Epstein Is A Huge Problem For Trump. So Are His Tariffs, And The Upcoming Budget Fight
Global Tariff Rates Are Set To Double And Triple This Friday
Morning all. We head into August with three things being true:
1 - Trump Is Diminished, His Powers Are Ebbing - His poll numbers continue to drop; his agenda is wildly unpopular; the Epstein affair is degrading his already degraded enterprise; Elon has done a lot of damage to him; House Rs rebelled this week and voted to release the Epstein files; he has not negotiated a single trade agreement in over 100 days, and foreign governments are just not bending the knee; the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine grind on, defying that his promises that his STRENGTH would bring PEACE; Democrats continue to overperform in elections, lead in the generic ballot and enthusiasm, and our candidates in NJ and VA are kicking ass; he has no obvious path to reverse his decline as inflation is rising (yes, prices are not bending the knee) and his agenda of sabotage, plunder and betrayal brings further harm - not improvement - to the country. His agenda - his awful, terrible agenda - and the harms it brings will not be able to be spun, TikToked or wished away, and will continue to push him and his party further and further away from the American people.
2 - We Are Descending Further Into Authoritarianism, And Trump Continues To Do Enormous Harm To The Country - It’s pretty clear that in his desperation and decline Trump is doing whatever it takes to save his ass, and the corrupt Supreme Court and quisling Congress are doing everything they can to help him. As I discussed with Katie Phang yesterday Trump’s weaponizing of the Department of Justice and FBI took a very dark and dangerous turn this week; their lawless attempt to forge ideological control over universities and the media grew far more ambitious and malevolent; his attempt to get Fed Chair Powell to yield to his STRENGTH continued unabated; the horrors of ICE keep escalating; Kennedy’s war on our public health has become an extraordinary threat to the country; he keeps throwing Putin bones; he appeared to have endorsed full on genocide in GAZA yesterday.
Yes as he declines and struggles he is becoming ever more unhinged, untethered, illiberal, and dangerous.
3 - His Tariffs and The Coming Budget Debate Are Big, Big Problems For Him - As I spelled in my new video and analysis this week as bad as things are for Trump they are likely to get much worse. He has promised to double or triple his current 10% global tariff this Friday. And even if chickens out (again), and only raises it to 15% as he is hinting, this will be a 50% (!!!!!) increase in a tariff rate that is already raising prices here, slowing the global and US economies, and continuing to shift the tax burden from the wealthy to the working and middle classes.
As I discussed with economist Rob Shapiro this week, that Trump is considering raising his tariffs rather than ending them altogether given the harms they’ve brought to the country and his own political standing, is, in my view, another sign of his madness, desperation and decline. Look at the data here. 33% of voters approve of his handling of inflation and prices, the most important issue for voters today:
Here’s CNN’s Harry Enten expressing astonishment on Trump’s terrible, terrible numbers on his handling of inflation:
To understand what an incredible, desperate fiasco Trump’s impulsive decision to raise the tariffs two weeks has become we’ve now learned that there isn’t actually a trade “deal” with Japan, and Japan has publicly challenged Trump’s interpretation of what they agreed to. Here’s the FT yesterday (paywall, sorry):
Excerpts from the article:
Japanese officials said there was no written agreement with Washington — and no legally binding one would be drawn up — after Trump administration officials claimed Tokyo would back investments in the US from which American taxpayers would reap nine-tenths of the profits.
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But a slideshow issued by Japan’s Cabinet Office on Friday appeared to contradict Lutnick by saying the ratio of profit distribution would be “based on the degree of contribution and risk taken by each party”. Officials familiar with the US-Japan talks said the deal was pulled together in a slapdash manner during a 70-minute meeting between Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and Trump on Tuesday.………
“There is nothing inspiring about the deal,” said Mireya Solís, senior fellow at Brookings Institution. “Both sides made promises that we can’t be sure will be kept . . . there are no guarantees on what the actual level of investments from Japan will be.”
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One US official said details of the scheme were still being worked out.
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Political analysts said that on balance Japan appeared to have walked away with a good deal at little cost, setting an example that could become a model for other large exporters such as Germany and South Korea.
Holy Trumpian shitshow Batman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This Friday the US global tariff rate is scheduled to rise to at least 20% and in some case far higher. They have not been able to negotiate a single deal to forestall this incredible disaster. Best case Trump TACOs again and sets the rate at 15%. This will still be an incredible disaster for the global economy, our country and the American people. We need to very vocal this week that we oppose the tariffs altogether. They are illegal, unconstitutional and the greatest abuse of Presidential power in our history. They are doing enormous damage to the country and we must do everything we can to repeal them altogether and stop this batshit crazy and wildly destructive Trumpian power grab.
OK, Simon, the tariffs are bad. Doesn’t the US government run out of money in five weeks and doesn’t Trump somehow now have to pass a fiscal year 2026 budget that forces Republicans to vote on every aspect of Trump’s incredibly unpopular agenda, from the tariffs to exploding deficits, to huge tax cuts for the wealthy, to the gutting of our health care system, to cuts to NIH, to the roiding up of ICE? Yep, we are all going to spending perhaps the next five months - five months - forcing the Republicans to defend their ruinous and unpopular agenda as they try to get a budget through a Congress that just openly rebelled against him:
So, yes my friends, Trump is scared. He is failing. He is desperate. He is wildly unpopular, his agenda even more so. He is growing more unhinged, untethered and authoritarian. And yes, my friends, as bad as it is for Trump now it is likely to get worse. And he will get worse, more wild, more unhinged. So what do we do?
First, we have to realize, as the old saying goes, the only way out is through. And next, we have to keep talking forthrightly about what is happening to the American people, keep working to mitigate the damage he is doing and keep fighting with everything we got to win back power.
Now….
Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here at Hopium we like to do. Here we are proud, plucky, patriots but we are also put your head down, grind it out, get shit done doers. Trump and Republicans have stumbled, and given us a big opportunity now to tell our story and win back power. While are there so many things people can do to advance our cause I am partial to two sets of activities - supporting our candidates and party committees, and calling/contacting elected officials every day. So what follows is our recommendations to make sure your time and money are being put to the highest and best use in this time of national emergency……
Support Hopium’s Priority Candidates And Party Committees - Just set new fundraising goals for Labor Day, now remarkably six weeks away. Election Day is less than four months away and early voting starts in Virginia starts in less than two months - September 19th! Donate, volunteer, learn more about our candidates and opportunities here….
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $200,000 goal, $43k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Rep. Sherrill
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $156k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $200,000 goal, $40k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $172k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer, Watch My Interviews With Our Great Members
The New DNC - $200,000 goal $122,000 raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Ken Martin and Jane Kleeb
Our Recommended Actions - Here are other actions you can take outside of our direct electoral work:
1 - Call your Senators and Rep To Demand They Revoke Trump’s Terrible Tariffs - Congress simply must take back its tariff authority that Trump has illegally and unconstitutional seized and dangerously abused; and at the very least they must stop what will be Trump’s ruinous new tariff increases slated to start on August 1st. Trump’s economic plan has failed, and we need to find a better way forward.
2 - Fight Trump’s Inhumane Immigration Escalation And His Broader Assault On Our Liberties - We must do more here, and I will be working to put together a strategy for us in the coming weeks. In the meantime watch my recent discussions with David Leopold Joe Garcia, Leon Krauze and Senator Chris Van Hollen for more.
3 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 50 resolutions projects in 20 states. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Our newly updated Resolutions page includes a new chat for folks to report in on their progress or seek counsel from those interested in launching a resolutions project in their community. This is one way to fight back against Trump’s unprecedented abandonment of our Constitutional order.
4 -Volunteer To Help Your State and/or Local Democratic Parties Stand Up Voter Registration Efforts And Support “Organizing Summer” - In the presentation he made to our community recently Tom Bonier made a persuasive case that Democrats must once again make partisan voter registration a national priority. State and local Democratic Parties are in the planning stages to take this on. Members of our community should consider contacting their state and local parties and offer to help stand up these vital efforts in the coming months.
The DNC, the DSCC, the DCCC, the DGA and the ASDC have announced a major “Organizing Summer” project. Learn more about it here. For more on what the DNC and state and local parties are intending to do this election cycle see my recent interviews with DNC Chair Ken Martin and ASDC President Jane Kleeb.
5 - Support Brave US Government Scientists Fighting To Protect Our Global Scientific Leadership - Staff at 3 of the most important US science agencies - NIH, EPA and NASA - have now courageously filed letters of discontent against their leadership. Learn more and sign your name to support these remarkable initiatives, and do you part to fight to main America’s global scientific leadership!
For more watch my interviews with Colette Delawalla, Executive Director of the advocacy organization Stand Up For Science; and Dr. Michael Mann, a world leading climate scientist, and author of the forthcoming book, Science Under Siege.
6 - Review and Comment On Hopium’s Working Agenda - Many of you have noted that we must do more than oppose, we must also propose and make clear to the American people what they will get if they put us back in power. To that end, with input from many of you, I’ve drafted an initial 2026 Agenda. Check it out here, offer comments and improvements, take it into your communities and create discussions and debates about who we are, and what story we want to tell to our voters this fall and next year.
7 - Grow Hopium And This Wonderful Community Of Proud, Plucky, Patriots - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 152,000 we are now to 175,000 by Labor Day. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. If each current paid subscriber brings in just one new subscriber this summer we will hit our goal.
To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day. Use that link to buy gift or group subscriptions, and join our new referral rewards program too.
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you, and a fight it truly is - Simon
I have started going to a protest at a flyover bridge which occurs every Tuesday in Austin TX. We overlook a well-used freeway holding US flags and signs like Honk for Democracy. The cars below and those coming over the bridge have shown a lot of support. This week the biggest sign was in support of those affected by the floods in the Hill Country and against the unusual mid-decade redistricting that Trump has asked the Legislature to do to try to add more Republican districts through gerrymandering. It shows how scared he is. Doing this every week with like-minded people is very uplifting. We were covered by a local tv news station and a group member gave a good explanation of why we oppose this administration that wants to take us backwards and how we want to be a progressive community that cares for each other. It was on the evening news.
Thursday, I went to a rally at the Capitol to protest the attempted redistricting. There were at least 300 people there. The newspaper reported 100.
Simon, the news about Trump's polls is good news!
Also I heard Roy Cooper is going to run for the Senate in North Carolina, which should give us a shot at picking up that Senate seat. Thank you, Trump, for running Tillis out of the race! Good job.
I watched an encouraging talk by Newsome and some Texas Dems yesterday. One thing I like about Newsome is that he can throw a punch.
I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters today.