Simon has discussed the need for Democrats to pursue partisan registration. The rules for Voter Registration Agents probably differ by state statutes. In NM that is handled by the Secretary of State. There are requirements to get started, procedures to be followed, reports that are necessary, and penalties for non-compliance. VRAs can choose areas where they are most likely to find Democrats, and still register everyone regardless of party affiliation, if any.
Good points! Every state is different. This is one of the reasons I applaud DNC Chair Ken Martin’s effort to strengthen state-level parties that can be responsive to voters in their respective states. Martin is bringing back Howard Dean’s "50-State Strategy"!
A friend sent a group text denouncing DNC bc of "what they did to David Hogg". I explained that the DNC has rules, that David Hogg knew the rules, Ken Martin wants to fund the State Party Chairs who are not paid, etc. I also said that David Hogg has some good points but that, in my opinion, he is doing a disservice to Dems by going after Ken Martin and the DNC, etc. Do the DNC and Dem Leadership have problems? I said, I think so. But I don't think David Hogg is helping here and those of us that constantly bash the Party are not helping. We need to focus our attacks on the Republicans in power. I also hear that there is no difference between the parties. I address that as well. I hear it from strangers and friends. When I explain why I don't think they are the same, they always end up agreeing. Everyone in the group text sent me a text thanking me bc they did not know any of this. I want to make it clear that I did not bash David Hogg. I merely stated the facts as I knew them. I also find that when I include myself in the narrative, people are less defensive and entrenched in their negativity.
Is David Hogg correct in stating that ineffective Democratic lawmakers, especially those who are very old, need to step aside? Absolutely! At last count, I believer there were at least 30 Dem senators/representatives who were older than 75 years – and over half of them had declared they were running for re-election.
HOWEVER, the DNC needs to stay neutral. David Hogg had the choice between running his PAC and service as DNC Vice Chair. He tried to have it both ways, which is not tenable. Hogg proved that he was not a team player, which is most unfortunate. I was expecting greater maturity.
I agree. I like what David is doing and I would suggest that all reps should have physicals before declaring a run for a seat. Three House Democrats died this year which really puts us at more of a disadvantage that we didn't see coming and the votes on funding will be happening before those seats are filled.
David was not really conducting ageism but that some people take for granted that a seat is "theirs". When that happens, sometimes they become less effective.
I agree, where David went wrong was running a PAC and being a Vice Chair. When I donated I wasn't sure where the money was going. At least with this kerfuffle David has received more attention to his PAC and for the DNC. That's not necessarily a bad thing.
America’s youngest voters are far likelier to vote Republican than their older siblings. Generation Z may be better understood as two distinct sub-generations, divided, in large part, by how they experienced the shock of Covid-19.
A stunning statistic is revealed in the latest iteration of the Yale Youth Poll, which found an extraordinary 18-point partisan gap between younger and older members of Generation Z. When asked whether they’d pick a Democratic or Republican candidate in the midterm elections, voters age 22–29 favored Democrats by 6.4 points, while those age 18–21 favored Republicans by 11.7 points.
(EDIT: An important caveat is that numerous commentators at the Atlantic, Vox and New York Magazine consider the Yale Youth Poll to be an outlier. Skepticism is also merited by the polls that Simon has been sharing with us; these polls consistently show a dramatic drop in support for Trump especially amongst young voters.)
Worth noting: This right-ward drift amongst the very-youngest voters is not just an American phenomenon. It is seen in European countries as well, including in Norway.
Also, as has been discussed elsewhere and previously on Hopium: there is a significant and widening gender gap. This right-ward drift is far more pronounced amongst young men.
I was about to post about the gender gap, which is a major factor driving up the Republican youth vote numbers. It will be interesting to see if this gap remains once trump is no longer on the ballot.
My grandson is in this age group (although he voted all Dem) and I was glad to see the Dodgers standing up to ICE and going out of their way to raise money for immigrants in their area. Sports teams are, whether they want to be or not, role models for a lot of young men and seeing them stand up to Trump could be a good thing.
While new Yale youth poll is a very good poll, it was conducted April 1-3, a political lifetime ago. In that time in the Economist/YouGov track has Trump dropping from -3 job approval to -13, and -8 among 18 to 29 year olds to -39.
Which begs the question is whether Trump's collapse among people is being driven by a collapse among younger Gen Z. The poll needed to address that in my view to be considered credible. But we know younger Gen Z is more R, something we've discussed here many times.
TO help me with perspective from a baby boomer point of view... ; the way the young Gen Zs think about Obama, is the same way I think about Eisenhower... i.e before me time even though I was born in the 50's. They just don't have a very long arc of political history they have lived through.
But I think many will be growing up fast in 2025 and 2026.
Arctic, I'm wondering if the rightward lean among 18-21 yo is reflective of the Republican efforts on partisan voter registration over the past four years as discussed in the interview with Tom Bonier.
This can be only part of the explanation, and personally I don’t think it is a major factor. After all, we’re seeing the same phenomenon in many Western countries, not just the US.
Thanks for the reply. You may be right, I may be crazy! But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for :)
Turning Point USA now touts 800+ campus chapters and if you look at the map it looks like they have extensive coverage in the battleground states. My understanding is voter registration is a big push for them. I don't know that much about the group's various orgs but Turning Point Action didn't form until 2019.
the senate dems may have lost on nominations. but now is the perfect time for the dem senate and house to align with millions and strategic groups to kill the budget bill. and in doing so, will put dems in front and being proactive with the people: for protecting them, and saving good things in the budget, and killing the bad things. many national groups will join in. this needs to be done! and in doing so, they will learn how effective it is. nancy did this to save obama care, and it worked! so it's not new. but this is the future of the party!! as you say, 24/7/365. the budget bill is the perfect foil for dems!!! it's just lousy in every way and the people dont really know about it. simon, enjoy SF. best food, art, community!!! try to get to pascual's.
My big question is simple: How can Democratic lawmakers, strategic groups and millions of Americans, actually leverage their influence to push enough Republican lawmakers to vote against the budget or at least remove some of its worst provisions? I ask this while pointing to a simple fact: it’s more and more apparent that Trump *owns* the party.
(Yes, I know we keep making calls and make our voices heard, but...)
Rs will only change their vote if they fear losing their seat in the next election. There aren’t that many who are truly vulnerable (yet) but we only need to change a few votes.
well, i dont know how nancy did it. but i remember seeing it on tv with saving obama care. there are probably 100M (wild guess) who are members of organizations that have clout, lobbyists, etc. and just like any bill, you start picking stuff apart. docs, hospitals, education, labor, etc. inundating repubs in house & senate. until the thing crumbles from its own weight. they have a VERY fragile hold on this bill, with lots of dissent. but maybe they would be happy with a CRA for the budget and just the tax giveaway to the billionaires. leaving everything else in tact, because that's all they could pass. in any case, this is how dems must proceed in order to win. and it would be mobilizing the country, which would help them win elections. they need to focus less on legislation & more on comms. actually, i think the dems need to pick off vulnerable repubs who hate the bill!!! with donny 2 dolls polling, maybe some of them can be brave.
What we are doing is having an effect. The calls tell the elected leaders of either party what we think, and the volume of calls clearly matters.
The protests are not just fun, they are helping uninvolved people find their courage. I was astonished at how many people I knew turned out on June 14 after never attending a protest. One person I know, a White man and US citizen, had been too afraid to speak up, but he found his courage last weekend!
The lawsuits are working. It keeps things in the headlines and delivers wins to us, even when the administration blows them off.
The pushback against ICE is working. I saw a protest sign on the news: “First they came for the immigrants and we said NO.” It is helping to define the American cultural stance, which is that we don’t like it.
And it undercuts the R’s claim that everyone agrees with them, which was the basis for all their mandate stuff. It would have been so much better if D’s had a majority in Congress or the White House, but we don’t, so it is a lot harder.
Maybe we could start by pressuring the GOP to debate the attack on Iran in Congress as spelled out in the Constitution. Give OLD Mr TWO_WEEKS a little advise and consent...
Thanks for the fantastic presentation yesterday. I have shared it in my groups and we are going to be discussing. Would love to know when the funding and staff are coming to New Jersey and Virginia as the need in these two states is clearly urgent. We are far behind on partisan voter registration, and we cannot beat Republicans without it.
Simon, thank you for this great discussion with Tom. I remember you calling for an all-out campaign to get young people registered -- wish that had happened. I've forwarded today's post to the grassroots activists I know in rural Virginia. Although Virginia doesn't register voters by party, we do know where Dems are likely hanging out and we need to get them registered.
I’ll add my thanks for the discussion with Tom Bonier. It was really interesting and I also plan to share it as much as possible. That’s interesting that VA doesn’t register voters by party, I wonder if CA is the same way. I need to learn more about the term “partisan voter registration “ and what it looks like in practice. It could simply mean, at least in some places or states, that the voter registration table is staffed by members of the local or state Dem Party group, who advocate for Democratic Party registration but ultimately leave the choice up to the person registering.
I'll chime in here. In California, one can register as a Republican, a Democrat, as Third Party/Other, of as Unaffiliated. As far as I can see, the Secretary of State website doesn't compile party registration in a way that's easy to find, but less official websites show data suggesting somewhere between 20-25% are registered Unaffiliated, substantiating the need to pare down that Unaffiliated number and increase the Dem number. (Here's a link - I did not/am not sure how to vet the source. https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ca)
I did a lot of voter registration in 2018-19, but I worked with the League of Women Voters, so we were not encouraging registration for a particular party. This time I'm interested in getting involved in Democratic voter registration.
I think you're missing the importance of reaching NPAs and low information voters. Also I think the handling of Gazza had a major impact with many voters being turned off by the Democratic Party. We need to reach people in all generations, all regions, ethnicities, beliefs, and media preferences. We need to message them with truthful and empowering info that motivates them to vote.
I was saying this yesterday- any senator with a continuing record of voting for arms to Israel just has no chance of winning over leftists or even progressives, so long as the atrocity in Gaza continues unabated and there’s no prospect for any restorative justice after it’s over.
I am going to engage here - there is very little evidence from 2024 that Gaza or Israel's actions played a major role in what happened in the election. If folks have that data they need to share it but even for young people in the polls leading up to election day Gaza rated very very far down the list of issues of concern. Again I am open to this view but it has to be backed up with data and I have to yet see any data that suggests that Gaza was a significant issue in shaping opinion last year.
It’s the first thing I look for when I am asked to donate. If it’s a senator, I check that voting record before reaching for my wallet. I am more willing than a lot of my peers to be understanding about our need for an ally in the region, but endless arms with zero conditions isn’t something I can accept when what those arms are being used for long since passed the bounds of international law or anything resembling basic morality.
Ruth, what in the world are you talking about here? Did you read my 7 takeaways, or watch the video, or read anything I've written since the election?
If you think Gaza mattered produce data showing it did. Open to it. But to be clear - I am not missing anything here. Everything you raise here has been central to post elections discussions and analysis.
Ruth.. I just googled "gaza polls/2024 election".. I'm sure comment will arise here that can tell us if these polls are credible, but they were numerous and assertive as to how US non involvement hurt Dems voter support in 2024.
I have no way of knowing their credibility, but all I have to do is watch the news and see the starving and dismantling of Gaza and the the suffering and continuing attacks on innocents to make me understand where such OPINION polls are coming from...
Young people who vote have to be more attuned than me to such contradictions.
This is not an independent poll. The last two major young polls done before the election had Israel Gaza at the bottom of list of concerns. Given the economic disruptions of COVID it’s simply impossible to believe that something happening far away with no material bearing on their lives would rate high for young people. I wrote about this a lot last year and will dig up the data. Feel free to look at the post election reports from CIRCLE and Harvard IOP. I am open to this being a thing but I don’t think it was.
On the topic of Gen Z: Hopium colleagues, are you familiar with Jean Twenge? I think of her as the queen of generations deep data research and insights. She wrote an article for The Atlantic that appeared yesterday; good timing for us. I hope you have access; the gift article button wasn't showing up. Anyway, the title and teaser line say a lot:
"The Myth of the Gen Z Red Wave: The best available evidence suggests that the youth-vote shift in 2024 was more a one-off event than an ideological realignment."
Which does NOT mean we're off the hook to winning back Gen Z, but might change the approach since she points out they're the most depressed & discouraged generation, so could fall into a pattern of throwing each group out each cycle.
I'm also inclined to believe it was a one-off due to the trump factor, mostly due to how well we did in 2020 and 2022. That, combined with this anti-incumbency see saw we've been on for a while now.
In this and earlier posts Michael questions the whole "rightward shift" narrative. Here is a passage from the post regarding Trump's tanking poll numbers.
"Those numbers don’t show that Trump has squandered some deep reservoir of support, or that he has “overreached.” Those polling numbers show that Trump’s earlier support depended on voters not understanding or believing he would do what he said he would do if elected. On tariffs, deportations, and other issues that are cratering his approval ratings, Trump is now doing almost precisely what he said he would do.5 And voters hate it—including the “less engaged” voters who were supposedly too hard to reach before November with warnings about it."
I would encourage folks to read the above post and spend some time on Michael's substack. He makes a crucial contribution to what happened to elect Trump and what we need to do going forward.
Calling on Hopium supporters in the North East! Time to take on the portions of the "Big, Bad, Bill" that increase hunger!
JUNE 25TH IS THE NORTHEAST DAY OF ACTION.
Join advocates across the northeast region on June 25th in a powerful day of action to send a strong message: The Northeast says NO to proposals that gut the lifelines that keep our communities fed and healthy.
Congress is moving quickly to pass cuts to SNAP, Medicaid, and other programs that will strip food off the table for millions of Americans.
The House already voted to cut these programs by more than $1 trillion, and the Senate is poised to vote on their proposals, which are equally devastating.
We can stop them. But we need your help.
June 25th will be a day of action urging Senators in every northeast state to vote NO on the budget bill that aims to slash our most important basic needs programs. It will also be a day for northeasterners to reach out to friends in other regions of the country to make sure they are contacting their Senators, urging them to vote NO.
What can you do now?
Save the date and share this post on your social media and other communication channels!
Phone Bank with advocates across the Northeast! Learn more & register here.
Submit a Letter to the Editor using these templates.
What can you do on June 25th?
Direct your network to take action by emailing or calling their Senators.
Wait, when did June 25 just become a day of action and I'm only hearing about it now? Send links & templates please. Is Indivisible organizing this? I just got their newsletter and it didn't say anything. Or I missed something. I"ll check. Thanks for posting!!
Look forward to anyone and everyone joining. This attacks the parts of the Reconciliation bill which create more hunger in America. Others could organize similar days to speak out against the cuts to medicaid, the sale of public lands, the cuts to the ACA, the cuts to medicare, the tax cut for the wealthy. We don't have many days left before the Senate passes something so let's try to make it at least less bad!
I volunteered with Field Team 6 during the election. Partisan voter registration is what they do, and they were screaming from the rooftops about this problem last year. They did everything they could but cannot make up for a lack of a large coordinated effort from the party. I’m frankly shocked we dropped the ball so hard on this. I know Simon called for a national youth voter registration drive way back in 2023. I wonder why that proposal wasn’t taken seriously. It’s not like Dems didn’t have the money.
Clearly the people in charge had other priorities. Hopefully this new data will convince them they were wrong! Or better yet -- to get in new people who understand what's needed.
I watched this interview and agree with the need for Dem voter registration drives, but also important is the need for monitoring voter purges at local and state Boards of Election meetings. As an engaged Democratic GA voter in blue Dekalb County, I have witnessed the vote purge assault at local BOE meetings. It is important to attend those BOE meetings and educate the public how to check their voter registration status.
The Civic Center in LA is involved with non partisan high school student voter registration drives throughout the country. I always thought setting up statewide high school voter registration competitions and offering a prize (ice cream party?) to the proportionally largest winner could be a way to incentivize students to register.
I'd like to see a nuts-and-bolts discussion of how Democratic partisan voter registration would work-- especially in places like here in Virginia, where people don't register by party affiliation.
Why have Republicans been so successful at it? What exactly are they doing?
I’ve wondered the same thing. I’ve worked with League of Women Voters, a group that does non-partisan registration. The best places to register include high schools and naturalization ceremonies—of course all first time voters. Democrats couldn’t really table at schools—not sure about naturalization events. But there must be ways to host picnics and such to encourage first time voters to show up.
I've also wondered this, since pretty much the going message from the GOP seems to be constantly downplaying voter registration and voting in general. I never see voter outreach efforts on their part, so would like to know exactly the types of outreach they are doing and via what channels. Or, if it is more a matter of our "non-partisan" approach inadvertently recruiting republican voters for them while they sit back and coast on our efforts. One common example of us unintentionally helping them is the tendency for us to post platitudes like, "I don't care who you vote for as long as you vote." I'm like, are you kidding?! I want no part of increasing republican rosters, or "independent" voter rosters for that matter. It's time for full-fledged partisan Democratic voting and to stop running away from the idea that we have a political party.
When I was canvassing last year, a lot of NPP voters said they hated Democrats, and I did tell them that we can disagree but it was good they were voting. Did I really think that? Of course not! But I had two reasons for saying it:
I wanted them to see that Democrats are serious about voting rights for all, not just people we agree with.
I wanted them to have a pleasant encounter with a Democrat to counter all the lies about us hating America, socialism, all that stuff. (I had a few right-leaning voters comment on how nice I was despite being a Democrat. 🙄)
And anyway, when confronted with a Trump voter, best not to make them mad. I am not someone who can do physical confrontations.
I agree completely, and especially learning what exactly the GOP did right to increase GOP registration. What exactly did that look like at the level of individual engagement?
One need not hope in order to undertake, nor succeed in order to persevere.
- William The Silent, aka William, Prince of Orange, April 24, 1533 - July 10, 1584.
Was a Dutch Revolt leader against Spain. He was the first European politician to be assassinated by a gun.
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
Pigpen is back to SAVE WESTERN CIVILIZATION (i.e. read online for free if you must— “The Camp of the Saints” and “The Turner Diaries”) as Leon has been forced to take a less obvious role in politics and return to his dreams of Mars and world conquest: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacexs-starship-explodes-in-texas-during-preparations-for-10th-test-flight . One could summarize some of Pigpen’s favorite works of “literature” with three words: “GREAT REPLACEMENT THEORY.” Also, America’s first (and so far only) African-American President is concerned about the democratic stability of the country that he loves dearly. Therefore, the following two interviews are a MUST watch for their divergent views of the nation:
Here is Pigpen at the Christian Science Monitor Breakfast (timestamp - 42:42* CHINA AND RUSSIA as allies equals Yalta 2.0 and 47:38 and 52:53* and 01:00:42): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXJTCMVOiEI .
The contrast is powerful between the sense of “Hope and Change” and the resentments of the ardent “Leninist.” Pigpen, of course, lies consistently (e.g. election fraud, etc.) throughout the event. He also visited the White House yesterday (reading recent polls?). He wants Dolos to avoid a Middle East war in order to focus on implementing deportation raids of at least 10 million people.
The MSM doesn’t seem to understand that he likely hates them along with the rules-based order (including the Constitution). Remember his predictions about January 6. PIGPEN WANTS A SUMMER OF CHAOS and a war in the Gulf would get in the way (timestamp - 17:27, 19:00*, 19:40, 20:33, 22:30*, 24:32, 24:55*, 25:50, 26:35*, and 27:30**): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGKFJPbaFLc !!
Note that Pigpen specifically mentioned MBZ, the ruler of the UAE and a proponent of the “transparent citizen” (i.e. no privacy for the ruled) concept. MBZ has also spoken with Putin in the last day or so. The Gulf Cooperation Council does not want a regional war, i.e. between Israel and Iran. For a quick refresher on MBZ, here is a great podcast (like the better-known MBS, he has great ambitions): https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/new-power-in-the-gulf-the-rise-of-mbz/id1593634121?i=1000645997390 .
CARTHAGO DELENDA EST (via nonviolence).
P.S. : DEMOCRATIC officials keep mentioning (and showing) Jan. 6 and the PARDONS relative to the current “law and order” push by Dolos and his associates. This is a simple but strong contrast. Use social media to promote testimonies by former “January 6 Commission” members and witnesses. YES, re-litigate Jan. 6 - again and again and again. Dolos needs to realize that he lives in a GLASS HOUSE. Go on Faux News Channel because it is just like an “unrepresented” Republican district - i.e. plenty of visuals devoid of facts. The VISUAL EVIDENCE IS NOW ON YOUR SIDE. GO ON ESPN (a male-leaning channel) and express concern about the viability of the pending World Cup with actors like Dolos and Miller in the mix. With measles rampant and anti-vax officials influencing policy, will tourists want to visit the USA (weak ticket sales?): https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/soccer/heres-what-fifa-president-gianni-infantino-said-about-ice-cbp-agents-at-club-world-cup/ar-AA1GwUkA ?
P.P.S.: Do the following now! FIRST, TEACH CIVICS. Second, register voters. THIRD, TEACH CIVICS. Rinse. Repeat.
P.P.P.S.: Every local office of the Democratic Party and of the elected officials (including state representatives on up) must become a site for civic teach-ins and a clearing house for needed services (with Federal departments being sabotaged). The fact is that Democrats believe in the value of government and of government service, and the other side (i.e. the MAGAts and the illiberals) simply doesn’t. This engagement process will make registering partisan voters and teaching civics much easier.
Here's the scary thing: registering people in white real areas just creates more Republicans
Simon has discussed the need for Democrats to pursue partisan registration. The rules for Voter Registration Agents probably differ by state statutes. In NM that is handled by the Secretary of State. There are requirements to get started, procedures to be followed, reports that are necessary, and penalties for non-compliance. VRAs can choose areas where they are most likely to find Democrats, and still register everyone regardless of party affiliation, if any.
https://www.sos.nm.gov/voting-and-elections/voter-information-portal-nmvote-org/third-party-voter-registration-agents/
Good points! Every state is different. This is one of the reasons I applaud DNC Chair Ken Martin’s effort to strengthen state-level parties that can be responsive to voters in their respective states. Martin is bringing back Howard Dean’s "50-State Strategy"!
A friend sent a group text denouncing DNC bc of "what they did to David Hogg". I explained that the DNC has rules, that David Hogg knew the rules, Ken Martin wants to fund the State Party Chairs who are not paid, etc. I also said that David Hogg has some good points but that, in my opinion, he is doing a disservice to Dems by going after Ken Martin and the DNC, etc. Do the DNC and Dem Leadership have problems? I said, I think so. But I don't think David Hogg is helping here and those of us that constantly bash the Party are not helping. We need to focus our attacks on the Republicans in power. I also hear that there is no difference between the parties. I address that as well. I hear it from strangers and friends. When I explain why I don't think they are the same, they always end up agreeing. Everyone in the group text sent me a text thanking me bc they did not know any of this. I want to make it clear that I did not bash David Hogg. I merely stated the facts as I knew them. I also find that when I include myself in the narrative, people are less defensive and entrenched in their negativity.
Well done, and those are excellent points!
Is David Hogg correct in stating that ineffective Democratic lawmakers, especially those who are very old, need to step aside? Absolutely! At last count, I believer there were at least 30 Dem senators/representatives who were older than 75 years – and over half of them had declared they were running for re-election.
HOWEVER, the DNC needs to stay neutral. David Hogg had the choice between running his PAC and service as DNC Vice Chair. He tried to have it both ways, which is not tenable. Hogg proved that he was not a team player, which is most unfortunate. I was expecting greater maturity.
I agree. I like what David is doing and I would suggest that all reps should have physicals before declaring a run for a seat. Three House Democrats died this year which really puts us at more of a disadvantage that we didn't see coming and the votes on funding will be happening before those seats are filled.
David was not really conducting ageism but that some people take for granted that a seat is "theirs". When that happens, sometimes they become less effective.
I agree, where David went wrong was running a PAC and being a Vice Chair. When I donated I wasn't sure where the money was going. At least with this kerfuffle David has received more attention to his PAC and for the DNC. That's not necessarily a bad thing.
This is helpful information, thank you
Check out Jess Piper’s work. She’s here on Substack. She’s a Democratic Party activist in rural Missouri and produces amazing results.
Spock with a beard?
Yaaaay! I have missed Tom!
😍😍😍😍😍😍
AMERICA’s YOUTH VOTE: We have work to do!
America’s youngest voters are far likelier to vote Republican than their older siblings. Generation Z may be better understood as two distinct sub-generations, divided, in large part, by how they experienced the shock of Covid-19.
A stunning statistic is revealed in the latest iteration of the Yale Youth Poll, which found an extraordinary 18-point partisan gap between younger and older members of Generation Z. When asked whether they’d pick a Democratic or Republican candidate in the midterm elections, voters age 22–29 favored Democrats by 6.4 points, while those age 18–21 favored Republicans by 11.7 points.
https://youthpoll.yale.edu/spring-2025-results
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/21/gen-z-partisan-split-young-voters
https://politicalwire.com/2025/06/21/gen-zs-stunning-partisan-split/
.
(EDIT: An important caveat is that numerous commentators at the Atlantic, Vox and New York Magazine consider the Yale Youth Poll to be an outlier. Skepticism is also merited by the polls that Simon has been sharing with us; these polls consistently show a dramatic drop in support for Trump especially amongst young voters.)
Worth noting: This right-ward drift amongst the very-youngest voters is not just an American phenomenon. It is seen in European countries as well, including in Norway.
Also, as has been discussed elsewhere and previously on Hopium: there is a significant and widening gender gap. This right-ward drift is far more pronounced amongst young men.
I was about to post about the gender gap, which is a major factor driving up the Republican youth vote numbers. It will be interesting to see if this gap remains once trump is no longer on the ballot.
My grandson is in this age group (although he voted all Dem) and I was glad to see the Dodgers standing up to ICE and going out of their way to raise money for immigrants in their area. Sports teams are, whether they want to be or not, role models for a lot of young men and seeing them stand up to Trump could be a good thing.
Something I just put on Bluesky -
While new Yale youth poll is a very good poll, it was conducted April 1-3, a political lifetime ago. In that time in the Economist/YouGov track has Trump dropping from -3 job approval to -13, and -8 among 18 to 29 year olds to -39.
Which begs the question is whether Trump's collapse among people is being driven by a collapse among younger Gen Z. The poll needed to address that in my view to be considered credible. But we know younger Gen Z is more R, something we've discussed here many times.
Excellent points and really important! This is one reason I added the aforementioned caveats to my initial post.
"But we know younger Gen Z is more R, something we've discussed here many times."
The poor younguns need more of my older Gen Z guidance.
Damn, am I already getting old? :(
TO help me with perspective from a baby boomer point of view... ; the way the young Gen Zs think about Obama, is the same way I think about Eisenhower... i.e before me time even though I was born in the 50's. They just don't have a very long arc of political history they have lived through.
But I think many will be growing up fast in 2025 and 2026.
Arctic, I'm wondering if the rightward lean among 18-21 yo is reflective of the Republican efforts on partisan voter registration over the past four years as discussed in the interview with Tom Bonier.
This can be only part of the explanation, and personally I don’t think it is a major factor. After all, we’re seeing the same phenomenon in many Western countries, not just the US.
Thanks for the reply. You may be right, I may be crazy! But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for :)
Turning Point USA now touts 800+ campus chapters and if you look at the map it looks like they have extensive coverage in the battleground states. My understanding is voter registration is a big push for them. I don't know that much about the group's various orgs but Turning Point Action didn't form until 2019.
the senate dems may have lost on nominations. but now is the perfect time for the dem senate and house to align with millions and strategic groups to kill the budget bill. and in doing so, will put dems in front and being proactive with the people: for protecting them, and saving good things in the budget, and killing the bad things. many national groups will join in. this needs to be done! and in doing so, they will learn how effective it is. nancy did this to save obama care, and it worked! so it's not new. but this is the future of the party!! as you say, 24/7/365. the budget bill is the perfect foil for dems!!! it's just lousy in every way and the people dont really know about it. simon, enjoy SF. best food, art, community!!! try to get to pascual's.
My big question is simple: How can Democratic lawmakers, strategic groups and millions of Americans, actually leverage their influence to push enough Republican lawmakers to vote against the budget or at least remove some of its worst provisions? I ask this while pointing to a simple fact: it’s more and more apparent that Trump *owns* the party.
(Yes, I know we keep making calls and make our voices heard, but...)
Rs will only change their vote if they fear losing their seat in the next election. There aren’t that many who are truly vulnerable (yet) but we only need to change a few votes.
well, i dont know how nancy did it. but i remember seeing it on tv with saving obama care. there are probably 100M (wild guess) who are members of organizations that have clout, lobbyists, etc. and just like any bill, you start picking stuff apart. docs, hospitals, education, labor, etc. inundating repubs in house & senate. until the thing crumbles from its own weight. they have a VERY fragile hold on this bill, with lots of dissent. but maybe they would be happy with a CRA for the budget and just the tax giveaway to the billionaires. leaving everything else in tact, because that's all they could pass. in any case, this is how dems must proceed in order to win. and it would be mobilizing the country, which would help them win elections. they need to focus less on legislation & more on comms. actually, i think the dems need to pick off vulnerable repubs who hate the bill!!! with donny 2 dolls polling, maybe some of them can be brave.
What we are doing is having an effect. The calls tell the elected leaders of either party what we think, and the volume of calls clearly matters.
The protests are not just fun, they are helping uninvolved people find their courage. I was astonished at how many people I knew turned out on June 14 after never attending a protest. One person I know, a White man and US citizen, had been too afraid to speak up, but he found his courage last weekend!
The lawsuits are working. It keeps things in the headlines and delivers wins to us, even when the administration blows them off.
The pushback against ICE is working. I saw a protest sign on the news: “First they came for the immigrants and we said NO.” It is helping to define the American cultural stance, which is that we don’t like it.
And it undercuts the R’s claim that everyone agrees with them, which was the basis for all their mandate stuff. It would have been so much better if D’s had a majority in Congress or the White House, but we don’t, so it is a lot harder.
Maybe we could start by pressuring the GOP to debate the attack on Iran in Congress as spelled out in the Constitution. Give OLD Mr TWO_WEEKS a little advise and consent...
Thanks for the fantastic presentation yesterday. I have shared it in my groups and we are going to be discussing. Would love to know when the funding and staff are coming to New Jersey and Virginia as the need in these two states is clearly urgent. We are far behind on partisan voter registration, and we cannot beat Republicans without it.
Simon, thank you for this great discussion with Tom. I remember you calling for an all-out campaign to get young people registered -- wish that had happened. I've forwarded today's post to the grassroots activists I know in rural Virginia. Although Virginia doesn't register voters by party, we do know where Dems are likely hanging out and we need to get them registered.
I’ll add my thanks for the discussion with Tom Bonier. It was really interesting and I also plan to share it as much as possible. That’s interesting that VA doesn’t register voters by party, I wonder if CA is the same way. I need to learn more about the term “partisan voter registration “ and what it looks like in practice. It could simply mean, at least in some places or states, that the voter registration table is staffed by members of the local or state Dem Party group, who advocate for Democratic Party registration but ultimately leave the choice up to the person registering.
I'll chime in here. In California, one can register as a Republican, a Democrat, as Third Party/Other, of as Unaffiliated. As far as I can see, the Secretary of State website doesn't compile party registration in a way that's easy to find, but less official websites show data suggesting somewhere between 20-25% are registered Unaffiliated, substantiating the need to pare down that Unaffiliated number and increase the Dem number. (Here's a link - I did not/am not sure how to vet the source. https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ca)
I did a lot of voter registration in 2018-19, but I worked with the League of Women Voters, so we were not encouraging registration for a particular party. This time I'm interested in getting involved in Democratic voter registration.
I’ve heard that many voted (swing states) for senate nominees and local representatives, but left the “top” of their ballot blank. Is this true?
I think you're missing the importance of reaching NPAs and low information voters. Also I think the handling of Gazza had a major impact with many voters being turned off by the Democratic Party. We need to reach people in all generations, all regions, ethnicities, beliefs, and media preferences. We need to message them with truthful and empowering info that motivates them to vote.
I was saying this yesterday- any senator with a continuing record of voting for arms to Israel just has no chance of winning over leftists or even progressives, so long as the atrocity in Gaza continues unabated and there’s no prospect for any restorative justice after it’s over.
I am going to engage here - there is very little evidence from 2024 that Gaza or Israel's actions played a major role in what happened in the election. If folks have that data they need to share it but even for young people in the polls leading up to election day Gaza rated very very far down the list of issues of concern. Again I am open to this view but it has to be backed up with data and I have to yet see any data that suggests that Gaza was a significant issue in shaping opinion last year.
As a data scientist, I concur. Until I see different numbers, I'm going with the presentation's findings.
It’s the first thing I look for when I am asked to donate. If it’s a senator, I check that voting record before reaching for my wallet. I am more willing than a lot of my peers to be understanding about our need for an ally in the region, but endless arms with zero conditions isn’t something I can accept when what those arms are being used for long since passed the bounds of international law or anything resembling basic morality.
Ruth, what in the world are you talking about here? Did you read my 7 takeaways, or watch the video, or read anything I've written since the election?
If you think Gaza mattered produce data showing it did. Open to it. But to be clear - I am not missing anything here. Everything you raise here has been central to post elections discussions and analysis.
Ruth.. I just googled "gaza polls/2024 election".. I'm sure comment will arise here that can tell us if these polls are credible, but they were numerous and assertive as to how US non involvement hurt Dems voter support in 2024.
Here is one example
https://www.aaiusa.org/library/new-poll-american-voters-on-trumps-handling-of-palestine/israel-at-home-and-abroad
I have no way of knowing their credibility, but all I have to do is watch the news and see the starving and dismantling of Gaza and the the suffering and continuing attacks on innocents to make me understand where such OPINION polls are coming from...
Young people who vote have to be more attuned than me to such contradictions.
This is not an independent poll. The last two major young polls done before the election had Israel Gaza at the bottom of list of concerns. Given the economic disruptions of COVID it’s simply impossible to believe that something happening far away with no material bearing on their lives would rate high for young people. I wrote about this a lot last year and will dig up the data. Feel free to look at the post election reports from CIRCLE and Harvard IOP. I am open to this being a thing but I don’t think it was.
Thanks..
I guess I am fishing for more demonstrative assertions of what us Dems stand for..
or should... perhaps beyond the crosstabs!
Wow! What great work! Thank you!
Mahmoud Khalil has finally walked free.
On the topic of Gen Z: Hopium colleagues, are you familiar with Jean Twenge? I think of her as the queen of generations deep data research and insights. She wrote an article for The Atlantic that appeared yesterday; good timing for us. I hope you have access; the gift article button wasn't showing up. Anyway, the title and teaser line say a lot:
"The Myth of the Gen Z Red Wave: The best available evidence suggests that the youth-vote shift in 2024 was more a one-off event than an ideological realignment."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/06/gen-z-red-wave/683212/
Which does NOT mean we're off the hook to winning back Gen Z, but might change the approach since she points out they're the most depressed & discouraged generation, so could fall into a pattern of throwing each group out each cycle.
I'm also inclined to believe it was a one-off due to the trump factor, mostly due to how well we did in 2020 and 2022. That, combined with this anti-incumbency see saw we've been on for a while now.
Thanks for the link. I will read the article but also wanted to again post the link to Michael Podhorzer's most recent election analysis.
https://www.weekendreading.net/p/the-re-emerging-anti-maga-majority
In this and earlier posts Michael questions the whole "rightward shift" narrative. Here is a passage from the post regarding Trump's tanking poll numbers.
"Those numbers don’t show that Trump has squandered some deep reservoir of support, or that he has “overreached.” Those polling numbers show that Trump’s earlier support depended on voters not understanding or believing he would do what he said he would do if elected. On tariffs, deportations, and other issues that are cratering his approval ratings, Trump is now doing almost precisely what he said he would do.5 And voters hate it—including the “less engaged” voters who were supposedly too hard to reach before November with warnings about it."
I would encourage folks to read the above post and spend some time on Michael's substack. He makes a crucial contribution to what happened to elect Trump and what we need to do going forward.
Calling on Hopium supporters in the North East! Time to take on the portions of the "Big, Bad, Bill" that increase hunger!
JUNE 25TH IS THE NORTHEAST DAY OF ACTION.
Join advocates across the northeast region on June 25th in a powerful day of action to send a strong message: The Northeast says NO to proposals that gut the lifelines that keep our communities fed and healthy.
Congress is moving quickly to pass cuts to SNAP, Medicaid, and other programs that will strip food off the table for millions of Americans.
The House already voted to cut these programs by more than $1 trillion, and the Senate is poised to vote on their proposals, which are equally devastating.
We can stop them. But we need your help.
June 25th will be a day of action urging Senators in every northeast state to vote NO on the budget bill that aims to slash our most important basic needs programs. It will also be a day for northeasterners to reach out to friends in other regions of the country to make sure they are contacting their Senators, urging them to vote NO.
What can you do now?
Save the date and share this post on your social media and other communication channels!
Phone Bank with advocates across the Northeast! Learn more & register here.
Submit a Letter to the Editor using these templates.
What can you do on June 25th?
Direct your network to take action by emailing or calling their Senators.
Post on social media using this toolkit
Wait, when did June 25 just become a day of action and I'm only hearing about it now? Send links & templates please. Is Indivisible organizing this? I just got their newsletter and it didn't say anything. Or I missed something. I"ll check. Thanks for posting!!
This is an action being organized by https://makehungerhistoryma.org/.
Here's the link to join:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdU9JS5hdaOszHELSPbMtTR94xEih6Cza6THXKc1SyH8tPbjQ/viewform
Here's the templates for letters to the editor: https://docs.google.com/document/d/13VC9o7IRfppisqAyt0d2dNSfrodUBB58bABg3Ha4-2o/edit?tab=t.0
Here is the Project Bread link for reaching out to your Senators: https://projectbread.quorum.us/campaign/125534/
Here is their social media toolkit:https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1qjzVK5MzHjkrsrcXQjtK5wG8pJXUDu_F
Look forward to anyone and everyone joining. This attacks the parts of the Reconciliation bill which create more hunger in America. Others could organize similar days to speak out against the cuts to medicaid, the sale of public lands, the cuts to the ACA, the cuts to medicare, the tax cut for the wealthy. We don't have many days left before the Senate passes something so let's try to make it at least less bad!
Thanks all!
WOW Thank you Mark!
I volunteered with Field Team 6 during the election. Partisan voter registration is what they do, and they were screaming from the rooftops about this problem last year. They did everything they could but cannot make up for a lack of a large coordinated effort from the party. I’m frankly shocked we dropped the ball so hard on this. I know Simon called for a national youth voter registration drive way back in 2023. I wonder why that proposal wasn’t taken seriously. It’s not like Dems didn’t have the money.
Clearly the people in charge had other priorities. Hopefully this new data will convince them they were wrong! Or better yet -- to get in new people who understand what's needed.
According to Simon, Ken Martin and the new DNC leadership get this and are prioritizing voter registration. So I’m hopeful we can make up the gap.
Yes, Simon has gone over this in the past. They basically just did not want to listen to his admonitions on this subject.
I watched this interview and agree with the need for Dem voter registration drives, but also important is the need for monitoring voter purges at local and state Boards of Election meetings. As an engaged Democratic GA voter in blue Dekalb County, I have witnessed the vote purge assault at local BOE meetings. It is important to attend those BOE meetings and educate the public how to check their voter registration status.
The Civic Center in LA is involved with non partisan high school student voter registration drives throughout the country. I always thought setting up statewide high school voter registration competitions and offering a prize (ice cream party?) to the proportionally largest winner could be a way to incentivize students to register.
Excellent discussion with Tom Bonier.
I'd like to see a nuts-and-bolts discussion of how Democratic partisan voter registration would work-- especially in places like here in Virginia, where people don't register by party affiliation.
Why have Republicans been so successful at it? What exactly are they doing?
I’ve wondered the same thing. I’ve worked with League of Women Voters, a group that does non-partisan registration. The best places to register include high schools and naturalization ceremonies—of course all first time voters. Democrats couldn’t really table at schools—not sure about naturalization events. But there must be ways to host picnics and such to encourage first time voters to show up.
I've also wondered this, since pretty much the going message from the GOP seems to be constantly downplaying voter registration and voting in general. I never see voter outreach efforts on their part, so would like to know exactly the types of outreach they are doing and via what channels. Or, if it is more a matter of our "non-partisan" approach inadvertently recruiting republican voters for them while they sit back and coast on our efforts. One common example of us unintentionally helping them is the tendency for us to post platitudes like, "I don't care who you vote for as long as you vote." I'm like, are you kidding?! I want no part of increasing republican rosters, or "independent" voter rosters for that matter. It's time for full-fledged partisan Democratic voting and to stop running away from the idea that we have a political party.
When I was canvassing last year, a lot of NPP voters said they hated Democrats, and I did tell them that we can disagree but it was good they were voting. Did I really think that? Of course not! But I had two reasons for saying it:
I wanted them to see that Democrats are serious about voting rights for all, not just people we agree with.
I wanted them to have a pleasant encounter with a Democrat to counter all the lies about us hating America, socialism, all that stuff. (I had a few right-leaning voters comment on how nice I was despite being a Democrat. 🙄)
And anyway, when confronted with a Trump voter, best not to make them mad. I am not someone who can do physical confrontations.
I agree completely, and especially learning what exactly the GOP did right to increase GOP registration. What exactly did that look like at the level of individual engagement?
One need not hope in order to undertake, nor succeed in order to persevere.
- William The Silent, aka William, Prince of Orange, April 24, 1533 - July 10, 1584.
Was a Dutch Revolt leader against Spain. He was the first European politician to be assassinated by a gun.
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
― Frank Herbert, Dune
Project 2025 Trackers:
https://www.project2025.observer .
https://substack.com/@project2025progress .
https://substack.com/@ahmedbaba/p-158109308 .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPElaGebGPc (timestamps 13:10 and 55:07).
Simon et al.:
Pigpen is back to SAVE WESTERN CIVILIZATION (i.e. read online for free if you must— “The Camp of the Saints” and “The Turner Diaries”) as Leon has been forced to take a less obvious role in politics and return to his dreams of Mars and world conquest: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacexs-starship-explodes-in-texas-during-preparations-for-10th-test-flight . One could summarize some of Pigpen’s favorite works of “literature” with three words: “GREAT REPLACEMENT THEORY.” Also, America’s first (and so far only) African-American President is concerned about the democratic stability of the country that he loves dearly. Therefore, the following two interviews are a MUST watch for their divergent views of the nation:
Here is Pigpen at the Christian Science Monitor Breakfast (timestamp - 42:42* CHINA AND RUSSIA as allies equals Yalta 2.0 and 47:38 and 52:53* and 01:00:42): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXJTCMVOiEI .
Here is Former President Obama: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM9B8Qin9ac .
The contrast is powerful between the sense of “Hope and Change” and the resentments of the ardent “Leninist.” Pigpen, of course, lies consistently (e.g. election fraud, etc.) throughout the event. He also visited the White House yesterday (reading recent polls?). He wants Dolos to avoid a Middle East war in order to focus on implementing deportation raids of at least 10 million people.
The MSM doesn’t seem to understand that he likely hates them along with the rules-based order (including the Constitution). Remember his predictions about January 6. PIGPEN WANTS A SUMMER OF CHAOS and a war in the Gulf would get in the way (timestamp - 17:27, 19:00*, 19:40, 20:33, 22:30*, 24:32, 24:55*, 25:50, 26:35*, and 27:30**): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGKFJPbaFLc !!
Note that Pigpen specifically mentioned MBZ, the ruler of the UAE and a proponent of the “transparent citizen” (i.e. no privacy for the ruled) concept. MBZ has also spoken with Putin in the last day or so. The Gulf Cooperation Council does not want a regional war, i.e. between Israel and Iran. For a quick refresher on MBZ, here is a great podcast (like the better-known MBS, he has great ambitions): https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/new-power-in-the-gulf-the-rise-of-mbz/id1593634121?i=1000645997390 .
CARTHAGO DELENDA EST (via nonviolence).
P.S. : DEMOCRATIC officials keep mentioning (and showing) Jan. 6 and the PARDONS relative to the current “law and order” push by Dolos and his associates. This is a simple but strong contrast. Use social media to promote testimonies by former “January 6 Commission” members and witnesses. YES, re-litigate Jan. 6 - again and again and again. Dolos needs to realize that he lives in a GLASS HOUSE. Go on Faux News Channel because it is just like an “unrepresented” Republican district - i.e. plenty of visuals devoid of facts. The VISUAL EVIDENCE IS NOW ON YOUR SIDE. GO ON ESPN (a male-leaning channel) and express concern about the viability of the pending World Cup with actors like Dolos and Miller in the mix. With measles rampant and anti-vax officials influencing policy, will tourists want to visit the USA (weak ticket sales?): https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/soccer/heres-what-fifa-president-gianni-infantino-said-about-ice-cbp-agents-at-club-world-cup/ar-AA1GwUkA ?
P.P.S.: Do the following now! FIRST, TEACH CIVICS. Second, register voters. THIRD, TEACH CIVICS. Rinse. Repeat.
P.P.P.S.: Every local office of the Democratic Party and of the elected officials (including state representatives on up) must become a site for civic teach-ins and a clearing house for needed services (with Federal departments being sabotaged). The fact is that Democrats believe in the value of government and of government service, and the other side (i.e. the MAGAts and the illiberals) simply doesn’t. This engagement process will make registering partisan voters and teaching civics much easier.