Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Dems Having A Good 2023, Hopium Event Tuesday, MAGA's Awfulness Takes Center Stage
The Monday Hopium Roundup/Welcome New Subscribers!/VA Early Vote Has Begun!
Happy Monday all. The big story of the week, as it has been for most weeks over the past 8 years, is the ongoing train wreck of the Trump-era Republican Party. Dangerous. Extremist. Cowardly. Illiberal. Pathetic. Unprecedented. Reckless. Utterly without virtue. Choose whatever words you want to describe what we’re in the midst of in the House right now. A shutdown is likely. We are far far away from a deal. The weak and battered Speaker probably survives only because they don’t have any one to replace him with (!!!!!). The American people, America’s standing, America’s economy, the West’s defense of Ukraine will be hurt by the shutdown - but why would MAGA care about that? As long as it they somehow believe it will hurt Biden, they are going to give it a go.
This morning’s Politico Playbook has a good summary of where we are for those who want to dive a bit deeper into it all.
The politics of these shutdowns never work to Republicans’ advantage. My guess it if this lasts more than a few days it will become a serious problem for an already deeply degraded Republican brand. Dobbs/Abortion extremism. Clear effort to end American democracy. Trump. A corrupt Roberts Court. Fealty to Putin. A Senate leader at the end of his run. And now shutting down the government and acting like fools…..
The Post poll was bad (a bad poll that is). We keep winning elections across the US this year, running way ahead of our 2020 results. Joe Biden is a good President, the country is better off and we have a strong case to make for re-election. They are saddled with Trump, Dobbs and insurrection. In every way possible, as we head into 2024, I would much rather be us than them.
Early voting began on Friday in Virginia! You can learn more and find ways to help here. New data shows VA Senate and House Democrats have out-raised their opponents this year, and enter the home stretch with a bit of political momentum. This is a big one - need everyone in the Hopium community involved here in whatever way you can. Note that we are doing a check in and pep rally for Virginia next Tuesday night with our friends Network NOVA and Delegate Dan Helmer, who is running the campaign to retake the Virginia state house. Join us! We will also be talking about the best ways to give and volunteer in these critical final days.
A reminder that tomorrow night is our monthly Hopium wide get together. 7pm ET. So much to talk about this week! RSVP here. Looking forward to seeing everyone.
Now to our Monday roundup……..
Election and Polling Analysis - Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them
Some Notes on Current Polling and Political Data (Asymmetrical Engagement)
The DailyKos 2023 Special Election Tracker - Dems up 7.6% over 2020 in 27 elections across US! (Updated)
Winning Virginia/Our Democratic Grassroots Is Stronger Than It’s Ever Been/Becoming An Info Warrior for Democracy
Winning Virginia (With links to volunteer and donate)
Sharing Your Work With Others in The Hopium Community (Fun, Exciting and Inspiring)
Upcoming Events (here’s the complete list)
Tue, September 26th, 7pm ET - Full Hopium community Political Briefing and Discussion with Simon - RSVP here. Lots to talk about - looking forward to getting together with everyone!
Wed, September 27th, 11am ET - Simon presents to Seniors Taking Action
Wed, September 27th, 7pm ET - Simon and Robert Hubbell join Big Tent USA, “Building A Pro-Democracy Coalition” - Learn More, RSVP
Tue, October 3rd, 7pm ET - Hopium/Network NOVA Virginia Election Briefing and Call To Action with Virginia House Campaign Chair Delegate Dan Helmer - RSVP here. All eyes on Virginia now!
Wed, October 11th, 7pm ET - Simon and Tom Bonior Talk Polls, Election Data and The Strong Dem Performance Since Dobbs - RSVP here.
The Economy is Strong, Inflation is Down, There Is No Recession On The Horizon And America Is A Global Leader on Climate Once Again
Getting to 55 and The Importance of The Youth Vote
Here’s Congressman Maxwell Frost on what was a big week for young Americans:
Republicans Are Saddled With Trump, MAGA, Dobbs and Treason
When Republicans are on the run on abortion in Kentucky, you know how much trouble they are in nationally. This is a powerful (and tragic) new ad from Governor Andy Beshear’s campaign.
Hopium Chronicles Basics
What I Mean By Hopium (Audio)
With Democrats Things Get Better - August, 2023
Finally, here’s how Ron Brownstein of CNN and The Atlantic wrote about this political moment and our emerging opportunity:
Simon Rosenberg, the long-time Democratic strategist who was proven right as the most prominent public skeptic of the “red wave” theory in 2022, argues that Trump, in particular, is unlikely to match his 47% of the vote from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again. “We are starting at a place where it is far more likely in my mind that he gets to 45% than he gets to 49%,” Rosenberg said. “And if he gets to 45%, we have the opportunity to get up to 55%. The key for Democrats is we have to imagine growing and expanding our coalition for it to happen.”
Beyond the personal doubts about Trump among voters outside the GOP coalition, Democrats such as Rosenberg and Anzalone see several other factors that give Biden a chance to widen his winning margin from the last election. Perhaps the most important of those are the slowdown in inflation, continued strength of the job market, and signs of accelerating recovery in the stock market – all of which are already stirring some gains in consumer confidence. Democrats are encouraged as well by recent declines in the number of undocumented immigrants attempting to cross the Southern border and the crime rate in big cities – two issues on which polls show substantial disappointment in Biden’s performance.
Another change since 2020 is the broad public backlash, especially in Democratic-leaning and swing states, against the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion, which Trump has directly claimed credit for engineering through his nominations to the court. Finally, compared to 2020, the electorate in 2024 will likely include significantly more young people in Generation Z, a group that is preponderantly supporting Democrats, and fewer Whites without a college degree, now the GOP’s best group.
All of these factors, Rosenberg said, create “an opportunity” for Democrats to amass a bigger majority next year than most consider possible. But to get there, he argues, the party will need to think bigger, particularly in its efforts to mobilize younger voters aging into the electorate. “It’s a man on the moon kind of mindset,” Rosenberg said. “We have to want to go there to get there. We have to build a strategy to take away political real estate from the Republicans because they are giving us the opportunity to take it away from them.”
Many Republican strategists privately agree that the combined effect of the January 6 insurrection and the court’s abortion decision will make it difficult for Trump to expand his support from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again.
Keep working hard all - Simon
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