What Johnson is doing--my God, who knows? Without getting too specific, a fairly senior person at a financial institution said internally that the first metric he checks each morning is the spot price of oil ($98 today), which he called "unsustainable." People really should be prepared for the economic consequences of this war, and I agree with Simon that the media in the U.S. has not been covering it accurately. I also saw a clip from a former nat security advisor that confirms we blundered into this war, mostly by Hegseth's confidence that terrible costly bombing would just work. And Iran would just fold. It's really a calamity. If the resolution in Iran doesn't include opening the Strait and bringing oil prices down, the economy will pay the price either way.
Once again, trumplicans pretend to care about national and international security when they don't. Actually funding DHS but cutting spending for the Gestapo would prove one cares about security. Cutting $$$ for the military and spending it on their housing, on healthcare, on protecting the environment, etc., would show they give a damn.
I'm so sick of these trumplicans who claim they are pro-life when they aren't. Each day, I look forward to the obituaries of so many. Each day, I'm disappointed in the lack of obituaries.
I'm not sure whether I should reach for the popcorn bowl to watch the current hot mess unfold or the kleenex box to wipe my eyes from our dysfunctional democracy. Are we at the "it's always darkest before the dawn" moment? It surely could get darker, but also this seems like one of those cracks Simon talks about. Many things are true at once right now. So maybe I both pop the popcorn and shed a tear.
Once T**** was re-elected and handed both Houses of Congress, there was no avoiding some kind of Lovecraftian horror. Democrats responded by getting to work doing everything we could to mitigate and slow the damage. We can't stop all of it, of course, but we have achieved a lot!
Republicans, on the other hand, seem to think we are in a game of chicken, and act like there are no real stakes involved. And Rs seem to forget they are in the majority and calling the shots. It's bonkers.
So, yeah, get out the popcorn and have a good cry. The only way out of all this is through, but I agree this feels like a crack - a big one - that is showing some light, even if it is a long way off still.
What’s fascinating about this to me, and maybe I just haven’t seen it printed anywhere, but I would bet almost certainly that if Johnson actually put this thing on the floor, it would pass. He’s just afraid because it would pass with more Democratic votes than Republican votes, and he doesn’t want the black eye. I’m not sure how, but I’m beginning to think that the chances are increasing again that the gavel switches in some miraculous fashion before the midterms… Special elections, party switches… Maybe one of the 35 people retiring or two decide to become independent on their way out… Some combination of vacating, the chair, having another vote, and either there’s 218 votes for Hakeem Jeffries, or there are enough abstentions that the Democrats get more votes than the Republicans. We will see, but I do not at all think this is out of the realm of possibility… We are headed into fucking bizarro world.
I heard somewhere, and I don't know if it is true, that even if Rs become the minority, they don't have to elect a new Speaker until the next Congress. And even if there is an automatic requirement to elect a new Speaker in that case, I doubt Rs would care about some rule that isn't in their favor.
Each major party chooses their candidate for Speaker. The full House of Representatives votes for the Speaker on its first day of a new Congress (every two years on January 3). If the majority party changes after the November midterm elections, the incoming majority party will caucus to choose a new candidate for Speaker, who is then elected in January by receiving a majority of votes cast. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL30857
Yes but there is also a "motion to vacate". In that case the Speaker would be removed. I would assume there is a new election at that point. Johnson could be removed.
If the Republican-led House agrees to a motion to vacate before January 3, 2027 when the new Congress is seated and poised to vote for Speaker, I would not count on the Republican-led House to vote for a Democrat as Speaker in 2026. The U.S. Constitution does not require the Speaker to be a Member of the House. A Republican majority could choose Stephen Miller or anyone else, although a current member of the House has been the tradition.
I completely agree with you on this, with one caveat… I don’t think that we should absolutely assume that there will be a Republican majority all the way through this calendar year… We could hit rough enough waters that a couple people who are retiring switched to independent and join a motion to vacate, or we could have some people switch parties to the Democrats and flip the majority if they think it’s the only way that they can save their ass… I’m not saying it’s likely, I’m saying it is more possible than ever because we are going to be in some very uncharted territory in the coming months, and I think we have to have big enough imaginations to consider unthinkable. Possibilities in normal times. And we also have to be thinking about how we can get as much power in our hands as possible as soon as possible… It’s like Simon‘s been mentioning, we can’t just wait until January 3to start trying to push the brakes on some of these god-awful policies… So any and every option needs to be on the table, and it needs to be in our consciousness as a possibility for us to even try to pursue it.
So, PianoMan, it must be time to leave my computer because I thought you wrote: "if Johnson actually put HIS thing on the floor..." but I know you are not as immature as I am so I had to reread it cause I knew THAT couldn't be RIGHT.
Simon. Are you suggesting that we start asking/pushing/imploring our electeds to call for a national unity government? I completely agree with you about this. There’s very little schadenfreude here, as we’re all being fleeced and threatened by the insanity. I wonder if Raskin, Booker, Schiff, Klobuchar, Murphy, Buttigieg, Slotkin, AOC etc. and maybe also some governors and AG’s might be having these talks now under the radar, maybe with Murkowski, Tillis, Massie. Maybe Sen. Kennedy too (whose takedown of Noem was breathtaking). Just wondering about the timing. What do you think?
Thanks for this. The damage being done is immense and very worrisome. Reading earlier on another Substack about the damage to the military and we are heading for a very bad place, the place that all of us warned about. I have long said that the only two things that can stop the damage that Trump is doing is the financial markets and Republicans, it seems like we are getting there. No disrespect intended to the No Kings protests and grassroots organizing, both of which I have been involved with and which are having their own real impact.
Trump and Republican legislators are trying to convince themselves they “see the light at the end of the tunnel” – not realizing it’s the train coming the other way.
What about the possibility that the Senate Republicans agreed to pass the bill in their chamber because they knew that the House/Johnson would reject it, according to a behind-closed-doors collusion.
Maybe. But I see two things that make me think that wasn't the case. First, they should have negotiated that ahead of time, during which they would have realized how stupid and disorganized that makes them look. Second, that was the same move Johnson did with the Epstein Transparency Act, thinking the Senate wouldn't pass it, so they know that isn't a reliable tactic.
I hope all the airlines - not just Delta - don't give Reps and Sens (esp GOP) any special treatment as they fly out for their recess. I can just see them standing in TSA lines!! 😂
GOP in disarray!!
And the Dem leadership has actually played a blinder here.
No one can try and argue that this shutdown is not 100% on Repubs now.
What Johnson is doing--my God, who knows? Without getting too specific, a fairly senior person at a financial institution said internally that the first metric he checks each morning is the spot price of oil ($98 today), which he called "unsustainable." People really should be prepared for the economic consequences of this war, and I agree with Simon that the media in the U.S. has not been covering it accurately. I also saw a clip from a former nat security advisor that confirms we blundered into this war, mostly by Hegseth's confidence that terrible costly bombing would just work. And Iran would just fold. It's really a calamity. If the resolution in Iran doesn't include opening the Strait and bringing oil prices down, the economy will pay the price either way.
Once again, trumplicans pretend to care about national and international security when they don't. Actually funding DHS but cutting spending for the Gestapo would prove one cares about security. Cutting $$$ for the military and spending it on their housing, on healthcare, on protecting the environment, etc., would show they give a damn.
I'm so sick of these trumplicans who claim they are pro-life when they aren't. Each day, I look forward to the obituaries of so many. Each day, I'm disappointed in the lack of obituaries.
I'm not sure whether I should reach for the popcorn bowl to watch the current hot mess unfold or the kleenex box to wipe my eyes from our dysfunctional democracy. Are we at the "it's always darkest before the dawn" moment? It surely could get darker, but also this seems like one of those cracks Simon talks about. Many things are true at once right now. So maybe I both pop the popcorn and shed a tear.
Once T**** was re-elected and handed both Houses of Congress, there was no avoiding some kind of Lovecraftian horror. Democrats responded by getting to work doing everything we could to mitigate and slow the damage. We can't stop all of it, of course, but we have achieved a lot!
Republicans, on the other hand, seem to think we are in a game of chicken, and act like there are no real stakes involved. And Rs seem to forget they are in the majority and calling the shots. It's bonkers.
So, yeah, get out the popcorn and have a good cry. The only way out of all this is through, but I agree this feels like a crack - a big one - that is showing some light, even if it is a long way off still.
What’s fascinating about this to me, and maybe I just haven’t seen it printed anywhere, but I would bet almost certainly that if Johnson actually put this thing on the floor, it would pass. He’s just afraid because it would pass with more Democratic votes than Republican votes, and he doesn’t want the black eye. I’m not sure how, but I’m beginning to think that the chances are increasing again that the gavel switches in some miraculous fashion before the midterms… Special elections, party switches… Maybe one of the 35 people retiring or two decide to become independent on their way out… Some combination of vacating, the chair, having another vote, and either there’s 218 votes for Hakeem Jeffries, or there are enough abstentions that the Democrats get more votes than the Republicans. We will see, but I do not at all think this is out of the realm of possibility… We are headed into fucking bizarro world.
From your lips to God’s ears!
I heard somewhere, and I don't know if it is true, that even if Rs become the minority, they don't have to elect a new Speaker until the next Congress. And even if there is an automatic requirement to elect a new Speaker in that case, I doubt Rs would care about some rule that isn't in their favor.
Each major party chooses their candidate for Speaker. The full House of Representatives votes for the Speaker on its first day of a new Congress (every two years on January 3). If the majority party changes after the November midterm elections, the incoming majority party will caucus to choose a new candidate for Speaker, who is then elected in January by receiving a majority of votes cast. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL30857
Yes but there is also a "motion to vacate". In that case the Speaker would be removed. I would assume there is a new election at that point. Johnson could be removed.
If the Republican-led House agrees to a motion to vacate before January 3, 2027 when the new Congress is seated and poised to vote for Speaker, I would not count on the Republican-led House to vote for a Democrat as Speaker in 2026. The U.S. Constitution does not require the Speaker to be a Member of the House. A Republican majority could choose Stephen Miller or anyone else, although a current member of the House has been the tradition.
I completely agree with you on this, with one caveat… I don’t think that we should absolutely assume that there will be a Republican majority all the way through this calendar year… We could hit rough enough waters that a couple people who are retiring switched to independent and join a motion to vacate, or we could have some people switch parties to the Democrats and flip the majority if they think it’s the only way that they can save their ass… I’m not saying it’s likely, I’m saying it is more possible than ever because we are going to be in some very uncharted territory in the coming months, and I think we have to have big enough imaginations to consider unthinkable. Possibilities in normal times. And we also have to be thinking about how we can get as much power in our hands as possible as soon as possible… It’s like Simon‘s been mentioning, we can’t just wait until January 3to start trying to push the brakes on some of these god-awful policies… So any and every option needs to be on the table, and it needs to be in our consciousness as a possibility for us to even try to pursue it.
So, PianoMan, it must be time to leave my computer because I thought you wrote: "if Johnson actually put HIS thing on the floor..." but I know you are not as immature as I am so I had to reread it cause I knew THAT couldn't be RIGHT.
I am exactly that immature, but but I didn’t think to act on it in this particular instance 😂😂
I think that is very possible.
Thanks for the update. Yes, Repugs in disarray!
Could it be, just throwing this out there, that our democracy is actually starting to take hold here?
Simon. Are you suggesting that we start asking/pushing/imploring our electeds to call for a national unity government? I completely agree with you about this. There’s very little schadenfreude here, as we’re all being fleeced and threatened by the insanity. I wonder if Raskin, Booker, Schiff, Klobuchar, Murphy, Buttigieg, Slotkin, AOC etc. and maybe also some governors and AG’s might be having these talks now under the radar, maybe with Murkowski, Tillis, Massie. Maybe Sen. Kennedy too (whose takedown of Noem was breathtaking). Just wondering about the timing. What do you think?
Someone alert Bondi that the market is way below 50,000 at the moment. The chaos is delicious to watch except that people are hurt by it.
Thanks for this. The damage being done is immense and very worrisome. Reading earlier on another Substack about the damage to the military and we are heading for a very bad place, the place that all of us warned about. I have long said that the only two things that can stop the damage that Trump is doing is the financial markets and Republicans, it seems like we are getting there. No disrespect intended to the No Kings protests and grassroots organizing, both of which I have been involved with and which are having their own real impact.
It’s a 2-prong war, at a minimum.
Trump and Republican legislators are trying to convince themselves they “see the light at the end of the tunnel” – not realizing it’s the train coming the other way.
I laughed out loud at that!
They are All really Bat-Shit Crazy!!
I am going out to a wonderful Italian Restaurant with excellent food. First I am going to have a Ketel One Martini and enjoy the rest of the evening!
If they take their Heads out of they're Assess and start making some sense, I'll check later.
Cheers!
Having a Ketel One with ya, Millie, but back at The Beacon
What about the possibility that the Senate Republicans agreed to pass the bill in their chamber because they knew that the House/Johnson would reject it, according to a behind-closed-doors collusion.
Maybe. But I see two things that make me think that wasn't the case. First, they should have negotiated that ahead of time, during which they would have realized how stupid and disorganized that makes them look. Second, that was the same move Johnson did with the Epstein Transparency Act, thinking the Senate wouldn't pass it, so they know that isn't a reliable tactic.
I doubt the Republicans will find the midterm results a joke.
Speaker said Trump will assure TSA agents are paid.
I hope all the airlines - not just Delta - don't give Reps and Sens (esp GOP) any special treatment as they fly out for their recess. I can just see them standing in TSA lines!! 😂