Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
On The Polls, New Podcasts and The Republican Party's Attempt to End American Democracy
Happy Friday all. Welcome new subscribers!
On Polls and The Election - Know this is on everyone’s mind, so a few resources:
- My Tuesday post which dives into current polling and election data. Bottom line - It’s really early. I am not worried, but we do have a lot of work to do. Like 2022 polling right now is not doing a good job capturing what happens when people actually vote - which is we keep winning.
A note about the CNN poll. Compare it’s Biden job approval to two other high quality, independent weekly tracks:
Economist/YouGov - 45-53 (-8)
Morning Consult - 40-52 (-12) (which has Biden up 44-41)
CNN/SRSS 39-61 (-22)
Even a new poll from right leaning Redfield & Wilton today has it -8. The CNN poll feels like an outlier (all polls can be found on 538).
- Two pods I recorded this week have been released today. The first is with Reed Galen of the Lincoln Project. The second is with former Republican Congressman Joe Walsh. In each I go deep on current polling and why I would much rather be us than them in each. Watch, listen, enjoy.
- Here’s the election data I am most interested in right now:
Democrats have averaged 51% of the vote over the last 4 Presidential elections, our best showing over 4 elections since FDR’s Presidency.
Democrats have won more votes in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of any political party in US history.
In a “red wave” year, 2022, Democrats gained ground from 2020 in 7 key battlegrounds: AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA. We also picked up 4 state legislative chambers, 2 governorships, and 1 US Senate seat. As we’ve written 2022 was not a single nationalized election, but really two elections - a bluer election in the battleground where we gained, and a redder election outside where we did not. We’ve seen this strong Dem performance continue into 2023 with impressive wins in CO, FL, OH, PA and WI.
Democrats are having their best run in the Southwest since the 1940s and 50s. In 2004 Bush won AZ, CO, NM, NV, Rs controlled 5 of their 8 Senate seats, 14 of their 21 House seats. In 2020 Biden was the first Democratic President to win all 4 of these states in a single election since FDR, Today Rs control none of those 8 Senate seats and we control 14 of 24 House seats there.
Can we get to 55% nationally in 2024? I think so.
Georgia Grand Jury Recommended Senator Lindsay Graham for Prosecution (link) - Slowly, ever so slowly, the gravity of what’s in front of us is becoming more evident. In 2020 and 2021, one of our two political parties tried to overturn an American Presidential election and end American democracy. It was arguably the most significant threat to our democracy in our history. The conspiracy involved hundreds of Republican leaders across the country. Over 1,000 people have already been prosecuted successfully, some receiving decades of jail time. The Party of Lincoln and Reagan will now be, forever, the party which tried to end American democracy too.
The leader of that conspiracy has been charged, and despite his assault on our political system, is almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee for President next year. There can be little doubt that now that Trump winning the election next year will end the almost 250 year American democratic experiment - and it is important that we say so, forcefully, every chance we get.
A related post from Heather Cox Richardson this morning:
Today, at the initiative of the George W. Bush Institute, U.S. presidential foundations and centers for thirteen presidents since Herbert Hoover released a statement expressing concern about the health of American democracy. The statement notes that while the diverse population of the United States means we have a range of backgrounds and beliefs, “democracy holds us together. We are a country rooted in the rule of law, where the protection of the rights of all people is paramount.”
“Americans have a strong interest in supporting democratic movements and respect for human rights around the world because free societies elsewhere contribute to our own security and prosperity here at home,” the statement reads. “But that interest is undermined when others see our own house in disarray.” Without mentioning names, it called on elected officials to restore trust in public service by governing effectively “in ways that deliver for the American people.” “The rest of us must engage in civil dialogue,” it said, “respect democratic institutions and rights; uphold safe, secure, and accessible elections; and contribute to local, state, or national improvement.”
Traditionally, ex-presidents do not comment on politics, and this extraordinary effort is the first time presidential centers have commented on them. Because this step is unprecedented the Eisenhower Foundation chose not to sign, although it commended the defense of democracy. But the centers for Hoover, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry S. Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Baines Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all did.
That the executive director of the George W. Bush Institute felt obliged to take a step that is a veiled critique of today’s Republican Party—Bush’s party—is a sign of how deep concern over our democracy runs. David Kramer, the Bush Institute’s executive director, said the statement was intended to remind Americans that democracy cannot be taken for granted and to send “a positive message reminding us of who we are and also reminding us that when we are in disarray, when we’re at loggerheads, people overseas are also looking at us and wondering what’s going on.”
David Brooks on Biden’s Economic Success - From his new NYT column, The American Renaissance Is Already at Hand:
The second lesson I draw is that Bidenomics is working — big time. President Biden promised to help America outcompete authoritarian China and to heal some of the economic divides at home. Both those goals are being achieved.
According to the Treasury Department, over 80 percent of the investment made through the Inflation Reduction Act is going to counties with college graduation rates lower than the national average. Nearly 90 percent of investments are being made in counties with below-average weekly wages.
I know many of you think Biden is too old, but I’d vote for a 100-year-old who could keep delivering results like that.
Keep working hard all - Simon