Polls are hard to interpret because there are so many different ones, they use different methodologies, and the current "trend" is determined by which poll cames out when.
To make this a bit more systematic, I focus just on the Morning Consult poll, which comes out weekly, has a large N and uses the same methodology each week. And the results over the last two months are striking: between Jan. 15 and Mar 24, Biden has seen an increase of *4 points* against Trump, from -3 to +1:
Simon: I love when you talk about the importance of looking at a broader set of data than just polls and consumer sentiment. I’d love to see a dashboard of all the things you think are worth tracking.
Did anyone else experience anything if the O’Donnell video just as he was starting to talk about “the Nixon rule” in journalism and commentators? I tried a couple of times to get the sound on in that last section…. What was going on?
Thank You for your leadership, hard work, and dedication to American democracy!!! "Forward or Backward?" is a powerful, historical, red flag for each and every American. The fight for democracy, freedom, equality, and justice is never ending. You remind us of this every day. We are so grateful of your leadership!!!
What do you think of overwhelming NBC’s mailroom at 30 Rock with letters protesting Ronna McDaniel’s new contract … instead of ephemeral emails, or X protests - something physical, old-style, as in tens of thousands of letters.
We might also end subscriptions to NBC and Peacock in protest.
I understand NBC’s Carrie Budoff Brown, who’s had a meteoric rise in D.C. journalism circles, is responsible for the decision to hire Romney-McDaniel.
Simon: I’m all aboard the Hopium train. That being said, it’s hard to hear “our economy is strong” with no wage growth in a decade, interest rates almost triple what they were pre-pandemic, and grocery, gas and pharmaceutical prices just slaughtering lower and middle class people. And don’t even get me started on rent. How can we keep telling America the sky is green when they can look for themselves and see it is bright blue? Maybe the economy is good for the upper classes, but your average Jane is not experiencing this. She is hurting. She is not feeling this strong economy in her paycheck. She thinks this is all a bunch of malarky.
In our pursuit of being informed information warriors, I am posting links to two PoliticsGirl episodes with the same guest, Ahmed Baba. The first talks about the Heritage Foundation's blueprint, Project 2025, and is a couple of months old. The second is from her show last week about Trump's personal fever dream (aka "Agenda 47"):
They are both rather depressing to watch, but I think it is important for all of us to have a good grasp on exactly what is at stake with this election, so that we can work on waking up all the other people in our lives and convincing them of the importance to vote!
Would you, at some point, please provide a list of reasons why we can stop worrying about third parties? I know an uncomfortably large number of people who will refuse to vote for Biden because of the Gaza thing, and they say they will vote for a third party or they won't vote at all. I'd love very much to believe that they really aren't a threat, but I hunger for reasons to believe it so I can be truly convinced.
Blue Tsunami in Alabama last night! After losing by 7% in 2022, in a Huntsville district that Trump won, Mary Lands wins the Alabama special election by almost 25%. That’s a 32% swing!
.
But will the New York Times and the national election pundits give this result the weight it deserves? Don’t hold your breath. As real election expert Larry Sabato wryly observes:
"WARNING: These are just real election results, not headline-worthy polling data certified by the New York Times. Respected network pundits will disregard these actual votes and await the next batch of contrived polls."
Incredible essay. Vital for us to understand the trajectory we have taken over the past several decades as the guardrails of democracy have been slowly and deliberated eroded by one of our political parties. Here in our State people were enraged at what to many seemed like the inexplicable gutting of public education by our (Trump-sycophant) Governor and his slavish followers in the Legislature. The GOP majority first voted for a small (still inadequate) increase to the Base Student Allotment and then against, when the Governor vetoed it. Though the halls of Juneau's Capitol (very hard to get to, but people flew in) were filled with protestors, they cynically voted no to an override of the veto. The veto was upheld--by one vote. Legislators walked out through crowds of disappointed education supporters and those who voted with the Governor boasted. But...I think we may finally be beginning to see the results of the outrage that is following. And people are mad as hell here as it appears they are everywhere. May they vote in numbers too large to be questioned all over this country, in all the places where the polls are not registering how average communities are being gutted by GOP cruelty. Thanks again, Simon. Sharing.
Thank you for sharing these essays from earlier days. They performed a huge service then and now. They make clear the unshakeable truth that, using Stuart Stevens' title, "it was all a lie." "Limited govt", was not policy; it was code for "no govt services or role for anyone" who did not look like [a small group of] white men. They chose the "scapegoat path" in the service of their unlimited drive to aggrandize mortal fortune and power.
Polls are hard to interpret because there are so many different ones, they use different methodologies, and the current "trend" is determined by which poll cames out when.
To make this a bit more systematic, I focus just on the Morning Consult poll, which comes out weekly, has a large N and uses the same methodology each week. And the results over the last two months are striking: between Jan. 15 and Mar 24, Biden has seen an increase of *4 points* against Trump, from -3 to +1:
15-Jan -2
21-Jan -5
28-Jan -2
6-Feb -5
11-Feb -1
19-Feb -4
25-Feb -1
3-Mar 1
10-Mar -1
17-Mar 0
24-Mar 1
Why doesn't the Republican Party support Joe Biden? Joe Biden is where the Republican Party ought to be.
Simon: I love when you talk about the importance of looking at a broader set of data than just polls and consumer sentiment. I’d love to see a dashboard of all the things you think are worth tracking.
Did anyone else experience anything if the O’Donnell video just as he was starting to talk about “the Nixon rule” in journalism and commentators? I tried a couple of times to get the sound on in that last section…. What was going on?
Thank You for your leadership, hard work, and dedication to American democracy!!! "Forward or Backward?" is a powerful, historical, red flag for each and every American. The fight for democracy, freedom, equality, and justice is never ending. You remind us of this every day. We are so grateful of your leadership!!!
Simon:
What do you think of overwhelming NBC’s mailroom at 30 Rock with letters protesting Ronna McDaniel’s new contract … instead of ephemeral emails, or X protests - something physical, old-style, as in tens of thousands of letters.
We might also end subscriptions to NBC and Peacock in protest.
I understand NBC’s Carrie Budoff Brown, who’s had a meteoric rise in D.C. journalism circles, is responsible for the decision to hire Romney-McDaniel.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrie_Budoff_Brown
Write a letter; attach a page of Timothy Snyder’s “On Tyranny.”
Carrie Budoff Brown
30 Rockefeller Plaza
New York, NY 10112, United States.
Simon: I’m all aboard the Hopium train. That being said, it’s hard to hear “our economy is strong” with no wage growth in a decade, interest rates almost triple what they were pre-pandemic, and grocery, gas and pharmaceutical prices just slaughtering lower and middle class people. And don’t even get me started on rent. How can we keep telling America the sky is green when they can look for themselves and see it is bright blue? Maybe the economy is good for the upper classes, but your average Jane is not experiencing this. She is hurting. She is not feeling this strong economy in her paycheck. She thinks this is all a bunch of malarky.
In our pursuit of being informed information warriors, I am posting links to two PoliticsGirl episodes with the same guest, Ahmed Baba. The first talks about the Heritage Foundation's blueprint, Project 2025, and is a couple of months old. The second is from her show last week about Trump's personal fever dream (aka "Agenda 47"):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPgeg_Jij8c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW-NjxL5oUw
They are both rather depressing to watch, but I think it is important for all of us to have a good grasp on exactly what is at stake with this election, so that we can work on waking up all the other people in our lives and convincing them of the importance to vote!
An amazingly prescient analysis of our changing national politics. Thank you, Simon, for your leadership in these challenging times !
Black! I’ll go for blank cards. That way, you can tailor the message to the issue. I’ll think of something.
Would you, at some point, please provide a list of reasons why we can stop worrying about third parties? I know an uncomfortably large number of people who will refuse to vote for Biden because of the Gaza thing, and they say they will vote for a third party or they won't vote at all. I'd love very much to believe that they really aren't a threat, but I hunger for reasons to believe it so I can be truly convinced.
Dear Simon,
Thank you so much for your 2012 essay!
Blue Tsunami in Alabama last night! After losing by 7% in 2022, in a Huntsville district that Trump won, Mary Lands wins the Alabama special election by almost 25%. That’s a 32% swing!
.
But will the New York Times and the national election pundits give this result the weight it deserves? Don’t hold your breath. As real election expert Larry Sabato wryly observes:
"WARNING: These are just real election results, not headline-worthy polling data certified by the New York Times. Respected network pundits will disregard these actual votes and await the next batch of contrived polls."
.
Incredible essay. Vital for us to understand the trajectory we have taken over the past several decades as the guardrails of democracy have been slowly and deliberated eroded by one of our political parties. Here in our State people were enraged at what to many seemed like the inexplicable gutting of public education by our (Trump-sycophant) Governor and his slavish followers in the Legislature. The GOP majority first voted for a small (still inadequate) increase to the Base Student Allotment and then against, when the Governor vetoed it. Though the halls of Juneau's Capitol (very hard to get to, but people flew in) were filled with protestors, they cynically voted no to an override of the veto. The veto was upheld--by one vote. Legislators walked out through crowds of disappointed education supporters and those who voted with the Governor boasted. But...I think we may finally be beginning to see the results of the outrage that is following. And people are mad as hell here as it appears they are everywhere. May they vote in numbers too large to be questioned all over this country, in all the places where the polls are not registering how average communities are being gutted by GOP cruelty. Thanks again, Simon. Sharing.
Thank you for sharing these essays from earlier days. They performed a huge service then and now. They make clear the unshakeable truth that, using Stuart Stevens' title, "it was all a lie." "Limited govt", was not policy; it was code for "no govt services or role for anyone" who did not look like [a small group of] white men. They chose the "scapegoat path" in the service of their unlimited drive to aggrandize mortal fortune and power.