Biden's Strong Launch, "Freedom," Fighting GOP Efforts to Crash The US Economy, 2 Events This Week

The Monday Newsletter/Welcome New Subscribers!

It’s Monday! Here are things we are working on, thinking about:

Biden’s Strong Re-election Launch - Last week the Biden Presidential campaign turned on, producing both a very compelling announcement video and a muscular and strong initial battleground states television ad. As I write in those two linked posts I think the campaign’s initial framing - freedom, courage, patriotism, democracy, etc - is bold, confident, effective and just really good. It gives all of us so much to work with, and is yet another reason why as we head into 2024 I would much rather be us than them. I’ve donated and signed up for the campaign and hope you will too.

I will be talking about the Biden launch in a Hopium community pop-up political briefing this Wed at 8pm EST. Sign up for the Zoom coordinates here, and for those who can’t make it live it will be recorded and available here on the site.

You can also find me quoted about the launch in the following articles:

The Analyst Who Saw Through 2022’s Red Mirage Has a Prediction for 2024 - Greg Sargent, Washington Post

Joe Biden Isn’t Popular. That Might Not Matter in 2024 - Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic

Biden Faces Hurdles To Repeat in 2024 - Francesa Chambers, USA Today

Biden’s the favorite for reelection despite bad polls. How come? - David Lauter, LA Times

Biden Is Following Newsom’s Lead and Reclaiming The Word ‘Freedom’ - Joe Garofoli, SF Chronicle

Biden’s ‘Freedom"‘ Campaign A Redux of 2020 With or Without Trump - Naomi Lin, Washington Examiner

Democrats See Biden As Best Hope Against Republicans Challengers, Joseph Stepansky, Al Jazeera

Kick Republicans while down and win big - Kerry Eleveld, Daily Kos

GOP Extremists Are Pushing the US Towards Recession and Default - It’s been a core premise of our work here at Hopium that the GOP’s unprecedented willingness to force America to default on its debts was going to create a big opening for Joe Biden and the Democrats to go on offense on the economy, and win this big argument with MAGA this year. Well, here we are. The debate is now here, fellow info warriors, and it is one we simply must win, together.

Our primary focus this month will be on the economy and the GOP’s economic strategy, which is every bit as extreme as their approach to abortion, guns, race, and democracy. Plan on watching my May With Democrats Things Get Better which I will be presenting next Tuesday, May 9th at 1pm EST (RSVP here). It is full of data and narratives which will be helpful to anyone engaging in this debate.

Here are some topline nuggets about Biden’s economic achievements from my recent look at the April jobs report, and be sure to read my take on the Economist cover story on the success of the American economy over the past generation:

• GDP growth over 3%, 3 times what it was under Trump

• 6 times as many Biden jobs as the last 3 GOP Presidents combined

• best COVID recovery in G7

• lowest unemployment rate in peacetime economy since WWII

• lowest poverty/uninsured rates ever

• very elevated wage gains/new business starts

• 2 job openings per unemployed person, a record

• real earnings up in 2022

• the deficit went up every year under Trump and has come down every year under Biden

• domestic oil production on track to set records in 2023

• historic investments in our future prosperity (infrastructure, CHIPs, climate, health care)

Early Vote Starts Today in Jacksonville - We are now officially in the home stretch in Jax as early vote starts today for the May 16th election. Hope everyone will do at least one thing to help the dynamic Donna Deegan flip this seat - donate, text, call, write postcards. You can find ways to help Donna on her site, and to learn more watch this recent interview I did with her. This is an important pick up opportunity and am grateful for everyone who is helping out here.

The Fight for Democracy In Israel - On Thursday I hosted prominent Israeli journalist Amir Tibon for a look at the consequential fight for democracy in Israel. It was a great conversation - hope you can watch. This discussion is an important reminder that the struggle against authoritarianism is a global one, and that we can gain strength and inspiration from one another.

Workshopping A New Agenda for Women and Families - A few weeks ago I asked our community to join me in workshopping what I’m calling (for now) “A New Agenda for Women and Families.” We’ve gotten a lot of great comments - thanks, everyone! Check out the original concept memo and weigh in if you haven’t yet. There is something here and I want to keep exploring it. This is an area where we need to go on offense now, not let the right continue to get there first and push us around. We can and must do better here.

Upcoming Events

Wed, 8pm EST - A Political Briefing With Simon - RSVP here for the Zoom coordinates. This event will be recorded for those who can’t catch it live.

Thur, 3pm EST - Increasing Youth Registration - A Conversation With Laura Brill of the Civics Center - Learn more and RSVP here.

Tuesday, May 9th, 1pm EST - The May Presentation of With Democrats Things Get Better - RSVP Here

Tues, May 9th, 8 pm ET - Carolina Forward & All In For North Carolina (AINC) Joint Event - Learn more, RSVP here.

Tuesday, May 16th, 1pm EST - My Monthly Political Briefing (Save The Date)

Wednesday, May 24th, 8pm EST - Paid Subscriber Briefing and Hang Out with Simon - Learn More, RSVP

Hopium Housekeeping - If you are new to Hopium be sure to read my welcome statement and Ron Brownstein’s interview with me in the Atlantic.  Together they do a good job of explaining why I’ve shuttered NDN and have set up shop here at Substack. For those who like podcasts, this interview with How We Win is also a very good introduction to what we are trying to do here.

Note there’s s a lot of material on the H/C site itself as I have brought some of my work over the past two decades along with me. Do explore. There is a lot of good stuff on the site.

Sarting on May 1st, the ability to comment on posts will only be available to paid subscribers.

Happy Monday All! Keep working hard - Simon