Thanks as always Simon for all of your hard work and dedication. We must continue to fight to save our country from Trump, MAGA and the Repubs insanity and dangerous actions and proclamations that “America is back!”
Does the CPI include gas and food? I can never keep them straight. It is surprising I think the number is that bad. 10.8% annualized inflation is off-the-charts bad. Tariffs have been there for awhile so I doubt this is the tariffs. I didn't see Krugman do an analysis yet. That's where I usually go. He's, somewhat surprisingly, more focused on the war and politics the last few days.
I will work on postcards tonight, and over the weekend as usual. I only have 10 I'll try to get done over the weekend. A minibreak I guess.
Thanks. I know the fed use one measure that doesn't include food and gas (or at least "volatile" commodities. Gas prices have a secondary effect on everything as you indicate.
OK "core" is the key. Someday I might learn. Thanks. I learned from Krugman a few weeks ago the on the Fed looks at omits the volatile stuff. That's the extent of my knowledge. Thanks.
At least then, if it includes gas, then the logical conclusion is that this is in large part due to high gas, and then secondary effects. Without gas in there, it must be quite a bit lower.
Exactly-- "Core" is the key. Another way to think of it, is CPI and PPI are "real" or "in the moment". It's what a basket of goods/services actually costs a person to buy (CPI), or cost a producer to make (PPI). However, the Fed uses "Core" to track longer-term trends, precisely because the volatile stuff is omitted.
Be careful here gents. It's CPI and PCE not PPI. Core PCE, the one the Fed relies on, is much higher than core CPI, which is why they have not been cutting interest rates. Additionally, I think we have entered a period like COVID where Trump and his allies are promoting magical thinking - it's all going to go away/it's all going to snap back. We are in a discontinuity now, and all this data we are getting lags weeks behind what is happening right now. What I am most concerned about is how we are not repeatedly shocking our economy - tariffs, mass deportations, tourism crash, and now an energy shock, a commodity shock, an inflation shock, a "Trump batshit crazy" shock, and potentially a fiscal shock. We have no idea where this is going to go for the system has been thrown out of balance and going through cascading and reinforcing shocks. It's like a car tumbling over in an accident. It may land on its wheels or it may also roll off the cliff. We are playing with fire, globally now, and have entered a deeply dangerous geopolitical and economic period. There is nothing good or reassuring about any of this data. We haven't seen a month of inflation like this outside COVID since the Carter era, and the world is not going to go back as it was. Keven Hassett said on TV this morning that the Strait of Hormuz won't open for another two months. If that is true expect massive downward revisions on all economic data.
OK. Merch. I have investigated merch. I am confident that I can easily set up a system, at no cost to Hopium (except possible tax consequences. I cannot provide tax advice), which will provide tee shirts with union bugs to the proud plucky patriots of Hopium, provide income to Hopium, and which will administer itself. Seriously. I am not making this up.
I hope our political leaders can focus on the out of control grift of the Military Industrial Complex’s complete failure to deliver. The majority of weapons and aircraft that they have delivered over the last few decades are a joke and are causing loss of life and defeat at astronomical $$$. This is unsustainable and robs citizens of the most basic human rights to healthcare, a clean environment, affordable housing and so much more.
Thank you, Simon. Each morning I watch for your analysis of what is happening.
Self-report: Yesterday instead of postcards I did letters for Vote Forward. I like that they provide pdf files of letters with lots of information for voters. The writer just adds some more personal stuff. I'll take the letters to the post office today and will call my Congresspeople.
Well, Simon, you predicted that today's economic news would be grim and you were right. I was thinking yesterday on my walk about some neighbors I had who put up a sign in their yard before the 2024 election: Trump low prices/Kamala high prices. I thought at the time they were wrong.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say NO more money for ICE or this illegal war and that the president is insane and must be removed from office. I'm writing postcards to NC voters today.
Thank you Simon for this extremely informative report. Below, I’m posting a link I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts on. It touches on much of what we all discussed in the comments yesterday and this link centers around the ‘Election Autopsy.’ I’m going to warn that the commentary in the link by these two Dem strategists is not too rosy but given your experience and longer tenure than these two, I’d like to know if you agree/disagree with their overall assertion. They both claim much of our loss is due to Gaza. I can understand that on some level but am not sure I buy that as the driving factor. Nonetheless…
I am going to express my frustration with this comment. 1) completely off topic from literally everything that is going on right now, a distraction, and dropping negative sentiment here, challenging my arguments. 2) For me to engage you are asking me to watch a video with people whom I am completely unfamiliar with, and do not appear to be strategists. Is asking me to watch some random video a reasonable thing? How much time each day should I spend on that? 30-60 minutes? 3) There is no data I am aware of from anywhere that suggests that Gaza was a major issue in the election in 2024. I am open to it, but do not believe it to be true. Nor do I believe any thing has been leaked from the autopsy. 4) Why in the world would you want to drag us back into this right now given that everything is going on? You watch some show, get riled up and come in here and dump it all over us without doing any kind of research? Imagine if people did that every day here? We would be Twitter.
Simon, I completely understand where you’re coming from and agree with your main assertion. You’re right…this was an inconsiderate move of me…unintended. It seems I fell into the trap so many of us do in that I let my concerns/emotions overshadow the winning trajectory we’re having all amidst the shit show we’re living through and that can’t nor should it be downplayed.
I think it’s because I take this particular issue personally and am bothered by some in the party who seem to take such a ‘scorched earth’ approach on Israel/Gaza and when I see figures like Carlson and MTG try to ‘open the doorway’ for low information voters with their ‘simple but misleading messaging,’ it borders on Antisemitism and I can’t help but feel there’s a bit of a concerning trend when I look to our left at people like Hassan Piker joining El-Sayed in MI, etc. It’s a party fracture I one, hope really isn’t there, and two, one that makes me uncomfortable if it is. Obv, something to be discussed another time if at all.
Also, you know how I feel about both your leadership and the community so again, apologies for the negative sentiment. We all need a good kick in the ass on occasion and righty so, today was my turn to get my ass kicked. Let’s keep winning 🙌🙏✌️💕.
I think it says a lot that Simon has never heard of the people in the video, and that he's also not seen any data from anywhere backing up their conclusion about Gaza as an issue. So I don't think there's a need to worry about this issue, Blake, even though there are people out there trying to stir it up.
My dream is that we get an FDR, JFK, or LBJ following Trump. A conversation between Heather Cox Richardson and Timothy Snyder offered a vision of how our government, and our country, could be be focused on creating the freedom to take risks, pursue opportunities, and rebuild the American dream was inspiring beyond belief. It was also deeply depressing as it held up a mirror to how our institutional failures are devastating. I'm an elder millenial. My wife and I are fortunate to own a home, but it is significantly inferior to the homes we grew up in, a perpetual reminder of how we are unable to provide our children with the same standard of living we had growing up.
And then I think about Gen Z, who never lived in a time where it felt like things were getting better and the American dream was viable. Home ownership is more fantasy than possibility. Having children would be effectively consigning their family to poverty.
But current leadership seems to think Republicans and MAGA will start acting "normal" once Trump is gone. Nevermind the Republican scorched earth "if we tear the country in half, we can pick up the bigger half" tactics that predate Trump, extending all the way back to Bill Clinton, or the far right SCOTUS majority that makes nakedly political rulings without basis in law or precedent, or the billionaire / Epstein class that has seen Trump in action and is going in to overdrive with campaign contributions to PROTECT HIM AND MAGA!! Current leadership has no plan for what to do when Republicans keep doing what they have been doing for decades, more concerned with maintaining norms that Republicans have abandoned without paying a political price, or thinking outside the box like Montana is for campaign contributions, or contemplating SCOTUS reforms such as expanding the court.
Thanks, Derek, for the shoutout to Montana and the Transparent Election Initiative (aka The Montana Plan). We are in the signature gathering phase and need to have around 30,000 by the June 19th deadline. It's all volunteer - no paid signature gatherers. Other states have enjoined the battle though are in an earlier stage. Last time I checked there were around 30 states on the list. https://transparentelection.org
When Iran shot down two of our planes this weekend, they said they were able to do this thanks to a "new defense system." Guess where they got it, a year ahead of when it was originally supposed to be delivered?
This on top of the destruction of a $300M AWACS plane on the ground thanks to targeting info provided by the same country ( https://creativepoli.net/awacs_russia ). I sure hope someone is making sure everyone in active service knows that the guy whose illegal orders they keep following is giving that country access to billions in oil revenues as punishment for these acts and even lifting their own blockade on Cuba to help with the transactions.
And making sure everyone in MAGA knows their guy is now officially a red-handed traitor (without saying that directly, of course). According to a Pew study conducted a year ago, even among Republicans, Russia's approval rating is only 16% and only 16% have any confidence in Putin to "do the right thing." I can't imagine that percentage has increased, but I can certainly imagine it has declined.
“And given the gravity of the economic damage that has already occurred, and the dangerous geopolitical the war has unleashed on the world, there is no snapping back to a before time. Everything will be different now, and probably much worse for the US and the world.”
I have been thinking about this a lot. When Democrats attack Democrats, it always sounds like, “Why didn’t sane people anticipate insanity? Why didn’t outsiders have all the insider information? Why didn’t the minority overpower and stop the majority?”
As Americans realize their mistake in electing T****, they are going to look to Democrats to put things “back to normal.” I think they will expect the next Democratic administration to put the treaties back, put the government agencies back, and put all the squandered wealth back.
But there isn’t an undo button in real life. Even with years of hard work, we will still have a big jagged scar and some pain all the time. The new normal might not be terrible. If we can convince people to stay in their “higher gear,” it might even be excellent. But it will never be the old normal.
People will have to keep up their volunteering and donations, basically from now on. But I can’t even convince some of my friends and family, who are smart and capable, to write postcards or call their electeds.
I hope the one good thing that comes of this is that the electorate realizes the importance of good governance/governing ability. It absolutely matters. Ideas/slogans/memes/podcasts are all good but not sufficient. The temperament, intelligence, and thoughtfulness (and, experience would be good) to govern has to be a non-negotiable qualification. It used to be, but that went away in 2016. I hope that's one part of "normal" that snaps back.
Right on, JE and RP. Trump voters are learning what most of us outside the MAGA bubble knew -- that governance is serious business and putting an 'easy button' at the Resolute Desk just doesn't cut it.
This is what happens when he no longer has Obama's economy to coast on. He actually had to do something this time, because that's what people elected him for. And, here we are. Governed by a guy who went bankrupt 7 times, including a casino. Why anyone thought he was some sort of business whiz/economic genius is just beyond me, and the economy, and state of affairs in general, is reflecting that ineptitude.
Funny thing is, he did not actually have to do anything.
The economy Joe Biden left was very strong indeed and was only going to get better. 'Envy of the rest of the world' as per the economist, if I remember rightly.
Trump could have done nothing, then reaped the rewards and claimed all the credit. The media would have lapped it up no doubt!!
But he just could not help himself and so we get this mess.
Thanks as always Simon for all of your hard work and dedication. We must continue to fight to save our country from Trump, MAGA and the Repubs insanity and dangerous actions and proclamations that “America is back!”
Does the CPI include gas and food? I can never keep them straight. It is surprising I think the number is that bad. 10.8% annualized inflation is off-the-charts bad. Tariffs have been there for awhile so I doubt this is the tariffs. I didn't see Krugman do an analysis yet. That's where I usually go. He's, somewhat surprisingly, more focused on the war and politics the last few days.
I will work on postcards tonight, and over the weekend as usual. I only have 10 I'll try to get done over the weekend. A minibreak I guess.
Yes, it includes gas and food (and food is often related to gas because the cost of food transport moves with gas, obviously).
Thanks. I know the fed use one measure that doesn't include food and gas (or at least "volatile" commodities. Gas prices have a secondary effect on everything as you indicate.
Correct, Core CPI and Core PPI do not include gas and food / gas.
OK "core" is the key. Someday I might learn. Thanks. I learned from Krugman a few weeks ago the on the Fed looks at omits the volatile stuff. That's the extent of my knowledge. Thanks.
At least then, if it includes gas, then the logical conclusion is that this is in large part due to high gas, and then secondary effects. Without gas in there, it must be quite a bit lower.
Exactly-- "Core" is the key. Another way to think of it, is CPI and PPI are "real" or "in the moment". It's what a basket of goods/services actually costs a person to buy (CPI), or cost a producer to make (PPI). However, the Fed uses "Core" to track longer-term trends, precisely because the volatile stuff is omitted.
Be careful here gents. It's CPI and PCE not PPI. Core PCE, the one the Fed relies on, is much higher than core CPI, which is why they have not been cutting interest rates. Additionally, I think we have entered a period like COVID where Trump and his allies are promoting magical thinking - it's all going to go away/it's all going to snap back. We are in a discontinuity now, and all this data we are getting lags weeks behind what is happening right now. What I am most concerned about is how we are not repeatedly shocking our economy - tariffs, mass deportations, tourism crash, and now an energy shock, a commodity shock, an inflation shock, a "Trump batshit crazy" shock, and potentially a fiscal shock. We have no idea where this is going to go for the system has been thrown out of balance and going through cascading and reinforcing shocks. It's like a car tumbling over in an accident. It may land on its wheels or it may also roll off the cliff. We are playing with fire, globally now, and have entered a deeply dangerous geopolitical and economic period. There is nothing good or reassuring about any of this data. We haven't seen a month of inflation like this outside COVID since the Carter era, and the world is not going to go back as it was. Keven Hassett said on TV this morning that the Strait of Hormuz won't open for another two months. If that is true expect massive downward revisions on all economic data.
OK. Merch. I have investigated merch. I am confident that I can easily set up a system, at no cost to Hopium (except possible tax consequences. I cannot provide tax advice), which will provide tee shirts with union bugs to the proud plucky patriots of Hopium, provide income to Hopium, and which will administer itself. Seriously. I am not making this up.
I REALLY NEED A GO-AHEAD FROM HOPIUM THOUGH.
So, yeah.
I hope our political leaders can focus on the out of control grift of the Military Industrial Complex’s complete failure to deliver. The majority of weapons and aircraft that they have delivered over the last few decades are a joke and are causing loss of life and defeat at astronomical $$$. This is unsustainable and robs citizens of the most basic human rights to healthcare, a clean environment, affordable housing and so much more.
No more crusades!
So grateful for all your hard work. You are an important voice leading us.
You were terrific last night at Democratic Women’s event. You are a great speaker and generous spirit.
Really a treat to meet you in person.
Thank you, Simon. Each morning I watch for your analysis of what is happening.
Self-report: Yesterday instead of postcards I did letters for Vote Forward. I like that they provide pdf files of letters with lots of information for voters. The writer just adds some more personal stuff. I'll take the letters to the post office today and will call my Congresspeople.
https://votefwd.org/instructions
Nice write up.
Well, Simon, you predicted that today's economic news would be grim and you were right. I was thinking yesterday on my walk about some neighbors I had who put up a sign in their yard before the 2024 election: Trump low prices/Kamala high prices. I thought at the time they were wrong.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say NO more money for ICE or this illegal war and that the president is insane and must be removed from office. I'm writing postcards to NC voters today.
YES! to a "new birth of freedom"!!! We rise from the trash bin to which Trump has tried to relegate us.
"wail(ing) til January is also an appropriate response😁.
Thank you Simon for this extremely informative report. Below, I’m posting a link I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts on. It touches on much of what we all discussed in the comments yesterday and this link centers around the ‘Election Autopsy.’ I’m going to warn that the commentary in the link by these two Dem strategists is not too rosy but given your experience and longer tenure than these two, I’d like to know if you agree/disagree with their overall assertion. They both claim much of our loss is due to Gaza. I can understand that on some level but am not sure I buy that as the driving factor. Nonetheless…
https://youtu.be/QlQRhAukdn8?si=a9wCZFIyWTsed611
I am going to express my frustration with this comment. 1) completely off topic from literally everything that is going on right now, a distraction, and dropping negative sentiment here, challenging my arguments. 2) For me to engage you are asking me to watch a video with people whom I am completely unfamiliar with, and do not appear to be strategists. Is asking me to watch some random video a reasonable thing? How much time each day should I spend on that? 30-60 minutes? 3) There is no data I am aware of from anywhere that suggests that Gaza was a major issue in the election in 2024. I am open to it, but do not believe it to be true. Nor do I believe any thing has been leaked from the autopsy. 4) Why in the world would you want to drag us back into this right now given that everything is going on? You watch some show, get riled up and come in here and dump it all over us without doing any kind of research? Imagine if people did that every day here? We would be Twitter.
Simon, I completely understand where you’re coming from and agree with your main assertion. You’re right…this was an inconsiderate move of me…unintended. It seems I fell into the trap so many of us do in that I let my concerns/emotions overshadow the winning trajectory we’re having all amidst the shit show we’re living through and that can’t nor should it be downplayed.
I think it’s because I take this particular issue personally and am bothered by some in the party who seem to take such a ‘scorched earth’ approach on Israel/Gaza and when I see figures like Carlson and MTG try to ‘open the doorway’ for low information voters with their ‘simple but misleading messaging,’ it borders on Antisemitism and I can’t help but feel there’s a bit of a concerning trend when I look to our left at people like Hassan Piker joining El-Sayed in MI, etc. It’s a party fracture I one, hope really isn’t there, and two, one that makes me uncomfortable if it is. Obv, something to be discussed another time if at all.
Also, you know how I feel about both your leadership and the community so again, apologies for the negative sentiment. We all need a good kick in the ass on occasion and righty so, today was my turn to get my ass kicked. Let’s keep winning 🙌🙏✌️💕.
I think it says a lot that Simon has never heard of the people in the video, and that he's also not seen any data from anywhere backing up their conclusion about Gaza as an issue. So I don't think there's a need to worry about this issue, Blake, even though there are people out there trying to stir it up.
My dream is that we get an FDR, JFK, or LBJ following Trump. A conversation between Heather Cox Richardson and Timothy Snyder offered a vision of how our government, and our country, could be be focused on creating the freedom to take risks, pursue opportunities, and rebuild the American dream was inspiring beyond belief. It was also deeply depressing as it held up a mirror to how our institutional failures are devastating. I'm an elder millenial. My wife and I are fortunate to own a home, but it is significantly inferior to the homes we grew up in, a perpetual reminder of how we are unable to provide our children with the same standard of living we had growing up.
And then I think about Gen Z, who never lived in a time where it felt like things were getting better and the American dream was viable. Home ownership is more fantasy than possibility. Having children would be effectively consigning their family to poverty.
But current leadership seems to think Republicans and MAGA will start acting "normal" once Trump is gone. Nevermind the Republican scorched earth "if we tear the country in half, we can pick up the bigger half" tactics that predate Trump, extending all the way back to Bill Clinton, or the far right SCOTUS majority that makes nakedly political rulings without basis in law or precedent, or the billionaire / Epstein class that has seen Trump in action and is going in to overdrive with campaign contributions to PROTECT HIM AND MAGA!! Current leadership has no plan for what to do when Republicans keep doing what they have been doing for decades, more concerned with maintaining norms that Republicans have abandoned without paying a political price, or thinking outside the box like Montana is for campaign contributions, or contemplating SCOTUS reforms such as expanding the court.
Thanks, Derek, for the shoutout to Montana and the Transparent Election Initiative (aka The Montana Plan). We are in the signature gathering phase and need to have around 30,000 by the June 19th deadline. It's all volunteer - no paid signature gatherers. Other states have enjoined the battle though are in an earlier stage. Last time I checked there were around 30 states on the list. https://transparentelection.org
Two articles worth a read.
NPR, on the growing cracks within the military and the number of people who are getting out or seeking to do so, which began long before Iran, but Iran has definitely accelerated: https://www.npr.org/2026/04/10/nx-s1-5771612/military-iran-war-trump-conscientious-objector
NBC News, on the desperate (and failing) lengths Trump is willing to go to get revenge on Republicans who have stood in the way of his efforts to rig the election, in this case to get a MAGA (who has the same last name as his preferred candidate) out of a primary against an Indiana state senator who refused to go along with his gerrymander: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/white-house-failed-push-candidate-indiana-republican-senate-primary-rcna267361
When Iran shot down two of our planes this weekend, they said they were able to do this thanks to a "new defense system." Guess where they got it, a year ahead of when it was originally supposed to be delivered?
https://creativepoli.net/russia_russia_russia
This on top of the destruction of a $300M AWACS plane on the ground thanks to targeting info provided by the same country ( https://creativepoli.net/awacs_russia ). I sure hope someone is making sure everyone in active service knows that the guy whose illegal orders they keep following is giving that country access to billions in oil revenues as punishment for these acts and even lifting their own blockade on Cuba to help with the transactions.
And making sure everyone in MAGA knows their guy is now officially a red-handed traitor (without saying that directly, of course). According to a Pew study conducted a year ago, even among Republicans, Russia's approval rating is only 16% and only 16% have any confidence in Putin to "do the right thing." I can't imagine that percentage has increased, but I can certainly imagine it has declined.
“And given the gravity of the economic damage that has already occurred, and the dangerous geopolitical the war has unleashed on the world, there is no snapping back to a before time. Everything will be different now, and probably much worse for the US and the world.”
I have been thinking about this a lot. When Democrats attack Democrats, it always sounds like, “Why didn’t sane people anticipate insanity? Why didn’t outsiders have all the insider information? Why didn’t the minority overpower and stop the majority?”
As Americans realize their mistake in electing T****, they are going to look to Democrats to put things “back to normal.” I think they will expect the next Democratic administration to put the treaties back, put the government agencies back, and put all the squandered wealth back.
But there isn’t an undo button in real life. Even with years of hard work, we will still have a big jagged scar and some pain all the time. The new normal might not be terrible. If we can convince people to stay in their “higher gear,” it might even be excellent. But it will never be the old normal.
People will have to keep up their volunteering and donations, basically from now on. But I can’t even convince some of my friends and family, who are smart and capable, to write postcards or call their electeds.
I hope the one good thing that comes of this is that the electorate realizes the importance of good governance/governing ability. It absolutely matters. Ideas/slogans/memes/podcasts are all good but not sufficient. The temperament, intelligence, and thoughtfulness (and, experience would be good) to govern has to be a non-negotiable qualification. It used to be, but that went away in 2016. I hope that's one part of "normal" that snaps back.
Right on, JE and RP. Trump voters are learning what most of us outside the MAGA bubble knew -- that governance is serious business and putting an 'easy button' at the Resolute Desk just doesn't cut it.
Easy button, that’s a good one.
This is what happens when he no longer has Obama's economy to coast on. He actually had to do something this time, because that's what people elected him for. And, here we are. Governed by a guy who went bankrupt 7 times, including a casino. Why anyone thought he was some sort of business whiz/economic genius is just beyond me, and the economy, and state of affairs in general, is reflecting that ineptitude.
Funny thing is, he did not actually have to do anything.
The economy Joe Biden left was very strong indeed and was only going to get better. 'Envy of the rest of the world' as per the economist, if I remember rightly.
Trump could have done nothing, then reaped the rewards and claimed all the credit. The media would have lapped it up no doubt!!
But he just could not help himself and so we get this mess.
Unfortunately, the can't help himself thing is the story of his whole life. He can't leave well enough alone with ANYTHING.