Biden's Successful G20, New Pods, I'd Much Rather Be Us Than Them, Ballot Progress in FL
The Monday Hopium roundup. Welcome new subscribers!
Friends,
Happy Monday all! The House returns this week, and we’ll learn quickly whether we’re going to have another Republican government shutdown this fall. Early voting in Virginia starts on September 22nd. The effort to get a ballot initiative to roll back DeSantis’ 6 week abortion ban in front of Florida voters crossed a major threshold last week. Thanks to those in the Hopium community who are working on this vital project. Both the Biden campaign and the SuperPAC launched major new ad efforts in recent days. You can find links to the ads below. I am deeply encouraged by the ads themselves and that the campaign has been turned on now in earnest - it is time.
The President has had a very successful G20/Asia trip where among other things he announced a far-sighted economic and trade corridor linking India, the Middle East and Europe: With Xi and Putin and Absent, Biden Steps Into The Void to Woo Allies. While we remember 9/11 today, note that due to the hard work of so many in the US and allied governments, America has not suffered a major *foreign* terrorist attack on our soil since that dark day.
The White House released this short video about the G20:
Now to our Monday roundup……..
New Pods and Press - In her Sunday Washington Post column, Jennifer Rubin cites one of my recent Hopium posts:
Third, even if you think polling is somewhat reliable, there’s no evidence that polling more than a year (or even eight months) before a presidential election is accurate. Democratic consultant Simon Rosenberg (one of the few to debunk the red wave in advance of the 2022 midterms) recently wrote: “At the end of the day polling is only a snapshot into a moment, and cannot predict anything. Things change all the time in politics — change is the constant.”
I talk about the polls and our current political moment in two terrific new podcasts. The first is a far-ranging talk with Reed Galen of the Lincoln Project. The second is the White Flag show with former Republican Congressman Joe Walsh. I also joined Mehdi Hasan last night on MSNBC to talk about how when it comes to 2024 I would much rather be us than them. Here’s a clip:
Upcoming Events
Tue, September 19th, 7pm ET - Hopium Paid Subscriber Political Briefing and Hangout - RSVP here.
Tue, September 26th, 7pm ET - Full Hopium Community Political Briefing and Discussion - RSVP here.
The Economy is Strong, Inflation is Down, There Is No Recession On The Horizon And America Is A Global Leader on Climate Once Again
The Economy Is In The Midst of Something Wonderful (and Unexpected)
It’s Time For A Big Rethink On How We Poll and Talk About The Economy
Election and Polling Analysis - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them
On Biden’s Age (New)
My August Political Briefing and Discussion (good orientation for new subscribers)
The Election Data I Am Focused On
Democrats have averaged 51% of the vote over the last 4 Presidential elections, our best showing over 4 elections since FDR’s Presidency.
Democrats have won more votes in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of any political party in US history.
In a “red wave” year, 2022, Democrats gained ground from 2020 in 7 key battlegrounds: AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA. We also picked up 4 state legislative chambers, 2 governorships, and 1 US Senate seat. As we’ve written 2022 was not a single nationalized election, but really two elections - a bluer election in the battleground where we gained, and a redder election outside where we did not. We’ve seen this strong Dem performance continue into 2023 with impressive wins in CO, FL, OH, PA and WI. A recent 538 analysis finds Dems outperforming the partisan lean in districts this year by an average of 10 points in 38 special elections across the US - this is a big deal, and similar to what we saw post Dobbs in 2022.
Democrats are having their best run in the Southwest since the 1940s and 50s. In 2004 Bush won AZ, CO, NM, NV, Rs controlled 5 of their 8 Senate seats, 14 of their 21 House seats. In 2020 Biden was the first Democratic President to win all 4 of these states in a single election since FDR. Today Rs control none of those 8 Senate seats and we control 14 of 24 House seats there.
Can we get to 55% nationally in 2024? I think so.
Biden Campaign Comms and Ads - Off To A Very Strong Start
New Biden Economic Ad and New Biden Ukraine/Global Leadership Ad (New)
Biden’s Strong Launch, Day 2 (more really good ads)
Our Democratic Grassroots Is Stronger Than It’s Even Been/Becoming An Info Warrior for Democracy/Getting Louder/The Democratic Party Is Strong
Sharing Your Work With Others in The Hopium Community (Fun, Exciting and Inspiring)
Our Muscular Grassroots And Our Need To Get Louder and Become Info Warriors (short video)
Getting to 55 and The Importance of The Youth Vote
Smoothing the On-Ramp To Democracy: Voter Registration As A Staple of American High Schools - By Laura Brill
Interview with Harvard’s John Della Volpe on The Youth Vote
Interview with the Civics Center Laura Brill and Expanding Youth Voter Registration
Republicans Are Saddled With Trump, MAGA, Dobbs and Treason
Hopium Chronicles Basics
What I Mean By Hopium (Audio)
With Democrats Things Get Better - August, 2023
Finally, here’s how Ron Brownstein of CNN and The Atlantic wrote about this political moment and our emerging opportunity:
Simon Rosenberg, the long-time Democratic strategist who was proven right as the most prominent public skeptic of the “red wave” theory in 2022, argues that Trump, in particular, is unlikely to match his 47% of the vote from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again. “We are starting at a place where it is far more likely in my mind that he gets to 45% than he gets to 49%,” Rosenberg said. “And if he gets to 45%, we have the opportunity to get up to 55%. The key for Democrats is we have to imagine growing and expanding our coalition for it to happen.”
Beyond the personal doubts about Trump among voters outside the GOP coalition, Democrats such as Rosenberg and Anzalone see several other factors that give Biden a chance to widen his winning margin from the last election. Perhaps the most important of those are the slowdown in inflation, continued strength of the job market, and signs of accelerating recovery in the stock market – all of which are already stirring some gains in consumer confidence. Democrats are encouraged as well by recent declines in the number of undocumented immigrants attempting to cross the Southern border and the crime rate in big cities – two issues on which polls show substantial disappointment in Biden’s performance.
Another change since 2020 is the broad public backlash, especially in Democratic-leaning and swing states, against the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion, which Trump has directly claimed credit for engineering through his nominations to the court. Finally, compared to 2020, the electorate in 2024 will likely include significantly more young people in Generation Z, a group that is preponderantly supporting Democrats, and fewer Whites without a college degree, now the GOP’s best group.
All of these factors, Rosenberg said, create “an opportunity” for Democrats to amass a bigger majority next year than most consider possible. But to get there, he argues, the party will need to think bigger, particularly in its efforts to mobilize younger voters aging into the electorate. “It’s a man on the moon kind of mindset,” Rosenberg said. “We have to want to go there to get there. We have to build a strategy to take away political real estate from the Republicans because they are giving us the opportunity to take it away from them.”
Many Republican strategists privately agree that the combined effect of the January 6 insurrection and the court’s abortion decision will make it difficult for Trump to expand his support from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again.
Keep working hard all - Simon
Two things:
I listened to the interview with Reed Galen - everyone should listen to this. It is positive and realistic. If we just focus on the Trump news and what appears to be panic in the Democratic ranks, we are not going to have the energy we need for 2024. What I got out of this podcast that rings true from my experience .....
Simon said that our superpower is the millions out there working everyday. That is my experience. It is the untold story out there. It is the story of millions out there who immediately get on the story such as the one brewing in Wisconsin over Judge Janet - in a heartbeat - the organizing starts all over the country. It is the keyboard warriors who gear up for Virginia (who have been for months) with phones, postcards, markers and stamps to GOTV. It is the same ones who have done so for Special Elections in PA, WI and you name it. That is our superpower.
No we are not in the streets and nor should we be. I'm not confident it is safe to be and frankly - it isn't effective - this is the work that matters - the work that results in getting citizens to the ballot box.
Also, I am enraged to hear that the poll that everyone has been talking about with the terrible #s had 60% self-identified R's. Are you kidding me? Where is that in the reporting? It's out there - but there isn't enough of it.
Also, I just listened to Michael Moore's Self Help for Worried LIberals on his Substack. It's great!
Just remember these two things as we enter the the end of the legislative year and begin the election year:
1) The Republicans are going to get increasingly worse/crazy/egregious/brazen the closer we get to the election because nothing else has worked for them, and we need to see it as a sign of OUR success.....they only retreat further into the abyss of lunacy because they are losing and becoming increasingly desperate.....the Confederates did the same thing after we hit tipping points in the Civil War. Yes, it's when they are the most dangerous, but it's also when they become the most defeatable.
2) Where we do the work, we win. Period. End of Story. Look at the scoreboard. Every victory we've notched up since Dobbs has been in the environment of low Biden Approval ratings, higher than ideal inflation, collective PTSD from COVID and the whole ordeal of the 2020 election and its aftermath, and the presence of the Russian invasion into Ukraine. And guess what.....WE. KEEP. WINNING. The crazier they act, the more the drive away winnable votes....the more we quietly work, the more we build a firewall with our base and an infrastructure to welcome those winnable votes into our safe tent of normalcy....even if they don't join us with joy and enthusiasm, they still join us and their votes count the same.
***Note On Approval Rating***
I believe President Biden's low approval rating is the result of a bunch of people in OUR own voting coalition who are disgusted with politics in general (and who can blame them), and feel disappointed that getting rid of Trump didn't magically solve every problem in the world......but they sure as shit don't think that the answer going forward is to give Trump another go at it.....too much is being made of the approval rating because cable pundits and Op/Ed columnists have to fill their time talking about something.
We got this peeps.....may not be a sexy news story, just like "Normal Experienced President Implements Effective Policy Quietly Solving Big Problem Public Doesn't Fully Understand" doesn't grab the headlines very often.......so don't expect the media to talk about it until we shock the hell out of them in November of 2024 with the outcome we produce.....but "We. Got. This."