235 Comments

Q. Why did the chicken cross the road?

A. So he wouldn’t have to debate Kamala Harris again.

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I read this aloud to my husband and are both still laughing!

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Me too. Rotfling

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🤣

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Love it!

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😂😂

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Love this so much!! So does everyone I just sent it to...thanks for the LOL!!

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This belongs in the pantheon of immortal political jokes! 😂🤣😂🤣😂

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Are newly registered voters and first time voter considered “likely” voters? In other words, do these new polls give any weight to newly registered and first time voters?

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Polls all use different methodology to decide what proportion of people will vote. Each poll will incorporate this, or not, differently.

This is one of the reasons polling can miss. The model didn’t match the actual breakdown of the electorate that showed up. E.g. They didn’t account for a surge in x demographic voting.

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I keep asking this question. "There is a consensus in the polling community that it is better to report 'likely' voters than 'registered' voters".

Here in Florida, we do not have hard evidence, but I think we will have a surge in "new" registrations. I check with the state election office, but the last data was entered August 31, and will not be updated until the end of this month. VAT registers new voters and the feeling here is that we are far out registering Republicans. In my county, there are more no party registrations than Republicans.

We think 500,000 Haitian voters can swamp Trump.

My latest substack... . https://danielsolomon.substack.com/p/more-smart-money/comments

Betting odds average today... RCP Average Harris 52.4 Trump 46.1

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I doubt that newly registered are being contacted. And just how many voters are pollsters able to contact? I think that there is going to be a larger voter turnout for Harris than expected. I laughed when I heard a comment by someone in NC that the Democratic ground game is so large that volunteers are bumping into each other as they do their rounds! And that is probably true in many of the swing states while the Trump campaign has virtually no ground game.

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I absolutely agree with you. Who are these people they’re polling.? I have never been contacted nor anyone I know has EVER been polled

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I also think that few if any of the questionnaires account for the Jan 6 issue.

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I agree! I think this election will have elevated democratic voter turn out like Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg described and predicted in Kansas in 2022 just weeks after Dobbs. The abortion referendum there won by 18 points…much higher than the predicted 1% margin of error:) Still , like Walz says, we’re not going to let up on the gas until November 6!

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This is true!

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Moreno: Moronic comment!! She said it!

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Big shoutout to Simon and everyone here for being an example to do more.

Feels good to have voted already and confirm with the Secretary of State’s website that the ballot was accepted.

In previous years, I would have been satisfied that I did my part. Not this year. This year I’m being much more generous with both my time and money. Writing postcards, learning to phone bank, and rallying friends and family to do the same.

My gut is this is going to be a surprising over performance of the polls by democrats. Ive seen that many people are doing the same (or far more). This enthusiasm isn’t picked up in the polls because they have to make educated guesses about turnout.

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I think (and hope) that might be right. The Harvard poll that just came out about 18-29 voters with a +30 margin for Harris (or something in that range) is unlikely to be accounted for in the polls. If the campaign can get those voters out in large numbers, I expect we will over perform the polls.

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Agree. Also, there seems to be a lack of enthusiasm by Republican voters in that same age group. Overall, the numbers may be similar to 2020, but I expect it to be more Democratic than in the past.

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I'm hoping the youth enthusiasm and Dem enthusiasm is more like 2008 than 2020. In 2008 it was off the charts. I think there is evidence to suggest that is happening again. Then we might really wipe them out.

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Ben H

This part of your comment

“In previous years, I would have been satisfied that I did my part [voting]. Not this year. This year I’m being much more generous with both my time and money” — resonates with me. Simon and this community and the “reckoning“ of this moment in our body politic…has given me an entirely changed mindset. My resources of time and money and energy are humble, but here’s what I’m doing/have done/ will do:

—prepped vote reg/info info for 2 brand new voters in my circle

—joined HC as paid subscriber

—gave 3 gift subscriptions

—set up monthly auto debits to support Harris/Walz

—signed up for ballot curing in PA Oct 7 & 14

—& of course, voting on day one here in Ohio, October 8. Will go to the courthouse in person

—and obviously, read this newsletter daily and obsessively, especially these awesome comment threads. I learn so much!

Simon calls it a virtuous cycle. Another descriptor is positive feedback loop. There is so much value and integrity building in this space & nation wide!

We usually underestimate the power of the thoughts we allow into the mind—this is more consequential than we might suppose! Our thoughts need to be curated, and with deep draughts of critical thinking. I am profoundly grateful to be motivated and connected to this amazing community. Thank you Simon for being our inspiring leader and political therapist!

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The GOP is a zombie political party. It's like the movie "Death of Stalin" where everyone is afraid to raise their hands until they get a sense of what everyone else is going to do. It's pointless to wait for them to ever change course because what you do is double down and go more extreme.

Even MTG is finding out that she's being outflanked by Loomer.

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"Get to 55 – by reaching 80!"

The best way to get Kamala Harris to 55 percent, is to ensure 80-percent turnout of Democrats and democracy-defending Independents and Republicans. If Minnesota was able to reach 80 percent turnout in 2020, we should be able to achieve 80 percent turnout of Democrats in every swing state in this critical 2024 election – the most important in recent American history!

80 percent Dem turnout means a massive Blue Wave! Let’s do this!

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I’d love it if everyone else took the same civic engagement as MN.

Part of it is that we make it really easy to vote. Over a month of early voting, same day registration, etc. all contribute to our turnout.

The other part is cultural and we can build that culture of voting other places.

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In 2024, there is absolutely no excuse for the dismal national average of 67 percent that we saw in 2020. It’s unfathomable to me that some pundits brag about this.

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You’re absolutely right about the miserable turnout we have here. I’m attributing it partly to the lack of civics being taught in our schools.

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Much of our lower turnout comes from the remarkable barriers we put up to voting in the US. Few countries have "voter registration," and our highly decentralized voting system and need to re-register causes people in our mobile society to miss registration deadlines. If we had things like universal same day voter registration or even got rid of registration altogether and had a truly national election our turn out rates would continue to climb and probably start to match other countries. Remember that in many states the ONLY TIME YOU CANNOT REGISTER is right before an election at the time of maximum interest. It is a system designed to discourage rather than encourage participation which is why all these new measures that make it easier to vote are having such an impact on turnout.

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Aren’t registration and turnout percentage (of registered voters) two separate things?

I agree with the absurdity of having any need for voter registration. For US citizens, it should be automatic when getting a driver’s license, or, better yet, automatic upon turning 18.

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LOVE THIS, keep hitting all your networks HARD to VOTE ON DAY ONE. We heard you, Simon!!!!

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I think voting should be mandatory. And made easier like in Australia where you can just walk in off the street and vote. Of course you’d need ID but not ridiculous ID like the republicans want to enforce .

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I live in Dakota County, Minnesota. The turnout of registered voters here in this county was 93% in 2020, one of the highest in the country. That was partly due to the RNC being arrogant enough to consider MN -2, represented by Angie Craig, a democrat, to be a flippable district. (As it turned out, not so much! Lost it, big time and it was the most expensive Congressional race in the Country.)

It is also due to MN having same day voter registration, a long early voting period, a program that allows high school students to “pre register,” and be automatically be registered when they turn 18 and lots of accessible polling places. All of that matters. Make voting accessible and easy, and people show up for democracy! Let’s do this!!

The overall turnout of registered voters here has been as high as 89% in a presidential year election in my lifetime. (Think Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale). It was definitely a point of pride as we competed - hard - with Iowa for bragging rights on turnout.

I literally can’t wait to see the turnout this year - people are pumped with Walz being the VP pick. I’m hoping it will be 85% or more and that the gains will be in the rural districts where there are just a ton of infrastructure projects underway, thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act. Our Teamsters local has endorsed Harris/Walz and been campaigning hard - teachers are unionized here in MN and Walz is known as a union guy. That matters.

Fingers crossed that this is a blowout and we reach Simon’s 55%!

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Great post!

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Thank you Sheila!

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This does not have to do with the polling discussed here, but I just saw a CNN poll showing Harris up by only 10 points with women over Trump…

1) Polling is making me crazy

2) Overall (polling average), where is Harris concerning the gender gap.

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I call bullshit. Definitely an outlier poll

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I'm getting closer to not paying a bit of attention anymore. The same page has contradictory articles. They're both up and down at the same time. Good news - and bad- for both at the same time in different articles. I've got reaction whiplash.

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So true. I tell myself stop looking at the polls ... and then I look. I don't go to 538 very often but the headlines suck me in.

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The red wave taught us something. Democrats will believe any poll, no matter how ludicrous, if it looks bad for them. “80% of democrats think Trump is cooler than Jesus? Oh shit!”that said, a 10-point advantage with women for a candidate with a 4-point lead in a polarized country is not unbelievable. It looks like what I’ve seen elsewhere. So it’s probably correct. But I’ll happily take a double digit lead with women, who vote at higher rates than men.

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WASHINGTON MONTHLY GENDER GAP TRACKER

SEPTEMBER 19 EDITION

GENDER GAP: 18.2 (change from last week: down 0.9)

GENDER GAP TILT: Harris +4.5 (3.8-point shift toward Harris)

OVERALL AVERAGE

Harris: 49.5

Trump: 46.6

Margin: Harris +2.8 (2-point shift toward Harris)

FEMALE AVERAGE

Harris: 53.5

Trump: 42.2

Margin: Harris +11.4 (1.5-point shift toward Harris)

MALE AVERAGE

Trump: 51.6

Harris: 44.8

Margin: Trump +6.8 (2.4-point shift toward Harris)

(Note: Numbers don’t add up exactly because of rounding.)

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/09/19/harris-rebounds-in-week-3-of-the-gender-gap-tracker/

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Agreed, it's like the kid in school- and I count myself on this category - who'll panic every time some smartass or bully cries wolf just to get a rise out them.

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Either way, I wouldn't get too fixated on it

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Trump's rant to entice women voters is beyond creepy....it literally made my flesh crawl. His promise to make us feel safe and protected? I feel every red flag going up as I check to make sure my pepper spray is handy...

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Hi all, quick announcement, “Postcards to Swing States” is accepting more volunteers again. They have upped their target total postcards to be sent out to 40 million, now targeting Florida and other Democrat House candidates. I signed up to do 200 more. Here’s the link if you’re interested, https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/

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I received their email this morning – immediately signed up to write more cards.

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YEAH!!!!! That’s what I’m talking about!

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I just clicked on the link but am reluctant to commit to 200 postcards, do you know when their send by dates are?

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Yes, the mailing dates are between Oct 24 and Oct 29

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Thanks! That makes it doable

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I've got 200 for NC that we're working on. Question for folks doing these particular postcards. Which of the 3 options for the content of the message are you picking? I've never felt entirely comfortable with option 1, but they claim it's the most effective. Would y'all be willing to share what you're choosing and why? Also, what's their evidence that this particular approach has generated the additional dem votes they claim? Don't get me wrong, I'm signed up and I'm doing the work on this, but I would like the info if others have it.

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I am doing option one. I went with what they said was the most effective. I add some capital letters, change the ink color to make it more dynamic, and add a thanks and smiley face at the end to sound more friendly. I wanted to add "vote early" but since the mailing date is 10/24 that doesn't make sense. Plus, I am a rule follower when it comes to election strategy.

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I'm doing 200 to NC too! Having a postcarding neighbor party tonight! I always do option one -- they say its the most effective and who am I to say it's not. That said, they're prob all good.

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I am a rule follower as well. I went with option 1 - plus it was the shortest message - easier on the wrist. Also, I am more inclined to read an entire message if it's short. So, I figure same goes for other people.

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I went with the Friends and Family option. Not sure what # that is. I'm a little woo woo when it comes to this stuff. If the message makes me feel "cringey" then I believe the card carries that energy. So I chose the message that made me feel joyful and happy. I figure they give us three options for a reason.

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Oh, I don't think you're woo-woo! I totally feel the same way about intuition and energy. I just finished my 575th postcard tonight and have hundreds to go. If I forced myself to write something I didn't believe in, my handwriting would be illegible, I'd use up all my correction tape, and it'd take me hours longer to finish! Always go with joy, and you can't go wrong!

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I chose the friends and family option because no matter how I thought about the first choice, I couldn't feel good about it (and TBH, I'd be annoyed if I received it), and that energy would come through my writing. Anyway, I also add (after I asked them if I could) "Your voice matters!" at the end, with a thank-you and my first name.

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Donna ... I feel that we are kindreds!" I write the same thing at the end of my cards. Or sometimes I write "Remember: Every vote and every voice matters"

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Yes!!! I think it's a nice personal touch. :-}

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I too went with the message that felt most natural for me as the sender; that is option #3, the "friends and family" message. As they say about this message, I am hoping that this verbage does encourage "both the recipient and their networks to vote".

I also added the Early Voting dates for NC (Oct 17 - Nov 2) to encourage them to vote asap and not necessarily wait until the final day of voting (as Simon describes it), Nov 5. The date for mailing the 300 post cards to NC that I'm writing is OCTOBER 15

Just a personal opinion, I didn't care for the wording in #1 - "...whether you vote is public record." I don't see how that is an encouraging message.

I hope this helps, Maurice! Kudos to you for joining in on the postcarding effort!

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I’m going with no. 1 since they said it’s most effective. If I’m going to the trouble of writing all these, I want the one that works best. They’ve done pretty thorough studies on all this. However, if you’re uncomfortable with that one, well that’s why they give you 3 options. Go with what feels right for you. I’m sure the time and effort and sincerity you put into each card will be imparted to each recipient.

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Thanks for posting this. I just signed up for 200 as well. Cheers!

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Thanks for this. I signed up for 200 and made a donation to their site. Will not ship til last week in Oct? I suppose the list will include Dems who have not voted. Asked if I’m willing to address Social Security which I replied affirmatively, only the greatest poverty fighting program in history.

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Thank you for emphasizing Harris’ abortion speech and Valenti’s commentary. There was not enough coverage by corporate media of this important speech.

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The Vice President is going back to AZ late this week. Then NV. A sign that she is taking the fight to the southwest.

Gift link:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/kamala-harris-border-arizona-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.NE4.yxi9.sQ-t5eNUVR4J&smid=url-share

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CNN embarrassing itself again with stupid questions (if Donald Trump has an advantage on immigration in the polling, he suggests, shouldn’t she shut up about it?) and insisting on an outlier poll from Arizona rather than the polling average as representing reality.

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Yep. Very cringey commentary by the commentator there. Really seem to be taking cues from the NYT on both-siding things.

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Fuckin eh!

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Question: Nationally, the Teamsters has 1.3 million members. What’s the total membership number of the Teamsters unions that have endorsed Harris? If I remember correctly, it had passed one million – but that was before this weekend.

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Yes, over one million Teamsters represented by about two dozen local and councils have backed Harris https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2024-election/teamsters-locals-back-kamala-harris/ and in the last two days every IBT Union in Florida (40,093 members) endorsed Harris. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/697585-every-teamsters-union-in-florida-backs-kamala-harris-for-president/ I like the Teamsters' video in support of Harris. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0E_CtabxhQ

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Total IBT membership is 1.3 million. There are more members of Teacher's Unions. NEA is the largest union in the US, with three million members, and are supporting Harris-Walz too. https://www.nea.org/about-nea/media-center/press-releases/national-education-association-recommends-vice-president-kamala-harris-president

American Teacher's Federation was the first union to endorse Kamala Harris, 1.8 million members. https://www.aft.org/news/aft-votes-endorse-kamala-harris-president

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MSNBC just had a show on, which I just turned off because they were about to discuss the nat'l Teamsters' lack of endorsement and how that could mean Harris's support among white working-class men is soft and what's she gonna do about it. (I won't mention the name of the show bc I like the host, but damn, why don't they leave that stuff to CNN?)

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@Donna PG - I used to love MSNBC, but I too turn it off more than I watch a complete show. The only host who hasn’t compromised (imho) is Lawrence O’Donnell. All the rest piled on Joe after his debate. So you’re not alone in your exasperation. It’s no wonder independent media outlets (Crooked, Meidas Touch, TYT, and new ones) have several hundreds of thousands of subscribers. I think MSM, like the R Party, is undergoing a fundamental realignment. Thank you for your comment. You’re not alone.

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Thanks, Kathy! I totally agree about Lawrence; he's been my favorite for a while now, and introduced me to Simon, for which I am incredibly grateful! And indie media is where it's at these days. Corp media is losing viewers like us in droves. A few years ago (after Jeff Zucker left) I abandoned CNN, and even MSNBC is getting to me. We have to pick and choose what we let in to our lives, and I'm just grateful we have so much good stuff online to keep us informed w/o making us crazy!

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I don't like to ask people to comment on other commentators here, but i made the mistake of watching a recent video with James Carville & Al Hunt (Politicon channel) and they have a decidedly more negative take than Simon does. Was wondering if you, Simon, or anyone else reading this, had thoughts on their take. Is it just they are outdated in the way they look at the numbers? Do they rely too much on bad polls? just curious on thoughts behind the difference in takes

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I heard part of that. Carville has been a wet blanket for months, along with David Axelrod. I. listen to a lot so I may be mistaken, but I think they had Michael Podhorzer on recently, and he thought they were a little too negative; he thought Harris could win with as little as 2.5% of the popular vote, due to various changes.

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Because they’re not happy unless you’re not happy. They’ve been saying the same thing for a year. When the polls shifted and the data changed, they kept on saying the same thing. It’s got nothing to do with data.

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Hi Erin, Carville does though think Harris will win.

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This is true

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I found Carville out of touch. I stopped listening to him a while ago.

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He is - way out of touch. The guy hasn’t done anything since 1992 - way past his expiration date. I wouldn’t put much stock in his takes - just a negative guy that’s frustrated the game long ago passed him by.

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Well he said it in the conversation. He always runs scared, and always assumes he is down.

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You lost me at James Carville. Sorry.

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I just saw a YouTube clip of Carville on CNN (posted yesterday) with his always-abrasive (though occasionally charming) spouse, and James told Anderson that he just has a feeling that Harris will win, and it won't be close. So...???

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OMFG I listened to that speech about how he'll be our protector. He'd need protection from me kicking him you know where. I never before listened to him for longer than a few seconds. That whine... THE LIES! Any woman who votes for Trump needs her head examined. (I'm a woman.)

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If Trump is your protector, you need look no further to see the rapist in the room!

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A couple of channels pop up frequently on my Youtube side bar with headlines like this: BREAKING: TRUMP MAY HAVE ALREADY WON THE ELECTION, EVEN LOOKING AT LEFT-LEANING INACCURATE POLLSTERS

These guys are citing polling data, but from a different universe than anything else most of us are seeing. Where is this hopium for Maga's originating?

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Russia

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They’re pulling that data from a place where the sun never shines.

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🤣

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I am seeing a lot of trump regalia these days here in NJ. It is perturbing. I did see a slew of Harris signs in Metuchen NJ....known as the Brainy Borough....then I had to go into a taxidermy shop and it was back across enemy lines again.....

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I joined a bicycling group in the northern Adirondacks over the weekend ( I live on the other side of Lake Champlain in Vermont) and saw a lot of Elise (Stefanik) and Trump signs plastered on mainly dilapidated properties. It seems those that can afford Trumpism the least, support him the most.

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It's the YouTube algorithm recommending punditry - including propaganda junk - based on your searches. If you're so inclined, I'd highly recommend clicking the little side dots in whatever channels keep getting recommended in the side bar & promptly selecting the "don't recommend channel" option. There's prob at least 2 dozen channels I've told YouTube to stop pushing on me. Saved me so many chest pains, panic attacks & possible noise complaints over the last year, especially after the media's "Biden's Age" fetish started. I'd be curious what these channels are called.

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