The ads featured Kamala pictured with a very unusual looking person who was trans and then copy about her supporting allowing prisoners to get gender reassignment surgery and then ended with this line “Kamala is for they, them and Trump is for you.” The ad - the GOP spent a reported $150 million on it- ran nationally during NFL games targeting young men and others. This ad undermined Kamala’s best line that test well for Dems namely that Trump only cares about himself and the Democrats care about.you. I don’t know why the campaign did not respond directly on this point by addressing the lies about the assertion and directly tying trump to approving gender reassignment surgery and then hammering him on being for himself and not for the voter (or young men or something). They could have done this without having to really get into the issue. I agree that the party needs to appeal to these lost voters before it’s too late.
Per Elizabeth Warren on a National Indivisible Zoom meeting, our first line of defense is to call your Senator and demand that they approve ALL Democratic Federal Judges. State-level Federal judges are our clearest line of defense going forward and we have less than two months to go!
Chuck Schumer just *gave up* on four of Biden’s circuit court judge nominees. Why? Because supposedly they didn’t have enough votes to be confirmed – translation: each of them was facing some Democratic opposition.
Instead of tightening the thumbscrews on the opponents, Schumer threw in the towel and is allowing Trump to appoint them! This is in exchange for Republicans allowing confirmation of about a dozen of Biden’s federal district judges.
I would vote to add Bondi to the list. There are at least 3 disqualifying things we know about her: (1) election denier, (2) she is going to prosecute prosecutors (WTF?) DOJ prosecuting its own prosecutors, unless they actually misbehaved, is beyond the pale, and (3) ethical issues with accepting the gift from Trump foundation and then not investigating Trump U.
I'm not sure which way that cuts. If she was required to register but failed to do so, that would be a problem, but lobbying for a foreign government in an above-board way doesn't sound unethical to me.
There’s also this⬇️about Bondi.I’m a long-term Floridian and was unaware.
“The new attorney general nominee, while serving as AG of Florida, fired the first two prosecutors to investigate the use of false evidence to kick people out of their homes.”
Yes, especially (1) and (3). And hammer on (3). Shout about how this is business as usual swamp politics. So, she turns a blind eye to Trump U's fraud, and now she is nominated for AG?? Classic Potomac Two-Step.
I would suggest Brian Tyler Cohen. He does daily broadcasts on his YouTube channel as he reports on the latest goings-on in Washington and around the country. He regularly interviews people, including attorneys Marc Elias and Glenn Kirschner, as well as various elected leaders. He is a REALLY good, professional reporter who tells the truth. In fact, his show is "No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen."
she owns 100,000 shares of truth social worth millions. and her brother put the deal together to get it on SEC. i live in fla. i dont remember her doing one constructive thing here except become more maga.
This is definitely the kind of stuff to call out. I think constantly shouting about how Trump's appointees are just bought-and-paid-for, status quo cronies, rich serving the richer, will have appeal. People think his nominations are OK because they falsely think they're a change or a deviation from the status quo. If we can break through about how this is just tit-for-tat, back scratching, self-serving politics-as-usual BS, it may resonate with a larger number of people. The swamp is not being drained, it is now a rich-serving-the-richer cesspool.
It is my hope that the Democratic Party start to piece together how they move forward and appeal and engage the low/middle class American that felt unheard and not supported by our Institutions. I for one think Biden took a huge miss step early in his term with the Border. I also think Biden and his close Circle did an injustice by having him run again. They knew his age, they knew the challenges that an elderly Biden would face on the Campaign Trail, and if he won, what that would mean for the coming four years. We need new leadership. I am disappointed to see my own Senator, Bernie Sanders….still running - it is time to let go and let a new generation come forward. You can point the fingers to the other side with all the interference this election had with Russia and the crazy lies that were fed on social media. I would rather see the Party take ownership of their weaknesses, come up with some new solutions,…and have “rebirth”. I do believe many folks that voted for Trump are going to have a rude awakening and will need somewhere to go.
I disagree that Biden didn't engage with the low/middle class American. The Party is always trying to get that white rural working class vote to no avail. Remember, the working class consists of many people of color - not just white Americans. In my opinion, the right wing and MSM pound this untruth. As for the border, that issue has been around for decades. The real issue is how the Democratic Party responds. Again, in my opinion, they always accept the right wing and MSM narrative and come from a defensive standpoint rather than attack back and call the outright liars when they are lying, etc. They should shout their achievements. As much as I love Biden, I agree with you that he should not have run for re-election. I honestly don't know if anyone could have won this time around with the same old playbook. The MSM seemed intent on getting Biden out and then Harris out.
President Biden was an astonishingly successful and experienced incumbent with the best economy in the world, and basically the same age as his opponent. He was a good candidate choice. Or should have been.
If it wasn’t his age, it would have been something else. The Press was determined to make sure of that. They made sure to portray Trump as interesting, tough, and basically functional, his dangerous insanity as somehow strategic genius, and his lawlessness as nothing more than a standard political attack from the left.
Meanwhile they endlessly amplified the tiniest blemish on every Democrat, creating this obvious double standard but also forcing Democrats into a permanent defensive stance. They portrayed Biden as too boring to have any accomplishments, and then kept complaining that Harris hadn’t introduced herself or explained her policies. She spent months answering those questions, and very well, but the Press just kept acting like she hadn’t spoken.
Journalism doesn’t do well under authoritarian regimes, so I hope they already got whatever they wanted from this strategy.
Totally agree on the border. That is on Pres Biden.
The way Biden-Harris was covered in MSM, but probably more importantly on alternative/RW media, was the biggest problem we faced. Trump et al. had effectively been campaigning for 3+ years.
People think institutions have failed them because that is all they heard about from almost every "information" source there is.
1. Bridge collapses covered for three straight weeks. Bridges repaired and back in working order in astonishingly short time thanks to the government, covered for a day.
2. Baby food crisis because a corporation had issues at its facility covered for four months. Government immediately addresses crisis by using far reaching resources like the military in combination with private companies, not covered or covered for a day.
3. COVID not on anyone's top five issues list. Why? Because the government launched a massively successful intervention program once vaccines became available. Not just in the US, but worldwide. The success of this intervention was not covered.
4. Large increase in manufacturing jobs due to CHIPS, Clean Energy funding, not covered, unless there was some inefficiency or minor impropriety uncovered. Then, all focus was on that.
5. Large increase in rural broadband due to ARP and IRA, not covered. Ironically, this is what gave more people than ever before more access to disinformation!
The media constantly focuses on the occasional problems in the institutions. Those should be covered, but it should absolutely be on equal footing with institutional success. Until that changes, and Dems get more vocal about successes without the pessimistic overtones they usually throw in, people will continue to feel abandoned by their institutions.
Okay, but when another parent starts bragging about their kid’s 4.8 GPA and implying other parents are therefore inadequate, the parent you describe will absolutely bring up their kid’s good grades.
No one needed to praise President Biden or government institutions to their faces. But we needed to make sure they were recognized at the school awards ceremony.
Yup. How to do this in the future? The MSM is a joke at this point. I wish the Democrats would stop normalizing them as well. By constantly taking up the MSM and right wing narratives, they never really just fight back and call a lie, a lie. Some do - the younger ones. Bernie does but it seems he directs at ... the Democrats ... on tv over and over.
As many of the folks on Simon's newsletter, I I grew up as a hippie, anti-war university student and early member of SDS during the 1960s-early 1970s. We were the dreaded "elite" of our time...and much of "middle America" Nixon voters hated us at the time because we aggressively opposed a purposeless war that was killing the children of the Americans who hated us.
..so it's not really a surprise that the same "elite" in far different form and times just lost an election to a criminal, juvenile delinquent dressed up as a garbage truck driver, who was peddling cultural intolerance and retribution to working class and Christian nationalist America.
We were fighting life and death issues then and we'll be fighting life and death issues after Trump is sworn in.
After 3-4 years of unending protests and 58,000 military deaths, America realized the national disaster created by our Vietnam war policies and changed course.
In our democracy, presidents and their governments cannot govern when they lose the consent of the governed.
I'm not sure how this principle will play out in 2025, but I'm 100% confident it will.
My take-away from Wallace-Wells' piece in the New York Times is that a very large number of voters voted with their emotions. Whoever manipulates emotions most effectively wins—Marketing 101.
I wish I had a solution to counter this trait of human nature.
You can't counter the trait; it's baked in. Awareness of it in oneself is helpful however. You make decisions through your feelings too. If you are aware of it, you can slow the process down and bring your neocortex online before your amygdyla presses the red button, so to speak. Those of us who believe we are making exclusively rational decisions often make decisions emotionally and then use logic to justify the decision. Therefore, Simon and others are absolutley spot on about the urgent need for there to be a pro-democracy noise machine at the level of or beyond the right wing noise machine. We are on the back foot currently, but our noise machine is growing (Hopium, MidasTouch, Courier Newsroom, Blue Sky, Sez Us, Bulwark, Lincoln Project...) the difference between us and the Right, if we do this right, is that we will not feed people lies, distortions and misinformation. Please support these efforts now if you want a solution.
Democratic Party has to start not being afraid to go after emotions. The irony is we have the truth on our side. Biden misspeaks and the MSM and right wing pound him over and over about his "garbage" comments. They did the same with Hillary over her "basket of deplorables". Trump literally called Harris stupid and JD Vance called her trash. Crickets from the right wing and MSM. Instead they showed the MAGA crowds cheering.
And they cheered after he faked having oral sex with a microphone. What decent person brings their family to his rallys? I hate to think the American public is this far down that slippery slope. Are these the Christian Nationalists?
Shameful! I teach adult Bible study in my church and this behavior by both Trump and his followers is unacceptable. So would taking Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid away from the elderly, sick, poor and disabled the very people that Christians are called to feed, clothe and protect. I am very much afraid that this administration will not be survivable for many.
Actually, I saw the entire portion that is described in the article. Unfortunately, Trump understood that his crowd liked to see a black woman dominated, or any woman. And the crowd loved it. That is very disturbing. He couldn't beat her in a debate so he dominates her in a crude act in front of a crowd. That he can do that to a crowd there or madden a crowd at the Elipse is very, very dangerous. It's not to say that he isn't mad, but it is the very dangerous madness of some of the worst tyrants of history who can get his followers to do his dirty work..
Agree 💯. Despicable. Another thing that Trump and his voters do when they say or do something crude, demeaning or offensive, they say it was a joke (as if that makes it okay) or that Trump was just being himself or funny or whatever. Seriously, if you have to describe what Trump did was not faking oral sex, by explaining the gesture movement by moment, um you've lost the argument. Don't forget he did this at least one other time.
I don’t know that we are afraid of going after emotions. But we went after joy, optimism, compassion, and patriotism, while the other side went after rage, disgust, bigotry, and revenge. Apparently when given a choice, voters preferred the grotesque.
Point taken. Whatever the reason, the republicans have no shame. They go for the jugular and the worst in their voters' fears, prejudices and insecurities. The Democrats try to take the high road and go after a voter assuming the voter is rational and reachable. So, whatever the reason, the message isn't working. We have to find a way to face the ugly truth about our society - there is a lot of it that is racist, bigoted and misogynistic. We have to find a way to acknowledge it and excite our base to the point where we crawl over broken glass to vote just like they do. It's extremely difficult bc there is so much voter suppression, apathy and a MSM that is, let's face it, a corporate entity that wants their tax cuts and ratings.
Rachel Bitcofer has been screaming this for eight years. The Dems have to abandon the theory of the rational voter. The vast, vast majority of people vote based on one of two things (1) primarily fear, (2) sometimes inspiration. They do not keep a mental balance sheet of "good things" vs "bad things" a party/candidate has done for them, or might do for them. Every policy is really an emotional message that should either disqualify your opponent, or increase a positive emotional attachment to you.
VP Harris actually ran one of the best campaigns I've ever seen. I think she understood the concept and executed it very well. However, I agree with Simon that her super-PAC didn't stoke enough fear about the havoc Trump's policies would wreak. She tried, but only had 3.5 months, and a ton of media (all kinds) inertia to break through. Even with that, she received the 3rd highest vote total in history. She just needed about 3M more, with about 300,000 coming in the blue wall states. It could have easily been a total wipeout had she not run such an effective campaign.
No kidding. WTAF with Michigan?? I lived there for 4 years. I worked in a pretty conservative company, but there were also lots of die-hard union supporters who would always vote Dem, even if they didn't like all of the policies. We weren't unionized, but you'd be hard pressed to find a foreign car in the parking lot. :-)
Yes about Sanders! I often wonder what exactly has he accomplished? My understanding is before 2016 not much, if anything. Since then, I still don't know but I have not cared enough about him to research him. He seems to come out and complain a lot about Democrats. He does draw crowds; I will give him that and there doesn't seem to be a microphone he will pass on.
Ha ha ha. My in-laws love Bernie, but my wife and I can't stand him. I slipped one time and called him "the Democratic Trump" in front of them during the 2020 primary, and they chuckled, followed by an excruciatingly awkward ten-second silence. :-)
I also like that Tessie McMillan Cotton in that piece Simon referenced in the NYT alluded to my personal favorite psychologist (Jung) when she said about Trump:
"His message may have sounded incoherent to a lot of liberals, but it managed to assemble a constituency of overlapping online communities that, in particular, are listening for archetypes and aesthetics, not policy. Trump gives them plenty."
While I agree with calling Senators and Representatives about the nominations, shouldn't we also be pressing them to come out against recess appointments? They can stop this abuse of the recess clause and hold on to their branch of government's power if they choose to. I see this as an important fight since the House and Senate letting Trump circumvent the advice and consent clause is telling him he can do whatever he wants and will lead to more giving in. It's only going to get harder to break his hold.
The NYT article was eye-popping. Kamala "lost" hundreds of thousands of votes in NY, NJ, and probably CA. It's great on the one hand that Trump didn't gain many votes, but head scratching that Kamala dropped by such huge numbers in Dem strongholds. Maybe a priority should be to reach out to every Dem that didn't vote and ask them why. If we rebuild that coalition, we win. We don't need to flip a single Trump voter.
Funny enough-- this is what Dan Pfieffer had been saying for 2.5 years. Although it would be awesome, we don't need to flip 2020 Trump voters. We need to bring in some new voters. But the surest way to win is to keep the 2020 coalition we built.
"Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed. This has confounded economists, who historically rely on these two variables to gauge how consumers feel about the economy. We propose that borrowing costs, which have grown at rates they had not reached in decades, do much to explain this gap. The cost of money is not currently included in traditional price indexes, indicating a disconnect between the measures favored by economists and the effective costs borne by consumers. We show that the lows in US consumer sentiment that cannot be explained by unemployment and official inflation are strongly correlated with borrowing costs and consumer credit supply. Concerns over borrowing costs, which have historically tracked the cost of money, are at their highest levels since the Volcker-era. We then develop alternative measures of inflation that include borrowing costs and can account for almost three quarters of the gap in US consumer sentiment in 2023. Global evidence shows that consumer sentiment gaps across countries are also strongly correlated with changes in interest rates. Proposed U.S.-specific factors do not find much supportive evidence abroad."
It makes sense and once again shows how the Fed and their irrational policies have not only screwed consumers but also the entire country (and world). It’s beyond frustrating.
When the Fed was first considering raising interest rates, Elizabeth Warren (I think) said something like, Wait a minute. If inflation is primarily due to supply chains-- way too much demand for limited supply including how supply reaches distribution points-- how is raising interest rates going to help that? If anything, it'll hurt it, because companies won't [be able to] borrow money to get equipment that will increase production and transportation capacity to ease supply problems.
She might have diagnosed things correctly. Raising interest rates may have done more harm than good. Impossible to know, but could be.
Well, they definitely concentrated on the battlegrounds, and did quite well in GOTV there, as the swings toward Trump were quite small. However, I'm very curious as to why Dems would have even needed GOTV in deep blue areas. Why were Dems so uninterested in voting in these places? I'd be highly interested in what those Dems have to say. Could unlock a more effective GOTV/messaging/platform going forward.
If you didn't read the news, you would barely have been aware there was a presidential election in New York. People just tuned it out because they assumed the state would go blue.
Very interesting. Do you think it was different than 2020 because of the urgency around COVID then? That's just a relatively giant drop off from both 2016 and 2020.
🔸️FITNESS FOR DUTY EVALUATIONS that are mandatory, like the military for high responsibility positions, would have stopped Trump before he got within a mile of the White House.
Bandy X Lee, Steven Hassan, and 100 other psychiatrists agree Trump has five dangerous mental pathologies as listed in the books "The More Dangerous Case of Donald Trump" and "The Psychology Of Trump Contagion - An Existential Threat to American Democracy and All Humankind".
"Containing Trump Contagion and Healing from Mental Pathology in Politics"
🔸️Fitness for Duty Evaluations start with everyone who interacts with the individual in question, and when red flags start to appear, 'say something.'
The US Military has procedures to follow that require individuals in question to have a Fitness for Duty Evaluation. Voters must demand the House and Senate do the same.
"Stephen Xenakis- Fitness for Duty Exams: Preventing Autocratic Abuse"
🔸️Outside the military are professionals like Dr. Bandy X. Lee who has several dozen colleagues all of whom are highly qualified to do Fitness for Duty Evaluations.
The U.S. House and Senate have several mechanisms to enforce their rules, including:
* Leadership
* Committees
* Floor Procedures
* Party Discipline
It's important to note that these mechanisms are not always used consistently or effectively. The more voters demand mentally fit leaders the more the House and Senate will comply.
🔸️I like what forensic psychologist Dr. Bandy X. Lee says that fascism and authoritarianism are just dangerous mental pathologies that worm their way into politics.
Everyone on Earth deserves and demands leadership that is mentally fit.
Fitness for Duty Evaluations performed by well respected psychiatrists ensures every country has leaders who do not serve their own power, but serve their own people.
With a pool of mentally fit candidates, we then have all the elections we wish.
I wonder if they are going to be slow to get their administration together. It looks potentially that way. Which might mean they do not make headway before the midterms.
Whether or not they do, they are going to pay a big price for either fulfilling irresponsible promises and cause damage, or not fulfilling irresponsible promises.
Simon and all. The New republic article gave me so much hope. The voters typically swing away from the incumbent admin if the economy if not hot. And they will swing away from any admin over reach. So I see my job as truth telling about the over reach. That is not what people voted for!!! Haunting me is the exit pole question where if you didn’t Id whose policy it was. D or R everyone wanted Kamala’s policies. That is our knife. Our jab. Right there.
Yes, this has been a recurring theme. Dan Pfieffer has written about it a lot. When polls are conducted on individual policies, with no political affiliation tied to them, the Dem policies do anywhere from extremely well to a small majority. This plays out when referendums on those policies are on the ballot (marijuana legalization, increase minimum wage, allowing former convicts who have served their time to vote, protecting reproductive rights, for example). But as soon as a political affiliation is tied to it, the numbers drop. This is 100% a branding problem that must be solved (by people much smarter than I am).
Simon, I received a "Substack Reads" in my email today (11/25) that includes a "Planet: Critical" substack (dated 11/19/2024) by Rachel Donald entitled, "Cyber-Security Experts Warn Election was Hacked". 1) Is this a credible source? 2) Is there any truth to its assertions? While I am not inclined to conspiracies - at the same time, I don't want to dismiss something out-of-hand if there might be something valid in what is being said. Since I trust that Hopium Chronicles is grounded in truth, I would appreciate your feedback on this.
The ads featured Kamala pictured with a very unusual looking person who was trans and then copy about her supporting allowing prisoners to get gender reassignment surgery and then ended with this line “Kamala is for they, them and Trump is for you.” The ad - the GOP spent a reported $150 million on it- ran nationally during NFL games targeting young men and others. This ad undermined Kamala’s best line that test well for Dems namely that Trump only cares about himself and the Democrats care about.you. I don’t know why the campaign did not respond directly on this point by addressing the lies about the assertion and directly tying trump to approving gender reassignment surgery and then hammering him on being for himself and not for the voter (or young men or something). They could have done this without having to really get into the issue. I agree that the party needs to appeal to these lost voters before it’s too late.
Per Elizabeth Warren on a National Indivisible Zoom meeting, our first line of defense is to call your Senator and demand that they approve ALL Democratic Federal Judges. State-level Federal judges are our clearest line of defense going forward and we have less than two months to go!
Chuck Schumer just *gave up* on four of Biden’s circuit court judge nominees. Why? Because supposedly they didn’t have enough votes to be confirmed – translation: each of them was facing some Democratic opposition.
Instead of tightening the thumbscrews on the opponents, Schumer threw in the towel and is allowing Trump to appoint them! This is in exchange for Republicans allowing confirmation of about a dozen of Biden’s federal district judges.
WE NEED NEW LEADERS!
He should get them passed no matter what. Democrats need to grow a spine!
I would vote to add Bondi to the list. There are at least 3 disqualifying things we know about her: (1) election denier, (2) she is going to prosecute prosecutors (WTF?) DOJ prosecuting its own prosecutors, unless they actually misbehaved, is beyond the pale, and (3) ethical issues with accepting the gift from Trump foundation and then not investigating Trump U.
She’s also a registered agent for Quatar.
I'm not sure which way that cuts. If she was required to register but failed to do so, that would be a problem, but lobbying for a foreign government in an above-board way doesn't sound unethical to me.
A country that gives bonuses to suicide bombers in Israel and loans money to Trump's family.
There’s also this⬇️about Bondi.I’m a long-term Floridian and was unaware.
“The new attorney general nominee, while serving as AG of Florida, fired the first two prosecutors to investigate the use of false evidence to kick people out of their homes.”
https://prospect.org/justice/2024-11-22-when-pam-bondi-protected-foreclosure-fraudsters/
Yes, especially (1) and (3). And hammer on (3). Shout about how this is business as usual swamp politics. So, she turns a blind eye to Trump U's fraud, and now she is nominated for AG?? Classic Potomac Two-Step.
I agree we should challenge every one and hammer home the truth.
Bondi will get confirmed unless there are other things to be revealed. But we should dirty them up as much as possible.
Agree. Yelling "Lock her up" at a rally does not show respect for the rule of law. At all.
Simon, what media outlets do you feel are worth supporting? How do you feel about The Intercept and Courier? Best social media to support?
I would suggest Brian Tyler Cohen. He does daily broadcasts on his YouTube channel as he reports on the latest goings-on in Washington and around the country. He regularly interviews people, including attorneys Marc Elias and Glenn Kirschner, as well as various elected leaders. He is a REALLY good, professional reporter who tells the truth. In fact, his show is "No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen."
Here is his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@briantylercohen.
And his Substack site: https://plus.briantylercohen.com/
Plus, here's a video that is worth the watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-YU9AeUrZg.
she owns 100,000 shares of truth social worth millions. and her brother put the deal together to get it on SEC. i live in fla. i dont remember her doing one constructive thing here except become more maga.
This is definitely the kind of stuff to call out. I think constantly shouting about how Trump's appointees are just bought-and-paid-for, status quo cronies, rich serving the richer, will have appeal. People think his nominations are OK because they falsely think they're a change or a deviation from the status quo. If we can break through about how this is just tit-for-tat, back scratching, self-serving politics-as-usual BS, it may resonate with a larger number of people. The swamp is not being drained, it is now a rich-serving-the-richer cesspool.
It is my hope that the Democratic Party start to piece together how they move forward and appeal and engage the low/middle class American that felt unheard and not supported by our Institutions. I for one think Biden took a huge miss step early in his term with the Border. I also think Biden and his close Circle did an injustice by having him run again. They knew his age, they knew the challenges that an elderly Biden would face on the Campaign Trail, and if he won, what that would mean for the coming four years. We need new leadership. I am disappointed to see my own Senator, Bernie Sanders….still running - it is time to let go and let a new generation come forward. You can point the fingers to the other side with all the interference this election had with Russia and the crazy lies that were fed on social media. I would rather see the Party take ownership of their weaknesses, come up with some new solutions,…and have “rebirth”. I do believe many folks that voted for Trump are going to have a rude awakening and will need somewhere to go.
I disagree that Biden didn't engage with the low/middle class American. The Party is always trying to get that white rural working class vote to no avail. Remember, the working class consists of many people of color - not just white Americans. In my opinion, the right wing and MSM pound this untruth. As for the border, that issue has been around for decades. The real issue is how the Democratic Party responds. Again, in my opinion, they always accept the right wing and MSM narrative and come from a defensive standpoint rather than attack back and call the outright liars when they are lying, etc. They should shout their achievements. As much as I love Biden, I agree with you that he should not have run for re-election. I honestly don't know if anyone could have won this time around with the same old playbook. The MSM seemed intent on getting Biden out and then Harris out.
President Biden was an astonishingly successful and experienced incumbent with the best economy in the world, and basically the same age as his opponent. He was a good candidate choice. Or should have been.
If it wasn’t his age, it would have been something else. The Press was determined to make sure of that. They made sure to portray Trump as interesting, tough, and basically functional, his dangerous insanity as somehow strategic genius, and his lawlessness as nothing more than a standard political attack from the left.
Meanwhile they endlessly amplified the tiniest blemish on every Democrat, creating this obvious double standard but also forcing Democrats into a permanent defensive stance. They portrayed Biden as too boring to have any accomplishments, and then kept complaining that Harris hadn’t introduced herself or explained her policies. She spent months answering those questions, and very well, but the Press just kept acting like she hadn’t spoken.
Journalism doesn’t do well under authoritarian regimes, so I hope they already got whatever they wanted from this strategy.
Kamala brought joy. Energy Pride in our democracy. That is our strength.
So, not so much "It's the economy, stupid!" but more like "It's the media, stupid!"
Well said! Yes! Spot on!
Totally agree on the border. That is on Pres Biden.
The way Biden-Harris was covered in MSM, but probably more importantly on alternative/RW media, was the biggest problem we faced. Trump et al. had effectively been campaigning for 3+ years.
People think institutions have failed them because that is all they heard about from almost every "information" source there is.
1. Bridge collapses covered for three straight weeks. Bridges repaired and back in working order in astonishingly short time thanks to the government, covered for a day.
2. Baby food crisis because a corporation had issues at its facility covered for four months. Government immediately addresses crisis by using far reaching resources like the military in combination with private companies, not covered or covered for a day.
3. COVID not on anyone's top five issues list. Why? Because the government launched a massively successful intervention program once vaccines became available. Not just in the US, but worldwide. The success of this intervention was not covered.
4. Large increase in manufacturing jobs due to CHIPS, Clean Energy funding, not covered, unless there was some inefficiency or minor impropriety uncovered. Then, all focus was on that.
5. Large increase in rural broadband due to ARP and IRA, not covered. Ironically, this is what gave more people than ever before more access to disinformation!
The media constantly focuses on the occasional problems in the institutions. Those should be covered, but it should absolutely be on equal footing with institutional success. Until that changes, and Dems get more vocal about successes without the pessimistic overtones they usually throw in, people will continue to feel abandoned by their institutions.
Very good point. People need to be reminded, though, of how 95% of the time, it is meeting or exceeding that expectation.
I'm one of those parents :-) -- but I both expect excellence and then praise it when it happens.
Okay, but when another parent starts bragging about their kid’s 4.8 GPA and implying other parents are therefore inadequate, the parent you describe will absolutely bring up their kid’s good grades.
No one needed to praise President Biden or government institutions to their faces. But we needed to make sure they were recognized at the school awards ceremony.
Yup. How to do this in the future? The MSM is a joke at this point. I wish the Democrats would stop normalizing them as well. By constantly taking up the MSM and right wing narratives, they never really just fight back and call a lie, a lie. Some do - the younger ones. Bernie does but it seems he directs at ... the Democrats ... on tv over and over.
As many of the folks on Simon's newsletter, I I grew up as a hippie, anti-war university student and early member of SDS during the 1960s-early 1970s. We were the dreaded "elite" of our time...and much of "middle America" Nixon voters hated us at the time because we aggressively opposed a purposeless war that was killing the children of the Americans who hated us.
..so it's not really a surprise that the same "elite" in far different form and times just lost an election to a criminal, juvenile delinquent dressed up as a garbage truck driver, who was peddling cultural intolerance and retribution to working class and Christian nationalist America.
We were fighting life and death issues then and we'll be fighting life and death issues after Trump is sworn in.
After 3-4 years of unending protests and 58,000 military deaths, America realized the national disaster created by our Vietnam war policies and changed course.
In our democracy, presidents and their governments cannot govern when they lose the consent of the governed.
I'm not sure how this principle will play out in 2025, but I'm 100% confident it will.
Be ready to act
🙏🏻
My take-away from Wallace-Wells' piece in the New York Times is that a very large number of voters voted with their emotions. Whoever manipulates emotions most effectively wins—Marketing 101.
I wish I had a solution to counter this trait of human nature.
You can't counter the trait; it's baked in. Awareness of it in oneself is helpful however. You make decisions through your feelings too. If you are aware of it, you can slow the process down and bring your neocortex online before your amygdyla presses the red button, so to speak. Those of us who believe we are making exclusively rational decisions often make decisions emotionally and then use logic to justify the decision. Therefore, Simon and others are absolutley spot on about the urgent need for there to be a pro-democracy noise machine at the level of or beyond the right wing noise machine. We are on the back foot currently, but our noise machine is growing (Hopium, MidasTouch, Courier Newsroom, Blue Sky, Sez Us, Bulwark, Lincoln Project...) the difference between us and the Right, if we do this right, is that we will not feed people lies, distortions and misinformation. Please support these efforts now if you want a solution.
Democratic Party has to start not being afraid to go after emotions. The irony is we have the truth on our side. Biden misspeaks and the MSM and right wing pound him over and over about his "garbage" comments. They did the same with Hillary over her "basket of deplorables". Trump literally called Harris stupid and JD Vance called her trash. Crickets from the right wing and MSM. Instead they showed the MAGA crowds cheering.
And they cheered after he faked having oral sex with a microphone. What decent person brings their family to his rallys? I hate to think the American public is this far down that slippery slope. Are these the Christian Nationalists?
Shameful! I teach adult Bible study in my church and this behavior by both Trump and his followers is unacceptable. So would taking Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid away from the elderly, sick, poor and disabled the very people that Christians are called to feed, clothe and protect. I am very much afraid that this administration will not be survivable for many.
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-11-13-trump-how-to-hear-a-fascist/ for a breakdown of how that faked oral sex worked with the crowd. It's not as simple as the clip we see everywhere.
Actually, I saw the entire portion that is described in the article. Unfortunately, Trump understood that his crowd liked to see a black woman dominated, or any woman. And the crowd loved it. That is very disturbing. He couldn't beat her in a debate so he dominates her in a crude act in front of a crowd. That he can do that to a crowd there or madden a crowd at the Elipse is very, very dangerous. It's not to say that he isn't mad, but it is the very dangerous madness of some of the worst tyrants of history who can get his followers to do his dirty work..
Agree 💯. Despicable. Another thing that Trump and his voters do when they say or do something crude, demeaning or offensive, they say it was a joke (as if that makes it okay) or that Trump was just being himself or funny or whatever. Seriously, if you have to describe what Trump did was not faking oral sex, by explaining the gesture movement by moment, um you've lost the argument. Don't forget he did this at least one other time.
I don’t know that we are afraid of going after emotions. But we went after joy, optimism, compassion, and patriotism, while the other side went after rage, disgust, bigotry, and revenge. Apparently when given a choice, voters preferred the grotesque.
Point taken. Whatever the reason, the republicans have no shame. They go for the jugular and the worst in their voters' fears, prejudices and insecurities. The Democrats try to take the high road and go after a voter assuming the voter is rational and reachable. So, whatever the reason, the message isn't working. We have to find a way to face the ugly truth about our society - there is a lot of it that is racist, bigoted and misogynistic. We have to find a way to acknowledge it and excite our base to the point where we crawl over broken glass to vote just like they do. It's extremely difficult bc there is so much voter suppression, apathy and a MSM that is, let's face it, a corporate entity that wants their tax cuts and ratings.
Rachel Bitcofer has been screaming this for eight years. The Dems have to abandon the theory of the rational voter. The vast, vast majority of people vote based on one of two things (1) primarily fear, (2) sometimes inspiration. They do not keep a mental balance sheet of "good things" vs "bad things" a party/candidate has done for them, or might do for them. Every policy is really an emotional message that should either disqualify your opponent, or increase a positive emotional attachment to you.
Campaign with the Id, govern with the Ego.
Re: Sanders-- Bingo!
VP Harris actually ran one of the best campaigns I've ever seen. I think she understood the concept and executed it very well. However, I agree with Simon that her super-PAC didn't stoke enough fear about the havoc Trump's policies would wreak. She tried, but only had 3.5 months, and a ton of media (all kinds) inertia to break through. Even with that, she received the 3rd highest vote total in history. She just needed about 3M more, with about 300,000 coming in the blue wall states. It could have easily been a total wipeout had she not run such an effective campaign.
Agree! I think she ran a brilliant campaign. Too many strong forces working against her - some of them from our own side. Michigan? Really?
No kidding. WTAF with Michigan?? I lived there for 4 years. I worked in a pretty conservative company, but there were also lots of die-hard union supporters who would always vote Dem, even if they didn't like all of the policies. We weren't unionized, but you'd be hard pressed to find a foreign car in the parking lot. :-)
Right!??? I don't get it.
Yes about Sanders! I often wonder what exactly has he accomplished? My understanding is before 2016 not much, if anything. Since then, I still don't know but I have not cared enough about him to research him. He seems to come out and complain a lot about Democrats. He does draw crowds; I will give him that and there doesn't seem to be a microphone he will pass on.
Ha ha ha. My in-laws love Bernie, but my wife and I can't stand him. I slipped one time and called him "the Democratic Trump" in front of them during the 2020 primary, and they chuckled, followed by an excruciatingly awkward ten-second silence. :-)
😂😂😂 My husband and I feel the same way.
Yes! I just said something similar.
I like it!
I also like that Tessie McMillan Cotton in that piece Simon referenced in the NYT alluded to my personal favorite psychologist (Jung) when she said about Trump:
"His message may have sounded incoherent to a lot of liberals, but it managed to assemble a constituency of overlapping online communities that, in particular, are listening for archetypes and aesthetics, not policy. Trump gives them plenty."
The archetypes that move people are SO important!
I agree with you Cindy.
While I agree with calling Senators and Representatives about the nominations, shouldn't we also be pressing them to come out against recess appointments? They can stop this abuse of the recess clause and hold on to their branch of government's power if they choose to. I see this as an important fight since the House and Senate letting Trump circumvent the advice and consent clause is telling him he can do whatever he wants and will lead to more giving in. It's only going to get harder to break his hold.
YES! I’ve already called mine. The Senate should not surrender its power.
Yes. Both.
The NYT article was eye-popping. Kamala "lost" hundreds of thousands of votes in NY, NJ, and probably CA. It's great on the one hand that Trump didn't gain many votes, but head scratching that Kamala dropped by such huge numbers in Dem strongholds. Maybe a priority should be to reach out to every Dem that didn't vote and ask them why. If we rebuild that coalition, we win. We don't need to flip a single Trump voter.
Funny enough-- this is what Dan Pfieffer had been saying for 2.5 years. Although it would be awesome, we don't need to flip 2020 Trump voters. We need to bring in some new voters. But the surest way to win is to keep the 2020 coalition we built.
This (Warning: long, technical) NBER paper the NYT article referenced is of note:
The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly
Marijn A. Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer, Karl Oskar Schulz & Lawrence H. Summers
https://www.nber.org/papers/w32163
Here's the abstract:
"Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed. This has confounded economists, who historically rely on these two variables to gauge how consumers feel about the economy. We propose that borrowing costs, which have grown at rates they had not reached in decades, do much to explain this gap. The cost of money is not currently included in traditional price indexes, indicating a disconnect between the measures favored by economists and the effective costs borne by consumers. We show that the lows in US consumer sentiment that cannot be explained by unemployment and official inflation are strongly correlated with borrowing costs and consumer credit supply. Concerns over borrowing costs, which have historically tracked the cost of money, are at their highest levels since the Volcker-era. We then develop alternative measures of inflation that include borrowing costs and can account for almost three quarters of the gap in US consumer sentiment in 2023. Global evidence shows that consumer sentiment gaps across countries are also strongly correlated with changes in interest rates. Proposed U.S.-specific factors do not find much supportive evidence abroad."
That makes sense. Something I had not really pondered before.
It makes sense and once again shows how the Fed and their irrational policies have not only screwed consumers but also the entire country (and world). It’s beyond frustrating.
When the Fed was first considering raising interest rates, Elizabeth Warren (I think) said something like, Wait a minute. If inflation is primarily due to supply chains-- way too much demand for limited supply including how supply reaches distribution points-- how is raising interest rates going to help that? If anything, it'll hurt it, because companies won't [be able to] borrow money to get equipment that will increase production and transportation capacity to ease supply problems.
She might have diagnosed things correctly. Raising interest rates may have done more harm than good. Impossible to know, but could be.
The numbers are clear, if only the Dems had got out the vote!
Well, they definitely concentrated on the battlegrounds, and did quite well in GOTV there, as the swings toward Trump were quite small. However, I'm very curious as to why Dems would have even needed GOTV in deep blue areas. Why were Dems so uninterested in voting in these places? I'd be highly interested in what those Dems have to say. Could unlock a more effective GOTV/messaging/platform going forward.
If you didn't read the news, you would barely have been aware there was a presidential election in New York. People just tuned it out because they assumed the state would go blue.
Very interesting. Do you think it was different than 2020 because of the urgency around COVID then? That's just a relatively giant drop off from both 2016 and 2020.
How to Stop Authoritarians Before They Start
🔸️FITNESS FOR DUTY EVALUATIONS that are mandatory, like the military for high responsibility positions, would have stopped Trump before he got within a mile of the White House.
Bandy X Lee, Steven Hassan, and 100 other psychiatrists agree Trump has five dangerous mental pathologies as listed in the books "The More Dangerous Case of Donald Trump" and "The Psychology Of Trump Contagion - An Existential Threat to American Democracy and All Humankind".
"Containing Trump Contagion and Healing from Mental Pathology in Politics"
https://youtu.be/HTkCqU5LM-k?si=f6g0PolglC21w1nR
🔸️Fitness for Duty Evaluations start with everyone who interacts with the individual in question, and when red flags start to appear, 'say something.'
The US Military has procedures to follow that require individuals in question to have a Fitness for Duty Evaluation. Voters must demand the House and Senate do the same.
"Stephen Xenakis- Fitness for Duty Exams: Preventing Autocratic Abuse"
https://youtu.be/vdtChF07ryU?si=VJ5dauWFoUQg10uH
🔸️Outside the military are professionals like Dr. Bandy X. Lee who has several dozen colleagues all of whom are highly qualified to do Fitness for Duty Evaluations.
The U.S. House and Senate have several mechanisms to enforce their rules, including:
* Leadership
* Committees
* Floor Procedures
* Party Discipline
It's important to note that these mechanisms are not always used consistently or effectively. The more voters demand mentally fit leaders the more the House and Senate will comply.
🔸️I like what forensic psychologist Dr. Bandy X. Lee says that fascism and authoritarianism are just dangerous mental pathologies that worm their way into politics.
Everyone on Earth deserves and demands leadership that is mentally fit.
Fitness for Duty Evaluations performed by well respected psychiatrists ensures every country has leaders who do not serve their own power, but serve their own people.
With a pool of mentally fit candidates, we then have all the elections we wish.
I wonder if they are going to be slow to get their administration together. It looks potentially that way. Which might mean they do not make headway before the midterms.
Whether or not they do, they are going to pay a big price for either fulfilling irresponsible promises and cause damage, or not fulfilling irresponsible promises.
Simon and all. The New republic article gave me so much hope. The voters typically swing away from the incumbent admin if the economy if not hot. And they will swing away from any admin over reach. So I see my job as truth telling about the over reach. That is not what people voted for!!! Haunting me is the exit pole question where if you didn’t Id whose policy it was. D or R everyone wanted Kamala’s policies. That is our knife. Our jab. Right there.
Yes, this has been a recurring theme. Dan Pfieffer has written about it a lot. When polls are conducted on individual policies, with no political affiliation tied to them, the Dem policies do anywhere from extremely well to a small majority. This plays out when referendums on those policies are on the ballot (marijuana legalization, increase minimum wage, allowing former convicts who have served their time to vote, protecting reproductive rights, for example). But as soon as a political affiliation is tied to it, the numbers drop. This is 100% a branding problem that must be solved (by people much smarter than I am).
Simon, I received a "Substack Reads" in my email today (11/25) that includes a "Planet: Critical" substack (dated 11/19/2024) by Rachel Donald entitled, "Cyber-Security Experts Warn Election was Hacked". 1) Is this a credible source? 2) Is there any truth to its assertions? While I am not inclined to conspiracies - at the same time, I don't want to dismiss something out-of-hand if there might be something valid in what is being said. Since I trust that Hopium Chronicles is grounded in truth, I would appreciate your feedback on this.
Thanks for the NYT article from Wallace-Wells, Simon (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/22/opinion/election-postmortems.html, so those reading know which article I'm talking about).
Interestingly, my brother made many of the same points in an earlier blog post of his (https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/unpaid-copy-more-on-the-2024-autopsy). For what it's worth.
Feel free to check it out, everyone. Very proud of him.