Simon you are the highlight of my day everyday. I'm so glad I became a paid supporter worth every penny. I want you to know iam sending out postcards to unregistered women voters across the nation! When I feel down or angry I donate and double down writing postcards!
Me too! I’ve been writing hundreds of postcards to swing states and will continue until the election. I think it’s a great way to make it personal for reluctant voters.
Couldn't agree more ! Got a stack of 300 for Jacky Rosen in Nevada, and in both these and others I've often played with the script & added my own phrases. Very therapeutic for those of us with severe anxiety as well
“So let me see if I can summarize where this race stands at this moment. The Republican candidate for president owes half a billion in fines for bank fraud, and is currently spending his days farting himself awake during a porn star hush money trial – and the race is tied???”
– Colin Jost
.
American voters may be behind the curve, but I am confident a decisive majority will catch up by November.
I have a basic exercise I do every morning that goes like this:
80% of voters pay no attention to anything until six weeks before a presidential election.
Which means they haven’t tuned in since the day Joe Biden was declared the victor of the 2020 election and have missed out on all of Trump’s worst behavior.
Everything new they will learn about Donald Trump is likely to make them like him less.
Everything they learn about Joe Biden is likely to make them like him more.
We got this!
I say it to myself every morning when I wake up, and it keeps me feeling very confident, no matter what the news of the day is . Cheers! 😎🇺🇸
I agree, Simon is the highlight of my day too. And I keep thinking of that remarkable 25 point spread Democratic victory in ALABAMA, because of women’s reproductive rights. I’m hoping we will alabama republicans in many many other states come November.
(alabama definition: verb, to alabama: to decisively defeat one’s opponents at the ballot box)
My one remaining worry is Steve Bannon and his ilk. Dirty tricks are coming, and I hope the Biden campaign is preparing for that onslaught.
Thank you for the comments on Vice President Harris. I have always considered her an extremely intelligent, competent, and confident person. I have never understood why folks I know see her as inauthentic.
This newsletter puts current events into perspective and points out the hopeful, positive political happenings of the day. Who says politics can't be positive?
VP Harris will be in Jacksonville ,Florida 😎 tomorrow, May 1st.Jacksonville, nicknamed “The Bold City”, is our largest and youngest city with an average age of 36. May 1st is the first day our draconian 6-week abortion ban will be in effect.
Tony at Postcards To Voters told me that Floridians for Reproductive Freedom, the org behind Amendment 4, has not yet requested a postcard campaign.
I am so glad that the Biden/Harris campaign and the DNC are putting effort into Florida. I don’t think the state has to be as red as it’s been, the influx of retirees notwithstanding. I think the problem was with the state Democratic Party and poor leadership. Now that Nikki Fried is in charge, the Florida Democrats are getting their mojo back. I’m glad to see Madame VP helping!
Simon I loved hearing what you said to Lawrence O’Donnell’s viewers last night. Especially the kudos to VP Harris! I’m glad she is feeling the love these days! 💙
Lawrence bringing up VP Harris on his show last night needs to be done more often. They are a team and she's done so much to stump for Joe.
I've been following VP Harris on twitter for 2 years. At first, I was uneasy about what would happen should something happen to Joe. But after following her, I see someone who has grown into the job both in domestic and foreign affairs and leaves me with no doubts should she have to step into the Office of the President.
Incredible work--not just the hard daily work of Hopium--but the many podcasts and cable news appearances, Simon. Always professional, informative, hopeful. Thank you.
And thanks for compiling the six succinct, disqualifying points voters will come to know about Trump as the election nears. Have copied and pasted them into my notes to re-read enough to insert into conversations with others. Very helpful.
As the chaos continues to swirl around Trump, I firmly believe that, as in 2020, the American people will choose a serene, trustworthy, competent team over a hot mess.
Looking forward to the day we will no longer have to see or think of Trump ever again. But, first the work to get there...
"In the most troubled community, it’s a small number of people doing those things, and the core of many of the worst crime problems lie in various kinds of collectivities — gangs, drug crews, drug markets — rather than in individuals."
"Don't Shoot: One Man, a Street Fellowship, and the End of Violence in Inner City America", p268
Just saw the CNN poll Biden trails Trump in All the battle ground states (within the margin of error) but the war in Gaza, the domestic issues gas, groceries, housing cost, inflation are killing him...... I don't trust polls BUT, he's not that popular with the younger voters or the ethnic voters
Mack, these are literally Republican talking points about the election. Almost word for word. I am assuming you are a legit member here but let's be clear about a few things:
1) like the CBS polls, all these state polls have the race within margin of error. The new Morning Consult track has the national race tied - where almost all the polls are now.
2) The Hill is a right leaning newspaper, and these polls are about 2-3 puts more R than the CBS polls that came out on Sunday.
3) These polls like all the other polls have our Senate candidates up, and Stein ahead in NC.
This data is consistent with how I've been writing about the race - close and competitive, battlegrounds closing, senate/NC gov advantage, congressional generic moving in our direction, House polling promising.
Please temper your remarks next time, and stay within the data. None of this is "killing him."
Simon I am a legit member, the poll I was referring to was the CNN 4/28/2024 cnn-poll that shows Biden trailing in the battle ground states, I even noted (within the margin of error). My question was with all the unrest with the war in Gaza, the high cost of basic needs like groceries, gasoline, young voters and voters of color turning away their willingness to sit this election out.... This is reminiscent of 1968 election. I was there and voted and watched my party tear itself apart. Biden and Harris are liked but not loved by the average voter. He needs to be more granular by identifying who are the real culprit's are for our inflation and high prices.
Finally, be careful who you attack, I'll put my Democratic cred's against anyones In 1952 I was helping my mother do lit drops for Adlai Stevenson, stuffing envelopes for John Kennedy in 1960, Bobby in "68"... Worked as an staff asst. Gov. John Gilligan, raised money for presidential run of Lloyd Benson, John Glenn.... By the way I am a paid member...
Simon doesn’t “attack” He informs and educates us to his area of expertise. Read his bona fides; he is an Einstein in Political Analysis and experience in his fields. I am amazed daily in his generosity and patience in educating all of us to the science of his expertise. It’s unequaled in what’s offered and way below any pay grade. A patriot working to raise armies of patriots to save our democracy.
Simon, I do not know how to thank you for all your work.
I so agree about Joe & Kamala winning
Our issues are going to be, the threats on voters, AI disinformation, and the state of mind of 6 Justices ( and of some federalist judges... Thank goodness for Democracy Docket ))
Trump looks weak and ineffective now. He looked weak and ineffective in 2020 during COVID. Breaking the strong man persona is key to winning. A large minority of voters don’t care that he’s cruel or wants to be a dictator but they’ll lose interest as Trump withers. We need to continue to contrast Biden’s bold leadership with Trump’s pathetic displays and fake gold awards.
I will continue to post this information regarding poll quality. The 538 polling page has included partisan markers for the some of the polls. It is somewhat helpful. Don't forget to ask important questions about how a given poll conducts their polling. Who they poll and how it is conducted is important. For types of voters: LV>RV>A.
Simon can probably add a few more salient questions to ask about polling.
********************
538's ten highest graded polls based on historically accuracy, their bias, transparency and are they doing a bunch of copy and paste.
Another question is modelling – i.e. how the responses are "weighed", for instance to compensate for low-response demographics such as young voters who rarely answer the pollsters’ calls.
Yet another problem is the assumptions that pollsters have to make as they transition from "Registered Voters" to "Likely Voters" closer to Election Day. Obviously, evaluating partisan enthusiasm, and figuring out which groups are more or less likely to vote (and by how much), is necessarily subjective and fraught with the danger of introducing error and skewing the prediction narrative (sometimes intentionally!).
.
Yet another issue that I have – this time specifically with 538 – is that Nate Silver always added a "special sauce" to his forecasting model, to account for other factors he believed influenced elections. Fair enough, but unfortunately, Silver considered the recipe for his "special sauce" to be proprietary (i.e. secret) – which meant 538’s analytic modelling could neither be checked nor replicated by anybody else!
As far as I know, 538’s fundamental opaqueness has not been rectified after Silver’s departure.
I think this clip on YouTube captures the segment you were talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXVOJHRvR5A
Cheryl, that was excellent! Thanks for sharing.
Simon you are the highlight of my day everyday. I'm so glad I became a paid supporter worth every penny. I want you to know iam sending out postcards to unregistered women voters across the nation! When I feel down or angry I donate and double down writing postcards!
I agree 100%!! I’m getting started with postcards though FieldTeam6.org
Can’t wait to get involved and make a difference… Vote Blue up & down your ballots to save our Democracy.
I wish I could love this a million times!!!!!!!
🙌
Me too! I’ve been writing hundreds of postcards to swing states and will continue until the election. I think it’s a great way to make it personal for reluctant voters.
Couldn't agree more ! Got a stack of 300 for Jacky Rosen in Nevada, and in both these and others I've often played with the script & added my own phrases. Very therapeutic for those of us with severe anxiety as well
“So let me see if I can summarize where this race stands at this moment. The Republican candidate for president owes half a billion in fines for bank fraud, and is currently spending his days farting himself awake during a porn star hush money trial – and the race is tied???”
– Colin Jost
.
American voters may be behind the curve, but I am confident a decisive majority will catch up by November.
I have a basic exercise I do every morning that goes like this:
80% of voters pay no attention to anything until six weeks before a presidential election.
Which means they haven’t tuned in since the day Joe Biden was declared the victor of the 2020 election and have missed out on all of Trump’s worst behavior.
Everything new they will learn about Donald Trump is likely to make them like him less.
Everything they learn about Joe Biden is likely to make them like him more.
We got this!
I say it to myself every morning when I wake up, and it keeps me feeling very confident, no matter what the news of the day is . Cheers! 😎🇺🇸
I agree, Simon is the highlight of my day too. And I keep thinking of that remarkable 25 point spread Democratic victory in ALABAMA, because of women’s reproductive rights. I’m hoping we will alabama republicans in many many other states come November.
(alabama definition: verb, to alabama: to decisively defeat one’s opponents at the ballot box)
My one remaining worry is Steve Bannon and his ilk. Dirty tricks are coming, and I hope the Biden campaign is preparing for that onslaught.
Thank you for the comments on Vice President Harris. I have always considered her an extremely intelligent, competent, and confident person. I have never understood why folks I know see her as inauthentic.
Fundamentally, a lot of Americans have a problem with women, dark-skinned women in particular.
🎯🎯🎯
I can’t qWHITE put my finger on why people don’t like Madame VP.
This newsletter puts current events into perspective and points out the hopeful, positive political happenings of the day. Who says politics can't be positive?
VP Harris will be in Jacksonville ,Florida 😎 tomorrow, May 1st.Jacksonville, nicknamed “The Bold City”, is our largest and youngest city with an average age of 36. May 1st is the first day our draconian 6-week abortion ban will be in effect.
Tony at Postcards To Voters told me that Floridians for Reproductive Freedom, the org behind Amendment 4, has not yet requested a postcard campaign.
Let’s contact them to request a campaign and get this postcarding party started ! ✍️ ⬇️ https://floridareprofreedom.org/contact-us/
Thanks to all Hopium members who helped flip Jacksonville’s mayoral seat Blue💙 with the election of Donna Deegan !!
GOTV and 📣 YES on Amendment 4 in Florida !!
There is also Florida Women's Freedom Coalition with Simon's old friend Anna Hochkammer https://floridawomensfreedomcoalition.com/
I am so glad that the Biden/Harris campaign and the DNC are putting effort into Florida. I don’t think the state has to be as red as it’s been, the influx of retirees notwithstanding. I think the problem was with the state Democratic Party and poor leadership. Now that Nikki Fried is in charge, the Florida Democrats are getting their mojo back. I’m glad to see Madame VP helping!
Simon I loved hearing what you said to Lawrence O’Donnell’s viewers last night. Especially the kudos to VP Harris! I’m glad she is feeling the love these days! 💙
Lawrence bringing up VP Harris on his show last night needs to be done more often. They are a team and she's done so much to stump for Joe.
I've been following VP Harris on twitter for 2 years. At first, I was uneasy about what would happen should something happen to Joe. But after following her, I see someone who has grown into the job both in domestic and foreign affairs and leaves me with no doubts should she have to step into the Office of the President.
Incredible work--not just the hard daily work of Hopium--but the many podcasts and cable news appearances, Simon. Always professional, informative, hopeful. Thank you.
And thanks for compiling the six succinct, disqualifying points voters will come to know about Trump as the election nears. Have copied and pasted them into my notes to re-read enough to insert into conversations with others. Very helpful.
As the chaos continues to swirl around Trump, I firmly believe that, as in 2020, the American people will choose a serene, trustworthy, competent team over a hot mess.
Looking forward to the day we will no longer have to see or think of Trump ever again. But, first the work to get there...
Then that is our collective loss.
Used in 50+ cities to greatly reduce crime.
"In the most troubled community, it’s a small number of people doing those things, and the core of many of the worst crime problems lie in various kinds of collectivities — gangs, drug crews, drug markets — rather than in individuals."
"Don't Shoot: One Man, a Street Fellowship, and the End of Violence in Inner City America", p268
Just saw the CNN poll Biden trails Trump in All the battle ground states (within the margin of error) but the war in Gaza, the domestic issues gas, groceries, housing cost, inflation are killing him...... I don't trust polls BUT, he's not that popular with the younger voters or the ethnic voters
Mack, these are literally Republican talking points about the election. Almost word for word. I am assuming you are a legit member here but let's be clear about a few things:
1) like the CBS polls, all these state polls have the race within margin of error. The new Morning Consult track has the national race tied - where almost all the polls are now.
2) The Hill is a right leaning newspaper, and these polls are about 2-3 puts more R than the CBS polls that came out on Sunday.
3) These polls like all the other polls have our Senate candidates up, and Stein ahead in NC.
This data is consistent with how I've been writing about the race - close and competitive, battlegrounds closing, senate/NC gov advantage, congressional generic moving in our direction, House polling promising.
Please temper your remarks next time, and stay within the data. None of this is "killing him."
Thank you.
Simon I am a legit member, the poll I was referring to was the CNN 4/28/2024 cnn-poll that shows Biden trailing in the battle ground states, I even noted (within the margin of error). My question was with all the unrest with the war in Gaza, the high cost of basic needs like groceries, gasoline, young voters and voters of color turning away their willingness to sit this election out.... This is reminiscent of 1968 election. I was there and voted and watched my party tear itself apart. Biden and Harris are liked but not loved by the average voter. He needs to be more granular by identifying who are the real culprit's are for our inflation and high prices.
Finally, be careful who you attack, I'll put my Democratic cred's against anyones In 1952 I was helping my mother do lit drops for Adlai Stevenson, stuffing envelopes for John Kennedy in 1960, Bobby in "68"... Worked as an staff asst. Gov. John Gilligan, raised money for presidential run of Lloyd Benson, John Glenn.... By the way I am a paid member...
Simon doesn’t “attack” He informs and educates us to his area of expertise. Read his bona fides; he is an Einstein in Political Analysis and experience in his fields. I am amazed daily in his generosity and patience in educating all of us to the science of his expertise. It’s unequaled in what’s offered and way below any pay grade. A patriot working to raise armies of patriots to save our democracy.
That CNN poll had basically equal numbers of women and men . In real life try like 52-48 women to men or even 53-47.
Simon, I do not know how to thank you for all your work.
I so agree about Joe & Kamala winning
Our issues are going to be, the threats on voters, AI disinformation, and the state of mind of 6 Justices ( and of some federalist judges... Thank goodness for Democracy Docket ))
But we shall fight
Trump looks weak and ineffective now. He looked weak and ineffective in 2020 during COVID. Breaking the strong man persona is key to winning. A large minority of voters don’t care that he’s cruel or wants to be a dictator but they’ll lose interest as Trump withers. We need to continue to contrast Biden’s bold leadership with Trump’s pathetic displays and fake gold awards.
* fake golf awards
Mar-a-Lago is a place that allows Little Donald to mope and play with his tiny white balls.
PRICELESS LOL
LMAO. That made my day.
I will continue to post this information regarding poll quality. The 538 polling page has included partisan markers for the some of the polls. It is somewhat helpful. Don't forget to ask important questions about how a given poll conducts their polling. Who they poll and how it is conducted is important. For types of voters: LV>RV>A.
Simon can probably add a few more salient questions to ask about polling.
********************
538's ten highest graded polls based on historically accuracy, their bias, transparency and are they doing a bunch of copy and paste.
1. NYT/ Sienna College
2. ABC News/ WaPo
3. Marquette Univ. Law School
4. YouGov
5. Monmouth Univ. Polling Institute
6. Suffolk Univ.
7. Marist College
8. Emerson College
9. Mass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion
10. Data Orbital
Another question is modelling – i.e. how the responses are "weighed", for instance to compensate for low-response demographics such as young voters who rarely answer the pollsters’ calls.
Yet another problem is the assumptions that pollsters have to make as they transition from "Registered Voters" to "Likely Voters" closer to Election Day. Obviously, evaluating partisan enthusiasm, and figuring out which groups are more or less likely to vote (and by how much), is necessarily subjective and fraught with the danger of introducing error and skewing the prediction narrative (sometimes intentionally!).
.
Yet another issue that I have – this time specifically with 538 – is that Nate Silver always added a "special sauce" to his forecasting model, to account for other factors he believed influenced elections. Fair enough, but unfortunately, Silver considered the recipe for his "special sauce" to be proprietary (i.e. secret) – which meant 538’s analytic modelling could neither be checked nor replicated by anybody else!
As far as I know, 538’s fundamental opaqueness has not been rectified after Silver’s departure.