My July 2023 Political Briefing - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them

Friends, here’s a recording of my monthly political discussion from Tuesday, July 25th. We had a good crowd and a lively Q & A.

A reminder that we are hosting David Pepper on Thursday at 1pm EST to talk Ohio and his new book, Saving Democracy. RSVP here. Important stuff - hope you will come watch live or catch it when you can.

For those who want to drill down a bit more on what we discussed last night, I offer up the following links:

• On 2022 having two elections, a bluer election inside the battleground, a redder one outside

• The strong 2022 Democratic performance has carried over into 2023

• Why I think we need to go big in 2024, and strive to get to 55

• Democrats are having a good summer. Republicans are having a bad summer and its about to get a lot worse.

• Biden’s poll numbers are improving

• Despite some recent media accounts, there was no red wave in 2022

• On DeSantis’ Florida experiment being a big problem for Republicans across the country

Grassroots Activism - Things You Can Do

• A short video on the power of the Democratic grassroots today

• Not obeying in advance

• Getting louder and becoming an information warrior for democracy

• Selling Biden’s economic success

• Why we need to launch a national youth voter registration drive

• Laura Brill’s great work trying to register every high schooler in America

• Getting involved in Ohio, Virginia and Florida

Large Sample, Independent Media Polls In July, Biden-Trump (via 538)

• Monmouth 47-40

• Quinnipiac 49-44

• YouGov/Yahoo 47-43

• Morning Consult 43-41

• Ipsos/Reuters 37-35

• YouGov/Economist 42-42 (Trump had a 4 pt lead here in June)

Averaging these together gives Biden a 3.5 pt lead. A late June high-quality NBC News poll had Biden up 4, and a new AARP poll of battleground House districts has Biden up 4, 47-43. Sure feels like a 3-4 point lead now for Biden - good news all around.

Keep working hard all - Simon