California is the largest state in the country and it allows people to vote up until election day by mail. I'm not sure how you can make it go any faster than curtailing people from voting by mail on election day, which I disagree with. Large states like Texas, Florida and New York would probably experience the same phenomenon if they had similar election rules to California.
I too have been wondering if any of T's cabinet picks from Congress present an opportunity to flip a seat (or more). However, these all seem to be solidly red districts. That said, there will likely be a gap between when these congresspeople have to resign from their current seats and when their replacements are elected (or selected). So that will make the GOP's majority in the House even slimmer, if even temporarily.
Senate leadership vote 29-24. Do we know who got the 24 votes? I thought there were three Senatores in the running - Thune, Cornyn and Scott. Did it ultimately come down to Thune vs. Cornyn? or Thune vs. Scott?
Huge relief! Not least the fact that Scott got only one-quarter of the vote and was eliminated first. This gives us some hope that the Senate leadership and the Republican majority will not be entirely subservient to Trump.
Cornyn got 24 votes. This was the second round of voting. Scott was dropped in the first round and came in third. So that is a good thing! I still can't wrap my head around people voting for a billionaire that stole from medicare and paid a billion dollar fine with no jail time! At least he will not lead the senate!
It’s their government now. They’re going to own every coming catastrophe. Cold comfort but remember how this worked out for them in Bush’s second term.
Hegseth? My first reaction was, “ never heard of him.” As I have learned more, I am embarrassed he is from my home state of MN. Then I realized I have actually heard of him as he ran for US Senate in 2012 but apparently did not make it past the primary. So the joke of a nominee was sent packing from MN 12 years ago and somehow ended up in the bowels of Fox News, only to emerge now from the slime and back into our lives. Now Gaetz as AG and Tulsi as DNC? May fate spare us all.
That's why it's important that more reasonable Republicans stand up for our country and refuse to confirm nominations of individuals who lack the experience and expertise required for their Cabinet position. Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense.
I wonder if there are thoughts about other kinds of social groupings apart from media and internet.
One thing that Republicans have, especially in rural areas, are church groups that I think often push a political message. Not that Democrats do not go to church, many do, but I think there is overwhelming evidence that at least Christian churches of all different types tend to be conservative and Republican.
What do we have? What could we build? It used to be I think that unions formed a social network that was largely Democratic. Now at least voting patterns are less Democratic, and unions are perhaps strengthening but are not as strong as in the past.
Is this something we should think about? We just do not, as far as I can tell, have anything comparable to Sunday at church, especially in rural areas.
I think that is right. That is the one place which is obvious and we need to build it out as a power base and a social network. I was wondering if there are other ideas people might have.
In my small town here in Southern NJ, we still have clubs like the Moose, Elks and Rotary. I know they are mostly populated by folks that lean conservative, but one of my Dem friends and her husband really love the Elks club in town and have invited my husband and I to come with them tomorrow evening. The ladies will be having a book club meeting and the guys will be watching the Eagles football game. We are planning to go. I think it’s at least a start at getting more involved in the community and maybe hearing different perspectives. My friend swears they don’t talk politics! I also attend a very small, rural Presbyterian Church with many conservative members, and somehow we manage to get along. Politics are not preached from our pulpit, thank God. My hope is always that if people get to know some actual Democrats, they will see we’re not the satanic pedophiles they imagine. 🤞
Do you have any thoughts on how we can be clearer that our opposition to a Christian Nationalist agenda is NOT opposition to Christianity? I had an experience with a Christian woman who had no interest in legislating her beliefs but believed Democrats hated her. It seemed to me that was a big part of what had pushed her rightward. I think that sometimes our anger at the Christian Nationalist agenda is perceived as anti-Christian. Is there a way to promote condemnation of Christian Nationalism from people of faith like this: https://youtu.be/Blph_2RSBno
I don't know if some would believe numbers from long-respected research groups, but Pew, e.g., has an easy-to-find graph showing that 63% of Dems are Christian, independents/undeclared are 65% Christian, and--large gap--82% of Republicans are. So maybe some folks would believe they can assume the majority of Dems are Christians?...It reminds me of when a woman at a McCain rally said Obama was a nefarious secret Muslim, and McCain deflected her and defended Obama. Those were the days. Of course evangelicals/fundamentalists may say, Well, those quieter (my characterization) churches are not proper Christians, are a front, or some such. Sigh. Raised very Catholic here, 16 years of Catholic education, and this situation depresses me so much. How far the tenets of these churches and their stoking of baseless paranoia have gone is so disturbing. Far, far from the Christianity I learned.
I’ll tell you that it’s very hard to have any political conversations in our church right now. Any criticism of the evangelical/fundamentalist perspective, which in my opinion has alienated wide swaths of Gen Z from religion of any kind, is perceived as an attack on Jesus, or The Bible, etc. My church is a mix of very “conservative” Christians and others, like me, who believe Jesus was a radical progressive! It’s not easy when you barely speak the same language.
At least in the African-American community, the church has been a critical site for community building and mobilization. Senator Raphael Warnock (D.GA)is the senior pastor of Epenezer Baptist Church , where Dr. Martin Luther King was co-pastor with his father.
We need to always be clear it is Christian Nationalism we oppose, not Christianity. I think many on "our side" muddle the "messaging" in a way that is received as anti-Christian.
I completely agree with you. Dems are missing out on the faith voters. And I'm not sure that Dem strategists even understand the depth of that segment--because I never hear them refer to it. Lots of people stay in the R party--Putinesque as it is--because they don't hear about faith in the Dem coalition. If want to build that, need to really amplify it to attract people of faith who vote Democratic.
Yes. We need to figure this out. But my point was not just faith, because we probably won't outmatch them there (but we should do what we can), but what other things might there be. Unions is one thing.
That's because protestant Christianity, especially in the south and rural areas, does not like Catholicism. They don't understand that it is a Christian religion, they don't trust is and they don't see that it was THE Christian religion before Martin Luther led the revolution to change the church.
That's because protestant Christianity, especially in the south and rural areas, does not like Catholicism. They don't understand that it is a Christian religion, they don't trust it, and they don't see that it was THE Christian religion before Martin Luther led the revolution to change the church.
Sigh... I guess the problem with indoctrination is that built into it are defenses against letting in anything that could conceivably challenge the indoctrination. I live in hope that trying to connect through our common humanity is nevertheless worthwhile.
Crypto is the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. And possibly the worst part of it is that it is generates large amounts of greenhouse gases.
At a minimum they should be taxed for destroying the environment. It is going to destroy the economy when it eventually collapses and also by destroying the environment, or contributing to it.
Six years ago I argued that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies served no useful purpose, that their market value rested on nothing but “technobabble and libertarian derp.” I stand by that judgment, which has actually been reinforced by the passage of time.
But I didn’t foresee how big a deal crypto would nonetheless become — not because it would fulfill its promise of replacing conventional money, which it hasn’t and never will, but because it has become a powerful force that is, among other things, warping our politics.
He also said the growth of the Internet would slow drastically and by 2005 people would run out things to say to each other... and won't have any more impact than fax machines.
So, not sure he is the best go-to on the intersection of technology and economy :-) :-)
That could be. But I don't see that anyone has actually demonstrated a use for crypto. I think he's right in that it will never replace currencies. And the environmental impact is undeniable.
By now, if you can't point to or even describe a benefit, it seems very likely there isn't one.
Here's possibly one of the more disturbing lines from Krugman:
Trump has promised to turn America into a “Bitcoin superpower,” which apparently means having the government buy a lot of Bitcoin.
Now, imagine this happens. It isn't very far down the road before large-scale institutional investors buy bitcoin. Governments might be next. Then the techbros who helped Trump get elected get absurdly rich. The current valuation which I guess is $2 trillion will go up. But at some point this pyramid scheme ends, and there will be a massive financial collapse.
An essentially unregulated financial market which doesn't involve investing in anything real is going to eventually blow up and cause an economic collapse if it gets large enough.
Imagine instead of buying crypto people invested in REAL things, maybe things that help the environment instead of destroy it. At a bare minimum, all of the $$$ that are going to buy crypto represent $$$ which could have been put to real use in creating jobs and things.
I suppose the $$$ disappear when someone buys crypto, and does get invested, but at some point crypto will collapse, and the idiotic small investors will lose and the techbros will win.
I have no idea what cryptocurrency is or how it works. Guess I have some research to do. But from what I hear, it sounds like a dream built on nothing tangible. No goods, no services, nada. Since I'm not a tech bro I'm out of the loop. Maybe I should invest and get insanely rich in the next 30 days and then sell it off before it collapses. (Joking; I know nothing about it, as I said.)
I live in Oregon as well. The reason Democrats keep overperforming here is the GOP in the state is completely crazy. The past two democratic governors had low approvals, yet the GOP thought it was a great idea to push a woman who wanted to get rid of abortion in the last gubernatorial election. The minority Republican leader of the Oregon State House resigned the other day because he basically said the GOP is lost in the state.
We might be so late but we’re not too late - we’re just less loud and less connected….and now we know how much that cost us this year. Good - I want to know! I’ll put my trust in the Democratic Party every single time to figure out a true path forward because that’s where all the smartypants hang out.
I listen to a lot of the right wing rage machine and, believe you me, there is very real angst over there about the fact that Trump’s current crop of critters have a lot of Democrats and former Democrats and is chockablock with neocons.
Frankly, considering the global headwinds Harris was up against, she damn near pulled off a victory. I know we’re all hyper-ventilating now, but feck those liars - they are going to rue the day they ever re-elected that pig.
I have to say, I have been demoralized, sad, angry and not on social media except for Hopium and Tom Bonier when he posts a substack (which is rare). I listened to the video Simon posted while on a walk this morning. I found myself getting fired up. Everything they said resonated. Am I back 100%? No but I will get there if the DNC and other power structures listen. We aren't just small donors. Donating $10, $15, $100 is a lot for most of us. I really appreciated Simon giving us his list and explaining why it was small. Oh and for God's sake, I hope they stop with the donation emails and texts.
My sadness and anxiety comes in waves (usually b/c I read an anxious comment on social media), but then I, too, read Simon or Ruth Ben-Ghiat and I realize that, just with the election, there are 1,000's of patriotic Americans who are determined to save our democracy.
My sadness and anxiety, also, comes in waves. Today was the first day, I actually listened when a friend wanted to tell me about Trump's choices for his, barf, cabinet. I actually laughed before I got angry again. Progress?
Here is what I learned this morning from my "Subscribers Only" newsletter from Jennifer Rubin at WaPo "Not all votes have been counted. Once millions of ballots from California and elsewhere are tabulated, we can determine where the drop-off occurred. It may be that in noncompetitive states, Democrats didn’t bother to show up. This would be an indictment of the electoral college; it would also signal a challenge for Democrats to maintain engagement even in states where the presidential race is not competitive."
Jennifer did not break down by state the "millions of ballots from California and elsewhere" that have not been counted. Per Simon, there are still Congressional races to be called in California, so maybe there is some Hopium. (My WaPo subscription does not expire until May 2025 but Jennifer is the only journalist I read there via her email notifications.)
A month before Election Day, everyone in California receives a ballot in the mail. Voters can then return them to drop boxes, through the mail or can go to a vote center to return them or to register and vote. If you're returning them via USPS, they need to be postmarked by Election Day (Nov 5) and received by Nov 12 in order to be counted. Also, most (if not all) ballots need to have their signatures verified before counting. That's what's taking so long: That California makes voting easy, convenient and accurate.
Same with my subscription. I read JR, Dana Milbank, Eugene Robinson, Perry Bacon Jr. There are no journalism jobs so I'm guessing that's why they are all staying and can inject truth into other completely compromised paper. Marc Thiessen must also be paid by the Kremlin.
I watched "Jen Rubin's Green Room" this morning. She hadn't been on for several days, so I was glad to see her back. She broke her wrist! That's what kept her laying low for a week or so. But she said something funny ( and true) that made me laugh out loud. (Loosly quoted here. "You want to name a dog killer as head of Department of Homeland Security? Fine. You want to put "Little Marco" in charge of the State Department? Fine. These people will fuck it up." She also broached subjects similar to what Simon and Joe Trippi were discussing in this video. I highly recommend her.
I firmly believe blue states should not be ignored. We are more than just about the presidency. Heck, it's a built in base! Why not also invest in blue states to make sure we have a shot at every House seat, state legislatures, etc.? Guess what happens to blue states that are ignored? Eventually, over time, they turn into battle states.
I’ve ordered my messaging t-shirt for repro rights and will start wearing ASAP here in Florida where Amend 4 passed with 57% while Trump won with 55%.Plan to have many meaningful convos between now and ‘26.Still lots of disinfo about our current draconian law so looking forward to having discussions while out in the community….and not at an unwelcoming front door.👚🛒
NC is like Georgia - better organized now with NOTHING but upsides for the Democratic Party to start touching voters. If we can turn GA and NC a steady light blue this next decade (and I believe to the bottom of my heart that we can), we’re going to be okay.
I’ve lived in an authoritarian-curious South my entire life, but I haven’t given up on us yet!
"an authoritarian-curious South" is going to be one of my favorite terms from now on. I grew up in the South, and lived there half my life (GA, NC, AL), so I hear you.
I was born in VA, raised in SC, university in TN and have lived in GA/SC since college. Hell, my great-great grandfather was Secretary of the Confederacy at the ass-end of the War. The South still lives in that War.
These are MY people and I know both sides of them. I think I could talk to them in a networked way, so Simon & Joe & David R & Tara Mc (etc) have set my imagination alight. We all have a LOT more to give to this nation than money.
Thune is about the best of a bad choice. He's not MAGA and is more traditionalist. I also have hopes that Murkowksi and Cassidy will be checks to some of Trump's worst impulses with their disapproval of the choice for Secretary of Defense. If they can get Collins and the new moderate Senator from Utah John Curtis on board, then maybe, just maybe, we'll get through this dark time.
100%. Thune doesn’t give me a heart-attack. I keep praying that some combination of Tillis and Ernst and Cassidy will help Collins & Murkowski hold some semblance of a line.
Methinks we are now dependent on the GOP to protect us against the Orange Felon. Not very comforting I know. But very grateful that it’s Thune over Scott (and Cornyn).
Couldn't agree more that we Dems need better communication -- Bill Clinton's Rapid Response team comes to mind. We need someone to do that, someone to quickly counter the lies MAGA produces and knock them down. My nominee is.....Pete Buttigieg with his own podcast! He is one of our premier communicators, plus he's knowledgeable (i.e., speaks the truth), mentally nimble and very likable. His show would definitely produce many, many clips that could easily go viral on social media. Think about it. (Kamala is also in this category, but I doubt she'd want to have a podcast.)
Update on Alaska House race: with more votes coming in, Nick Begich's lead continues to drop. He is further away from 50% than closer to it. It's looking more and more like it might go to rank choice voting, which could help Mary Peltola considerably.
Trumpeting income and inflation numbers like these are why we lost. A 1.4% net gain in income over inflation divided by 12 months is 0.16% a month. Not exactly the counter punch we need to combat the fire hose of lies coming from the other side. And barely noticeable by average people anyway.
Subjectively this is not the way people I know experience or process the economy. They are much more focused on the cost of specific items or their overall expense relative to disposable income. Objectively I divided the net gain of 1.4% by 12 months and arrived at 0.16% increase. We know how the Maga noise machine works. A stat like this stands no chance of landing and is easily tagged as further proof that Dems are out of touch. We should be able to disagree about things like this. That’s how we’ll retool how we communicate. Something I know we agree is sorely needed.
There was inflation. We can’t say there wasn’t. In reality, the US managed inflation better than anyone in the world and wage gains outpaced inflation for most Americans. This is important information.
The media was hell-bent on painting Biden as "bad on the economy" as soon as he was sworn in. Any good news was immediately countered with, "but what about [insert type of goods or services] being expensive?" Pair that with rampant anti-immigrant propaganda and trump's ability to bring out his base, and I'm not sure what could have been done. It will be interesting to see what happens once 2028 happens and he's no longer in office.
I agree with you here. These stats are unlikely to be highly effective, although they should be presented and shared. It is very important that wages grew faster than inflation, and we shouldn't hide it. I don't think it's why we lost, but I think it can be coupled with a strong core message (see below).
I think the best we could have done was what VP Harris did. She went after big corporations for keeping prices high so they could report record profits (not just strong profits-- record profits) to their shareholders. This is a very effective message, especially when she coupled it with "Trump wants to reward them for doing this to you, I want to hold them accountable and make them pay their fair share".
I really think her message was spot-on. She just didn't have enough time for it to break through to enough people.
But I would also add that every economist knew that the measures taken (by both the Trump and Biden administrations) when unemployment was at about 15% to put money in peoples pockets were going to be inflationary--but necessary.
With a trusted communications network that reaches the majority of the nation and effective education by the administration (ideally from the President) letting people know what to expect and why these measures are necessary initially and then following up frequently showing the improvement in real time, this could have have been like watching a comeback victory in sports. Wages 1.4% higher would be like a last-minute field goal with an expectation for larger margins of victory going forward.
This was a grocery store election. Inflation hurt core democratic voters. Anecdotally, this hurt turnout in blue counties in GA.
However, I was asked by republican friend was I better now than four years ago? He was shocked when I told him yes absolutely! I literally doubled my personal wealth over the last four years
We can pick apart the content of messaging all day long, but it doesn’t make any difference if there’s no network to get the message out there.
We have to get past the idea that if we just have a good message, we’ll get earned media for it and the people will hear about it and respond. 99.9% of existing media organizations (a) don’t want to do this for us and (b) don’t have the reach anyway.
We have to build out the messaging networks ourselves. With a good network, it doesn’t matter so much what the message is. Repeat it enough and people believe it’s good.
Agreed that the network is the priority. Also, believe that the messaging is extremely important. See George Lakoff The Little Blue Book: The Essential Guide to Thinking and Talking Democratic https://george-lakoff.com/books/the-little-blue-book/
John Avlon’s post on The Bulwark supports a different approach…”But the biggest driver of voter frustration was the middle-class squeeze that has been going on for decades and is getting worse. Voters sense that families and small businesses that work hard and play by the rules can no longer get ahead in a system that seems rigged to benefit billionaires and big corporations. This doesn’t translate to flashy TV packages or clickbait headlines, but it is the grinding fact of most folks’ daily lives.”
There's probably a lot there. Which is why I think the biggest issue was VP Harris's not having enough time to get her message past the noise and to enough voters. Her campaign addressed exactly what the Bulwark is talking about. Her speeches, the debate, and the ads I saw were all:
-Strengthening the middle class with tax cuts, expanding child tax credits, improving affordability
-Making billionaires pay their fare share to support initiatives that help the middle class
-Providing loans/grants to small businesses, and increasing the small business tax deduction to $50k (from $5k)
-Small business is the backbone of the economy
-People are just getting by, I want to help them get ahead
I think she had almost the perfect message, it just didn't get out far enough, which I think was because of time.
Agree-but wonder what messaging was directed towards very low income voters. Tax cuts do not matter to people who earn very little and have low taxes. Likewise buying houses are starting a small business for many people is out of reach even with the incentives.
California is the largest state in the country and it allows people to vote up until election day by mail. I'm not sure how you can make it go any faster than curtailing people from voting by mail on election day, which I disagree with. Large states like Texas, Florida and New York would probably experience the same phenomenon if they had similar election rules to California.
I too have been wondering if any of T's cabinet picks from Congress present an opportunity to flip a seat (or more). However, these all seem to be solidly red districts. That said, there will likely be a gap between when these congresspeople have to resign from their current seats and when their replacements are elected (or selected). So that will make the GOP's majority in the House even slimmer, if even temporarily.
Abby I have refunded your subscription and banned you permanently from the platform for this over the top and ridiculous comment. Thank you. S
Now you make me wish I had seen it! :D
Senate leadership vote 29-24. Do we know who got the 24 votes? I thought there were three Senatores in the running - Thune, Cornyn and Scott. Did it ultimately come down to Thune vs. Cornyn? or Thune vs. Scott?
Don't know for sure but it must be Scott. Several people in Trump's orbit were pushing Scott.
I read (sorry don't have the link) that Scott was the first one out and then it was Thune v Cornyn. That was the 29-24 vote.
Yes--Scott did not have anything close to a majority.
Scott received a mere 13 votes, only one-quarter of the GOP caucus.
Here's the link with the detail I discussed. Scott did lose first and then it was 29-24 Thune vs. Cornyn
https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/latest/senate-majority-leader-john-thune-republican-vote-congress-rcna179937
Huge relief! Not least the fact that Scott got only one-quarter of the vote and was eliminated first. This gives us some hope that the Senate leadership and the Republican majority will not be entirely subservient to Trump.
Agree. This is the less bad option.
I am getting really old. Possibly really tired with panic attacks at night. Scott???My brain first thought Scott Dworkin!!! Rick Scott it is.
Okay you made me laugh. Scott Dworkin would be good but alas no not Scott Dworkin 😂
Thanks, all. I found the answer to my question online. Should have looked there first. Scott got the fewest votes and was eliminated on the first round. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/13/john-thune-senate-republican-leader-00189305
It's interesting, it might be that they drew the line with Trump at least on this one thing.
Unfortunately, they will allow recess appointments.
Do you know that? I haven't heard that. There will be some but all of them?
Everybody in leadership agreed. Shame on them. Just heard that CBS projects that they will win the House as well. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
Thank God. Not that I am enamored of Thune, but at least that criminal Scott didn't get the position!
Cornyn got 24 votes. This was the second round of voting. Scott was dropped in the first round and came in third. So that is a good thing! I still can't wrap my head around people voting for a billionaire that stole from medicare and paid a billion dollar fine with no jail time! At least he will not lead the senate!
It is really hard for me to believe Hegseth will be confirmed. Will this be a filibuster?
I'm hoping that there will be enough reasonable Republican Senators to shoot this nomination down.
The Republicans will agree to recess appointments, so there will be no shooting down Trump's choices.
We don't know that yet. And we need to call our senators and tell them to FIGHT THAT SH*T! No compliance in advance (tm).
It’s their government now. They’re going to own every coming catastrophe. Cold comfort but remember how this worked out for them in Bush’s second term.
And the D's will win, straighten everything out and get rewarded by being voted out it's happened in my town as well.
That would be "obeying in advance," and it would be a step closer to tyranny. See Timothy Snyder on the concept of obeying in advance.
Don't need to. Have been handing out copies of that book since it came out during Trump part 1.
Are there any reasonable Republicans still in office?
Let them have Hegseth. He's way in over his head. That's fine.
We have to stop the worst abuses, but shine a light on the incompetence and corruption, which will be staggering.
Then we have to focus on 2026 which is more than enough time for this Trump thing to go fully tits up.
I hope so. The problem is (as Joe and SImon are discussing) we have lost - at least for the time being - the info wars.
Yeah well they have networks to put lipstick on the pig, but it will still be a pig.
Hegseth? My first reaction was, “ never heard of him.” As I have learned more, I am embarrassed he is from my home state of MN. Then I realized I have actually heard of him as he ran for US Senate in 2012 but apparently did not make it past the primary. So the joke of a nominee was sent packing from MN 12 years ago and somehow ended up in the bowels of Fox News, only to emerge now from the slime and back into our lives. Now Gaetz as AG and Tulsi as DNC? May fate spare us all.
Yeah I'm from MN originally too. I didn't know who he is either. My dad used to have a cabin in Forest Lake that he rented out.
(I think) Presidential appointments require only a simple majority.
https://presidentialtransition.org/appointee-resources/ready-to-serve-prospective-appointees/senate-confirmed-positions/
That's why it's important that more reasonable Republicans stand up for our country and refuse to confirm nominations of individuals who lack the experience and expertise required for their Cabinet position. Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense.
Well with "reasonable" republicans like Susan Collins....
Yeah, she hasn't always shone enough backbone.
I wonder if there are thoughts about other kinds of social groupings apart from media and internet.
One thing that Republicans have, especially in rural areas, are church groups that I think often push a political message. Not that Democrats do not go to church, many do, but I think there is overwhelming evidence that at least Christian churches of all different types tend to be conservative and Republican.
What do we have? What could we build? It used to be I think that unions formed a social network that was largely Democratic. Now at least voting patterns are less Democratic, and unions are perhaps strengthening but are not as strong as in the past.
Is this something we should think about? We just do not, as far as I can tell, have anything comparable to Sunday at church, especially in rural areas.
I think we need to continue to build on labor support. Biden had a lot of union support. Passing legislation supportive of workers is the way to go.
I think that is right. That is the one place which is obvious and we need to build it out as a power base and a social network. I was wondering if there are other ideas people might have.
In my small town here in Southern NJ, we still have clubs like the Moose, Elks and Rotary. I know they are mostly populated by folks that lean conservative, but one of my Dem friends and her husband really love the Elks club in town and have invited my husband and I to come with them tomorrow evening. The ladies will be having a book club meeting and the guys will be watching the Eagles football game. We are planning to go. I think it’s at least a start at getting more involved in the community and maybe hearing different perspectives. My friend swears they don’t talk politics! I also attend a very small, rural Presbyterian Church with many conservative members, and somehow we manage to get along. Politics are not preached from our pulpit, thank God. My hope is always that if people get to know some actual Democrats, they will see we’re not the satanic pedophiles they imagine. 🤞
But their radio stations etc will describe us as such. I'm a former evangelical and I know that to be true!
I think those are important. I suppose even if there isn't a majority of Democrats, at least some kind of moderation might occur.
Do you have any thoughts on how we can be clearer that our opposition to a Christian Nationalist agenda is NOT opposition to Christianity? I had an experience with a Christian woman who had no interest in legislating her beliefs but believed Democrats hated her. It seemed to me that was a big part of what had pushed her rightward. I think that sometimes our anger at the Christian Nationalist agenda is perceived as anti-Christian. Is there a way to promote condemnation of Christian Nationalism from people of faith like this: https://youtu.be/Blph_2RSBno
I don't know if some would believe numbers from long-respected research groups, but Pew, e.g., has an easy-to-find graph showing that 63% of Dems are Christian, independents/undeclared are 65% Christian, and--large gap--82% of Republicans are. So maybe some folks would believe they can assume the majority of Dems are Christians?...It reminds me of when a woman at a McCain rally said Obama was a nefarious secret Muslim, and McCain deflected her and defended Obama. Those were the days. Of course evangelicals/fundamentalists may say, Well, those quieter (my characterization) churches are not proper Christians, are a front, or some such. Sigh. Raised very Catholic here, 16 years of Catholic education, and this situation depresses me so much. How far the tenets of these churches and their stoking of baseless paranoia have gone is so disturbing. Far, far from the Christianity I learned.
I’ll tell you that it’s very hard to have any political conversations in our church right now. Any criticism of the evangelical/fundamentalist perspective, which in my opinion has alienated wide swaths of Gen Z from religion of any kind, is perceived as an attack on Jesus, or The Bible, etc. My church is a mix of very “conservative” Christians and others, like me, who believe Jesus was a radical progressive! It’s not easy when you barely speak the same language.
At least in the African-American community, the church has been a critical site for community building and mobilization. Senator Raphael Warnock (D.GA)is the senior pastor of Epenezer Baptist Church , where Dr. Martin Luther King was co-pastor with his father.
Yes that is certainly true. I know that is the case and it is great.
Just on a numbers basis, those things are dwarfed by all of the other things I mentioned.
We need more of things like that on our side.
Yes for sure. But white so-called Christians, not at all.
We need to always be clear it is Christian Nationalism we oppose, not Christianity. I think many on "our side" muddle the "messaging" in a way that is received as anti-Christian.
I completely agree with you. Dems are missing out on the faith voters. And I'm not sure that Dem strategists even understand the depth of that segment--because I never hear them refer to it. Lots of people stay in the R party--Putinesque as it is--because they don't hear about faith in the Dem coalition. If want to build that, need to really amplify it to attract people of faith who vote Democratic.
Yes. We need to figure this out. But my point was not just faith, because we probably won't outmatch them there (but we should do what we can), but what other things might there be. Unions is one thing.
Well Biden is a devout Catholic and they mocked and vilified him. Sigh
That's because protestant Christianity, especially in the south and rural areas, does not like Catholicism. They don't understand that it is a Christian religion, they don't trust is and they don't see that it was THE Christian religion before Martin Luther led the revolution to change the church.
That's because protestant Christianity, especially in the south and rural areas, does not like Catholicism. They don't understand that it is a Christian religion, they don't trust it, and they don't see that it was THE Christian religion before Martin Luther led the revolution to change the church.
And be clear that opposition to a christian nationalist agenda is not opposition to christianity. https://youtu.be/Blph_2RSBno
Well, in my time in that world, they think everyone except them are true believers or “evil” so can’t control how message is received.
Sigh... I guess the problem with indoctrination is that built into it are defenses against letting in anything that could conceivably challenge the indoctrination. I live in hope that trying to connect through our common humanity is nevertheless worthwhile.
Crypto is the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. And possibly the worst part of it is that it is generates large amounts of greenhouse gases.
At a minimum they should be taxed for destroying the environment. It is going to destroy the economy when it eventually collapses and also by destroying the environment, or contributing to it.
Wrong Wrong Wrong. Look up margot paez who considers herself a progressive bitcoiner. She's also a PhD candidate who has written a lot on this
Oh well that is convincing.
Yeah, I feel relieved.
Here's Paul Krugman who has a Nobel in economics:
Six years ago I argued that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies served no useful purpose, that their market value rested on nothing but “technobabble and libertarian derp.” I stand by that judgment, which has actually been reinforced by the passage of time.
But I didn’t foresee how big a deal crypto would nonetheless become — not because it would fulfill its promise of replacing conventional money, which it hasn’t and never will, but because it has become a powerful force that is, among other things, warping our politics.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/opinion/crypto-trump.html
He also said the growth of the Internet would slow drastically and by 2005 people would run out things to say to each other... and won't have any more impact than fax machines.
So, not sure he is the best go-to on the intersection of technology and economy :-) :-)
That could be. But I don't see that anyone has actually demonstrated a use for crypto. I think he's right in that it will never replace currencies. And the environmental impact is undeniable.
By now, if you can't point to or even describe a benefit, it seems very likely there isn't one.
Here's possibly one of the more disturbing lines from Krugman:
Trump has promised to turn America into a “Bitcoin superpower,” which apparently means having the government buy a lot of Bitcoin.
Now, imagine this happens. It isn't very far down the road before large-scale institutional investors buy bitcoin. Governments might be next. Then the techbros who helped Trump get elected get absurdly rich. The current valuation which I guess is $2 trillion will go up. But at some point this pyramid scheme ends, and there will be a massive financial collapse.
An essentially unregulated financial market which doesn't involve investing in anything real is going to eventually blow up and cause an economic collapse if it gets large enough.
Imagine instead of buying crypto people invested in REAL things, maybe things that help the environment instead of destroy it. At a bare minimum, all of the $$$ that are going to buy crypto represent $$$ which could have been put to real use in creating jobs and things.
I suppose the $$$ disappear when someone buys crypto, and does get invested, but at some point crypto will collapse, and the idiotic small investors will lose and the techbros will win.
Crypto is MLM for bros. Instead of pushing their friends to buy essential oils or whatever, they push their online acquaintances to bet on crypto.
I have no idea what cryptocurrency is or how it works. Guess I have some research to do. But from what I hear, it sounds like a dream built on nothing tangible. No goods, no services, nada. Since I'm not a tech bro I'm out of the loop. Maybe I should invest and get insanely rich in the next 30 days and then sell it off before it collapses. (Joking; I know nothing about it, as I said.)
Here in Oregon, the top of the ticket did even better than down ballot Democrats (who also did well). Ballots are still being counted, I believe.
I live in Oregon as well. The reason Democrats keep overperforming here is the GOP in the state is completely crazy. The past two democratic governors had low approvals, yet the GOP thought it was a great idea to push a woman who wanted to get rid of abortion in the last gubernatorial election. The minority Republican leader of the Oregon State House resigned the other day because he basically said the GOP is lost in the state.
They keep putting up these out to lunch ballot initiatives to secede and join Idaho. They are completely bonkers.
why don't they just, you know, actually move to WY then? 😂
The SW corner of Oregon is quite red.
Thank you for having Joe on. Such difficult times, especially since we now have a Fox News host put up to run the Secretary of Defense.
I really don't know how we compete with the massive misinformation network the right has built. We're so late.
WE CAN AND WE WILL. This is the HOPIUM chronicles. Hope and PLAN.
Oh come on. It's never too late.
We might be so late but we’re not too late - we’re just less loud and less connected….and now we know how much that cost us this year. Good - I want to know! I’ll put my trust in the Democratic Party every single time to figure out a true path forward because that’s where all the smartypants hang out.
I listen to a lot of the right wing rage machine and, believe you me, there is very real angst over there about the fact that Trump’s current crop of critters have a lot of Democrats and former Democrats and is chockablock with neocons.
Frankly, considering the global headwinds Harris was up against, she damn near pulled off a victory. I know we’re all hyper-ventilating now, but feck those liars - they are going to rue the day they ever re-elected that pig.
I hope you are right.
I have to say, I have been demoralized, sad, angry and not on social media except for Hopium and Tom Bonier when he posts a substack (which is rare). I listened to the video Simon posted while on a walk this morning. I found myself getting fired up. Everything they said resonated. Am I back 100%? No but I will get there if the DNC and other power structures listen. We aren't just small donors. Donating $10, $15, $100 is a lot for most of us. I really appreciated Simon giving us his list and explaining why it was small. Oh and for God's sake, I hope they stop with the donation emails and texts.
My sadness and anxiety comes in waves (usually b/c I read an anxious comment on social media), but then I, too, read Simon or Ruth Ben-Ghiat and I realize that, just with the election, there are 1,000's of patriotic Americans who are determined to save our democracy.
My sadness and anxiety, also, comes in waves. Today was the first day, I actually listened when a friend wanted to tell me about Trump's choices for his, barf, cabinet. I actually laughed before I got angry again. Progress?
Yes! Laughter is progress most definitely!
Thanks!
Millions🇺🇸🇺🇸
Here is what I learned this morning from my "Subscribers Only" newsletter from Jennifer Rubin at WaPo "Not all votes have been counted. Once millions of ballots from California and elsewhere are tabulated, we can determine where the drop-off occurred. It may be that in noncompetitive states, Democrats didn’t bother to show up. This would be an indictment of the electoral college; it would also signal a challenge for Democrats to maintain engagement even in states where the presidential race is not competitive."
Jennifer did not break down by state the "millions of ballots from California and elsewhere" that have not been counted. Per Simon, there are still Congressional races to be called in California, so maybe there is some Hopium. (My WaPo subscription does not expire until May 2025 but Jennifer is the only journalist I read there via her email notifications.)
A month before Election Day, everyone in California receives a ballot in the mail. Voters can then return them to drop boxes, through the mail or can go to a vote center to return them or to register and vote. If you're returning them via USPS, they need to be postmarked by Election Day (Nov 5) and received by Nov 12 in order to be counted. Also, most (if not all) ballots need to have their signatures verified before counting. That's what's taking so long: That California makes voting easy, convenient and accurate.
That, and there are 40 million people in the state, so it takes a long time to count up the votes as well.
You can also track your ballot very easily. You sign up and are notified when it is received and then when it is counted.
Same with my subscription. I read JR, Dana Milbank, Eugene Robinson, Perry Bacon Jr. There are no journalism jobs so I'm guessing that's why they are all staying and can inject truth into other completely compromised paper. Marc Thiessen must also be paid by the Kremlin.
I couldn't take it anymore. I cancelled my WA Post subscription. LA Times as well.
I cancelled but keep receiving it. Also cancelled Prime.
I watched "Jen Rubin's Green Room" this morning. She hadn't been on for several days, so I was glad to see her back. She broke her wrist! That's what kept her laying low for a week or so. But she said something funny ( and true) that made me laugh out loud. (Loosly quoted here. "You want to name a dog killer as head of Department of Homeland Security? Fine. You want to put "Little Marco" in charge of the State Department? Fine. These people will fuck it up." She also broached subjects similar to what Simon and Joe Trippi were discussing in this video. I highly recommend her.
is she on You Tube?
Yes, she is on YT.
Me too. My subscription expires in May 2025 and I continue to enjoy Jen.
I firmly believe blue states should not be ignored. We are more than just about the presidency. Heck, it's a built in base! Why not also invest in blue states to make sure we have a shot at every House seat, state legislatures, etc.? Guess what happens to blue states that are ignored? Eventually, over time, they turn into battle states.
I’ve ordered my messaging t-shirt for repro rights and will start wearing ASAP here in Florida where Amend 4 passed with 57% while Trump won with 55%.Plan to have many meaningful convos between now and ‘26.Still lots of disinfo about our current draconian law so looking forward to having discussions while out in the community….and not at an unwelcoming front door.👚🛒
We did this, y'all! We helped elect Jeff Jackson as NC AG! This is a BFD! https://youtu.be/iCYNdGTxWds?si=FP2Fd2JckHhMuTrC
Wow! That's great! I'm also glad that people voted in Josh Stein as governor.
NC is like Georgia - better organized now with NOTHING but upsides for the Democratic Party to start touching voters. If we can turn GA and NC a steady light blue this next decade (and I believe to the bottom of my heart that we can), we’re going to be okay.
I’ve lived in an authoritarian-curious South my entire life, but I haven’t given up on us yet!
"an authoritarian-curious South" is going to be one of my favorite terms from now on. I grew up in the South, and lived there half my life (GA, NC, AL), so I hear you.
I was born in VA, raised in SC, university in TN and have lived in GA/SC since college. Hell, my great-great grandfather was Secretary of the Confederacy at the ass-end of the War. The South still lives in that War.
These are MY people and I know both sides of them. I think I could talk to them in a networked way, so Simon & Joe & David R & Tara Mc (etc) have set my imagination alight. We all have a LOT more to give to this nation than money.
Go for it and and the power of the universe be with you girl!
A huge bright spot!
Thune is about the best of a bad choice. He's not MAGA and is more traditionalist. I also have hopes that Murkowksi and Cassidy will be checks to some of Trump's worst impulses with their disapproval of the choice for Secretary of Defense. If they can get Collins and the new moderate Senator from Utah John Curtis on board, then maybe, just maybe, we'll get through this dark time.
100%. Thune doesn’t give me a heart-attack. I keep praying that some combination of Tillis and Ernst and Cassidy will help Collins & Murkowski hold some semblance of a line.
Methinks we are now dependent on the GOP to protect us against the Orange Felon. Not very comforting I know. But very grateful that it’s Thune over Scott (and Cornyn).
Couldn't agree more that we Dems need better communication -- Bill Clinton's Rapid Response team comes to mind. We need someone to do that, someone to quickly counter the lies MAGA produces and knock them down. My nominee is.....Pete Buttigieg with his own podcast! He is one of our premier communicators, plus he's knowledgeable (i.e., speaks the truth), mentally nimble and very likable. His show would definitely produce many, many clips that could easily go viral on social media. Think about it. (Kamala is also in this category, but I doubt she'd want to have a podcast.)
Katie Porter pod breaking down issues. Wipe boards!
Pete is my favorite Democrat. He is a great " explainer" without demeaning the questioner.
50.1 against trump/for someone else vs 49.8 for trump…. He did not win the popular vote.
He won the popular vote, but he probably won't win a majority of it.
Millions of votes still to count. Let’s wait till it’s done.
Update on Alaska House race: with more votes coming in, Nick Begich's lead continues to drop. He is further away from 50% than closer to it. It's looking more and more like it might go to rank choice voting, which could help Mary Peltola considerably.
Trumpeting income and inflation numbers like these are why we lost. A 1.4% net gain in income over inflation divided by 12 months is 0.16% a month. Not exactly the counter punch we need to combat the fire hose of lies coming from the other side. And barely noticeable by average people anyway.
If I could dislike posts, I’d dislike this one.
1.4% is a huge yearly gain in real wages (when comparing nominal wage growth to inflation).
Short of lying like they do, what do you want instead?
Speaking strictly for myself, I’d like my paycheck to come twice as often.
/s
Prove it. If you think that is true, prove it. Show us data. Thank you.
Subjectively this is not the way people I know experience or process the economy. They are much more focused on the cost of specific items or their overall expense relative to disposable income. Objectively I divided the net gain of 1.4% by 12 months and arrived at 0.16% increase. We know how the Maga noise machine works. A stat like this stands no chance of landing and is easily tagged as further proof that Dems are out of touch. We should be able to disagree about things like this. That’s how we’ll retool how we communicate. Something I know we agree is sorely needed.
But short of lying, what do you propose?
There was inflation. We can’t say there wasn’t. In reality, the US managed inflation better than anyone in the world and wage gains outpaced inflation for most Americans. This is important information.
What should we have said instead?
The media was hell-bent on painting Biden as "bad on the economy" as soon as he was sworn in. Any good news was immediately countered with, "but what about [insert type of goods or services] being expensive?" Pair that with rampant anti-immigrant propaganda and trump's ability to bring out his base, and I'm not sure what could have been done. It will be interesting to see what happens once 2028 happens and he's no longer in office.
I agree with you here. These stats are unlikely to be highly effective, although they should be presented and shared. It is very important that wages grew faster than inflation, and we shouldn't hide it. I don't think it's why we lost, but I think it can be coupled with a strong core message (see below).
I think the best we could have done was what VP Harris did. She went after big corporations for keeping prices high so they could report record profits (not just strong profits-- record profits) to their shareholders. This is a very effective message, especially when she coupled it with "Trump wants to reward them for doing this to you, I want to hold them accountable and make them pay their fair share".
I really think her message was spot-on. She just didn't have enough time for it to break through to enough people.
I totally agree,
But I would also add that every economist knew that the measures taken (by both the Trump and Biden administrations) when unemployment was at about 15% to put money in peoples pockets were going to be inflationary--but necessary.
With a trusted communications network that reaches the majority of the nation and effective education by the administration (ideally from the President) letting people know what to expect and why these measures are necessary initially and then following up frequently showing the improvement in real time, this could have have been like watching a comeback victory in sports. Wages 1.4% higher would be like a last-minute field goal with an expectation for larger margins of victory going forward.
This was a grocery store election. Inflation hurt core democratic voters. Anecdotally, this hurt turnout in blue counties in GA.
However, I was asked by republican friend was I better now than four years ago? He was shocked when I told him yes absolutely! I literally doubled my personal wealth over the last four years
Yep, same here.
If the Rs were smart, they would just continue the economic policies of the Biden administration and they would be well set for reelection in 4 years.
Of course they will do something to really F things up. I have the feeling crypto might be their "kryptonite". We'll see.
We can pick apart the content of messaging all day long, but it doesn’t make any difference if there’s no network to get the message out there.
We have to get past the idea that if we just have a good message, we’ll get earned media for it and the people will hear about it and respond. 99.9% of existing media organizations (a) don’t want to do this for us and (b) don’t have the reach anyway.
We have to build out the messaging networks ourselves. With a good network, it doesn’t matter so much what the message is. Repeat it enough and people believe it’s good.
Agreed that the network is the priority. Also, believe that the messaging is extremely important. See George Lakoff The Little Blue Book: The Essential Guide to Thinking and Talking Democratic https://george-lakoff.com/books/the-little-blue-book/
Lakoff's 2016 Understanding Trump holds up fairly well too -- both the descriptions of DT factions and the short run down of ways we can do better: https://press.uchicago.edu/books/excerpt/2016/lakoff_trump.html
John Avlon’s post on The Bulwark supports a different approach…”But the biggest driver of voter frustration was the middle-class squeeze that has been going on for decades and is getting worse. Voters sense that families and small businesses that work hard and play by the rules can no longer get ahead in a system that seems rigged to benefit billionaires and big corporations. This doesn’t translate to flashy TV packages or clickbait headlines, but it is the grinding fact of most folks’ daily lives.”
There's probably a lot there. Which is why I think the biggest issue was VP Harris's not having enough time to get her message past the noise and to enough voters. Her campaign addressed exactly what the Bulwark is talking about. Her speeches, the debate, and the ads I saw were all:
-Strengthening the middle class with tax cuts, expanding child tax credits, improving affordability
-Making billionaires pay their fare share to support initiatives that help the middle class
-Providing loans/grants to small businesses, and increasing the small business tax deduction to $50k (from $5k)
-Small business is the backbone of the economy
-People are just getting by, I want to help them get ahead
I think she had almost the perfect message, it just didn't get out far enough, which I think was because of time.
Agree-but wonder what messaging was directed towards very low income voters. Tax cuts do not matter to people who earn very little and have low taxes. Likewise buying houses are starting a small business for many people is out of reach even with the incentives.
So you vote for the millionaires and billionaires who are holding you back?
I agree half the time. I think it’s a lot harder to sway people when the pushed idea is a positive. Human nature, etc.