Dems Now Up On The Economy, Fighting The Gulaging of America, Time For Criminal Referrals For DOGE

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Morning all. Holy smokes is there a lot going on. Will do my best to work through it this morning…..

Let’s start with this important reminder:

• We are stronger and Trump is weaker

• We must act with great urgency as Trump is breaking things that will be hard if not impossible to repair

In New Poll Dems More Trusted On The Economy - In this week’s Morning Consult weekly tracking poll Trump’s job approval clocks in at 45%-52%, down a staggering 15 points since Week 1. It also found Democrats leading on the economy for the first time since May of 2021 (big deal!!!!):

Democrats regain economic advantage: For the first time since May 2021, more voters trust Democrats in Congress than their Republican counterparts to handle the economy (46% to 43%). That 3-percentage-point edge for Democrats — their largest since April 2021 — underlines a stark unraveling for the GOP, which had come off the 2024 election with a double-digit advantage on the matter.

In addition to being ruinous economic policy that has helped contribute to the worst first 100 days of any Americabn Presidency, we cannot forget that Trump has no legal or Constitutional authority to be levying his terrible tariffs. They are literally present-day “taxation without representation,” and an extraordinary, deeply unpopular abuse of power. Only a third of Americans right now believe that Trump can and should impose these enormous across the board tax increases without Congressional assent:

Be sure to watch my recent interview With Senator Tim Kaine who is leading the charge in Congress to rescind these terrible tariffs. Fighting them remains Job One here at Hopium.

A Dozen House Rs Balk On Medicaid Cuts, Vulnerable Rs Running Scared - Huge news from Punchbowl this morning:

A dozen House Republicans are warning GOP leaders that they won’t back a reconciliation package that includes massive cuts to Medicaid, according to a letter first obtained by Punchbowl News.

It’s an escalation of what’s going to be the most difficult problem for Republicans as they try to pass President Donald Trump’s agenda in the coming months.

These moderate Republicans, many of them in key swing seats, are going to be locked in a battle of wills with conservative hardliners who want to slash federal spending, including Medicaid and other social safety net programs.

The fate of Republicans’ behemoth reconciliation bill — which will also carry key GOP priorities like tax cuts, a Pentagon spending hike and more border security funding — is linked to the Medicaid standoff.

Remember, House Republicans’ reconciliation plan includes cutting $880 billion under the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s purview, much of which will likely have to come from Medicaid.

The message: The moderate Republicans’ letter to House GOP leadership and Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) says Medicaid cuts could threaten nursing homes and hospitals, especially in rural and underserved areas.

Here’s the key part:

“We support targeted reforms to improve program integrity, reduce improper payments, and modernize delivery systems to fix flaws in the program that divert resources away from children, seniors, individuals with disabilities, and pregnant women — those who the program was intended to help.

“However, we cannot and will not support a final reconciliation bill that includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.”

The House Republicans who signed onto the letter include: Reps. David Valadao (Calif.), Don Bacon (Neb.), Jeff Van Drew (N.J.), Rob Bresnahan (Pa.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Jen Kiggans (Va.), Young Kim (Calif.), Rob Wittman (Va.), Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.), Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.) and Jeff Hurd (Colo.).

It’s not clear exactly where these members will draw the line just yet, or if it’ll be the same across the group. There’s a general acceptance, for the most part, of cutting “waste, fraud and abuse” in Medicaid programs. But Republicans will clash over the specifics in the weeks ahead and that’s where things get tricky.

“There’s reasonable actions we can support like work requirements for able bodied adults without children and auditing the Medicaid list,” Bacon told us. “But there will not be the votes to cut Medicaid for those who need it or to the hospitals that we need to preserve.”

Kim said in a statement that a reconciliation package “that does not protect vital Medicaid services for the most vulnerable citizens in my community will not receive my vote,” adding she’s made that clear to constituents and GOP leadership.

And…..

The politics: This group of more centrist Republicans is signaling that they’re willing to play hardball to avoid Medicaid cuts, which would have big impacts back home. These sorts of members aren’t usually the ones to threaten to take down major legislation. But there are enormous political and policy stakes at play here.

Across the Capitol, a number of GOP senators — including several with large Medicaid populations — also have warned party leaders against making draconian cuts to the popular program.

Democrats have been hammering Republicans over the potential Medicaid cuts, saying it will jeopardize the health of millions of children and low-income families.

We’ve reported the hefty investment in ad buys that House Majority Forward, the HMP-aligned organization, launched against Republicans last month. This is going to be one of the most prominent messaging wars heading into the 2026 cycle.

We’ll also note the Medicaid ads are coming from all sorts of groups and organizations. The American Cancer Society is running digital ads on the potential Medicaid cuts, including in Louisiana. Several California labor unions are running ads saying rural hospitals rely on Medicaid funding.

Democrats have tied the Medicaid cuts to Republicans’ tax plans, making the case that the GOP will slash the health care program while also preserving lower tax rates for wealthier Americans

In a sign the Democratic attacks are working, some White House officials are talking about letting taxes go up or creating a new top tax rate for some of the wealthiest Americans, as Bloomberg reported.

We don’t expect Republicans to ditch decades of GOP orthodoxy around tax cuts. GOP leaders have made extremely clear they don’t want to raise tax rates — even for the rich. But with unrelenting pressure from conservatives to slash social safety net programs as part of the tax bill, Republicans are in a very difficult spot.

New Navigator data shows why vulnerable Republicans are right to be worried about cutting health care for almost 100m people in America:

Friends, scared Republicans and declining Trump poll numbers are evidence that this work we do every day can make a difference. Minds can change. Courage can be contagious. Prominent universities can defy our mad leader. And we have to keep working it people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Senator Van Hollen Has Left For El Salvador - The Senator released this video this morning:

Here is Kilmar Abregro Garcia’s wife, Jennifer, yesterday. Please watch this and try not to cry……

In a hearing yesterday with Trump Administration lawyers, the judge overseeing Abrego Garcia’s case announced she intends to depose Trump officials after their refusal to follow orders from her and the Supreme Court:

A federal judge on Tuesday said she will require the Trump administration to produce records and sworn answers about the U.S. government’s attempts, or lack thereof, to return a Maryland resident who was apprehended by immigration authorities and illegally sent to a notorious prison in El Salvador.

The decision from U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis, where she left open the possibility of a contempt ruling against the Trump administration, marks another escalation in the legal showdown with the White House. The case has widespread implications, with Justice Department lawyers arguing that the judge lacks the authority to force them to coordinate with the Salvadoran government to bring Kilmar Abrego García back to the United States.

“It’s going to be two weeks of intense discovery,” Xinis told Justice Department attorneys at the hearing.

A new Greg Sargent article in The New Republic reports that the evidence Trump people have that Abrego Garcia was a gang member came from a dirty, discredited cop (which is why we everyone is entitled to due process).

A terrific new analysis from G. Elliott Morris argues that Trump is on far weaker ground on his “immigration” policies than is conventional wisdom in DC right now. The key charts:

We need to keep the pressure on here everyone. For remember:

We are Americans. Fighting for freedom and democracy is what we do. It is who we are.

Time For Dems, Possibly State AGs, To File Criminal Referrals For Musk and DOGE Staff - NPR’s new bombshell story about DOGE’s ransacking of the National Labor Relations Board is another confirmation that Musk and DOGE are malevolent actors, breaking laws and doing extraordinary harm to the country:

according to an official whistleblower disclosure shared with Congress and other federal overseers that was obtained by NPR, subsequent interviews with the whistleblower and records of internal communications, technical staff members were alarmed about what DOGE engineers did when they were granted access, particularly when those staffers noticed a spike in data leaving the agency. It's possible that the data included sensitive information on unions, ongoing legal cases and corporate secrets — data that four labor law experts tell NPR should almost never leave the NLRB and that has nothing to do with making the government more efficient or cutting spending.

Meanwhile, according to the disclosure and records of internal communications, members of the DOGE team asked that their activities not be logged on the system and then appeared to try to cover their tracks behind them, turning off monitoring tools and manually deleting records of their access — evasive behavior that several cybersecurity experts interviewed by NPR compared to what criminal or state-sponsored hackers might do.

The employees grew concerned that the NLRB's confidential data could be exposed, particularly after they started detecting suspicious log-in attempts from an IP address in Russia, according to the disclosure. Eventually, the disclosure continued, the IT department launched a formal review of what it deemed a serious, ongoing security breach or potentially illegal removal of personally identifiable information. The whistleblower believes that the suspicious activity warrants further investigation by agencies with more resources, like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency or the FBI.

And…..

In the days after Berulis and his colleagues prepared a request for CISA's help investigating the breach, Berulis found a printed letter in an envelope taped to his door, which included threatening language, sensitive personal information and overhead pictures of him walking his dog, according to the cover letter attached to his official disclosure. It's unclear who sent it, but the letter made specific reference to his decision to report the breach. Law enforcement is investigating the letter.

"If the underlying disclosure wasn't concerning enough, the targeted, physical intimidation and surveillance of my client is. If this is happening to Mr. Berulis, it is likely happening to others and brings our nation more in line with authoritarian regimes than with open and free democracies," wrote Bakaj, his attorney, in a statement sent to NPR. "It is time for everyone – and Congress in particular – to acknowledge the facts and stop our democracy, freedom, and liberties from slipping away, something that will take generations to repair."

Yes, we need A Letter To America, and we need it now. For more on fighting DOGE see my recent interview with Virginia Congressman Don Beyer.

Trump’s Pick For US Attorney In DC Is Another Dangerous Russian Stooge - Not surprising, but still jawdropping. From The Washington Post this morning:

Hours before President Donald Trump announced U.S. missile strikes on Syria in response to a chemical attack that killed 90 civilians in April 2017, Ed Martin said on the Russian state television network RT America that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad might not be to blame. Instead, Martin told viewers, the situation was “engineered” in Washington “by the people that want war in Syria.”

In early 2022, Martin told an interviewer on the same arm of RT’s global network that “there’s no evidence” of a Russian military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, criticizing U.S. officials as warmongering and ignoring Russia’s security concerns. Russia invaded nine days later, igniting a war that continues today.

Martin is now interim U.S. attorney for D.C. and Trump’s pick to serve full time in the role. But as a conservative activist and former Missouri Republican official, he appeared more than 150 times on RT and Sputnik — networks funded and directed by the Russian government — as a guest commentator from August 2016 to April 2024, according to a search of their websites and the Internet Archive’s database of television broadcasts.

Martin did not disclose the appearances last month on a Senate Judiciary Committee questionnaire, which asks nominees to list all media interviews. Analysis of television archives suggests he went on RT and Sputnik more often than on any major cable network during that span.

Martin’s frequent appearances, reviewed by The Washington Post, drew rebukes from some national security analysts, who accused him of amplifying anti-American propaganda on Russian outlets that the State Department last year said had moved beyond disinformation to engage in covert influence activities aimed at undermining democracies worldwide for President Vladimir Putin’s regime.

Now, Let’s Get To Work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Long email today, so only three recommended actions today (and you can find our full list of recommended actions and campaigns here). Hopium paid subscribers can register for our regular gathering tonight at 7pm ET here.

1 - Demand Congress Take Back Their Tariff Authority From Trump - Call/contact your Senators and House Member today and demand they override and roll back these incredibly dangerous and destructive tariffs. Insist they sign on to the new Kaine resolution! Watch my new interview with Senator Tim Kaine to learn more.

2 - Fight The Trump-Musk Attack On Our Government, Our Privacy And Our Constitutional Order - Encourage your Senators and Representatives to follow Senator Booker’s lead and let Facts be be submitted to a candid world in a joint Senate-House Letter to America; to hold their own hearings; to file criminal referrals for Musk and his malicious posse to DOJ/FBI and amicus briefs in the court cases regarding the usurpation of their Constitutional authorities or file suits of their own (House Dems began doing this several weeks ago). Encourage them to hold a daily morning press conference to more aggressively challenge Musk’s wild ransacking of the US government that is making America less prosperous, less healthy, less safe and far less respected in the world.

Watch my new discussion with Stuart Stevens and Rick Wilson of Lincoln Square to learn more about why Congress must craft A Letter To America now.

3 - Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Virginia will be one of the big battlegrounds of the November, 2025 elections and we have a great candidate for Governor, Abigail Spanberger. Watch my interview with Abigail, donate, volunteer, and learn more here. Given how many federal employees live in Virginia, this race is also now on the front lines of the Trump/Musk assault on the federal government.

We’ve raised more than $79,000 so far towards our June 30th goal of $250,000 - thank you all. Let’s keep working it for Abigail!

……….

Keep working hard all. We are making a difference. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon