I just read G. Elliot Morris’ “Strength in Numbers” this morning and he articulated one of my takes on the 2024 election - it was so close that any factor could be pointed at as the “reason” for Kamala’s loss, since it came down to 110,000 votes in three states at the margin. “Overdetermined” is the term, and so many issues and campaign tactics/strategies fit the “if only they did (fill in my pet issue)” framing that it is not possible to make strong inferences. “Nobody’s wrong if everybody’s right” with apologies to Buffalo Springfield. More ammo for the circular firing squad…….
I am going to write about this and his other column that has been getting attention in the coming days. While I agree with him that this was a close, margin of error race that easily could have bounced our way I don't not agree that there are not lessons to be learned from what went wrong. You can learn lessons from mistakes even when you win.
There definitely are lessons to learn, I totally agree. Avoiding the tendency to attribute single causes (my cause!) to inherently multivariate problems is a good one to learn.
I agree with this. I do however, wince when people profess Kamala herself was one of the lessons to be learned. I will never abandon my instincts that she was a great candidate and would be again!
That's what I always think. There is an assumption that you only did right when you win, and that you only made mistakes when you lose. Certain factors, like inflation, were out of Harris' control. It made the race harder to win. But that doesn't mean that there weren't mistakes made you can learn from.
Simon- thanks for your efforts to make sure all of us "in the family" understand how mistakes work and how we have to face and learn from then, and how we have to NEVER hide from our own shadows, and how mistakes will always happen, and 20-20 hindsight doesn't mean we are failures and losers, let's keep going especially right now! As my little granddaughters like to say "Nana! A mistake is just something that makes you learn something; it's not BAD"!
Agree. If we had done a little more soul-searching in the past, for example, we might have realized sooner that outsourcing our voter registration and other important efforts was a mistake. Ditto about letting party structures atrophy and narrowing too much our focus on a small number of presidential swing states. So, we can and should always learn from the past even as we recognize that each election is different--different circumstances, issues, candidates--so that we can't assume that what we think we've learned from the past will necessarily translate to the next election cycle. It has to be a constant, ongoing, clear-eyed analysis as events alter the landscape.
I love these numbers-nerdy data-packed posts. We’re slogging through the last four Get Out The Vote days before the close of the California jungle primaries on June 2. I brought my banjo to a local rally yesterday. I just upped my monthly contributions to the three local candidates whom I hope and believe will advance to the general election while we wait to see who will squeak into the governor’s race. I am religiously remembering to take my blood pressure meds.
I start today still in some shock over a personal tragedy yesterday. My cousin Joel, 48 years old, was just five months younger than me….Navy vet, father of five, highly skilled diesel service mechanic for heavy equipment, was in a traffic accident and died on the scene.
Moments like this make you think a lot about what I call the micro-world and the macro-world. In the micro-world, his smaller immediate sphere of influence, we will all feel a void… We will all try to find our place in the village that helps see his family through. My aunt and uncle will have to spend their remaining years, however many they have, with this crippling grief of losing their youngest born. Holidays will be less than they could be, and daily life will be forever changed to varying degrees depending on how often one interacted with him.
And then I think of the big world, the macro-world. The struggles that his clients, largely farmers, were going through needlessly because of these idiotic tariffs and the wholesale destruction of our relationships with other countries. Not to mention the fact that they’re not being done any favors by continuing to pretend like climate change doesn’t exist… The sooner we all accept it and start adapting, the better… Because major adjustments to how we grow food and produce our food supply are going to be necessary. And mostly, I just think about what a cynical time we’re living through and how this is the backdrop his children will have for their final memories of him.
I’m gonna miss Joel, and it’s gonna be bittersweet to watch his kids grow up without him… But not having children of my own, they are now going to be additional fuel for me to help build a better world. They deserved better out of this life than what they just got handed yesterday… And they damn sure deserve better than what America has collectively given them in their youth.
RIP Joel….. We will all continue to love you until we can join you on the other side ❤️🩹❤️🩹❤️🩹
Oh Lord! This is really tough! Big light to Joel as he transitions. May his memory be a blessing. And may you and your family, and his family, take the time it takes to grieve and be in your personal lives for a while. It is brave of you to share this tragedy here with all of us. Thank you for letting us know.
steve i am so sorry and i posted my story about traffic fatalities on nj 7's highway before i read this. i shall take it down out of respect. my condolences.
Steve - I am so, so sorry to hear this and thank you for sharing it with us here. Death is so final and awful and unexpected death such a shock. Hug those children and parents tight and know that we grieve the loss of your cousin. <3
My condolences to you & your family. Having lost my brother in a traffic accident years ago, I feel your pain of sudden loss and wish you all strength & love in the days & years ahead. He will always be in your hearts.
My husband died at 49, and our three kids were all still school aged. Their aunts and uncles have been a tremendous support to me and to them, and I will be forever grateful for the care and guidance they have given to the kids. Don't doubt that you can play a huge role in showing those kids that there can be thriving on the other side of tragedy.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say that Trump is not in touch with reality and must be removed from office. I'm writing postcards to Ohio voters.
I donated $10 one time to Bennett. She is fabulous as a candidate. I will consider donating more later on. As for Kean, I wish him well with his health. Not showing up and not voting, however, would be a model I wish other Republicans would adopt.
I attended the Jolly townhall last night. He is also a great candidate who is a very good stump speaker. I wish they did more at the events to engage volunteers right there. However, I signed up for a phone bank event tomorrow, which was forwarded to me by one of his campaign workers. The campaign posted pictures of the event on his substack. In one, you can just barely see the back of my head (I won't say which one belongs to me but there's not a lot of hair on it).
I feel like the Vindman campaign isn't visible enough. Jolly is working really hard but I don't see Vindman out there as much (at least that is my perception... they don't reach out as much either). I'm hoping that changes. I also wonder, based on what I saw at the Jolly campaign, if they aren't keeping Vindman at arms length a bit because Vindman might activate Trump voters more than other candidates.
Political control over research, especially by Christian Nationalist ideologues, is frightening given their willful ignorance. Thanks for keeping the War on Science as one of the key issues at Hopium!
Called senators today asking for support for Ukraine, coming down hard on the ICE abuses in detention centers right now (horrific!!), and once again telling them that DT is not fit for office and must be removed. (I'm a bit more colorful in my language). Still packing boxes and getting ready for the first phase of our move.
Donated a bit to Rebecca Bennett through the Hopium link. The GOP sleazeballs meddling in primaries are on a losing streak and I’d love to keep it going
Perhaps I missed it, and apologies if so, but where is the process the Hopium Community uses to determine when to endorse a candidate in a primary election? Do paid subscribers, particularly those from the state and/or district have an opportunity to weigh in? I think this is important. I am not objecting to the two primary race candidates we have been asked to support recently, but I do feel there needs to be transparency, and a method for those with knowledge about a specific race to be able to share our information and perspectives before an endorsement is made in a primary race.
I make all the decisions. People weigh in here and to me privately with their recommendations daily. No one is obligated to follow the recommendations I make here, nor is a general fund applied to candidates. Everything is optional, a la carte. I have been clear that these illicit GOP campaigns would bring a change in approach. That we generally don't get involved in primaries because there are so many other races to work on. But in the last few weeks we've made exceptions to that general rule because of this new illicit campaign Republicans have launched, and which Will Van Nuys briefed us on last Friday.
I want to be very clear that endorsing in primaries is done all the time in our family - labor, Emily's Lists, Vote Vets, Bernie, etc. It is a common, every day thing. This new emerging world view that it is ok for some members of our family to endorse in a primary and not others seems unsustainable to me.
I have been aware of Republicans and Republican-backed PACs putting money into democratic primaries to influence which of our candidates make it to the general election, even before this issue had been discussed in our community. I agree this something we should work to oppose. And I listened to the interview with Will Van Nuys the day you posted it. I’m not asking my question because of lack of understanding or lack of deep concern. It is actually sparked directly from that briefing with Van Nuys followed by the statement in your May 27 essay: “Similar Republican efforts to knock out our strongest primary candidates in districts we can win this November have been launched in CA-22 against Jasmeet Bains and NJ-7 against Rebecca Bennett in states that have primaries next week.”
Of course everything is voluntary; I believe we all understand that. And I am glad to know that recommendations from the Hopium Community carry weight, which is all I’m really asking. I am also glad that we/you have not decided to endorse Jasmeet Bains in her primary contest against Professor Randy Villegas. As a proud member of the Hopium Community, a community that I promote to others in my network, I would have been disappointed had that happened. The DCCC may believe that Bains is the stronger candidate but that opinion is not shared by Democrats who have been working to flip CA-22.
Central Valley Matters endorsed Randy Villegas over Jasmeet Bains, and have had local canvassers in the district throughout this primary. They are a coalition of over 40 California volunteer groups that funds civic engagement in the Central Valley through carefully vetted grassroots organizations based in CA’s CD 22: Community Water Center Action Fund, Dolores Huerta Action Fund, Poder Latinx, plus Delano Guardians, Loud for Tomorrow & Valley Voices.
The local Indivisible chapters endorsed Villegas; which led to National Indivisible’s endorsement of Villegas. As reported by Cal Matters (https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/05/central-valley-congress-dccc/), the local Dem parties in Kern County, in Tulare, Fresno, and Kings counties — all four of them — also endorsed Villegas. All of this before the DCCC decided to endorse Bains, who by the way was the only Democrat in the CA Assembly to vote no on Prop 50. And when Villegas asked the DCCC if they talked to anyone in the district before making their endorsement, the answer was No.
So I have decided to not endorse Bains due the push back from many here in the community and my respect for all your work. But I think it is important to note that both the NRCC and the DCCC who have access to polling and oppo research have BOTH determined that Bains is the better general election candidate. They only have one criteria for determining this - who is most likely to win. What criteria did all these local groups use? They all believe he was more likely to win the general based on what criteria?
The reason this matters is that we are in a national emergency right now and we must simply must every seat we can, and we now have a situation where the two most experienced organizations in the country in electing people to the US House both believe that Bains is the stronger candidate. Rather than denigrating her perhaps there should have been more effort to understand why both national party committees feel the same about this race.
Two final points:
- I want to acknowledge the organization from Villegas world as your post is word for word the same in places as what others have posted here this week.
- I note that local party groups have endorsed Villegas which of course means that the coalition behind Villegas believes party endorsements in primaries are OK.
Let's hope that whatever happens on Tuesday leads us to finally flipping this seat after many years of trying - Simon
Happy to donate a little money to Rebecca Bennett. We need her!
Great news this morning from Democracy Forward:
"It was just yesterday that we filed to block any funds being paid out from Donald Trump’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund” – aka, the “slush fund.”
Well, it didn’t even take 24 hours – in fact, barely more than 12 – for a federal court to take action in our case: The Trump-Vance administration is barred from taking any more action on their slush fund.
That means Trump and his allies can’t take any further action related to the fund, including transferring money to it, considering submitted claims, or disbursing taxpayer dollars. The next step is our hearing planned for June 12th.
This is a huge win for the American people and taxpayers across the country, especially because there had already been a filing to request nearly $3 million from that fund. Now, a federal court has put the brakes on everything – and that’s because of your support of this work."
To Marc Elias, Skye Perryman and so many other smart, brave and bold law firms helping us every day to keep our democracy. - Thank you!
You do not need to convince me about how badly Trump has failed.
I can see it in an almost $5.00/gal. unleaded gas prices in Ohio.
I can see it in the $150/30 day supply [after manufacturer discount/coupon] of my diabetes medication (Janumet). I had to change it to a much cheaper alternative, which is thankfully still very effective in controlling my blood sugar level.
I can see it in everyday grocery prices rising slowly but surely. As long as Trump is in the WH, I will likely have to continue checking weekly grocery ads and find paper/digital coupons for my and my kids' daily needs.
I will say it again: you do not need to convince me about how badly Trump has screwed us over.
I should also state that, while high drug prices may not have been entirely Trump's doing, he has not done much to help,. If anything, he may have made it worse.
Following up on Simon's point (Wed night) about the "weak vs strong" argument and how it is metriculating through the pro-democracy coalition and DC. In this example, it is clean energy and how tactics could change via a strong & powerful approach.
"Chip Roy was the biggest enemy for solar in Congress last year. There has to be a consuquence to that. We're defnitely going to tell a story the next time someone votes against the solar industry, there's a lot of money that could come after them in the next primary or next election.
And more below Stephen Lacey:
"Chip Roy lost his bid for Texas attorney general last night. He was one of the solar industry's biggest opponents in Congress. And a group of clean energy investors decided there had to be a consequence.
They ran hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of attack ads calling him "not MAGA enough." The ads never mentioned clean energy once. They forced Roy into a runoff, which he lost yesterday.
I recently sat down with one of the lead donors to the campaign: Chris Larsen, the billionaire co-founder of Ripple, who is now investing heavily in climate.
Chris was one of the lead investors in crypto's Fairshake campaign that turned the industry from a regulatory target into one of the most feared political forces in Washington. It spent nearly half of all corporate political dollars in the 2024 cycle and won over 95% of the races it engaged in.
He thinks clean energy can do the same thing. And he does not mince words about what that requires: "This is political warfare. You talk about what works. You talk about what's going to take out that person."
I also sat down with his co-founder at the Clean Break Fund: Mike Brune, the longest-serving executive director of the Sierra Club.
"The next time someone votes against the solar industry, there's a lot of money that could come after them in the next primary or the next election," Brune said.
The clean energy industry has been historically focused on making the affirmative case by highlighting economic benefits, building coalitions, and telling a positive story. But Chris and Mike think that the industry needs to get more serious about delivering political consequences.
"The worst thing you want in a political fight is for your opponents to think you're weak," Chris told the room.
There's still a massive spending gap between renewables and fossil fuels. In 2024, the entire renewable energy industry donated $2.5 million to political campaigns. Oil and gas donated $75 million just to elect Trump.
That gap won't close quickly, but it's the first sign that the industry is serious about taking the gloves off.
I live next door to NJ-7, have dear friends who live there and are politically active. Kean Jr. ain’t his father - a revered former governor. Rumors are flying, with rehab leading the pack. I don’t wish ill health on anyone, but I won’t be sorry to see Junior lose.
I have seen reports of federal and NJ bills being introduced to tax any 1.776 slush fund payments at 100%. California has already done so. Now that’s the type of fight I like to see!!!
I just read G. Elliot Morris’ “Strength in Numbers” this morning and he articulated one of my takes on the 2024 election - it was so close that any factor could be pointed at as the “reason” for Kamala’s loss, since it came down to 110,000 votes in three states at the margin. “Overdetermined” is the term, and so many issues and campaign tactics/strategies fit the “if only they did (fill in my pet issue)” framing that it is not possible to make strong inferences. “Nobody’s wrong if everybody’s right” with apologies to Buffalo Springfield. More ammo for the circular firing squad…….
I am going to write about this and his other column that has been getting attention in the coming days. While I agree with him that this was a close, margin of error race that easily could have bounced our way I don't not agree that there are not lessons to be learned from what went wrong. You can learn lessons from mistakes even when you win.
There definitely are lessons to learn, I totally agree. Avoiding the tendency to attribute single causes (my cause!) to inherently multivariate problems is a good one to learn.
I agree with this. I do however, wince when people profess Kamala herself was one of the lessons to be learned. I will never abandon my instincts that she was a great candidate and would be again!
That's what I always think. There is an assumption that you only did right when you win, and that you only made mistakes when you lose. Certain factors, like inflation, were out of Harris' control. It made the race harder to win. But that doesn't mean that there weren't mistakes made you can learn from.
Simon- thanks for your efforts to make sure all of us "in the family" understand how mistakes work and how we have to face and learn from then, and how we have to NEVER hide from our own shadows, and how mistakes will always happen, and 20-20 hindsight doesn't mean we are failures and losers, let's keep going especially right now! As my little granddaughters like to say "Nana! A mistake is just something that makes you learn something; it's not BAD"!
Agree. If we had done a little more soul-searching in the past, for example, we might have realized sooner that outsourcing our voter registration and other important efforts was a mistake. Ditto about letting party structures atrophy and narrowing too much our focus on a small number of presidential swing states. So, we can and should always learn from the past even as we recognize that each election is different--different circumstances, issues, candidates--so that we can't assume that what we think we've learned from the past will necessarily translate to the next election cycle. It has to be a constant, ongoing, clear-eyed analysis as events alter the landscape.
I love these numbers-nerdy data-packed posts. We’re slogging through the last four Get Out The Vote days before the close of the California jungle primaries on June 2. I brought my banjo to a local rally yesterday. I just upped my monthly contributions to the three local candidates whom I hope and believe will advance to the general election while we wait to see who will squeak into the governor’s race. I am religiously remembering to take my blood pressure meds.
I start today still in some shock over a personal tragedy yesterday. My cousin Joel, 48 years old, was just five months younger than me….Navy vet, father of five, highly skilled diesel service mechanic for heavy equipment, was in a traffic accident and died on the scene.
Moments like this make you think a lot about what I call the micro-world and the macro-world. In the micro-world, his smaller immediate sphere of influence, we will all feel a void… We will all try to find our place in the village that helps see his family through. My aunt and uncle will have to spend their remaining years, however many they have, with this crippling grief of losing their youngest born. Holidays will be less than they could be, and daily life will be forever changed to varying degrees depending on how often one interacted with him.
And then I think of the big world, the macro-world. The struggles that his clients, largely farmers, were going through needlessly because of these idiotic tariffs and the wholesale destruction of our relationships with other countries. Not to mention the fact that they’re not being done any favors by continuing to pretend like climate change doesn’t exist… The sooner we all accept it and start adapting, the better… Because major adjustments to how we grow food and produce our food supply are going to be necessary. And mostly, I just think about what a cynical time we’re living through and how this is the backdrop his children will have for their final memories of him.
I’m gonna miss Joel, and it’s gonna be bittersweet to watch his kids grow up without him… But not having children of my own, they are now going to be additional fuel for me to help build a better world. They deserved better out of this life than what they just got handed yesterday… And they damn sure deserve better than what America has collectively given them in their youth.
RIP Joel….. We will all continue to love you until we can join you on the other side ❤️🩹❤️🩹❤️🩹
so sorry to hear
I'm so sorry for your loss.
Thank you for the micro-macro perspective in your and your family’s time of grief.
Oh Lord! This is really tough! Big light to Joel as he transitions. May his memory be a blessing. And may you and your family, and his family, take the time it takes to grieve and be in your personal lives for a while. It is brave of you to share this tragedy here with all of us. Thank you for letting us know.
Sorry for your loss. Deepest condolences.
So sorry to hear Steve. RIP Joel...
Love to you and your family Steve......
steve i am so sorry and i posted my story about traffic fatalities on nj 7's highway before i read this. i shall take it down out of respect. my condolences.
Oh, no worries…..these things are just part of life. Thank you for your consideration 🙏
I'm so sorry to hear about this tragic loss. My condolences to you and your family.
Also, complete agreement on mainstream ag needing to face climate change and transition ASAP.
Sorry, PianoMan.
Thoughts are with you and your family.
The shock is one thing; the loss is forever.
Steve - I am so, so sorry to hear this and thank you for sharing it with us here. Death is so final and awful and unexpected death such a shock. Hug those children and parents tight and know that we grieve the loss of your cousin. <3
My son is 48.
Sad news, PianoMan. Take care of your family
Condolences to you and your family.
So sorry PianoMan. Sharing your loss can strengthen all of us.💙
My condolences to you & your family. Having lost my brother in a traffic accident years ago, I feel your pain of sudden loss and wish you all strength & love in the days & years ahead. He will always be in your hearts.
My husband died at 49, and our three kids were all still school aged. Their aunts and uncles have been a tremendous support to me and to them, and I will be forever grateful for the care and guidance they have given to the kids. Don't doubt that you can play a huge role in showing those kids that there can be thriving on the other side of tragedy.
I just donated to Rebecca Bennett's, N-7 Campaign. She's a real Winner!!!
Me too!
Me too!
Simon, thanks for the economic round-up.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say that Trump is not in touch with reality and must be removed from office. I'm writing postcards to Ohio voters.
I donated $10 one time to Bennett. She is fabulous as a candidate. I will consider donating more later on. As for Kean, I wish him well with his health. Not showing up and not voting, however, would be a model I wish other Republicans would adopt.
I attended the Jolly townhall last night. He is also a great candidate who is a very good stump speaker. I wish they did more at the events to engage volunteers right there. However, I signed up for a phone bank event tomorrow, which was forwarded to me by one of his campaign workers. The campaign posted pictures of the event on his substack. In one, you can just barely see the back of my head (I won't say which one belongs to me but there's not a lot of hair on it).
I feel like the Vindman campaign isn't visible enough. Jolly is working really hard but I don't see Vindman out there as much (at least that is my perception... they don't reach out as much either). I'm hoping that changes. I also wonder, based on what I saw at the Jolly campaign, if they aren't keeping Vindman at arms length a bit because Vindman might activate Trump voters more than other candidates.
Trump was never going to make the economy better. Only idiots voted for him for that reason.
77.5 mil of them.
The War on Science by Russell Vought continues unabated. https://elizabethginexi.substack.com/p/summary-of-key-changes-in-ombs-proposed
Political control over research, especially by Christian Nationalist ideologues, is frightening given their willful ignorance. Thanks for keeping the War on Science as one of the key issues at Hopium!
Called senators today asking for support for Ukraine, coming down hard on the ICE abuses in detention centers right now (horrific!!), and once again telling them that DT is not fit for office and must be removed. (I'm a bit more colorful in my language). Still packing boxes and getting ready for the first phase of our move.
Donated a bit to Rebecca Bennett through the Hopium link. The GOP sleazeballs meddling in primaries are on a losing streak and I’d love to keep it going
Perhaps I missed it, and apologies if so, but where is the process the Hopium Community uses to determine when to endorse a candidate in a primary election? Do paid subscribers, particularly those from the state and/or district have an opportunity to weigh in? I think this is important. I am not objecting to the two primary race candidates we have been asked to support recently, but I do feel there needs to be transparency, and a method for those with knowledge about a specific race to be able to share our information and perspectives before an endorsement is made in a primary race.
I make all the decisions. People weigh in here and to me privately with their recommendations daily. No one is obligated to follow the recommendations I make here, nor is a general fund applied to candidates. Everything is optional, a la carte. I have been clear that these illicit GOP campaigns would bring a change in approach. That we generally don't get involved in primaries because there are so many other races to work on. But in the last few weeks we've made exceptions to that general rule because of this new illicit campaign Republicans have launched, and which Will Van Nuys briefed us on last Friday.
I want to be very clear that endorsing in primaries is done all the time in our family - labor, Emily's Lists, Vote Vets, Bernie, etc. It is a common, every day thing. This new emerging world view that it is ok for some members of our family to endorse in a primary and not others seems unsustainable to me.
I have been aware of Republicans and Republican-backed PACs putting money into democratic primaries to influence which of our candidates make it to the general election, even before this issue had been discussed in our community. I agree this something we should work to oppose. And I listened to the interview with Will Van Nuys the day you posted it. I’m not asking my question because of lack of understanding or lack of deep concern. It is actually sparked directly from that briefing with Van Nuys followed by the statement in your May 27 essay: “Similar Republican efforts to knock out our strongest primary candidates in districts we can win this November have been launched in CA-22 against Jasmeet Bains and NJ-7 against Rebecca Bennett in states that have primaries next week.”
Of course everything is voluntary; I believe we all understand that. And I am glad to know that recommendations from the Hopium Community carry weight, which is all I’m really asking. I am also glad that we/you have not decided to endorse Jasmeet Bains in her primary contest against Professor Randy Villegas. As a proud member of the Hopium Community, a community that I promote to others in my network, I would have been disappointed had that happened. The DCCC may believe that Bains is the stronger candidate but that opinion is not shared by Democrats who have been working to flip CA-22.
Central Valley Matters endorsed Randy Villegas over Jasmeet Bains, and have had local canvassers in the district throughout this primary. They are a coalition of over 40 California volunteer groups that funds civic engagement in the Central Valley through carefully vetted grassroots organizations based in CA’s CD 22: Community Water Center Action Fund, Dolores Huerta Action Fund, Poder Latinx, plus Delano Guardians, Loud for Tomorrow & Valley Voices.
The local Indivisible chapters endorsed Villegas; which led to National Indivisible’s endorsement of Villegas. As reported by Cal Matters (https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/05/central-valley-congress-dccc/), the local Dem parties in Kern County, in Tulare, Fresno, and Kings counties — all four of them — also endorsed Villegas. All of this before the DCCC decided to endorse Bains, who by the way was the only Democrat in the CA Assembly to vote no on Prop 50. And when Villegas asked the DCCC if they talked to anyone in the district before making their endorsement, the answer was No.
So I have decided to not endorse Bains due the push back from many here in the community and my respect for all your work. But I think it is important to note that both the NRCC and the DCCC who have access to polling and oppo research have BOTH determined that Bains is the better general election candidate. They only have one criteria for determining this - who is most likely to win. What criteria did all these local groups use? They all believe he was more likely to win the general based on what criteria?
The reason this matters is that we are in a national emergency right now and we must simply must every seat we can, and we now have a situation where the two most experienced organizations in the country in electing people to the US House both believe that Bains is the stronger candidate. Rather than denigrating her perhaps there should have been more effort to understand why both national party committees feel the same about this race.
Two final points:
- I want to acknowledge the organization from Villegas world as your post is word for word the same in places as what others have posted here this week.
- I note that local party groups have endorsed Villegas which of course means that the coalition behind Villegas believes party endorsements in primaries are OK.
Let's hope that whatever happens on Tuesday leads us to finally flipping this seat after many years of trying - Simon
Happy to donate a little money to Rebecca Bennett. We need her!
Great news this morning from Democracy Forward:
"It was just yesterday that we filed to block any funds being paid out from Donald Trump’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund” – aka, the “slush fund.”
Well, it didn’t even take 24 hours – in fact, barely more than 12 – for a federal court to take action in our case: The Trump-Vance administration is barred from taking any more action on their slush fund.
That means Trump and his allies can’t take any further action related to the fund, including transferring money to it, considering submitted claims, or disbursing taxpayer dollars. The next step is our hearing planned for June 12th.
This is a huge win for the American people and taxpayers across the country, especially because there had already been a filing to request nearly $3 million from that fund. Now, a federal court has put the brakes on everything – and that’s because of your support of this work."
To Marc Elias, Skye Perryman and so many other smart, brave and bold law firms helping us every day to keep our democracy. - Thank you!
You do not need to convince me about how badly Trump has failed.
I can see it in an almost $5.00/gal. unleaded gas prices in Ohio.
I can see it in the $150/30 day supply [after manufacturer discount/coupon] of my diabetes medication (Janumet). I had to change it to a much cheaper alternative, which is thankfully still very effective in controlling my blood sugar level.
I can see it in everyday grocery prices rising slowly but surely. As long as Trump is in the WH, I will likely have to continue checking weekly grocery ads and find paper/digital coupons for my and my kids' daily needs.
I will say it again: you do not need to convince me about how badly Trump has screwed us over.
I should also state that, while high drug prices may not have been entirely Trump's doing, he has not done much to help,. If anything, he may have made it worse.
Following up on Simon's point (Wed night) about the "weak vs strong" argument and how it is metriculating through the pro-democracy coalition and DC. In this example, it is clean energy and how tactics could change via a strong & powerful approach.
See below via Stephen Lacey on Open Circuit (podcast/live event) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA-8GzwfZis&t=1s
"Chip Roy was the biggest enemy for solar in Congress last year. There has to be a consuquence to that. We're defnitely going to tell a story the next time someone votes against the solar industry, there's a lot of money that could come after them in the next primary or next election.
And more below Stephen Lacey:
"Chip Roy lost his bid for Texas attorney general last night. He was one of the solar industry's biggest opponents in Congress. And a group of clean energy investors decided there had to be a consequence.
They ran hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of attack ads calling him "not MAGA enough." The ads never mentioned clean energy once. They forced Roy into a runoff, which he lost yesterday.
I recently sat down with one of the lead donors to the campaign: Chris Larsen, the billionaire co-founder of Ripple, who is now investing heavily in climate.
Chris was one of the lead investors in crypto's Fairshake campaign that turned the industry from a regulatory target into one of the most feared political forces in Washington. It spent nearly half of all corporate political dollars in the 2024 cycle and won over 95% of the races it engaged in.
He thinks clean energy can do the same thing. And he does not mince words about what that requires: "This is political warfare. You talk about what works. You talk about what's going to take out that person."
I also sat down with his co-founder at the Clean Break Fund: Mike Brune, the longest-serving executive director of the Sierra Club.
"The next time someone votes against the solar industry, there's a lot of money that could come after them in the next primary or the next election," Brune said.
The clean energy industry has been historically focused on making the affirmative case by highlighting economic benefits, building coalitions, and telling a positive story. But Chris and Mike think that the industry needs to get more serious about delivering political consequences.
"The worst thing you want in a political fight is for your opponents to think you're weak," Chris told the room.
There's still a massive spending gap between renewables and fossil fuels. In 2024, the entire renewable energy industry donated $2.5 million to political campaigns. Oil and gas donated $75 million just to elect Trump.
That gap won't close quickly, but it's the first sign that the industry is serious about taking the gloves off.
Chris is an old friend of mine. In related news read this interview by David Roberts of Steve McBee, who is also an old friend - https://www.volts.wtf/p/giving-clean-electricity-a-political
Yes it is time for all of this to happen now.
Loved this comment from Chris: "The worst thing you want in a political fight is for your opponents to think you're weak," Chris told the room.
Thanks for the heads up on the Dr Volts discussion.
I live next door to NJ-7, have dear friends who live there and are politically active. Kean Jr. ain’t his father - a revered former governor. Rumors are flying, with rehab leading the pack. I don’t wish ill health on anyone, but I won’t be sorry to see Junior lose.
I have seen reports of federal and NJ bills being introduced to tax any 1.776 slush fund payments at 100%. California has already done so. Now that’s the type of fight I like to see!!!
I just thought taxing it at 100% was wonderful!
Thank you for introducing us to Rebecca Bennett, from my neighboring state of NJ. The women continue to impress! Called my rep and donated.