People onine love to say things like "I voted for Biden in 2020 but I can't bring myself to vote for him this year." But it's really hard to distinguish people who say that and mean it from people who are lying (for any number of reasons). NYT will happily interview people who say things like that, and act like it's front page news. But we're a country of over 300 million people. It shouldn't be be a surprise that they exist. There are also people who would say the same about Trump, the difference is NYT doesn't interview those people.
I feel the same. People will say whatever online, and there’s so much bot farming and disinformation and algorithm interference, you can’t believe it. Looking at how people are voting, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of dissatisfaction from Dem voters.
many of these posts we see on social media are not real people, not authentic speech. We know there has been a lot of foreign nation state involvement in this issue, and yes a lot of bs.
I understand Muslim voters being upset about the war, but what do they expect Biden to do? One side of the war is a democracy and a stalwart ally, the other is literally a terrorist organization that aims to kill Jews, chants "death to America," and wants to establish an Islamic dictatorship.
I got an email from the New York Times about some interview they did with a Muslim voter in Michigan and I emailed them and unsubscribed from the newsletter, which I had never signed up for. I hate being bombarded with the endless MUSLIMS HATE BIDEN ALSO BIDEN IS OLD articles, and it seems like I can't even avoid them after cancelling my subscription.
Amen. I am constantly surprised that so many Americans seem to think that President Biden is the Prime Minister of Israel. He is not. Bibi is, and Bibi does what Bibi does — and what he does is always, first and last, to benefit himself. Virtually every single good thing that has happened for the Palestinian people since the beginning of this horrible war has been due to the efforts of President Biden and his team — efforts that even Netanyahu, certainly no great friend to Biden, termed “tireless.“
I understand your frustration completely. If I see one more article about Biden being old I think I will throw up. We can all count. Intelligence matters. Understanding the value of democracy matters. Getting things done in government matters. We've all grasped the age issue. I think our best shot is trying to stay as well-informed as possible and stay connected to people who read beyond the headlines.
Putin is 70. Netanyahu is 74. Trump is 77. None of these wannabe cock-of-the-walks are spring chickens and all of them are excessively greedy and selfish.
There are 5 open US House seats in NC and the Republicans running for them all seem to think that they are running against Biden instead of their GOP competitors in the primary.
One guy who isn't a spring chicken himself, has mentioned Biden's age as an impediment. TI googled him and it turns out he is 74 himself and has NO legislative experience - he is a farmer and "businessman. Yeah that is just what we need an Inexperienced 74-yo freshman!
I have felt the conflict in Gaza presents President Biden with an enormous challenge. The way he and Blinken have worked with Arab states suggests their ideas (as well as those of the CIA director assisting negotiation) receive support in the region. Thank you for a careful analysis of this difficult issue.
Nate Cohn, the NYTimes polling guru printed his twisted justification for why polls have been wrong. Basically, he admits the polls are Republican biased and polls ignore the outsized commitment of Democrats to winning every election through 2024. Therefore the polls have been off by 7-8%WOW! what a surprise.
Please write to Cohn and Times leadership about the great dangers of the papers bias is creating by "normalizing" Trump.
Thank you for printing Nate Cohn's "Three Points" in which he justified his far beyond the "margin of error" poll results for our recent primary elections. Cutting through Mr. Cohn's pseudo statistical language, current polls have been overstating Trump's strength and understating Biden or other opposing candidates strength because the survey groups have been Republican/Trump biased. And also because pollsters have consistently ignored the intense commitment Democrats have brought to winning elections in the past two years.
Worse than poorly forecasting recent election results, the Republican biased polls and your team's analysis have created the false narrative that Americans broadly oppose President Biden 1st term performance and would prefer Donald Trump. Does the Times believe the truth exists in the exaggerated FOX echo chamber of the Trump campaign? Start talking to Democrats to truthfully balance the paper's reporting and remove Nate Cohn from political analysis.
It is very, very dangerous for the Times, the paper of record for American news, to continue following its Republican confirmation bias with invalid polling and create the false impression that America wants Trump and his vision of the US.
Thank you for that heartfelt, thoughtful write up, Simon. It has gotten too emotional for me to talk about. I have suggested resources for others here in the past, but I am going to just send people here when the topic comes up.
Thank you so much for including that clip of the Polish ambassador to the UN rebutting the lies of the Russia ambassador. It is nice to see that there are countries on the world stage who hold the Russians accountable and the reasons why they do. The Poles and the Ukrainians have suffered so much at the hands of the Russians and Germans since the 18th century. Anyone interested in more on this subject should read Timothy Snyder's book, The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Belarus, 1569 - 1999.
One thing I've noticed about those who criticize or outright condemn Biden for his actions, or what's perceived as inaction, thus far on the Israel/Hamas conflict is they offer no real solutions, no real answers to basic questions that are fully thought through to the likely result which may be a larger more catastrophic conflict.
Very well put regarding Gaza situation, Simon. It's a messy issue and one that people have understandably complicated views on. I count myself amongst that crowd. Do I wish like hell that Biden had NOT hugged Netanyahu ? - hell yes. Do I wish he would come out more forcefully against him? Again hell yes! Am I going to let that make me sit this out election & increase the chances of the keys being handed back to a raging authoritarian whom wants decimate democracies, make lives of of all stripes infinitely worse in all ways you've pointed out numerous times (save of course for the resource hoarding Oligarchs whom will pearl clutch in public at his antics - but will go with it preserve their precious tax cuts) all stemming from daddy issues ?! ABSOLUTELY NOT!!! To paraphrase what others have said there has never been a president I agreed with 100% of the time. Leaders - even admirable ones - are HUMAN! They make blunders - even bad ones sometimes, they can be badly advised, they can be gaffe prone - just like the rest of us ! Biden is human, and I have some disagreements with some of his actions his actions. However, unlike the other choice there is a human being in there - one whom has busted his ass to make life better for people of all walks of life. I will continue to donate and work for our standard bearer. There is no perfect choice - there never has been - but like 2020 Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is far and away the best choice we have before us. Let us all continue to spread Hopium & work hard to help carry this hardworking president to victory.
Simon you are one of the best 'Democratic Strategists' around. You clearly answer all questions. Thank you for all of your thoughts in today's newsletter. I am 100% in agreement with you.
💯”his embrace of Putin prior to October 7th remains at the top of my list.” Bibi’s failure to stand up for Ukraine was utterly unforgivable. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Simon, I have always found you to be very balanced on the horrors happening in Israel/Palestine. I have both Jewish and Arabic friends and I want peace and prosperity for everyone in that part of the world. Joe has a limited role to play and Bibi obviously has power to hold onto which affects what's happening. I understand our Arabic friends being upset with the limited role we have there, but when it comes to the election, I know they won't/can't vote for Trump. Our challenge is to make sure they feel a part of the process enough that they don't stay home on Election Day. Joe is the President for everyone, and I, for one, am very proud to have Muslim and Jewish friends who are part of the great richness of the US. And Bibi needs to go for sure, but that's up to the Israeli people, not us.
I understand that aas a pollster for the Democratic Party it's your job to uphold the status quo of the party. And you're absolutely right that Biden has been a very effective president, in spite of his reflexively aggressive and oh-so-twentieth-century foreign policy views. the problem you have is convincing young democrat-leaning 18-35 year-olds to vote for him. You cannot turn a blind eye to his age, his own negative charisma, and his decidedly uncharismatic Vice President. I'm in my 70s and have never voted for a Republican. I'm sure I'll maintain this record for the rest of my life. But you cannot ignore what's staring you in the face. The Dems have not cultivated younger leadership since Obama. It's not too late to dump Biden in favor of a candidate who can continue his excellent domestic policies, but can ignite a fire i the minds of younger voters. Gretchen Whitmer comes to mind. You simply cannot count on Dems to turn out for Biden even though they are aware of the evil oponent.
I just want to say one thing about this - the idea is he not out there is ridiculous. He keeps an unbelievably aggressive schedule. He travels all the time domestically and internationally. He does multiple on camera events almost every day. I think there is an argument he actually does too much not too little. Joe Biden is a work horse not a show horse. He isn't going to pop the way Obama did, or the way Trump does in a terrible way. He is who he is. He is our candidate. And our job is go out there and help him win this thing.
Just my two cents about this that I've been percolating on for many months now....I think as a family we misunderstand how badly we have been losing the "organizational" game to the Rs for the better part of the last 60 years....just the blocking and tackling of building voter lists, canvassing, phonebanking, and state based organization with strong local infrastructure in counties and cities. (That is certainly no longer the case, but I believe it was more or less for a few decades there). We were spoiled with two extraordinary candidates in the performative sense (who were also very good presidents btw) in Bill Clinton & Barack Obama. What I've come to understand is that every election comes down to the same group of variables.....overall public sentiment, organization and field operations, effectiveness of arguments, and candidate quality. NO campaign every scores 100% on every one of these metrics, and EVERY campaign has strengths and weaknesses. Bill Clinton & Barack Obama certainly had strength in the perception of their candidacies that Joe Biden doesn't have, but Joe has strength that neither of them have too. We just have to lean into the areas where we have an outsized advantage right now and help make up the gap where Joe doesn't shine as brightly....but guess what? We had to do that for Bill Clinton & Barack Obama too! That's how presidents get elected....you lean into their strengths to offset any weaknesses, and you build an army of support. Personally, I'm more ecstatic about the potential for this election than I was about either of theirs because this is the first time I can remember in over 20 years of involvement and engagement that there is this broad of a focus on the Democratic Party at large all the way up and down the ballot rather than the myopic "presidency only" focus I've encountered for much of that time. If we build a tide that lifts all boats, we'll reelect Biden AND more importantly, give him the help he needs to navigate us to the other side of these assaults on our Democracy and liberal world order.
Short version: Biden is a MUCH better candidate than may in the D family perceive him to be, because he is running in the wake of two political unicorns with skills and talents on the performative side of politics that are just not common (not taking away from their substantive good work as presidents in saying that either). I think this is a WONDERFUL moment for the D party because it's going to teach us that we can win presidential elections, even in cycles where we don't have a generationally talented orator who is moviestar level good looking and charismatic. With all the love and respect in the world for both Clinton and Obama, there's nobody I want back in that chair for the situation we're facing right now than the man who is already in it....his wisdom, experience, and DEEP understanding of the structures that fuel our global peace and prosperity, and the origins of the movements that seek to undermine them is unmatched by literally any other viable candidate. He is the right person for the time, and history will one day sing his praises like few others. Let's get on the same page and help him score the decisive win his record of accomplishments and moment meeting wisdom deserve! #GameOn #TeamBiden #TeamUSA
Hey Evan….definitely not demeaning your concerns…..every candidate can lose and we can’t be complacent in the least. But I firmly believe that there are structural advantages in Biden’s favor this cycle that weren’t present in 2016 (the memory of which is the source of everyone’s collective anxiety)….and also, literally from the beginning of his run in 2019, nobody has believed he was up to the task politically or with enough vigor to do the job if he won…..and he has repeatedly made every doubter eat shit sandwiches lol. There’s a huge advantage in being so underestimated… When people tune in and see that he actually can string together, two sentences, and isn’t a daughter Ring old fool who has no idea where he is or what he’s doing… He’ll massively exceed their expectations. And Trump, will actually Shock the hell out of them because he has become a lunatic… And the closer we get to the election when low information voters finally get a glimpse of it, I think we will not have the trouble everyone’s worried about pulling the persuadable voters in our direction. Glad to be in the fight with you, because whatever your concerns are, I know it’s based on love of country and wanting what’s best for us all. 🇺🇸
It wasn't super timely, but there was a nice write-up yesterday in the Grassroots Connector about the genesis of the Biden write-in campaign for the NH primary:
Here's a commenter that agrees with everything and everybody about but still describes our candidate as a bumbling old washed up geriatric. He forgets about the most recent state of the union speech and the occasion of his official opening of his candidacy for reelection. There are many other examples that directly contradict the assertion of negative charisma. I am greatly comforted by his tremendous experience and wisdom and of his ACCOMPLISHMENTS, even with a hugely disfuntional Congress in the last 1 1/2 years. These are strengths, not weaknesses. If he were to fall, his VP is more than qualified to carry the torch, even if not as charismatic as you might hope.
Here's a commenter that agrees with everything and everybody about Biden but still describes our candidate as a bumbling old washed up geriatric. He forgets about the most recent state of the union speech and the occasion of his official opening of his candidacy for reelection. There are many other examples that directly contradict the assertion of negative charisma. I am greatly comforted by his tremendous experience and wisdom and of his ACCOMPLISHMENTS, even with a hugely disfuntional Congress in the last 1 1/2 years. These are strengths, not weaknesses. If he were to fall, his VP is more than qualified to carry the torch, even if not as charismatic as you might hope.
This is the HC train aimed at getting Biden- Harris elected. All the while being a very savvy group fully aware of the challenges and imperfections. No eyes closed. And based on this administration doing such a darn good job trying to improve people’s lives and save our democracy. A tough job that takes the continuous “ hard work” we’ve all signed on to do. No guarantees but I pray everyday we are successful bc the alternative is civic madness.
Hard, hard work+ hope.
I’m so glad to be part of this tough, hardworking community.
Having Biden step down is the absolute worst thing the Democrats could do. Gretchen Whitmer polls worse than Biden against Trump. And there's no telling what skeletons she may have in her closet. Not that I think she has skeletons, but if she makes it through a primary there would be lots of time and effort put into finding out for sure before the choice is locked in. That would not be the case if the Democratic Party just annoints her their nominee at a convention. The risk is too high and the reward is too low, possibly even negative.
What are you talking about? Biden does not have "negative charisma." He is charming as hell, he is just old and younger people sometimes have problems connecting with oldder people. He was on Seth Meyer's show last night and he was personable, making jokes and having fun.
I think he needs a better answer to people who are concerned about the conflict in Gaza than, "you do do not have to be Jewish to be a Zionist, and I am a Zionist," but if the ceasefire they are currently negotiating goes into effect he will have much more room to make that argument.
Lastly, the only way the Dems will "dump Biden" is if Joe Biden gives his genuine blessing to pick another candidate because he think's it is in the countries interest. Out of every grievance I have heard about Joe Biden, I have not heard one person say they do not think he has the countries best interest at heart. Even among people who mainline fox news I have not heard that rationale.
Whitmer would be a great candidate - in 2028. I'm not sure I'll vote for her in the primary then, just because I don't know who the candidates will be. But at the very least I hope she makes a run.
Obviously it's Biden vs Trump in 2024, barring one of them having an unexpected health issue (keyword unexpected - the rediculous dementia talk doesn't count).
My fav future candidate is Josh Shapiro. But in part because I don't think Whitmer wants it. Meanwhile I'm praying for the good health of a certain candidate this year...
Yeah, there are a few obvious choices - Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom. But it could also be someone totally unknown today. I'm not getting too attached to anyone until we know who the candidates are, and what the challenges of that year are.
Also re lines of succession - Nancy Pelosi seems to have done a good job of stepping down and anointing Hakeem Jeffries as her successor. Presidential politics doesn't really work like that.
Yeah. Pelosi is amazing! Maybe presidential politics should emulate her just a tad...?
I worked in local politics for some years (volunteer) and some places
were good at grooming up-and-comers and they won elections. The past number of years that has not seemed to be the case. It's more free-for-all. Paying little attention to the constituency even. And that has not worked as well, at least not in local elections. I thought Biden would help put Harris in a better position, for example. I just think Republicans have always had an advantage because they didn't take things for granted -- the old "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line." Maybe it's not true but there seems to be some truth in it. That's why Hopium is so important; it gives each/all of us something concrete to do, leaving nothing to chance.
Fred, a few points: 1) nothing about what i've even done in my career has been about upholding the status quo. All of my work, from day 1, has been about imagining and building towards a better future - the opposite of upholding the status quo. 2) Show me data Biden is struggling with 18-35 year olds that is definitive. Here's the latest Harvard IOP poll of 18-29 year olds showing him holding close to his 2020 numbers - https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023 3) the idea we have not cultivated younger leadership is false and wrong, and easily rebutted. Go watch my interview with 26 year old Anderson Clayton on the site. 4) the kind of negative sentiment you express, gratuitous and disrespectful sentiment, is not welcome here. 5) every day we talk about how we will win this year ONLY if we do the work. If you are going to be an active member of this community need you to do better. Thank you.
Just finished a Zoom with Civics Center(Laura Brill) and Jake Tapper. Laura presented stats that 86% ! of registered voters 18-24 yrs voted in 2020, and in every election going back to 2004 > 75% o18-24 years voted. Laura also said a primary concern of this demographic is mental health. Do you see them voting for a deranged Trump??
“Let’s help ignite a fire in the minds of younger voters” …by encouraging them to vote. Donate, volunteer with the Civics Center:⬇️
You are so wrong about the Democrats' not cultivating younger politicians. We have several organizations devoted to that which did not exist in 2012. Biden himself has appointed several of the younger Democrats who ran against him and their supporters in 2020 to high level positions in his own administration. He boldly asked a woman of color to be his running mate. He appointed an openly gay mayor from Indiana (of all places) to be Secretary of Transportation. That has given national exposure to these very qualified people who are not his old cronies or corporate donors. Biden is preparing the Democrats to keep up with the needs of our time, even as it reflects the more progressive positions that Biden himself had not joined onto until later in his long political career.
Politics is the art of the possible. Biden knows that. We can do a lot now and a whole lot more later.
You're contradicting yourself in a single paragraph. If this is your considered opinion, you've been asleep the last several years. Look at the 2020 Democratic primary field and ask yourself how many of them are active politicians today. Look at Democratic governors and ask yourself if there aren't more than one with qualifications to run for president. Perhaps you simply haven't paid attention to those younger than yourself?
Love the Newsom clip! We all need to take his attitude, enough with the other side's narrative. Increasingly I see SR's messages getting out, being echoed, yay!
People onine love to say things like "I voted for Biden in 2020 but I can't bring myself to vote for him this year." But it's really hard to distinguish people who say that and mean it from people who are lying (for any number of reasons). NYT will happily interview people who say things like that, and act like it's front page news. But we're a country of over 300 million people. It shouldn't be be a surprise that they exist. There are also people who would say the same about Trump, the difference is NYT doesn't interview those people.
I feel the same. People will say whatever online, and there’s so much bot farming and disinformation and algorithm interference, you can’t believe it. Looking at how people are voting, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of dissatisfaction from Dem voters.
many of these posts we see on social media are not real people, not authentic speech. We know there has been a lot of foreign nation state involvement in this issue, and yes a lot of bs.
I understand Muslim voters being upset about the war, but what do they expect Biden to do? One side of the war is a democracy and a stalwart ally, the other is literally a terrorist organization that aims to kill Jews, chants "death to America," and wants to establish an Islamic dictatorship.
I got an email from the New York Times about some interview they did with a Muslim voter in Michigan and I emailed them and unsubscribed from the newsletter, which I had never signed up for. I hate being bombarded with the endless MUSLIMS HATE BIDEN ALSO BIDEN IS OLD articles, and it seems like I can't even avoid them after cancelling my subscription.
Amen. I am constantly surprised that so many Americans seem to think that President Biden is the Prime Minister of Israel. He is not. Bibi is, and Bibi does what Bibi does — and what he does is always, first and last, to benefit himself. Virtually every single good thing that has happened for the Palestinian people since the beginning of this horrible war has been due to the efforts of President Biden and his team — efforts that even Netanyahu, certainly no great friend to Biden, termed “tireless.“
I understand your frustration completely. If I see one more article about Biden being old I think I will throw up. We can all count. Intelligence matters. Understanding the value of democracy matters. Getting things done in government matters. We've all grasped the age issue. I think our best shot is trying to stay as well-informed as possible and stay connected to people who read beyond the headlines.
Putin is 70. Netanyahu is 74. Trump is 77. None of these wannabe cock-of-the-walks are spring chickens and all of them are excessively greedy and selfish.
There are 5 open US House seats in NC and the Republicans running for them all seem to think that they are running against Biden instead of their GOP competitors in the primary.
One guy who isn't a spring chicken himself, has mentioned Biden's age as an impediment. TI googled him and it turns out he is 74 himself and has NO legislative experience - he is a farmer and "businessman. Yeah that is just what we need an Inexperienced 74-yo freshman!
That’s pretty horrifying.
I have felt the conflict in Gaza presents President Biden with an enormous challenge. The way he and Blinken have worked with Arab states suggests their ideas (as well as those of the CIA director assisting negotiation) receive support in the region. Thank you for a careful analysis of this difficult issue.
Nate Cohn, the NYTimes polling guru printed his twisted justification for why polls have been wrong. Basically, he admits the polls are Republican biased and polls ignore the outsized commitment of Democrats to winning every election through 2024. Therefore the polls have been off by 7-8%WOW! what a surprise.
Please write to Cohn and Times leadership about the great dangers of the papers bias is creating by "normalizing" Trump.
The key addresses are:
joe.kahn@nytimes.com
nate.cohn@nytimes.com
david.halbfinger@nytimes.com
opinion@nytimes.com
Thank you for printing Nate Cohn's "Three Points" in which he justified his far beyond the "margin of error" poll results for our recent primary elections. Cutting through Mr. Cohn's pseudo statistical language, current polls have been overstating Trump's strength and understating Biden or other opposing candidates strength because the survey groups have been Republican/Trump biased. And also because pollsters have consistently ignored the intense commitment Democrats have brought to winning elections in the past two years.
Worse than poorly forecasting recent election results, the Republican biased polls and your team's analysis have created the false narrative that Americans broadly oppose President Biden 1st term performance and would prefer Donald Trump. Does the Times believe the truth exists in the exaggerated FOX echo chamber of the Trump campaign? Start talking to Democrats to truthfully balance the paper's reporting and remove Nate Cohn from political analysis.
It is very, very dangerous for the Times, the paper of record for American news, to continue following its Republican confirmation bias with invalid polling and create the false impression that America wants Trump and his vision of the US.
Thank You
Merrill Weingrod
401-480-8003
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/26/upshot/trump-polling-primaries.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Yk0.ig63.wH2mlba80aUU&smid=nytcore-android-share
Thank you for that heartfelt, thoughtful write up, Simon. It has gotten too emotional for me to talk about. I have suggested resources for others here in the past, but I am going to just send people here when the topic comes up.
Simon, love your analysis of the Michigan vote. And agree re Bibi and Hamas both needing to go.
Kudos Simon.
Thank you so much for including that clip of the Polish ambassador to the UN rebutting the lies of the Russia ambassador. It is nice to see that there are countries on the world stage who hold the Russians accountable and the reasons why they do. The Poles and the Ukrainians have suffered so much at the hands of the Russians and Germans since the 18th century. Anyone interested in more on this subject should read Timothy Snyder's book, The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Belarus, 1569 - 1999.
I am reminded of a classic Russian joke. Two judges meet in the cafeteria. One of them is laughing to himself. The other asks:
"What’s so funny?"
"I just heard the best political joke ever."
"Do tell."
"I can’t."
"Why not?"
"I just sentenced the man who told the joke to 20 years of hard labor."
One thing I've noticed about those who criticize or outright condemn Biden for his actions, or what's perceived as inaction, thus far on the Israel/Hamas conflict is they offer no real solutions, no real answers to basic questions that are fully thought through to the likely result which may be a larger more catastrophic conflict.
Very well put regarding Gaza situation, Simon. It's a messy issue and one that people have understandably complicated views on. I count myself amongst that crowd. Do I wish like hell that Biden had NOT hugged Netanyahu ? - hell yes. Do I wish he would come out more forcefully against him? Again hell yes! Am I going to let that make me sit this out election & increase the chances of the keys being handed back to a raging authoritarian whom wants decimate democracies, make lives of of all stripes infinitely worse in all ways you've pointed out numerous times (save of course for the resource hoarding Oligarchs whom will pearl clutch in public at his antics - but will go with it preserve their precious tax cuts) all stemming from daddy issues ?! ABSOLUTELY NOT!!! To paraphrase what others have said there has never been a president I agreed with 100% of the time. Leaders - even admirable ones - are HUMAN! They make blunders - even bad ones sometimes, they can be badly advised, they can be gaffe prone - just like the rest of us ! Biden is human, and I have some disagreements with some of his actions his actions. However, unlike the other choice there is a human being in there - one whom has busted his ass to make life better for people of all walks of life. I will continue to donate and work for our standard bearer. There is no perfect choice - there never has been - but like 2020 Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is far and away the best choice we have before us. Let us all continue to spread Hopium & work hard to help carry this hardworking president to victory.
Simon you are one of the best 'Democratic Strategists' around. You clearly answer all questions. Thank you for all of your thoughts in today's newsletter. I am 100% in agreement with you.
💯”his embrace of Putin prior to October 7th remains at the top of my list.” Bibi’s failure to stand up for Ukraine was utterly unforgivable. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Even more so now, given that Putin is allied with Hamas!
Simon, I have always found you to be very balanced on the horrors happening in Israel/Palestine. I have both Jewish and Arabic friends and I want peace and prosperity for everyone in that part of the world. Joe has a limited role to play and Bibi obviously has power to hold onto which affects what's happening. I understand our Arabic friends being upset with the limited role we have there, but when it comes to the election, I know they won't/can't vote for Trump. Our challenge is to make sure they feel a part of the process enough that they don't stay home on Election Day. Joe is the President for everyone, and I, for one, am very proud to have Muslim and Jewish friends who are part of the great richness of the US. And Bibi needs to go for sure, but that's up to the Israeli people, not us.
Well said, as always. 👏
I understand that aas a pollster for the Democratic Party it's your job to uphold the status quo of the party. And you're absolutely right that Biden has been a very effective president, in spite of his reflexively aggressive and oh-so-twentieth-century foreign policy views. the problem you have is convincing young democrat-leaning 18-35 year-olds to vote for him. You cannot turn a blind eye to his age, his own negative charisma, and his decidedly uncharismatic Vice President. I'm in my 70s and have never voted for a Republican. I'm sure I'll maintain this record for the rest of my life. But you cannot ignore what's staring you in the face. The Dems have not cultivated younger leadership since Obama. It's not too late to dump Biden in favor of a candidate who can continue his excellent domestic policies, but can ignite a fire i the minds of younger voters. Gretchen Whitmer comes to mind. You simply cannot count on Dems to turn out for Biden even though they are aware of the evil oponent.
I just want to say one thing about this - the idea is he not out there is ridiculous. He keeps an unbelievably aggressive schedule. He travels all the time domestically and internationally. He does multiple on camera events almost every day. I think there is an argument he actually does too much not too little. Joe Biden is a work horse not a show horse. He isn't going to pop the way Obama did, or the way Trump does in a terrible way. He is who he is. He is our candidate. And our job is go out there and help him win this thing.
Just my two cents about this that I've been percolating on for many months now....I think as a family we misunderstand how badly we have been losing the "organizational" game to the Rs for the better part of the last 60 years....just the blocking and tackling of building voter lists, canvassing, phonebanking, and state based organization with strong local infrastructure in counties and cities. (That is certainly no longer the case, but I believe it was more or less for a few decades there). We were spoiled with two extraordinary candidates in the performative sense (who were also very good presidents btw) in Bill Clinton & Barack Obama. What I've come to understand is that every election comes down to the same group of variables.....overall public sentiment, organization and field operations, effectiveness of arguments, and candidate quality. NO campaign every scores 100% on every one of these metrics, and EVERY campaign has strengths and weaknesses. Bill Clinton & Barack Obama certainly had strength in the perception of their candidacies that Joe Biden doesn't have, but Joe has strength that neither of them have too. We just have to lean into the areas where we have an outsized advantage right now and help make up the gap where Joe doesn't shine as brightly....but guess what? We had to do that for Bill Clinton & Barack Obama too! That's how presidents get elected....you lean into their strengths to offset any weaknesses, and you build an army of support. Personally, I'm more ecstatic about the potential for this election than I was about either of theirs because this is the first time I can remember in over 20 years of involvement and engagement that there is this broad of a focus on the Democratic Party at large all the way up and down the ballot rather than the myopic "presidency only" focus I've encountered for much of that time. If we build a tide that lifts all boats, we'll reelect Biden AND more importantly, give him the help he needs to navigate us to the other side of these assaults on our Democracy and liberal world order.
Short version: Biden is a MUCH better candidate than may in the D family perceive him to be, because he is running in the wake of two political unicorns with skills and talents on the performative side of politics that are just not common (not taking away from their substantive good work as presidents in saying that either). I think this is a WONDERFUL moment for the D party because it's going to teach us that we can win presidential elections, even in cycles where we don't have a generationally talented orator who is moviestar level good looking and charismatic. With all the love and respect in the world for both Clinton and Obama, there's nobody I want back in that chair for the situation we're facing right now than the man who is already in it....his wisdom, experience, and DEEP understanding of the structures that fuel our global peace and prosperity, and the origins of the movements that seek to undermine them is unmatched by literally any other viable candidate. He is the right person for the time, and history will one day sing his praises like few others. Let's get on the same page and help him score the decisive win his record of accomplishments and moment meeting wisdom deserve! #GameOn #TeamBiden #TeamUSA
Hey Evan….definitely not demeaning your concerns…..every candidate can lose and we can’t be complacent in the least. But I firmly believe that there are structural advantages in Biden’s favor this cycle that weren’t present in 2016 (the memory of which is the source of everyone’s collective anxiety)….and also, literally from the beginning of his run in 2019, nobody has believed he was up to the task politically or with enough vigor to do the job if he won…..and he has repeatedly made every doubter eat shit sandwiches lol. There’s a huge advantage in being so underestimated… When people tune in and see that he actually can string together, two sentences, and isn’t a daughter Ring old fool who has no idea where he is or what he’s doing… He’ll massively exceed their expectations. And Trump, will actually Shock the hell out of them because he has become a lunatic… And the closer we get to the election when low information voters finally get a glimpse of it, I think we will not have the trouble everyone’s worried about pulling the persuadable voters in our direction. Glad to be in the fight with you, because whatever your concerns are, I know it’s based on love of country and wanting what’s best for us all. 🇺🇸
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Bless you
It wasn't super timely, but there was a nice write-up yesterday in the Grassroots Connector about the genesis of the Biden write-in campaign for the NH primary:
https://open.substack.com/pub/grassrootsconnector/p/bidens-nh-write-in-landslide?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Cool! Thanks for sharing 😁
Here's a commenter that agrees with everything and everybody about but still describes our candidate as a bumbling old washed up geriatric. He forgets about the most recent state of the union speech and the occasion of his official opening of his candidacy for reelection. There are many other examples that directly contradict the assertion of negative charisma. I am greatly comforted by his tremendous experience and wisdom and of his ACCOMPLISHMENTS, even with a hugely disfuntional Congress in the last 1 1/2 years. These are strengths, not weaknesses. If he were to fall, his VP is more than qualified to carry the torch, even if not as charismatic as you might hope.
Here's a commenter that agrees with everything and everybody about Biden but still describes our candidate as a bumbling old washed up geriatric. He forgets about the most recent state of the union speech and the occasion of his official opening of his candidacy for reelection. There are many other examples that directly contradict the assertion of negative charisma. I am greatly comforted by his tremendous experience and wisdom and of his ACCOMPLISHMENTS, even with a hugely disfuntional Congress in the last 1 1/2 years. These are strengths, not weaknesses. If he were to fall, his VP is more than qualified to carry the torch, even if not as charismatic as you might hope.
This is the HC train aimed at getting Biden- Harris elected. All the while being a very savvy group fully aware of the challenges and imperfections. No eyes closed. And based on this administration doing such a darn good job trying to improve people’s lives and save our democracy. A tough job that takes the continuous “ hard work” we’ve all signed on to do. No guarantees but I pray everyday we are successful bc the alternative is civic madness.
Hard, hard work+ hope.
I’m so glad to be part of this tough, hardworking community.
Having Biden step down is the absolute worst thing the Democrats could do. Gretchen Whitmer polls worse than Biden against Trump. And there's no telling what skeletons she may have in her closet. Not that I think she has skeletons, but if she makes it through a primary there would be lots of time and effort put into finding out for sure before the choice is locked in. That would not be the case if the Democratic Party just annoints her their nominee at a convention. The risk is too high and the reward is too low, possibly even negative.
What are you talking about? Biden does not have "negative charisma." He is charming as hell, he is just old and younger people sometimes have problems connecting with oldder people. He was on Seth Meyer's show last night and he was personable, making jokes and having fun.
I think he needs a better answer to people who are concerned about the conflict in Gaza than, "you do do not have to be Jewish to be a Zionist, and I am a Zionist," but if the ceasefire they are currently negotiating goes into effect he will have much more room to make that argument.
Lastly, the only way the Dems will "dump Biden" is if Joe Biden gives his genuine blessing to pick another candidate because he think's it is in the countries interest. Out of every grievance I have heard about Joe Biden, I have not heard one person say they do not think he has the countries best interest at heart. Even among people who mainline fox news I have not heard that rationale.
It is too late.
And Whitmer is not interested. She has young children and gets death threats already.
And nobody else has been properly vetted and groomed.
Democrats have never seemed great at lines of succession. Too late to correct it for '24.
Whitmer would be a great candidate - in 2028. I'm not sure I'll vote for her in the primary then, just because I don't know who the candidates will be. But at the very least I hope she makes a run.
Obviously it's Biden vs Trump in 2024, barring one of them having an unexpected health issue (keyword unexpected - the rediculous dementia talk doesn't count).
My fav future candidate is Josh Shapiro. But in part because I don't think Whitmer wants it. Meanwhile I'm praying for the good health of a certain candidate this year...
Yeah, there are a few obvious choices - Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom. But it could also be someone totally unknown today. I'm not getting too attached to anyone until we know who the candidates are, and what the challenges of that year are.
Also re lines of succession - Nancy Pelosi seems to have done a good job of stepping down and anointing Hakeem Jeffries as her successor. Presidential politics doesn't really work like that.
Yeah. Pelosi is amazing! Maybe presidential politics should emulate her just a tad...?
I worked in local politics for some years (volunteer) and some places
were good at grooming up-and-comers and they won elections. The past number of years that has not seemed to be the case. It's more free-for-all. Paying little attention to the constituency even. And that has not worked as well, at least not in local elections. I thought Biden would help put Harris in a better position, for example. I just think Republicans have always had an advantage because they didn't take things for granted -- the old "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line." Maybe it's not true but there seems to be some truth in it. That's why Hopium is so important; it gives each/all of us something concrete to do, leaving nothing to chance.
Fred, a few points: 1) nothing about what i've even done in my career has been about upholding the status quo. All of my work, from day 1, has been about imagining and building towards a better future - the opposite of upholding the status quo. 2) Show me data Biden is struggling with 18-35 year olds that is definitive. Here's the latest Harvard IOP poll of 18-29 year olds showing him holding close to his 2020 numbers - https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023 3) the idea we have not cultivated younger leadership is false and wrong, and easily rebutted. Go watch my interview with 26 year old Anderson Clayton on the site. 4) the kind of negative sentiment you express, gratuitous and disrespectful sentiment, is not welcome here. 5) every day we talk about how we will win this year ONLY if we do the work. If you are going to be an active member of this community need you to do better. Thank you.
Just finished a Zoom with Civics Center(Laura Brill) and Jake Tapper. Laura presented stats that 86% ! of registered voters 18-24 yrs voted in 2020, and in every election going back to 2004 > 75% o18-24 years voted. Laura also said a primary concern of this demographic is mental health. Do you see them voting for a deranged Trump??
“Let’s help ignite a fire in the minds of younger voters” …by encouraging them to vote. Donate, volunteer with the Civics Center:⬇️
https://www.thecivicscenter.org/
You are so wrong about the Democrats' not cultivating younger politicians. We have several organizations devoted to that which did not exist in 2012. Biden himself has appointed several of the younger Democrats who ran against him and their supporters in 2020 to high level positions in his own administration. He boldly asked a woman of color to be his running mate. He appointed an openly gay mayor from Indiana (of all places) to be Secretary of Transportation. That has given national exposure to these very qualified people who are not his old cronies or corporate donors. Biden is preparing the Democrats to keep up with the needs of our time, even as it reflects the more progressive positions that Biden himself had not joined onto until later in his long political career.
Politics is the art of the possible. Biden knows that. We can do a lot now and a whole lot more later.
You're contradicting yourself in a single paragraph. If this is your considered opinion, you've been asleep the last several years. Look at the 2020 Democratic primary field and ask yourself how many of them are active politicians today. Look at Democratic governors and ask yourself if there aren't more than one with qualifications to run for president. Perhaps you simply haven't paid attention to those younger than yourself?
Go back and watch that Lawrence O'Donnell clip that Simon linked to a few days ago talking about the "open" Convention of 1968.
Love the Newsom clip! We all need to take his attitude, enough with the other side's narrative. Increasingly I see SR's messages getting out, being echoed, yay!