Florida definitely seems to be in play. Emerson has Mucarsel-Powell only one single point behind Rick Scott in the Senate race, while Trump leads Harris by only 3 points. In Texas, the lead is only 4 points. We can take Florida – at least the Senate seat.
On the economic front, the Fed should have started cutting interest rates in March. They’re behind the curve.
Speaking of Florida…Rebekah Jones,the Covid statistician who wouldn’t falsify data so DeSantis ruined her career, was targeted by Pool, one of the Russian/Right-wing influencers.She didn’t believe she’d be high enough on the list for a Russian investment.
Also speaking of Florida, working to GOTV with Amendment 4/Reproductive Freedom on the ballot!
Last call for writing postcards with RAC-FL.✍️No donation required.
The Reform Movement through RAC-FL and Women of Reform Judaism is partnering with the "YES on 4, Floridians Protecting Freedom" campaign to protect reproductive freedom through a November ballot amendment.
📲Regular texts to extended family reminding them to vote, check voter reg status and screenshot,Vote YES on Amendment 4 and NO to retain DeSantis’ Supreme Court Extremees/Nominees: Sasso and Francis.
I think the Harris campaign did the bus tour as a test balloon for FL enthusiasm, and the people are enthusiastic!! People are lining the streets just to see the bus (Kamala and Tim aren’t on it) because they want to be a part of what’s happening. I think Florida is in play…
Turnout! As in many swing states, the election in Florida will all be decided by GOTV of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. The abortion amendment should help our side a lot.
This is why DeSantis has started a very questionable and anti-democratic "investigation of fraud" with regards to signature collection; he is desperately trying to remove the abortion amendment from the ballot.
In Florida, we also need a strong campaign highlighting Trump’s threat to Social Security.
Yep, me too. Lawrence is the only MSNBC commentator who reports what is being done to fight back against those who want to destroy OUR democracy. This is in contrast to many MSNBC commentators who simply report outrage, or “what do you worry about” but don’t offer any solutions.
I found Simon’s post on the former Twitter interesting, since it highlights not just the way Trump is compromised but the free fall the Republican Party is in. I believe Collins and Murkowski have announced they won’t vote for Trump. It will be interesting to see how many more try to separate themselves from what the party has become.
Murkowski is such an interesting politician to me, because she truly doesn’t need the GOP to keep her seat. I’ve been waiting and hoping for her to make a definitive break with the party- maybe it’s happening now…
What I still want to see is people like Chris Christie and Mitt Romney, people who no longer have political careers, endorse Harris. Go ask Liz Cheney to lend you some of her backbone, guys, and make the endorsement!
Here in Missouri litigation to change Sec. of State Ashcroft's biased language regarding the abortion rights ballot initiative was overturned and rewritten by the court. They are still trying to derail the vote, but the people of Missouri will finally speak directly on reproductive freedom. AND in the do something category, yesterday I filled out the form to get an absentee ballot for my disabled mother. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO STATE VOTING DEADLINES!
Yes, we do. Plenty of work to do. And obviously, we'll all continue to work. But this may not be resolved quickly and probably not in our favor. It's a deeply discouraging setback here in NC, a state that can/should be in play. There's little time/money/and this may run out the clock on absentee ballots. And our election officials are already overworked and underpaid. I'll return to hope tomorrow. Actually, in an hour, since I need to write a newsletter for volunteers.
Son of a....those b*stards probably won't allow an extension of mail-in ballots deadline, either. This is why campaigns are expensive--we need lawyers to protect our rights!!!
The first two paragraphs you have written above, plus the final one, could be part of the house-to-house literature (and trained talking points) for canvassers across the country.
If you are looking for an effective way to help the Kamala/Walz campaign, please go to www.VoteRiders.org. They really need volunteers to help voters in battleground states like Pennsylvania that have confusing voter ID laws. Many of the newly registered voters who registered after the Democratic National Convention (especially first time voters) won’t be able to vote if they don’t have the proper ID — VoteRiders volunteers reach out via letters and texting and also work one-on-one to arrange for rides to the DMV or other agencies to obtain the proper IDs.
Since 2022, many states have made their voter ID regulations much stricter so please spread the word that everyone should check their voter registration at www.Vote.org. Don't assume that you are registered even if you are a long-time voter.
Also, if you can give a week to go to canvass in a battleground state, go to www.turnoutpac.org (Progressive Turnout Project), which will pay $250/day for two three hour door-knocking sessions, which would defray your travel costs.
Sarah, you could do outreach for them by writing letters or texting or train as a Voter Assistance Volunteer to help people virtually to obtain their proper voter IDs. It will make a big impact on their lives and help the Kamala/Walz campaign.
I was deeply gratified today when I followed the link on CNN that answers questions about voting. First, I double checked my voting by mail ballot will be sent ASAP. Then I checked their "About the Candidates" link: They had good things to say about Kamala, but NOTHING GOOD TO SAY ABOUT TRUMP! They list his crimes and his impeachments, and that he has continued to lie about losing the election in 2020.
I have to admit I was surprised not to see a single attempt to "both sides" the comparison. Any MAGAs that check the site will be very disappointed. WOOT WOOT!
Scoping out where I might find a critical mass of Duke University students to register them since the chickensh*t Duke administration has decided--after YEARS of allowing non-students to register students to vote--not to allow "outsiders" on campus to vote unless they are formally sanctioned by the university. And the university is not even sanctioning alumni who want to do the work.
R, I get the impression that the administration is so afraid of Gaza protests as the university celebrates its 100 year anniversary that they will do whatever they can to protect the brand. Too bad protecting the brand means voter suppression.
Friends, please read the article. This is a complicated situation forced upon schools by a right wing legislature. And given the role outsiders played in the campus violence we saw last spring asking outside folks to be cleared by the university is not an unreasonabe policy. At Tufts where I am an alum and spent a lot of time over the past 20 years the very intense voter reg work was done by student groups, and did not need outside support. All universities are going to be wary about allowing outsiders on campus for the forseeable future. I am not backing Duke here but these are complicated issues on all campuses right now, made far worse by the ridiculous new law in NC.
It’s so frustrating that both far left and right wing crazies are openly opposed to the Democracy process. I’m not saying that the Gaza protests aren’t based on merit, but going crazy and destructive isn’t the answer. Yes, I’m aware that there was far right extremism that infiltrated the protests as well.
We just have to work harder in Durham to compensate. The student-led voter registration efforts at Duke have traditionally been lackluster which is why we have stepped in to help. I am hoping these students demand more from their university. They are paying 90K a year to be there and shouldn't be paying for the luxury of having their votes suppressed!
Great question! I sent 800 texts to PA to register voters via Field Team 6!!! Also posting a lot on many social media groups I'm in that are pro-Harris, sharing pics of the phonebanking my group just did for Harris Walz and giving them the resources they need to get involved! Great question you ask, we should be asking ourselves this every day. I plan to do another phonebank session this weekend. LFG.
Great interview on MSNBC - thank you Simon for everything you have done. Just donated to AZ for Ruben Gallego. We have to win down ballot as well and secure both the house and senate. Love to have HOPE and not fear.
Can someone explain why so many people are posting their concerns on social media about Nate Silver’s model favoring Trump? From my understanding, his model is predicting the probability of an outcome, not a vote percentage. If that is the case it still shows a close and winnable race for Vice President Harris.
Per Robert Hubbell in Today’s Edition Substack, Nate Silver is financed by far right wing mega donor Peter Theil. Theil also financed the deplorable, really weird J D Vance campaign for Senate. I don’t believe polls. I believe how many new voter registrations are happening.
Yes!!! Nate is a maga voter & supporter. He did vote for Obama in 2008 but has gone gop since. He started making big $$ and and wanted tax cuts for the wealthy. If you follow him long enough & frequently enough, he has left numerous breadcrumbs on his positioning. Him becoming a Thiel stooge was only inevitable. I wish him he media would call him out as a partisan.
I'm hopeful we win now but I'm still concerned about the future. Simon rightly points out the corruption and Russian (and likely other) penetration of the GOP. What I don't see is when Trump is gone how the GOP ever recovers. I don't see anyone in the GOP who can wash the stain away and lead. And the MAGA base isn't going anywhere. Who's going to lead them? And how? The best we can hope for is the GOP spends maybe 10-20 years as a regional "party" until someone can find a way for them to become an actual political party the can compete nationally. Right now I think "zombie is to human as the GOP is to a political party" is the right analogy.
This series of revelations about the extent of the Russian influence on the Republican Party feels like the end of The Fly—remember right at the end, when Jeff Goldblum splits down the middle and the monster he has become is fully revealed, because his human exterior was just a husk? It FEELS like that, but we who inhabit reality have known for years that the GOP is compromised, and nothing seemed to come of it. Pardon my ignorance, but will this really be different?
Florida definitely seems to be in play. Emerson has Mucarsel-Powell only one single point behind Rick Scott in the Senate race, while Trump leads Harris by only 3 points. In Texas, the lead is only 4 points. We can take Florida – at least the Senate seat.
On the economic front, the Fed should have started cutting interest rates in March. They’re behind the curve.
Speaking of Florida…Rebekah Jones,the Covid statistician who wouldn’t falsify data so DeSantis ruined her career, was targeted by Pool, one of the Russian/Right-wing influencers.She didn’t believe she’d be high enough on the list for a Russian investment.
Also speaking of Florida, working to GOTV with Amendment 4/Reproductive Freedom on the ballot!
Last call for writing postcards with RAC-FL.✍️No donation required.
The Reform Movement through RAC-FL and Women of Reform Judaism is partnering with the "YES on 4, Floridians Protecting Freedom" campaign to protect reproductive freedom through a November ballot amendment.
https://rac.org/take-action/rac-your-state/rac-fl/guidelines-writing-postcards-floridians-about-reproductive-freedom
Weekly phonebanking with Floridians Protecting Reproductive Freedom.📲
https://www.mobilize.us/yes4florida/
Got my Yes on 4 t-shirt and yard sign.👕🪧
https://store.floridiansprotectingfreedom.com/
📲Regular texts to extended family reminding them to vote, check voter reg status and screenshot,Vote YES on Amendment 4 and NO to retain DeSantis’ Supreme Court Extremees/Nominees: Sasso and Francis.
Hi Kathy, I was on a Zoom with People Power United earlier in the week and they are writing postcards for FL - both partisan and non-partisan.
Check out their psotcard designs here with one especially for FL: https://www.etsy.com/shop/peoplepowerunited/?etsrc=sdt§ion_id=50211503
Request Scripts, names and addresses here: https://actionnetwork.org/forms/postcards-to-voters-inspire-people-to-take-action-and-make-a-difference-in-your-community
Yay Cheryl, we've sent out hundreds of Florida VBM cards! GO Team Hopium GO!!!
Just signed up for postcards ...
I think the Harris campaign did the bus tour as a test balloon for FL enthusiasm, and the people are enthusiastic!! People are lining the streets just to see the bus (Kamala and Tim aren’t on it) because they want to be a part of what’s happening. I think Florida is in play…
ArcticStones,
For the Senate race, What do you believe takes our Dem. candidate over the finish line?
Turnout! As in many swing states, the election in Florida will all be decided by GOTV of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. The abortion amendment should help our side a lot.
This is why DeSantis has started a very questionable and anti-democratic "investigation of fraud" with regards to signature collection; he is desperately trying to remove the abortion amendment from the ballot.
In Florida, we also need a strong campaign highlighting Trump’s threat to Social Security.
"The Last Word" is the only program on MSNBC that is a must watch for me. O'Donnell is great. Also, that's where I first saw Simon. 😁
Me too, that is where we first saw Simon…with a great into…he is always correct in his analysis .
Yep, me too. Lawrence is the only MSNBC commentator who reports what is being done to fight back against those who want to destroy OUR democracy. This is in contrast to many MSNBC commentators who simply report outrage, or “what do you worry about” but don’t offer any solutions.
I found Simon’s post on the former Twitter interesting, since it highlights not just the way Trump is compromised but the free fall the Republican Party is in. I believe Collins and Murkowski have announced they won’t vote for Trump. It will be interesting to see how many more try to separate themselves from what the party has become.
Murkowski is such an interesting politician to me, because she truly doesn’t need the GOP to keep her seat. I’ve been waiting and hoping for her to make a definitive break with the party- maybe it’s happening now…
What I still want to see is people like Chris Christie and Mitt Romney, people who no longer have political careers, endorse Harris. Go ask Liz Cheney to lend you some of her backbone, guys, and make the endorsement!
As long as they endorse Harris-Walz that’s great. I will look for more on this when my hand is too tired from writing postcards!
Just extraordinary, Simon -- you are grasping the historic moment while it is in progress!
and remember we are not bystanders to this moment - we are helping create it.
Democracy is not a spectator sport -- or, often, any kind of sport.
Here in Missouri litigation to change Sec. of State Ashcroft's biased language regarding the abortion rights ballot initiative was overturned and rewritten by the court. They are still trying to derail the vote, but the people of Missouri will finally speak directly on reproductive freedom. AND in the do something category, yesterday I filled out the form to get an absentee ballot for my disabled mother. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO STATE VOTING DEADLINES!
Trump is melting down today after the E. Jean Carroll court appearance.
One snippet I saw was Trump, flanked by his lawyers, complaining about how bad his legal representation is. 😅
"An idiot hired my lawyers. Oh, wait..."
Arrghh. Court just paused mailing out absentee ballots in North Carolina until an appeals court hears RFK Jr.'s demand to be removed from the ballot (which is already printed!) Talk about a spoiler. https://www.wral.com/story/start-of-mail-in-voting-delayed-in-nc-as-rfk-jr-s-lawsuit-leads-to-court-ordered-pause/21611716/
Yes, we do. Plenty of work to do. And obviously, we'll all continue to work. But this may not be resolved quickly and probably not in our favor. It's a deeply discouraging setback here in NC, a state that can/should be in play. There's little time/money/and this may run out the clock on absentee ballots. And our election officials are already overworked and underpaid. I'll return to hope tomorrow. Actually, in an hour, since I need to write a newsletter for volunteers.
Son of a....those b*stards probably won't allow an extension of mail-in ballots deadline, either. This is why campaigns are expensive--we need lawyers to protect our rights!!!
They ought to force him to pay for reprinting them
Well, he's losing everywhere else, hopefully he will in NC, too!
The first two paragraphs you have written above, plus the final one, could be part of the house-to-house literature (and trained talking points) for canvassers across the country.
If you are looking for an effective way to help the Kamala/Walz campaign, please go to www.VoteRiders.org. They really need volunteers to help voters in battleground states like Pennsylvania that have confusing voter ID laws. Many of the newly registered voters who registered after the Democratic National Convention (especially first time voters) won’t be able to vote if they don’t have the proper ID — VoteRiders volunteers reach out via letters and texting and also work one-on-one to arrange for rides to the DMV or other agencies to obtain the proper IDs.
Since 2022, many states have made their voter ID regulations much stricter so please spread the word that everyone should check their voter registration at www.Vote.org. Don't assume that you are registered even if you are a long-time voter.
Also, if you can give a week to go to canvass in a battleground state, go to www.turnoutpac.org (Progressive Turnout Project), which will pay $250/day for two three hour door-knocking sessions, which would defray your travel costs.
Just donated to Vote Riders! If I'm not in a swing state, is there anything else specific I can do to help them?
Sarah, you could do outreach for them by writing letters or texting or train as a Voter Assistance Volunteer to help people virtually to obtain their proper voter IDs. It will make a big impact on their lives and help the Kamala/Walz campaign.
Thank you!
All great ideas, thank you thank you! I'm in many FB pro-Dems groups, I'll share the www.vote.org widely!
Just signed up for a couple of their text banks, thank you!
I was deeply gratified today when I followed the link on CNN that answers questions about voting. First, I double checked my voting by mail ballot will be sent ASAP. Then I checked their "About the Candidates" link: They had good things to say about Kamala, but NOTHING GOOD TO SAY ABOUT TRUMP! They list his crimes and his impeachments, and that he has continued to lie about losing the election in 2020.
I have to admit I was surprised not to see a single attempt to "both sides" the comparison. Any MAGAs that check the site will be very disappointed. WOOT WOOT!
A NYT opinion piece and video by Alan Lichetmann has HARRIS WINNING!! I believe it will happen.
Do you have an assessment of NC district 1 congressional race?
Good morning, fellow Hopioids! What are you doing today to help Kamala Harris get elected President?
Scoping out where I might find a critical mass of Duke University students to register them since the chickensh*t Duke administration has decided--after YEARS of allowing non-students to register students to vote--not to allow "outsiders" on campus to vote unless they are formally sanctioned by the university. And the university is not even sanctioning alumni who want to do the work.
This on top of making it harder for students to get voter IDs. https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2024/09/090524-schramkowski-clayton-peck-duke-must-protect-voting-rights
Not giving up!
So the university is actively participating in voter suppression? How much you wanna bet the administrators of the university are bigtime trumpers?!?
R, I get the impression that the administration is so afraid of Gaza protests as the university celebrates its 100 year anniversary that they will do whatever they can to protect the brand. Too bad protecting the brand means voter suppression.
Friends, please read the article. This is a complicated situation forced upon schools by a right wing legislature. And given the role outsiders played in the campus violence we saw last spring asking outside folks to be cleared by the university is not an unreasonabe policy. At Tufts where I am an alum and spent a lot of time over the past 20 years the very intense voter reg work was done by student groups, and did not need outside support. All universities are going to be wary about allowing outsiders on campus for the forseeable future. I am not backing Duke here but these are complicated issues on all campuses right now, made far worse by the ridiculous new law in NC.
This is great insight. Thanks, Simon.
It’s so frustrating that both far left and right wing crazies are openly opposed to the Democracy process. I’m not saying that the Gaza protests aren’t based on merit, but going crazy and destructive isn’t the answer. Yes, I’m aware that there was far right extremism that infiltrated the protests as well.
We just have to work harder in Durham to compensate. The student-led voter registration efforts at Duke have traditionally been lackluster which is why we have stepped in to help. I am hoping these students demand more from their university. They are paying 90K a year to be there and shouldn't be paying for the luxury of having their votes suppressed!
I’ve got 200 postcards I’m getting ready for PA. I smell victory in the air.
Patrick, so glad ya asked! I'm doing postcards! Batches of 50! Nearly 2000 out the door this year, 600 more at the ready!
GO Team Hopium GO GO GO Together we are a TEAM !! 🥥🌴💪 Love you all!!
Great question! I sent 800 texts to PA to register voters via Field Team 6!!! Also posting a lot on many social media groups I'm in that are pro-Harris, sharing pics of the phonebanking my group just did for Harris Walz and giving them the resources they need to get involved! Great question you ask, we should be asking ourselves this every day. I plan to do another phonebank session this weekend. LFG.
Postcards. Door knocking tomorrow.
Great interview on MSNBC - thank you Simon for everything you have done. Just donated to AZ for Ruben Gallego. We have to win down ballot as well and secure both the house and senate. Love to have HOPE and not fear.
thank you!!!!!!!!!!!
Can someone explain why so many people are posting their concerns on social media about Nate Silver’s model favoring Trump? From my understanding, his model is predicting the probability of an outcome, not a vote percentage. If that is the case it still shows a close and winnable race for Vice President Harris.
We follow 538 here not Nate Silver. That's it. No reason to talk about it any further. We have more important things to do.
I didn't even realize he was no longer with 538 until a month ago.
Per Robert Hubbell in Today’s Edition Substack, Nate Silver is financed by far right wing mega donor Peter Theil. Theil also financed the deplorable, really weird J D Vance campaign for Senate. I don’t believe polls. I believe how many new voter registrations are happening.
Not surprising that Lex Luther is behind him
Yes!!! Nate is a maga voter & supporter. He did vote for Obama in 2008 but has gone gop since. He started making big $$ and and wanted tax cuts for the wealthy. If you follow him long enough & frequently enough, he has left numerous breadcrumbs on his positioning. Him becoming a Thiel stooge was only inevitable. I wish him he media would call him out as a partisan.
I'm hopeful we win now but I'm still concerned about the future. Simon rightly points out the corruption and Russian (and likely other) penetration of the GOP. What I don't see is when Trump is gone how the GOP ever recovers. I don't see anyone in the GOP who can wash the stain away and lead. And the MAGA base isn't going anywhere. Who's going to lead them? And how? The best we can hope for is the GOP spends maybe 10-20 years as a regional "party" until someone can find a way for them to become an actual political party the can compete nationally. Right now I think "zombie is to human as the GOP is to a political party" is the right analogy.
See Robert Reich predict this moment back in the 1990's. That clip is in first five minutes:
https://youtu.be/UQp8Lj7jPvQ?si=awM0IslYcMZRRjkY
Robert Reich is a genius. I wonder if he’d be a possible candidate for Harris administration?!?!
We do not know what these elected officials, including 🍊 man, has shared with our enemies. It is worrisome for half the country at least. 🤔
Maga was always here. Just no leader until T . They will shrink again and we lead with Truth, Justice and the American Way.
This series of revelations about the extent of the Russian influence on the Republican Party feels like the end of The Fly—remember right at the end, when Jeff Goldblum splits down the middle and the monster he has become is fully revealed, because his human exterior was just a husk? It FEELS like that, but we who inhabit reality have known for years that the GOP is compromised, and nothing seemed to come of it. Pardon my ignorance, but will this really be different?