Loudness should not be confused with numerical support. Quite the contrary: the loudness is a compensation. It is increasingly clear that the Biden Administration is doing everything it possibly can to:
1) reduce civilian casualties and suffering, and
2) halt hostilities and return hostages
That is very difficult to achieve when neither Sinwar nor Netanyahu want the fighting to end.
Today on the Dobbs anniversary, and to remind voters that trump with the help of SCOTUS took away women’s rights to make their own decisions about their reproductive healthcare, there is a social media blast—spreading this message. If you are on social media, please consider amplifying this. These messages are already created and contain videos or memes. Just select the message you like and then pick which platform you’d like to post it on. Here’s the toolkit, https://mbl.ms/g4qzwyfPRss
Hi. I’m a supporter but the quote below - shouldn’t that difference be 11 points, not seven?
“Now, new polling from Fox News shows a seven-point swing in President Joe Biden’s favorability among independents: They prefer Biden by 9 points, a reversal from May, when they favored Trump by 2 points.”
Simon, this comment pertains not just to this particular post but to the entire Hopium project.
An “Eye on the Prize” might be motivating for this November’s elections. With an effective win, what might be accomplished? Our country needs to repair the damage caused by Trump and MAGA and put safeguards in place for the future. Here is an outline for a program of reforms that came to mind. A conversation about these items would be interesting. Please comment!
Ensure voting equity:
A. Create Universal Voter Registration for all American citizens of voting age and create a Vote by Mail system for all federal elections to ELIMINATE voter suppression. Use the data the Post Office maintains to perform its job. The U.S. Postal Service currently receives data from the National Vital Statistics System regarding births, deaths, marriages, and divorces in America. This gives them the capacity to keep this National Voter Registration clean and up to date. In addition, the U.S. Postal Service should be given data from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services regarding new naturalized citizens. Mail ballots appropriate for each citizen well before election dates so they have weeks to research and consider their choices. Include two prepaid envelopes: one for the ballot, addressed to the appropriate state office for tallying votes; another addressed back to the National Voter Registration Office for a signed acknowledgement-of-receipt form. Receipt of this acknowledgement (in a timely manner so the Federal Voter Registration Office can forward a list of voters activated for the current election to each state office responsible for the state vote tally) would be required to activate the ballot. With pressure from their residents, state governments might be induced to petition the federal government to extend the system to cover their state elections, which should be accommodated.
B. Maine and Vermont currently allow incarcerated felons to vote. Federalize that standard for all states.
C. Mandate Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) in all federal elections. (With voters' familiarity with RCV in federal elections and to avoid the complexity of using two systems, states will be induced to adopt RCV in state elections and primaries as well.) This should nullify the “voters’ dilemma”: Choose your true favorite first BUT make your second choice an acceptable mainstream candidate with a plausible chance of winning to avoid “wasting” your vote. If your favorite is eliminated in the instant run-off rounds, your second choice will count. Having removed the "voters' dilemma" impediment to voting for a non-Duopoly candidate, that independent favorite's chances of winning are amplified, and the maintenance of the Duopoly created by the "voters' dilemma" in our current defective one-choice-only voting system is eliminated. Also, gathering second-choice, third-choice, etc., votes to create a winning majority will require conciliation and moderation among the candidates: firebrands lose! However, the current defective voting system gives all incumbents an advantage. An organized grass-roots movement may be necessary to induce the Democrats in Congress to pass this legislation.
D. Pass federal legislation endorsing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. If the Supreme Court rejects the NPVIC when it activates (and renders the effect of the Electoral College void), refuse to accept the ruling (see SCOTUS section below).
E. Combat gerrymandering within states by creating super-districts with multiple House Representatives.
Eliminate legislative impediments to effective government:
A. The Senate filibuster has degenerated into a standard requirement for a super-majority. This is anti-democratic. Permanently abolish the Senate filibuster!
B. The “debt limit” involves giving "permission" to pay debts previously incurred by Congress, but the 14th Amendment, Section 4 says: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law…shall not be questioned”. Abolish the debt limit process! It serves no good purpose; it is mischievous and potentially damaging to the country; and its premise is unconstitutional.
Expand federally protected civil rights:
A. Re-establish the national right of reproductive self-determination previously provided by the Roe decision.
B. Make a comprehensive search of rights issues that have ever been addressed by the Supreme Court and supplement them with federal legislation where SCOTUS may “change its mind” as it did with Roe.
Combat political corruption:
A. Legislate to cancel the abominable Citizens United decision and all other SCOTUS decisions legalizing money corruption in politics: Of the People, By the People, For the People; NOT--Of the Money, By the Money, For the Money.
B. Federally fund all federal elections. Limit personal election contributions to a modest level anyone might afford.
C. Military officers involved in acquisitions are forbidden from becoming corporate officers of the companies they did business with for five years after retirement from the military. This is called stopping the "revolving door". Stop the revolving door also for all Senators, Representatives, their top staff, high level executive officials up to the President with lobbying organizations; and all regulatory agency officials with the organizations they oversee (most especially FDA officials and pharmaceutical companies).
Combat information corruption in media:
A. Vigorously enforce anti-trust legislation. Direct the enforcing agencies (FTC and DOJ) to gradually break up all media-dominating organizations.
B. Make all media (print, broadcast, and online) legally responsible for the truthfulness of their content.
C. Legislate whatever might be required to strengthen activity combatting foreign misinformation campaigns attacking our electoral process or aggravating civil strife.
Combat Supreme Court corruption.
A. Modify the 1803 Marbury Usurpation. Legislate a mechanism that any SCOTUS decision affecting federal legislation will activate an automatic Congressional review, with simple majority votes enabling rejection of the SCOTUS decision. A retrospective process should examine for reversal past Court decisions. (In particular, this applies to the tendentious Heller decision that ignores the opening phrase of the Second Amendment: “A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,…”. The consequences of Heller exacerbate the current rampant gun violence in America.)
B. Establish a Standing Committee to oversee Supreme Court ethical behavior. Define what constitutes “good behavior” including absence of persistent political partisanship (which will require an explicit written definition to facilitate impeachment and removal).
Combat extreme concentrations of wealth:
A. Establish a very substantial inheritance tax for the highest wealth bracket. Define legitimate charitable foundations that may be set up as an alternative to tax payment.
B. Discriminate favorably for entrepreneurial wealth over what Thomas Piketty in his book, Capital, describes as rentier (i.e., stagnant) wealth. (Peter Diamandis frequently says, "If you want to be a billionaire, solve a problem for a billion people!")
C. Currently, taxes on unrealized profits are cancelled upon death of the stockholder. Eliminate this provision and mandate that that tax be paid by inheritors.
D. Corporation’s buyback of their own stock appears to have no other function than the concentration of wealth. Its prohibition should be considered.
E. Comprehensively review the federal tax code to eliminate loopholes that have no rational basis.
F. Set up a mechanism to ensure adequate funding for IRS agents to detect tax fraud.
Support the General Welfare:
A. Establish the first rudimentary form of Universal Basic Income (UBI), which will evolve and amplify as the Labor Disruption (rapidly advancing AI plus Robotics: see RethinkX) eliminates toil (work for survival) over the next two decades. (The remaining "work" will be human activities driven by self-actualization.)
B. Until robust UBI becomes ample enough to create universal abundance, fund a social welfare program to comprehensively support the poor.
C. Establish a publicly supported Universal Education (for adults as well as children) aimed at supporting self-actualization and combatting the problem of “lack of meaning” when labor for survival has been rendered obsolete.
D. Establish Universal Health Care focused on the maintenance of health (life-style direction and support, and comprehensive diagnostic testing), with “unwellness care” as backup when health maintenance fails. (The coming Labor Disruption in healthcare will remove the current bottlenecks regarding timely effective healthcare service.)
E. The four “Disruptions” (Energy, Transportation, Food, and Labor) analyzed and discussed by the non-profit foundation, RethinkX, promise the tools to comprehensively mitigate and then repair the centuries of damage to the Earth inflicted by fossil and other non-renewable fuels. (See the YouTube series, Brighter, by the research director of RethinkX, Adam Dorr.) Incumbent fossil fuel industries are doing whatever they can to slow the processes leading to their own bankruptcy, putting their financial interests ahead of the welfare of all life on Earth. Make certain through legislation that they are prevented from using political corruption to further these efforts.
F. Establish a comprehensive “ARPA” (Advanced Research Projects Agency) to ensure that beneficial technologies are identified and vigorously pursued, with either private or public funding.
All these possibilities depend upon the Democrats achieving control of the national government this November. Let the Hope motivate the Work!
Janet, "Insure voter equity D." in effect does that:
"Pass federal legislation endorsing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. If the Supreme Court rejects the NPVIC when it activates (and renders the effect of the Electoral College void), refuse to accept the ruling (see SCOTUS section below)."
"Combat Supreme Court Corruption: A. Modify the 1803 Marbury Usurpation. Legislate a mechanism that any SCOTUS decision affecting federal legislation will activate an automatic Congressional review, with simple majority votes enabling rejection of the SCOTUS decision."
Directly eliminating the Electoral College would require a Constitutional amendment: a practical impossibility, but the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) will be an effective workaround, rendering the Electoral College void. The states who join the compact add their electoral votes together. When the sum of their electoral votes comprise a winning majority (currently 270 votes) the Pact will be activated: Each pledges to assign their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. The Electoral College still exists, but with NPVIC activated it is rendered irrelevant. States that have currently enacted NPVIC control 209 electoral votes. Another 81 electoral votes are controlled by states where joining the pact has been partially accomplished. Because the popular vote has consistently gone to the Democrats except 2004, our corrupt Supreme Court, for partisan reasons, might try to block adoption of NPVIC. The Supreme Court's power to rule on Constitutionality is not in the Constitution. It arose out of a Court case, Marbury v. Madison in 1803, the Marbury Doctrine, unilaterally asserted by the Supreme Court. That's why I call it the Marbury Usurpation, and propose that, finally, Congress pushes back.
I am hearing more and more about how incredibly inflationary Maganomics policy is expected to be - esp hitting working and middle class consumers hard (see Ezra Klein's latest podcast and Heather Cox Richardson today - Lawrence O Donnell the other night). Trump is proposing 10% tariffs on all imports except Chinese imports which he wants to tax much higher. This will raise the price of all consumer goods and as Ezra points out domestic manufacturers set their prices based on international trade so if outside counties raise their prices - US companies will be only glad to do so as well. Trump is also talking about taking control of the Fed - probably precipitously lowering interest rates which would also cause an inflationary spiral. And if he tries to deport 11 million immigrants - this will completely increase the cost of so many of our goods and services which are provided by immigrants who keep costs down. It will be a disastrous policy! So for all the voters concerned about inflation - many of whom are Republican - they need to hear this message from all angles and loud and clear!
There was also an analysis released last week by Moody's, the credit ratings firm, that found Biden’s agenda soundly pro-growth while determining that Trump’s would cause an inflation spike and recession.
Thinking about the debate this week, it seems the single objective the MAGA GOP is focused on is demonstrating Joe Biden is too mentally and physically feeble for a second term. Especially compared to their Super Zombie, Donald Trump, who has no recognizable human brain.
What’s really so wonderful about MAGA’s no-issue strategy is the proof they have nothing of substance on which to attack Biden. The MAGA are admitting, by omission, that Joe’s Biden’s 1st term has been a phenomenal success. In desperation, they’re asking the county to believe his age will prevent a repeat of his 1st term success. That leaves MAGA with the really bad bet on Trump and leaves us with really good bet on Biden. Go Joe
Another thing about that CBS News/YouGov poll: it showed virtually no change from the poll taken two weeks prior, right after the conviction. Trump still leads by a meaningless point (50-49), but as Simon has pointed out Biden gained 3 last time and that gain is confirmed not to have been an outlier.
I also found it interesting that in a poll where Trump got 50%, essentially that number or fewer thought that Biden's age made him out-of-touch (51%), ineffective (46%), or likely to make bad decisions (49% - 43% said the same about Trump FWIW). The only age-related concern that significantly exceeded Trump's share was the morbid one - 60% said he might not finish a second term.
For personal financial situation, good beat bad 54%-43% overall and 52%-44% among Independents. Similarly, 43% said Biden's policies hurt the economy. That was the plurality, but it trailed Trump's percentage and was exceeded by the 47% who said it had either helped or made no difference. I'm not sure Republicans are winning the economic argument with those numbers, particularly in light of Navigator's findings that Democratic lawmakers are WAY more trusted on the economy.
It also doesn't hurt that Trump got hammered by two independent economic assessments in the past few days. Moody's had Biden's economic policy winning a blowout in every single category (https://meidasnews.com/news/moodys-trumps-economic-plan-would-trigger-a-recession-by-2025). This morning, that was followed up with an independent assessment that Trump added twice as much to the national debt as Biden (https://www.axios.com/2024/06/24/trump-biden-debt-deficits-election). Worth noting there that extending Trump's tax cuts would cost $4.6T in deficits, compared to Biden's $2.2T of non-Covid borrowing, suggesting that Biden would be reducing the national debt in a second term if his spending went the same as the first.
I think that it only looks like convicted felon Donald Trump's raking in the donations because Tim Mellon threw at least $50 million his way this last week, and one huge donation really skewed the numbers. I think?
Heather Cox Richardson referenced a Sunday NYT editorial by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld making a strong case that US corporate executives do not support Trump--that they found his first administration chaotic, and that they fear a second term would be overrun with MAGA people they couldn't work with. I found this rather astonishing, given that the GOP is always linked to business. The other thing that strikes me is that the many trials, from E. Jean Carroll to the hush money trial, appear to have emboldened critics. I think many people--even people in high stations--have been fearful. All the people associated with those trials, including the jurors, have been very brave. And I think they have made it more possible for other people to come out and criticize Trump publicly.
I especially liked this very telling observation by Sonnenfeld:
"Among Fortune 100 chief executives, who lead the top 100 public and private U.S. companies ranked by revenue, Sonnenfeld notes, not one has donated to Trump this year."
Trump demanded that Fox fire Paul Ryan. Do CEOs really want a world where Trump decides who gets fired? What if their kids say or do something a la Judge Merchan's daughter? What if they don't raise or lower prices to make Trump look good? If I were a CEO, I'd be pretty wary.
I was happy to read this in her letter as well, but it did make me wonder: what’s the difference between these fortune 100 leaders and the billionaires still bankrolling Trump? Are the likes of Mellon and Thiel and Musk, Murdoch, etc. just fascist ideologues? How about the owners of all the Trump friendly major media outlets? What gives? Is it not just about lowering taxes? (I’m not specifically asking you these questions, just posing them as thought puzzles, and to poke at the assertion that business leaders do not support Trump). It seems to me that if our business leaders don’t want Trump, they have the resources to drown his candidacy in a bathtub. Are they just hedging their bets?
I've heard a lot about Trump's fundraising haul and how this is another sign of our imminent defeat .... *eye roll* .... but correct me if I'm wrong, aren't the majority of Biden's donations still small donors? I could have sworn I saw an interview with Simon where he pointed out that small donations are far more valuable that big ones because they can be used immediately. Again, not sure if I'm misremembering this.
I remember him saying that too. Big donors money doesn't goes as far as small donations. Seem to remember him saying every dollar from a small donor is better because big donors lose value. Big donor dollars for ex. need to use $3 dollars for every $1 donated where as small donors are $1=$1. Something like that. Was surprised to learn that. Being on this Substack has been very informative about how campaigns work. Grateful.
I'm not wasting time on that but donating this month is the best time to donate which is why Simon is pushing for more donations. Gives us more to work with by hiring more staff, opening more offices etc. which we know Trump's campaign isn't doing and many in states that need his people on the ground for him are freaking out. Yeah!!!
The financials will be released after this quarter for anyone interesting in chasing down that stuff. Let's take them down!!!
What can I say, I really enjoy data. Analysis gives me a nice dopamine high that keeps me happy for hours at a time. Just never looked through FEC filings until this year. In a couple weeks when I have time, I’ll download everything and play with the numbers. Read a bunch of campaign finance laws, and literature from people who have made this their profession.
I think it has something to do with purchasing ads. A campaign can buy them cheaper than the big donor money which cost 3x as much. The difference between campaign money and PACs??? Has to do with campaign finance laws. I think. Something like that.
Direct donations to candidates are limited to a cap of $6500 (?) per person per candidate. So by definition, big money donations are not going directly to candidates' campaigns. By law, the candidates receive the cheapest rates for paid advertising. PACs have to pay a higher rate.
* I'm not absolutely sure on the $$ amount and I think that number only refers to Federal races. State candidates have different rules, IIRC.
I see NYTs and others stating that Trump is now catching up, if not outright out-raising Biden, but still haven’t seen a citation for any “facts” being spun. I am honestly asking, if someone has gotten all the FEC data and knows what they are doing, what’s the story?
I’m in the middle of packing to move to another state, so as much as I’d rather pour over downloads of fundraising, loans and expenditures for both campaigns, I can’t afford the time right now. But only looking at the FEC site just for the campaigns directly, not any PAC money, the data categorized by the FEC only goes out to the end of May. Between Jan 1 - May 31, 2024, the Biden campaign has raised in just individual contributions $89,239,587.35. Trump, in individual contributions, raised $2,328,861.77. The Biden campaign, looking at individual contributions, raised 38.32 times more than the Trump campaign from the beginning of CY 24 through May 31st.
Though Trump supposedly had 15 million cash-on-hand over Biden on May 31st, I don’t believe it. Almost all of Trumps money is coming from sources other than individual donations. Obviously, I don’t know what I’m doing, and I though I’m very tempted, now is not the time for me to learn. I know there’s more recent raw data on the FECs site. So if anyone could tell me if Trump has truly caught up to Biden in fundraising, please do so. None of the media I intake day to day has done anything but report what the Trump campaign says, not what the Trump campaign is filing with the FEC. Sure, Trump could absolutely have more money in his PACs, and I say his PACs because he seems to have a lot of influence over them, but how much of that money will legitimately be shown as originating from outside the U.S. and/or from a handful of U.S. oligarchs?
In state after state, the polling for our Senate candidates is really strong – generally much more favorable than Biden’s numbers. Simon, how realistic is this? Are that many people really likely to do split-ticket voting? Or do you think we are likely to see significant reverse-coattail voting that increases Biden’s actual numbers in November?
It seems like there is some pushback starting on this issue, with a good recent diary on DKOS too, by a Black diarist, saying they vote first and foremost on civil rights. Now, how does trump stack up on that issue? Or anyone in the GOP these days?
Loudness should not be confused with numerical support. Quite the contrary: the loudness is a compensation. It is increasingly clear that the Biden Administration is doing everything it possibly can to:
1) reduce civilian casualties and suffering, and
2) halt hostilities and return hostages
That is very difficult to achieve when neither Sinwar nor Netanyahu want the fighting to end.
Today on the Dobbs anniversary, and to remind voters that trump with the help of SCOTUS took away women’s rights to make their own decisions about their reproductive healthcare, there is a social media blast—spreading this message. If you are on social media, please consider amplifying this. These messages are already created and contain videos or memes. Just select the message you like and then pick which platform you’d like to post it on. Here’s the toolkit, https://mbl.ms/g4qzwyfPRss
Hi. I’m a supporter but the quote below - shouldn’t that difference be 11 points, not seven?
“Now, new polling from Fox News shows a seven-point swing in President Joe Biden’s favorability among independents: They prefer Biden by 9 points, a reversal from May, when they favored Trump by 2 points.”
It was a seven point swing from Trump +5 to Biden +2.
Simon, this comment pertains not just to this particular post but to the entire Hopium project.
An “Eye on the Prize” might be motivating for this November’s elections. With an effective win, what might be accomplished? Our country needs to repair the damage caused by Trump and MAGA and put safeguards in place for the future. Here is an outline for a program of reforms that came to mind. A conversation about these items would be interesting. Please comment!
Ensure voting equity:
A. Create Universal Voter Registration for all American citizens of voting age and create a Vote by Mail system for all federal elections to ELIMINATE voter suppression. Use the data the Post Office maintains to perform its job. The U.S. Postal Service currently receives data from the National Vital Statistics System regarding births, deaths, marriages, and divorces in America. This gives them the capacity to keep this National Voter Registration clean and up to date. In addition, the U.S. Postal Service should be given data from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services regarding new naturalized citizens. Mail ballots appropriate for each citizen well before election dates so they have weeks to research and consider their choices. Include two prepaid envelopes: one for the ballot, addressed to the appropriate state office for tallying votes; another addressed back to the National Voter Registration Office for a signed acknowledgement-of-receipt form. Receipt of this acknowledgement (in a timely manner so the Federal Voter Registration Office can forward a list of voters activated for the current election to each state office responsible for the state vote tally) would be required to activate the ballot. With pressure from their residents, state governments might be induced to petition the federal government to extend the system to cover their state elections, which should be accommodated.
B. Maine and Vermont currently allow incarcerated felons to vote. Federalize that standard for all states.
C. Mandate Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) in all federal elections. (With voters' familiarity with RCV in federal elections and to avoid the complexity of using two systems, states will be induced to adopt RCV in state elections and primaries as well.) This should nullify the “voters’ dilemma”: Choose your true favorite first BUT make your second choice an acceptable mainstream candidate with a plausible chance of winning to avoid “wasting” your vote. If your favorite is eliminated in the instant run-off rounds, your second choice will count. Having removed the "voters' dilemma" impediment to voting for a non-Duopoly candidate, that independent favorite's chances of winning are amplified, and the maintenance of the Duopoly created by the "voters' dilemma" in our current defective one-choice-only voting system is eliminated. Also, gathering second-choice, third-choice, etc., votes to create a winning majority will require conciliation and moderation among the candidates: firebrands lose! However, the current defective voting system gives all incumbents an advantage. An organized grass-roots movement may be necessary to induce the Democrats in Congress to pass this legislation.
D. Pass federal legislation endorsing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. If the Supreme Court rejects the NPVIC when it activates (and renders the effect of the Electoral College void), refuse to accept the ruling (see SCOTUS section below).
E. Combat gerrymandering within states by creating super-districts with multiple House Representatives.
Eliminate legislative impediments to effective government:
A. The Senate filibuster has degenerated into a standard requirement for a super-majority. This is anti-democratic. Permanently abolish the Senate filibuster!
B. The “debt limit” involves giving "permission" to pay debts previously incurred by Congress, but the 14th Amendment, Section 4 says: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law…shall not be questioned”. Abolish the debt limit process! It serves no good purpose; it is mischievous and potentially damaging to the country; and its premise is unconstitutional.
Expand federally protected civil rights:
A. Re-establish the national right of reproductive self-determination previously provided by the Roe decision.
B. Make a comprehensive search of rights issues that have ever been addressed by the Supreme Court and supplement them with federal legislation where SCOTUS may “change its mind” as it did with Roe.
Combat political corruption:
A. Legislate to cancel the abominable Citizens United decision and all other SCOTUS decisions legalizing money corruption in politics: Of the People, By the People, For the People; NOT--Of the Money, By the Money, For the Money.
B. Federally fund all federal elections. Limit personal election contributions to a modest level anyone might afford.
C. Military officers involved in acquisitions are forbidden from becoming corporate officers of the companies they did business with for five years after retirement from the military. This is called stopping the "revolving door". Stop the revolving door also for all Senators, Representatives, their top staff, high level executive officials up to the President with lobbying organizations; and all regulatory agency officials with the organizations they oversee (most especially FDA officials and pharmaceutical companies).
Combat information corruption in media:
A. Vigorously enforce anti-trust legislation. Direct the enforcing agencies (FTC and DOJ) to gradually break up all media-dominating organizations.
B. Make all media (print, broadcast, and online) legally responsible for the truthfulness of their content.
C. Legislate whatever might be required to strengthen activity combatting foreign misinformation campaigns attacking our electoral process or aggravating civil strife.
Combat Supreme Court corruption.
A. Modify the 1803 Marbury Usurpation. Legislate a mechanism that any SCOTUS decision affecting federal legislation will activate an automatic Congressional review, with simple majority votes enabling rejection of the SCOTUS decision. A retrospective process should examine for reversal past Court decisions. (In particular, this applies to the tendentious Heller decision that ignores the opening phrase of the Second Amendment: “A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,…”. The consequences of Heller exacerbate the current rampant gun violence in America.)
B. Establish a Standing Committee to oversee Supreme Court ethical behavior. Define what constitutes “good behavior” including absence of persistent political partisanship (which will require an explicit written definition to facilitate impeachment and removal).
Combat extreme concentrations of wealth:
A. Establish a very substantial inheritance tax for the highest wealth bracket. Define legitimate charitable foundations that may be set up as an alternative to tax payment.
B. Discriminate favorably for entrepreneurial wealth over what Thomas Piketty in his book, Capital, describes as rentier (i.e., stagnant) wealth. (Peter Diamandis frequently says, "If you want to be a billionaire, solve a problem for a billion people!")
C. Currently, taxes on unrealized profits are cancelled upon death of the stockholder. Eliminate this provision and mandate that that tax be paid by inheritors.
D. Corporation’s buyback of their own stock appears to have no other function than the concentration of wealth. Its prohibition should be considered.
E. Comprehensively review the federal tax code to eliminate loopholes that have no rational basis.
F. Set up a mechanism to ensure adequate funding for IRS agents to detect tax fraud.
Support the General Welfare:
A. Establish the first rudimentary form of Universal Basic Income (UBI), which will evolve and amplify as the Labor Disruption (rapidly advancing AI plus Robotics: see RethinkX) eliminates toil (work for survival) over the next two decades. (The remaining "work" will be human activities driven by self-actualization.)
B. Until robust UBI becomes ample enough to create universal abundance, fund a social welfare program to comprehensively support the poor.
C. Establish a publicly supported Universal Education (for adults as well as children) aimed at supporting self-actualization and combatting the problem of “lack of meaning” when labor for survival has been rendered obsolete.
D. Establish Universal Health Care focused on the maintenance of health (life-style direction and support, and comprehensive diagnostic testing), with “unwellness care” as backup when health maintenance fails. (The coming Labor Disruption in healthcare will remove the current bottlenecks regarding timely effective healthcare service.)
E. The four “Disruptions” (Energy, Transportation, Food, and Labor) analyzed and discussed by the non-profit foundation, RethinkX, promise the tools to comprehensively mitigate and then repair the centuries of damage to the Earth inflicted by fossil and other non-renewable fuels. (See the YouTube series, Brighter, by the research director of RethinkX, Adam Dorr.) Incumbent fossil fuel industries are doing whatever they can to slow the processes leading to their own bankruptcy, putting their financial interests ahead of the welfare of all life on Earth. Make certain through legislation that they are prevented from using political corruption to further these efforts.
F. Establish a comprehensive “ARPA” (Advanced Research Projects Agency) to ensure that beneficial technologies are identified and vigorously pursued, with either private or public funding.
All these possibilities depend upon the Democrats achieving control of the national government this November. Let the Hope motivate the Work!
Had to google what TLDR means - 😬
How about eliminating the electoral college while we’re at it
Janet, "Insure voter equity D." in effect does that:
"Pass federal legislation endorsing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. If the Supreme Court rejects the NPVIC when it activates (and renders the effect of the Electoral College void), refuse to accept the ruling (see SCOTUS section below)."
"Combat Supreme Court Corruption: A. Modify the 1803 Marbury Usurpation. Legislate a mechanism that any SCOTUS decision affecting federal legislation will activate an automatic Congressional review, with simple majority votes enabling rejection of the SCOTUS decision."
Directly eliminating the Electoral College would require a Constitutional amendment: a practical impossibility, but the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) will be an effective workaround, rendering the Electoral College void. The states who join the compact add their electoral votes together. When the sum of their electoral votes comprise a winning majority (currently 270 votes) the Pact will be activated: Each pledges to assign their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. The Electoral College still exists, but with NPVIC activated it is rendered irrelevant. States that have currently enacted NPVIC control 209 electoral votes. Another 81 electoral votes are controlled by states where joining the pact has been partially accomplished. Because the popular vote has consistently gone to the Democrats except 2004, our corrupt Supreme Court, for partisan reasons, might try to block adoption of NPVIC. The Supreme Court's power to rule on Constitutionality is not in the Constitution. It arose out of a Court case, Marbury v. Madison in 1803, the Marbury Doctrine, unilaterally asserted by the Supreme Court. That's why I call it the Marbury Usurpation, and propose that, finally, Congress pushes back.
38% of 18-29-year-olds?!? WTAF
In 2020 18-29 year olds broke 60-36 for Biden.
I am hearing more and more about how incredibly inflationary Maganomics policy is expected to be - esp hitting working and middle class consumers hard (see Ezra Klein's latest podcast and Heather Cox Richardson today - Lawrence O Donnell the other night). Trump is proposing 10% tariffs on all imports except Chinese imports which he wants to tax much higher. This will raise the price of all consumer goods and as Ezra points out domestic manufacturers set their prices based on international trade so if outside counties raise their prices - US companies will be only glad to do so as well. Trump is also talking about taking control of the Fed - probably precipitously lowering interest rates which would also cause an inflationary spiral. And if he tries to deport 11 million immigrants - this will completely increase the cost of so many of our goods and services which are provided by immigrants who keep costs down. It will be a disastrous policy! So for all the voters concerned about inflation - many of whom are Republican - they need to hear this message from all angles and loud and clear!
There was also an analysis released last week by Moody's, the credit ratings firm, that found Biden’s agenda soundly pro-growth while determining that Trump’s would cause an inflation spike and recession.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-win-mean-higher-inflation-230845244.html
Thinking about the debate this week, it seems the single objective the MAGA GOP is focused on is demonstrating Joe Biden is too mentally and physically feeble for a second term. Especially compared to their Super Zombie, Donald Trump, who has no recognizable human brain.
What’s really so wonderful about MAGA’s no-issue strategy is the proof they have nothing of substance on which to attack Biden. The MAGA are admitting, by omission, that Joe’s Biden’s 1st term has been a phenomenal success. In desperation, they’re asking the county to believe his age will prevent a repeat of his 1st term success. That leaves MAGA with the really bad bet on Trump and leaves us with really good bet on Biden. Go Joe
At least one of the moderators must have an olfactometer.
#trumpstinks
Another thing about that CBS News/YouGov poll: it showed virtually no change from the poll taken two weeks prior, right after the conviction. Trump still leads by a meaningless point (50-49), but as Simon has pointed out Biden gained 3 last time and that gain is confirmed not to have been an outlier.
I also found it interesting that in a poll where Trump got 50%, essentially that number or fewer thought that Biden's age made him out-of-touch (51%), ineffective (46%), or likely to make bad decisions (49% - 43% said the same about Trump FWIW). The only age-related concern that significantly exceeded Trump's share was the morbid one - 60% said he might not finish a second term.
For personal financial situation, good beat bad 54%-43% overall and 52%-44% among Independents. Similarly, 43% said Biden's policies hurt the economy. That was the plurality, but it trailed Trump's percentage and was exceeded by the 47% who said it had either helped or made no difference. I'm not sure Republicans are winning the economic argument with those numbers, particularly in light of Navigator's findings that Democratic lawmakers are WAY more trusted on the economy.
It also doesn't hurt that Trump got hammered by two independent economic assessments in the past few days. Moody's had Biden's economic policy winning a blowout in every single category (https://meidasnews.com/news/moodys-trumps-economic-plan-would-trigger-a-recession-by-2025). This morning, that was followed up with an independent assessment that Trump added twice as much to the national debt as Biden (https://www.axios.com/2024/06/24/trump-biden-debt-deficits-election). Worth noting there that extending Trump's tax cuts would cost $4.6T in deficits, compared to Biden's $2.2T of non-Covid borrowing, suggesting that Biden would be reducing the national debt in a second term if his spending went the same as the first.
Joe, the last CBS poll pre-conviction had Trump up 4 pts since this is a 3 pt movement towards Biden since the conviction.
I edited the end of that paragraph to try and word it better. Thank you for doing so.
Got it, “It was my understanding there would be no math.” Chevy Chase as Gerald Ford LOL
I think that it only looks like convicted felon Donald Trump's raking in the donations because Tim Mellon threw at least $50 million his way this last week, and one huge donation really skewed the numbers. I think?
Heather Cox Richardson referenced a Sunday NYT editorial by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld making a strong case that US corporate executives do not support Trump--that they found his first administration chaotic, and that they fear a second term would be overrun with MAGA people they couldn't work with. I found this rather astonishing, given that the GOP is always linked to business. The other thing that strikes me is that the many trials, from E. Jean Carroll to the hush money trial, appear to have emboldened critics. I think many people--even people in high stations--have been fearful. All the people associated with those trials, including the jurors, have been very brave. And I think they have made it more possible for other people to come out and criticize Trump publicly.
I especially liked this very telling observation by Sonnenfeld:
"Among Fortune 100 chief executives, who lead the top 100 public and private U.S. companies ranked by revenue, Sonnenfeld notes, not one has donated to Trump this year."
Trump demanded that Fox fire Paul Ryan. Do CEOs really want a world where Trump decides who gets fired? What if their kids say or do something a la Judge Merchan's daughter? What if they don't raise or lower prices to make Trump look good? If I were a CEO, I'd be pretty wary.
I was happy to read this in her letter as well, but it did make me wonder: what’s the difference between these fortune 100 leaders and the billionaires still bankrolling Trump? Are the likes of Mellon and Thiel and Musk, Murdoch, etc. just fascist ideologues? How about the owners of all the Trump friendly major media outlets? What gives? Is it not just about lowering taxes? (I’m not specifically asking you these questions, just posing them as thought puzzles, and to poke at the assertion that business leaders do not support Trump). It seems to me that if our business leaders don’t want Trump, they have the resources to drown his candidacy in a bathtub. Are they just hedging their bets?
I've heard a lot about Trump's fundraising haul and how this is another sign of our imminent defeat .... *eye roll* .... but correct me if I'm wrong, aren't the majority of Biden's donations still small donors? I could have sworn I saw an interview with Simon where he pointed out that small donations are far more valuable that big ones because they can be used immediately. Again, not sure if I'm misremembering this.
I remember him saying that too. Big donors money doesn't goes as far as small donations. Seem to remember him saying every dollar from a small donor is better because big donors lose value. Big donor dollars for ex. need to use $3 dollars for every $1 donated where as small donors are $1=$1. Something like that. Was surprised to learn that. Being on this Substack has been very informative about how campaigns work. Grateful.
I'd love to learn more about the breakdown in Trump's haul. Would give us an idea who has the true advantage here
I'm not wasting time on that but donating this month is the best time to donate which is why Simon is pushing for more donations. Gives us more to work with by hiring more staff, opening more offices etc. which we know Trump's campaign isn't doing and many in states that need his people on the ground for him are freaking out. Yeah!!!
The financials will be released after this quarter for anyone interesting in chasing down that stuff. Let's take them down!!!
What can I say, I really enjoy data. Analysis gives me a nice dopamine high that keeps me happy for hours at a time. Just never looked through FEC filings until this year. In a couple weeks when I have time, I’ll download everything and play with the numbers. Read a bunch of campaign finance laws, and literature from people who have made this their profession.
Also, don't forget the grift that goes on their side, plus inflated salaries and the crazy $100 Million in legal fees. Serious money drain.
I think it has something to do with purchasing ads. A campaign can buy them cheaper than the big donor money which cost 3x as much. The difference between campaign money and PACs??? Has to do with campaign finance laws. I think. Something like that.
Direct donations to candidates are limited to a cap of $6500 (?) per person per candidate. So by definition, big money donations are not going directly to candidates' campaigns. By law, the candidates receive the cheapest rates for paid advertising. PACs have to pay a higher rate.
* I'm not absolutely sure on the $$ amount and I think that number only refers to Federal races. State candidates have different rules, IIRC.
Ah - thank you!
I see NYTs and others stating that Trump is now catching up, if not outright out-raising Biden, but still haven’t seen a citation for any “facts” being spun. I am honestly asking, if someone has gotten all the FEC data and knows what they are doing, what’s the story?
I’m in the middle of packing to move to another state, so as much as I’d rather pour over downloads of fundraising, loans and expenditures for both campaigns, I can’t afford the time right now. But only looking at the FEC site just for the campaigns directly, not any PAC money, the data categorized by the FEC only goes out to the end of May. Between Jan 1 - May 31, 2024, the Biden campaign has raised in just individual contributions $89,239,587.35. Trump, in individual contributions, raised $2,328,861.77. The Biden campaign, looking at individual contributions, raised 38.32 times more than the Trump campaign from the beginning of CY 24 through May 31st.
Though Trump supposedly had 15 million cash-on-hand over Biden on May 31st, I don’t believe it. Almost all of Trumps money is coming from sources other than individual donations. Obviously, I don’t know what I’m doing, and I though I’m very tempted, now is not the time for me to learn. I know there’s more recent raw data on the FECs site. So if anyone could tell me if Trump has truly caught up to Biden in fundraising, please do so. None of the media I intake day to day has done anything but report what the Trump campaign says, not what the Trump campaign is filing with the FEC. Sure, Trump could absolutely have more money in his PACs, and I say his PACs because he seems to have a lot of influence over them, but how much of that money will legitimately be shown as originating from outside the U.S. and/or from a handful of U.S. oligarchs?
I think you have to wait until after the June 30 FEC deadline to get legit vetted numbers through 2Q.
Wasn’t able to view behind the paywall but WSJ had an article on Friday about Biden playing offense in NC:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/joe-biden-campaign-north-carolina-2024-election-4fe5a736
Alsobrooks up 11 in new MD poll - https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/alsobrooks-leads-hogan-by-11/
In state after state, the polling for our Senate candidates is really strong – generally much more favorable than Biden’s numbers. Simon, how realistic is this? Are that many people really likely to do split-ticket voting? Or do you think we are likely to see significant reverse-coattail voting that increases Biden’s actual numbers in November?
Wanted to make sure you saw this, Simon. More good news and you and Hopium are mentioned
Is there a link Julie?
https://newrepublic.com/article/182841/biden-black-hispanic-voters-trump-2024?
Glad you saw my post!
It seems like there is some pushback starting on this issue, with a good recent diary on DKOS too, by a Black diarist, saying they vote first and foremost on civil rights. Now, how does trump stack up on that issue? Or anyone in the GOP these days?