I have actually been far more shocked at all the other polls – the ones that showed American voters having more confidence in Trump on economic policy. Seriously??
– The guy who gave tax cuts almost exclusively benefiting corporations and the very rich?
– The guy who increased our national debt by more than 40 %?
– The guy who tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act?
– The guy who has repeatedly proposed cutting Social Security for America’s seniors?
Since about reagan, Rs have always been viewed as better on the economy and it isn't even close. This, IMO, has much to do with MSM propaganda. Many people alive today do not even remember reagan so we can't keep blaming him; also, people think if you are rich, you are better on the economy. We may know trump is a con artist, but that doesn't matter to a lot of people; they just see a really rich guy. In the 80s in NYC trump wasn't the only popular rich guy; so was John Gotti, and everyone knew he was a murderer who made his money illegally. So, there's that. How is a HS history teacher ever gonna know how to run an economy better than a rich guy? That's what we're up against. That DOES not mean, however, that people will vote for the rich guy; people like the football coach, the veteran, the real straight talker, a lot better than a rich maniac.
People like the football coach, the straight talker – IF his voice is allowed to be really heard. The problem with Fox News, Newsmax, OAN and right-wing talk radio is that this and other good voices are shut out. That is a very dangerous development and an existential threat to democracy.
So agree. All the data points to Biden’s economic policy creating a far better economy for all. All i can think is that people believe false reporting and data.
What a week it has been. We just wanted to offer our piece to the conversation:
First, here is an article from David regarding the historic Biden legacy, and his Mt. Rushmore presidency (https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/p/teach-them-how-to-say-goodbye). And here is an article from me on the GOP dictionary debacle (they have a nasty and well-worn habit of calling everybody who disagrees with them a "communist" or a "Marxist"). It's getting old rather quickly.
Let's keep the momentum going! Also, Simon, have you heard any of the reports regarding private polling in Ohio? There have been suggestions that those polls show Trump under 50% (whereas before he won Ohio with 53% of the vote in 2020).
Sincerely,
Michael and David Salzillo
Writers of The Political Pulse of America and Salzillo's Two Cents
We are, at last, looking at polls where our Democratic gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina, Josh Stein, is pulling ahead of insanely MAGA Republican candidate Mark Robinson. Who has pulled the exact same confusing rhetoric around his abortion stance (which is, keep your skirts down women, or you deserve what you get) as Trump has tried to do by distancing himself from his absolute anti-abortion stance. I'd cite the polls, but they really are not reputable. Which makes it more interesting that Josh is ahead by four points in them. We are enormously encouraged with the volunteer turnout because of Kamala Harris (10,000 new volunteers) and our work gets easier for breaking the NC GOP Supermajority! https://www.countytocountync.org/2024-candidates
I'm in NC, too but I think in a different part of the state than Cat. The issue where I am (Mecklenburg County) is getting registered Dems out to vote! We already had plans for a massive door knocking campaign before Biden made his decision. With enthusiasm way up, I am getting more optimistic.
When Biden was still the candidate and before the debate, there was talk of reverse coattails (down ballot races getting Dems out to vote the top of the ticket). Now with Harris & Walz, I think the coattail effect could work both ways.
I completely agree with you, Cheryl! We're working hard on both Nicole Sidman's and Woodson Bradley's races in Mecklenburg (for others: Nicole is running to win against Tricia Cotham, who switched from Democrat to Republican and created an NC GOP supermajority that has run amok, including massive changes to abortion rights and voting rights). So it's INCREDIBLY high stakes here. Thank you, Cheryl, for your work there!
I've been writing postcards for Nicole and phonebanking for Woodson. Did you see the great anti-Cotham postcard design? I really hope we crush her at the ballot box.
I am big supporters of both Nicole and Woodson, but don't have the stamina to canvass especially with the heat, so I do what I can.
everyone does what they can! We planned a canvass for Dante Pittman in Wilson, and Tropical Storm Debby caused flooding there on Saturday. It's always something. But with phone banking, we're seeing a fair percentage of replies. Plus, those phone banks help Dems clean up the voters rolls heading into the election.
I know what you mean about canvassing: i have been canvassing for two candidates in Miami for the past 2 months. It is brutal, but I take along a thermos of ice water, wear a hat, use sun block and wear a cold towel around my neck. I am acclimating, and when I reach a potential voter it is usually gratifying.
It's already happening. We just need better state level polls right now. The current ones are highly partisan. Harris opened a Republicans for Harris office three days ago (headed by a well-respected, retired NC Supreme Court justice, and her campaign reported that NC had more new volunteers than almost any other state (10,000 new volunteers). We're seeing new Democratic registrations go up, and I can't wait to see what the polls say. https://www.notus.org/harris-2024/north-carolina-democrats-kamala-harris I will note that I did the math in 2008, when Obama won the electoral college votes for NC. He did that by just 11 votes per precinct. It was a salutary lesson in every vote counts. On the downside of this, we have the most gerrymandered state in the union right now for our state level and U.S. rep races.
The very one. And THANK YOU for donating to Stein and sending cards! It was funny when Simon posted that he knew Josh Stein's sister, Gerda Stein. I worked with her briefly when she was comm director at the Center for Death Penalty Litigation. She, Josh, and the whole family are social justice warriors.
Thank you Simon 🙏🏻 for leading us and preparing us politically to face the headwinds while “ doing more” and now leading us to work harder than ever but now with JOY in Whoville ( whoops Hopium!) What a great community you’ve invited us into.
Such great news!!!!! And, Simon, Heather's Herd's Giving Circle Tending to Democracy has chosen North Carolina as the recipient of our fundraising. As you know, the state houses are critical to ensuring a Democratic governor cannot have his veto overridden. You will find an invitation from us in your email as we would love to have you join us on our kickoff Zoom.
I look at it differently: The biggest key is turnout!
If 85–90 % of Democrats vote, and only 65–75 % of Trumpists do, we’ll get to 55, have a Blue Wave election, and kick MAGA Fascism onto the dustbin of history where it belongs!
Simon, thank you so much for everything; you provide a focus for my efforts and I can’t tell you how much I appreciate it. I’m wondering about limits for campaign contributions, as some in this community may want to apportion their giving appropriately. For example, is the Harris campaign we’re donating to a PAC? I can’t tell from act blue.
Dear Simon, Thank you so much for ALL you are doing—and encouraging the Hopium community to do!!
I am looking for reassurance that a MAIN function of these fabulous Harris-Walz rallies is ROBUST VOTER REGISTRATION!! We need to have these thousands of people registered and be ready and able to contact them more than once this fall to be sure they 1) know where to vote, and 2) know about early voting times and places in their state!
I think we should also be focusing on encouraging folks especially in states like Georgia, Alabama and others who have purged their voter roles. These folks need to check their registration status soon.
IWillVote or vote.gov are two ways to check registration status online. If they miss the cutoff, then they have to vote in person, but they must ask for a provisional ballot and by law the poll workers must provide one to them.
If 85–90 % of Democrats vote, and only 65–75 % of Trumpists do, we’ll get to 55, have a Blue Wave election, and kick Trump and MAGA Fascism onto the dustbin of history where they belong!
Thanks for sharing this, LOVE working with them and highly recommend to everyone. We've been texting hundreds of thousands of unregistered dems in swing states to get them to register. It's easy peasy and addictive once you get trained. They do Zoom trainings every Sat, after you attend and you learn how to do it all, you can join in sessions practically every day, feels amazing!
I just got trained in textbanking with fieldteam6 this last Saturday and after loading software and the browser extension (they walk you through it all and provide written instuctions) it was dead easy to zip through the texts. I highly recommend it!
I got to live life watching the difference between evil and dementia. They are worlds apart. There is no kindness and joy in the mouths of evil. They know what they are doing. Bet you a beer, Trump will claim dementia to get out of Justice.
No one is above the law. It’s not that hard to stay out of jail or pay your taxes when you are rich. A jury of his peers found him guilty. I don’t think dementia has anything to do with it. In this country you can be as demented as you want, but live by the laws of the land (mebbe peer pressure). He and his Heritage Foundation buddies (are they demented?) will carry on. The American people are deciding if they should do I from the White House.
Him claiming dementia as a legal defense in any of his current legal struggles (Jan 6th, the classified documents, or Georgia election interference) wouldn’t hold water unless he could prove that dementia (if he has it) was already affecting his decisions four years ago, which imo is unlikely, as if he was already suffering the early stages of dementia back then, he’d probably be in worse shape rn, as these illnesses tend to progress relatively quickly.
Thinking specifically of Alzheimers; Ronald Reagan had already begun suffering some of the earliest signs during his second term in office (which iirc were mostly changes in speech patterns), and was suffering visibly enough in 1994 to be diagnosed. I remember by the time of the 2000 republican convention there was a tribute to him, as by that point he was already ill enough as to no longer be able to function on his own. And that’s Alzheimers, which from my understanding actually progresses more slowly than some other types of dementia. If Trump was already suffering early Alzheimers by the time he left office in 2021, we’d most likely no about it for sure by now.
Hi Russell, Trump's recent delusional tweet about AI, especially on top of the earlier tweet claiming Biden will be fighting at the upcoming convention, IMHO should lead any reasonable person to conclude Trump is now unwell mentally. If the MSM fails to cover this, it will be very telling.
I'm so excited to help elect Harris and Dems up and down the ballot. If, God willing, we soundly defeat MAGA in November, we need to take a hard look at how we got here. How is it that a corrupt, incompetent madman like Trump can even have a chance of winning? A "blowout" for us would be 55% of the popular vote, but that still leaves tens of millions of people voting for Trump of their own free will. That's deeply troubling. I get that job #1 is just winning, but once that is done we need ensure no one like him can rise in our politics again. I don't have the answer, but I imagine it involves some combination of helping working people class get ahead, aggressively fighting disinformation, and greatly reducing the influence of money in politics.
I would really like to see Harris/Walz go to Montana to help Jon Tester.
Any idea how close the (not necessarily correct) Montana polls, if any, are?
I have actually been far more shocked at all the other polls – the ones that showed American voters having more confidence in Trump on economic policy. Seriously??
– The guy who gave tax cuts almost exclusively benefiting corporations and the very rich?
– The guy who increased our national debt by more than 40 %?
– The guy who tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act?
– The guy who has repeatedly proposed cutting Social Security for America’s seniors?
Never made any sense to me!
Logic does not apply to MAGA. It is all emotion.
We’re not talking MAGA here. The previous polling indicated a *majority* of Americans had more confidence in Trump when it came to economic policy.
I don't get it. He was a disaster.
Precisely.
Since about reagan, Rs have always been viewed as better on the economy and it isn't even close. This, IMO, has much to do with MSM propaganda. Many people alive today do not even remember reagan so we can't keep blaming him; also, people think if you are rich, you are better on the economy. We may know trump is a con artist, but that doesn't matter to a lot of people; they just see a really rich guy. In the 80s in NYC trump wasn't the only popular rich guy; so was John Gotti, and everyone knew he was a murderer who made his money illegally. So, there's that. How is a HS history teacher ever gonna know how to run an economy better than a rich guy? That's what we're up against. That DOES not mean, however, that people will vote for the rich guy; people like the football coach, the veteran, the real straight talker, a lot better than a rich maniac.
People like the football coach, the straight talker – IF his voice is allowed to be really heard. The problem with Fox News, Newsmax, OAN and right-wing talk radio is that this and other good voices are shut out. That is a very dangerous development and an existential threat to democracy.
So agree. All the data points to Biden’s economic policy creating a far better economy for all. All i can think is that people believe false reporting and data.
Hello everyone,
What a week it has been. We just wanted to offer our piece to the conversation:
First, here is an article from David regarding the historic Biden legacy, and his Mt. Rushmore presidency (https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/p/teach-them-how-to-say-goodbye). And here is an article from me on the GOP dictionary debacle (they have a nasty and well-worn habit of calling everybody who disagrees with them a "communist" or a "Marxist"). It's getting old rather quickly.
Let's keep the momentum going! Also, Simon, have you heard any of the reports regarding private polling in Ohio? There have been suggestions that those polls show Trump under 50% (whereas before he won Ohio with 53% of the vote in 2020).
Sincerely,
Michael and David Salzillo
Writers of The Political Pulse of America and Salzillo's Two Cents
I’m a Marxist myself – a Groucho Marxist.
And me? I am a Lennonist.
As long as you’re not a McCartneyist, all is good!
More a Harrisoner. Isn’t It A Pity?
After Lennon, Harrison was next-favorite.
Here's a state-by-state list with dates for early voting and related info.
https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/
Thank you! I bookmarked it
Me, too. Thanks.
Me, too.
We are, at last, looking at polls where our Democratic gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina, Josh Stein, is pulling ahead of insanely MAGA Republican candidate Mark Robinson. Who has pulled the exact same confusing rhetoric around his abortion stance (which is, keep your skirts down women, or you deserve what you get) as Trump has tried to do by distancing himself from his absolute anti-abortion stance. I'd cite the polls, but they really are not reputable. Which makes it more interesting that Josh is ahead by four points in them. We are enormously encouraged with the volunteer turnout because of Kamala Harris (10,000 new volunteers) and our work gets easier for breaking the NC GOP Supermajority! https://www.countytocountync.org/2024-candidates
I'm in NC, too but I think in a different part of the state than Cat. The issue where I am (Mecklenburg County) is getting registered Dems out to vote! We already had plans for a massive door knocking campaign before Biden made his decision. With enthusiasm way up, I am getting more optimistic.
When Biden was still the candidate and before the debate, there was talk of reverse coattails (down ballot races getting Dems out to vote the top of the ticket). Now with Harris & Walz, I think the coattail effect could work both ways.
I completely agree with you, Cheryl! We're working hard on both Nicole Sidman's and Woodson Bradley's races in Mecklenburg (for others: Nicole is running to win against Tricia Cotham, who switched from Democrat to Republican and created an NC GOP supermajority that has run amok, including massive changes to abortion rights and voting rights). So it's INCREDIBLY high stakes here. Thank you, Cheryl, for your work there!
I've been writing postcards for Nicole and phonebanking for Woodson. Did you see the great anti-Cotham postcard design? I really hope we crush her at the ballot box.
I am big supporters of both Nicole and Woodson, but don't have the stamina to canvass especially with the heat, so I do what I can.
everyone does what they can! We planned a canvass for Dante Pittman in Wilson, and Tropical Storm Debby caused flooding there on Saturday. It's always something. But with phone banking, we're seeing a fair percentage of replies. Plus, those phone banks help Dems clean up the voters rolls heading into the election.
I know what you mean about canvassing: i have been canvassing for two candidates in Miami for the past 2 months. It is brutal, but I take along a thermos of ice water, wear a hat, use sun block and wear a cold towel around my neck. I am acclimating, and when I reach a potential voter it is usually gratifying.
Here’s to driving turnout in NC’s 2nd biggest county!
It's already happening. We just need better state level polls right now. The current ones are highly partisan. Harris opened a Republicans for Harris office three days ago (headed by a well-respected, retired NC Supreme Court justice, and her campaign reported that NC had more new volunteers than almost any other state (10,000 new volunteers). We're seeing new Democratic registrations go up, and I can't wait to see what the polls say. https://www.notus.org/harris-2024/north-carolina-democrats-kamala-harris I will note that I did the math in 2008, when Obama won the electoral college votes for NC. He did that by just 11 votes per precinct. It was a salutary lesson in every vote counts. On the downside of this, we have the most gerrymandered state in the union right now for our state level and U.S. rep races.
And while I don't trust a couple of these polls, you can see that the numbers are already MUCH better. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2024/north-carolina/
Ouch- isn’t Robinson the “ some people just need to be killed” candidate?
I’ve been rooting for and donating to Stein so thanks for the good news! Sending prayers and cards for NC from California teamies!🇺🇸GOTV NC🙌🏻
The very one. And THANK YOU for donating to Stein and sending cards! It was funny when Simon posted that he knew Josh Stein's sister, Gerda Stein. I worked with her briefly when she was comm director at the Center for Death Penalty Litigation. She, Josh, and the whole family are social justice warriors.
Your Welcome! I know if NC wins we all win!!💃🏻💃🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🇺🇸
Thanks Irene! Yes, indeed.
Here's a video the Democrats put together of Mark Robinson in his own words:
https://www.realmarkrobinson.com/
This video predates the "Some people just need to be killed" speech - delivered from the pulpit of a church no less!
https://www.politicsnc.com/p/kill-thy-neighbor?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
There is no question that we can win NC. We just have to keep working hard.
Wow- R some kind of crazy guy 🦨 😈!!
That’s good news! I’m halfway through my postcards for North Carolina.
Hi from New Jersey, Cat! So proud to donate to NC and very charged up about NC being part of Kamala's win! 🥥🌴💪
Thank you Simon 🙏🏻 for leading us and preparing us politically to face the headwinds while “ doing more” and now leading us to work harder than ever but now with JOY in Whoville ( whoops Hopium!) What a great community you’ve invited us into.
FREEDOMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Hey Simon, was there supposed to be a hyperlink to the podcast interview with David Rothkopft and Tara McGowan in your post?
I believe this is the link: https://thedsrnetwork.com/how-long-can-the-harris-high-last
But you might want to add one to your post, since not everyone checks the comments.
Not sure how that happened but I did add it online. Thank you Cheryl!
You are welcome! (And cut yourself some slack, it's Sunday!!)
Such great news!!!!! And, Simon, Heather's Herd's Giving Circle Tending to Democracy has chosen North Carolina as the recipient of our fundraising. As you know, the state houses are critical to ensuring a Democratic governor cannot have his veto overridden. You will find an invitation from us in your email as we would love to have you join us on our kickoff Zoom.
Just an observation, I have not seen much of "get to 55" lately on Hopium Chronicles. Just wondering why?
I look at it differently: The biggest key is turnout!
If 85–90 % of Democrats vote, and only 65–75 % of Trumpists do, we’ll get to 55, have a Blue Wave election, and kick MAGA Fascism onto the dustbin of history where it belongs!
Simon, thank you so much for everything; you provide a focus for my efforts and I can’t tell you how much I appreciate it. I’m wondering about limits for campaign contributions, as some in this community may want to apportion their giving appropriately. For example, is the Harris campaign we’re donating to a PAC? I can’t tell from act blue.
Dear Simon, Thank you so much for ALL you are doing—and encouraging the Hopium community to do!!
I am looking for reassurance that a MAIN function of these fabulous Harris-Walz rallies is ROBUST VOTER REGISTRATION!! We need to have these thousands of people registered and be ready and able to contact them more than once this fall to be sure they 1) know where to vote, and 2) know about early voting times and places in their state!
I think we should also be focusing on encouraging folks especially in states like Georgia, Alabama and others who have purged their voter roles. These folks need to check their registration status soon.
IWillVote or vote.gov are two ways to check registration status online. If they miss the cutoff, then they have to vote in person, but they must ask for a provisional ballot and by law the poll workers must provide one to them.
Let’s get to 55!
The key is turnout (and voter registration).
If 85–90 % of Democrats vote, and only 65–75 % of Trumpists do, we’ll get to 55, have a Blue Wave election, and kick Trump and MAGA Fascism onto the dustbin of history where they belong!
Blue tsunami. https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Thanks for sharing this, LOVE working with them and highly recommend to everyone. We've been texting hundreds of thousands of unregistered dems in swing states to get them to register. It's easy peasy and addictive once you get trained. They do Zoom trainings every Sat, after you attend and you learn how to do it all, you can join in sessions practically every day, feels amazing!
I just got trained in textbanking with fieldteam6 this last Saturday and after loading software and the browser extension (they walk you through it all and provide written instuctions) it was dead easy to zip through the texts. I highly recommend it!
Nice!!! Yay!
Just donated to NC and Nebraska, BOOM! LFG!
YAY!!! (says NC and me).
I am just twisted enough to want to meet the maga follower that believes the Harris crowds are AI … but from a safe distance.
I got to live life watching the difference between evil and dementia. They are worlds apart. There is no kindness and joy in the mouths of evil. They know what they are doing. Bet you a beer, Trump will claim dementia to get out of Justice.
*slow smile*
No one is above the law. It’s not that hard to stay out of jail or pay your taxes when you are rich. A jury of his peers found him guilty. I don’t think dementia has anything to do with it. In this country you can be as demented as you want, but live by the laws of the land (mebbe peer pressure). He and his Heritage Foundation buddies (are they demented?) will carry on. The American people are deciding if they should do I from the White House.
Pardon my French, but fuck his excuses.
Him claiming dementia as a legal defense in any of his current legal struggles (Jan 6th, the classified documents, or Georgia election interference) wouldn’t hold water unless he could prove that dementia (if he has it) was already affecting his decisions four years ago, which imo is unlikely, as if he was already suffering the early stages of dementia back then, he’d probably be in worse shape rn, as these illnesses tend to progress relatively quickly.
Thinking specifically of Alzheimers; Ronald Reagan had already begun suffering some of the earliest signs during his second term in office (which iirc were mostly changes in speech patterns), and was suffering visibly enough in 1994 to be diagnosed. I remember by the time of the 2000 republican convention there was a tribute to him, as by that point he was already ill enough as to no longer be able to function on his own. And that’s Alzheimers, which from my understanding actually progresses more slowly than some other types of dementia. If Trump was already suffering early Alzheimers by the time he left office in 2021, we’d most likely no about it for sure by now.
Trump’s single redeeming characteristic is that his malevolence is tempered by massive incompetence.
Agreed!
Hi Russell, Trump's recent delusional tweet about AI, especially on top of the earlier tweet claiming Biden will be fighting at the upcoming convention, IMHO should lead any reasonable person to conclude Trump is now unwell mentally. If the MSM fails to cover this, it will be very telling.
Here’s a new AZ state senate pickup opportunity now that the incumbent R has lost her primary: https://www.mcleanforarizona.com
I'm so excited to help elect Harris and Dems up and down the ballot. If, God willing, we soundly defeat MAGA in November, we need to take a hard look at how we got here. How is it that a corrupt, incompetent madman like Trump can even have a chance of winning? A "blowout" for us would be 55% of the popular vote, but that still leaves tens of millions of people voting for Trump of their own free will. That's deeply troubling. I get that job #1 is just winning, but once that is done we need ensure no one like him can rise in our politics again. I don't have the answer, but I imagine it involves some combination of helping working people class get ahead, aggressively fighting disinformation, and greatly reducing the influence of money in politics.