Also, former Rep. Claudine Schneider and her team has been working hard on a preparation package for all kinds of plausible and possible 2026 midterm interference scenarios. If anyone has ideas and recommendations for who else should have those materials, please let us know.
The polls right now are great, but the GOTV is going to be as important as ever in 2026. We have to account for any major suppression efforts that may chip away at any potential polling advantage.
I'm glad to see us on the move and on offense. Let's hope the party views us all as potential sources of campaign activity and not just money. Hopefully they will also continue to build out the infrastructure of the state parties and not just the TV buys, which vanish quickly.
I wonder if we should stop calling places "red states" and "red districts". I get the reality. But let's not give them what they don't deserve. I remember someone said Clinton referred to people who hadn't voted for him as "future supporters", or something like that. (I might’ve learned that from Simon, in fact.) These are future blue districts.
I'm getting organizing emails from DNC now--not just those asking for money. The emails talk about D organizing efforts of all types and how people can get involved. If you want to be (as Simon says) "a partner in the fight not just a donor to the cause," you can go to DNC website and sign up for these organizing emails.
I have a question about these ad buys that aren't illuminated by the dollar amount: what do the ads say? Where are they being placed? As a person who is repeatedly being asked to donate, how do I know that the people spending my money are doing it effectively? It is possible to spend a lot of money unproductively. There has been discussion here as to how that happened during the Harris campaign.
These campaigns will begin in the late summer and fall, so there is plenty of time for the arguments and content to be tested, discussed. The Harris campaign failure was unique in recent years. We won in 2018 and 2020, overperformed in 2022, overperformed down ballot in 2024 including in the House, where we picked up two seats, and have been winning elections of all kinds by huge margins this cycle. There is no reason to default to worry/concern/failure/we suck. We simply must move beyond that sentiment. It is understandable, given our loss in 2024, but it is not the reality now nor has it been for much of the past severfal cycles.
Was it really messaging we did that was the problem or the messaging other people- including media was doing about us? Politico put out an opinion piece - ‘Kamala latest lie’ regarding her stating that Trump would get us into a war. Apparently corporate media has no problem with the L word when it’s a Democrat. Also if you want to help with Dem messaging- stop saying ‘we suck’ all the time! Go share some stuff that Dems are doing (go follow Ariella Elm if you need ideas) also if don’t want Dems take money from PACs or big donors then they will be sending out endless emails, texts, and phone calls to you. I ignore them all I donate based on Hopium and a few other groups are supporting.
I continue to say one of the biggest hurdles is the MSM. That is why independent media is so important. I am a paid subscriber to a few. There are so many, which is a good thing. My husband's 86 year old aunt now goes on Substack and has found her favorites (with a little help 😉).
Indeed, you most definitely did not. I think you gently raised a legitimate question without any negativity whatsoever. In my opinion, it ought to be perfectly OK to ask for some reassurance about ad strategies and communication. (And I say this as someone who has written a lot of ad campaigns, albeit none of them political.)
It's not a question of "we" sucking. It's a question of the best use of resources - for example, the high price of TV ads that may not be reaching the voters we need to speak to. So, are they, for example, using clips of Trump saying, "We can't pay for child care or Medicare because we have to fight wars?" Or showing ICE killing and brutalizing people telling voters this is what the GOP Congress is funding? I hope so, and not some namby pamby stuff.
Lyn, I repeat - why the assumption that we will be stupid and not smart? I don't understand the sentiment here. Have we been fucking up all these special elections across the US, the November elections, Virginia this past week? I repeat - the assumption that we will disappoint, or make mistakes, is not helpful or consistent with what we are seeing.
Finally, I strongly advise everyone here not to become an ad critic. What you want to see and what undecided, late breaking voters want to see are not the same thing.
Respectfully, I agree constant Dems are terrible, two parties are the same, I will only for vote for Candidate X, etc. is not helpful. However, sometimes we may express some frustration or ask questions, while they may not be phrased in the best possible light, are coming from a good place and not meant to bring people down.
I believe, rightly or wrongly, it is wise to acknowledge or express some understanding that there may have been reasons to be frustrated, but now things are moving in the right direction. Who would have thought Texas would be in play?
I am definitely more hopeful than I was a year ago.
It would help a lot if the Democrats released their report on what went wrong in 2024. Then we would not have to assume that we are smart or stupid. We would just be able to know what works and what doesn't.
would it help? it might show some very uncomfortable things about the electorate and their attitudes towards black women and trans rights. just my opinion, but when rick wilson and chris lacivita say the trans ads turned the tide, with lacivita and his team being stunned at the reaction, do we really need to know what the democrat's report says? the answer is right there in front of us already.
Simon, I wholeheartedly agree with this sentiment. I would like to ask if I may, do you feel Harris was ‘the problem?’ I understand people took issue with how she ascended to the nomination but I’ve always felt she was a political rockstar. You know well from previous posts I’ve made, that I’ve long felt she was a severely underestimated figure and I could sense her X Factor from her days as a senator, thinking she was most certainly someone to keep watch for.
Always felt she had it in her to be the one to officially break that glass ceiling (some think she actually did but we don’t have time to litigate the integrity of the last election for we are where we are). Soon as she dropped from the 2020 primary, i remember telling my family quite swiftly she was gonna then be the VP pick for Biden.
Though I’ve expressed concerns related to the Middle East, like you, I do not believe that cost her in the end. It was rather remarkable to me how the nation’s majority yearned for anything but a rematch and then ended up with half of what they didn’t want. Yes, there’s a great deal of both sexism and racism in sectors of our electorate but the tide towards female leadership ascending is coming. One can feel it brewing and rightly so! I say that as a proud male ally who’s long yearned for female leadership at the top.
When following Harris’ campaign, yes there were significant flaws but HER messaging was NOT dissimilar to that of both Governors Spanberger and Sherrill who won their races by significant margins. Harris I felt was on point. Her team however, and furthermore, the party around her unfortunately came across very much all over the place and out of sync with her ‘meat and potatoes/immediate needs’ messaging and I’ve no doubt that frustrated her.
She was given mere months to build a campaign and while of course, it took a community to help raise the amount of money she did, and the backing she did…nevertheless, she was the face! I remember thinking to myself, “of course, this sharp, fierce, underrated woman of color managed to build a $1 billion dollar grassroots campaign and a ferocious excitement around her prospects unseen since perhaps the days of Obama.”
None of that appeared manufactured to me. I saw the genuine enthusiasm. I’m not saying she’ll even achieve the nomination should she run again. She may or may not. She may have still even achieved the nomination had Biden stepped down earlier to open the floor for a primary. Who knows really?!?
I just take issue at times, when our party seems to be too quick to dismiss what we perceived ‘didn’t work.’ In my view, Harris worked! The campaign built around her and the inconsistent messaging ecosystem separate from her, unfortunately didn’t. Arguably, she’s likely to build her most succinct campaign yet should she run again, especially given her appeal on the trail now with free rein to tell it like it is more than she already had.
That said, it’s possible we may ‘need’ the likes of a Mark Kelly or Gavin Newsom in order to win given the complexity of circumstances we find ourselves in going into the next Presidential election especially off the heels of how the midterms unfold.
While I’ll always have affection for Harris no matter what position she held, it’s sees clear for some time now that in retrospect, she should have been AG as opposed to Garland. Certainly, we wouldn’t find ourselves in such a mess as a nation today had that been the case. Go figure, as AG, Harris would have effectively prosecuted the case and then would have set herself up in an even stronger position to run for President. But you know, we can’t change the past nor dwell on it much at all.
Yes, I’d still love to see her as President and yes, I do believe in my gut against the odds, we will elect a wonderful first Female President in our not too distant future period (be it Harris herself, Spanberger, Sherrill, AOC, Whitmer, or Slotkin, etc.). After all, my initial instincts about Harris starting from the senate nearly came to fruition which was surreal for me to witness (and crushing in the end of course just the same).
Needless to say, I’m not abandoning my overarching instincts anytime soon hence why in spite of my neurosis at times, I bullishly remain a cautious optimist. If fortune has it, Harris will at LEAST become our next AG (certainly she SHOULD be offered the position by the next Democratic President). Bottom line, I pray our party and furthermore, our country does NOT cast her to the waste side. She’s too prominent a figure in our fight for democracy.
I think the whole Biden old/debate/difficult transition to Harris weighed us down, terribly, and we know our SuperPAC did not run many negative ads against Trump, which was a much bigger mistake than anything she as a candidate did. I just think putting her in as we did so late, with a campaign built for someone else, was always going to be very, very hard. Her performance was great. The campaign around her was below average. She only lost by 1.5 pts - it was a very close election and could have easily broken our way.
Not sure if you are asking me, but if so: I was delighted with Harris and volunteered and donated for her. I am still angry that a highly qualified, experienced, brave and compassionate public official was allowed to be portrayed as somehow unqualified when running against a psychopathic crook. I know fuck all about ads and such but someone let those fuckers get away with saying that about Kamala despite all the money we donated to help her win. So we got plunged into hell, our country half destroyed. I want to make sure someone brilliant is doing the ads this time. I don't see many ads but I sure see a bunch of lame ones. Don't watch TV but I'm always on Youtube. I used to see so many ads like the following: Hakeem Jeffries or some other leader stiffly recites a script to the effect of some monthly fundraising deadline coming in three, two, one. As a voter, this would not motivate me. I want to be told that my donation is for the fight to stop something horrible or create something that will make life better. Somebody got paid to make the ad in question, and donors money was used to buy time on Youtube. I hope that ad maker got fired.
the most discouraging thing to me was when michael podhorzer signaled that indies and squishy biden voters were not going to come out for her, something they were seeing by september. he attempted to call attention to it, asked that the campaign start pointing out trump's idiocy and horribleness, and they did try that some iirc. also, it seemed like her numbers suffered the more people got to know her, so some critics think more time would not have helped her; but i think that also dovetailed with trans ads, run on a loop on every sports event.....and then the gaza disrupters, nowhere to be seen today. i always felt a lot of them were tools of the russians, who are good at this kind of thing with the left, others hold that today's youth have short attention spans. well. i heard that for 31 years working in schools, so i doubt it. polls today show people would switch their votes if they could.....well, too late. i had family down from toronto, colombians who emigrated there.....the anger toward trump up there is tangible and real, and they blame him for fucking up the world's economy. they did like him snatching maduro though, but thought machado was foolish to snuggle up to trump; nothing good ever comes of it.
I think there were 4 reasons for the loss in 2024.
1. Biden should have declared by early 2023 that he would not seek re-election leading to a real primary... An error in judgment and ego control and a staff that did not challenge him on it. He had a remarkable term in cleaning up the messes. Took the political hit on Afghanistan but it was the correct and couageous move. Acted expeditiously to contain covid. Made the turn on the economy and the green economy despite the spike on inflation which was largely beyond his control.
2. And then Gaza, which rather quickly for me became a failure of presidential judgment and revealed the underbelly of AIPAC's influence on both parties. Alot of young voters refused to vote, or turned to Trump and his lies or in retribution for Biden's policies. That factor is still underappreciated. Bigly! Gaza remains an afterthought in today's political discourse, an utter tragedy. Israelis need to dump Netanyahu as much as we need to Dump Trump.
3.. Then the debate debacle on top of those first two.
4. The mismanagement and misspending of $2 billion by the Harris campaign when you add all the spending and donating across the country. Simon has argued this point exceptionally well. They applied old-timey campaign strategies, did not highlight Trump's massive negatives, or defend against GOP lies and dirt adequately on social media. GOP had Putin and other malevilent foreign actors to assist them.
But its a new day. We have some tremendous new faces and the wind at our back.
Social media and silos are where the most trouble might be. Hoperully the right lessons were learned and the right people were fired and hired.
Five dollar gas might be the secret weapon to break through the bullsh*t on the right.
i am thinking about going back to church and getting on my knees and praying that the dems win the senate so trumpism can be stopped in its tracks! or maybe i will just lite a candle instead and contribute thru hopium. remember, earlier is better!
Echoing Lyn Gerry: very curious about the ad strategy. It’s encouraging to see the confidence and the increase in digital advertising, but what and how it’s said, where it’s said, etc. matters. It would be great to see some interviews about the approach.
NB: I am seeing optimism spring in my sane friends that the nightmare may be unraveling. A crocus for the heart!!! 💜
How can Talarico be only 1% ahead of the corrupt Paxton? This is so disturbing. Has America lost its morality? What other values have we ignored? In Idaho, we have Risch (R) who is in his 80s running for reelection for the Senate. I am voting for anyone but him.
Jo, we haven't won a Senate or gubernatorial race in Texas in 36 years. To have a young, not well known state rep ahead of 2nd most powerful Republican in the state is deeply encouraging.
Simon - having your insider and strategic perspective has saved me days and nights of worry. We don't know how to see these races as non-politicos, and it's one of the most useful aspects of Hopium for me. Thanks for educating us always!
Something that really excites me about this cycle, is that now that we are going to be aggressively playing hard for Senate seats in places like Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, and maybe even Florida if things continue to trend the way they are… Whether we win one of those Senate seats or not, That will give us a boost all the way down the ticket. We could end up picking up some judgeships, state, legislative seats, state Senate seats, etc., that otherwise we wouldn’t have gotten quite across the finish line just because of the fact that there’s media investment and some field work in those states that ordinarily wouldn’t be taking place. There’s such a compounding effect that can happen when you are coordinating efforts from the top of the ticket all the way to the most local of races and have strong state party apparatuses. And remember, every state legislative seat we take away from them has the potential to override some terrible Republican governor’s veto, or filibuster some terrible Republican governor’s worst idea, or protect a good Democratic governor’s veto power over a badly gerrymandered republican super majority. So much good can come from these comprehensive ecosystem wide campaigns.
And I just wanna say, as someone who spent plenty of time in 2025 feeling largely disappointed by what felt like an underwhelming and inadequate response to what’s been happening from our congressional leader leadership in Washington… I am very proud of the shifts that they have made. There is a palpable difference in the aggressiveness, strategic and tactical execution, and strength from both leader, Schumer and leader, Jefferies and their teams… They have clearly been learning how to deal with this as we go… And this has been an absolutely unprecedented situation, so learning was required. But they have taken our concerns, very seriously, and I can feel the difference. They have grown into the moment and are continuing to do so… Not just them but the entire party.
I’m proud to be on this team… America needs us and history is calling.
Yes, there are going to a lot more Democratic elected officials, and a lot fewer Republicans, all across the country this year. How many is in part up to how we are all going to work. 2026 is an opportunity, not a guarentee, one we must seize, together.
As far as I can see, none of our issues as you listed them is on anyone’s table because we no longer can be assured that many elected officials even do their jobs. (Or work at all.) Every one of them vowed to uphold the Constitution as they were sworn into office, but it is a rare Republican who follows the Constitution anymore. “The administration” certainly has no loyalty to the Constitution. I think all these elected officials who falsely pled their faithfulness should lose their jobs due to breach of contract.
I hope we're showing ads with the almost naked woman in the huge champagne glass at the Mar a Lago party. I hope we're showing the shitty food being given to out navy while Kegsbreath spends 900K on crab legs. I hope we're showing the wind projects blocked while the damn AI data centers raise our electric bills. I hope we're showing the pardoned J6ers who have since been arrested for child molestation and such.
My two cents, if I may: These might work, or they might not. Making those choices is complicated. Such ads would resonate with you and me, and much of the Democratic base. But in another comment here, Simon underscores a hugely important point:
“What you want to see and what undecided, late breaking voters want to see are not the same thing.”
.
PS. I’ve previously suggested cutting some mocking anti-Trump ads featuring Stormy Daniels. But I could be wrong about their actual impact.
Good point. I have have no idea what undecided voters might want to see since I can't even fathom anyone voting for the GOP or Trump ever, or how anyone could be undecided.
I’m the same. I fail to see why anyone ever voter for Trump; it defies my imagination. Which places you and me both at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to ad messaging.
I would think ads might work a little more regionally in a midterm election. I just read a new NPR article about the unbelievable damage Trump is doing to farmers—first the tariffs, now fertilizer and diesel fuel. These were areas like Mississippi not at play for Democrats, but I would assume they might do this in places like Iowa.
You and Simon raise a valid point. It may be important to have people on the advertising team with different backgrounds and politics (DEI?). Kind of like hiring former hackers to design cyber protection systems. Too much group-think could be hazardous to democracy's health.
The ad buy from Dems is really good to see. Really encouraging. Like a chess game where you have the initiative and your opponent is having to react to your threats. I also found it interesting to see exactly how the GOP is allocating their ad spending in the Senate races. No money allocated to TX? Some combo of cockiness or telling Paxton he can kiss their [burro]? In any event that could turn out to be a strategic error for them given the polling showing Talarico with an early small lead. [Edit -- SORRY -- Teach me to read numbers off a phone. $71 million for Roy Cooper, not $7m. That makes sense. Could be time for annual eye checkup]
My goal this weekend is to catch up with 5 of the candidate interviews I haven't seen yet. I'll report back Monday. For those of you who Bluesky here's a link to recent post from Simon where he describes his candidate interviews and why they are good for the soul. https://bsky.app/profile/hopiumchronicles.bsky.social/post/3mkbdkzjzy22h
"The candidates we've been meeting together... I am encouraged by how grounded they are... You're not hearing candidates that are questioning their path. They're confident in their path... it comes out through their fluency in what's happening to people on the ground." [easy to find Simon's posts on Bluesky by just searching for Simon Rosenberg in the app by the way. I try to drop in a few times a day].
Started a Spanish class Wednesday which I hope will help in my volunteering with a local group that supports immigrants.
Also, former Rep. Claudine Schneider and her team has been working hard on a preparation package for all kinds of plausible and possible 2026 midterm interference scenarios. If anyone has ideas and recommendations for who else should have those materials, please let us know.
The polls right now are great, but the GOTV is going to be as important as ever in 2026. We have to account for any major suppression efforts that may chip away at any potential polling advantage.
dems need some young folks: do some memes like the iranians do with trump
Great interviews this week. Love Sherrod Brown- what my radically Dem parents of the old days would call “an elder statesman”. We need him back!
Thanks for the clear TO DO list Simon! I’m back at it this week.
BTW everyone: if you want some fun and uplift, watch THE WEST WING again. It’s on Netflix. Ahhh. Those were the days!
April 27th mailing 100 tariff message postcards to GA.
Self report from a Hopium Information Warrior
I've made and posted a *.jpg file of candidates and State Parties that Hopium is supporting, with link to interviews and pictures. Hope I labelled all the photos correctly. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1N4eg7UI9-6UqQnjzwPC2z6NekcmSepKA/view?usp=sharing
Thank you Deborah
I'm glad to see us on the move and on offense. Let's hope the party views us all as potential sources of campaign activity and not just money. Hopefully they will also continue to build out the infrastructure of the state parties and not just the TV buys, which vanish quickly.
I wonder if we should stop calling places "red states" and "red districts". I get the reality. But let's not give them what they don't deserve. I remember someone said Clinton referred to people who hadn't voted for him as "future supporters", or something like that. (I might’ve learned that from Simon, in fact.) These are future blue districts.
I'm getting organizing emails from DNC now--not just those asking for money. The emails talk about D organizing efforts of all types and how people can get involved. If you want to be (as Simon says) "a partner in the fight not just a donor to the cause," you can go to DNC website and sign up for these organizing emails.
Thanks for the advice. I have done a lot in the past, especially 2016, but I don’t seem to get those emails.
I have a question about these ad buys that aren't illuminated by the dollar amount: what do the ads say? Where are they being placed? As a person who is repeatedly being asked to donate, how do I know that the people spending my money are doing it effectively? It is possible to spend a lot of money unproductively. There has been discussion here as to how that happened during the Harris campaign.
These campaigns will begin in the late summer and fall, so there is plenty of time for the arguments and content to be tested, discussed. The Harris campaign failure was unique in recent years. We won in 2018 and 2020, overperformed in 2022, overperformed down ballot in 2024 including in the House, where we picked up two seats, and have been winning elections of all kinds by huge margins this cycle. There is no reason to default to worry/concern/failure/we suck. We simply must move beyond that sentiment. It is understandable, given our loss in 2024, but it is not the reality now nor has it been for much of the past severfal cycles.
Was it really messaging we did that was the problem or the messaging other people- including media was doing about us? Politico put out an opinion piece - ‘Kamala latest lie’ regarding her stating that Trump would get us into a war. Apparently corporate media has no problem with the L word when it’s a Democrat. Also if you want to help with Dem messaging- stop saying ‘we suck’ all the time! Go share some stuff that Dems are doing (go follow Ariella Elm if you need ideas) also if don’t want Dems take money from PACs or big donors then they will be sending out endless emails, texts, and phone calls to you. I ignore them all I donate based on Hopium and a few other groups are supporting.
I continue to say one of the biggest hurdles is the MSM. That is why independent media is so important. I am a paid subscriber to a few. There are so many, which is a good thing. My husband's 86 year old aunt now goes on Substack and has found her favorites (with a little help 😉).
Oh stop it. I'm not "saying we suck" all the time and you've made me angry.
Indeed, you most definitely did not. I think you gently raised a legitimate question without any negativity whatsoever. In my opinion, it ought to be perfectly OK to ask for some reassurance about ad strategies and communication. (And I say this as someone who has written a lot of ad campaigns, albeit none of them political.)
It's not a question of "we" sucking. It's a question of the best use of resources - for example, the high price of TV ads that may not be reaching the voters we need to speak to. So, are they, for example, using clips of Trump saying, "We can't pay for child care or Medicare because we have to fight wars?" Or showing ICE killing and brutalizing people telling voters this is what the GOP Congress is funding? I hope so, and not some namby pamby stuff.
Lyn, I repeat - why the assumption that we will be stupid and not smart? I don't understand the sentiment here. Have we been fucking up all these special elections across the US, the November elections, Virginia this past week? I repeat - the assumption that we will disappoint, or make mistakes, is not helpful or consistent with what we are seeing.
Finally, I strongly advise everyone here not to become an ad critic. What you want to see and what undecided, late breaking voters want to see are not the same thing.
OK
Respectfully, I agree constant Dems are terrible, two parties are the same, I will only for vote for Candidate X, etc. is not helpful. However, sometimes we may express some frustration or ask questions, while they may not be phrased in the best possible light, are coming from a good place and not meant to bring people down.
I believe, rightly or wrongly, it is wise to acknowledge or express some understanding that there may have been reasons to be frustrated, but now things are moving in the right direction. Who would have thought Texas would be in play?
I am definitely more hopeful than I was a year ago.
Once again, thank you for Hopium.
It would help a lot if the Democrats released their report on what went wrong in 2024. Then we would not have to assume that we are smart or stupid. We would just be able to know what works and what doesn't.
would it help? it might show some very uncomfortable things about the electorate and their attitudes towards black women and trans rights. just my opinion, but when rick wilson and chris lacivita say the trans ads turned the tide, with lacivita and his team being stunned at the reaction, do we really need to know what the democrat's report says? the answer is right there in front of us already.
Simon, I wholeheartedly agree with this sentiment. I would like to ask if I may, do you feel Harris was ‘the problem?’ I understand people took issue with how she ascended to the nomination but I’ve always felt she was a political rockstar. You know well from previous posts I’ve made, that I’ve long felt she was a severely underestimated figure and I could sense her X Factor from her days as a senator, thinking she was most certainly someone to keep watch for.
Always felt she had it in her to be the one to officially break that glass ceiling (some think she actually did but we don’t have time to litigate the integrity of the last election for we are where we are). Soon as she dropped from the 2020 primary, i remember telling my family quite swiftly she was gonna then be the VP pick for Biden.
Though I’ve expressed concerns related to the Middle East, like you, I do not believe that cost her in the end. It was rather remarkable to me how the nation’s majority yearned for anything but a rematch and then ended up with half of what they didn’t want. Yes, there’s a great deal of both sexism and racism in sectors of our electorate but the tide towards female leadership ascending is coming. One can feel it brewing and rightly so! I say that as a proud male ally who’s long yearned for female leadership at the top.
When following Harris’ campaign, yes there were significant flaws but HER messaging was NOT dissimilar to that of both Governors Spanberger and Sherrill who won their races by significant margins. Harris I felt was on point. Her team however, and furthermore, the party around her unfortunately came across very much all over the place and out of sync with her ‘meat and potatoes/immediate needs’ messaging and I’ve no doubt that frustrated her.
She was given mere months to build a campaign and while of course, it took a community to help raise the amount of money she did, and the backing she did…nevertheless, she was the face! I remember thinking to myself, “of course, this sharp, fierce, underrated woman of color managed to build a $1 billion dollar grassroots campaign and a ferocious excitement around her prospects unseen since perhaps the days of Obama.”
None of that appeared manufactured to me. I saw the genuine enthusiasm. I’m not saying she’ll even achieve the nomination should she run again. She may or may not. She may have still even achieved the nomination had Biden stepped down earlier to open the floor for a primary. Who knows really?!?
I just take issue at times, when our party seems to be too quick to dismiss what we perceived ‘didn’t work.’ In my view, Harris worked! The campaign built around her and the inconsistent messaging ecosystem separate from her, unfortunately didn’t. Arguably, she’s likely to build her most succinct campaign yet should she run again, especially given her appeal on the trail now with free rein to tell it like it is more than she already had.
That said, it’s possible we may ‘need’ the likes of a Mark Kelly or Gavin Newsom in order to win given the complexity of circumstances we find ourselves in going into the next Presidential election especially off the heels of how the midterms unfold.
While I’ll always have affection for Harris no matter what position she held, it’s sees clear for some time now that in retrospect, she should have been AG as opposed to Garland. Certainly, we wouldn’t find ourselves in such a mess as a nation today had that been the case. Go figure, as AG, Harris would have effectively prosecuted the case and then would have set herself up in an even stronger position to run for President. But you know, we can’t change the past nor dwell on it much at all.
Yes, I’d still love to see her as President and yes, I do believe in my gut against the odds, we will elect a wonderful first Female President in our not too distant future period (be it Harris herself, Spanberger, Sherrill, AOC, Whitmer, or Slotkin, etc.). After all, my initial instincts about Harris starting from the senate nearly came to fruition which was surreal for me to witness (and crushing in the end of course just the same).
Needless to say, I’m not abandoning my overarching instincts anytime soon hence why in spite of my neurosis at times, I bullishly remain a cautious optimist. If fortune has it, Harris will at LEAST become our next AG (certainly she SHOULD be offered the position by the next Democratic President). Bottom line, I pray our party and furthermore, our country does NOT cast her to the waste side. She’s too prominent a figure in our fight for democracy.
I think the whole Biden old/debate/difficult transition to Harris weighed us down, terribly, and we know our SuperPAC did not run many negative ads against Trump, which was a much bigger mistake than anything she as a candidate did. I just think putting her in as we did so late, with a campaign built for someone else, was always going to be very, very hard. Her performance was great. The campaign around her was below average. She only lost by 1.5 pts - it was a very close election and could have easily broken our way.
Not sure if you are asking me, but if so: I was delighted with Harris and volunteered and donated for her. I am still angry that a highly qualified, experienced, brave and compassionate public official was allowed to be portrayed as somehow unqualified when running against a psychopathic crook. I know fuck all about ads and such but someone let those fuckers get away with saying that about Kamala despite all the money we donated to help her win. So we got plunged into hell, our country half destroyed. I want to make sure someone brilliant is doing the ads this time. I don't see many ads but I sure see a bunch of lame ones. Don't watch TV but I'm always on Youtube. I used to see so many ads like the following: Hakeem Jeffries or some other leader stiffly recites a script to the effect of some monthly fundraising deadline coming in three, two, one. As a voter, this would not motivate me. I want to be told that my donation is for the fight to stop something horrible or create something that will make life better. Somebody got paid to make the ad in question, and donors money was used to buy time on Youtube. I hope that ad maker got fired.
the most discouraging thing to me was when michael podhorzer signaled that indies and squishy biden voters were not going to come out for her, something they were seeing by september. he attempted to call attention to it, asked that the campaign start pointing out trump's idiocy and horribleness, and they did try that some iirc. also, it seemed like her numbers suffered the more people got to know her, so some critics think more time would not have helped her; but i think that also dovetailed with trans ads, run on a loop on every sports event.....and then the gaza disrupters, nowhere to be seen today. i always felt a lot of them were tools of the russians, who are good at this kind of thing with the left, others hold that today's youth have short attention spans. well. i heard that for 31 years working in schools, so i doubt it. polls today show people would switch their votes if they could.....well, too late. i had family down from toronto, colombians who emigrated there.....the anger toward trump up there is tangible and real, and they blame him for fucking up the world's economy. they did like him snatching maduro though, but thought machado was foolish to snuggle up to trump; nothing good ever comes of it.
I think there were 4 reasons for the loss in 2024.
1. Biden should have declared by early 2023 that he would not seek re-election leading to a real primary... An error in judgment and ego control and a staff that did not challenge him on it. He had a remarkable term in cleaning up the messes. Took the political hit on Afghanistan but it was the correct and couageous move. Acted expeditiously to contain covid. Made the turn on the economy and the green economy despite the spike on inflation which was largely beyond his control.
2. And then Gaza, which rather quickly for me became a failure of presidential judgment and revealed the underbelly of AIPAC's influence on both parties. Alot of young voters refused to vote, or turned to Trump and his lies or in retribution for Biden's policies. That factor is still underappreciated. Bigly! Gaza remains an afterthought in today's political discourse, an utter tragedy. Israelis need to dump Netanyahu as much as we need to Dump Trump.
3.. Then the debate debacle on top of those first two.
4. The mismanagement and misspending of $2 billion by the Harris campaign when you add all the spending and donating across the country. Simon has argued this point exceptionally well. They applied old-timey campaign strategies, did not highlight Trump's massive negatives, or defend against GOP lies and dirt adequately on social media. GOP had Putin and other malevilent foreign actors to assist them.
But its a new day. We have some tremendous new faces and the wind at our back.
Social media and silos are where the most trouble might be. Hoperully the right lessons were learned and the right people were fired and hired.
Five dollar gas might be the secret weapon to break through the bullsh*t on the right.
🙏🙏🙏
...please excuse typos, my phone is not letting me edit right now
i am thinking about going back to church and getting on my knees and praying that the dems win the senate so trumpism can be stopped in its tracks! or maybe i will just lite a candle instead and contribute thru hopium. remember, earlier is better!
Echoing Lyn Gerry: very curious about the ad strategy. It’s encouraging to see the confidence and the increase in digital advertising, but what and how it’s said, where it’s said, etc. matters. It would be great to see some interviews about the approach.
NB: I am seeing optimism spring in my sane friends that the nightmare may be unraveling. A crocus for the heart!!! 💜
Ben Meiselas quotes questions that Simon posed in 2016 about Melania's visa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeHBEcK7Xyg
Paging Jake Tapper.
Does he quote me directly?
Yes. He shows a long list of questions you posed and quotes you by name. Your name is also on the screen.
How can Talarico be only 1% ahead of the corrupt Paxton? This is so disturbing. Has America lost its morality? What other values have we ignored? In Idaho, we have Risch (R) who is in his 80s running for reelection for the Senate. I am voting for anyone but him.
Jo, we haven't won a Senate or gubernatorial race in Texas in 36 years. To have a young, not well known state rep ahead of 2nd most powerful Republican in the state is deeply encouraging.
Simon - having your insider and strategic perspective has saved me days and nights of worry. We don't know how to see these races as non-politicos, and it's one of the most useful aspects of Hopium for me. Thanks for educating us always!
if joe trippi and carville are right, repubs no one is paying attention to are gonna go down. that's how bad it could be for them.
Something that really excites me about this cycle, is that now that we are going to be aggressively playing hard for Senate seats in places like Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, and maybe even Florida if things continue to trend the way they are… Whether we win one of those Senate seats or not, That will give us a boost all the way down the ticket. We could end up picking up some judgeships, state, legislative seats, state Senate seats, etc., that otherwise we wouldn’t have gotten quite across the finish line just because of the fact that there’s media investment and some field work in those states that ordinarily wouldn’t be taking place. There’s such a compounding effect that can happen when you are coordinating efforts from the top of the ticket all the way to the most local of races and have strong state party apparatuses. And remember, every state legislative seat we take away from them has the potential to override some terrible Republican governor’s veto, or filibuster some terrible Republican governor’s worst idea, or protect a good Democratic governor’s veto power over a badly gerrymandered republican super majority. So much good can come from these comprehensive ecosystem wide campaigns.
And I just wanna say, as someone who spent plenty of time in 2025 feeling largely disappointed by what felt like an underwhelming and inadequate response to what’s been happening from our congressional leader leadership in Washington… I am very proud of the shifts that they have made. There is a palpable difference in the aggressiveness, strategic and tactical execution, and strength from both leader, Schumer and leader, Jefferies and their teams… They have clearly been learning how to deal with this as we go… And this has been an absolutely unprecedented situation, so learning was required. But they have taken our concerns, very seriously, and I can feel the difference. They have grown into the moment and are continuing to do so… Not just them but the entire party.
I’m proud to be on this team… America needs us and history is calling.
Yes, there are going to a lot more Democratic elected officials, and a lot fewer Republicans, all across the country this year. How many is in part up to how we are all going to work. 2026 is an opportunity, not a guarentee, one we must seize, together.
As far as I can see, none of our issues as you listed them is on anyone’s table because we no longer can be assured that many elected officials even do their jobs. (Or work at all.) Every one of them vowed to uphold the Constitution as they were sworn into office, but it is a rare Republican who follows the Constitution anymore. “The administration” certainly has no loyalty to the Constitution. I think all these elected officials who falsely pled their faithfulness should lose their jobs due to breach of contract.
I hope we're showing ads with the almost naked woman in the huge champagne glass at the Mar a Lago party. I hope we're showing the shitty food being given to out navy while Kegsbreath spends 900K on crab legs. I hope we're showing the wind projects blocked while the damn AI data centers raise our electric bills. I hope we're showing the pardoned J6ers who have since been arrested for child molestation and such.
My two cents, if I may: These might work, or they might not. Making those choices is complicated. Such ads would resonate with you and me, and much of the Democratic base. But in another comment here, Simon underscores a hugely important point:
“What you want to see and what undecided, late breaking voters want to see are not the same thing.”
.
PS. I’ve previously suggested cutting some mocking anti-Trump ads featuring Stormy Daniels. But I could be wrong about their actual impact.
Good point. I have have no idea what undecided voters might want to see since I can't even fathom anyone voting for the GOP or Trump ever, or how anyone could be undecided.
I’m the same. I fail to see why anyone ever voter for Trump; it defies my imagination. Which places you and me both at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to ad messaging.
I would think ads might work a little more regionally in a midterm election. I just read a new NPR article about the unbelievable damage Trump is doing to farmers—first the tariffs, now fertilizer and diesel fuel. These were areas like Mississippi not at play for Democrats, but I would assume they might do this in places like Iowa.
You and Simon raise a valid point. It may be important to have people on the advertising team with different backgrounds and politics (DEI?). Kind of like hiring former hackers to design cyber protection systems. Too much group-think could be hazardous to democracy's health.
Trumputin Sinking Fast
The ad buy from Dems is really good to see. Really encouraging. Like a chess game where you have the initiative and your opponent is having to react to your threats. I also found it interesting to see exactly how the GOP is allocating their ad spending in the Senate races. No money allocated to TX? Some combo of cockiness or telling Paxton he can kiss their [burro]? In any event that could turn out to be a strategic error for them given the polling showing Talarico with an early small lead. [Edit -- SORRY -- Teach me to read numbers off a phone. $71 million for Roy Cooper, not $7m. That makes sense. Could be time for annual eye checkup]
My goal this weekend is to catch up with 5 of the candidate interviews I haven't seen yet. I'll report back Monday. For those of you who Bluesky here's a link to recent post from Simon where he describes his candidate interviews and why they are good for the soul. https://bsky.app/profile/hopiumchronicles.bsky.social/post/3mkbdkzjzy22h
"The candidates we've been meeting together... I am encouraged by how grounded they are... You're not hearing candidates that are questioning their path. They're confident in their path... it comes out through their fluency in what's happening to people on the ground." [easy to find Simon's posts on Bluesky by just searching for Simon Rosenberg in the app by the way. I try to drop in a few times a day].
Started a Spanish class Wednesday which I hope will help in my volunteering with a local group that supports immigrants.