the ground were sometimes frustrated with Biden or the party but they all supported him. I noticed a detail: the protest contingent related to the war in Gaza was quite small, only 20 protesters.
In my opinion, the current media storm is a mix of sincere concern, alarm from Democratic politicians who should know better than to display their panic so publicly, and click-seeking articles from the infotainment industry that has long since replaced our news media – all amplified by the pack-hunting mentality of our press, by social media algorithms, and by foreign bot farms.
I guarantee you this: Should President Biden be forced to withdraw, there will be a helluva lot of Republican power players raising Cognac glasses in celebration behind closed doors. Just as they did when they duped Democrats to force the highly-effective Senator Al Franken to resign.
I agree, esp about panicking publicly - it's not street smart. If you're walking down the street alone at night in a rough neighborhood, you might be scared but you don't advertise it!
I think there's another factor at play - media ppl who just aren't up to the job. The stark reality of the crisis, imo, is terrifying - hence the wisdom in worry less, do more - but unfortunately many newsmedia ppl cannot grasp the magnitude of the crisis, or they are afraid, or their bosses nix the frank discussion. As long as we were moving forward, I didn't care. Now it's as if a volcano is about to go off and they want to report on a fender bender outside Reykjavik because that's what they're comfortable covering.
You've aptly described the press as having a "pack-hunting mentality." And, speaking of Al Franken, I've never forgiven Kirsten Gillebrand for her role in his ouster, and I never will.
Whatever the reality of the charges against Al Franken, which were mild and not that serious, Gillibrand and overly-hasty Democratic senators unwittingly did the Republicans’ bidding. Huge mistake, imho! They chased out of office one of their most effective senators, one that had long been a thorn deep in the side of Trump and the GOP.
A public censure would have sufficed, but no -- Gillebrand had to have herself seen as a MeToo warrior. And yes, the GOPers are adept at turning Democrats' outrage against ourselves.
THanks Paula: I like this: if a considerable portion of the electorate doesn't understand that you don't just vote for a person but for a person, party, Congress, justices, legislation, agenda, movement, and plan—maybe we should try and educate them rather than blowing up a campaign to placate them? I'm writing letters to the editor to educate, and hope that those with the microphones can educate as well.
Intriguing how we all discussed thoroughly how Biden needs to shift gears ASAP and start aggressively making the case against 45. Yesterday's speech couldn't have been more palpable. I understand the skepticism some have as to whether he can preserve that same intensity for every major public appearance from here on out through the election. I think last night proved -- when sitting back and watching from a macro view, Biden has the stamina and is consistently energized by the voters and the crowd. Hence, why his next debate should be with an audience! It would also be wise for both Biden and Harris to do several Town Halls. Keep it moving Joe, you've got this! The voters are in line more than the media folks -- let's not forget that. Ground game!!!
MOCKING Trump – suggested debate or journalist question:
"Ex-president Trump, you have stated that “Immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country”. Should voters be concerned that your own blood is poisoned by your German grandfather, Friedrich Trump? How has the blood of your own children been poisoned by your former Czech wife, Ivana, and your present Slovenian wife, Melania?"
must be asked by a journalist or someone in the media, not Biden. We need him to focus on his vision for the country, and that he can get it done, and Trump has no vision, only destruction and division, as in divide and conquer.
I don't know how this will all shake out (though it's likely that Pres Biden remains the nominee). My focus is back to getting the work done. Because of this community, I wrote my first batch of postcards ever after the debate. My parents were visiting us and they saw us writing postcards and they went home to Florida and ordered their own batch of postcards. I have ordered my next batch of postcards as well and will continue to do so until the election. If you want to help, here is the website https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/
Keep doing the work! Sign up to canvass, or phonebook or whatever your local part of the party needs. No matter what happens over the next week as we settle this issue of the nomination once and for all, keep working. My wife and I were at a Biden Victory Fund fundraiser last night. Everyone knows the stakes, everyone knows that we have to be united and make sure that Trump is not elected and everyone was ready to do the work.
I couldn't help but notice that Linda Z's great looking postcards are from our Markers For Democracy Vistaprint shop. We make no money from these postcards which have been created by members of our own MFD community. We have a growing collection including the "Vote on Day One" postcard designed by Jim McMullan (the artist behind many of Lincoln Center Theater's iconic posters). https://markersfordemocracy.org/postcarding/mfd-postcard-shop Lots of other great postcards and postcard creators out there but if you like variety, we've got many designs on both full and half-backs.
I prefer uncoated for the writing surface. But other people in Markers For Democracy prefer matte which has a little shine to it. I don't know which we sell more of but will ask.
If you listen closely, you can hear him saying something like where are my shoes. At that point, he was completely surrounded by other people, so unless someone was lobbing a bomb at the platform, Trump was protected by people who would take the bullet for him.
Sorry about that post. I deleted it. It was stupid and reckless for me to do that.
This is exactly how conspiracy theories get started.
hey don't knock the muting crisis - the cheering at the end was great fun
Good idea. And then he could un-mute everybody at the very end, so we can cheer...
I thought we had agreed in this community to focus on attacking TFG and bolstering our democratic ticket no matter who. From what I understand it will all shake out in the next week or two (the sooner the better), but that it was a better idea to focus on positive, productive action than continuing to attack our own ticket. Maybe I missed the memo, but aren’t we beyond Biden bashing in here?
I’m not trashing Biden, I’m pointing out the realities of the situation in a forum where we all want the same thing. I don’t think he’s the best QB for the team, and will say so until it’s too late. I am legitimately angry at him for putting us in this position, and for his post debate responses. I am not for Joe, I am for winning. If it winds up he stays on, I’ll shut up. Until then, I don’t like where we are or how he’s managing things and it’s okay to say so
Do you really really think that THIS depressingly backwards country aligning behind an African American WOMAN isn't a risk in and of itself?
Dude.
You're wrong.
And you're wrong doing your "just asking questions" thing here, which yes, was indeed explicitly one of the things that Simon said Thursday night folks could go do somewhere else, not here. We're not discussing it here.
Because. we. here. have. no. say. in. the. matter. now. Only President Joe does.
No (utterly futile) movement to change that will originate - nor be permitted to take hold - here. The More that we are here to Do doesn't include whatever... this... is (sure looks like Worry) that you think you're doing.
Please stop.
https://johnpavlovitz.substack.com/p/the-lefts-reckless-crusade-against?r=4bvy2&triedRedirect=true
I’m not trying to start a movement - I’m discussing what we’re all thinking about. He’s not campaigning this weekend, but is holding calls with DEM congressional groups and angering them further by being unable to articulate a winning plan. Kamala and Shapiro are campaigning in PA today. Those two are a good example of the potential this party has beyond Biden and I have zero idea why ppl continue to cling to the idea that he is the only way. That’s just simply not true
Where are you getting the info about angering Congressional Dems. Please share.
New: During call with New Democrats, Biden went from “rambling, sort of unfocused” to “defensive.”
Jason Crow: “We need a major change or we will lose.”
Chrissy Houlahan: “You’re losing Pennsylvania by 4-5 points.”
This was from punch bowl
Post assassination attempt - Wondering if - with this assassination attempt on Trump - the Dems can unite (with Republicans too) in promoting a call against gun violence and linking this to our concern about Jan 6? In other words, an attempt to turn this potentially politically explosive event - that supports Trump and reinforces his self-mythologizing - against him?
I'm sorry but I totally disagree with you about discussing Joe Biden remaining our candidate, and you are badly mischaracterizing what Simon said about talking about it. If you watched his video he said, "It is ok for us to discuss the impact of his debate performance because it's affected his standing and affected the polls. It's a reality we have to deal with." And, "It is ok for us to be discussing whether Joe Biden is the best candidate in this election." He also said he's "most disappointed by people feeling it's illegitimate to be having this conversation. It's an absurdity and people have to grow up a little bit around here.'" So when you say, "We're not discussing it here" that's the exact opposite of what Simon said in his video. In fact, If you watched it he spent the entire first part explaining why it's a completely legitimate and extremely important issue to discuss.
Thank you for your accurate correction regarding Simon's statement on the matter.
I regret my error.
Hmm... Kamala has been ELECTRIC. At his best, Biden is a SHARK.
Trump’s nightmare, to which he has alluded, is that he’s facing TEAM Biden-Harris!
It’s trump’s fervent hope that Biden stays on bc Biden gives trump the best chance of winning. He built his entire operation to beat Biden and trump’s campaign doesn’t work against literally anybody else.
Not so sure about that. I think Trump would love to run against Kamala Harris. Why? This is the most "gendered" election ever, with dramatic differences between how men and women are voting. In fact, the RNC planners and designers are working hard to make this their most *macho* convention ever.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/13/gender-gap-ufc-abortion-2024-election
Good, then make the contrast sharper with Harris. Add a Male VP. We want to run on Dobbs and prosecuting a felon - why in the world are we not jumping at a woman who also happens to be a former prosecutor?
Because we already have her.
She's perfectly placed to serve.
And then serve further as POTUS 2028-36..
President Joseph Robinette Biden is our Democratic Party nominee. We didn't renominate him lightly. He's uniquely qualified and clearly motivated to stand in the breech in this unique historic global moment.
Love this, thank you!
I respect your point of view absolutely, but two things. First, yes, Harris is ON FIRE and every event and rally that she does supports them BOTH. And second, let's all reject this narrative that Joe is staying on for ego-driven, selfish reasons. He is a good man. He is a loyal servant to this country. They are making DATA-DRIVEN decisions. He is deeply connected to the unions, endorsed last week by the AFL-CIO. This is HUGE in the swing states we must win. Also, the incumbency has a particular power with the electorate. He has very very deep ties to the African American community. So, let's please attempt to put the anger aside and instead recommit to the effort to elect Biden/Harris!!!
The data is pointing clearly away from Joe. He’s running way behind down ballot Dems and over 70 % of independents think he’s too old. 50% of Ds think he’s too old. Imagine a DNC convention where Joe gives a blistering pass the baton speech to Kamala and her shiny new VP. That convention launches us into landslide run bc once we lose the age / cognitive decline weight it all falls back on trump. That’s how we win the WH and congress.
Check out DL Hughey's response to the idiots on TMZ....we already have Harris on the ticket and ready to go if needed. We don't need to do anything else. trump may be going to small rallies here and there, but he has nothing of substance to say, and everyone knows it. Sharks, batteries, Hannibal Lecter,
Could you provide a link?
Agreed. Not sure why the Biden team doesn't pick up on this and use it??? "You want Harris? So do we that's why she's on the ticket. Glad we could help."
Travis I am removing this post for your statement that Biden is running 7-10 points below down ballot Dems is inaccurate and misleading, particularly given the data I've shared the last few days.
You told Biden and all of us to start mocking Donald Trump. Yesterday Biden did that in spades. thank you, Simon.
In the last debate, Trump never bothered to answer questions. Here is a radical idea:
President Biden could succinctly answer some questions, but otherwise serve up a well-prepared collection of striking facts, zingers and mocking jokes – partly prepared by the likes of Stephen Colbert. Turn the debate into an unforgiving and highly memorable Roast of Trump!
Trump’s MAGA appeal, summarized:
"America has long stood at the edge of the abyss. Join MAGA Republicans and your favorite president – me – as we all take a decisive step ... forward!"
Another subtle jab: consistently refer to "ex-president Trump", rather than "former president".
Apropos: portray Trump as a loser, a whiner, Putin’s puppet, a felon and con-man, an adulterer who has to pay sex, an Incel (why is Melania keeping her distance?), a rapist, a six-times-bankrupt failure of a businessman who squandered daddy’s money. A man 159 historians rate as the *worst* president ever – and who almost none of the people who served in his administration is willing to endorse.
Precisely what Joe and the Biden-Harris Campaign are now doing!
Here is an important thread:
https://nitter.poast.org/jenmercieca/status/1812161863926587472#m
"We got your back, Joe." I like it!!
He's had ours for four years, time to repay the favor
I’m starting to wonder if we are being a little too “hopium” with the cherry picking of some polls and pretending there is not a downward trend which all the polling averages show
As someone who checks the 538 polling data too many times in a day, it went from +1 for Biden to -2.3 at its worst, to currently at -1.9. The trend line for Biden is going back up however. According to the 538 analysis given the current numbers, Biden is a normal polling miss away from being a comfortable winner, so your milage will vary on what all of the data means
Sounds like we have similar data consumption habits! 538 is the most favorable model due to its heavy incumbency weighting, which I’m skeptical of. But I also see a lot of tweets saying the polls are even, which they are not, especially in swing states. I also assume congressional district polling is poor, leading to all the defections in the caucus. There may be too much hand waving for me to believe this is the safest path.
I agree that skepticism is always needed so we don't get out over our skis. I just struggle with the concept of the polling being anywhere near accurate, particularly in a time of upheaval like we have had the last two weeks. The night before the election in 2022, RCP was projecting 54 R senators and 538 was probably similar.
Since then, D's have outperformed polling and prior results regularly and even this year, while the R primaries were contested, Trump significantly underperformed the polling. All of that is not hopium on my part, but skepticism about it all right now. The evidence for me is that polling has been wrong and likely continues to be. I think it's a close race. I think most Americans don't like either choice, but are willing to vote for Biden b/c the idea of Trump is too much. Add in a good economy and falling inflation and it becomes a risk for people to make a change. But who the hell really knows.
That's why my focus, as I posted, is to just get back to work and try to convince people of the danger ahead if we don't win.
The danger of just looking at the averages is as you identified, they can be wrong. Especially if you have bad actors who pump out pills to help create and a myth like the red wave myth.
Polling and models should never be used for complacency. The work must be done to win elections. Now more than ever when you have the closest thing to Nazis in my lifetime (not including the Illinois Nazis from the Blues Brothers)
I am looking at the two pages on 538, the polling average which is just doing an average of the polls it adds to its system (I also believe that it doesn't apply any weighting to the quality of the pollster, it's just math). The polling average shows Biden down by 1.9.
The forecast was updated this morning to show Biden winning in 51% of simulations to Trump at 48%. That is the one that that takes incumbency and pollster rankings and all the other math into account, but at the end of the day it is just a simulation of what might happen. As we saw in 2016 the forecast said Clinton had something like a 80% chance of winning in the simulation.
Polling is just a snapshot in time of a very small number of people. 1500 people respond in a country where 154 million people voted in 2020. Different pollsters do different things to try to get an accurate number, but it is all an estimate.
The debate was bad, I watched it and felt doom and gloom for a few hours afterwards, but the focus is on what can we do. Many folks here do more than I can, but we all play a part. I look at the data and read so I can have the informed conversations, donate when I can. I am an engineer by trade so numbers give me an understanding of the world, but I temper that with the other end of knowing that polling is imperfect and representative of a sample.
Fight the good fight, because I don't care if Biden is propped up Weekend at Bernie's style, he would still be a superior President and person that Rapey McFraudFace The Traitor
The polls for Hillary Clinton were not wrong in 2016. Post-election meta-analyses from Prof. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, and others, clearly show a major swing towards Trump in the final days, precisely coinciding with FBI Director James Comey’s announcement about re-opening the investigation into "her emails".
The all-too-common narrative of "hidden/shy Trump voters" is a myth!
Comey cost Hillary the elction – as did third-party votes in the swing states.
A more accurate statement from me would have included the idea that the polls were indeed correct, the models didn't have the ability to adjust/account for the way the election changed due to the Comey letter because there was no way to get the new data into the models. The models also couldn't account for foreign interference.
And let's not forget that Hillary Clinton did win the popular vote by over 3 million votes.
And Joe Biden won by over 7 million.
That will always be his legacy.
This time I got a feeling that The Three Stooges running as third party candidates--Cuckoo For Cocoa Puffs RFK, Jill Stein and Cornholio West are going to pull votes from Trump instead of Joe.
You should write mean nicknames for Trump!
It was closer to 70% in 2016, as I heard Nate live onWNYC the day before the election talking about how 30% was not insignificant chance of trump winning and there were a large amount of undecideds; they mostly broke for trump. I don't think he gets them again, because Biden has been a good president and people are warming to Harris ( read that her approval in only 29%, which I discount; people don't even know her that well ).
Simon discusses the polls here every day and does not sugarcoat anything. Swing states and head to head are within margin of error. This is not cherry picking. 53% of indies don't think trump is fit to be in the WH. That means something: source: Joe Trippi, Navigator, who also notes you can't just look at head to head polling; these other surveys matter.
Swing States are basically tied then? How about Wisconsin?
Polls are a snapshot and recently have poor validity. I don't know about you, but I never respond to polls and surveys. The cossacks aren't coming.
The DOW Jones topped 40,000, hitting 40,601.90, which is an all-time intraday high! Should make headlines in the WSJ, the NYT, all media. All the markets are up. Unemployment at all time lows.
When times get tough, the tough get going. If you are a contrarian investor and want to make money, vote against consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment is at an all time low, while markets are at an all time high.
Worry less, do more. Now is the time to register more Democrats.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
I second FT6. Their BYOP voter registration texting program is well organized and easy.
I do wish Michael Bloomberg or the right-wingers’ favorite bogeyman, George Soros, would donate a couple of million dollars to Field Team 6.
I did get a survey from Dems today via text. I usually ignore but these were about Kamala Harris. I have never gotten any survey about Harris. I took the first one. Then a few hours later I got a second one about Harris. Interesting
Maybe, maybe not. Does that change anything you're going to do? A little hopium helps motivate me to donate and volunteer. Whatever the "true" state of the race (which is unknown), the work is the same for me.
Justin, there is not a downward trend. 538 average is up, generic is up, the last battleground state poll had Biden gaining 2. The polls I shared here were just lifted straight from 538 and not cherry picked. Accusing me of cherry picking is way out of bounds and I would ask that you choose your words more carefully in the future, particularly given that what you wrote here is wrong.
Biden was up in 4 polls this week. May be the most in any week this year. Just the facts man, appreciate it if you stay a little closer to the material here before weighing in and accusing me of manipulating data, which is a very serious charge.
THANK YOU! for keeping us all sane. 1) Shrinking Trump is an excellent podcast by two well-regarded psychologists. In Friday's podcast, they interview an expert on stuttering and he gives a lot of insight into how this affects how Biden communicates and has nothing to do with dementia; 2) I'm continually dismayed at how the corporate media describes the Republican Party. They're calling their platform "conservative." Give me a break. Maybe this really is the Fake News.
Biden was on fire yesterday! That is one of the best speeches I've ever heard him give - packed with substance, including a clear recitation of his accomplishments and a vision for his next administration's goals to help everyday Americans; funny, and self-deprecating (I hope he continues to poke fun at the critics and himself, it's very endearing and effective); and a searing indictment of TFG and his plans to dismantle our democracy. More of that please Joe!
I'm signed up for GA postcards but they don't start for a while - suggestions for the best postcard campaigns available now?
Fran. I’m doing Postcards to Swing States. I write 10 per day and my goal is 1000. You can choose different states. Right now I’m doing Michigan. Onward!
Jeanie, may I ask, do you handwrite the addresses or ask for a file so you can do labels?
Hi Donna,
I hand write the addresses. Postcards for Swing States sends all the names and addresses and the cards for the state you chose.
I also write letters through VoteForward-I go back and forth between the two. It helps with my anxiety and fear of what Simon calls (and I agree) the Fascist Party and what they want to do to our country.
I don’t want my grandchildren to ask me “where were you in 2024 when our country was in the brink?”
Thank you, and I agree!
FYI Donna: BlueWave postcarding campaigns provide labels you apply and you can order stamps from them for your cards.
Thank you, I have 200 coming in the mail soon (MI)!!
Fran - thanks for all you do!! The blue wave postcard movement will be starting their Michigan vote by mail postcards this week. We just dial out of the voter registration ones - you can mail them as soon as you finish them. Would love your help! https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org
Hubby and I just finished another hundred Blue Wave postcards for WI; will mail them today. Anticipating our shipment of postcards for MI!
Thank you Michelle for all the work you do!! Yep we just mailed out our Michigan voter registration and just launched our Michigan vote by mail campaign. Hoping to get at least 300k mailed in this one.
Excellent news! Michigan is my home state, and I have family there. It was hard to see the state turn red, but has been wonderful to see beautiful Michigan, led by an amazing governor, start turning back to the light side of The Force! Go Blue -- in more ways than one!
I'm also from Michigan and was invited to the Detroit speech but chose to watch it on TV instead. My wife and I were cheering Joe last night. We are all Motown in Joetown!!!
Also Blue Wave Postcards.
Amazing - thank you for your work and support. We are having a postcard writing party today for our Michigan registrations and just launched the Michigan vote by mail.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/ has postcard campaigns in many states and districts that are mailed continuously as you write them. The script options are aimed at voter registration and checking/updating registration via Voterizer.org. I'm mailing 5-10 a day for NC-1. I'm also simultaneously writing 200 Postcards to Swing States for PA, but those don't mail until Oct. 11.
Write ‘em now. Mail ‘em in October (or whenever your group has mail date). Swing States needs more help in NC and one other state. Can’t remember.
Thank you.
I signed up with Swing States to write cards for North Carolina. 200 cards for starters. Donated to Field Team 6, inspired by our Daniel Solomon!
Oh Arctic Stones, thank you for writing to NC! 💙
Try ActivateAmerica.vote/postcards
I was tremendously energized watching President Biden in Michigan last night. He went on pitch-perfect offense against the 34-time convicted felon and traitor (he even cited the judge who called him a rapist), and made a wholly persuasive, positive case for what he and a Democratic majority can accomplish in a second term. For those still determined to push him out, please watch the speech and remember that 14 million of us voted this year for the Biden-Harris ticket. Then consider by contrast that 8 million voted for the Obama-Biden ticket in the 2012 presidential primaries. And as Simon highlights, polling is improving for us even with the relentless onslaught of negativity. Yesterday, NPR/Marist had Biden beating Trump 50-48. Imagine how well Biden might do if Democrats could set aside their fears and unite behind him with the same level of fervor as MAGA supports Trump!
As Simon often reminds us, America has consistently rejected MAGA in election after election since 2018. If we stay solidly and hopefully on offense each day, we will collectively reject them again, up and down the ballot in 2024.
💯!!! It burns my cookies that some Dems are calling for our fantastically successful president to step down, while the GOP is united behind an absolutely unspeakable person who was one of the worst presidents we have ever had. We have a democracy to save, here!
And while our legacy media elevates the relative handful of Dem pols who have advocated that President Biden step down, have you noticed how many of them are what newspapers invariably term "obscure back-benchers?" I wonder how many of them are seizing on this chance to raise their profiles and get some attention at the President's expense? Hmmmmm. 🤔 If so, their opportunism is beyond reprehensible. I hope all of them operating in such self-serving bad faith are primaried from the Left when they come up for re-election and go down in flames.
I used to teach in Detroit. Though sometimes a stigmatized city, the level of political commitment there is very high. Coverage of the Biden visit by the Detroit Free Press, the more liberal paper, popped up on my phone today. It was a good piece, more reasonable and fair to Biden than I’ve seen lately in the national press. People on the ground were sometimes frustrated with Biden or the party but they all supported him. I noticed a detail: the protest contingent related to the war in Gaza was quite small, only 20 protesters.
And he spoke to them with respect and clarity about what he and the team have done. Classy.
John Pavlovitz has stated it all so eloquently: https://open.substack.com/pub/johnpavlovitz/p/the-lefts-reckless-crusade-against?r=4bvy2&utm_medium=ios
Thank you for sharing!
In my opinion, the current media storm is a mix of sincere concern, alarm from Democratic politicians who should know better than to display their panic so publicly, and click-seeking articles from the infotainment industry that has long since replaced our news media – all amplified by the pack-hunting mentality of our press, by social media algorithms, and by foreign bot farms.
I guarantee you this: Should President Biden be forced to withdraw, there will be a helluva lot of Republican power players raising Cognac glasses in celebration behind closed doors. Just as they did when they duped Democrats to force the highly-effective Senator Al Franken to resign.
I agree, esp about panicking publicly - it's not street smart. If you're walking down the street alone at night in a rough neighborhood, you might be scared but you don't advertise it!
I think there's another factor at play - media ppl who just aren't up to the job. The stark reality of the crisis, imo, is terrifying - hence the wisdom in worry less, do more - but unfortunately many newsmedia ppl cannot grasp the magnitude of the crisis, or they are afraid, or their bosses nix the frank discussion. As long as we were moving forward, I didn't care. Now it's as if a volcano is about to go off and they want to report on a fender bender outside Reykjavik because that's what they're comfortable covering.
You've aptly described the press as having a "pack-hunting mentality." And, speaking of Al Franken, I've never forgiven Kirsten Gillebrand for her role in his ouster, and I never will.
Whatever the reality of the charges against Al Franken, which were mild and not that serious, Gillibrand and overly-hasty Democratic senators unwittingly did the Republicans’ bidding. Huge mistake, imho! They chased out of office one of their most effective senators, one that had long been a thorn deep in the side of Trump and the GOP.
A public censure would have sufficed, but no -- Gillebrand had to have herself seen as a MeToo warrior. And yes, the GOPers are adept at turning Democrats' outrage against ourselves.
Well, in fairness it wasn’t just Gillibrand. Sadly, that’s all water under the bridge.
No, I wasn't just her, but she spearheaded the ouster.
💗
THanks Paula: I like this: if a considerable portion of the electorate doesn't understand that you don't just vote for a person but for a person, party, Congress, justices, legislation, agenda, movement, and plan—maybe we should try and educate them rather than blowing up a campaign to placate them? I'm writing letters to the editor to educate, and hope that those with the microphones can educate as well.
John, a former pastor, has been an incredible voice for Joe and democracy. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks, for sharing, Paula -- very well said.
Intriguing how we all discussed thoroughly how Biden needs to shift gears ASAP and start aggressively making the case against 45. Yesterday's speech couldn't have been more palpable. I understand the skepticism some have as to whether he can preserve that same intensity for every major public appearance from here on out through the election. I think last night proved -- when sitting back and watching from a macro view, Biden has the stamina and is consistently energized by the voters and the crowd. Hence, why his next debate should be with an audience! It would also be wise for both Biden and Harris to do several Town Halls. Keep it moving Joe, you've got this! The voters are in line more than the media folks -- let's not forget that. Ground game!!!
Blake it's true that both the candidate and the campaign are fighting harder, adjusting to the new moment and it is great to see.
Is there a way to get out of the second debate without losing face? It’s not an easy format for Joe to be good at.
And he’s on fire with these speeches!
I feel the same way 😬😬😬. I don't know. I may need meds if he does another debate. Nothing wrong with taking meds if one needs them.
Simon, I really like your annotated list of Trump’s plans!! Great for sharing!!
MOCKING Trump – suggested debate or journalist question:
"Ex-president Trump, you have stated that “Immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country”. Should voters be concerned that your own blood is poisoned by your German grandfather, Friedrich Trump? How has the blood of your own children been poisoned by your former Czech wife, Ivana, and your present Slovenian wife, Melania?"
We think alike, my friend.
must be asked by a journalist or someone in the media, not Biden. We need him to focus on his vision for the country, and that he can get it done, and Trump has no vision, only destruction and division, as in divide and conquer.
I don't know how this will all shake out (though it's likely that Pres Biden remains the nominee). My focus is back to getting the work done. Because of this community, I wrote my first batch of postcards ever after the debate. My parents were visiting us and they saw us writing postcards and they went home to Florida and ordered their own batch of postcards. I have ordered my next batch of postcards as well and will continue to do so until the election. If you want to help, here is the website https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/
Keep doing the work! Sign up to canvass, or phonebook or whatever your local part of the party needs. No matter what happens over the next week as we settle this issue of the nomination once and for all, keep working. My wife and I were at a Biden Victory Fund fundraiser last night. Everyone knows the stakes, everyone knows that we have to be united and make sure that Trump is not elected and everyone was ready to do the work.
Yes! Keep working hard!
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Thank you, Tim Wegener and parents!!!!
I couldn't help but notice that Linda Z's great looking postcards are from our Markers For Democracy Vistaprint shop. We make no money from these postcards which have been created by members of our own MFD community. We have a growing collection including the "Vote on Day One" postcard designed by Jim McMullan (the artist behind many of Lincoln Center Theater's iconic posters). https://markersfordemocracy.org/postcarding/mfd-postcard-shop Lots of other great postcards and postcard creators out there but if you like variety, we've got many designs on both full and half-backs.
Thank you! Wondered where they were from. Think postage rates going up this weekend.
They are. I ordered stamps last week.
Do you sell more of uncoated matt? Will put in order.
I meant uncoated or matt…
I prefer uncoated for the writing surface. But other people in Markers For Democracy prefer matte which has a little shine to it. I don't know which we sell more of but will ask.
And where are you getting the names to send them to? I haven't been sending postcards yet. Is it on Hopium?
Just found place on MFD to get addresses. Thanks for info.
Thank you Ellen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Where would we get names and addresses?
The cards that Linda Z. wrote look like they could be from Activate America. https://www.activateamerica.vote/postcards Markers For Democracy sends out a postcarding newsletter every other Friday which curates postcard campaigns from Activate America, Postcards To Voters, our own Postcards For Democracy and other programs. https://mailchi.mp/d94e71d1dae0/this-week-in-postcarding-75-issue?e=661948f71c
Thank you.