Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
New Data On Workers Doing Well Under Biden, Dems Doing Well w/Youth and Hispanics in 2022, GOP Brand In The Toilet
Friends, sharing three new reports that I thought you would find of interest:
New Navigator Poll Shows GOP House Incumbents Struggling In The Battleground - Navigator released another traunch of data from their new battleground poll series, and it confirms what we’ve seen in other data - voters are not happy with the new House Majority. This chart sums up their findings well:
Over the past few weeks I’ve been writing about how dangerous this debt ceiling fight was for Republicans. They went into this battle with historically low approval ratings, and were risking the only thing that was working for them - their standing on the economy. This new Navigator data helps provide an explanation for why McCarthy accepted far less than he wanted, and why Rs are falling in line now - their brand is in bad shape, and they were not winning the debate with Biden. They had to take a deal, or their chance of keeping the House, already not great, was going to get far far harder.
The shockingly low approval of Congressional Republicans right now is consistent with the very strong performance Dems have had in CO, FL, PA, WI in recent weeks. The Republican project is collectively very ugly right now, and voters are seeing it.
New Catalist Report On The 2022 Election Is Out, and It Has Good News About Young and Hispanic Voters - The Democratic data warehouse Catalist has released its big report on the 2022 election. I am still plowing through it but three initial things stood out: 1) it confirms our “two elections” take on the election 2) Dems appeared to have gained ground with Hispanic voters last year 3) our performance with young people was extraordinary:
Gen Z and Millennial voters had exceptional levels of turnout, with young voters in heavily contested states exceeding their 2018 turnout by 6% among those who were eligible in both elections.1 Further, 65% of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 supported Democrats, cementing their role as a key part of a winning coalition for the party. While young voters were historically evenly split between the parties, they are increasingly voting for Democrats. Many young voters who showed up in 2018 and 2020 to elect Democrats continued to do the same in 2022.
This data is further confirmation of the opportunity Dems have with young people in 2024, and why we should be striving to Get to 55.
More Data Showing Lowest Paid Workers Have Done Well Under Biden - In a new Politico story, “Historic Gains: Low-Income Workers Scored In The COVID Economy,” Victoria Guida writes (h/t to Bill McClain):
For the past three years, low-income workers have made historic gains in wages even after inflation, reversing the trend of advances for upper-income workers and stagnating pay for laborers that dominated the previous four decades, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from the U.S. Labor Department.
The gains were the product of a series of dramatic changes in the structure of the labor market and government policies to aid the economy during the pandemic. Fueled by the resulting worker shortage, for example, one of the lowest tiers of earners — people making an average of $12.50 per hour nationally — saw their pay grow nearly 6 percent from 2020 to 2022, even after factoring in inflation. That’s significantly bigger than what low-wage workers got during the entire administration of President Barack Obama, following the Great Recession.
Yes, we need a new way to poll and talk about the American economy. Far more is going right than wrong, and we need to work together to tell that story. I send along the CNN Zakaria report from this weekend again, below. It is must see TV, and a deeply powerful reminder that Joe Biden has been a good President and that America and the world are better off due to his able leadership.
Keep working hard all - Simon