Polls are hard to interpret because there are so many different ones, they use different methodologies, and the current "trend" is determined by which poll cames out when.
To make this a bit more systematic, I focus just on the Morning Consult poll, which comes out weekly, has a large N and uses the same methodology each week. And the results over the last two months are striking: between Jan. 15 and Mar 24, Biden has seen an increase of *4 points* against Trump, from -3 to +1:
Hell yes they are! Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark has helped renew an originally established in 2020 called RVAT (Republican Voters Against Trump). Google them & you'll see testimonials from people that either are former Republican voters ( some who even voted for Trump in 2020!) who are done with him. Not all are saying they'll vote for Biden BUT a fair number are!
Simon: I love when you talk about the importance of looking at a broader set of data than just polls and consumer sentiment. I’d love to see a dashboard of all the things you think are worth tracking.
Did anyone else experience anything if the O’Donnell video just as he was starting to talk about “the Nixon rule” in journalism and commentators? I tried a couple of times to get the sound on in that last section…. What was going on?
yes - same thing happened here --- I am on a MacBook, and couldn't get it to continue right at that point - with several attempts - so must be on the video side, not "ours", Susan ... and BTW -- Rachel Maddow's Podcast/Broadcast of her Monday, 3/25, show addressed this same topic and was jaw dropping, in my opinion. Very informative --- lots of background, as usual, and well worth the listen, again, in my opinion.... Hang in there, Folks!!! onward! Carol, Santa Rosa Ca.
Thank You for your leadership, hard work, and dedication to American democracy!!! "Forward or Backward?" is a powerful, historical, red flag for each and every American. The fight for democracy, freedom, equality, and justice is never ending. You remind us of this every day. We are so grateful of your leadership!!!
What do you think of overwhelming NBC’s mailroom at 30 Rock with letters protesting Ronna McDaniel’s new contract … instead of ephemeral emails, or X protests - something physical, old-style, as in tens of thousands of letters.
We might also end subscriptions to NBC and Peacock in protest.
I understand NBC’s Carrie Budoff Brown, who’s had a meteoric rise in D.C. journalism circles, is responsible for the decision to hire Romney-McDaniel.
And no, I didn't buy 1000 postcards each of the last two designs, they were part of a variety pack! :-)
With postcards, there is no risk of white powdery substances, everyone who handles the postcard can read it, and it would stand out from a sea of white envelopes!
From both MSNBC and NBC? I heard the MSNBC part, but I thought she was still going to be working for NBC.
BTW - aren't you supposed to be on vacation? Neither you nor Jessica Craven seem to fully have the hang of it - Never check work emails on vacation! ;-)
It was just reported she is gone from both now. Thankfully. Amazing effort by NBC talent. Sorry for the glitch on the Last Word video - have inserted a link now and will update the video on line in a bit. Sorry about that - that came directly from the NBC News site. Onward!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is further proof that public pressure works & a testament to what kind of country we want! When malpractice like NBC's is called out with a loud enough voice, it can be corrected! Think you Simon for helping us find our voices ! Hope you are enjoying your vacation BTW !!!
Simon: I’m all aboard the Hopium train. That being said, it’s hard to hear “our economy is strong” with no wage growth in a decade, interest rates almost triple what they were pre-pandemic, and grocery, gas and pharmaceutical prices just slaughtering lower and middle class people. And don’t even get me started on rent. How can we keep telling America the sky is green when they can look for themselves and see it is bright blue? Maybe the economy is good for the upper classes, but your average Jane is not experiencing this. She is hurting. She is not feeling this strong economy in her paycheck. She thinks this is all a bunch of malarky.
Randy, two things: 1) would appreciate you engaging our economic and political analysis a bit more intensely for it explains why I don't agree with your assessment here 2) your no wage growth stat, which is the basis for this screed, is wrong. In recent years we've had both some of the fastest wage growth and real wage growth in decades.
interest rates almost triple what they were pre-pandemic...
Randy, I think you must either be young or suffer from a strong recency bias. From a historical perspective, we have simply reverted towards the mean. What was abnormal was the extended stretch of extraordinarily low interest rates and inflation from the Great Recession through the pandemic.
I’m nearly 70. You’re preaching to the choir, and you’ve made my point for me. If everything is so great, why am I surrounded by people who don’t feel it?
Run into a lot of people griping myself as a cashier take the following as an example though as far as per spective
But you cited an example now let me .. . I overheard a man just bitching to holy hell about not being able to feed his 4 kids then a couple of minutes later a friend of his pulls in behind him and that father of 4 starts bragging about the new 4 wheel drive he bought last spring n a boat he bought the year before. He then tells the guy about the AR-15 he bought last summer and all the ammo he had stockpiled. So answer me this what is he doing buying a 4 wheel drive when he's worried about feeding his kids and how does he haul them around in that vehicle? Let me guess his wife has a mini van and he lets her worry about hauling them around.The story u mentioned about putting beef back I seen all the time before pandemic, before Trump, before Biden.
Childcare Was outrageous when I started working at Walmart in 2005 at like 100 to 150 per kid per week. Just as I said before it's going on everywhere in the world and everyone wanted those stimulus checks along with good roads , hardcore law enforcement (as long as it doesn't cost us anything) , high quality public education and on and on but we don't want to pay for it. Well the time has come and will be coming we'll have to really pay for it.
I hope I didn't violate any standards here with my above post but I was debating a cousin about inflation and she talked about seeing a couple putting back ground beef because the husband said they couldn't afford it. Everything is a matter of perspective I hate inflation too but it's a lot worse in other countries around the world some places they don't even have prices on store shelves because prices are bound to go up just while one is shopping
Agreed - try sharing the post & maybe it will put somethings in perspective for the people that surround you. I still catch myself in the act of automatically buying spins from the media or talking heads.
In our pursuit of being informed information warriors, I am posting links to two PoliticsGirl episodes with the same guest, Ahmed Baba. The first talks about the Heritage Foundation's blueprint, Project 2025, and is a couple of months old. The second is from her show last week about Trump's personal fever dream (aka "Agenda 47"):
They are both rather depressing to watch, but I think it is important for all of us to have a good grasp on exactly what is at stake with this election, so that we can work on waking up all the other people in our lives and convincing them of the importance to vote!
Would you, at some point, please provide a list of reasons why we can stop worrying about third parties? I know an uncomfortably large number of people who will refuse to vote for Biden because of the Gaza thing, and they say they will vote for a third party or they won't vote at all. I'd love very much to believe that they really aren't a threat, but I hunger for reasons to believe it so I can be truly convinced.
RFK Jr could be a big problem for the Democrats, but if people are vaguely attached to him only because of his name, then a bunch of paid advertising should really help undermine his support as it reveals who he really is. And sadly because too many of us are really shallow, I also have to say that the problems with his voice will turn off a lot of people. (Plus it's unclear how many state ballots he'll be on).
That will leave us with Jill Stein. A problem, but not an existential one.
We don't know what feelings will be about Gaza in eight months so it's too soon to say how many will actually abandon Biden because of it.
Actually this has been discussed - I think last Thursday - in great length on that Hopium thread. Honestly, some of the "Gaza" people won't be available sadly. But Simon ( and others in the field) seem to believe it's a manageable problem & I have every reason to believe Biden & his team are aware of it. With that said there are other new voters coming into the fold. So honestly I think it will be a combination of some of those focused on Gaza coming back to our coalition & new voters. I myself am working to do more & worry less as Simon always says !
It's in the comment thread for the March 21st edition of Hopium... people who are much more knowledgeable about the situation - including Simon and an outreach person for the Democratic Party of Minnesota - than I weight in. Here's the link to last Thursdays edition of Hopium...
Blue Tsunami in Alabama last night! After losing by 7% in 2022, in a Huntsville district that Trump won, Mary Lands wins the Alabama special election by almost 25%. That’s a 32% swing!
.
But will the New York Times and the national election pundits give this result the weight it deserves? Don’t hold your breath. As real election expert Larry Sabato wryly observes:
"WARNING: These are just real election results, not headline-worthy polling data certified by the New York Times. Respected network pundits will disregard these actual votes and await the next batch of contrived polls."
Incredible essay. Vital for us to understand the trajectory we have taken over the past several decades as the guardrails of democracy have been slowly and deliberated eroded by one of our political parties. Here in our State people were enraged at what to many seemed like the inexplicable gutting of public education by our (Trump-sycophant) Governor and his slavish followers in the Legislature. The GOP majority first voted for a small (still inadequate) increase to the Base Student Allotment and then against, when the Governor vetoed it. Though the halls of Juneau's Capitol (very hard to get to, but people flew in) were filled with protestors, they cynically voted no to an override of the veto. The veto was upheld--by one vote. Legislators walked out through crowds of disappointed education supporters and those who voted with the Governor boasted. But...I think we may finally be beginning to see the results of the outrage that is following. And people are mad as hell here as it appears they are everywhere. May they vote in numbers too large to be questioned all over this country, in all the places where the polls are not registering how average communities are being gutted by GOP cruelty. Thanks again, Simon. Sharing.
Thank you for sharing these essays from earlier days. They performed a huge service then and now. They make clear the unshakeable truth that, using Stuart Stevens' title, "it was all a lie." "Limited govt", was not policy; it was code for "no govt services or role for anyone" who did not look like [a small group of] white men. They chose the "scapegoat path" in the service of their unlimited drive to aggrandize mortal fortune and power.
Polls are hard to interpret because there are so many different ones, they use different methodologies, and the current "trend" is determined by which poll cames out when.
To make this a bit more systematic, I focus just on the Morning Consult poll, which comes out weekly, has a large N and uses the same methodology each week. And the results over the last two months are striking: between Jan. 15 and Mar 24, Biden has seen an increase of *4 points* against Trump, from -3 to +1:
15-Jan -2
21-Jan -5
28-Jan -2
6-Feb -5
11-Feb -1
19-Feb -4
25-Feb -1
3-Mar 1
10-Mar -1
17-Mar 0
24-Mar 1
Why doesn't the Republican Party support Joe Biden? Joe Biden is where the Republican Party ought to be.
A lot of former Republicans ARE supporting him!
Hell yes they are! Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark has helped renew an originally established in 2020 called RVAT (Republican Voters Against Trump). Google them & you'll see testimonials from people that either are former Republican voters ( some who even voted for Trump in 2020!) who are done with him. Not all are saying they'll vote for Biden BUT a fair number are!
I'm one of them! Joe Biden is what Republicans would be if they hadn't spent the last three decades going insane.
Simon: I love when you talk about the importance of looking at a broader set of data than just polls and consumer sentiment. I’d love to see a dashboard of all the things you think are worth tracking.
Did anyone else experience anything if the O’Donnell video just as he was starting to talk about “the Nixon rule” in journalism and commentators? I tried a couple of times to get the sound on in that last section…. What was going on?
yes - same thing happened here --- I am on a MacBook, and couldn't get it to continue right at that point - with several attempts - so must be on the video side, not "ours", Susan ... and BTW -- Rachel Maddow's Podcast/Broadcast of her Monday, 3/25, show addressed this same topic and was jaw dropping, in my opinion. Very informative --- lots of background, as usual, and well worth the listen, again, in my opinion.... Hang in there, Folks!!! onward! Carol, Santa Rosa Ca.
I found that same clip on YouTube and the sound is fine thoughout:
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/lawrence-on-nbc-news-hiring-ronna-mcdaniel-and-the-nixon-rule-207670341999
Thank You for your leadership, hard work, and dedication to American democracy!!! "Forward or Backward?" is a powerful, historical, red flag for each and every American. The fight for democracy, freedom, equality, and justice is never ending. You remind us of this every day. We are so grateful of your leadership!!!
Simon:
What do you think of overwhelming NBC’s mailroom at 30 Rock with letters protesting Ronna McDaniel’s new contract … instead of ephemeral emails, or X protests - something physical, old-style, as in tens of thousands of letters.
We might also end subscriptions to NBC and Peacock in protest.
I understand NBC’s Carrie Budoff Brown, who’s had a meteoric rise in D.C. journalism circles, is responsible for the decision to hire Romney-McDaniel.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrie_Budoff_Brown
Write a letter; attach a page of Timothy Snyder’s “On Tyranny.”
Carrie Budoff Brown
30 Rockefeller Plaza
New York, NY 10112, United States.
getting out my stamp as we speak.....
I'm thinking a handwritten postcard - I have a variety of choices - what do you think?
https://www.etsy.com/listing/739360637/no-one-is-above-the-law-50-protest?
https://www.etsy.com/listing/1163180054/liberty-justice-for-all-us-capitol-voter?
https://www.etsy.com/listing/1564102714/1000-postcards-we-the-people-postcards?
https://www.etsy.com/listing/1630853198/1000-postcard-for-voters-message-from?
And no, I didn't buy 1000 postcards each of the last two designs, they were part of a variety pack! :-)
With postcards, there is no risk of white powdery substances, everyone who handles the postcard can read it, and it would stand out from a sea of white envelopes!
You have a point about powdery substances. How about
NO RONNA on the back. Big letters. All caps.
Use a sharpie! I have a variety of colors, but black works, too...
fyi - You can buy blank, postage paid postcards at the post office or online:
https://store.usps.com/store/results/stamped-cards/_/N-ncwfb2/Ntt-stamped?Dy=1
She is gone. Let's get back to our traditional politics!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
From both MSNBC and NBC? I heard the MSNBC part, but I thought she was still going to be working for NBC.
BTW - aren't you supposed to be on vacation? Neither you nor Jessica Craven seem to fully have the hang of it - Never check work emails on vacation! ;-)
It was just reported she is gone from both now. Thankfully. Amazing effort by NBC talent. Sorry for the glitch on the Last Word video - have inserted a link now and will update the video on line in a bit. Sorry about that - that came directly from the NBC News site. Onward!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is further proof that public pressure works & a testament to what kind of country we want! When malpractice like NBC's is called out with a loud enough voice, it can be corrected! Think you Simon for helping us find our voices ! Hope you are enjoying your vacation BTW !!!
Simon: I’m all aboard the Hopium train. That being said, it’s hard to hear “our economy is strong” with no wage growth in a decade, interest rates almost triple what they were pre-pandemic, and grocery, gas and pharmaceutical prices just slaughtering lower and middle class people. And don’t even get me started on rent. How can we keep telling America the sky is green when they can look for themselves and see it is bright blue? Maybe the economy is good for the upper classes, but your average Jane is not experiencing this. She is hurting. She is not feeling this strong economy in her paycheck. She thinks this is all a bunch of malarky.
Randy, two things: 1) would appreciate you engaging our economic and political analysis a bit more intensely for it explains why I don't agree with your assessment here 2) your no wage growth stat, which is the basis for this screed, is wrong. In recent years we've had both some of the fastest wage growth and real wage growth in decades.
Two things here to read: https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/another-strong-jobs-report-democrats and https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-economy-is-remarkably-strong?lli=1&utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbullshit&utm_medium=reader2
Thank you. S
interest rates almost triple what they were pre-pandemic...
Randy, I think you must either be young or suffer from a strong recency bias. From a historical perspective, we have simply reverted towards the mean. What was abnormal was the extended stretch of extraordinarily low interest rates and inflation from the Great Recession through the pandemic.
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates/
I’m nearly 70. You’re preaching to the choir, and you’ve made my point for me. If everything is so great, why am I surrounded by people who don’t feel it?
I would if I thought they would read it. They won’t. They don’t want to read how everything is so great while it’s so not for them.
Run into a lot of people griping myself as a cashier take the following as an example though as far as per spective
But you cited an example now let me .. . I overheard a man just bitching to holy hell about not being able to feed his 4 kids then a couple of minutes later a friend of his pulls in behind him and that father of 4 starts bragging about the new 4 wheel drive he bought last spring n a boat he bought the year before. He then tells the guy about the AR-15 he bought last summer and all the ammo he had stockpiled. So answer me this what is he doing buying a 4 wheel drive when he's worried about feeding his kids and how does he haul them around in that vehicle? Let me guess his wife has a mini van and he lets her worry about hauling them around.The story u mentioned about putting beef back I seen all the time before pandemic, before Trump, before Biden.
Childcare Was outrageous when I started working at Walmart in 2005 at like 100 to 150 per kid per week. Just as I said before it's going on everywhere in the world and everyone wanted those stimulus checks along with good roads , hardcore law enforcement (as long as it doesn't cost us anything) , high quality public education and on and on but we don't want to pay for it. Well the time has come and will be coming we'll have to really pay for it.
I hope I didn't violate any standards here with my above post but I was debating a cousin about inflation and she talked about seeing a couple putting back ground beef because the husband said they couldn't afford it. Everything is a matter of perspective I hate inflation too but it's a lot worse in other countries around the world some places they don't even have prices on store shelves because prices are bound to go up just while one is shopping
Agreed - try sharing the post & maybe it will put somethings in perspective for the people that surround you. I still catch myself in the act of automatically buying spins from the media or talking heads.
This is a great response focused specifically on what the Biden administration has done for Black economics, well worth a watch: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C48jQqGrzdM/?igsh=dmd2a3ZyNXgyNDR0
In our pursuit of being informed information warriors, I am posting links to two PoliticsGirl episodes with the same guest, Ahmed Baba. The first talks about the Heritage Foundation's blueprint, Project 2025, and is a couple of months old. The second is from her show last week about Trump's personal fever dream (aka "Agenda 47"):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPgeg_Jij8c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW-NjxL5oUw
They are both rather depressing to watch, but I think it is important for all of us to have a good grasp on exactly what is at stake with this election, so that we can work on waking up all the other people in our lives and convincing them of the importance to vote!
An amazingly prescient analysis of our changing national politics. Thank you, Simon, for your leadership in these challenging times !
Black! I’ll go for blank cards. That way, you can tailor the message to the issue. I’ll think of something.
Where do you get the blank cards from? And where do you go to find out what to write and where to send them?
No need now. Ronna’s contract with NBC has been cancelled. The Post Office sells blank postcards.
Sorry. I mean for other issues, candidates, etc.
Would you, at some point, please provide a list of reasons why we can stop worrying about third parties? I know an uncomfortably large number of people who will refuse to vote for Biden because of the Gaza thing, and they say they will vote for a third party or they won't vote at all. I'd love very much to believe that they really aren't a threat, but I hunger for reasons to believe it so I can be truly convinced.
No Labels seems to be flaming out -- hooray!
RFK Jr could be a big problem for the Democrats, but if people are vaguely attached to him only because of his name, then a bunch of paid advertising should really help undermine his support as it reveals who he really is. And sadly because too many of us are really shallow, I also have to say that the problems with his voice will turn off a lot of people. (Plus it's unclear how many state ballots he'll be on).
That will leave us with Jill Stein. A problem, but not an existential one.
We don't know what feelings will be about Gaza in eight months so it's too soon to say how many will actually abandon Biden because of it.
Actually this has been discussed - I think last Thursday - in great length on that Hopium thread. Honestly, some of the "Gaza" people won't be available sadly. But Simon ( and others in the field) seem to believe it's a manageable problem & I have every reason to believe Biden & his team are aware of it. With that said there are other new voters coming into the fold. So honestly I think it will be a combination of some of those focused on Gaza coming back to our coalition & new voters. I myself am working to do more & worry less as Simon always says !
Can you provide a link to the Hopium thread you refer to?
It's in the comment thread for the March 21st edition of Hopium... people who are much more knowledgeable about the situation - including Simon and an outreach person for the Democratic Party of Minnesota - than I weight in. Here's the link to last Thursdays edition of Hopium...
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/biden-leads-in-6-new-polls-the-booming?r=8pmfy&utm_medium=ios
I'll read the comments. Thanks.
Dear Simon,
Thank you so much for your 2012 essay!
Blue Tsunami in Alabama last night! After losing by 7% in 2022, in a Huntsville district that Trump won, Mary Lands wins the Alabama special election by almost 25%. That’s a 32% swing!
.
But will the New York Times and the national election pundits give this result the weight it deserves? Don’t hold your breath. As real election expert Larry Sabato wryly observes:
"WARNING: These are just real election results, not headline-worthy polling data certified by the New York Times. Respected network pundits will disregard these actual votes and await the next batch of contrived polls."
.
Incredible essay. Vital for us to understand the trajectory we have taken over the past several decades as the guardrails of democracy have been slowly and deliberated eroded by one of our political parties. Here in our State people were enraged at what to many seemed like the inexplicable gutting of public education by our (Trump-sycophant) Governor and his slavish followers in the Legislature. The GOP majority first voted for a small (still inadequate) increase to the Base Student Allotment and then against, when the Governor vetoed it. Though the halls of Juneau's Capitol (very hard to get to, but people flew in) were filled with protestors, they cynically voted no to an override of the veto. The veto was upheld--by one vote. Legislators walked out through crowds of disappointed education supporters and those who voted with the Governor boasted. But...I think we may finally be beginning to see the results of the outrage that is following. And people are mad as hell here as it appears they are everywhere. May they vote in numbers too large to be questioned all over this country, in all the places where the polls are not registering how average communities are being gutted by GOP cruelty. Thanks again, Simon. Sharing.
Thank you for sharing these essays from earlier days. They performed a huge service then and now. They make clear the unshakeable truth that, using Stuart Stevens' title, "it was all a lie." "Limited govt", was not policy; it was code for "no govt services or role for anyone" who did not look like [a small group of] white men. They chose the "scapegoat path" in the service of their unlimited drive to aggrandize mortal fortune and power.