146 Comments

So, Trump is going to debate like he is going to testify. He won’t. But he will use the suspense.

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Can’t wait to hear his whiny excuses.

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Thanks, Simon. The new campaign makes a lot of sense.

Any thoughts on Cook moving NC Gov from leans blue to toss up? I was a bit surprised by this.

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I read it was because of the huge fundraising totals posted up by the ultra-MAGA candidate. ( Who claims there was no holocaust and Michelle Obama is a man. That guy.)

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Here is part of Cook Political’s rationale:

“Our initial rating of this contest, now set between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, was Lean Democrat, given the party’s recent track record of winning even as former President Donald Trump carried the state. Plus, Robinson’s lengthy history of controversial comments — from maligning women to attacking the LGBTQ+ community to making anti-Semitic remarks — initially made him look like a weaker candidate akin to Pennsylvania’s Doug Mastriano last cycle.

“But unlike Mastriano, Robinson is raising actual money — more than $10.5 million so far. And according to both Democrats and Republicans, he’s on track to bring in the most money ever for a Republican gubernatorial nominee — even outpacing the most recent GOP governor, Pat McCrory…"

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So Cook's analysis says Robinson's comments "initially" made him look like a weaker candidate. INITIALLY? INITIALLY????? What the actual "f--k" - - did his prior remarks "wear off"? "Initially" they were bad and now voters are just saying "meh".... I am getting so tired of the entire political pundit class (present company excepted).

And Cook's anaylsis showing that among people who pay attgention, Biden's up around 4 but for those respondents who get their news from... wherever (or not at all) - Trump's up TEN. So do we just hope those low-info voters don't vote? That they will pick up their phones for a pollster but can't be bothered to vote? (I need to go for a walk and get out of this funk... too much Steve Schmidt this morning.)

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Yikes, avoid Steve when you’re feeling down!

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Oh My God -you are right - don't watch "The Warning" when you're feeling down.... his appearance a little bit ago on Scripps - sometimes I wonder how long Scripps will keep him on!

Recently, he went on so long with his "doom and gloom" that the anchor/host couldn't speak at all! And Steve NEVER talks about all the women that will come out to vote - - - and to look at RED STATE KANSAS and slightly-less red OHIO referendums post-Roe. I don't think he's ever said anything about that impact.

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Yeah, also avoid that other Steve (Steve Hayes of The Dispatch)

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Everything is soft, close and that's why we just have to go work our asses off and go win this thing.

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. . . by the mother of all landslides, in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

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Loud and proud ! 🌈Kudos to those who helped flip a seat blue and elect Donna Deegan as Mayor of the largest city in Florida ! 💙

Locals Defy DeSantis Pride Light Ban, Light Bridge Up With Flashlights In Jacksonville

⬇️

https://www.threads.net/@ajsandyman/post/C7rMbtgu306 https://www.threads.net/@ajsandyman/post/C7rMbtgu306

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Flashlights for Freedom!!

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Beautiful!!!!!

Thank you for posting this Kathy. I hope they know there’s millions outside

( of Florida) fighting for them too🫶. We just need to keep organizing and never give up!!

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Perhaps Clint Eastwood will provide the empty chair, as a stand-in for ex-president Trump?

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Was disappointed to see the NYT report this morning ….( and I know, official campaign finance reports won’t be out for a while) that Trump raised $54 million in the 24 hours post-conviction. Closing the gap w/ Biden. —- 30% was from brand new donors.

I feel like I’m in an alternate universe.

I’m working for Dems, furiously writing postcards to swing state voters to combat depression but … it gets difficult.

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The source for this claim is the Trump Campaign. Surely Trump never exaggerates or lies?

/s

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Well - that's what I thought, too, but then the numbers for an earlier month we thought Trump had inflated (April) turned out to be true; Trump had out-raised Biden for the first time in 2024 that month (CNBC reported 5-21-24) $76 million to $51 million the month Trump had all those billionaires to Maralago.

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that's not true. If he had raised 50m in Mar-a-lago he would have raised far more than 76m. We headed into May with enormous cash on hand advantages in the Presidential race, Senate races and House races.

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Ok. Thanks.

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Besides, we all know where the Trump funds are going, and it’s not to campaigning.

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He is going to need all the money for his multiple appeals.

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Yes, Trump also buys "polls" favoring him.

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Speaking of his lies, I would so much like to see a daily lie tracker. I think the Wash Post, or somewhere, kept a count of his lies, but I what I'd like to see is a stand-alone, one- click Lie of the Day kind of thing that is easily accessible. Not all his lies, that would get boring, but the most bizarre or destructive lie told, either verbally or on social media, each day. With short, catchy, mocking commentary. If, by some fluke, he told no lie on any given day, the Lie of the Day notes it, also with commentary.

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Ahhhhh…..! You took the words out of my mouth! Who T F can believe anything that the campaign says?????!!!!!! Anyway must if that just goes to pay all his legal fees!!!!😵‍💫

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It's like Simon says: they want you to give up. Don't.

They're on increasingly shaky ground:

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/01/poll-trump-conviction-election-independent-voters

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Thank you! Just skimmed the Axios article - that's good info regarding independents. I'll be quiet now, I don't need to be over here dampening spirits... or "yukking other people's yum" I think my 9 year old granddaughter always says LOL.

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Hey SF, at seeing that news I also felt "WTF" and outrage etc. Then I reminded myself of Simon's advice to focus on spreading Biden accomplishments and Hopium. Like you, I am part of this new, enormous, grassroots system of people getting out the vote. That helps me not get too beaten down by awful news from MAGA Land, a place populated by people afflicted by FORDS (Fascist Objective Reality Denial Syndrome).

(Making up acronyms that acknowledge important truths is also one of my coping mechanisms!)

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None of that money is going to down-ballot candidates. He's spending it all on legal fees. Plus, we all need to check their FEC report down the road to see if they were lying, and there's a good chance they were.

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As Simon said, he lies about everything including how much money he raised. We won't know until the next FEC report is released. Best not to spread anything they say around any place.

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I hear you. ( Read you?) I view Trump’s (or his campaign’s)comments — always — with a huge dose of skepticism & rarely if ever repeat them ..

But the CNBC report ( re: April numbers) seemed to be based on FEC numbers… and it surprised me so much I wanted to check it out… anyway sounds like we still have a big cash advantage & Dems definitely have an organizational / GOTV advantage esp in the battleground states.

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Regardless, we do have to take into account that the RNC now belongs to Trump and he is siphoning the donations to pay legal fees etc. They have no ground game either. They literally dismantled the statewide campaign structure that was in place and fired 75% of the campaign employees. Additionally, they have not reached out to Haley voters and disaffected Republicans and Independents and have basically insulted the Black voters. It's like trying to appeal with Italian voters by saying... hey-- we are an organized crime family too, so you should relate to us! What does it say when Trump promises death penalty to all drug users but puts drug dealers on the stage with him endorsing him?

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Thanks Simon. If a Dem group targets “unlikely” voters does they mean statistically they will more often break for Trump? Or is it that when they decide to vote they do research that makes them more likely a Biden voter? In other words is there risk in targeting unlikely voters?

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OOH - that is SUCH a good question!!!

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Our theory of the case is that people go for checked out to checked in Rs lose ground due to the ugliness of MAGA. Once they understand the choice, as we've seen in 2018 through early this year, we gain and they struggle. So we should be confident that less checked in voters as they go through this process - if we are talking to them - will come our way and help us win. That is the theory, and there is a lot of data and evidence to back it up. Please listen to my MSNBC hit.

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Thank you for the detailed explanation.

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Simon -- if Amish voters stay home or flip in PA, WI Dems win. Also in OH, IN, even in FL. I have a plan. Nobody from DNC gets back to me.

DFS

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Surely there must be a field office near you?

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I am a member of the local Democratic Executive Committee. I am a DNC "social ambassador." I tell this to DNC people all the time. I've sent dozens if not hundreds of emails. I have spoken to people in Pa,, I know Casey's sister, been at it since 2020, the Dem chair from my hometown and his predecessor worked on it with me, and talk to the Biden people working on VA issues, etc . I went to law school with a former DNC chair. When I worked in DC, my wife volunteered there. Many say they pass it on but....crickets.

Once upon a time, I was the lawyer for a township in Pa with more Amish per square inch than any other. My county bar filed a brief at SCOTUS in support of the Amish. I wrote zoning ordinances that extended the 19th century.... After I left, my brother represented several townships with Amish residents...... they vote 100% Republican.

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Apologies for my presumption.

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Is it a reproductive choice issue with the Amish? I could see them being one issue voters.

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They oppose all secular government -- except their own. Requires diplomacy.

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I thought they were opposed to voting - taking part in anything governmental, except of course their own local governing religious bodies.

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They vote. Do not run candidates. Do not sit for public office. Won't sit on a jury. My brother says that some did attend supervisor meetings after I left.

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Now that Trump will be back on the campaign trail, June will be good for Democrats. The more we see his ugliness, the better.

Keep up the fight, fellow Hopiums.

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The Biden-Harris campaign's "Flag" video is absolutely extraordinary. I remember thinking so when I first saw it last year and agree, it's infinitely more moving and resonant now.

Postcards to Voters volunteers wrote for Tony Vargas in his race for the NE-02 seat in 2022. He came very close to winning and I'm happy to contribute to the NE Democrats this year. Thank you for adding that to the list!

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Act Blue has very poor reviews. I would donate here, but don’t want to use Act Blue. I donated to Tammy Baldwin’s campaign with a personal check. At this point I’m hesitant to use Act Blue.

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ActBlue powers all of our campaigns and is some of the most important tech we have.

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I wish they did more than just ask for money. I want links to candidates’ platforms even if conventional wisdom is that voters don’t care about that. People I talk to do and I want a source that gives me links for that info so I can quickly answer my friends’ questions.

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poor reviews where, could you specify? I give to them all the time, and have only heard good things....

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Dang! I adore ActBlue, which I've found easy to use with minimal BS. I think have used it since the beginning. I'm so glad you're here with us in this important moment and hope you'll feel comfortable supporting Democratic candidates through ActBlue.

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I’ve never had an issue with it over several years of use.

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I have not had any problems with ActBlue. They are like my paypal for political contributions.

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I've also donated through ActBlue and have had no issues with them at all.

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Axios headline today: "49% of Independents think Trump should drop out post-guilty verdict"

Simon, I know you warned against paying too much attention to snap polls after the Guilty verdict, but this is striking and seems highly relevant. Certainly it should give plenty of cover for pundits and newspapers to call for Mr. Trump to drop out. To your knowledge, have any done so – in line what you yourself called for?

“Every news organization in America should be calling on Trump to drop out of the race and for the GOP to replace him. He is a sick, depraved, corrupt and dangerous man, and eternal shame on the Republicans who have rallied behind him.”

– Simon Rosenberg, 27 May

.

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I did have some hope that the RNC would decide to replace Trump as their candidate after conviction but it seems like the Trump campaign has taken over the RNC so it isn't really the Republican Party anymore... it is the Trump Family Party. But I would love to entertain the idea of RNC instead begging Haley to be their candidate at convention and voting for her... then that does change the dynamics of the race. However, d/t the cult status of Trump, I believe he would run as an Independent if he had to and split the Conservative/Republican vote.

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There's a widespread belief that "nothing gets done" in Washington. I hear this a lot. So many people aren't aware of what Biden and Congress has done to try to make their lives better. However, we know that people develop a more favorable view of Biden and Democrats when they learn about what they HAVE done over the past 3 1/2 years.

I would love to have a list of those accomplishments to share with uninformed voters. I think it would have a big impact on persuading them to vote for Biden. I'm willing to compile this list, but I need help. If you think this is a good idea and are willing to help, please comment below with EXAMPLES of accomplishments under the Biden administration. Be as BRIEF as possible. (For example, "capped insulin costs at $35") If we put our minds to it, I'm guessing we could come up with a list of at least 100 legislative or policy accomplishments.

I will check back in this comment area next week and compile the list into a document that HC subscribers can use as they see fit.

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“Biden administration secures record-level funding for HBCUs” - story by Tashi McQueen, published in The Afro-American newspaper, Vol. 132 No. 44 (June 1, 2024 - June 7, 2024 issue). First sentence reads: “The Biden-Harris administration recently announced record funding of more than $16 billion for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) within fiscal years (FY) 2021 to 2024.” I recommend reading the whole story.

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Suggest you check out “ What President Biden DidToday” on Substack.

Also the White House sends out frequently updated reporting on their site. FYI🇺🇸🇺🇸

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I had no idea there was such a place. Is there something comparable for Harris because we should know what the VP is going too. I have tried to find out more about Harris besides her campaign rallies.

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Think probably not a separate site for VP. I’ve read these two products and her actions have been peppered throughout as a representative of Biden’s/ the teams actions.

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The list could (should) also include things Democrats TRIED to do but that Congressional Republicans blocked or opposed. (for ex., bipartisan immigration bill)

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Bipartisan immigration and enhanced border control bill.

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CHIPS Act - Billions start flowing for domestic chip manufacturing. Vital to US security. Provide good jobs around the country.

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Carolyn, my biggest entries to your list are what President Biden and Leader Jeffries were able to get done in the 118th Congress. They raised the debt ceiling, passed the Defense Authorization Act, passed multiple CR's and a federal budget all while avoiding a government shut down. The most influential members of the majority party wanted to shut down and to default on our debt. From a minority position, the US stayed open. That is a miracle that only could have been achieved through skill and keeping the lines of communication with extremely unstable humans.

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https://www.reddit.com/r/JoeBiden/comments/ym0b7h/the_accomplishments_of_the_biden_admin_and/?share_id=Qx7sQCIr02OzUpELViv4q&utm_content=2&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_source=share&utm_term=1

So, some of this is repetitive-- take what you can use and leave the rest. Click the link as there is more... also check the first year and the third year accomplishments...

So, I think this is the first 2 years:

There is no reason why Democrats maintaining a majority in Congress is in doubt. Inflation? Every Republican voted against lowering costs for Americans. Every. Republican.

43 Senate Republicans went out of their way to strip a $35 cap on out-of-pocket insulin costs out of the bill.

The GOP's only policy position is that of 'what will hurt people most?' In 2022, Biden and Dems have done the following:

passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the biggest investment in fighting climate change in history

passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the largest investment in infrastructure since Eisenhower

passed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, breaking a 30-year streak of federal inaction on gun violence legislation

signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law

took out the leader of al Qaeda

ended America's longest war

reauthorized and strengthened the Violence Against Women Act

signed the PACT Act, a bill to address veteran burn pit exposure

signed the NATO accession protocols for Sweden and Finland

issued executive order to protect reproductive rights

canceled $10,000 of student loan debt for borrowers making less than $125,000 and canceled $20,000 in debt for Pell Grant recipients (ultimately blocked by SCOTUS but the Biden Admin keeps finding new ways to forgive more student debt every quarter-- they don't give up.)

canceled billions in student loan debt for borrowers who were defrauded

nominated now-Supreme Court Associate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson to replace Justice Breyer

brought COVID under control in the U.S. (e.g., COVID deaths down 90% and over 220 million vaccinated)

formed Monkeypox response team to reach communities at highest risk of contracting the virus

unemployment at a 50-year low

on track to cut deficit by $1.3 trillion, largest one-year reduction in U.S. history

limited the release of mercury from coal-burning power plants

$5 billion for electric vehicle chargers- $119 billion budget surplus in January 2022, first in over two years

united world against Russia’s war in Ukraine

ended forced arbitration in workplace sexual assault cases

reinstated California authority to set pollution standards for cars

ended asylum restrictions for children traveling alone

signed the Emmett Till Anti-Lynching Act, the first federal ban on lynching after 200 failed attempts

Initiated “use it or lose it" policy for drilling on public lands to force oil companies to increase production

released 1 million barrels of oil a day for 6 months from strategic reserves to ease gas prices

rescinded Trump-era policy allowing rapid expulsion of migrants

expunged student loan defaults

overhauled USPS finances to allow the agency to modernize its service

required federal dollars spent on infrastructure to use materials made in America

restored environmental reviews for major infrastructure projects

Launched $6 billion effort to save distressed nuclear plants

provided $385 million to help families and individuals with home energy costs through the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. (This is in addition to $4.5 billion provided in the American Rescue Plan.)

national registry of police officers who are fired for misconduct

tightened restrictions on chokeholds, no-knock warrants, and transfer of military equipment to police departments

required all federal law enforcement officers to wear body cameras

$265 million for South Florida reservoir, key component of Everglades restoration

major wind farm project off West coast to provide electricity for 1.5 million homes

continued Obama administration's practice of posting log records of visitors to White House

devoted $2.1 billion to strengthen US food supply chain

invoked Defense Production Act to rapidly expand domestic production of critical clean energy technologies

enacted two-year pause of anti-circumvention tariffs on solar

allocated funds to federal agencies to counter 300-plus anti-LGBTQ laws by state lawmakers in 2022

relaunched cancer 'moonshot' initiative to help cut death rate

expanded access to emergency contraception and long-acting reversible contraception

prevented states from banning Mifepristone, a medication used to end early pregnancy that has FDA approval

21 executive actions to reduce gun violence

Climate Smart Buildings Initiative: Creates public-private partnerships to modernize Federal buildings to meet agencies’ missions, create good-paying jobs, and cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Paying for today’s needed renovations with tomorrow’s energy savings without requiring upfront taxpayer funding

ended Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy

Operation Fly-Formula, bringing needed baby formula (19 missions to date)

executive order protecting travel for abortion

invested more in crime control and prevention than any president in history

provided death, disability, and education benefits to public safety officers and survivors who are killed or injured in the line of duty

Reunited 500 migrant families separated under Trump

$1.66 billion in grants to transit agencies, territories, and states to invest in 150 bus fleets and facilities

brokered joint US/Mexico infrastructure project; Mexico to pay $1.5 billion for US border security

blocked 4 hospital mergers that would've driven up prices and is poised to thwart more anti-competition consolidation attempts

10 million jobs—more than ever created before at this point of a presidency

record small business creation

banned paywalls on taxpayer-funded research

best economic growth record since Clinton

struck deal between major U.S. railroads and unions representing tens of thousands of workers after about 20 hours of talks, averting rail strike

eliminated civil statute of limitations for child abuse victims

announced $156 million for America's first-of-its-kind critical minerals refinery, demonstrating the commercial viability of turning mine waste into clean energy technology.

started process of reclassifying Marijuana away from being a Schedule 1 substance and pardoning all federal prisoners with possession offenses

Note: This list only reflects 2022 accomplishments. Click here for 2021 accomplishments. (click above link for this)

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Received my 200 North Carolina postcards yesterday! Today is rainy so a good day to start writing them! 💙

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Go for it, North Carolina! My sister lives there, in a constant state of 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻. It's on my list, once WI, MI, and PA look solid!

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How does the postcard campaign work? I would like to participate in a postcard campaign for my district's Democratic candidate for Congress. I want to flip the seat. Are these for just specific campaigns or can it apply to any Democratic candidate?

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Ask the campaign if they are doing postcards.

You can find many areas to write for at https://fieldteam6-partners.herokuapp.com/

Our team has NC, GA and TX lists active there. There are many others.

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I just signed up with turnoutpac.org/postcards. Looking forward to getting my cards - I haven’t done this before, but if it gets someone out to vote, well that’s all for the good.

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Some grassroots org and progressive PACS (ie VOTE FORWARD; BlueCD2) focus on activating lower and mid-propensity voters. Given the story of the two electorates, are we hurting rather than helping our chances? Is there a way to further refine the lists of those we are contacting to reach those most likely to vote blue?

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Advice please for a reliable source of the best voter addresses for GOTV postcarding? I have been wanting to start a GOTV postcard-writing table at my UU church every Sunday. I have everything except voter addresses. I got overwhelmed with the number of places to request addresses from. Can someone point me to the most reliable source of the best voter addresses for GOTV postcarding in the most important states? (I gather these are at the moment MI, WI and PA, but being joined by AZ, GA, NE, NC, NV.) Thanks so much! And thanks Simon for everything.

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I would suggest Postcards to Swing States---they provide the postcards, addresses, and scripts, and if you are expecting to get a lot written, you could even order for several states--some of your writers might be more drawn to one than another. Those are pure GOTV postcards, not persuasion, and are held until a mailing date in October. https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/

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brilliant, thanks! Doing now! Postcarding starts tomorrow! Overwhelm conquered! It's June, dammit! :)

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👁️❤️4e📢

Propaganda

🔸Lie

🔸Insult opponents

🔸Project weakness on others

🔸Deflect

🔸Distract

🔸Present competing versions of reality

🔸Us vs Them

🔸Confuse, disorient, coerce followers

🔸Create fear

🔸Repeat lies so followers believe

"The Cult of Trump" p16 Hassan

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