Good morning all. I write from Los Angeles today, and look forward to seeing folks tonight at our event with Grassroots Democrats HQ. I joined youth activist David Hogg for a discussion about the 2024 election at the Annenberg School at USC yesterday. He has a lot of insights into what happened with young people this year, and I hope to be able to bring him into one of our future What Happened/What Comes Next discussions. I already have three interviews scheduled for next week and am pleased with where this discussion series is headed.
As I am on the road a slightly less robust Hopium today than usual. Note that as of now we do not have any paid subscriber briefings scheduled but we do have a showing of “With Democrats, Things Get Better” scheduled for Tuesday at 1pm ET (see below). Hope you can join me!
Note the next Hopium post is likely to be Monday as we shift to five days a week (unless something important happens or I get the urge to write).
Fighting Trump’s Dangerous 4 - A central theme of my post-election commentary has been the need for Democrats to evolve from it’s “a time for governing and a time for campaigning” approach to one that fights the info war with the right 24/7/365. We are now about to see an early test of whether our family, especially our elected leaders, understand the new, collective assignment for we simply must do everything we can now to block and derail Trump’s 4 most dangerous nominations: Tulsi Gabbard, Matt Gaetz, Pete Hegseth and Robert Kennedy. While we may not be successful, we must try, and in the process start building out new capacities, networks and understandings that will make it more likely we succeed in the challenging years to come.
We had a good conversation about this new moment in our paid subscriber chat yesterday. One question people kept asking was “what can I do?” Two quick answers. Get smarter about all 4, or pick 1 you want to focus on. I offered some initial info yesterday. Next, call your House Member and Senator, regardless of party, and let them know you are counting on them for the good of the country to leave it all out there on the playing field to block these dangerous nominations.
Folks may not have the appetite for this fight right now, and that’s fine. Rest up, check out, do what you have to do to take care of yourself. But for those who want to fight, we have to get to work. Step 1 today is to let your elected leaders in Washington know what you expect from them. These offices monitor these calls closely, both in terms of what they are hearing and what they are *not* hearing. It will be important in these coming days for Senators and House Members to know their constituents want them to stand and fight. So please pick up the phone and make a few calls today.
Here is something you may want to mention - Senate Dems can hold confirmation hearings on Trump’s nominees this December while we still have control. Here is what Congressional scholar Norm Ornstein wrote on Twitter:
Dems have the Senate majority for the next 60-plus days. Use it! Not just to confirm judges. Hold your own pre-confirmation hearings. Foreign Relations on Tulsi Gabbards ties to Russia. Intel Committee onJohn Ratliffe's misconduct on intelligence in Trump's first term
Judiciary on Matt Gaetz's corruption and repeated sexual offenses. Homeland Security on Kristi Noem's lack of qualifications and corruption of office in SD, Tom Homan's sadistic and illegal child separation. HELP Committee on RFK's lunatic theories
Armed Services on Pete Hegseth being bounced from the military for extremism, ties to white nationalism, plans to hollow out the military. All this will be whitewashed when the GOP takes the majority. Preempt them!
Here is Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, on why Tulsi Gabbard cannot become DNI:
Here is a clip of a recent interview with Robert Kennedy that deserves wider attention:
“Lived Experience” Is A Political Construct, Part xxxx - From economist Justin Wolfers:
What Happened/What Comes Next - While I am still working on my big, comprehensive take on the 2024 election, and today have far more questions than answers, here are some initial thoughts on what happened this year:
2024 was a close election. Trump will not reach 50% of the national vote and his final margin will be give or take 1.5 points. In the battlegrounds it will be 0.9 points in WI, 1.4 in MI, 1.9 in PA and 2.2 in GA. A shift of 1.9 points in MI, PA, WI and Harris wins. 2024 was not a landslide, not a blowout. It was a close election, aided by illicit interventions by the Supreme Court and Judge Cannon which kept Trump’s trials for his disqualifying, serial betrayals of the country from coming before voters this year.
The Senate today is at 52-48 (PA is still counting) and Rs will have at most a 3 seat advantage in the House, making the chamber once again challenging to manage for a factious party. While Harris lost the 7 battleground states, we had important down ballot wins, including AZ, MI, NV, WI Senate and NC Governor. We had other important wins across the US, won the blue dot again in Nebraska and in the state where the Hopium community invested the most money, North Carolina, we won elections for Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Superintendent of Public Instruction, State Supreme Court, NC-01 and we broke the GOP’s state legislative supermajority.
Kamala Harris was given a very tough assignment. To come into and win the race starting three points down in late July was no easy thing. I think she then put in one of the greatest political performances we’ve seen in the modern era of American politics, taking the baton from President Biden, uniting the party around her, making a great VP pick, putting on the best and most inspiring Convention in my lifetime, crafting a powerful narrative and story for her campaign, kicking Trump’s blubbering ass in their only debate and then campaigning with a level of intensity and power we’ve seldom seen. There can be no question that she left it all out there on the playing field for us this year.
Despite all this, and despite him being a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon there was a 5.8 point shift in the national popular vote towards Trump this cycle, and Trump is on track to be only the second Republican to win the national popular vote since 1988. Our underperformance with Hispanic voters and young people this year was a grave blow to the coalition that got us on average 51% of the vote over the past 4 Presidential election. It is an urgent priority to figure out what went wrong with these two groups, and to come with up with a party wide plan to regain lost ground. We also need a big discussion on why late deciders broke towards Trump, despite our ground and paid media closing advantage.
I also think we need a very big conversation on why the threat of MAGA, which drove our elections in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 failed to do so in 2024 when it was a far more dangerous and extreme iteration of MAGA than any of its previous manifestations. A particular focus will need to be on why the Harris SuperPAC, Future Forward, armed with an unprecedented budget of $700m, was unable to make the historical ugliness of Trump and MAGA material enough to voters who had repeatedly rejected it in these previous elections.
If we had successfully disqualified Trump, as many campaigns have been able to do to their opponents with far less money and far less to work with, it is far less likely late deciders would have broken to Trump and handed him the election. From the Exit Polls:
While there were bright spots for us in the 2024 election, particularly in the battleground states, this was a very bad election for our party, our freedoms, our democracy and our future and there is a lot of important work ahead of us.
What leaves me most optimistic about what comes next is the strength of our rising generation of political leaders. It is a remarkably strong and capable crew, and I look forward to having them lead us in this time of ferocious opposition.
Here is where our 15 endorsed House candidates today:
Too Close To Call/Still Counting (3) - Gray CA-13, Tran CA-45, Bohannan IA-1
Losses (8) - Shah AZ-01, Engel AZ-06, Salas CA-22, Rollins CA-41, Vargas NE-02, Jones NY-17, Altman NJ-07, Stelson PA-10
While the House officially went to the Rs on Wednesday, I remain very proud of the good we’ve done, together, this cycle. We made deeply strategic investments and got important wins in a tough year in AZ, NC, NE, WI and critical House races across the country. Of the 6 House seats Dems flipped this cycle, our community aggressively backed 5 of them - George Whitesides CA-27, Tom Suozzi NY-3, Laura Gillen NY-4, Josh Riley NY-19 and Janelle Bynum OR-5.
Post-Election Pods, Posts and Videos - I got together with Tara McGowan and David Rothkopf last Thursday for one of our Deep State Radio discussions about US politics. This is the first of what will be many discussions I will be participating in about what happened and where we go from here.
A few more things to chew if you haven’t gotten to them yet:
My big thank yous to members of the Hopium community who left it all out there on the playing field this cycle - Post | Video
I’ve offered a series of post-election posts on the need for us to get louder (here, here, and here), something we also discussed in my recent Closing Strong conversation with Dan Pfeiffer and Tara McGowan, and in my talk with Joe Trippi from Wednesday
Hopium “Thank You, Rest Up and Get Ready” Party in Los Angeles Today at 6pm - I’m teaming up with our friends at the Grassroots Democrats HQ to have a formal thank you party tonight, Friday. at 6pm PT. It will take place at the GDHQ office, 1027 Westwood Boulevard in Los Angeles. All members of the Hopium community are invited so please RSVP today! I am really looking forward to seeing members of this community, and thanking all of you in person.
While we did not have the election we all wanted to have, grassroots Democrats have much to be proud of, and left it all out there on the playing field this year. It will be an honor to be able to thank folks in person for their extraordinary work this cycle (which in California continues this week!).
Tuesday, November 19th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Join me for the next live showing of my big picture presentation on American politics, With Democrats, Things Get Better. It is newly updated with each showing, so even if you caught it earlier this year there will be new data and fresh analysis. Please register here. The arguments in this presentation are foundational to our work here at Hopium, and will be helpful to those wrestling with where we go from here.
My favorite slide from With Dems:
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Simon, pls emphasize the importance of people calling their senators now to confirm the remaining 29 judges. Even if they have to keep the Senate open longer than usual. No holiday recess until all judges are confirmed! We must get these judges confirmed before January 20.
You find yourself in a position that has more significance now than in any time in its history. You are Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate, a body that has the Constitutional obligation to advise and consent – or not – on appointments to crucial positions in the United States government. You are now challenged by a President-elect of your own party to approve his nominees who are, by any rational measure, not only unfit to hold the offices to which he has appointed them, but would pose a danger to the United States if they were to ascend to those positions. It is your duty to muster Senators of your party and the opposition to deny those appointments and to refuse to allow temporary appointments if Congress were in recess.
Your father, Harold Thune, was a Navy fighter pilot in World War II, credited with shooting down four enemy planes. You predecessor as a Senator from South Dakota, George McGovern, flew 35 missions over Europe in that war as pilot of a B-24. They had courage, two o’clock in the morning courage, because they knew that the fate of the United States as a democracy was on the line. You are in a position to muster some courage now. The stakes are high. The nominees you will be asked to confirm are also a threat to the United States as a democracy. Should you stand up to him, the President-elect will call you nasty names and threaten your political future, as he has in the past. His minions in the Senate will follow. Please pay no heed. Your plane will not be shot down. History will record your efforts. Your grandchildren and great grandchildren will be able to point with pride at your role saving the country, as did your father and Senator McGovern.
Simon, pls emphasize the importance of people calling their senators now to confirm the remaining 29 judges. Even if they have to keep the Senate open longer than usual. No holiday recess until all judges are confirmed! We must get these judges confirmed before January 20.
An open letter to Senator John Thune
Dear Senator Thune,
You find yourself in a position that has more significance now than in any time in its history. You are Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate, a body that has the Constitutional obligation to advise and consent – or not – on appointments to crucial positions in the United States government. You are now challenged by a President-elect of your own party to approve his nominees who are, by any rational measure, not only unfit to hold the offices to which he has appointed them, but would pose a danger to the United States if they were to ascend to those positions. It is your duty to muster Senators of your party and the opposition to deny those appointments and to refuse to allow temporary appointments if Congress were in recess.
Your father, Harold Thune, was a Navy fighter pilot in World War II, credited with shooting down four enemy planes. You predecessor as a Senator from South Dakota, George McGovern, flew 35 missions over Europe in that war as pilot of a B-24. They had courage, two o’clock in the morning courage, because they knew that the fate of the United States as a democracy was on the line. You are in a position to muster some courage now. The stakes are high. The nominees you will be asked to confirm are also a threat to the United States as a democracy. Should you stand up to him, the President-elect will call you nasty names and threaten your political future, as he has in the past. His minions in the Senate will follow. Please pay no heed. Your plane will not be shot down. History will record your efforts. Your grandchildren and great grandchildren will be able to point with pride at your role saving the country, as did your father and Senator McGovern.
Asking for America,
Judd Kahn