People have lives to live, not many are the kind of news junkies that get involved early, And the truth is that the American tendency to start electioneering so far ahead of the elections is fairly bizarre. We are the only nation to do this, thanks in large part to the media. In the meantime, most people do not have the time (or the inclination, and I don't blame them for that) to put a lot of time following something that long. Traditionally, people get interested at convention time, and that is what is happening. And there is so much "information" out there that it's hard to see through the fog. The people who are "undecided" are likely just trying to grasp it. Let's be patient and not judgemental where they are concerned, and help them when we can.
The differences have a lot to do with quality, especially this year when the pollsters are going way out over their skis to "build the electorate" to avoid underestimating Trump, because they continue to believe their misses in 2016 and 2020 were due to not including enough Trump supporters in their polling when there's a lot more evidence that the dynamics of voter suppression were responsible. Unlike Jim Crow, modern suppression is an arms race between the GOP and our voters, one we lost in 2016 and 2020 due to huge factors whose impact we couldn't have anticipated (2016 was the first post-Shelby presidential election and the first massive foreign interference, 2020 was marred by the end of the consent decree and the pandemic, which disproportionately affected our voters in every possible way the GOP could weaponize) and we won in 2018 and 2022, when Trump happened not to be on the ballot (between 2016 and 2018, there were very few new suppression measures--and where there were, the polls were wrong--as a result, more than half Democrats" margin came from people who didn't vote in 2016, which is incredible for a midterm; in 2022, there was so much publicity about Jim Crow 2.0 in 2021 that Dems, as Simon pointed out at the time; created the most robust ground game in history, benefiting strongly from pioneers like Stacy Abrams, Ben Wikler, and Beto).
It's understandable that the pollsters have been doing this--you never want to admit that a cause you have no control over, like suppression, is the cause, but it's wrong, as 2022, 2023, and 2024 (so far) have all proven. 2022 was apparently just confirmation of the pattern for pollsters rather than a wakeup call that the game has chsnged---as a recent article in The Atlsntic reveals, now they think the problem was that they didn’t include respondents who, when asked who they were voting for, said "Trump, f*** you" and hung up without answering the rest of the questions. Give it up, Nate Cohn; that's not the explanation.
The other thing that continues to happen, which Simon was the first (and only) person to call out In 2022, is that the GOP, which understands that being perceived as winning is where you want to be in a country self-selected for people who want to win, is dumping phony polls into the averages to try to convince us we're losing, so we won't take the time and effort to do what they've made harder for our people to do than theirs, namely exercise our fundamental right as Americans.
The problem is in the polling and in the so-called "analysis", Russell, not the people. Much of the polling is not well-designed, has poor sampling, and in some cases, is targeted toward particular outcomes. Another major factor is that changes in how people communicate make getting a representative sample extremely difficult at best. So the same poll could be run and come out with completely different results.
Why we are really so much better being with Kamala/Walz..
Not surprisingly, Trump continues to be a disgusting human being as he tweets and retweets filth. Who could possibly support him to be the President of the United States? For the next 67 days, I'm referring to Trump as "The Pervert". I encourage everyone to do the same. What an abomination.
(1) He has spent his life inflating his wealth, his accomplishments, even the size and value of his properties (and just the other day claimed he paid "billions" in New York state taxes)
(2) He was responsible for every cause of the inflation Biden and Harris had to deal with--supply chain problems, Russia's invasion (accordin to top officials in his own cabinet), record deficit spending, tarrifs, price gouging, the works (according to Moody's, who knows a hell of a lot more about finance than a six‐time bankrupt, the American Rescue Plan was responsible for only a fraction)
(3) What he says he's going to do, deport the undocumented, huge new tarrifs, killing clean energy initiatives when renewable sources are now the cheapest in the world (so we can be increasingly dependent on increasingly expensive fossil fuels, oil companies who have proven their loyalty to the country that made them is less than zero, and countries like Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia), even more tax cuts for the rich to raise our deficits even higher [he is, after all, the King Of Debt--his words‐‐and bankruptcy]; taking over the Fed so he can print money for short-term political gain, like a Latin American strongman, all of these things will make inflation the worst it has ever been (and he has literally no plan to actually deal with it except take away vital programs from the American people that have nothing to do with the problem, which is just as misguided as using interest rates to solve a supply chain problem, as we should have learned in the '70s).
(4) The perfect visual/symbol to use already exists: the Trump balloon.
The most effective political attacks either hit your opponent where they're perceived to be strongest (eg Swift Boat 2004) or confirm what people already believe about him. This does both.
Conventional wisdom is that the gaps will close but we will see. The continued underperformance of Senate/Gov candidates in these 7 battleground states is a ticking time bomb potentially for Trump and the GOP for there is a limit of how far Trump can run ahead of struggling candidates underneath him.
Simon, I suspect the reason that governors poll higher than the national ticket is related to the argument that you make about economics. In polling, people feel their state is doing well economically even if they feel the country overall is doing poorly. The right-wing noise machine keeps repeating that everything is a disaster, even as people see that their local economy is solid. Either that or the GOP is just running a bunch of insane goat herders for Governor/Senate.
Either that or the GOP is just running a bunch of insane goat herders for Governor/Senate.
⬆️
I'm in NC and the crazy quotient n the GOP side of the ticket is pretty darn high. Mark Robinson has even more baggage than was known when he won the primary for Governor in March and that was pretty damaging in and of itself (www.realmarkrobinson.com).
And honesty the Q-anon nut who is running for the Superitendent of Public Instruction is even crazier!
It truly is the Keystone State this election with its precious 19 EVs. It’s impossible to overstate PA’s importance.
If Harris gets PA, she has numerous truly viable combos to 270. It could be a pure Rustbelt path (PA, MI & WI) or any number of partial-Sunbelt paths plus one of MI or WI.
If she loses PA, it’s a tough slog. Harris would have to win one of NC or GA along with the rest of the Sunbelt or both of NC and GA. And that’s assuming she gets both WI and MI. I suppose you go with a pure Sunbelt path plus one of MI or WI, but that seems highly implausible.
Trump is a dead man walking if Harris wins PA. He would need to put together a combo of states the GOP hasn’t won for decades.
Whatever you can do to register or influence a voter in PA, please do it. Please. I beg you.
I am surprised 538’s polling average has Harris with a mere 1.3 percent lead in Pennsylvania. I do hope the Harris-Walz Campaign, our work, and the efforts of Governor Josh Shapiro can lift her so it’s no longer close. Perhaps Senator John Fetterman, too, can campaign strongly on behalf of Kamala Harris?
As JCOK points out, winning PA makes election victory much more assured. And the landslide victory we want depends on taking Pennsylvania!
All seven states matter, and part of the reason we've focused on AZ, NC and NE-2 is that the three blue wall states - MI, PA, WI - all have Dem governors, strong state parties and we won last time. We have more assets and tools there to win, and I always felt we would win all three, even when Biden was running. Marginal dollar or volunteer time for me is still best spent in AZ and NC right now, and if folks are looking for places to go spend the final few weeks I would choose Raleigh or Phoenix.
The R candidate for NC governor is historically bad - and that is no secret in NC as he is the current lieut gov. His candidacy is an insult to the voters there.
Ive heard that media access there is relatively expensive. It’s kind of my favorite race to watch. I think D victory there is a mortal blow.
Well, I’m a Yinzer. And even though I haven’t lived there for more than 35 years, I can still turn on that atrocious, but beautiful, accent for effect. So, I’ll be making my calls in Western PA. I promised myself on November 9, 2016 that I would never let my home state fall again. It’s been an obsession since.
Nonetheless, understand and agree with your point. Most of my “local money” is going outside PA (just some to Casey).
Simon points out that the gaps between the Senate and POTUS numbers will likely merge prior to the election. So, likely a moot point.
It's interesting however to research historical precedent for coattails, both regular and reverse. Quite a bit of support for regular coattails in the U.S. Having a strong candidate at the top can definitely pull lower-ticket candidates through to victory in close elections. Not so much for reverse coattails. Most of the studies for reverse coattails have been done in other countries, and Brazil in particular. To the extent analyzed here in the U.S., it seems reverse coattails are rare if not nonexistent.
My Financial Planner, who is also a Democrat, would not be thrilled to learn how much I’ve contributed to Act Blue Express this election cycle for the Harris Victory Fund, Senate, and House. Yesterday I learned Gloria Johnson of the Tennessee Three is running against maga Marsha Blackburn! If we can aggressively get the truth about Project 2025 can we win more states up and down the ballot this year?
Haha, me too! I just keep hitting 'donate' everytime I get nervous, which has been a lot! Although feeling better generally and WORKING HARD for Harris/Walz.
Help. I have written close to 600 Vote Forward letters to North Carolina, and the online instruction is to wait until October to mail them. But mail in voting starts next week in North Carolina, and I can't get anyone from Vote Forward to respond. I guess a bit of defiance is in order. Would love to hear from North Carolinians.
Do you mention Early Voting of Vote-by-Mail in your text? If not, then mailing the postcards early may make them less influential. I too have written postcards to North Carolina, but not nearly as many as your impressive figure. Well done!
I suspect our postcard recipients are also being contacted through other channels, including door-to-door canvassing – for instance about their options for voting early.
The battle to win it all in November runs straight through North Carolina. Obama won NC in 2008, and Biden/Harris only lost in 2020 by 1.3%. It’s key to our chances of taking back the House & keeping the White House!
To take back the House, we need to re-elect Don Davis (NC-01)! We need to elect Democrat JOSH STEIN as Governor, and flip NC blue for the White House. We’re gonna need to register a horde of new NC Democrats – especially to vote by mail. This is a job for Field Team 6!
DEMOCRATS…
...are the only major party fighting Trumpism and the extremist MAGA Republicans.
...and the only party fighting for abortion rights, civil rights, and LGBTQ+ rights.
...are fighting to expand health care rather than take it away.
...are fighting to make college more affordable, not less.
...are addressing the climate crisis, not denying it until it’s too late to take action.
REPUBLICANS...
...are waging a national war on voting rights, and fighting to raise taxes on the middle class so they can give tax cuts to the rich.
...are fighting to eliminate access to healthcare.
Registration deadline for the General Presidential Election on November 5, 2024 is October 11, 2024.
Absentee ballot application deadline for the General Presidential Election is October 29, 2024.
October 17, 2024 through November 2, 2024 at 3pm is the early voting period for the November 5, 2024 General Presidential Election. Check for early voting sites and schedules here.
You can also register and vote at the same time with one-stop early voting (October 17 - November 2 at 3pm). There is no same day registration on Election Day.
If you need help getting an ID, contact VoteRiders.org or call/text 1-844-338-8743.
Since early voting hasn't started this tool shows "closed" for every site. But if you click the link in the upper right of the page you will get a ginormous text file with every EV site with a line for every day of early voting. Use <Ctrl> F to search for your county and/or EV site and it will list the hours each day of ealy voting.
Vote Forward performed experiments on which mailing dates made the most impact, even in tates with early and mail-in ballots. In NC, October 1st mailings will still have impact for early voting. I participated in two of the mailing experiments! Also, just finished 500 letters to NC in July.I am now writing letters to Colorado CD 8 to support Rep. Yadira Caraveo for reelection.
Thanks, David. I have a bunch of letters as well. I was going to follow the instructions because that is what I do. I am a rule follower. You made me feel better about doing so.
Always follow the rules the postcard group gives you. I just had a huge flamefest with someone on threads who decided "they are so dumb with this message, I am rewriting it" and "they wouldn't listen to me despite me providing evidence from reddit their message was bad" (yes this was a white man, sorry other what men who don't do this!). Always follow the rules of whomever you work with, or pick a different group to work with. You can get postcards from Field Team Six, NEAZ, Activate America, and Postcards to Voters all of which need to be mailed now.
Thanks, everyone. What put me off was not their rules, which seemed counterintuitive, but their failure to respond. That said, I know everyone is super busy. Julie
Julie, Vote Forward is targeting lower propensity voters. They aren't the ones who vote by mail - or even vote early in person for that matter!!
Plus people get tend their ballots and then sit on them - I can probably track down some NC data from prior elections, but IIRC most of the "absentee" ballots don't come in until about when early voting is going strong. And again, the voters who mail their ballots back as soon as they get them are NOT getting letters from Vote Forward.
They are a very data-driven organization, so PLEASE resist the temptation to assume that your "intuition" knows best. If you mail them too soon, their effectiveness is greatly degraded!
BALLAD OF TIM WALZ commissioned by www.ruralvote.org. It is great fun and has a good message. I have sent the link to all my "peeps" I can think of. The response has been great.
I'm glad to be on board. I've been watching you on youtube since the Spring, but just contributed in early August for the first time to campaigns (and since) and became a member last week.
I'm concerned about Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland (against popular R. ex Gov Larry Hogan) and John Tester in Montana. if they both lose, we are going to need a couple pick ups to hold the Senate. Texas and FL are close. why not throw a few dollars that way? Kunce in Missouri is a great human being compared to Josh Hawley, its a shame that the DNCC leaves all these fine candidates stranded. I understand about not losing site of the prize, but when you talk about expanding pathways, perhaps applying that to the Senate races could be considered. Otherwise, we concede WV and keep our fingers crossed to run the table on ALL the toss-ups. Is it really the best way to go?
Welcome Michael. The DC community is not worried about Maryland. Here at Hopium we've focused all our efforts on non-incumbent races where we have a serious shot at a pick up and where our money and time goes the furthest. I am talking to folks now about our new landscape and will have a final set of recommendations to make to everyone soon. Looking at these Senate reaches and trying to get a real sense of what's possible. Folks are free to do whatever they want outside of Hopium, but here we've focused on "checkmate" for Biden-Harris-Walz, flipping the House and getting a critical Senate candidate, Ruben Gallego, off the ground. We are still a young community and need to pick a few things and do them well, not get spread too thin. That's the thinking. Thanks for being here and keep working hard - S
Good things might be happening in the Nebraska Senate race, where Independent Dan Osborn is trying to unseat the incumbent, Deb Fischer. Polling in that race has been all over the place, with some polls showing Osborn within 2–4 points.
Jay Quo wrote a great piece about our improving chances in North Carolina https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/north-carolina-is-in-play and as I read it, I was smiling and thinking "We here at Hopium helped create this world where this is a possibility!!" In honor of that (and because my long covid keeps me from joining the Thursday evening phonebanking and postcarding) I gave another $$$ to the North Carolina dems through the Hopium link!
I'm a long covid person too, Suzanne. I had been very active and then I had to completely rethink how I can contribute to a Dem win. I also selected NC to contribute to as often as I can. Simon put me on this: his interview with Anderson Cooper floored me. She is a dynamo. And it's been exciting to watch her bring NC candidates along, and see the polls climbing. I think if we can help them out, in whatever way we can, they can do it. Even the MSM is starting to notice. So... good for us!
I would be more confident if it wasn’t for the Electoral College. A polling lead doesn’t mean anything unless it is a lead in the right states. And the polls in those states are still too close for comfort.
Ohio will probably elect another MAGA hardliner to the senate. All the GOP in Ohio has done recently is take bribes from a utility company which resulted in higher consumer bills, multiple indictments, the conviction of the Ohio Speaker of the House, and two others took their own lives. So how is it that they always seem to be running in “fixing” the country when at least in Ohio they seem to be the ones doing the breaking?
I don't know I have been knocking doors for Sherrod. People like him more than Tim Ryan and low info voters usually recognize the name which was not the case for Tim or our Gov candidate last time.
I also fully believe Tim lost it in the cities, he didn't drive the turn out there and I don't think that will happen this time with Harris on the Ballot.
BTW it is not true that a national polling lead doesn't matter, and folks need to stop saying this. 1) Being ahead is better than being behind 2) there are races in all 50 states and being up 3-4 points makes it more likely we win many other races that matter across the country. The "national polling doesnt matter only state polling does" is not a very savvy way to look at our politics, IMHO.
I was expressing my concern about my home state. We don't get many polls for Ohio since we aren't a swing state so there isn't a lot of data. If because of that I am not welcome here please let me know.
Chris, if you are worried about the outcome in OH, what are you doing to change the picture?
Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) and Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) have postcard campaigns into OH. Both organizations also do text- and phonebanking too, so there very well may be OH campaigns in these other channels as well.
In addition there are literally dozens of upcoming phone-banking and canvassing events for OH candidates. Check for them in Mobilize (www.mobilize.us). Supporting down-ballot candidates has reverse coattails on the state-wide elections.
Chris, yah, we know about the vagaries of the Electoral College. I am full on in support of Harris/Walz, but my big focus is down ballot, especially for Congress. If we work hard, we have a good chance not only of taking both houses, and even taking at least one of them with a buffer majority. History shows us that can drive votes for other offices, including President.
I don't think we know where Ohio is going. That place is a mystery. But we don't give up. There have been upsets before. But the key here is not to let unknowns drag us down. We've got a lot going for us and we need to use that energy to celebrate what we can do. Elections have been won that way and we aim to make 2024 among them.
Hey everyone. Thank you for the video Simon. Of course I know nothing, but those numbers look awfully high for Trump. What do you think is up with that? And, really, with all that you said about Trump, if those numbers are true (of course it is a Fox poll) and we all know what you say about Trump is true, why are those numbers in the high 40%? I thought his high number was about 43%. Just pondering.......... See you tonight at Postcarding!
Those Fox polling numbers were for battleground states, not national numbers which I think have been lower for Trump. I think the key element of those battleground figures is the sharp movement in our direction in all of them since the "hand-off" happened from Biden to Harris. Several points swing our way and Kamala pulling ahead in all but one. An encouraging moment in the flow of information. We're in better shape than ever in this campaign, but as our fellow Hopium friends would say, it's down to all of us working for team blue to bust our butts (joyfully!) and bring this thing home!
No harm intended- was responding to Simon’s opening…
“Happy Thursday all. Sorry for being a little late today. I had written an entirely different post about the ugliness of Trump but felt it was just wasn’t ready….”
Certainly here in NY that is all public information. Contact your local BOE now and find out how to get it every day. Follow up of mail in ballots is hard work but woth it.
A thought: I wish we could also frame the abortion rights debate as a freedom of conscience issue - perhaps people who would never choose an abortion can understand that others are being forced to violate their consciences when that choice is outlawed.
WaPo includes a lot of bad pollsters in their averages and their “other factors” is just code for putting a thumb on the scale for trump because they think they have to over correct for missing in 2016. Plenty of better polling aggregators out there, Simon seems to favor 538.
How anyone can still be an "undecided voter" is beyond me.
People have lives to live, not many are the kind of news junkies that get involved early, And the truth is that the American tendency to start electioneering so far ahead of the elections is fairly bizarre. We are the only nation to do this, thanks in large part to the media. In the meantime, most people do not have the time (or the inclination, and I don't blame them for that) to put a lot of time following something that long. Traditionally, people get interested at convention time, and that is what is happening. And there is so much "information" out there that it's hard to see through the fog. The people who are "undecided" are likely just trying to grasp it. Let's be patient and not judgemental where they are concerned, and help them when we can.
The differences have a lot to do with quality, especially this year when the pollsters are going way out over their skis to "build the electorate" to avoid underestimating Trump, because they continue to believe their misses in 2016 and 2020 were due to not including enough Trump supporters in their polling when there's a lot more evidence that the dynamics of voter suppression were responsible. Unlike Jim Crow, modern suppression is an arms race between the GOP and our voters, one we lost in 2016 and 2020 due to huge factors whose impact we couldn't have anticipated (2016 was the first post-Shelby presidential election and the first massive foreign interference, 2020 was marred by the end of the consent decree and the pandemic, which disproportionately affected our voters in every possible way the GOP could weaponize) and we won in 2018 and 2022, when Trump happened not to be on the ballot (between 2016 and 2018, there were very few new suppression measures--and where there were, the polls were wrong--as a result, more than half Democrats" margin came from people who didn't vote in 2016, which is incredible for a midterm; in 2022, there was so much publicity about Jim Crow 2.0 in 2021 that Dems, as Simon pointed out at the time; created the most robust ground game in history, benefiting strongly from pioneers like Stacy Abrams, Ben Wikler, and Beto).
It's understandable that the pollsters have been doing this--you never want to admit that a cause you have no control over, like suppression, is the cause, but it's wrong, as 2022, 2023, and 2024 (so far) have all proven. 2022 was apparently just confirmation of the pattern for pollsters rather than a wakeup call that the game has chsnged---as a recent article in The Atlsntic reveals, now they think the problem was that they didn’t include respondents who, when asked who they were voting for, said "Trump, f*** you" and hung up without answering the rest of the questions. Give it up, Nate Cohn; that's not the explanation.
The other thing that continues to happen, which Simon was the first (and only) person to call out In 2022, is that the GOP, which understands that being perceived as winning is where you want to be in a country self-selected for people who want to win, is dumping phony polls into the averages to try to convince us we're losing, so we won't take the time and effort to do what they've made harder for our people to do than theirs, namely exercise our fundamental right as Americans.
The problem is in the polling and in the so-called "analysis", Russell, not the people. Much of the polling is not well-designed, has poor sampling, and in some cases, is targeted toward particular outcomes. Another major factor is that changes in how people communicate make getting a representative sample extremely difficult at best. So the same poll could be run and come out with completely different results.
Why we are really so much better being with Kamala/Walz..
Not surprisingly, Trump continues to be a disgusting human being as he tweets and retweets filth. Who could possibly support him to be the President of the United States? For the next 67 days, I'm referring to Trump as "The Pervert". I encourage everyone to do the same. What an abomination.
Our Hopium vocabulary is much stronger. trump is a "rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon!"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/19/trump-carroll-judge-rape/
Of course, The Pervert is many horrible things. Being a pervert is just one of his badges of shame.
criminal at Arlington National Cemetery, felon x 34 for falsified business records
Pornographer.
I'm referring to him as The Inflator;
(1) He has spent his life inflating his wealth, his accomplishments, even the size and value of his properties (and just the other day claimed he paid "billions" in New York state taxes)
(2) He was responsible for every cause of the inflation Biden and Harris had to deal with--supply chain problems, Russia's invasion (accordin to top officials in his own cabinet), record deficit spending, tarrifs, price gouging, the works (according to Moody's, who knows a hell of a lot more about finance than a six‐time bankrupt, the American Rescue Plan was responsible for only a fraction)
(3) What he says he's going to do, deport the undocumented, huge new tarrifs, killing clean energy initiatives when renewable sources are now the cheapest in the world (so we can be increasingly dependent on increasingly expensive fossil fuels, oil companies who have proven their loyalty to the country that made them is less than zero, and countries like Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia), even more tax cuts for the rich to raise our deficits even higher [he is, after all, the King Of Debt--his words‐‐and bankruptcy]; taking over the Fed so he can print money for short-term political gain, like a Latin American strongman, all of these things will make inflation the worst it has ever been (and he has literally no plan to actually deal with it except take away vital programs from the American people that have nothing to do with the problem, which is just as misguided as using interest rates to solve a supply chain problem, as we should have learned in the '70s).
(4) The perfect visual/symbol to use already exists: the Trump balloon.
The most effective political attacks either hit your opponent where they're perceived to be strongest (eg Swift Boat 2004) or confirm what people already believe about him. This does both.
Any thoughts why democratic senate and governor candidates are running so far ahead of Harris.
We don't "suspect" or "guess" here. You need to have data to make a claim like this. Please do so or withdraw the comment. Thank you.
Conventional wisdom is that the gaps will close but we will see. The continued underperformance of Senate/Gov candidates in these 7 battleground states is a ticking time bomb potentially for Trump and the GOP for there is a limit of how far Trump can run ahead of struggling candidates underneath him.
Simon, I suspect the reason that governors poll higher than the national ticket is related to the argument that you make about economics. In polling, people feel their state is doing well economically even if they feel the country overall is doing poorly. The right-wing noise machine keeps repeating that everything is a disaster, even as people see that their local economy is solid. Either that or the GOP is just running a bunch of insane goat herders for Governor/Senate.
🤔
Either that or the GOP is just running a bunch of insane goat herders for Governor/Senate.
⬆️
I'm in NC and the crazy quotient n the GOP side of the ticket is pretty darn high. Mark Robinson has even more baggage than was known when he won the primary for Governor in March and that was pretty damaging in and of itself (www.realmarkrobinson.com).
And honesty the Q-anon nut who is running for the Superitendent of Public Instruction is even crazier!
https://www.politicsnc.com/p/and-you-thought-mark-robinson-was?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Pennsylvania… Pennsylvania…. Pennsylvania.
It truly is the Keystone State this election with its precious 19 EVs. It’s impossible to overstate PA’s importance.
If Harris gets PA, she has numerous truly viable combos to 270. It could be a pure Rustbelt path (PA, MI & WI) or any number of partial-Sunbelt paths plus one of MI or WI.
If she loses PA, it’s a tough slog. Harris would have to win one of NC or GA along with the rest of the Sunbelt or both of NC and GA. And that’s assuming she gets both WI and MI. I suppose you go with a pure Sunbelt path plus one of MI or WI, but that seems highly implausible.
Trump is a dead man walking if Harris wins PA. He would need to put together a combo of states the GOP hasn’t won for decades.
Whatever you can do to register or influence a voter in PA, please do it. Please. I beg you.
I am surprised 538’s polling average has Harris with a mere 1.3 percent lead in Pennsylvania. I do hope the Harris-Walz Campaign, our work, and the efforts of Governor Josh Shapiro can lift her so it’s no longer close. Perhaps Senator John Fetterman, too, can campaign strongly on behalf of Kamala Harris?
As JCOK points out, winning PA makes election victory much more assured. And the landslide victory we want depends on taking Pennsylvania!
All seven states matter, and part of the reason we've focused on AZ, NC and NE-2 is that the three blue wall states - MI, PA, WI - all have Dem governors, strong state parties and we won last time. We have more assets and tools there to win, and I always felt we would win all three, even when Biden was running. Marginal dollar or volunteer time for me is still best spent in AZ and NC right now, and if folks are looking for places to go spend the final few weeks I would choose Raleigh or Phoenix.
This answered my exact question. I’m currently donating to Tester (MT). Is that wise?
The R candidate for NC governor is historically bad - and that is no secret in NC as he is the current lieut gov. His candidacy is an insult to the voters there.
Ive heard that media access there is relatively expensive. It’s kind of my favorite race to watch. I think D victory there is a mortal blow.
Well, I’m a Yinzer. And even though I haven’t lived there for more than 35 years, I can still turn on that atrocious, but beautiful, accent for effect. So, I’ll be making my calls in Western PA. I promised myself on November 9, 2016 that I would never let my home state fall again. It’s been an obsession since.
Nonetheless, understand and agree with your point. Most of my “local money” is going outside PA (just some to Casey).
Can Kamala's coat tails carry Bob Casey, or vice versa?
Simon points out that the gaps between the Senate and POTUS numbers will likely merge prior to the election. So, likely a moot point.
It's interesting however to research historical precedent for coattails, both regular and reverse. Quite a bit of support for regular coattails in the U.S. Having a strong candidate at the top can definitely pull lower-ticket candidates through to victory in close elections. Not so much for reverse coattails. Most of the studies for reverse coattails have been done in other countries, and Brazil in particular. To the extent analyzed here in the U.S., it seems reverse coattails are rare if not nonexistent.
Thank you.
I've currently finished 80 out of 200 post cards I'm writing to PA through post cards to swing states. Hoping to do 100 to NC as well.
Would love to do more, but my wife and I are expecting our first kid in a few months and we're scrambling to get ready for that too.
Way to Go!!!
What link/service did you use?
I used https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/ for my PA postcards. They've filled up all their signed ups, so I think I'm going to use Field Team 6 for NC.
My Financial Planner, who is also a Democrat, would not be thrilled to learn how much I’ve contributed to Act Blue Express this election cycle for the Harris Victory Fund, Senate, and House. Yesterday I learned Gloria Johnson of the Tennessee Three is running against maga Marsha Blackburn! If we can aggressively get the truth about Project 2025 can we win more states up and down the ballot this year?
Your financial planner likely thinks long-term and will commend you for helping to elect Harris-Walz
Haha, me too! I just keep hitting 'donate' everytime I get nervous, which has been a lot! Although feeling better generally and WORKING HARD for Harris/Walz.
Yes, support Gloria to defeat Blackburn!!
Help. I have written close to 600 Vote Forward letters to North Carolina, and the online instruction is to wait until October to mail them. But mail in voting starts next week in North Carolina, and I can't get anyone from Vote Forward to respond. I guess a bit of defiance is in order. Would love to hear from North Carolinians.
Do you mention Early Voting of Vote-by-Mail in your text? If not, then mailing the postcards early may make them less influential. I too have written postcards to North Carolina, but not nearly as many as your impressive figure. Well done!
Thanks, I guess I will hang on until Oct. 1. Julie
I suspect our postcard recipients are also being contacted through other channels, including door-to-door canvassing – for instance about their options for voting early.
FT6 is texting, calling, in N. Carolina.
AERIAL VIEW
The battle to win it all in November runs straight through North Carolina. Obama won NC in 2008, and Biden/Harris only lost in 2020 by 1.3%. It’s key to our chances of taking back the House & keeping the White House!
To take back the House, we need to re-elect Don Davis (NC-01)! We need to elect Democrat JOSH STEIN as Governor, and flip NC blue for the White House. We’re gonna need to register a horde of new NC Democrats – especially to vote by mail. This is a job for Field Team 6!
DEMOCRATS…
...are the only major party fighting Trumpism and the extremist MAGA Republicans.
...and the only party fighting for abortion rights, civil rights, and LGBTQ+ rights.
...are fighting to expand health care rather than take it away.
...are fighting to make college more affordable, not less.
...are addressing the climate crisis, not denying it until it’s too late to take action.
REPUBLICANS...
...are waging a national war on voting rights, and fighting to raise taxes on the middle class so they can give tax cuts to the rich.
...are fighting to eliminate access to healthcare.
...support Trumpism’s racist, sexist, anti-democracy, obstructionist agenda.
IMPORTANT NOTES
Registration deadline for the General Presidential Election on November 5, 2024 is October 11, 2024.
Absentee ballot application deadline for the General Presidential Election is October 29, 2024.
October 17, 2024 through November 2, 2024 at 3pm is the early voting period for the November 5, 2024 General Presidential Election. Check for early voting sites and schedules here.
You can also register and vote at the same time with one-stop early voting (October 17 - November 2 at 3pm). There is no same day registration on Election Day.
If you need help getting an ID, contact VoteRiders.org or call/text 1-844-338-8743.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Check for early voting sites and schedules here.
⬆️
Not sure what llink you intended to include, but here is a link to NC State Board of Elections EV sites:
https://vt.ncsbe.gov/EVSite/ (select your county)
Since early voting hasn't started this tool shows "closed" for every site. But if you click the link in the upper right of the page you will get a ginormous text file with every EV site with a line for every day of early voting. Use <Ctrl> F to search for your county and/or EV site and it will list the hours each day of ealy voting.
Julie,
Vote Forward performed experiments on which mailing dates made the most impact, even in tates with early and mail-in ballots. In NC, October 1st mailings will still have impact for early voting. I participated in two of the mailing experiments! Also, just finished 500 letters to NC in July.I am now writing letters to Colorado CD 8 to support Rep. Yadira Caraveo for reelection.
*States
Thanks, David. I have a bunch of letters as well. I was going to follow the instructions because that is what I do. I am a rule follower. You made me feel better about doing so.
Hooray for you, David E Kolva. MD, participating in the experimental Vote Forward tests.
Always follow the rules the postcard group gives you. I just had a huge flamefest with someone on threads who decided "they are so dumb with this message, I am rewriting it" and "they wouldn't listen to me despite me providing evidence from reddit their message was bad" (yes this was a white man, sorry other what men who don't do this!). Always follow the rules of whomever you work with, or pick a different group to work with. You can get postcards from Field Team Six, NEAZ, Activate America, and Postcards to Voters all of which need to be mailed now.
Thanks, everyone. What put me off was not their rules, which seemed counterintuitive, but their failure to respond. That said, I know everyone is super busy. Julie
A thought, have a look at Blue Wave Postcards Movement, and Postcards To Swing States, where there might be a short Script for Vote By Mail.
I actually did tweak what I was writing, combining two of their messages. But I obtained their approval before doing so.
I did a combination message on some of my postcards, just to put variety into doing it. It didn't alter the meaning in any way.
Suggest email directly to https://help.votefwd.org/
When in doubt, there is no such thing as a silly question. Always best practices to follow the rules.
Thanks but I tried that, but my question wasn't there and answers all canned. Its ok, everybody. I will wait until Oct. 1.
Julie, Vote Forward is targeting lower propensity voters. They aren't the ones who vote by mail - or even vote early in person for that matter!!
Plus people get tend their ballots and then sit on them - I can probably track down some NC data from prior elections, but IIRC most of the "absentee" ballots don't come in until about when early voting is going strong. And again, the voters who mail their ballots back as soon as they get them are NOT getting letters from Vote Forward.
They are a very data-driven organization, so PLEASE resist the temptation to assume that your "intuition" knows best. If you mail them too soon, their effectiveness is greatly degraded!
BALLAD OF TIM WALZ commissioned by www.ruralvote.org. It is great fun and has a good message. I have sent the link to all my "peeps" I can think of. The response has been great.
I'm glad to be on board. I've been watching you on youtube since the Spring, but just contributed in early August for the first time to campaigns (and since) and became a member last week.
I'm concerned about Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland (against popular R. ex Gov Larry Hogan) and John Tester in Montana. if they both lose, we are going to need a couple pick ups to hold the Senate. Texas and FL are close. why not throw a few dollars that way? Kunce in Missouri is a great human being compared to Josh Hawley, its a shame that the DNCC leaves all these fine candidates stranded. I understand about not losing site of the prize, but when you talk about expanding pathways, perhaps applying that to the Senate races could be considered. Otherwise, we concede WV and keep our fingers crossed to run the table on ALL the toss-ups. Is it really the best way to go?
Welcome Michael. The DC community is not worried about Maryland. Here at Hopium we've focused all our efforts on non-incumbent races where we have a serious shot at a pick up and where our money and time goes the furthest. I am talking to folks now about our new landscape and will have a final set of recommendations to make to everyone soon. Looking at these Senate reaches and trying to get a real sense of what's possible. Folks are free to do whatever they want outside of Hopium, but here we've focused on "checkmate" for Biden-Harris-Walz, flipping the House and getting a critical Senate candidate, Ruben Gallego, off the ground. We are still a young community and need to pick a few things and do them well, not get spread too thin. That's the thinking. Thanks for being here and keep working hard - S
I really appreciate the feedback, Simon. In it to win it. I'm doing what I can, as I can.
mb
Good things might be happening in the Nebraska Senate race, where Independent Dan Osborn is trying to unseat the incumbent, Deb Fischer. Polling in that race has been all over the place, with some polls showing Osborn within 2–4 points.
Any idea if Osborn wins who he will caucus with?
It's great seeing that we were already able to flip the Tulsa's Mayoral seat.
Jay Quo wrote a great piece about our improving chances in North Carolina https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/north-carolina-is-in-play and as I read it, I was smiling and thinking "We here at Hopium helped create this world where this is a possibility!!" In honor of that (and because my long covid keeps me from joining the Thursday evening phonebanking and postcarding) I gave another $$$ to the North Carolina dems through the Hopium link!
And I ALWAYS spell his name wrong! Damnit! Jay Kuo. Of the Status Kuo. It's right there in the link, too.
I'm a long covid person too, Suzanne. I had been very active and then I had to completely rethink how I can contribute to a Dem win. I also selected NC to contribute to as often as I can. Simon put me on this: his interview with Anderson Cooper floored me. She is a dynamo. And it's been exciting to watch her bring NC candidates along, and see the polls climbing. I think if we can help them out, in whatever way we can, they can do it. Even the MSM is starting to notice. So... good for us!
I would be more confident if it wasn’t for the Electoral College. A polling lead doesn’t mean anything unless it is a lead in the right states. And the polls in those states are still too close for comfort.
Ohio will probably elect another MAGA hardliner to the senate. All the GOP in Ohio has done recently is take bribes from a utility company which resulted in higher consumer bills, multiple indictments, the conviction of the Ohio Speaker of the House, and two others took their own lives. So how is it that they always seem to be running in “fixing” the country when at least in Ohio they seem to be the ones doing the breaking?
I don't know I have been knocking doors for Sherrod. People like him more than Tim Ryan and low info voters usually recognize the name which was not the case for Tim or our Gov candidate last time.
I also fully believe Tim lost it in the cities, he didn't drive the turn out there and I don't think that will happen this time with Harris on the Ballot.
BTW it is not true that a national polling lead doesn't matter, and folks need to stop saying this. 1) Being ahead is better than being behind 2) there are races in all 50 states and being up 3-4 points makes it more likely we win many other races that matter across the country. The "national polling doesnt matter only state polling does" is not a very savvy way to look at our politics, IMHO.
And Chris, Sherrod is leading in all polls and is likely to win. Need you to do better here in the future. Thank you.
I was expressing my concern about my home state. We don't get many polls for Ohio since we aren't a swing state so there isn't a lot of data. If because of that I am not welcome here please let me know.
Moreno has never had the lead in any public polling and Brown is consistently ahead outside of the margin of error. That's good news!
Yay!
Chris, if you are worried about the outcome in OH, what are you doing to change the picture?
Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) and Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) have postcard campaigns into OH. Both organizations also do text- and phonebanking too, so there very well may be OH campaigns in these other channels as well.
In addition there are literally dozens of upcoming phone-banking and canvassing events for OH candidates. Check for them in Mobilize (www.mobilize.us). Supporting down-ballot candidates has reverse coattails on the state-wide elections.
As Simon always says "Do More; Worry Less"
We are a Hopium coalition around the goals that our leader, Simon, sets for us. Let’s respect his direction when provided.
Chris, yah, we know about the vagaries of the Electoral College. I am full on in support of Harris/Walz, but my big focus is down ballot, especially for Congress. If we work hard, we have a good chance not only of taking both houses, and even taking at least one of them with a buffer majority. History shows us that can drive votes for other offices, including President.
I don't think we know where Ohio is going. That place is a mystery. But we don't give up. There have been upsets before. But the key here is not to let unknowns drag us down. We've got a lot going for us and we need to use that energy to celebrate what we can do. Elections have been won that way and we aim to make 2024 among them.
Hey everyone. Thank you for the video Simon. Of course I know nothing, but those numbers look awfully high for Trump. What do you think is up with that? And, really, with all that you said about Trump, if those numbers are true (of course it is a Fox poll) and we all know what you say about Trump is true, why are those numbers in the high 40%? I thought his high number was about 43%. Just pondering.......... See you tonight at Postcarding!
Those Fox polling numbers were for battleground states, not national numbers which I think have been lower for Trump. I think the key element of those battleground figures is the sharp movement in our direction in all of them since the "hand-off" happened from Biden to Harris. Several points swing our way and Kamala pulling ahead in all but one. An encouraging moment in the flow of information. We're in better shape than ever in this campaign, but as our fellow Hopium friends would say, it's down to all of us working for team blue to bust our butts (joyfully!) and bring this thing home!
Thanks Maurice! Great perspective.
Simon, Simon, Dear Man,
If you try to be thorough, let alone complete in an article about the ugliness of Trump, you will never be finished.
His daily ravings embrace outright pornography as well as offense to every standard of decent behavior.
His putrescence is circling the drain deeper and deeper each day. And it’s not a sink drain or even a toilet - it’s the vortex of moral abyss.
Fashion-Trap-Carpet-Polyester-Machine-Washable-Fluffy-Anti-Skid-Anti-Fatigue-Floor-Mat-Living-Room-Eye-catchin/853683010?wmlspartner=wlpa&selectedSellerId=101139168&adid=22222222228853683010_101139168_14069003552_202077872&wl0=&wl1=g&wl2=m&wl3=42423897272&wl4=pla-319455734609&wl5=9007869&wl6=&wl7=&wl8=&wl9=pla&wl10=562526516&wl11=online&wl12=853683010_101139168&veh=sem&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADmfBIrfaT0YkGjx571pqWXOfrvfZ&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIiN73jPmaiAMVeUpHAR0n8wBlEAQYFCABEgJo5fD_BwE
What is this doing on Hopium?
No harm intended- was responding to Simon’s opening…
“Happy Thursday all. Sorry for being a little late today. I had written an entirely different post about the ugliness of Trump but felt it was just wasn’t ready….”
Will you have Tom on a Zoom again, perhaps as early voting gets underway? Is it possible to know who has requested and returned mail-in ballots?
Certainly here in NY that is all public information. Contact your local BOE now and find out how to get it every day. Follow up of mail in ballots is hard work but woth it.
A thought: I wish we could also frame the abortion rights debate as a freedom of conscience issue - perhaps people who would never choose an abortion can understand that others are being forced to violate their consciences when that choice is outlawed.
Simon, what do you make of the WashPo piece about Trump leading in battleground polls? https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/
WaPo includes a lot of bad pollsters in their averages and their “other factors” is just code for putting a thumb on the scale for trump because they think they have to over correct for missing in 2016. Plenty of better polling aggregators out there, Simon seems to favor 538.