45 Comments
User's avatar
Henry Lichstein's avatar

Start writing Project 2029!

Moishe Swift's avatar

RE: Yale University Poll...

GenX, what is going on with y'all?

Sincerely,

An Elder Millennial.

(EDIT: FWIW, this is obviously not aimed at you, fellow Hopiumers!)

Grant Gerke's avatar

Many of them couldn't shake off the boomer bosses and dipshits in their life. too much influence. Many are not doing well in the 50s.

Voted Dem my whole life and

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

I'm early Gen X, never wavered. Been a prog Dem my whole life.

Steve's avatar
5hEdited

I was trying to make sense of this too, so I read the survey notes at the link posted by Simon and found this:

“Since the fall 2025 Yale Youth Poll, President Trump’s approval has decreased, particularly among young voters. In fact, Trump’s net approval has fallen among both men and women of every age bucket under 35 years old. Interestingly, women ages 34-44 turned against Trump by the largest margin (28 points), while men in that age group actually swung more in favor of Trump than any other gender-age group (13 points). Note that the fall and spring samples are slightly different and that these are relatively narrow crosstabs, so the specific numbers should be taken with a grain of salt; nonetheless, some of these shifts were large enough to warrant mention.”

Patrick's avatar

I think it is Reagan. My generation came of age with Reagan as president. He is the most overrated president possibly ever, but he had a tremendous political impact that reshaped things in a way that's been hard to recover from. I've always known my generation was the most politically problematic. I could never stand Reagan myself, and think many of our problems trace back there and to Newt Gingrich.

Simon Rosenberg's avatar

A lot has to do with Reagan. Young people in college and high school during his tenure have been the most GOP part of the electorate since the 1980s. We may be seeing an echo of that with young men 18-22 with Trump. I have boys 25 and 23 and I can tell you that Trump has been a major part of their lives. ]

Patrick's avatar

We should be reminding young men that age that Trump hasn't taken the draft off of the table, and now it is not front-of-mind since selective service happens automatically. I remember going in to register, and it has an impact. My son is 21. I don't think a draft is likely. But I think about it and it isn't a pleasant thought.

Fisher's avatar

i've got a daughter that age who dates those guys...they voted for trump. give me strength. one had the nerve to tell her he could convert me in 15 minutes....i said he is even dumber than he sounds.....my son did the right thing. good news is most of these guys she knows in nj voted for the lady for governor....as for reagan, joe trippi this morning iirc was saying at least reagan gave people a sense of something good for america....no one could say that about trump. trippi worked for the mondale campaign. i still remember "where's the beef"? i sat at rutgers in the fall of 84 in a class reading moby dick, and one guy just looked at me and said, this is gonna be like 72 isn't it? it was even worse. but we had not yet lost the union jobs and pensions yet....no one saw the 401k coming, or the rise of milton friedman, a rutgers grad himself....the russian trawlers had recently been expelled from out waters, the local fisheries boomed as a result, and it was hard to sit in class on a nice autumn day when the fish were biting....now, every one of those fisheries has collapsed. but it is a nice day in the nyc area today, and we are eyeing the weather, and there are striped bass to be found, the one species you could not find back then....and we need a break from the madness.

Ted N's avatar

My children aren’t yet dating age, but if one of them told me that I’d say “that idiot is not welcome in my house”….

Ted N's avatar

Thanks for the answer here, Simon. I wanted to ask this question too. It’s such a stark divide between adjacent groups, seems like it could be a sampling error? Just hard to believe….

Tom Thumb's avatar

Fun Fact: I asked Gemini to determine what the House and Senate would look like if we beat the Repos as badly as Magyar beat Orban (treating the percentage of seats won by those two like voting percentages, even though the beatdown in *votes* Magyar administered was almost certainly worse than the breakdown by seats, given the next-level, put-TX-to-shame gerrymandering Orban had in place).

The answer?

We win the House by somewhere between 315-120 and 350-85

We win the Senate by between 60-40 and 70-30.

A filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, a veto-proof majority in the House, and probably the Senate, too, especially if the size of the wipeout finally causes some Repos to start fearing their constituents more than Trump.

A pipe dream? Maybe, but Trump's approval rating is getting close to Orban's vote percentage in some credible independent polls, and nearly every Repo can easily be positioned as his conjoined servant.

A decent North Star in any case, right? The kind that, per Simon, you don't get to reach up and touch unless you try for it?

Kate O'Shea's avatar

May it be so!!!

…and of course we have to work to make it so, but that’s what we do here :)

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

Them's some FDR numbers right there. I like it!

Tom Thumb's avatar

Is it time to make another connection between voting and military service? As we all know, the argument that got 18 year olds the vote was "old enough to die [for your country] old enough to vote."

A few days ago, Kegseth announced that in December of this year, DOD is going to start automatically registering eligible young men for the draft. Which naturally raises a question similar to the one that sold the country on the 26th: if the government can automatically register Americans for military service, why can't & shouldn't it automatically register people to vote?

If this election is like every other one, no matter how good the turnout is, some wisea** (like me) will put together a list comparing our turnout with that of other countries (spoiler alert: we'll rank somewhere between 130th and 170th). But if they're honest, not just cynical, they'll also show where we rank if only registered voters are included (spoiler alert: "where we belong").

And there will be no need to similarly adjust the turnouts of other countries out of fairness, because in full (some would say real) democracies everyone is either automatically registered or the government has gone to great lengths (door to door to door to door...) to make sure they are. According to Harvard, only three countries make getting--and staying--registered harder than we do, the Voting Killer Bs: Bahamas, Burundi, and Belize.

Could Kegseth be opening Pandora's Box in an alternative universe? Could we make it so?

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

Talk to the hand. This longtime League of Women Voters vol remembers Motor Voter. It's like taxes - they already know who you are and what you earned. They can register your a$$. Top 10 priority for the next Dem prez.

Kate O'Shea's avatar

I’ve started getting emails from an organization called Disrupt that claims to be a progressive youth-oriented alternative to Turning Point USA. Every email is alerting readers about the draft. My sainted mother always said that there would be many fewer and shorter wars if the draft was re-instated. And, of course, it would not be at all fair (or legal) if only young men were drafted. Dr. Annie Andrews, who is running against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, has a great ad about our sons and daughters being sent to trumps war. Somehow I don’t think that would go well for the Republicans.

Susan Dieterlen's avatar

Yes, and I'm far from the only one who's thought that mandatory national service (not just military) is one way to re-knit our society back together long term. Reinstating draft registration makes a great bridge to that. Huh.

Fisher's avatar

well i hear that a lot, but to me, a free society is just that; free. you should not have to give over years of your life in free labor to uncle sam. its hard enough these days to prepare for a career, even in the trades, and time lost is time lost. i know plenty of guys who served and some were in vietnam, and it did not make them any more accepting of immigrants or nonwhites. i'd rather leave it as is. and, some people with means will always get out of it.

Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

Thanks, Simon!

Timothy Snyder and others have been pointing out that the campaign against Orban in Hungary focused on tying corruption to Hungary's economic woes. I've long believed that Dems could win a lot of younger and working class voters by doing more of the same. It's not something we Dems like to focus on, but voting against an "enemy" often motivates a lot of voters. Republicans use that by presenting some "other" group -- immigrants, uppity women, African Americans, LGBTQ people, "snotty liberal elites," etc. -- to get voters to vote against. We don't need to do that. We can point to the corrupt elites and billionaires and tie their corruption to an economy that denies medical care, jobs, day care, etc. to everyday Americans. It has the advantage of being true.

I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say NO money for ICE or war and that the president is not in touch with reality and needs to be removed. I'm finishing up my postcards for NC and casting about for a new campaign to write for.

KBH's avatar

Amen! Corruption and economic woes absolutely are tied together. Corruption leads to oligarchy, which leads to more corruption. James Talarico (and others) are correct when they say the divide in our country is not left/right, it's top/down. And the enormous transfers of wealth to the top super billionaires (I'm not even talking wealthy people, here, I'm talking uber-wealthy) from the rest of us who pay our legitimate taxes and don't have the time or money to take advantage of all the wealthy loopholes is a huge part of the corruption supported by Rs and their policies.

Howard Park's avatar

Good news from Missouri, even here! There were several positive signs for our side in municipal elections in MO. All of the much diminished ranks of book burning Mom's for Liberty School Board types have now been banished even beyond the most distant St. Louis ex-urb. A tax freeze lost in "swing" St. Charles Co. Voters voted 85-15 AGAINST a tax repeal in St. Louis. Candidate recruitment is way up for Democrats. There are no MO US Senate or Gov races in 2026 but we are on track to make solid gains in the legislature.

Madam Geoffrin's avatar

Honestly, winning at the state level in MO is probably more important now. Good luck!

Howard Park's avatar

In 2026 only the State Auditor office is on the ballot in Missouri. We could pick up a Congressional seat in MO-2. The major statewide vote will be to reverse GOP gerrymandering.

KBH's avatar

Great report, Howard, thanks for the uplifting news! Keep it going, MO!

Rachel Poliner's avatar

That is a great update - thanks! So glad to see Moms for Liberty ousted and progress with local policy and building the bench.

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

Listening in on a Harvard event that gathers U.S. mayors for panels on current issues. Postcards for VA sent, will try to make some calls but Thu is always a hectic day. It's warm and sunny today here in NJ and we are enjoying the quiet before the summer folks arrive. :)

Keep going!

Fisher's avatar

i'm not waiting til summer...the fish are biting right now.

karenwestcoast's avatar

I sincerely hope the big tent Democrat Party understands that the success of the people in Hungary was CENTRIST in nature. It was not a wish list of progressive policies at the federal level. Affordability, addressing corruption and restoring democracy is paramount to winning.

ConnieW's avatar

It must include making the rich pay more taxes.

John Payne's avatar

That IMF report is sobering. Stunning that one man can do so much damage. The hardest hit to the poorest nations (already hit by USAID cuts). And of course, of course, Russia is the biggest winner in all this. That’s probably one of the few impacts he was aware of.

It’s motivating though. Next battle is in Virginia. The only way out is through.

P.s. Thanks Simon for including my comment! An honor!

Tom Thumb's avatar

Imnsho, it was a great comment, John, and game knows game :)

David E Kolva, MD's avatar

Reposting this from last night: Indivisible commissioned a survey about the NO KINGS 3 protest rally. This is the first high quality national survey (3000 Registered voters) that I have seen on this subject. It provides good support for those of us that feel that visibility activities are very helpful in swaying public opinions: https://indivisible.org/news/national-survey-on-no-kings-3-protests/?akid

There is a tab to access the survey crosstabs for the data nerds.

The wave is growing every day!

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

Thanks, had not seen that. Great data points in there!

Patrick's avatar
5hEdited

Looking forward to phone banking Thursday and our weekly gathering tomorrow.

We should be able to link "corruption", "democracy", "inflation", and "affordability", and "health care", etc, into one narrative. People hate corruption. The corruption is linked to the decline in democracy, and the lack of the government providing for its citizens. We need to do a better job of linking these things together in a narrative. It's just there to be used, it just requires some people with the political skill. Shouldn't be talking about "drug prices" or "affordability" without touching on "corruption" and "democracy".

Either people can have their lives guided by a government that responds to the voters, or they can be ruled by an oligarchy of corrupt, crony capitalists. Republicans are choosing the latter right now.

The inflation numbers are just awful. It is stunning that ~31 approve of his handling of inflation. Not only is inflation terrible, but you can directly connect cause and effect, and it is by choice. Biden's inflation was bad, but it was largely driven by things outside his control during COVID recovery.

I guess approval of the handling of the Vietnam War was in the high 20's while we were evacuating people from the roof of the embassy in Saigon. So what are you going to do?

I don't understand how GenX is favoring Republicans more than Democrats now compared to Fall 2025. I think it is the influence of having come of age with Reagan and the end of the Cold War. And the whole Gingrich thing. But what are people looking at that makes them approve of the GOP more now than in Fall 2025?

Thankfully, it doesn't appear to be across the board, where things are moving our direction. I'd rather get more younger voters than older voters. We've got to lock in the younger voters so we have them for decades -- not just because the GOP messed up so badly.

PianoManSteve's avatar

I just keep wondering how far below the surface of the water. The bow of the ship has to get before we see more Republicans jump off the damn thing. This is all just so unbelievable… I remember thinking during Trump‘s first term that I was astounded by how nostalgic I was for the George W. Bush years. Right now I can’t believe how fucking nostalgic I have become for the Trump 1.0 years. Pure insanity… on the upside, a longtime friend of mine confided in me that he will no longer vote Republican going forward. And this was a pretty big turnaround for him… Served as a congressional staffer under a member of the house, and has held local elected Office… And who I’m sure has always Harvard ambitions of running for higher Office… But he can’t even consider pursuing them with the party being the way it is right now. There is movement down here on the ground… But holy shit is it frustrating how long it’s taken, and how bad these people have needed it to get before they could make an adjustment

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

Confirmation bias, media bubbles, cult behavior, media consolidation, etc. etc. - ultimately, until it hits them where it hurts, many just won't check in.

Faith Wilson's avatar

Great news from Meidas Touch! The newly elected Magyar is jumping right into action:

"Hungary is taking action against CPAC — the Conservative Political Action Conference, a U.S.-based gathering closely tied to Donald Trump and the modern Republican Party’s global alliances.

New Prime Minister Péter Magyar announced the Hungarian government will no longer use taxpayer money to fund CPAC or related institutions, calling the prior practice “a crime.”

CPAC has become a key hub for right-wing leaders from around the world, often aligned with Trump-style politics and efforts to build a broader global conservative movement. Under Viktor Orbán, Hungary even hosted CPAC events backed by state resources.

Magyar is now drawing a clear line: public funds should not be used to bankroll partisan political operations. He’s calling for an investigation into how taxpayer money was spent — and whether laws were broken.

Emily H's avatar

We’re in the thick of the Swalwell mess here…. Just to add to the general whiplash and craziness of MAGA blasphemy and PTSD from veiled threats of nuclear holocaust just one week ago. Last night I attended a town hall for one of the ELEVEN candidates for California’s insurance commissioner. Huge huge huge in our wildfire prone western face of the Sierra Nevada! Thursday my two county district supervisor candidates are slated to duke it out in the cafeteria of our elementary school. There is much commotion over who will moderate the event. I have offered…

Candace's avatar

Despite the Orban defeat (lovely as it was) life in the USA remains surreal. Here and there, a string of "normal news, perhaps with a dash of optimism," inevitably interrupted by some "breaking news craziness" like the Doctor Jesus post or a Melania press conference or another idiotic press gaggle on Air Force One. Somehow, though (and it's hard) I'm starting to feel like we're turning some corners. HOWEVER - if I even see ground being broken (please tell me this hasn't happened yet) for the 250-foot ARCH monstrosity Trump wants built in his honor, I will unravel. This stupid idea needs to be COMPLETELY OFF THE TABLE!

Laura Havranek's avatar

Well Simon all costs are up, looking at war costs and consumer prices rising globally. The only great thing is trump’s falling popularity. But MAGA GOP in total denial and ignorance of consumer voters spells disaster for them and possible changes in Congress by years’ end. But our national security seems uncertain daily. When will it end?