I have not had a TV in a decade. I watch a few clips of CNN on YouTube from time to time and continue to think that I made the right move. CNN made breathless claims about the recent criminal trial of DJT in NYC. I followed the case closely and read a lot of the transcripts. In no way did CNN's reporting match what I was reading. They dramatically announced that the defense team had destroyed the prosecution at one point, that there would be a hung jury, or that the charges were novel. Lies. Lies. Lies. It was obvious to me that the prosecution made a very thorough presentation of evidence of falsified business records as part of a conspiracy to aid DJT's campaign. Jury agreed on all 34 counts in 11 hours. This should have surprised exactly zero people who have ever sat on juries.
For everyone here wanting a peek into the mind of the "low-info" youth voter, I just got to have a rare politics talk with my younger brother, and the following is an as-close-to-verbatim-as-my-short-term-memory-will-allow transcription of his thoughts. He is 24, a recent college grad working at Walmart. He was an unenthusiastic Biden vote in '20, but blue again in '22. His friend group is progressive/leftist and he gets most of his news from them or social media.
On the anti-Israel protests: "I feel like they're alienating people. I am getting so f---ing tired of hearing about this one tiny strip of land. There have been other wars, but I guess those weren't a hot topic. We have one of those encampments on the quad. Now no one can use that park, and the grass is absolutely ruined. School has put up a barrier asking them to stay away from those big ole trees around the area we all love. I literally care more about that by now. I swear if they even touch one of those trees with those tents I'm gonna go down there and go ballistic on them all myself. Look, the sh-t I've seen and heard about is horrifying, but I feel like no one wants to think about how much worse it could be? Israel is jacked to the teeth because they always have had to be. They're still behaving like monsters, but... Frankly, 40k or whatever doesn't seem like that many people for a war. My problem is that the alive people's quality of life is absolute dogsh-t, and there are so many kids. I just want peace, but you're not gonna get that by talking like an idiot and ruining my commute."
On the border crisis: "Wait, what? Is that what they're actually saying? Since when? You're supposed to feel bad for those people! Look at where they're coming from! How would they know exactly what the process is? Aren't we supposed to be welcoming? RACIST. We wouldn't care if they were coming from Canada."
On crime: "I haven't noticed anything. I mean, people are always trying to steal sh-t from Walmart, but that's Walmart. Like they would feel it. OMG, wait a sec!" [Pulls out his phone, scrolls for a minute, shows me a video of a woman saying "All my man did was rob the gas station, y'all acting like he tried to rob Walmart or something!" She proceeds to sing "Release my n----!" to the tune of Feliz Navidad. He laughs.]
On inflation: "You know who is always complaining about prices in my checkout line? Old people. Almost every time it's an old person. Like, we're all just trying to get by. I'm eating ramen every day so I can go to that concert because my rent just went up $60, but I'm not complaining. I can't remember what it was when it was what the price was "supposed to be." Geez. Hey, y'know what? I've got the free Tinder, and I just set my age limit up. Time to get me a sugar momma!"
On energy policy: "I actually wouldn't care if the government doubled the gas price just to make people buy hybrid. Like, it would suck for me right now but I would get it. But it's all the companies just being greedy. We got peeps out here acting like Shell is worth paying a dollar more for like it's special. I can't wait until the Saudis and all those other guys over there are done."
On 45's conviction: "We talkin' 'bout our main opp right now. Bro more than deserved it."
On who he is voting for: "Joe has done some good stuff. I understand why people would prefer someone else, but I'll never understand why anyone would prefer the alternative. Total barf."
I was actually thinking recently about how much I knew about politics in my early 20’s (during Watergate) and it was very, very little. Your brother is far more informed than I was. Thanks so much for reporting on your conversation with him. Very interesting, and hopeful!
Please join me this Thursday 4 pm PDT/7 pm EDT in a webinar featuring Galvanize Action, the only national organization developing messages proven to move moderate white women in swing states towards progress. https://www.galvanizeaction.org/ Galvanize Action launched six years ago in response to the rising white nationalism and authoritarianism that threatens to destroy our democracy. They use cutting-edge audience research and modeling to inform programming that moves moderate women to defend our democracy and support progress. Galvanize Action will be featured by Focus for Democracy (https://www.focus4democracy.org/), which rigorously evaluates and selects a few groups they determine are the best investment for democracy. If you value rigorous research and evaluation, please register by clicking on this link. bit.ly/F4D20June
I've been thinking about the advantage President Biden has with likely voters and the way that will help his re-election in ways outside of the voting booth. It was striking - and heartening - to me to see how much activism Democrats generated around Tom Suozzi's win in the recent special election on Long Island. That kind of activism requires dedicated citizens stepping up to do the work required to win elections.
Joe Biden already has those people at his back - they are to folks who know already, five months before the election, that they will be voting Blue. National media is not only ignoring the advantage Biden has in the polls with likely voters, but also the work many of them will do canvassing, texting, calling, donating between now and November. We've got this folks - there are more of us than them and we are here ready to do the work!
I live in AZCD06 and am excited and grateful for the spotlight and support from Hopium. Flipping this district was our motivation to create the grassroots “Worry Less Postcard Project.” More that 100 volunteers are adding personal notes to 40,000 postcards with reproductive rights messages asking voters to support Kirsten Engle, Arizona for Abortion Access, Ruben Gallego and Joe Biden…. postcards will be mailed Sept 30 just before voters receive their mail-in ballots.
Love the “ worry less” postcard project. Every time I get worried I crank out a few more postcards… Ohio for absentee voting and Wisconsin for voting … period! I lived most of my 65+ years in Wisconsin, born in Milwaukee — retired to Portland ( OR) since the only grandchild is here.
I follow the owner of Minocqua Brewing in Wisconsin because he is such an inspiration!The local,far-right good ole boys keep trying to knock him down out but he keeps fighting back.
Locals can purchase NOPE NOT IN WISCONSIN! signs. Also ,of course, Biden Beer 🍺.
Kathy, that’s WONDERFUL! I found out just today Minocqua Brewing won their latest round in the court and the judge gave his adversaries a tongue lashing! It won’t stop here unfortunately but he’s wining his battle so far🤞🏻
Love hearing from another supporter! He’s a Dem trying to survive in a bright red district. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Harry Enten, a stats guy on cnn is causing a stir on the internet. he used to work for 538 and now works for the daily caller created by tucker carlson. he says that 30% of black voters will vote for trump, something no republican has ever had. I find that hard to swallow. Trump has never done anything for the black voter to make their life better.
when it comes to the border wall, when trump was in the whitehouse, he took kids away from their parents and locked them in cages. Now he plans to deport everyone. Biden has more empathy and wants to protect some of them
when it comes to palestine, trump would order bebe to finish off palestine and annex their territory. Biden continues to try for a ceasefire.
when it comes to inflation,people are complaining about biden, but trumps tax and tariff plan would blow a hole thru the roof with inflation and most families would be paying 3,000 to 5,000 a year in taxes every year (like what happened to us in tax years 2021 and 2022) because trump would cut taxes for the rich making life unaffordable for the rest of us
this is the first year since tax year 2020 that my wife and I received a large refund. its coming in late june or july
I don't trust polls, especially after the 2016 election. Too many of them have been way off and too far to right of what's really happening, that's why I'm here. Simon seems to have the geeky stats view of reality that I appreciate - facts and truth, not spin and propaganda. Remember, BILLIONS of ad dollars are up for bids in this election cycle and all of the greedy folks with their hands out will do or say anything for the filthy lucre and to try to demoralize us.
Stick with Jon Ralston on NV. I'd like to know why these people think so many AA's are supporting trump. I don't hear any convincing arguments, just panic and fear mongering. And no data either.
Harry should look at things other than really bad crosstabs - like polls of just Afro-Americans or actual reality. Again it’s just Enten trying to get engagement. Check out Status Kuo on substack, his post yesterday really dismantled the type of bs Enten is shoveling.
There's a decent diary on DKOS today too, to paraphrase, I'll believe it when I see it. Trotting out aging Black sports stars like Darryl Strawberry is not a sign Black men are moving toward trump. Also stepping up for trump are Mike Tyson and Don King. Ok then.
I can't possibly read and then respond to every analysis that's out there. I do my stuff, make my case and you are welcome to come to your own conclusions. I obviously do not agree what Cook has written but I am just noy going to ever get into the business of picking apart every thing I don't agree with or I would have nothing else to do. Onward, S
Simon I recently joined Hopium because I followed your comments, spot on by the way, in 2022. But your answer to the question above seems like a very important issue was upsetting. Is it posible that just too much time, energy, and money is so heavily tilted to the swing states; I just do not understand why the dems do not concentrate on smaller states like Alaska and Kansas. A blindside strategy that who knows might work.
Dr. Steelman, there are dozens of articles written every day about American politics, dozens of segments on cable news etc. What I am speaking to is the idea that I would have the bandwith or capacity to respond to things people read as a matter of course, or that is even a good use of my time. What I am resisting here is the idea that folks can bat up stuff for me to respond to and then expect me to. I would no time to do anything else. I read the major analyses and understand them. But as a matter of my focus I do my own work and do not let the work of others drive my understandings or dictate what I work on. This is more broadly something I recommend to all of you - stay grounded, focused on the mission at hand and do not let all the crap out there blow you are around each day. We have to do more, worry less, ignore the noise and just go out and win the election.
I am by no means a statistician but I am not currently persuaded by anything the Cook Political Report is choosing to emphasize currently. Point of reference is Amy Walter’s Monday segment on PBS NewsHour. Last night she focused on Biden’s weaker than expected support among African Americans. Notably this soft support was not translating to solid support for the Orange Menace. What burns me is the emphasis on Biden’s weakness. Where’s the grab the smelling salts analysis of Trump’s weakness with sane Republicans? How do they compare?? It’s utterly exhausting and I find irresponsible. So to Simon’s point do more, worry less. And definitely think independently!! Media loves the fear and the clicks….
Virginia is not in play - Cook is just trying to generate engagement (and subscriptions). It’s the pollster weighting issues and nothing else. They have horrible (truly horrible) response rates and low quality samples so they weight it based on their perception of the environment - many using the Nate Cohn theory. And you get silly results like the ones put up in that Cook article. Virginia is not and is not going to be in play.
Saw the Economist’s prediction model was showing Trump with a 66% to 75% chance of winning … it’s gone between the two numbers for the past few days. How do you all get past the sense of ennui that you feel when we see these numbers? Or frankly, when you watch CNN?!? HOW CAN THIS RACE BE TIED?!?
I know — polls and models don’t vote — and we just saw an Ohio special House race in a deep red district move 20 points(!) toward the Dem …. in a race where the Democrat didn’t even have a campaign manager for much of his race!! The Republican still won but — wow!!
I’ve been furiously writing postcards. Phone banking. Donating. But how do we push back at this literal firehose of disinformation about Biden’s competence?!?
And finally …. I’ve been trying to make people aware of right-wing Sinclair Broadcasting who’s acquired 300 local TV stations … ABC, CBS, even NBC in Montana!! They’re pushing out literal propaganda ( Google the recent story Sinclair posted to every affiliate website re: Joe Biden’s “ wandering “ & “ empty chair” at D Day.
This week, Politico released a new poll with some pretty big surprises: A larger-than-expected percentage of Americans say Donald Trump’s criminal conviction in Manhattan makes them less likely to vote for him. The finding is even more striking among independents. The poll also took the innovative step of trying to gauge how important Trump’s conviction is to voters. And the answer is: Pretty important! We talked to Ankush Khardori, a senior writer for Politico Magazine who oversaw this poll, who walked us through its findings, what they mean, and whether Trump’s pressure on Republicans to protect him from the law will backfire on the GOP in November.
Yes, and they and Rick Wilson seem to be the only ones talking about it, well Markos and Kelly Eleveld too. If Gary Hart was ruined for taking a boat ride, are we really to believe people will ignore a convicted felon and rapist, especially when we actually are enjoying relatively good and stable times? Does this make sense? If it doesn't make sense, it's probably wrong. trump has made no case as to why he would be better as president. Period.
I listened to that, as well. It's encouraging. And it tracks with common sense. Common sense says most Americas aren't going to want to vote for a convicted felon. He's lost the popular vote twice. Why would he win this time, now that he's been held guilty of sexual assault, defamation, and business fraud, not to mention election interference?
Just put my Biden/Harris2024 big old bumper sticker on the back window of my car this morning right next to my state's rep who is running again for his House seat. They are right next to my "Proud Democrat Veteran" bumper sticker and will stay there until 11/6. Ongoing thanks to Simon for keeping me upbeat and positive for 2024. I'm also watching The Bulwark's YouTube channel and they are all-in on Biden/Harris, so the "sane" GOPers are out there and as disgusted as we are with the christo-fascist MAGAts who have turned that former party into a cult of personality. May IQ45** live until 11/6 to see his bid go down in even bigger flames this time and take the cult down with him - I'm hoping for a Dem sweep of Congress, too. It may just give us the chance to turn the USS Titanic around before it's too late.
Hopium doesn't just provide glib encouragement for the Dems this November, you astutely lay out the evidence behind our talking points. Sending cyber hugs!
Thank you for promoting Ms. Engel. This is a toss-up US House seat and she can win it. We should all give to the max.
BTW if you're in Madison you might have a chance to meet Kirk Bangstad of the Minocqua Brewing Company, who is fighting the good fight in Wisconsin and taking a continual beating from the alt-right there.
CNN has down the black hole of cult propaganda. Give up on them, they aren't coming back from it.
I have not had a TV in a decade. I watch a few clips of CNN on YouTube from time to time and continue to think that I made the right move. CNN made breathless claims about the recent criminal trial of DJT in NYC. I followed the case closely and read a lot of the transcripts. In no way did CNN's reporting match what I was reading. They dramatically announced that the defense team had destroyed the prosecution at one point, that there would be a hung jury, or that the charges were novel. Lies. Lies. Lies. It was obvious to me that the prosecution made a very thorough presentation of evidence of falsified business records as part of a conspiracy to aid DJT's campaign. Jury agreed on all 34 counts in 11 hours. This should have surprised exactly zero people who have ever sat on juries.
"Yup, it says right here in the small print or your contract: "When your pundit predictions are woefully wrong, you don’t get paid.""
😡 🤮🤬 “ get mad and DO more!”
( paraphrasing here)
Nov 5 is Democracy Day (D-Day). Time to defeat the Nazis (gQp; "republicans") once again.
For everyone here wanting a peek into the mind of the "low-info" youth voter, I just got to have a rare politics talk with my younger brother, and the following is an as-close-to-verbatim-as-my-short-term-memory-will-allow transcription of his thoughts. He is 24, a recent college grad working at Walmart. He was an unenthusiastic Biden vote in '20, but blue again in '22. His friend group is progressive/leftist and he gets most of his news from them or social media.
On the anti-Israel protests: "I feel like they're alienating people. I am getting so f---ing tired of hearing about this one tiny strip of land. There have been other wars, but I guess those weren't a hot topic. We have one of those encampments on the quad. Now no one can use that park, and the grass is absolutely ruined. School has put up a barrier asking them to stay away from those big ole trees around the area we all love. I literally care more about that by now. I swear if they even touch one of those trees with those tents I'm gonna go down there and go ballistic on them all myself. Look, the sh-t I've seen and heard about is horrifying, but I feel like no one wants to think about how much worse it could be? Israel is jacked to the teeth because they always have had to be. They're still behaving like monsters, but... Frankly, 40k or whatever doesn't seem like that many people for a war. My problem is that the alive people's quality of life is absolute dogsh-t, and there are so many kids. I just want peace, but you're not gonna get that by talking like an idiot and ruining my commute."
On the border crisis: "Wait, what? Is that what they're actually saying? Since when? You're supposed to feel bad for those people! Look at where they're coming from! How would they know exactly what the process is? Aren't we supposed to be welcoming? RACIST. We wouldn't care if they were coming from Canada."
On crime: "I haven't noticed anything. I mean, people are always trying to steal sh-t from Walmart, but that's Walmart. Like they would feel it. OMG, wait a sec!" [Pulls out his phone, scrolls for a minute, shows me a video of a woman saying "All my man did was rob the gas station, y'all acting like he tried to rob Walmart or something!" She proceeds to sing "Release my n----!" to the tune of Feliz Navidad. He laughs.]
On inflation: "You know who is always complaining about prices in my checkout line? Old people. Almost every time it's an old person. Like, we're all just trying to get by. I'm eating ramen every day so I can go to that concert because my rent just went up $60, but I'm not complaining. I can't remember what it was when it was what the price was "supposed to be." Geez. Hey, y'know what? I've got the free Tinder, and I just set my age limit up. Time to get me a sugar momma!"
On energy policy: "I actually wouldn't care if the government doubled the gas price just to make people buy hybrid. Like, it would suck for me right now but I would get it. But it's all the companies just being greedy. We got peeps out here acting like Shell is worth paying a dollar more for like it's special. I can't wait until the Saudis and all those other guys over there are done."
On 45's conviction: "We talkin' 'bout our main opp right now. Bro more than deserved it."
On who he is voting for: "Joe has done some good stuff. I understand why people would prefer someone else, but I'll never understand why anyone would prefer the alternative. Total barf."
He actually sounds way more informed than most people I know.....great post!
"Total barf" says it all! What an excellent young man!
I was actually thinking recently about how much I knew about politics in my early 20’s (during Watergate) and it was very, very little. Your brother is far more informed than I was. Thanks so much for reporting on your conversation with him. Very interesting, and hopeful!
Hello Readers,
Please join me this Thursday 4 pm PDT/7 pm EDT in a webinar featuring Galvanize Action, the only national organization developing messages proven to move moderate white women in swing states towards progress. https://www.galvanizeaction.org/ Galvanize Action launched six years ago in response to the rising white nationalism and authoritarianism that threatens to destroy our democracy. They use cutting-edge audience research and modeling to inform programming that moves moderate women to defend our democracy and support progress. Galvanize Action will be featured by Focus for Democracy (https://www.focus4democracy.org/), which rigorously evaluates and selects a few groups they determine are the best investment for democracy. If you value rigorous research and evaluation, please register by clicking on this link. bit.ly/F4D20June
I've been thinking about the advantage President Biden has with likely voters and the way that will help his re-election in ways outside of the voting booth. It was striking - and heartening - to me to see how much activism Democrats generated around Tom Suozzi's win in the recent special election on Long Island. That kind of activism requires dedicated citizens stepping up to do the work required to win elections.
Joe Biden already has those people at his back - they are to folks who know already, five months before the election, that they will be voting Blue. National media is not only ignoring the advantage Biden has in the polls with likely voters, but also the work many of them will do canvassing, texting, calling, donating between now and November. We've got this folks - there are more of us than them and we are here ready to do the work!
Register Democrats to sweep.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Thanks Simon for promoting Kirsten in LD18! Good interview. Thanks for your focus on us in Southern Tucson.
I live in AZCD06 and am excited and grateful for the spotlight and support from Hopium. Flipping this district was our motivation to create the grassroots “Worry Less Postcard Project.” More that 100 volunteers are adding personal notes to 40,000 postcards with reproductive rights messages asking voters to support Kirsten Engle, Arizona for Abortion Access, Ruben Gallego and Joe Biden…. postcards will be mailed Sept 30 just before voters receive their mail-in ballots.
amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Love the “ worry less” postcard project. Every time I get worried I crank out a few more postcards… Ohio for absentee voting and Wisconsin for voting … period! I lived most of my 65+ years in Wisconsin, born in Milwaukee — retired to Portland ( OR) since the only grandchild is here.
I follow the owner of Minocqua Brewing in Wisconsin because he is such an inspiration!The local,far-right good ole boys keep trying to knock him down out but he keeps fighting back.
Locals can purchase NOPE NOT IN WISCONSIN! signs. Also ,of course, Biden Beer 🍺.
https://www.minocquabrewingcompany.com/
Kathy, that’s WONDERFUL! I found out just today Minocqua Brewing won their latest round in the court and the judge gave his adversaries a tongue lashing! It won’t stop here unfortunately but he’s wining his battle so far🤞🏻
Love hearing from another supporter! He’s a Dem trying to survive in a bright red district. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙 Thank you, Janet and friends!💙💙💙💙💙💙
I used to live in Tucson so excited to help out.
Harry Enten, a stats guy on cnn is causing a stir on the internet. he used to work for 538 and now works for the daily caller created by tucker carlson. he says that 30% of black voters will vote for trump, something no republican has ever had. I find that hard to swallow. Trump has never done anything for the black voter to make their life better.
when it comes to the border wall, when trump was in the whitehouse, he took kids away from their parents and locked them in cages. Now he plans to deport everyone. Biden has more empathy and wants to protect some of them
when it comes to palestine, trump would order bebe to finish off palestine and annex their territory. Biden continues to try for a ceasefire.
when it comes to inflation,people are complaining about biden, but trumps tax and tariff plan would blow a hole thru the roof with inflation and most families would be paying 3,000 to 5,000 a year in taxes every year (like what happened to us in tax years 2021 and 2022) because trump would cut taxes for the rich making life unaffordable for the rest of us
this is the first year since tax year 2020 that my wife and I received a large refund. its coming in late june or july
I don't trust polls, especially after the 2016 election. Too many of them have been way off and too far to right of what's really happening, that's why I'm here. Simon seems to have the geeky stats view of reality that I appreciate - facts and truth, not spin and propaganda. Remember, BILLIONS of ad dollars are up for bids in this election cycle and all of the greedy folks with their hands out will do or say anything for the filthy lucre and to try to demoralize us.
Stick with Jon Ralston on NV. I'd like to know why these people think so many AA's are supporting trump. I don't hear any convincing arguments, just panic and fear mongering. And no data either.
Harry should look at things other than really bad crosstabs - like polls of just Afro-Americans or actual reality. Again it’s just Enten trying to get engagement. Check out Status Kuo on substack, his post yesterday really dismantled the type of bs Enten is shoveling.
There's a decent diary on DKOS today too, to paraphrase, I'll believe it when I see it. Trotting out aging Black sports stars like Darryl Strawberry is not a sign Black men are moving toward trump. Also stepping up for trump are Mike Tyson and Don King. Ok then.
I love your posts, Simon, and am confident about your interpretation of the widespread maze of polls inundating us weekly; however, the non-pay-walled portion of this news item from Cook Political Report posted in the WSJ Politics and Policy daily Briefing this morning threw me for a bit of a loop. Can you supply any context or differing take on it? - "Biden’s slumping poll numbers not only limited to swing states (Cook Political Report)" - https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/bidens-slumping-poll-numbers-not-only-limited-swing-states?mod=djemCapitalJournalDaybreak
I can't possibly read and then respond to every analysis that's out there. I do my stuff, make my case and you are welcome to come to your own conclusions. I obviously do not agree what Cook has written but I am just noy going to ever get into the business of picking apart every thing I don't agree with or I would have nothing else to do. Onward, S
Simon I recently joined Hopium because I followed your comments, spot on by the way, in 2022. But your answer to the question above seems like a very important issue was upsetting. Is it posible that just too much time, energy, and money is so heavily tilted to the swing states; I just do not understand why the dems do not concentrate on smaller states like Alaska and Kansas. A blindside strategy that who knows might work.
Dr. Steelman, there are dozens of articles written every day about American politics, dozens of segments on cable news etc. What I am speaking to is the idea that I would have the bandwith or capacity to respond to things people read as a matter of course, or that is even a good use of my time. What I am resisting here is the idea that folks can bat up stuff for me to respond to and then expect me to. I would no time to do anything else. I read the major analyses and understand them. But as a matter of my focus I do my own work and do not let the work of others drive my understandings or dictate what I work on. This is more broadly something I recommend to all of you - stay grounded, focused on the mission at hand and do not let all the crap out there blow you are around each day. We have to do more, worry less, ignore the noise and just go out and win the election.
I am by no means a statistician but I am not currently persuaded by anything the Cook Political Report is choosing to emphasize currently. Point of reference is Amy Walter’s Monday segment on PBS NewsHour. Last night she focused on Biden’s weaker than expected support among African Americans. Notably this soft support was not translating to solid support for the Orange Menace. What burns me is the emphasis on Biden’s weakness. Where’s the grab the smelling salts analysis of Trump’s weakness with sane Republicans? How do they compare?? It’s utterly exhausting and I find irresponsible. So to Simon’s point do more, worry less. And definitely think independently!! Media loves the fear and the clicks….
Virginia is not in play - Cook is just trying to generate engagement (and subscriptions). It’s the pollster weighting issues and nothing else. They have horrible (truly horrible) response rates and low quality samples so they weight it based on their perception of the environment - many using the Nate Cohn theory. And you get silly results like the ones put up in that Cook article. Virginia is not and is not going to be in play.
Saw the Economist’s prediction model was showing Trump with a 66% to 75% chance of winning … it’s gone between the two numbers for the past few days. How do you all get past the sense of ennui that you feel when we see these numbers? Or frankly, when you watch CNN?!? HOW CAN THIS RACE BE TIED?!?
I know — polls and models don’t vote — and we just saw an Ohio special House race in a deep red district move 20 points(!) toward the Dem …. in a race where the Democrat didn’t even have a campaign manager for much of his race!! The Republican still won but — wow!!
I’ve been furiously writing postcards. Phone banking. Donating. But how do we push back at this literal firehose of disinformation about Biden’s competence?!?
And finally …. I’ve been trying to make people aware of right-wing Sinclair Broadcasting who’s acquired 300 local TV stations … ABC, CBS, even NBC in Montana!! They’re pushing out literal propaganda ( Google the recent story Sinclair posted to every affiliate website re: Joe Biden’s “ wandering “ & “ empty chair” at D Day.
I, for one, rarely read the Economist because their articles are unsigned. And except for very occasional online video clips, I no longer watch CNN.
Personally, I place far more trust in those large-sample polls known as "special elections".
Just listened to the most recent episode of Greg Sargent's podcast "The Daily Blast".
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/shocker-poll-trump-verdict-actually-does-matter-to/id1728152109?i=1000659372920
Here's the description of this episode:
This week, Politico released a new poll with some pretty big surprises: A larger-than-expected percentage of Americans say Donald Trump’s criminal conviction in Manhattan makes them less likely to vote for him. The finding is even more striking among independents. The poll also took the innovative step of trying to gauge how important Trump’s conviction is to voters. And the answer is: Pretty important! We talked to Ankush Khardori, a senior writer for Politico Magazine who oversaw this poll, who walked us through its findings, what they mean, and whether Trump’s pressure on Republicans to protect him from the law will backfire on the GOP in November.
Yes, and they and Rick Wilson seem to be the only ones talking about it, well Markos and Kelly Eleveld too. If Gary Hart was ruined for taking a boat ride, are we really to believe people will ignore a convicted felon and rapist, especially when we actually are enjoying relatively good and stable times? Does this make sense? If it doesn't make sense, it's probably wrong. trump has made no case as to why he would be better as president. Period.
Thank you for mentioning Gary Hart. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve thought about that whole episode and how it contrasts with where we are now.
"The Lincoln Project is grabbing him by his fragile ego.
When you know where to poke, you can live rent-free in Trump’s twisted mind."
.
I agree 100%!
I listened to that, as well. It's encouraging. And it tracks with common sense. Common sense says most Americas aren't going to want to vote for a convicted felon. He's lost the popular vote twice. Why would he win this time, now that he's been held guilty of sexual assault, defamation, and business fraud, not to mention election interference?
Just put my Biden/Harris2024 big old bumper sticker on the back window of my car this morning right next to my state's rep who is running again for his House seat. They are right next to my "Proud Democrat Veteran" bumper sticker and will stay there until 11/6. Ongoing thanks to Simon for keeping me upbeat and positive for 2024. I'm also watching The Bulwark's YouTube channel and they are all-in on Biden/Harris, so the "sane" GOPers are out there and as disgusted as we are with the christo-fascist MAGAts who have turned that former party into a cult of personality. May IQ45** live until 11/6 to see his bid go down in even bigger flames this time and take the cult down with him - I'm hoping for a Dem sweep of Congress, too. It may just give us the chance to turn the USS Titanic around before it's too late.
Hopium doesn't just provide glib encouragement for the Dems this November, you astutely lay out the evidence behind our talking points. Sending cyber hugs!
Why, thank you so much, that's sweet! 🤗💙
Thank you for promoting Ms. Engel. This is a toss-up US House seat and she can win it. We should all give to the max.
BTW if you're in Madison you might have a chance to meet Kirk Bangstad of the Minocqua Brewing Company, who is fighting the good fight in Wisconsin and taking a continual beating from the alt-right there.
Looks like they produce quality coolant!
What I'd like to see is a 30-second ad that asks:
"How did we go from 'Morning in America' [over a 3-second clip of Reagan's original ad, no words]
"to sundowning?" [over a 25-second splice of several of Trump's recent idiocies, from sharks to ending the war(s) in 24 hours to ....]
Biden is kicking ass on live tv right now, folks, with this new initiative to protect immigrant spouses.