73 Comments
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Patrick's avatar

Hoping for a good result and Orban leaves. I think we should assume Gabbard is trying to use our intelligence agencies to help Orban, and the next Congress will need to hold her feet to the fire. Trump will fire her once Orban loses.

Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

Thanks, Simon, for supporting the Virginia phonebanks. Trump was in Virginia yesterday and is ranting about Gov. Spanberger today. The Republicans know if they lose the Virginia redistricting vote it will be even more difficult for them to retain the House.

I don't usually call my representatives on the weekend, but today I called Congressman Raskin to thank him for writing a letter to the WH physician demanding information on Trump's mental and physical decline. I also called Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to ask them to do the same in the Senate. I'm writing postcards to NC voters today.

ArcticStones's avatar

HUNGARY: Apropos that poll by of Hungarian voters by McLaughlin & Associates (by coincidence one of Trump’s favorite pollsters), which claims Orbán’s Fidesz party is 5.3 points ahead of Péter Magyar’s opposition Tisza party…

REALITY CHECK #1: In 2014, McLaughlin had Eric Cantor (House Majority Leader) ahead by 34 points. A few weeks later, Cantor lost the Republican primary by 11 points. That’s a 45-point miss!

REALITY CHECK #2: In an industry full of bad actors, McLaughlin still holds the crown for simply having one of the largest, most absurd and epicly-wrong misses of all time. (And the Cantor poll is one of many big misses.)

REALITY CHECK #3: Because of McLaughlin repeatedly proving itself to be wildly unreliable, the DailyKos Election team banned McLaughlin from their Digest in 2021.

BOTTOM LINE: Most other pollsters have the opposition Tisza Party ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz by 20 points or more.

.

PS. Most likely, McLaughlin’s Hungary poll seems designed to give Viktor Orbán ammunition to claim “election fraud” in case he loses tomorrow’s election.

Thomas's avatar

As a European...

It's going to be tough.

Hopeful, but also realistic and clear-eyed at the size of the task.

Maybe I am just being overly pessimistic.

One thing is for sure though, a defeat for Orban will be absolutely seismic, hard to overstate that.

ArcticStones's avatar

As a fellow European, I couldn’t agree more.

Marcia G's avatar

One of the advantages of access to these comments is the opportunity to learn from many of the frequent commentators, Arctic chief among them. So thanks for this info about McLaughlin.

ArcticStones's avatar

Thank you for your kind words!

Lyn Gerry's avatar

Couldn't agree more!

Betsy's avatar

Good to know! Thanks.

KBH's avatar

HUGE congrats to our plucky Hopium patriots who reached 5,000 VA voters in one phone bank session!!! That great news lifted my spirits this morning. Hoping we get similar good news from Hungary's vote tomorrow--out with the dictators, in with a return to democracy--in Hungary and here.

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

Excellent analysis - and as always the great Dr. Snyder is so enlightening & informative, as is Applebaum.

On another note, please check out HCR’s interview w NJ’s own Sen Kim. He came back to DC earlier this week bc he felt so strongly that that was where he belonged. I wish more electeds had followed his lead. We need to demand moral clarity from our electeds if we are to fight this battle successfully. They need to realize that we are all on the same side, and are just different divisions of the same army.

https://www.youtube.com/live/qJ2KmH2hXy8?si=3SOhTS0NsFPD8pE5

Off to take in some baseball on this lovely spring day. Keep going!

MrsCQ's avatar

You are tireless. Enjoy your baseball break.

Fisher's avatar

never...i'm a soccer guy...:)

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

I love soccer too! I just despise FIFA.

ArcticStones's avatar

I insist on calling it Football – proper Football!

(As opposed to American Carryball.)

MrsCQ's avatar

Not to nitpick while nitpicking, it's actually fútbol. ⚽️ 😉

Fisher's avatar

thanks for that link....it's a great day to get the garden beds ready too....also opener of trout season in nj, but i never go on opening day. i'm retired. monday morning i will have the local spots to myself.

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

Well it was DC United when I lived in DC. Prolly the US women's team for the foreseeable future.

SW's avatar

remember when he cleaned up the Capitol after Jan 6 finally cleared; what a star of a human being!

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

yes, and that is not at all out of character for him. He just does stuff like that bc it's who he is. I was fortunate to volunteer on his original campaign for the House back in 2018, when he won by 3K votes. He was a newbie campaigner back then, but little did we know the force he would become.

SW's avatar
Apr 12Edited

wow! so great that you volunteered on his first campaign! Much distress at the destruction right now, but I also look at who and what is building - one thing we're losing - I hope - is the Epstein class, and we're building a future that has Hopium and Sen Kim, and his cohorts

Blake's avatar

God willing Orban truly does lose and is ousted!

Blake's avatar

We need this blow to Trump and Vance with Orban’s hopeful loss 🙏.

Madam Geoffrin's avatar

The Iranian video was extremely well done, using their intended purpose as the gauge. Yes, it’s horrifically anti-Semitic but so is their regime. That Trump was so easily manipulated by Netanyahu is down right scary.

I recommend reading Dan Pfeiffer’s piece. I find it consistent with Simon’s message. The rules of engagement are changing. Democrats best wake up.

https://messagebox.substack.com/p/the-counterproductive-campaign-against?r=366pw4&utm_medium=ios

Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

I have to admit that I did laugh at the bruised hands on the Leggo Trump.

Lewis J Greenwald's avatar

HERE IS TO THE DEFEAT OR ORBAN AND THE REMOVAL OF tRUMP AND HIS ENTIRE CABINET!!!

THIS IS WAR AND WE ALL NEED TO FIGHT LIKE THE LIVES OF GRANDCHILDREN DEPEND ON IT!!!

EVERYONE MUST PARTICIPATE IN THE GENERAL STRIKE ON MAY 1ST - THIS CROWD ONLY UNDERSTANDS $$$

Sun's avatar
Apr 11Edited

I’m just glad that Vance didn’t visit The Vatican.

Michael G Baer's avatar

I was hoping he would visit Putin... or maybe his superpowers don't impact evil. lol

Sun's avatar

5.3 points, they just put that decimal in to look credible, I bet.

Jenny Ellsworth's avatar

Yeah, or maybe they don’t know anything about sig figs.

John Payne's avatar

Thanks for the articles on the importance of Hungary. Maddening that a right-wing pollster (or “pollster”) is involved, but of course that’s how they roll. I hope, as stated, the victory is so resounding that the cheating won’t matter.

I participated in last Thursdays VA phonebank and am signed up for next Thursday. I’m not a natural and always start off clumsily reading the script, but I find that as I make more calls I start to relax and then real, human connection is more likely. Can be very rewarding. And these calls are relatively easy because they’re directed at likely “yes” voters, just giving them a reminder, encouragement, and any needed info. And one of the best parts of Phonebanking is the debriefing at the end - hearing stories of people’s positive calls. One I recall from Thursday was about a woman who had moved out of state, but still wanted information so that she could share it with her parents who were still in Virginia. Another was about a person in a senior living facility who had not yet received any information about the election. Really inspiring positive experience.

Liz 🌻's avatar

Saw interview of James Martian FI 21 running against Mast. Bobby Jones a naval veteran interviewed James from the Coast Guard and National Security background. Impressive man, I think in his 30’s. Tried to look for polling. Any chance he could win??

Bonnilu Lair's avatar

Hi Liz, I live in CD 21, and right now there are 4 Dems primarying (a 5th is listed, but not sure if she is still running). There's also one Repub primarying Mast - the guy is even more right-wing than Brian, if you can imagine. There are two NPs running in the general.

There has been no polling, I don't expect any soon. Yes, I like James Martin also. Does he have a chance? It will be a heavy lift for anyone because Mast is so entrenched.

Liz 🌻's avatar

Thanks @Bonnilu Lair

David Krupp's avatar

Help make the BLUE WAVE comes on NOV. 3, 2026 by asking all your friends and family to vote for the Democrats. Contribute to: www.senatemajority.comhttp://www.dscc.org

https://dccc.orghttps://www.thehousemajortypac.com

Michael G Baer's avatar

or to Hopium sponsored campaign efforts.

SW's avatar

please stop; we are not a bulletin board

John Payne's avatar

No thanks. All my donations related to national politics are now made exclusively through the Hopium links. They’re vetted by an experienced political consultant I trust, and help strengthen this community and Hopium’s impact. Why not start your own Substack and make your pitch there?

David Krupp's avatar

NATO and the EU should have kicked Orban out years ago!

kitkatmia's avatar

as we enter our vibrant spring season, god bless all who rise up for democracy around the world: the strong undefeated people of ukraine, the protestors in budapest, the patriots of minnesota/minneapolis, no kings 9M in the streets, artemis 2 crew, pope leo, all hopiums & simon! our global mutual aid society!

Peggy Hendrickson's avatar

Why don’t we have protests like THAT?

Ann Dixon's avatar

We do! No Kings 3 in Minnesota was about double the size of the one in Budapest. We keep getting bigger here!