FIRE HIM, Trump's Powers Of Persuasion Are Ebbing, Congress Needs To Hear From Us Next Week

New polls show Trump deeply underwater on the DC occupation

Morning all. Congress returns on Tuesday. It is critical that what they experience when they return is a riled up electorate, angry constituents, people demanding an end to Trump’s unprecedented agenda of sabotage, plunder and betrayal. Here are our four current recommended things to contact your Senators and Reps about today, tomorrow and every day in September:

• Roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs

• Block the expansion of ICE and the use of the military on our streets including DC

• End Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; demand the removal of madman Robert Kennedy from HHS; yes we need to FIRE HIM

• Stand with Ukraine and block Trump’s selling out of the West to Putin

Another action to consider is to contact your Governor or state Health Secretary and demand they work with their peers in other states to work to get the extremist Robert Kennedy removed from HHS. As we discussed earlier this week we need to keep finding a higher gear, and the model of cooperation the 23 Dem AGs have set - daily calls, intense coordination of strategy and action - needs to get replicated throughout the pro-democracy movement. Dem Govs, Health Secretaries and perhaps Education Secretaries too need to stand up for the health of their constituents and students, and not let Trump’s medieval savaging of our public health go unchallenged. WE NEED TO BE IN THEIR FACE EVERYDAY. All of us. In the coming days Congress needs to hear a loud and ferocious roar of disapproval from the American people. Do you part. Encourage your friends to join you. We need to fight, my friends.

We need to fight for despite the titanic efforts by Trump and his allies to make him into a Putinesque strongman the sundowning 34 times felon has lost his hold over the national discourse. Since Elon’s assault on Trump in early June we’ve seen this consistent pattern - a strongman action by Trump; MAGA influencers celebrate his STRENGTH, POWER and VIRILITY; and then a few days later polling tells us a majority of the country has rejected the latest strongman ploy and isn’t playing along. Other than border security, there is not a single important issue or event Trump has championed that has gotten into majority territory with voters. The LA escalation, the bombing of Iran, the big ugly bill, the August tariff orgy all failed to garner majority support and reverse his precipitous decline in the polls. A majority of the country isn’t buying what he is selling, and may be in the process of becoming unavailable to him and Republicans. Here is G. Elliott Morris’ latest issue aggregate:

Given their information superiority this is pretty stunning stuff.

As Trump has failed to sell his major initiatives again and again it was always unlikely that the country would rally behind Trump’s latest escapade - the mid-August occupation of the Capital justified by the ridiculous fiction that crime in DC was rising and he was there to make DC safer and better. And while a few early polls showed people essentially split we’ve gotten new polls this week showing the public rejecting - again - a major strongman Trump initiative.

Here’s some new data from Quinnipiac - National Guards troops to DC - 41% approve, 56% disapprove, with independents breaking 34%-61% (-27) against. Here’s their data on the rest of his agenda:

• crime: 42 percent approve, while 54 percent disapprove, with 4 percent not offering an opinion;

• talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine: 40 percent approve, while 52 percent disapprove, with 7 percent not offering an opinion;

• foreign policy: 40 percent approve, while 56 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;

• the economy: 39 percent approve, while 57 percent disapprove, with 4 percent not offering an opinion;

• trade: 38 percent approve, while 56 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;

• the Israel - Hamas conflict: 34 percent approve, while 53 percent disapprove, with 12 percent not offering an opinion.

Economist/YouGov has a rash of interesting data this week on the DC occupation and crime. First, on the question of whether crime is a rising area of concern for voters we are at the lowest level of voters saying crime has increased in the last 12 years (this is consistent with actual crime statistics):

And like Quinnipiac Trump is underwater on the deployment of the National Guard to DC with independents coming in at -21. Pictures of National Guard troops picking up garbage in recent days isn’t going to help with these numbers.

For years now the default position of the legacy media and national discourse is to overestimate his strength and underestimate ours. Challenging this emergent bias, something we saw powerfully in all the false red wave commentary in 2022, was a central reason I launched Hopium in March of 2023. When looking at all this data the story it tells is that Trump is weak, not strong; and it is clear now that this frenetic no vacation, forget-about-the Epstein files/tariffs/shitty economy/crappy poll numbers/Dems kicking our ass in elections and instead look at me red-carpeting Putin/building gilded ballrooms/raiding Bolton’s home/occupying DC/firing the black Fed woman August has not improved his standing with the public. Again, Strength In Numbers:

My weekly breakdown of the Economist/YouGov track:

We lead by 8 points in the new Strength In Numbers monthly generic ballot question:

This year we’ve been overperforming our 2024 results in special elections by 16 points. In the 2018 cycle, a cycle when we won the national House vote by 8.6 points, our average overperformance of the 2016 vote was 11 points, 5 points less than our performance so far in 2025. Encouraging stuff.

I’ve come to believe that the central project now of Trump and his allies is to get up everyday and work to construct this illusion of strength for Trump who is clearly in physical, cognitive and political decline. They slather him with his favorite burnt orange, coif and dye whatever it is that is on his head, tighten the bulging girdle, message his swollen ankles and legs, pump whatever it is they are pumping into him intravenously, wrap him in his long red tie and blue suit, show him fake right-wing polls to comfort and buoy him, and then roll him out at some staged event where someone ritualistically bends the knee and then he rallies to play “TRUMP” one more incoherent time. The wild over the top bending of the knee shitshow we saw yesterday at the Cabinet meeting was something that only a weak, insecure and diminished leader would need. It’s all a show, a terrible show that is without doubt the unGreatest show on Earth today, a pathetic show that still works for the old faithful but is losing its audience and relevance, daily.

As we often say here two things can be true at the same time - 1) Trump is doing enormous harm to the country; is breaking things that will be difficult if not impossible to repair; and he has escalated and become far more dangerous in August 2) “Trump” the brand is in significant decline, and losing its hold on the public and the power to persuade; Democrats keep overperforming in elections and we should be viewing the fall and 2026 elections as ones of opportunity and expansion. In 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 we seized the opportunity the ugliness of MAGA presented us. We failed to do it in 2024. In 2025 and 2026 we must lift ourselves up and once again seize the opportunity that is clearly in front of us now.

I think Trump escalated in August because he feels his powers ebbing, and is desperately trying everything he can to restore his STRENGTH, VIRILITY and POWER. Despite his efforts it isn’t working. So anticipate more escalation, more efforts to steal seats, rig the elections, weaken and degrade his opposition and a him growing more distant from the public. It is something that I’ve called the vicious cycle of a declining strongman, and yes we are in the midst of it today.

So, Simon, what do we do?

We get to work knowing that losing again as we did in 2024 is simply not an option this cycle and we are going to once again leave it out there on the playing field…..

Yes, let’s get to work everybody!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our “Must Win/Everyone In” Races

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $55k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Rep. Sherrill

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $174k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $28,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interviews with Gov. Cooper and NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We hit our $25,000 Labor Day goal Monday - great work everyone!

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $52k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $186k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer, Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents

Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.

Our Recommended Actions - We are prioritizing two actions today. You can get our full list of recommended actions here. Let’s get to it:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. We must demand that Congress

1. Roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs

2. Block the expansion of ICE and the use of the military on our streets including DC

3. End Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health and demand the removal of madman Robert Kennedy from HHS

4. Stand with Ukraine and block Trump’s selling out of the West to Putin

2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on get a resolution passed in your own community.

Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 64 (!!!!) resolutions projects in 20 states. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!

As we get ready for what is going to be a very intense fall of politics let’s end with that famous Robert Frost quote - that “the best way out is always through” - Simon