I think it aligns well with Simon's positive messaging. This was a post this morning on DemCast's Slack Channel. For those who are looking for material to share with their pro-democracy friends or to persuade those sceptical (or cynical) about politics, this could be a good source.
Thank you, Cheryl. I had not read this and it's great, spot-on! And thank you to all who gather at Hopium Chronicles, bad for my work productivity but good for my heart and soul!
I'm retired, so I have a lot of time to read and hang out with my peeps. I share this stuff with my receptive friends IRL. But one of my New Years Resolutions for 2024 is to amplify the Pro-democracy message any way I can. I don't do FB or X, so you guys, a few Slack groups and the Washington Post comment section will be the focus of a lot of the "gems" I discover.
It is a good piece. I don't entirely agree with it though. A couple of armchair experts quoting psychiatrists ( who I can tell you, as a retired therapist, are not the best people to explain political behavior, or human behavior in general; their wheelhouse is pathology, with a biological model; the best sources on human behavior are social workers, psychologists, and sociologists ). Instead, IMO, you talk to the folks who know what it takes to win elections, the Rick Wilsons of the world. To wit, almost no one votes on policies in general. On that score the Dems would win walking away. They do vote on fear, and yes, making people terrified of another trump administration is our best shot. We're not gonna win it by promising everyone a new pony. But we can tell people the truth; not just that we stand for SS and Medicare and women's choice, but that trump will attack all those things. We still hear pundits, and I heard them this morning, talking about how trump is evolving on abortion; this is BS. He has appointed judges that overturned Roe, and he will not stop there. I think we can walk and chew gum at the same time; we can use fear because, you know, it's the truth, while noting the positives about our side. It is difficult in a media environment though, where trump is given deference for "evolving" on abortion. I mean really....the other day he was bragging about overturning Roe. Thank you for linking to that article.
Trump is a loser in all aspects of his life. He exemplifies the first part of the Twainism "You can fool some of the people some of the time...." and in Trump's case it's getting to be fewer and fewer. ......
IMO, the most salient point for us to focus on is the hugh loss the Trump suffered in 2020. Joe Biden got 81 million votes, Trump got 74 million votes. ........
So what are the real chances Trump can reverse this outcome in 2024? I would say they are ZERO!!! ...... Disregarding today's minimally predictive polls as fantasy journalism, let's think about the 160 million likely voters in 2024. Can anyone in this newsletter describe a significant voter shift from Biden to Trump? .........
Does anyone know voters who are so alarmed about Biden's age or his Middle East policy they'll either vote for Trump or not vote? I don't. Many voters are concerned about these issues but that concern won't drive them to Trump. ..........
On the other hand, can anyone describe where Biden is likely to pickup a lot (millions) of votes? Consider these:
..........
How do we think new young (18-25) voters will vote?
...........
Which way will the majority of America's 30-35% of voters who register as Independents vote?
........ How will the Never Trumpers vote?
.........
In these groups, Biden has the potential to pickup 8-12 million votes. Trump maybe 2-3 million.
.......
My final questions are about lost votes. Which candidate will lose more voters to natural mortality?
.......
Which candiddate will lose more voters because they're repelled by both candidates and sit out 2024? .......
From where we sit now, we should be jumping for joy and speaking with great confidence about Biden's prospects in 2024; not just to win, but win in a LANDSLIDE with 88-90 million votes!! Too many of us are still traumatized by the 2016 Hillary/Trump debacle. For so many reasons, 2024 will not be 2016.
I would say the majority of Never Trumpers will vote for Biden. Let's say 60% Biden, 30% no vote, 10% 3rd party.
My logic is the same as Simon's. Never Trumpers want a responsible, functioning president. However, some of those might think Biden is just too liberal to voter for so they will leave their presidential choice
Happy to see President Biden's campaign confidently on offense. His message on social media today: "They showed me the clip of Trump saying he wanted the economy to crash so he could gain politically. Says he doesn’t want to be Hoover. Here's the thing: He already is. He’s the first President since Hoover to lose jobs while in office. Some record."
Dems have slight edge in the Tom Keen,D-35, Fl House race.
Numbers below in Google doc as of yesterday( Jan 10). Volunteer opportunities also listed !!! 📲🏃🏻♀️
Orlando Sentinel reporting today Republicans pouring cash into this race as Keen’s “stop the woke”( and current school board member) opponent refuses to be interviewed!
Boy what a morning....BBC showing the latest meme...it's NOT the economy stupid, and all the good news in the world may not help Joe. Then get up to a rerun of Seve Kornacki droning on about MI polls showing trump up 8 and Liz Cheney and others up even more.....and Israel....too early to start drinking....and went to bed seeing a clip of trump spouting word salad about COVID and China and tariffs....how could anyone be considering this idiot for anything? He's no more coherent than a right wing drunk on a fishing boat. Maybe less. And definitely more unhinged. The drunk will sober up eventually. Donald doesn't drink.....
Simon, again, thanks for the work you do. you’ve helped my stress levels for the past four years. After being introduced through the brothers I have closely watched your predictions and if I am ever questioning polls, i turn first to you to see the REAL news. Thrilled to be a part of this community, was this what you were suggesting over on X for chat? Have a great weekend.
I posted this link this morning to Simon's post from yesterday, but I think it is worth a repeat for those who already read yesterday's post:
Be Us, Not Them: https://reframingamerica.substack.com/p/be-us-not-them
I think it aligns well with Simon's positive messaging. This was a post this morning on DemCast's Slack Channel. For those who are looking for material to share with their pro-democracy friends or to persuade those sceptical (or cynical) about politics, this could be a good source.
Thank you, Cheryl. I had not read this and it's great, spot-on! And thank you to all who gather at Hopium Chronicles, bad for my work productivity but good for my heart and soul!
I'm retired, so I have a lot of time to read and hang out with my peeps. I share this stuff with my receptive friends IRL. But one of my New Years Resolutions for 2024 is to amplify the Pro-democracy message any way I can. I don't do FB or X, so you guys, a few Slack groups and the Washington Post comment section will be the focus of a lot of the "gems" I discover.
Speaking of which:
https://davidpepper.substack.com/p/2024-opportunity-slaying-ohios-gerrymander
It is a good piece. I don't entirely agree with it though. A couple of armchair experts quoting psychiatrists ( who I can tell you, as a retired therapist, are not the best people to explain political behavior, or human behavior in general; their wheelhouse is pathology, with a biological model; the best sources on human behavior are social workers, psychologists, and sociologists ). Instead, IMO, you talk to the folks who know what it takes to win elections, the Rick Wilsons of the world. To wit, almost no one votes on policies in general. On that score the Dems would win walking away. They do vote on fear, and yes, making people terrified of another trump administration is our best shot. We're not gonna win it by promising everyone a new pony. But we can tell people the truth; not just that we stand for SS and Medicare and women's choice, but that trump will attack all those things. We still hear pundits, and I heard them this morning, talking about how trump is evolving on abortion; this is BS. He has appointed judges that overturned Roe, and he will not stop there. I think we can walk and chew gum at the same time; we can use fear because, you know, it's the truth, while noting the positives about our side. It is difficult in a media environment though, where trump is given deference for "evolving" on abortion. I mean really....the other day he was bragging about overturning Roe. Thank you for linking to that article.
From an eternal Optimist:
Trump is a loser in all aspects of his life. He exemplifies the first part of the Twainism "You can fool some of the people some of the time...." and in Trump's case it's getting to be fewer and fewer. ......
IMO, the most salient point for us to focus on is the hugh loss the Trump suffered in 2020. Joe Biden got 81 million votes, Trump got 74 million votes. ........
So what are the real chances Trump can reverse this outcome in 2024? I would say they are ZERO!!! ...... Disregarding today's minimally predictive polls as fantasy journalism, let's think about the 160 million likely voters in 2024. Can anyone in this newsletter describe a significant voter shift from Biden to Trump? .........
Does anyone know voters who are so alarmed about Biden's age or his Middle East policy they'll either vote for Trump or not vote? I don't. Many voters are concerned about these issues but that concern won't drive them to Trump. ..........
On the other hand, can anyone describe where Biden is likely to pickup a lot (millions) of votes? Consider these:
..........
How do we think new young (18-25) voters will vote?
...........
Which way will the majority of America's 30-35% of voters who register as Independents vote?
........ How will the Never Trumpers vote?
.........
In these groups, Biden has the potential to pickup 8-12 million votes. Trump maybe 2-3 million.
.......
My final questions are about lost votes. Which candidate will lose more voters to natural mortality?
.......
Which candiddate will lose more voters because they're repelled by both candidates and sit out 2024? .......
From where we sit now, we should be jumping for joy and speaking with great confidence about Biden's prospects in 2024; not just to win, but win in a LANDSLIDE with 88-90 million votes!! Too many of us are still traumatized by the 2016 Hillary/Trump debacle. For so many reasons, 2024 will not be 2016.
“How will the Never Trumpers vote”. Simon points to this group a lot. I think this group is growing by the day.
I would say the majority of Never Trumpers will vote for Biden. Let's say 60% Biden, 30% no vote, 10% 3rd party.
My logic is the same as Simon's. Never Trumpers want a responsible, functioning president. However, some of those might think Biden is just too liberal to voter for so they will leave their presidential choice
blank on their ballot.
I think that sounds right.
That's a big number for Biden.
Happy to see President Biden's campaign confidently on offense. His message on social media today: "They showed me the clip of Trump saying he wanted the economy to crash so he could gain politically. Says he doesn’t want to be Hoover. Here's the thing: He already is. He’s the first President since Hoover to lose jobs while in office. Some record."
Amen!
Really proud of Virginia....love seeing history unfold in positive and uplifting ways 😊🇺🇸
Dems have slight edge in the Tom Keen,D-35, Fl House race.
Numbers below in Google doc as of yesterday( Jan 10). Volunteer opportunities also listed !!! 📲🏃🏻♀️
Orlando Sentinel reporting today Republicans pouring cash into this race as Keen’s “stop the woke”( and current school board member) opponent refuses to be interviewed!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vz-DGKmGkqumWR9c-DVCqgasxOuMxmSBBwZI7qKLfR0/edit#gid=18227111
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2024/01/11/republicans-pour-cash-into-state-house-special-election-next-week/
Boy what a morning....BBC showing the latest meme...it's NOT the economy stupid, and all the good news in the world may not help Joe. Then get up to a rerun of Seve Kornacki droning on about MI polls showing trump up 8 and Liz Cheney and others up even more.....and Israel....too early to start drinking....and went to bed seeing a clip of trump spouting word salad about COVID and China and tariffs....how could anyone be considering this idiot for anything? He's no more coherent than a right wing drunk on a fishing boat. Maybe less. And definitely more unhinged. The drunk will sober up eventually. Donald doesn't drink.....
Simon, again, thanks for the work you do. you’ve helped my stress levels for the past four years. After being introduced through the brothers I have closely watched your predictions and if I am ever questioning polls, i turn first to you to see the REAL news. Thrilled to be a part of this community, was this what you were suggesting over on X for chat? Have a great weekend.