I don't think we should view the current Congressional generic as the actual measure of where we are. It's the low end of the range we are seeing. Polls in AK, IA, OH, TX are all competitive for us. The important thing about what is happening right now is that Rs are competing in these races and losing by enormous amounts. Our machine is working and theirs isn't. It is an election of opportunity for us. The House is certainly leaning towards us, and the Senate is in play. How far we get will be up to us and whether the family stays focused on the mission at hand - beating MAGA - and not fighting with one another.
I was seeing voter enthusiasm numbers diverging. So it would seem to me, maybe naively, that if the generic ballot and voter enthusiasm measures both move in the same direction (in this case towards Democrats), that quite possible the generic will understate the trends in actual voting.
Great news in Florida! Hopefully we can provide significant help to get David Jolly elected governor. As an ex-republican, I think he has a unique perspective. Thoughts?
As for the orange man-baby, I posted yesterday that this rebrand thing is a risky proposition for the regime, and it just ain't gonna work. Krugman hit the nail right on the head regarding the man-baby's inability to course correct over the economy, and there's just so much more beyond that to skewer.
It's about opening new fronts, making them defend something they can't defend. Can we do it? Who knows. But the goal is to degrade and shove this shit in their face. We have to contest on multiple fronts and weaken the regime itself every we can.
❤️ the candor of this post. So appreciate the unapologetic sentiment to “shove shit in their faces.” We’re past being polite and lord knows all the GOP pols who purportedly disagree with Trump in private should feel the consequences of their cowardice. We can return to civility when this evil is exorcised.
Have a wonderful time in LA, Simon, as we celebrate all of our victories against maga. I'm sure you will encourage others at the DNC meeting to be more bold as we confront this illiberal administration head on. We have the grit to bring our success to the 2026 elections.
Reading Trump's ridiculous post reminds me of what Gov. Newsom said in an interview recently: "Why don't corporations, universities, newspapers, media outlets stand up to this crazy ass man?" He is clearly delusional and so frequently stands down when called out like a school yard bully, but too many capitulate to him and his insane criminal sycophants. It just gets more and more ludicrous, and we keep killing the Rs in elections. Happy to be on our side. Thanks Simon!
I wonder how these posts get written. They kind of sound like him but it’s clear he dictates them somehow. But, yes, always unhinged. Getting more unhinged.
I think he has various staffers who take turns impersonating him on his truth social to push various agendas they have. When it’s not him. It’s usually him tho I think.
I have wondered who posts them for Trump. It does appear to be him bc the posts have so many grammar and spelling errors. But, then, I wonder, does he have the patience to sit there and tap the keys on his phone or computer? Do Staffers do it and not proof before posting? Can they proof? I mean, everyone occasionally posts with an error but Trump's posts sound just like he always sounds: rambling incoherently.
Yeah it is spot on. He can't fuck with all of us, either as individuals or as institutions. The school yard bully just picks on one at a time. It's what they depend on.
I think the good news is that courage is contagious, and more are taking a stand.
I had the opposite impression. At the end of the first sentence he used 'me' instead of 'I'. And, all the over-capitalization. I grant you, though, he may have had some help! It's a wonder -- does he actually believe this B.S.?
I suspect there's some evolutionary explanation for the sycophancy that is so distressingly present within our society. But, I think the forces against such behavior are even stronger, as shown by the support generated in the many protests over the past year.
1. Send masked goons out to beat up Latino people.
2. Draw new maps based on how Latinos voted before the GOP sent masked goons out to beat them up.
How did it not occur to them that would backfire?? They are so bad at this!
On a related note, word is that Stephen Miller is trying to get Kristi Noem fired because: Miller wants more concentration camps built. And I’m characterizing it that way because Miller definitely wants to go after people of color regardless of citizenship to the fullest extent he can get away with it.
Habeas corpus has become a central part of immigration litigation because Miller wants to deprive people of due process, which is how you go from a lawful detention system to a concentration camp system. The obstruction of judicial oversight is the difference between the two.
Calling my congresspersons about this. I’m fine with Noem getting fired but building more camps is just another step in the direction of a Nazi Germany rerun. And that isn’t hyperbole.
Also going to ask my senators to get HR 6019 passed stat.
It's almost as if they deliberately didn't fund the legal system to process people speedily through the system, so that they could instead populate concentration camps.
The has the additional attractive feature of being able to enrich your allies in building the camps.
Mass-firings of immigration judges who tried to be real judges, replacing them with “deportation judges.”
Miller is invested in private prison companies.
The more of them get built, the more a narrative can be built around how they’re necessary because they “create jobs” and “sustain local economies.” Which really just means white people get paid to inflict unimaginable suffering on nonwhite people.
We already have one murder that we know of (how exactly do you hang yourself while hog-tied?).
Alligator Auschwitz was designed to be an incommunicado facility and they used a stress-position cage where inmates were shackled to get eaten alive by mosquitos.
It is not hard to see where this is all going.
It’s not mass deportation. It’s mass incarceration.
Inmates are moved around constantly to obstruct their access to lawyers. Family members often don’t know where they are.
If there’s no lawyer access, no judicial oversight, and no congressional oversight, then it’s no longer a detention center system that adheres to the US Constitution. It’s a concentration camp system. We seem to be halfway there already.
Aubrey Heffer is an authoritarianism scholar who has written about how private companies found ways to cash in on the Holocaust, so there’s even precedent for that aspect of it too.
Alligator Auschwitz was built with contracts going to DeSantis allies. Carlos Duart and his wife Tina Duart (something, she had another last name). Carlos I think is on the Board of Trustees for Florida International University. So these people building concentration camps with corrupt contracting are responsible for our University system.
Florida is the biggest corrupt mess I've ever seen. And before here, I was in Illinois where I voted for Blagojevich, who went to federal prison, who ran against the previous governor (whose name I am forgetting) who also went to federal prison.
From The Independent reporting on a new complaint regarding ICE detention at Fort Bliss in Texas:
“A series of sworn testimonials describes the facility’s deteriorating conditions and routine beatings that have left several people hospitalized, including detainees whose testicles were ‘firmly crushed’ by guards.”
Simon, you mention meeting with Arizona folks, so.... what's going on with Arizona Dems? They have been TOTALLY, 100% absent from any communications with Arizona Democrats the entire year.... the base, the volunteers, everybody. I understand (grudgingly) the confusion with the prior chair, but there's a new chair now for several months, and nobody has reached out at all. Nothing new on the website (and obsolete stuff there too), they don't respond to inquiries, and no communication with the email list.
thx to simon and all hopiums for helping us win the miami mayoral race with eileen higgins. and with a huge margin! looking forward to competent, caring, non corrupt govt for a change. just thrilled! and first woman mayor since miami was founded in 1896! we'll take the win!!!
Daily calls are in (yesterday and today) for WI elected members of Congress regarding our 5 part agenda with a separate call today for the ACA tax credits - vote is happening tomorrow. Our local protest “Ho,ho, ho Trump’s got to go” was just canceled due to extreme cold. I’ll be back at it when they reschedule.
So glad to hear about Haley Stevens’ work on the RFK articles of impeachment. Let’s get rid of all Trump’s cabinet cronies fouling up the government. RFK is a great start!
I shared Chris Murphy’s post on FB. He is so great. Really happy to hear about Congressional pressure on RFK, Jr. Honestly I thought he would have created some type of emergency by now—well, one we would know about. I’m hoping Democrats continue to work to force out Hegseth. And going with RFK next is a great plan.
What a great great night!. I was expecting victory in Miami, but not by 19. And that Georgia race was equally shocking and wonderful. Today I dance... and offer up this song dedicated to Donny two-dolls and the GOP... Onward fellow Hopiates
I am recycling an idea I read somewhere on Substack: send a ‘non threatening’ Christmas card to SCOTUS or your congress representatives. Greetings are optional, sharing your thoughts regarding their job performance is highly recommended!!
Messages to SCOTUS will not reach them (public comments are screened out, I hear, to maintain their “impartiality “🙄)
But, here is a way to send a positive message that thanks the lower court judges who are courageously and resolutely standing up for the rule of law!
Lawyers Defending American Democracy is a group of retired judges and other legal professionals who are collecting signatures to show Americans’ support for “federal court judges and related court support personnel who, each day, are asked to respond to an unprecedented array of attacks on our constitutional democracy and the rule of law.”
Another great post. A question. What are the best current estimates of 5e generic advantage
Hi Bowman, I'm a little lost...what's 5e? Thanks!
5e is a mistake.
I don't think we should view the current Congressional generic as the actual measure of where we are. It's the low end of the range we are seeing. Polls in AK, IA, OH, TX are all competitive for us. The important thing about what is happening right now is that Rs are competing in these races and losing by enormous amounts. Our machine is working and theirs isn't. It is an election of opportunity for us. The House is certainly leaning towards us, and the Senate is in play. How far we get will be up to us and whether the family stays focused on the mission at hand - beating MAGA - and not fighting with one another.
I was seeing voter enthusiasm numbers diverging. So it would seem to me, maybe naively, that if the generic ballot and voter enthusiasm measures both move in the same direction (in this case towards Democrats), that quite possible the generic will understate the trends in actual voting.
Great news in Florida! Hopefully we can provide significant help to get David Jolly elected governor. As an ex-republican, I think he has a unique perspective. Thoughts?
Amazing night yesterday...WOW!
As for the orange man-baby, I posted yesterday that this rebrand thing is a risky proposition for the regime, and it just ain't gonna work. Krugman hit the nail right on the head regarding the man-baby's inability to course correct over the economy, and there's just so much more beyond that to skewer.
Could you explain the ramifications of the impeachment of RFK jr.? Is there a real possibility he could be ousted?
It's about opening new fronts, making them defend something they can't defend. Can we do it? Who knows. But the goal is to degrade and shove this shit in their face. We have to contest on multiple fronts and weaken the regime itself every we can.
I just emailed Rep. Sam Liccardo to sign onto the RFK jr. impeachment effort. Our district is suffering so much from the War on Science!
❤️ the candor of this post. So appreciate the unapologetic sentiment to “shove shit in their faces.” We’re past being polite and lord knows all the GOP pols who purportedly disagree with Trump in private should feel the consequences of their cowardice. We can return to civility when this evil is exorcised.
Have a wonderful time in LA, Simon, as we celebrate all of our victories against maga. I'm sure you will encourage others at the DNC meeting to be more bold as we confront this illiberal administration head on. We have the grit to bring our success to the 2026 elections.
Here's some info about the DNC meeting. https://www.demlist.com/demdaily-your-guide-to-the-democratic-national-committee-9/
Reading Trump's ridiculous post reminds me of what Gov. Newsom said in an interview recently: "Why don't corporations, universities, newspapers, media outlets stand up to this crazy ass man?" He is clearly delusional and so frequently stands down when called out like a school yard bully, but too many capitulate to him and his insane criminal sycophants. It just gets more and more ludicrous, and we keep killing the Rs in elections. Happy to be on our side. Thanks Simon!
And when he doesn't stand down, he sounds more and more unhinged, delusional, crazy and incoherent.
I wonder how these posts get written. They kind of sound like him but it’s clear he dictates them somehow. But, yes, always unhinged. Getting more unhinged.
I think he has various staffers who take turns impersonating him on his truth social to push various agendas they have. When it’s not him. It’s usually him tho I think.
Autopen!
Yep. Weirdly, the sycophants are as bat-shit crazy as he is. Completely unqualified with a horrifyingly ugly worldview.
I have wondered who posts them for Trump. It does appear to be him bc the posts have so many grammar and spelling errors. But, then, I wonder, does he have the patience to sit there and tap the keys on his phone or computer? Do Staffers do it and not proof before posting? Can they proof? I mean, everyone occasionally posts with an error but Trump's posts sound just like he always sounds: rambling incoherently.
Yeah it is spot on. He can't fuck with all of us, either as individuals or as institutions. The school yard bully just picks on one at a time. It's what they depend on.
I think the good news is that courage is contagious, and more are taking a stand.
Take away his phone and what does he have? Can he remember his Truth Social login and password? I doubt it
No way in hell the Orange Blubbering Baby Man wrote that TS post. It’s grammatically correct with no obvious spelling errors.
It’s also bat shit crazy, and really quite pathetic.
I had the opposite impression. At the end of the first sentence he used 'me' instead of 'I'. And, all the over-capitalization. I grant you, though, he may have had some help! It's a wonder -- does he actually believe this B.S.?
I suspect there's some evolutionary explanation for the sycophancy that is so distressingly present within our society. But, I think the forces against such behavior are even stronger, as shown by the support generated in the many protests over the past year.
GOP dummymander strategy:
1. Send masked goons out to beat up Latino people.
2. Draw new maps based on how Latinos voted before the GOP sent masked goons out to beat them up.
How did it not occur to them that would backfire?? They are so bad at this!
On a related note, word is that Stephen Miller is trying to get Kristi Noem fired because: Miller wants more concentration camps built. And I’m characterizing it that way because Miller definitely wants to go after people of color regardless of citizenship to the fullest extent he can get away with it.
Habeas corpus has become a central part of immigration litigation because Miller wants to deprive people of due process, which is how you go from a lawful detention system to a concentration camp system. The obstruction of judicial oversight is the difference between the two.
Calling my congresspersons about this. I’m fine with Noem getting fired but building more camps is just another step in the direction of a Nazi Germany rerun. And that isn’t hyperbole.
Also going to ask my senators to get HR 6019 passed stat.
What you said at first reminds me of what a Ukrainian soldier said about Russia early into the war: "Thank God they are so stupid."
It's almost as if they deliberately didn't fund the legal system to process people speedily through the system, so that they could instead populate concentration camps.
The has the additional attractive feature of being able to enrich your allies in building the camps.
Yep, that’s exactly right.
Mass-firings of immigration judges who tried to be real judges, replacing them with “deportation judges.”
Miller is invested in private prison companies.
The more of them get built, the more a narrative can be built around how they’re necessary because they “create jobs” and “sustain local economies.” Which really just means white people get paid to inflict unimaginable suffering on nonwhite people.
We already have one murder that we know of (how exactly do you hang yourself while hog-tied?).
Alligator Auschwitz was designed to be an incommunicado facility and they used a stress-position cage where inmates were shackled to get eaten alive by mosquitos.
It is not hard to see where this is all going.
It’s not mass deportation. It’s mass incarceration.
Inmates are moved around constantly to obstruct their access to lawyers. Family members often don’t know where they are.
If there’s no lawyer access, no judicial oversight, and no congressional oversight, then it’s no longer a detention center system that adheres to the US Constitution. It’s a concentration camp system. We seem to be halfway there already.
Aubrey Heffer is an authoritarianism scholar who has written about how private companies found ways to cash in on the Holocaust, so there’s even precedent for that aspect of it too.
Alligator Auschwitz was built with contracts going to DeSantis allies. Carlos Duart and his wife Tina Duart (something, she had another last name). Carlos I think is on the Board of Trustees for Florida International University. So these people building concentration camps with corrupt contracting are responsible for our University system.
Florida is the biggest corrupt mess I've ever seen. And before here, I was in Illinois where I voted for Blagojevich, who went to federal prison, who ran against the previous governor (whose name I am forgetting) who also went to federal prison.
From The Independent reporting on a new complaint regarding ICE detention at Fort Bliss in Texas:
“A series of sworn testimonials describes the facility’s deteriorating conditions and routine beatings that have left several people hospitalized, including detainees whose testicles were ‘firmly crushed’ by guards.”
It never ceases to amaze me how dumb they are
Simon, you mention meeting with Arizona folks, so.... what's going on with Arizona Dems? They have been TOTALLY, 100% absent from any communications with Arizona Democrats the entire year.... the base, the volunteers, everybody. I understand (grudgingly) the confusion with the prior chair, but there's a new chair now for several months, and nobody has reached out at all. Nothing new on the website (and obsolete stuff there too), they don't respond to inquiries, and no communication with the email list.
So happy and encouraged by this! Maybe even in Ohio!
thx to simon and all hopiums for helping us win the miami mayoral race with eileen higgins. and with a huge margin! looking forward to competent, caring, non corrupt govt for a change. just thrilled! and first woman mayor since miami was founded in 1896! we'll take the win!!!
Daily calls are in (yesterday and today) for WI elected members of Congress regarding our 5 part agenda with a separate call today for the ACA tax credits - vote is happening tomorrow. Our local protest “Ho,ho, ho Trump’s got to go” was just canceled due to extreme cold. I’ll be back at it when they reschedule.
Love that chant!
So glad to hear about Haley Stevens’ work on the RFK articles of impeachment. Let’s get rid of all Trump’s cabinet cronies fouling up the government. RFK is a great start!
I agree. As bad as they all are, I put Rf*K Jr and Kegseth at the top of the list.
Agreed 💯
I shared Chris Murphy’s post on FB. He is so great. Really happy to hear about Congressional pressure on RFK, Jr. Honestly I thought he would have created some type of emergency by now—well, one we would know about. I’m hoping Democrats continue to work to force out Hegseth. And going with RFK next is a great plan.
What a great great night!. I was expecting victory in Miami, but not by 19. And that Georgia race was equally shocking and wonderful. Today I dance... and offer up this song dedicated to Donny two-dolls and the GOP... Onward fellow Hopiates
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S79d6DZwPQQ&list=RDBq82UFxLtrM&index=4
Muy bien, Michael!
I am recycling an idea I read somewhere on Substack: send a ‘non threatening’ Christmas card to SCOTUS or your congress representatives. Greetings are optional, sharing your thoughts regarding their job performance is highly recommended!!
Happy Holidays!
Messages to SCOTUS will not reach them (public comments are screened out, I hear, to maintain their “impartiality “🙄)
But, here is a way to send a positive message that thanks the lower court judges who are courageously and resolutely standing up for the rule of law!
Lawyers Defending American Democracy is a group of retired judges and other legal professionals who are collecting signatures to show Americans’ support for “federal court judges and related court support personnel who, each day, are asked to respond to an unprecedented array of attacks on our constitutional democracy and the rule of law.”
Go to https://secure.ngpvan.com/6nwd46ixoUKYOKtiikqjyw2 to learn more about this effort and add your name.
Thank you!!
Such good news last night! My calls are in. I'm seeing some draft maps for Virginia's restructuring that are giving me real optimism.