Look at it this way: If the Selzer poll is correct AND if we can extrapolate from that nationally, we will be +11 nationally over 2020. That puts us at +15 (57-42) in the popular vote, and it would give us, in addition to the seven battleground states and the blue dot, FL, TX, IA, OH and TX. That would add up to 412 electoral votes for us and 127 for It, whom I flatter with the upper-case 'I.' Not saying this will happen! But am saying it's within the realm of possibility.
I think 412 is a best case scenario, I think 355 is a very good scenario (all of the above except OH and TX), I think 319-324 is a very realistic scenario (all the swing states, and potentially FL and IA), and 287 would be the floor (she still wins, but doesn't get all the swing states and no surprise flips).
Yeah, I think 287-300 (the Blue Wall+Blue Dot, Nevada, and maybe NC and/or GA). I don't see a high chance of much beyond that. Possible, but not probable. But I'll be ecstatic-- I mean, over the moon happy, with whiskey and champagne flowing-- with anything 270+ :-)
Being part of this community has made this election season more than just tolerable, it made it joyful and exciting. Thank you, Simon, for creating Hopium Chronicles and sharing your years of wisdom with all of us, and for giving us high-impact ways to work hard and help win this thing!
I think it's safe to say Simon's Hopium Chronicles has been a huge success, and that's not just because of Simon, who we are all super grateful to, but because of all of us!!! Thank you everyone for doing your part. Let's win this thing!
I discovered Simon a few months ago while watching MSNBC. I found myself wanting to hear more from him, so I googled him and ended up subscribing to HC. Simon and this community have been my daily therapy ever since. I have never been more engaged in an election - donated regularly as per the daily ask, phone-banked, engaged an Uber driver, my plumber, friends, family, whoever would listen, and used Zelf to reach thousands of young folk. Still Zelfing today!
I am with you 100%. Saw Simon on The Last Word and decided I had to check out what Hopium was about. I subscribed and have been informing friends and relatives ever since. It is absolutely daily therapy check in. If Simon's letter doesn't come to my email until late I start to get jitters. JK. But it is also hearing from all of you that has helped me get through this very disturbing period in our history. Thank you.
Was it on Feb 13 after Tom Suozzi won NY-3 by 8 points? That was when I heard of Simon Rosenberg, and the first time I felt genuine hope this year. I think it is worth quoting even if it is a bit long and all stuff he has repeated. But I hadn’t heard it before. Thank you Simon!
“We’re just hungrier than they are. We’re fighting harder than they are. We made 2 million calls. We had hundreds of thousands of door knocks, hundreds of thousands of texts, hundreds of thousands of postcards, tens of thousands of people from all over the country participated and contributed to this victory.
"Because what’s happening in the Democratic Party is we’re building the biggest political machine we’ve ever had. ‘Cause there are millions of people who are getting up every day and deciding they’re just not going to let their democracy slip away on their watch. And they’re going to work, they’re rolling up their sleeves, doing the postcards, making the calls, doing the texts, and we’re kicking their ass all over the country, again and again and again.
"And it’s because of the people of our party who’ve decided that they’re going to make sure that their democracy and freedoms don’t slip away. So big hats off to all of them tonight, because this was their win, too, in addition to Tom and the House Democrats.”
Such good news! I am SO excited. Thank you Simon. Here's a note I'm sending to all my substack reading friends: WHAHOOO: Michael Moore who was the ONLY one who predicted Trump's win in 2016 has declared that " Trump is Toast" this time around. He keeps his ear to the ground of the average American. Today he posted a "Dear John" letter to Donald. It's classic Michael Moore but it's an entertaining summary of many of the reasons why we are in such good shape. Find it on his Substack and enjoy. I recommend for an over coffee uplift. Meanwhile "Keep Kamala and Carry-on-ala!"!!! I'm working at the polls today.
This was a great read, thanks for mentioning it! I laughed out loud at this paragraph:
"And now you’ve spent the past four years complaining about how the media doesn’t like you, how the “elite” don’t like you, how the Gays and the Lesbians and the Blacks and Latinos and the Women and the Muslims and the Immigrant Families and Taylor Swift and All Her Swifties and the Kids on College Campuses and all the Autoworkers and all the Union Members and the Teachers and the College Educated White Guys and Eminem and Beyonce and Julia Roberts and Lebron James and Jon Bon Jovi and Stevie Nicks and Neil Young and, Jesus Christ Donald, you even say that all the Military Generals don’t like you and all your former Chiefs of Staff don’t like you and all your former Secretaries of Defense don’t like you and your Secretaries of State and your Secretaries of the Deep State and all the people in the Deep State (which is, like, a lot of people, dude!) and how even a war criminal like Dick Cheney (who was already included in the previous group) doesn’t like you and how none of them like you and neither does your Vice President who you tried to have killed."
Taking a quick bite for lunch, guys this Harris operation field office is a MACHINE. The level of organization is incredible. Methodical would be an understatement. Ok lunch is done. Back to driving folks to the polls
Thanks for your leadership in this, Simon. You got me through some really hard times as I was struggling with what to think about the country and the state of the race, and it really does feel like we're almost there.
It’s been a life saver as a Texan in a Trump loving family and neighborhood to have this community, Jessica Craven, Joyce Vance and others to turn to and find community. Thank you doesn’t seem to be enough but it’s what I’ve got. I’ve also appreciated the help in knowing where best to put my money. My only diversion, that I think you will understand, is my solid contributions to Colin Allred!!
I'm in Alabama (heart of Trumpistan), so I hear you. I was cash poor this cycle but time rich so I tried to phone bank every Thursday for the congressional races Simon had targeted. Very fulfilling and something I hope to repeat in the years I have left.
I just discovered a site via the podcast This American Life that I hope to use on a few Trump supporting family members: It's called Tangle. https://www.readtangle.com/
This is awesome!
Go Mecklenburg, you ROCK!!🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Look at it this way: If the Selzer poll is correct AND if we can extrapolate from that nationally, we will be +11 nationally over 2020. That puts us at +15 (57-42) in the popular vote, and it would give us, in addition to the seven battleground states and the blue dot, FL, TX, IA, OH and TX. That would add up to 412 electoral votes for us and 127 for It, whom I flatter with the upper-case 'I.' Not saying this will happen! But am saying it's within the realm of possibility.
From your lips ....
I think 412 is a best case scenario, I think 355 is a very good scenario (all of the above except OH and TX), I think 319-324 is a very realistic scenario (all the swing states, and potentially FL and IA), and 287 would be the floor (she still wins, but doesn't get all the swing states and no surprise flips).
Yeah, I think 287-300 (the Blue Wall+Blue Dot, Nevada, and maybe NC and/or GA). I don't see a high chance of much beyond that. Possible, but not probable. But I'll be ecstatic-- I mean, over the moon happy, with whiskey and champagne flowing-- with anything 270+ :-)
On our way to polls watch in Las Vegas!!! LFG!!!
You go, Kellidee!!!
Bring Dems home 🩵
Being part of this community has made this election season more than just tolerable, it made it joyful and exciting. Thank you, Simon, for creating Hopium Chronicles and sharing your years of wisdom with all of us, and for giving us high-impact ways to work hard and help win this thing!
I think it's safe to say Simon's Hopium Chronicles has been a huge success, and that's not just because of Simon, who we are all super grateful to, but because of all of us!!! Thank you everyone for doing your part. Let's win this thing!
Yes love reading all the amazing things this group has done!!
I second that. And so grateful to be a subscriber and among you all— doing the work and feeling the joy!
Thanks Simon and all!!! 💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸
WORD.
I discovered Simon a few months ago while watching MSNBC. I found myself wanting to hear more from him, so I googled him and ended up subscribing to HC. Simon and this community have been my daily therapy ever since. I have never been more engaged in an election - donated regularly as per the daily ask, phone-banked, engaged an Uber driver, my plumber, friends, family, whoever would listen, and used Zelf to reach thousands of young folk. Still Zelfing today!
I am with you 100%. Saw Simon on The Last Word and decided I had to check out what Hopium was about. I subscribed and have been informing friends and relatives ever since. It is absolutely daily therapy check in. If Simon's letter doesn't come to my email until late I start to get jitters. JK. But it is also hearing from all of you that has helped me get through this very disturbing period in our history. Thank you.
I absolutely adore Lawrence O' Donnell! His segment last night nearly moved me to tears.
I will have to check it out on YouTube. I had my alarm set for 4:30 am today so I was in bed long before he came on!!
Was it on Feb 13 after Tom Suozzi won NY-3 by 8 points? That was when I heard of Simon Rosenberg, and the first time I felt genuine hope this year. I think it is worth quoting even if it is a bit long and all stuff he has repeated. But I hadn’t heard it before. Thank you Simon!
“We’re just hungrier than they are. We’re fighting harder than they are. We made 2 million calls. We had hundreds of thousands of door knocks, hundreds of thousands of texts, hundreds of thousands of postcards, tens of thousands of people from all over the country participated and contributed to this victory.
"Because what’s happening in the Democratic Party is we’re building the biggest political machine we’ve ever had. ‘Cause there are millions of people who are getting up every day and deciding they’re just not going to let their democracy slip away on their watch. And they’re going to work, they’re rolling up their sleeves, doing the postcards, making the calls, doing the texts, and we’re kicking their ass all over the country, again and again and again.
"And it’s because of the people of our party who’ve decided that they’re going to make sure that their democracy and freedoms don’t slip away. So big hats off to all of them tonight, because this was their win, too, in addition to Tom and the House Democrats.”
https://youtu.be/0GqqxkQH1Fs?t=738
Speaking of which the Laura Gillen (NY-04) House race has been looking good!
Haha .. I got pilled back in June!
Thanks for your leadership. Working a “hold the line” shift as the polls close here in Wisconsin.
Such good news! I am SO excited. Thank you Simon. Here's a note I'm sending to all my substack reading friends: WHAHOOO: Michael Moore who was the ONLY one who predicted Trump's win in 2016 has declared that " Trump is Toast" this time around. He keeps his ear to the ground of the average American. Today he posted a "Dear John" letter to Donald. It's classic Michael Moore but it's an entertaining summary of many of the reasons why we are in such good shape. Find it on his Substack and enjoy. I recommend for an over coffee uplift. Meanwhile "Keep Kamala and Carry-on-ala!"!!! I'm working at the polls today.
Moore’s Dear John is paywall free and totally uplifting and a good guffaw to start your victorious day!
This was a great read, thanks for mentioning it! I laughed out loud at this paragraph:
"And now you’ve spent the past four years complaining about how the media doesn’t like you, how the “elite” don’t like you, how the Gays and the Lesbians and the Blacks and Latinos and the Women and the Muslims and the Immigrant Families and Taylor Swift and All Her Swifties and the Kids on College Campuses and all the Autoworkers and all the Union Members and the Teachers and the College Educated White Guys and Eminem and Beyonce and Julia Roberts and Lebron James and Jon Bon Jovi and Stevie Nicks and Neil Young and, Jesus Christ Donald, you even say that all the Military Generals don’t like you and all your former Chiefs of Staff don’t like you and all your former Secretaries of Defense don’t like you and your Secretaries of State and your Secretaries of the Deep State and all the people in the Deep State (which is, like, a lot of people, dude!) and how even a war criminal like Dick Cheney (who was already included in the previous group) doesn’t like you and how none of them like you and neither does your Vice President who you tried to have killed."
Listened to Hacks On Tap last night-they’ve been doom and gloom till last night! All 3 hacks predict Harris win!!
I am so over those guys but nice to hear.
Opened the Gilbert AZ canvass office before sunrise this morning! LFG!!!!
Thanks, Carrie 🩵
We’ve got this ! 💙💫🌟
Looking ahead…opportunities available starting tomorrow(Weds).
Ballot Cure with the ACLU Florida📲
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/728894/
I signed up, thanks!
Oooo, thank you for posting because these hours work better for me than the ones I found! There are both in person and online ballet cure options within this search: https://www.mobilize.us/?q=Ballot%20Curing&show_all_events=true&tag_ids=270
Morning from Bucks county Pennsylvania!!!! Am driving people to the polls, a lot of enthusiasm here! Let’s do this!!!!!!!!
That's how we're going to win!
Taking a quick bite for lunch, guys this Harris operation field office is a MACHINE. The level of organization is incredible. Methodical would be an understatement. Ok lunch is done. Back to driving folks to the polls
Bucks is important!
I am tired, but a good tired. Just a couple more hours
Thank you !
These four months have been the longest year of my life. Now let's drive the stake through the monster's heart. LFG!
“Finish him!”, as Mortal Kombat used to say. Let’s go win a “Flawless Victory!”
Happy Election Day! And coincidentally, in our house it happens to be trash day!!
👏👏💙🩵
Beautiful. It is at our house too. The can waits on the curb for the garbage truck.
I have wed am pickup but sometimes they come at 7 am and sometimes at 4 pm, so I take the trash out Tuesday night. How appropriate!
Thanks for your leadership in this, Simon. You got me through some really hard times as I was struggling with what to think about the country and the state of the race, and it really does feel like we're almost there.
Heading to WI from Chicago for last minute get out the vote. Simon, you are the best!
Go SUSAN!! from Jeanette ❤️
It’s been a life saver as a Texan in a Trump loving family and neighborhood to have this community, Jessica Craven, Joyce Vance and others to turn to and find community. Thank you doesn’t seem to be enough but it’s what I’ve got. I’ve also appreciated the help in knowing where best to put my money. My only diversion, that I think you will understand, is my solid contributions to Colin Allred!!
I'm in Alabama (heart of Trumpistan), so I hear you. I was cash poor this cycle but time rich so I tried to phone bank every Thursday for the congressional races Simon had targeted. Very fulfilling and something I hope to repeat in the years I have left.
Thx you Charles!
Thank you!!
I just discovered a site via the podcast This American Life that I hope to use on a few Trump supporting family members: It's called Tangle. https://www.readtangle.com/
It's worth a look.
It’s good.
I feel for you in Texas. My sis in law and nephews live there. Not sure they vote. But they are ignorant to the urgency.