Everyone should watch Simon and Tom Bonier with the link Simon provided today. It’s only about 20 minutes and it has more up-to-date data on registrations. Well worth your time.
I became concerned after seeing this voter registration data for August, showing far more voters registering as Republican than Democrat. Is Michael Pruser’s data wrong? Hopefully someone can clarify.
I think the difference is that Simon and Tom are looking at the data demographically and that’s where the real conclusions are. Hypothetically, if the non-affiliated registration is 70% under 30 years of age, that would tell you something different than if they were 70% over 60 years of age.
This data was referred to on The-Downballot.org (previously DailyKos Elections). One comment pointed out that *most* young voters today are registering as Independents. If so, a lot more of the newly-registered voters are likely to be Democratic-leaning than might first appear.
NB. The-Downballot is a very data-rich site well worth subscribing to, but it’s freely accessible. It’s probably the most comprehensive election-related data you will find anywhere! And their Morning Digest newsletter (free) is always informative.
Hard Agree! I am a subscriber to The Downballot too! I think you have to look at the demographics more than the party id as well. Plus, this is the data Simon and Tom had in 2022, so I know that it's apples to apples and consistent when it's being analyzed.
I’ve been having similar thoughts. Specifically, my eyes tell me one thing but the data shows another (higher R registration). I’d love a much deeper explanation than anything I’ve seen or read on this thread.
But I’m staying optimistic and still “doing something” as I am dialed in on helping Jon Tester with donations and text banking.
They may be marrying up voter registration data (which usually makes demographic data optional on your voter registration form) with outside data merged on name and address to get a more robust demographic profile. I do not know this for a fact, but purchased marketing lists and a model is how Field Team 6 identifies their audience before the people are registered. And they report that they mostly register Democrats and unaffiliated voters with very few Republicans.
Hi - I think the key is this line in the key from the TargetSmart website: "Party Registration: Party registration is not available in every state. In states where it is not available, all voters will be labeled as ‘Unaffiliated’."
Part of what Tom's outfit does is use a variety of other kinds of data to model the party leanings of people who aren't in a state that shares party reg data. My understanding is that their modeling has been shown to be very good. Ultimately, if Tom and Simon are looking at these numbers and are saying "yes, we like this," I'm inclined to believe that these are the kinds of numbers we're looking for. Hope this is helpful. Also hope I didn't misunderstand your question and provide useless info you already knew...
I remember very similar conversation from 2022 in which it was explained what this means. A lot of it is just people re-registering after changing addresses. Republicans have long relied on gerrymandering and voter suppression to win elections. You don't see them standing at the farmer's market with a clipboard. I found the beginning of a Tom Bonier thread explaining it, but I can't find the rest (I don't use the Muskrat's bullshit): https://x.com/tbonier/status/1834389081884615044
They are going out and registering people in small towns and rural areas. Trying to get people who are tuned out and don’t usually vote, because they know anyone actually paying attention has already decided.
PACs are doing it, not the Republican Party. So it’s a bit hidden from view
The other thing is the voter registration tracking game is a lot like reading tea leaves. People register with a party, or not, for all kinds of reasons. And the reasons vary from place to place. Even if you’re a D you might register R to vote in a primary. And the registration game is changing. For example, PA just last year started automatic voter registration at the DMV. That’s got to have had an effect on the numbers
One other consideration is how primaries are run in each state. I grew up in MD where you can only vote in the primary if you are registered with a party (aka closed primary).
In NC where I now live, Dems have to vote the Dem ballot in the primary, Repubs must vote the GOP ballot, and unaffilliated voters get to pick which ballot they want to vote when they check in at the polling place - no need to officially change your party affiliation at all.
The only restriction is that if there is a second primary (because no one won more that 30% of the vote in a particular race) you would have to take the same party's ballot as you did in the primary (if you choose to vote in the runoff).
So I imagine in red states with closed primaries, people may registed as Republicans whether or not they actually support the GOP if there are a limited number of Democrats running in the primary (i.e, zero or one candidate running for each office as a Democrat).
In 2022, I had 10 or 11 races where I could vote in the primary while a friend one county over (which was much redder) had only one race on the Democratic primary ballot - for the open US Senate seat that was up for grabs.
“If a patient presented to me with the verbal incoherence, tangential thinking, and repetitive speech that Trump now regularly demonstrates, I would almost certainly refer them for a rigorous neuropsychiatric evaluation to rule out a cognitive illness.”
– Richard A. Friedman, Psychiatrist (writing in The Atlantic)
(Addendum: Trump also shows signs of being a very frustrated Incel. Melania prefers to keep a few states between herself and her husband, and Stormy Daniels wouldn’t touch Donald with a ten-foot pole, even for $ 130,000.)
In short, great news! The first three of those are Hopium races. The Democratic candidate is leading in every race except VA-02, where she is only one point behind.
Thanks for posting this district-level polling data. I live in NY-04. Republicans hold three of the four Congressional seats on Long Island. We've got to flip them blue.
Trump is coming here next week to rally in support of the republican candidates in Long Island's four districts. Please do what you can to support the following Democrats:
NY-01 John Avlon (veteran political analyst and journalist, married to PBS/CNN panelist Margaret Hoover)
NY-02 Rob Lubin (small business owner). Have seen NOTHING about him locally.
NY-03 Tom Suozzi (replaced the odious George Santos in a special election)
NY-04 Laura Gillen (former Town of Hempstead supervisor, volunteered with Mother Teresa many years ago)
Democrats outnumber republicans by 80,000 active voters in Nassau County and 25,000 active voters in Suffolk County, but the republican political machine is much more effective at getting out the vote.
Adding three Democrats to LI's congressional delegation is critical to our success this year.
Why does the New York Democratic party apparatus still seem to be in such disarray? Or am I wrong? I would think they would have learned a lesson after failing at GOTV in 2022, essentially handing Republicans control of the House.
We really, really need to flip seats – and many in NY and CA ought to be within reach.
I'm in neighboring MA, and the Democratic Party here isn't anything to write home about, though they're not as screwy as NY. My theory (based mostly on MA and NY <g>) is that Democratic Parties in safely blue states get lazy. Active Democrats, including younger Democrats, don't get involved in the party structure. A few years ago, the state party decided that state committee members who'd served five 4-year terms would be elevated to lifetime membership and wouldn't have to run again. This was supposedly to make room for new members, esp. younger members and members of color. But the "lifers" can still vote. A bunch of us would have preferred term limits, but the lifers didn't want to give up their perks.
The right is now talking about how Harris is "bussing" in people to fill her rallies. Lying like this is a good indication that they really have noting, and are losing.
This is an extension of what Trump did at the debate because Kamala baited him. He's so fragile that he's fixated on rallies and not communicating any real message.
Under A.G. Sulzberger, The New York Times has seriously deteriorated, increasingly abandoning accurate headlines and truth-seeking journalism. Sadly, the NYT has become an integral part of The Right. (I am tempted to write Alt-Reich.)
After over 30 years as a subscriber to the Times, this breaks my heart, but we are considering canceling our subscription. I remember the morning ritual of going outside early in the morning to pick up my blue plastic-wrapped paper, going inside and reading it with my husband over coffee. And the Sunday paper - and I mean PAPER, not bytes - was something to be lingered over, savored and edified by. We've been digital subscribers now for about 10 years or so, and it's fine, but we've noticed the imbalance in their misleading headlines as well as the significant change in their Opinion pages and especially the Editorial Board.
I attended the Kamala Harris Rally in Charlotte yesterday. I think the area is within walking distance of a CATS (Charlotte Area Transit System) bus stop, but I don't that's what Trump meant. ;-)
I did meet a lovely couple while we were waiting in line who had driven up the night before from a small town in SC - they were afraid to put up a Harris-Walz yard sign for fear that it would get vandalized since they were in Trump Country!
I am blocked from X. However, here in Baghdad By the Sea, we have a disadvantage, mainly because 84,000 Democrats have been purged since 2022. Statewide about a million.
Like I said, Bonior documents that the trend is favorable.
I'm hoping that we make a rush by Oct 7 , last day to register in FL.
I'm in a couple of data groups. They say the enthusiasm quotient that Bonior discussed trends heavily Democratic here.
Canvassing is the clincher. In my vets discussion group yesterday, several groups of Virginians are headed to Pa and NC to canvass virtually every weekend. Anecdotally, they find more people willing to volunteer. They find MAGATs willing to flip. The Harris organizer told my DEC they have 70,000 volunteers on board here in Florida. I'm not able to get them to concentrate on registrations...yet.
Thanks for the link to the TargetSmart dashboard. I admit, I thought I was pretty good with data, but I am missing something here because I don't see the positive trends for 2024. Any thoughts? Thank you!
Ditto. I've squinted at and played with that interactive chart for a while, and it looks like it's showing that new registrations for both the national number and most individual states are well under what they were in 2022 and 2020. Can someone explain how this chart illustrates the increase Tom Bonier says is happening?
I don't understand that dashboard. How does it have any information for future weeks? Why do the blue and red lines say 2020 data when you roll over them, but the gray line say 2024?
Simon, you are doing such phenomenal work and bringing us all along with you. There are barely enough hours in the day for all the online presentations you are giving everyone to spread news, ideas, information, good work and joy! Let alone for you to actually be doing them! Thank you so so much.
Laurence O’Donnell has done a great job covering Kamala Harris’s political background the last couple nights. Last night it was Karl Rove, whose critique of Trump’s debate performance was withering. But O’Donnell also ran some of the footage from Greensboro. Wow. I always admired Kamala Harris but her ability to work such a massive crowd is inspiring—worthy of comparison to Obama.
I was in Greensboro for the rally last night. I was disappointed that Anderson Clayton didn't get to be on stage to speak. There must be a good reason, but I wanted the youngest state chair in the Democratic Party to talk to us. The one thing I noticed was VP Harris was more passionate in her delivery. She wasn't just making another speech, she was telling us who she is from her whole being.
We agree that maybe we are related. I think probably somebody married a cousin back there. There are several lines of Claytons in Person County, NC. I know mine but we haven't traded info on each others grandparents so we can trace back and see if there is a link. We'll have time after the election. Thanks for asking.
In the 2018 general election, turnout among voters with Haitian ancestry was 73%, 9 percentage points higher than the state’s overall turnout rate, according to two researchers at the University of Florida in 2020. A similarly high turnout was observed in 2016 as well. “These numbers allow you to understand that Haitians vote at higher levels, that there is a large Haitian population in Florida, that there are a number of Haitians who have ran for office and won office, and that as a political group, they really have arrived,” one of the researchers told The Haitian Times.
Christian Bouzy is convinced Florida is in play, and that Rick Scott is in danger!
There are over 300,000 registered Haitian voters in Florida. As you point out, Haitian voter turnout in 2018 was 73 percent, compared to the state's paltry 64 percent overall. Rick Scott won his seat with just 10,033 votes.
One more thing: Republicans brag about enjoying a one-million-registered-voter advantage in Florida, in large part due to systematic voter roll purges carried out under Governor Ron DeSantis. However, as Bouzy points out, Democrats plus Independents significantly outnumber Republicans.
I watched the Greensboro rally this morning; she and the crowd were on fire. I also recommend watching Lawrence's piece on how everyone underestimated Harris but he's been watching her for years and isn't surprised one bit by her performance.
The GOP has tied Trump around their necks like an albatross. And now that albatross is decaying, and the stench is sticking to you. We can smell you coming a mile away. I heard a republican strategist saying, "Kamala needs to prove herself to the voters." Yeah? Do they not listen? Trump showed everyone who they are, what they support. "Trump's gonna hammer her on immigration, on the economy!" How's that working for you? Your guy can't even stay on the side of reality, much less to a message. And he's dragging all you down ballot republicans with him. Face it, GOP - we will not let up. There is nothing left for you to salvage from Trump. You chose...poorly.
During the debate T***p said that Kamala was paying people to go to her rallies and busing them in because people had no reason to go to her events. He has always been one for 'projection' living in his own opposite land. I look forward to learning later about the evidence of him paying people to attend his events and busing them in because people had no reason to go to his rallies.
Hi Simon, I’d like to please get your thoughts on the state of the race in NC right now.
On one hand, as it pertains to the potential in all seven battleground states…there has been a massive increase in voter registrations after Swift’s endorsement of Harris. This intensity and enthusiasm is really unprecedented at this point and is even bigger than what we saw after the Dobbsdecision in 2022. This is promising news all around as significant voter turnout (which is highly anticipated) will very likely help outpace the cheating tactics by the GOP.
That said, no wonder Harris was heavy handed in NC just the other day. Yesterday, the Republican-controlled North Carolina Supreme Court decided to permit RFK to have his name taken off the ballot in that state, although, as reported, he did not ask to be removed until four days after he withdrew from the race, which was five days after the deadline for withdrawing.
By the time he withdrew, county election boards were already printing ballots, and the court’s decision will require nearly three million ballots to be destroyed and new ones designed and printed. According to North Carolina’s state election director, this will take 18 to 23 days and will cut into early voting. North Carolina law requires state officials to mail ballots to Americans living abroad and to service members by September 6, the day that early voting was supposed to start. Of course, early voters there skew Democratic.
Also today, Republicans in North Carolina sued to overturn the decision of the state election board that students and employees of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill can use state-approved digital IDs as identification for voting. How do we keep up with such moves like these and still manage to win NC even amidst our strategy in focusing in on Robinson as such a toxic candidate?
Self reporting today. Still isolating with COVID and was wondering if anyone has an old grandma’s recipe for ‘cat soup’? OK brain is a bit addled so my fingers are doing the talking with a donation to Nebraska Blue Dot and Winning with Dems. If chicken soup is good for the soul then Kamala debates are good for the polls. Cheers Hopium Mates
Ay my house we are postcarding every day for Will Rollins plus we maxed out our contribution.
Rollins is also in free BYOP. https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Everyone should watch Simon and Tom Bonier with the link Simon provided today. It’s only about 20 minutes and it has more up-to-date data on registrations. Well worth your time.
I became concerned after seeing this voter registration data for August, showing far more voters registering as Republican than Democrat. Is Michael Pruser’s data wrong? Hopefully someone can clarify.
https://nitter.poast.org/MichaelPruser/status/1834260730394112112#m
Total change:
Republican..: + 141,796
Democrat......: + 61,042
Independent: +219,084
Edit: I’ve replaced the X link with a Nitter link, which everyone can access.
I think the difference is that Simon and Tom are looking at the data demographically and that’s where the real conclusions are. Hypothetically, if the non-affiliated registration is 70% under 30 years of age, that would tell you something different than if they were 70% over 60 years of age.
This data was referred to on The-Downballot.org (previously DailyKos Elections). One comment pointed out that *most* young voters today are registering as Independents. If so, a lot more of the newly-registered voters are likely to be Democratic-leaning than might first appear.
NB. The-Downballot is a very data-rich site well worth subscribing to, but it’s freely accessible. It’s probably the most comprehensive election-related data you will find anywhere! And their Morning Digest newsletter (free) is always informative.
Hard Agree! I am a subscriber to The Downballot too! I think you have to look at the demographics more than the party id as well. Plus, this is the data Simon and Tom had in 2022, so I know that it's apples to apples and consistent when it's being analyzed.
I’ve been having similar thoughts. Specifically, my eyes tell me one thing but the data shows another (higher R registration). I’d love a much deeper explanation than anything I’ve seen or read on this thread.
But I’m staying optimistic and still “doing something” as I am dialed in on helping Jon Tester with donations and text banking.
They may be marrying up voter registration data (which usually makes demographic data optional on your voter registration form) with outside data merged on name and address to get a more robust demographic profile. I do not know this for a fact, but purchased marketing lists and a model is how Field Team 6 identifies their audience before the people are registered. And they report that they mostly register Democrats and unaffiliated voters with very few Republicans.
This article might help: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/upshot/democrats-voter-registration.html
Paywalled. (We’ve cancelled our subscription to Mr Sulzberger’s pro-Trump rag.)
Hi - I think the key is this line in the key from the TargetSmart website: "Party Registration: Party registration is not available in every state. In states where it is not available, all voters will be labeled as ‘Unaffiliated’."
Part of what Tom's outfit does is use a variety of other kinds of data to model the party leanings of people who aren't in a state that shares party reg data. My understanding is that their modeling has been shown to be very good. Ultimately, if Tom and Simon are looking at these numbers and are saying "yes, we like this," I'm inclined to believe that these are the kinds of numbers we're looking for. Hope this is helpful. Also hope I didn't misunderstand your question and provide useless info you already knew...
I remember very similar conversation from 2022 in which it was explained what this means. A lot of it is just people re-registering after changing addresses. Republicans have long relied on gerrymandering and voter suppression to win elections. You don't see them standing at the farmer's market with a clipboard. I found the beginning of a Tom Bonier thread explaining it, but I can't find the rest (I don't use the Muskrat's bullshit): https://x.com/tbonier/status/1834389081884615044
They are going out and registering people in small towns and rural areas. Trying to get people who are tuned out and don’t usually vote, because they know anyone actually paying attention has already decided.
PACs are doing it, not the Republican Party. So it’s a bit hidden from view
The other thing is the voter registration tracking game is a lot like reading tea leaves. People register with a party, or not, for all kinds of reasons. And the reasons vary from place to place. Even if you’re a D you might register R to vote in a primary. And the registration game is changing. For example, PA just last year started automatic voter registration at the DMV. That’s got to have had an effect on the numbers
One other consideration is how primaries are run in each state. I grew up in MD where you can only vote in the primary if you are registered with a party (aka closed primary).
In NC where I now live, Dems have to vote the Dem ballot in the primary, Repubs must vote the GOP ballot, and unaffilliated voters get to pick which ballot they want to vote when they check in at the polling place - no need to officially change your party affiliation at all.
The only restriction is that if there is a second primary (because no one won more that 30% of the vote in a particular race) you would have to take the same party's ballot as you did in the primary (if you choose to vote in the runoff).
So I imagine in red states with closed primaries, people may registed as Republicans whether or not they actually support the GOP if there are a limited number of Democrats running in the primary (i.e, zero or one candidate running for each office as a Democrat).
In 2022, I had 10 or 11 races where I could vote in the primary while a friend one county over (which was much redder) had only one race on the Democratic primary ballot - for the open US Senate seat that was up for grabs.
Every single episode of Closing Strong is so good! Highly recommended.
.
"When I heard they were giving schoolchildren sex changes, I nearly spit out my dog."
– Instagram post from my wife’s hairdresser
Am I the only one who does not find any humor in this?
We need to stop giving oxygen to this and the memes are contributing to that.
I respect your opinion. 🫶🏼
“If a patient presented to me with the verbal incoherence, tangential thinking, and repetitive speech that Trump now regularly demonstrates, I would almost certainly refer them for a rigorous neuropsychiatric evaluation to rule out a cognitive illness.”
– Richard A. Friedman, Psychiatrist (writing in The Atlantic)
(Addendum: Trump also shows signs of being a very frustrated Incel. Melania prefers to keep a few states between herself and her husband, and Stormy Daniels wouldn’t touch Donald with a ten-foot pole, even for $ 130,000.)
Enter Laura ‘Crazypants’ Loomer. *shiver*
I understand that Laura Loomer and Tulsi Gabbard prepared Trump for the debate.
"To both: Thank you for your service to America and American democracy!"
Laura Looney
🤣🤣🤣 SO good, thank you!!
😂
Any good, recent polling on the House races of the challengers the Hopium community is supporting? I saw this, released yesterday:
AZ-01: GBAO: Amish Shah (D): 48, David Schweikert (R-inc): 47 (Aug. 8-13)
CA-22: Normington Petts: Rudy Salas (D): 46, David Valadao (R-inc): 44 (Aug. 25-27)
NE-02: GQR: Tony Vargas (D): 49, Don Bacon (R-inc): 45 (July 16-21)
NY-04: GQR: Laura Gillen (D): 50, Anthony D'Esposito (R-inc): 47 (Aug. 26-30)
NY-22: GQR: John Mannion (D): 50, Brandon Williams (R-inc): 43 (July 7-15)
VA-02: Impact Research: Jen Kiggans (R-inc): 48, Missy Cotter Smasal (D): 47 (Aug. 20-25)
In short, great news! The first three of those are Hopium races. The Democratic candidate is leading in every race except VA-02, where she is only one point behind.
Thanks for posting this district-level polling data. I live in NY-04. Republicans hold three of the four Congressional seats on Long Island. We've got to flip them blue.
Trump is coming here next week to rally in support of the republican candidates in Long Island's four districts. Please do what you can to support the following Democrats:
NY-01 John Avlon (veteran political analyst and journalist, married to PBS/CNN panelist Margaret Hoover)
NY-02 Rob Lubin (small business owner). Have seen NOTHING about him locally.
NY-03 Tom Suozzi (replaced the odious George Santos in a special election)
NY-04 Laura Gillen (former Town of Hempstead supervisor, volunteered with Mother Teresa many years ago)
Democrats outnumber republicans by 80,000 active voters in Nassau County and 25,000 active voters in Suffolk County, but the republican political machine is much more effective at getting out the vote.
Adding three Democrats to LI's congressional delegation is critical to our success this year.
Why does the New York Democratic party apparatus still seem to be in such disarray? Or am I wrong? I would think they would have learned a lesson after failing at GOTV in 2022, essentially handing Republicans control of the House.
We really, really need to flip seats – and many in NY and CA ought to be within reach.
I'm in neighboring MA, and the Democratic Party here isn't anything to write home about, though they're not as screwy as NY. My theory (based mostly on MA and NY <g>) is that Democratic Parties in safely blue states get lazy. Active Democrats, including younger Democrats, don't get involved in the party structure. A few years ago, the state party decided that state committee members who'd served five 4-year terms would be elevated to lifetime membership and wouldn't have to run again. This was supposedly to make room for new members, esp. younger members and members of color. But the "lifers" can still vote. A bunch of us would have preferred term limits, but the lifers didn't want to give up their perks.
The right is now talking about how Harris is "bussing" in people to fill her rallies. Lying like this is a good indication that they really have noting, and are losing.
Hmmm...I wonder if they're hiring? I could go in drag. (JUST KIDDING!)
This is an extension of what Trump did at the debate because Kamala baited him. He's so fragile that he's fixated on rallies and not communicating any real message.
Just as FoxNews had nothing about the Arlington cemetery debacle, the right is "sanewashing" the fact that DJT blew the debate. Sigh.
Unfortunately it not always the right and fox news. - cough, cough - NYT - cough, cough.
Under A.G. Sulzberger, The New York Times has seriously deteriorated, increasingly abandoning accurate headlines and truth-seeking journalism. Sadly, the NYT has become an integral part of The Right. (I am tempted to write Alt-Reich.)
After over 30 years as a subscriber to the Times, this breaks my heart, but we are considering canceling our subscription. I remember the morning ritual of going outside early in the morning to pick up my blue plastic-wrapped paper, going inside and reading it with my husband over coffee. And the Sunday paper - and I mean PAPER, not bytes - was something to be lingered over, savored and edified by. We've been digital subscribers now for about 10 years or so, and it's fine, but we've noticed the imbalance in their misleading headlines as well as the significant change in their Opinion pages and especially the Editorial Board.
I cancelled my subscription months ago, I just couldn't take it any more.
Karl Rove (in the WSJ editorial pages, no less), RFK Jr., Sununu, Brett Baier all came out saying he lost the debate very badly.
May we presume RFK Jr. is now locked out of his guest room at Marred-Ego?
I attended the Kamala Harris Rally in Charlotte yesterday. I think the area is within walking distance of a CATS (Charlotte Area Transit System) bus stop, but I don't that's what Trump meant. ;-)
I did meet a lovely couple while we were waiting in line who had driven up the night before from a small town in SC - they were afraid to put up a Harris-Walz yard sign for fear that it would get vandalized since they were in Trump Country!
It was :-)
How exciting!
By next Friday we can increase our base. Note the trend on Tom Bonior's registration dashboard.
https://targetsmart.com/the-targetsmart-voter-registration-dashboard/
More than 12 mil FT6 texts have been sent to crucial states. Need to follow up. Phone bank. Canvass. https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops/volunteer
"Harris has already gained a point or so coming out the debate." RealClearPolitics Betting Average
51.0 Harris
47.6 Trump
On social media, can send https://voterizer.org/ to register new voters.
It's great that Simon is on Midas Touch. MSM is oblivious to the effect registrations can have on outcome. Hope they report daily.
Daniel, could you comment the voter registration data I posted in another comment? Is that accurate?
I am blocked from X. However, here in Baghdad By the Sea, we have a disadvantage, mainly because 84,000 Democrats have been purged since 2022. Statewide about a million.
Like I said, Bonior documents that the trend is favorable.
I'm hoping that we make a rush by Oct 7 , last day to register in FL.
I'm in a couple of data groups. They say the enthusiasm quotient that Bonior discussed trends heavily Democratic here.
Canvassing is the clincher. In my vets discussion group yesterday, several groups of Virginians are headed to Pa and NC to canvass virtually every weekend. Anecdotally, they find more people willing to volunteer. They find MAGATs willing to flip. The Harris organizer told my DEC they have 70,000 volunteers on board here in Florida. I'm not able to get them to concentrate on registrations...yet.
Daniel, I’ve replaced the X link with a Nitter link, which you can access:
https://nitter.poast.org/MichaelPruser/status/1834260730394112112#m
Thanks for the link to the TargetSmart dashboard. I admit, I thought I was pretty good with data, but I am missing something here because I don't see the positive trends for 2024. Any thoughts? Thank you!
Ditto. I've squinted at and played with that interactive chart for a while, and it looks like it's showing that new registrations for both the national number and most individual states are well under what they were in 2022 and 2020. Can someone explain how this chart illustrates the increase Tom Bonier says is happening?
I don't understand that dashboard. How does it have any information for future weeks? Why do the blue and red lines say 2020 data when you roll over them, but the gray line say 2024?
Simon, you are doing such phenomenal work and bringing us all along with you. There are barely enough hours in the day for all the online presentations you are giving everyone to spread news, ideas, information, good work and joy! Let alone for you to actually be doing them! Thank you so so much.
Laurence O’Donnell has done a great job covering Kamala Harris’s political background the last couple nights. Last night it was Karl Rove, whose critique of Trump’s debate performance was withering. But O’Donnell also ran some of the footage from Greensboro. Wow. I always admired Kamala Harris but her ability to work such a massive crowd is inspiring—worthy of comparison to Obama.
I too am a WOW. She continues to outperform even my highest expectations.
I was in Greensboro for the rally last night. I was disappointed that Anderson Clayton didn't get to be on stage to speak. There must be a good reason, but I wanted the youngest state chair in the Democratic Party to talk to us. The one thing I noticed was VP Harris was more passionate in her delivery. She wasn't just making another speech, she was telling us who she is from her whole being.
You must get this question all the time - are you related to Anderson?
We agree that maybe we are related. I think probably somebody married a cousin back there. There are several lines of Claytons in Person County, NC. I know mine but we haven't traded info on each others grandparents so we can trace back and see if there is a link. We'll have time after the election. Thanks for asking.
So cool, thanks. You’ve got good bloodlines regardless!
Haitians vote!🗳️
In the 2018 general election, turnout among voters with Haitian ancestry was 73%, 9 percentage points higher than the state’s overall turnout rate, according to two researchers at the University of Florida in 2020. A similarly high turnout was observed in 2016 as well. “These numbers allow you to understand that Haitians vote at higher levels, that there is a large Haitian population in Florida, that there are a number of Haitians who have ran for office and won office, and that as a political group, they really have arrived,” one of the researchers told The Haitian Times.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/11/2269235/-JD-Vance-s-anti-Haitian-bigotry-could-cost-Republicans-the-Senate 📲💲🏃🏻♀️✍️👕🛒
Christian Bouzy is convinced Florida is in play, and that Rick Scott is in danger!
There are over 300,000 registered Haitian voters in Florida. As you point out, Haitian voter turnout in 2018 was 73 percent, compared to the state's paltry 64 percent overall. Rick Scott won his seat with just 10,033 votes.
https://nitter.poast.org/cbouzy
One more thing: Republicans brag about enjoying a one-million-registered-voter advantage in Florida, in large part due to systematic voter roll purges carried out under Governor Ron DeSantis. However, as Bouzy points out, Democrats plus Independents significantly outnumber Republicans.
I saw a suggestion today that Harris should do some sort of engagement with the Haitian community in Florida to show solidarity etc.
Just donated again. This time to Ruben.
I watched the Greensboro rally this morning; she and the crowd were on fire. I also recommend watching Lawrence's piece on how everyone underestimated Harris but he's been watching her for years and isn't surprised one bit by her performance.
https://youtu.be/rWyESnUs-xk
Thank you for that link!
This Arizonan thanks you!
The GOP has tied Trump around their necks like an albatross. And now that albatross is decaying, and the stench is sticking to you. We can smell you coming a mile away. I heard a republican strategist saying, "Kamala needs to prove herself to the voters." Yeah? Do they not listen? Trump showed everyone who they are, what they support. "Trump's gonna hammer her on immigration, on the economy!" How's that working for you? Your guy can't even stay on the side of reality, much less to a message. And he's dragging all you down ballot republicans with him. Face it, GOP - we will not let up. There is nothing left for you to salvage from Trump. You chose...poorly.
During the debate T***p said that Kamala was paying people to go to her rallies and busing them in because people had no reason to go to her events. He has always been one for 'projection' living in his own opposite land. I look forward to learning later about the evidence of him paying people to attend his events and busing them in because people had no reason to go to his rallies.
The Harris campaign must really be shelling out a lot to bus in enough people to fill arenas ;)
Yeah, those are the extra large jumbo buses I guess
Hi Simon, I’d like to please get your thoughts on the state of the race in NC right now.
On one hand, as it pertains to the potential in all seven battleground states…there has been a massive increase in voter registrations after Swift’s endorsement of Harris. This intensity and enthusiasm is really unprecedented at this point and is even bigger than what we saw after the Dobbsdecision in 2022. This is promising news all around as significant voter turnout (which is highly anticipated) will very likely help outpace the cheating tactics by the GOP.
That said, no wonder Harris was heavy handed in NC just the other day. Yesterday, the Republican-controlled North Carolina Supreme Court decided to permit RFK to have his name taken off the ballot in that state, although, as reported, he did not ask to be removed until four days after he withdrew from the race, which was five days after the deadline for withdrawing.
By the time he withdrew, county election boards were already printing ballots, and the court’s decision will require nearly three million ballots to be destroyed and new ones designed and printed. According to North Carolina’s state election director, this will take 18 to 23 days and will cut into early voting. North Carolina law requires state officials to mail ballots to Americans living abroad and to service members by September 6, the day that early voting was supposed to start. Of course, early voters there skew Democratic.
Also today, Republicans in North Carolina sued to overturn the decision of the state election board that students and employees of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill can use state-approved digital IDs as identification for voting. How do we keep up with such moves like these and still manage to win NC even amidst our strategy in focusing in on Robinson as such a toxic candidate?
It starts with a man named Elias. Marc Elias.
Marc Elias was hired onto the Harris team to tackle these GOP actions as they appear.
He’s on the Democratic front line which is great.🇺🇸🇺🇸
Self reporting today. Still isolating with COVID and was wondering if anyone has an old grandma’s recipe for ‘cat soup’? OK brain is a bit addled so my fingers are doing the talking with a donation to Nebraska Blue Dot and Winning with Dems. If chicken soup is good for the soul then Kamala debates are good for the polls. Cheers Hopium Mates
🤣🤣 hope you’re recovering well; sounds like you haven’t lost you sense of humor!
🇺🇸🇺🇸
Your comments on meidas touch about the Republican pollsters and how their polls demobilize dem voters needs to get more airtime, such as on Lawrence.